Red Shirts Back in Bangkok - What's Happening?

With so many countries around the world, it is hard to keep the various political parties and leaders straight.  Things have been heating up in Thailand for several years now.  While the Thai king has been revered in most of the country (in the far south where there is a larger Muslim population in this mostly Buddhist country, he's less respected), he is the longest reigning monarch in the world and his health has become a question.  While there is a Princess who has followed her father's footsteps and tirelessly worked to help poor Thais, she is not in line for succession and her brother is not held in the high esteem as their father.  When the moral power of the current monarchy is gone, there is no telling what will happen.

That is the backdrop of the clash between the yellow shirts and the red shirts.  It's tempting  to equate unknown foreign situations to better known home situations, but it's also misleading.  You have to take things for what they are and not fill in the blanks with what you are familiar with.  It's hard to leave the blanks blank.  But you're going to be more accurate if you leave the ?????? there than if you fill the blanks in with your own cultural fillers.

Basically there is a clash between the 'yellow shirts' who are the better educated, more urban, more middle class and elite Thais, with power centered in Bangkok and the less educated, more working class and rural Thais, whose power is centered in Chiang Mai.  The yellow represent the traditionally more politically powerful, but a smaller portion of the population. 

The current prime minister, Abhbisit, born in UK and with bachelors, masters, and doctorate all from Oxford, represents a more 'rational' legal, and elite Western perspective.  He came to power when the military deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin.  Thaksin also has a Western education.

Master's degree in Criminal Justice at Eastern Kentucky University, Richmond, Kentucky in 1974 and a PhD in Criminal Justice at Sam Houston State University, Huntsville, Texas in 1978. .  [Bangkok Post]

Thaksin, a media industry billionaire, is more populist,  He's also been convicted on corruption charges and would be arrested if he returned to Thailand.  That probably would set off riots even greater than what we've seen already.

You can read about both Abhisit and Thaksin in far more detail at Wikipedia.

Here's the beginning of an on-the-ground guest blogger post on New Mandela:

Most commentators appear to be trying to figure out the end game of the next few day’s red shirt rally in Bangkok and speculating about the possibility that violence will break out, but there are few who pay much attention to ordinary red shirt supporters. This has been a persistent pattern among both journalists and academics, though it is refreshing to note that some recent Bangkok Post reports include some references to ordinary red shirt people and their motivation in traveling to Bangkok for the demonstration of 14 March 2010, in marked contrast to its reporting a year ago. Nonetheless, the main focus of the [primarily state-run] TV media has been the prospect of violence, as with the local Thai and English-language press. I offer this descriptive cameo account simply to put some flesh on the bones of the leeched accounts of the red shirts and to give readers a sense of immediacy in the current events as they are unfolding. It is made as preliminary to what I’m sure will be a compelling and dynamic portrait of evolving events from the intrepid Nick Nostitz, who is pounding these Bangkok streets as I write, having myself returned from the blazing heat of the rally site to the comfort of my air-conditioned room in Sukhumvit. . .  [The rest is here.]

Bangkok Pundit is monitoring the coverage of the red shirt march on Bangkok.

BP: Are the reds going away?
BBC on Abhisit's response to the red shirts:

Flanked by ministers and coalition allies, Mr Abhisit said on national television, from the barracks: "The protesters have demanded that I dissolve the house before midday (0500 GMT) today, but the coalition parties agree the demand cannot be met."
"Elections must be held under common rules and genuine calm. We have to listen to other people's voices, not just the protesters," he said.

BP: If the coalition parties don't budge, then what for the red shirts?
btw, BP can't live blog, but check out Nirmal Ghosh of the Straits Times' blog with hourly updates so far. Key quote:

1115hrs Bangkok time: Probably about 500 soldiers with riot shields and communication equipment deployed about 20m inside wrought iron fence at 11th Infantry HQ. Main gate protected by coils of razor wire. A thicket of razor wire also lines the inside of the fence. Clearly anyone trying to get over risks severe lacerations.

There are around 5,000 reds here and growing. Road outside clogged with their vehicles. Two pedestrian overhead bridges clogged with reds. They are jeering and shouting abuse at the soldiers. A mood of excitement is in the air not one of aggressiveness.

Siam Report also has a live blog post with plenty of updates:

Thai Rath: เมื่อ เวลาประมาณ 09.50 น. วันที่ 15 มี.ค. นายอภิสิทธิ์ เวชชาชีวะ นายกรัฐมนตรี พร้อมแกนนำพรรคร่วมรัฐบาล อาทิ นายวรรณรัตน์ ชาญนุกูล หัวหน้าพรรครวมใจไทยชาติพัฒนา นายชาญชัย ชัยรุ่งเรือง หัวหน้าพรรคเพื่อแผ่นดิน นายชุมพล ศิลปอาชา หัวหน้าพรรคชาติไทยพัฒนา นายโสภณ ซารัมย์

Sophan Sorlam BJT commm. & transport minister was there for government announcement that there won't be a House dissoution. I guess Thanong will have to find some new sources or change the story a bit.

Thailand has a history of compromise which kept the nation uncolonized as all its neighbors became either French or British colonies.  In WW II it was able to maintain its pro Allied connections through a government abroad, while the country was taken over by the Japanese.  I'm just not close enough to what is happening to really be able to interpret the current years of turmoil with too much confidence.  But the two blogs I've linked here and in the column on the right - Mandela and Pundit - do give useful reports.