Showing posts with label Trump. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trump. Show all posts

Thursday, November 07, 2024

The Numbers Don't Add Up - The National Gaps vs Alaska Gaps



Kamal Harris lost the popular vote to Donald Trump by almost 10 million votes!


How did the election swing so far to Trump?  How much was voter suppression - mail-in ballots sent too late to get back, Russian bomb threats and who knows what other shenanigans?  Too few polling places in Democratic areas?  Suppression of student votes and other forms?  

How is it that Trump, after losing the popular vote to Clinton by 3 million votes 

"[Clinton] outpaced President-elect Donald Trump by almost 2.9 million votes, with 65,844,954 (48.2%) to his 62,979,879 (46.1%), according to revised and certified final election results from all 50 states and the District of Columbia."

and to Biden by 7 million votes, 

"Biden’s popular vote margin over Trump tops 7 million"

now beats Harris by almost 10 million votes?  There were 155 million votes in 2020 but only 145 million this time.  By all accounts there was a record number of people turning out this time.  It would seem some votes are missing.    

The numbers we have would mean the gap between increased by 13 million and by 17 million against Biden.  

It doesn't add up.  I know, racism and misogyny play a role, but not that much.  Especially after all the terrible things we learned about Trump after the 2020 election.  They've been listed by everyone already from Jan 6 through convictions and indictments.  And I'd argue that Harris ran a much better and exciting campaign than Clinton or Biden did.  And it sure looked like there were lots of people voting early and on election day.  

How is it possible for him to have won the popular vote by a huge margin this time when he lost it significantly the two previous races?  

Alaska Totals Don't Match The US Totals

It seems even more suspicious when you look at the Alaska totals.  Alaska is a red state, so the increased Trump numbers should be more exaggerated in Alaska than the US total which includes blue states and red states.  But it isn't.  The opposite.  

Harris did better than Clinton, and not quite as well as Biden in Alaska.  


Trump beat Clinton by 47,000 votes in Alaska in 2016..  

Alaska Div of Elections



Trump beat Biden by 36,000 votes in Alaska.  

Alaska Div of Elections    xxx



  
But Trump only beat Harris by 39,000 votes this time.  3000 votes more than Biden lost by, but 8,000 votes fewer than Clinton lost by in Alaska.  

Alaska Div of Elections

Alaska's a red state.  If the number were consistent with the Lower 48 numbers, she should have lost by a lot more than Biden and Clinton lost by.  But her numbers were better than Clinton's.  


So my dilemma is how to connect the dots in a way that makes sense.  Not to make up some wild story, but to offer a plausible hypothesis or two that could be tested by people with better math skills and better data analysis skills and maybe some ability to uncover Russian (or others) tampering with out election computer systems. 

One could argue that misogyny and racism gave Trump more votes in the Lower 48, but then why not have a similar change in Alaska?  We have among the highest statistics for murdered and raped women.  
Or you could blame it on the economy or immigration and border issues.  But whatever policy issues you might raise, people in Alaska have as much access as Lower 48 voters to Fox News and odd internet sites that supported Trump with relentless lies. 

What makes sense to me is someone tinkered with the computers.  Or the ballots.  That's not that far fetched.  Trump, before the election repeatedly said if he lost it would be because of election rigging.  

Trump always projects his own behavior onto others. He's a criminal and rapist who said the Haitian refugees were criminals and rapists.  If the Guinness Book of Records had a category on liars, Trump would certainly be in the top five if not the winner.  And he calls anyone who puts him in a bad light a liar.  He accuses others of his own behaviors.  

He told us over and over that the elections were rigged.  Does that mean he was rigging them?  Not conclusively, but it's a clue that fits the pattern.  Just need some serious investigation of this.  Just as Trump would have demanded had he lost.  To be sure.  

Comparing the national gaps between Trump and his three presidential opponents and comparing them to the Alaska gaps raises real questions for me.  

I'm not saying it happened, but I'm saying there are serious inconsistencies that require some explanation.  

I'm sure the Trump mafia are laughing at how easy it was to get Harris to concede.  They knew she would play by the traditional rules that they have flouted since . . . always.  

Joe Biden, you've got three months to try out your Supreme Court granted immunity.  I'm not calling for you to blow up Mar-A-Lago,  but I'd like to see you push some limits to find out more about the Russian Trump election interference and how the numbers got so out of whack.  And it might show us that the Supreme Court has more comfort with Trump transgressions than Biden transgressions.  If it does, it might be forced to put more restrictions on Trump's immunity.  

Oh, and maybe look into the medical records of Trump's ear.  We've essentially heard nothing.  If he'd really been hit in ear, we'd have heard the doctors explaining it in detail and Trump would be showing off the scar.  

 

Monday, November 04, 2024

A Fork In The Road Of US And World History

This is one of those historic moments when the world will pull back from the bring of disaster or go crashing into a new world of callous destruction.  The US AID (Agency for International Development) [poster] from Thailand in the late 1960s isn't too dramatic for the choice we face right now.  On the left side it says "Communism,"  in the middle it says "or" and on the right side it says "Freedom." Our choice now is Authoritarian vs. Democracy.  




Despite its many flaws, the US Democracy has been one of the better examples of how humans can work together to build a society based on law and aspirations of peace, of freedom, and of comfort.  The reality has favored some more than others - in terms of freedom, justice, and economic and social security.  And it has had serious negative impacts on the environment.  

But we're at a critical fork in the road.  To the right, we crash into the despotic world ruled by Trump and those who pull his strings, like Putin and his meddling into our election as he has meddled in the Brexit vote, Hungary, France, Italy, and, of course, Ukraine.  He's a force of evil turning the world toward chaos that he thinks he can better thrive in.  

If we go the Trump route, it's not Trump so much I'm worried about.  But it's his backers - from Putin, to the Christian Nationalist mob, and the wealthy cabal on the far right who have been plotting for decades and have already successfully captured the Supreme Court.  

The left fork would give us the first woman president, who is also part East Indian and part Black.  And she's incredibly capable as her career and short campaign has demonstrated.  

There should not even be any doubt that Kamala Harris should win this election.  That there is reflects serious failures in our system.  Failures in the education system that has produced tens of millions of voters who would choose a candidate with hundreds of flaws and misbehaviors any one of which would have destroyed any other presidential candidate.  
Failures in our system that have allowed foreign propaganda to be broadcast through outlets like Fox News and all sorts of internet sites to sow seeds of distrust in our system and in the idea of Truth itself.
Failures in our justice system that allow a convicted felon, who is ineligible to vote in most states, to be a candidate for the presidency.  Who would be ineligible to join our military to be its Commander in Chief.  
Fairlure in our electoral system that disregards the popular vote for an arcane system that focuses all the attention on seven purple states.  

A Harris administration will face many serious problems (including the disgruntled cult members), but it would work on them rationally and in good faith.   And that a Trump administration would exacerbate.  

Often such turning points aren't realized until after they happen - Pearl Harbor, 9/11, the election of FDR, for example.  

But we know today.  We've known a long time that this election is a choice between two very different futures.  One continues to move us toward greater equality, and one hopes, more equal economic prosperity, and continued fights to minimize CO2 emissions and the worst ravages of climate change.  
The other unleashes nasty brutish anger and hate on our country and the world.  

And even if Harris wins the election decisively, we know the depraved one will fight to overturn the election.  

Fortunately, this time round we know his past behaviors and are better prepared.  The public is more aware because, except for his cult members, we've seen how he operated after the last election.  Our government is better prepared for the same reason.  And more importantly, Joe Biden is still president and in control of the military and the national guard and other resources that might be needed.  

My logical brain tells me that it will be a Harris victory.  Reason says that the world has changed in ways that disfavor Trump.


Since the 2020 election, we've learned so much more about Trump's evil ways.
He was impeached for the second time.
He created a plot to challenge Biden's victory
He instigated the January 6 insurrection of the Capitol
He stole boxes and boxes full of classified documents and stored some of them in a bathroom in Mar-A-Lago. And shared them, well, we don't know for sure with whom.
He's become a convicted felon and rapist.
He has several serious indictments and trials still waiting for him
The Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade
His public appearances have shown him to be more and more deranged
He's presided over a Nazi rally in New York City
Many of the 'very fine people' he selected to serve in his administration have publicly warned us what a disastrous president he was.  

I can go on and on, but the point is that we know so many more terrible things about him.  Even if his cult stays loyal, there have to be other Republicans and Independents who voted for him last time who either won't vote for Trump, and many who will vote for Harris.  And young people who now are eligible to vote, but weren't four years ago.

We know that the Dobbs decision has galvanized women, especially in light of the Republican states who have passed draconian anti-abortion laws that are killing women who have had miscarriages and other problems with pregnancy.  And we're hearing about many women forced to give birth to their rapists' children.  

Conservative states like Kansas and Ohio have put the right to abortions in their constitutions through ballot measures, by-passing their legislatures.  

The numbers of early voters shows Democrats returning their ballots more than Republicans, shows women outvoting men, shows young voters voting at higher than past levels.  So everything points to a Harris victory.  

But nothing is certain until the votes are counted and whatever gimmicks Trump pulls if he loses are blocked.  

This is one of those huge moments in history where human destiny hangs in the balance.  

[Soon after I arrived in Thailand in 1967 as Peace Corps teacher in rural Thailand, I was taken out one night to a village by an AID employee.  A village not unlike the one on the right of the poster.  He hung a sheet up across the road and showed movies about the danger of communism.  I suspect, in hindsight, I was being tested and I failed dismally - to my credit, I'd like to think.  AID (CIA?) never approached me again, to my knowledge.  But I did end up with this poster.]


Saturday, November 02, 2024

Why LATimes and Washington Post Presidential Non-Endorsements Are So Problematic

The previous post concerned how the billionaire owners of the LA Times and Washington Post blocked their editorial boards from endorsing Kamala Harris for president and why I cancelled my subscription to the LA Times. [I don't have a subscription to the Washington Post.] 

We know that Jeff Bezos has other business deals with the US government [sorry, there's a paywall] - with Amazon and with other ventures - that a Trump presidency would, in Bezos' mind - be quashed.  And he may be right.  Patrick Soon-Shiong also has other businesses that possibly could be jeopardized by a Trump presidency.  Plus Trump has said that he would punish media and others who oppose him.  

I focused on what appears to be their fear that if Trump were elected, they would be punished for such an endorsement.  I compared that behavior to the behavior of the Washington Post and NYTimes when they published the Pentagon Papers in 1971 - a daring display of courage and the power of press.  

I spent more time on the Pentagon Papers than I intended to, because I realized that while I was a young adult at the time, anyone under 53 today, hadn't even been born yet.  If 'Pentagon Papers' means anything to most of them, it probably is pretty superficial.  

Think what people born after next year will know and understand about the 2024 election in 2077!  The historic lessons get lost if we don't keep them alive.  

So I decided to postpone the second part of that post to another post.  

Here's the part I left for a future post - putting their actions into context using Vaclav Havel's "The Power of the Powerless."  You can see the whole essay at the link.  Or a much briefer overview at Wikipedia.

It's a long essay, written by then Czech playwright, and later, president, about how people in an authoritarian regime could still maintain their freedom.  He's specifically talking about the Soviet form of dictatorship that ruled Czechoslovakia at that time.  There are many people with greater expertise on Havel's work than I.  But this is my limited take on this situation.  

When I heard about the two billionaire owners of two major newspapers killing editorials that would have endorsed Kamala Harris for president, the part I thought of was the story of the greengrocer putting up signs in his shop window.   You can read it below.  I've highlighted some of it in red.  

"III 

"The manager of a fruit-and-vegetable shop places in his window, among the onions and carrots, the slogan: "Workers of the world, unite!" Why does he do it? What is he trying to communicate to the world? Is he genuinely enthusiastic about the idea of unity among the workers of the world? Is his enthusiasm so great that he feels an irrepressible impulse to acquaint the public with his ideals? Has he really given more than a moment's thought to how such a unification might occur and what it would mean?


"I think it can safely be assumed that the overwhelming majority of shopkeepers never think about the slogans they put in their windows, nor do they use them to express their real opinions. That poster was delivered to our greengrocer from the enterprise headquarters along with the onions and carrots. He put them all into the window simply because it has been done that way for years, because everyone does it, and because that is the way it has to be. If he were to refuse, there could be trouble. He could be reproached for not having the proper decoration in his window; someone might even accuse him of disloyalty. He does it because these things must be done if one is to get along in life. It is one of the thousands of details that guarantee him a relatively tranquil life "in harmony with society," as they say.


"Obviously the greengrocer is indifferent to the semantic content of the slogan on exhibit; he does not put the slogan in his window from any personal desire to acquaint the public with the ideal it expresses. This, of course, does not mean that his action has no motive or significance at all, or that the slogan communicates nothing to anyone. The slogan is really a sign, and as such it contains a subliminal but very definite message. Verbally, it might be expressed this way: "I, the greengrocer XY, live here and I know what I must do. I behave in the manner expected of me. I can be depended upon and am beyond reproach. I am obedient and therefore I have the right to be left in peace." This message, of course, has an addressee: it is directed above, to the greengrocer's superior, and at the same time it is a shield that protects the greengrocer from potential informers. The slogan's real meaning, therefore, is rooted firmly in the greengrocer's existence. It reflects his vital interests. But what are those vital interests?


"Let us take note: if the greengrocer had been instructed to display the slogan "I am afraid and therefore unquestioningly obedient;' he would not be nearly as indifferent to its semantics, even though the statement would reflect the truth. The greengrocer would be embarrassed and ashamed to put such an unequivocal statement of his own degradation in the shop window, and quite naturally so, for he is a human being and thus has a sense of his own dignity. To overcome this complication, his expression of loyalty must take the form of a sign which, at least on its textual surface, indicates a level of disinterested conviction. It must allow the greengrocer to say, "What's wrong with the workers of the world uniting?" Thus the sign helps the greengrocer to conceal from himself the low foundations of his obedience, at the same time concealing the low foundations of power. It hides them behind the facade of something high. And that something is ideology.


"Ideology is a specious way of relating to the world. It offers human beings the illusion of an identity, of dignity, and of morality while making it easier for them to part with them. As the repository of something suprapersonal and objective, it enables people to deceive their conscience and conceal their true position and their inglorious modus vivendi, both from the world and from themselves. It is a very pragmatic but, at the same time, an apparently dignified way of legitimizing what is above, below, and on either side. It is directed toward people and toward God. It is a veil behind which human beings can hide their own fallen existence, their trivialization, and their adaptation to the status quo. It is an excuse that everyone can use, from the greengrocer, who conceals his fear of losing his job behind an alleged interest in the unification of the workers of the world, to the highest functionary, whose interest in staying in power can be cloaked in phrases about service to the working class. The primary excusatory function of ideology, therefore, is to provide people, both as victims and pillars of the post-totalitarian system, with the illusion that the system is in harmony with the human order and the order of the universe."

The situation of the greengrocer under Soviet authoritarianism and the Bezos and Soon-Shiong is not a perfect analogy, but it shows how the no-holds-barred style of Trump causes even billionaires to modify their behavior rather than draw unwanted attention to themselves.

The slogan is really a sign, and as such it contains a subliminal but very definite message
In the case of both newspaper owners, not publishing an endorsement of Harris was a sign to Trump with a clear message that they didn't want him upset at them if he were elected.  They didn't want their companies punished for supporting Harris.

the sign helps the greengrocer to conceal from himself the low foundations of his obedience, at the same time concealing the low foundations of power. It hides them behind the facade of something high. 

Not endorsing Harris was the equivalent of putting the a sign in the window that says, 'we will not oppose you' to Trump.  The low foundation of their obedience. We do not want you to punish us in some way.  And the low foundation of Trump's power is that the endorsements were perfectly legal and normal, yet they were afraid to publish the endorsements.  

The 'ideology' they were hiding behind was the idea that newspapers should  maintain "political neutrality," should be objective observers that don't take sides, but impartially report the news.  Of course, impartiality is not possible.  A news outlet can try to report objective facts, but the employees and owners all have values that color what events are reported and how they are reported.  Or, in this case, not reported.  

And the idea that newspapers must be objective observers and non-partisan is one that many hold, but it is not historically the only norm.  

Early Colonial newspapers were often "a sideline for printers."  Benjamin Franklin was such a printer with a newspaper on the side.  And they were quite partisan.  During that era John Peter Zenger was found innocent when a governor tried to shut down his partisan attacks.  Do kids still learn about Zenger in school these days?

The fact that Trump has threatened to attack the media as president and more recently to talk about his political enemies being executed - as he let the January 6 mob erect a gallows for his then Vice President - is all the more reason that they should have endorsed his opponent.  

Another issue this raises is the phenomenon of billionaires buying existing newspapers.  On the one hand, this is a way for some newspapers to survive.  And it's probably better than newspapers being owned by corporations that own many newspapers and thus limit the number of different voices available to the public.  I say newspapers here, but this also applies to radio and television.  

And yet, at the same time, the internet has provided access to way more voices than ever.  Perhaps we're just waiting for the dust to settle.  Or the Musks of the world are going to buy up those voices.  It's a time of change and we have to just hold on until it becomes more settled.  

But the problem of billionaires owning papers is that they have large financial interests that can easily come into conflict with the objectivity of the paper they own.  In Bezos' case, Amazon has interest in large government contracts which some have suggested as a reason he vetoed the endorsement.  

The key point in all this for me, the reason I thought it important enough to cancel my LA Times subscription, is the issue Havel raises about having personal freedom, no matter how small, and to use it.  

Authoritarians have control because people voluntarily obey them.  Even when there is no law and no order, people anticipate what the regime wants them to do, and do it.  People cede their autonomy voluntarily.  As did the two owners of the newspapers.  And as the many Republican politicians who trashed Trump during the 2016 primaries - Cruz, Graham, Rubio, etc. - but then fell in line to support him.  Trump is ruthless, but Stormy Daniels and E. Jean Carroll stood up to him and won.  

If Trump wins Tuesday, and we get conflicting reports on how close it is, we will all be facing life in an authoritarian state.  Understanding Havel will be important.  

Friday, October 18, 2024

The Apprentıce - A Good Way To Understand Trump's Behavior

 We saw the film about Roy Cohn yesterday afternoon.  Of course, it also is about Donald Trump - the Apprentice in the film title.

Here's the LA Times review.  It also tells the story of how it was feared the film would not be publicly shown before the election.  But, alas, it appears it was in Anchorage - at just about every theater, all day, and now it's gone.  It would serve the public much better to have it show at different theaters different weeks, so that word of mouth could get out.  Since the Anchorage Daily News no longer lists or reviews movies, you pretty much have to go look on line and seek out movies, rather than get reminders while you're reading the newspaper.  

I started posting about Roy Cohn back in 2016, and it wasn't flattering.

June 19, 2016:  

". . . attack, counterattack and never apologize."  In the movie these are edited to Cohn's and Trump's three rules:   
  1. Attack, Attack Attack
  2. Admit nothing, Deny everything
  3. No matter what happens, you claim victory and never admit defeat

You can hear Cohn (actor Jeremy Strong) list them in this trailer.  

 

June 24, 2016

"Roy Cohn was one of the most loathsome characters in American history, so why did he have so many influential friends?"

There really isn't much in the movie that adds to those eight year old posts.  

But seeing it today, in hindsight, you recognize many characteristics of Trump.  

Listen to any time he talks.  He follows Cohn's rules.  He attacks.  He never admits anything.  He denies everything.  And he claims victory despite what really happened.  (Did you know he totally defeated Harris in their debate?)

He doesn't answer questions that would reflect negatively on him.  Instead he changes the subject and/or attacks one or more of his current perceived enemies. He lies about what they've done, and calls them demeaning names.  

He never apologizes.  Ever.  

Listen for these three every time he talks.  


What most struck me about the movie was, what I'll call grittiness.  It's well edited, but it's often dark and there's a lot of hand held camera.  But it moves right along.  

Again, because I researched Cohn back in 2016 and did those two posts listed above, there isn't much in the film I didn't know and a lot I knew that was slightly touched on in the movie.  For instance, Cohen mentions (while telling Trump he's crazy to get married) that he almost got married to Barbara Walters until he realized she'd own half of what he owned.  That marriage would only be a way to cover his homosexuality.  But the movie doesn't tell you, Barbara Walters stayed loyal to him because he helped get a warrant for her father dismissed.  

But what did strike me as I watched the movie, was how Cohn, in two instances, helps Trump by going through his vast collection of tapes (he recorded all the rooms in his house when he had parties), he was able to get two rulings against Trump changed, by black mailing the decision makers with his tapes.  

I've speculated at times about Trump having dirt on most GOP members of Congress which keeps them supporting him, despite earlier denunciations of Trump.  Think of Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio, just to name three.  The movie reinforces that belief.  I wouldn't even be surprised if Russian intelligence hasn't helped him gather such compromising evidence.  

I was hoping to get this up to encourage folks to see the film.  Unfortunately that doesn't see likely for folks in Anchorage, but I'd hope in other places the film will play longer.  


I'd note that at the end of September, we let our Netflix subscription lapse.  I was hoping that would give me more time to read and blog, but so far that hasn't happened that way.  My daily hour at my local elementary school, and preparation for it, takes up a lot of time, but is very gratifying.  The teacher said the other day that my guy is doing much better in class.  I decided that I need to have him work on reading in Spanish.  He can't do that fluently, but he can slowly, and with help, work out the words.  And I can feel his sense of achievement when he gets the word.  In English, he doesn't know enough words to get that satisfaction.  And my hope is that when he can read more fluently in Spanish, English will be easier to tackle.  But he does have a fair passive English vocabulary - that is, he understands things I ask him to do.  And just hearing me repeat the same kinds of questions and instructions in English everyday drills those words and phrases in.  



Tuesday, October 08, 2024

Farrago Follow Up - What Will Trump Do?

The previous post, Farrago, meandered into the power struggles in the US and the assault on science in favor of fantastic explanations of things.  [I prefer 'fantastic explanations' to 'conspiracy theories' because there are in fact conspiracies and people who pursue real conspiracies - like the Federalist Societies 40 year plan to pack the Supreme Court with justices who would rule their way - aren't always 'crackpots.'] 

Reader Jacob left a lengthy comment which you can see there.    Rather than answer it there, I've decided to answer it in a new post.  

Well, since I know many of you won't go back to see what he wrote, I've decided to put it here again.

Hi Steve. Just a thought from across the pond...

When you started your enquiry last year asking HOW we got to this point (of finding more & more people believing the unproven in so many things around us) you more often than not explained the difference boiling down to university education levels. 

I felt, and still do, that you do have the view of someone from the world of questions, of successfully negotiating the discipline of the academic reasoning & rewards. I also acknowledge that you (graciously) agreed that talent isn't limited to intellectual gifts, but also those of the 'multiple intelligences' view of human ability & talents.

So with all that, we plunged (as so many did then) into just HOW we could be at this political junction of PRO and CON re what we thought to be ‘dictator-in-waiting’ Donald Trump. We didn't succeed in pinning the tail-on-that-donkey, did we?

So today, I’m wiping my slate clean: I’m with many, if not most here, asking this question: Does Mr Trump plan to win regardless his methods to achieve it?

Given these past years of many quick checks and deep dives with so-many streams of thought & analysis, I have honed my own little thought for this presidential election in America, if anyone wishes to consider it. Mr Trump’s preparation is laid, his goal easy to know. He only awaits the day in which his blow will be struck.

Mr. Trump’s seizure of the presidency (at precious cost to a Republic) can be affirmed by his Supreme Court and a Congress with too-narrow mandate to intervene in a politically effective way. But most importantly, far too many Americans have ‘drunk the Kool-Aid’.

I am nearly 18 years from living in the USA now; I am also a person born to its promise & culture, to its history & dreams. I moved countries to know other histories, other ways of seeing law, culture & dreams. I can admit my shock to see so many Americans willing to surrender rule-of-law to a man of autocratic instincts, hoping his constitutional betrayal will deliver their aspirations. I have told European friends (here) that Americans have bedrock faith in their Constitution and its rule-of-law standards. It will win out.

Now I suspect I held a child’s faith: Too many Americans are faith-weary. So many flock to a ‘strong man’ promising his so-sweet nothing, “I’ll take back control for you.”

I am sorry to say that I am relieved to live where I do, where so very many here are asking, “What is happening to the USA?”"


Here's my response.  


Jacob,  

Lots of questions rolled up into the reply.  And lots of answers too.  

First, your comment “you more often than not explained the difference boiling down to university education levels.”  I suspect that reflects more what you hear than what I’ve said over the years.  I have indeed argued that good education does train students to think logically and critically (among other things.)  That could start happening in elementary school and be honed further in middle and high school in a good school with good teachers.  At good schools the attentive students graduate with varying levels of those skills.  And I've acknowledged that a rigorous logical, left brain, education is the best way to start all kids.  But I would add that all kids should be given the space to work on something that interests them, and a good school would then use their areas of interest, to cultivate logical reasoning in a context that makes sense to each kid.  

As students go deeper into those topics at the university level, they can improve on those skills.  Statistics that show college educated voters tend (note ‘tend’) to lean more Democratic than people with fewer years of education.  

“The last few election cycles have been marked by an increasing divergence in outcomes based on education levels, with Democrats making serious gains with college-educated voters while Republicans win far greater shares of non-college educated white voters.” from Politico  

But you don’t have to get those skills only in school.  People who are different in some significant way from the ‘average’ - different religion, ethnicity, sexual identity, etc. - often grow up in at least two different worlds: 1) their family and group world and 2) the larger white world that has traditionally ruled the US.  And for those with non-conforming gender identity, they can be in a different reality from their family.  

The dissonance between how these citizens who experience one reality at home and a different reality at school often gives them a leg up on seeing the big picture, on seeing there isn't just one reality.  

And there are lots of others who get the dissonance even if they don’t go to college.  And there are many college graduates who got by without learning how to think critically.  Or who can, but have blind spots where they can’t apply those skills.  Or they apply them in a twisted way.  Like logically justifying white nationalism or misogyny based on odd facts and premises.    


Getting back on track

Hoping people would come to their political senses when they were given the facts was not something I held out much hope for, though it’s my natural flex.  I used to tell students writing reports for actual administrators that emotions always trump reason if there’s a conflict between the two.  So they needed to know their clients’ values so they could write their reports not so it made sense only to the student, but also to the client.  


I did hold out hope that enough US voters would choose the Democratic candidate over Trump.  That isn’t unreasonable since that happened in 2016 and 2020.  Though the way the electoral college works, that’s not enough.  Harris has to win big so the GOP can’t fight with any credibility over crumbs in swing states.  And can’t plausibly argue that Trump won.  Of course there will always be those who deny reality as the 2020 election has shown.


Now to your first question, which you essentially answered yourself affirmatively.  


"Does Mr Trump plan to win regardless his methods to achieve it?"


I agree that he does plan to challenge the election no matter what.  All the talk of rigging elections is meant to get people ready for such a challenge. The bigger the margin of victory the harder that will be.  The many lawyers and others who have been fighting Trump’s original challenges in 2020 are well versed in his strategy and paying close attention to new ones.  

And this time round, Biden is in charge of the military and national guard and other levers of power that will be much better prepared than in 2021 post election.  

And the people he has working for him are skilled administrators - as we can see in the preparations for Helene and the coordinated efforts after the storm hit, getting inflation down, implementing the Infrastructure bill, etc.  

Will Trump supporters, those who believe all his lies, come out with weapons and raise hell?  Possible.  Even likely in some places.  


One other point I’d like to make concerning reason and non-reason.  It’s clearer and clearer that Putin and Iran and North Korea have all been using the internet to stir up conflict in the US (not to mention in UK and France and other parts of the world.).  We know about it explicitly in 2016.  It's been noted in every election since.  It’s likely they were at it earlier during the time they were grooming Trump as an asset.  They played a role in Brexit.   They’re at it over Gaza and Israel.  Taking down democracies strengthens their message to their own people that democracy is inherently unstable and bad.  It also makes their aggression much easier.  


Playing on people’s fears - of immigrants, of crime, of economic disaster - is always going to capture a certain number of people.  Trump’s non-stop lies, amplified by Fox, and main stream media,  is a well planned strategy to make it impossible to tell truth from fiction.  Everything Trump says is projection of his own actions onto his opponents.  With AI and hard to spot fake video, the ability to tell truth from lies gets harder.  All traditional authorities are challenged - scientists, universities, doctors, teachers, anyone who ‘can prove’ something with more than sweeping declarations of how things are, are targets.  The Right’s attack on public education is part of that package.  They want to get public money funneled to private schools that they can control.  


It’s ironic that until Reagan began attacking government, it was usually the Left that challenged government and the Right that defended it.  


Trump has good reason to fight for power, even after he loses.  If there is a Harris administration he will be on trial still and very likely sentenced to prison. At which point I wouldn’t be surprised if he fled to Cuba or another Russian ally.  Or Saudi Arabia.  


When he’s gone this isn’t over.  Our authoritarian enemies will continue to do what they can to weaken the West.  The Heritage Foundation and the Federalist Society will continue to fight for the power of the rich white elite to control the country.  


Fortunately their perfect candidate is also a huge liability.  Republicans’ eagerness to exercise their post Roe power at the state level has alerted and alarmed sensible voters.  And their demands for abject loyalty has resulted in less than stellar candidates in down ballot races - like North Carolina’s Mark Robinson, candidate for Governor.  


We’ll know in a month how the election goes, and then we’ll have to wait and see how the post election goes.  

You may well have made a good decision when you established yourselves in Northern Ireland.  But if the US goes down, no one is safe.   

Tuesday, October 01, 2024

Trump Beat Biden In Alaska By Only 35K Votes, 234K Didn't Vote

In 2016, Trump beat Clinton, in Alaska, by 46,943 votes.  
From Alaska Div of Elections

While that seems like a lot of votes, there were 207,287 registered voters WHO DIDN'T VOTE.  That's fewer than the number who voted, but it's still a huge number.  60% of registered voters voted.  

A caveat:  Not all the people on the Alaska voter list still live in Alaska or are even alive.  But even if the ineligibles equaled 25% (1/4) of the list, that would still leave 150,000 people who didn't think it was important or convenient enough to vote.  

In 2020, Trump beat Biden, in Alaska, by 35,742 votes.  

This time there were 234,247 people who didn't vote.  Say, 175,000 of them were still eligible Alaska voters.

And this time, according to the State's website, there were almost 70,000 more voters.  Trump's winning margin shrank by 21,000 votes, by more than 1/3.  

We learned a lot more about Trump after the 2016 election.

A lot of things happened during Trump's presidency from a pandemic during which Trump said repeatedly that COVID would just go away. See this CNN graphic of his many such proclamations along with the increasing number of cases.

And Trump was impeached once.  

And I suspect, sadly, that many people voted for Biden (but not Clinton) just because he was a man.

A lot more has happened since the 2020 election. 
  • There was the January 6 insurrection that he promoted. 
  • Another impeachment.
  • The 50 plus lost Trump court cases challenging Biden's election win.
  • The various Trump indictments and convictions.
  • The classified documents stored in a Mar-a-Lago bathroom.
  • The overturning of Roe v Wade
  • The publicity over the Supreme Court's right wing justices' unreported gifts, in one case, millions of dollars worth.
  • The Court's granting immunity to presidents.
Meanwhile the Biden administration lowered the inflation they inherited and passed huge infrastructure bills which have pumped billions into the US economy and are repairing much of our long neglected bridges, roads, electrical grids, internet access, ports, airports, and many other facilities. 

Sure, many die-hard Trump voters limit their intake of information to media that only say good things about Trump and terrible things about Democrats.  But many others - Independents, Republicans - who do get more than Fox News and further right social media propaganda.  

I have no data on how many of the Alaska non-voters were male or female or something else.  But surely there are 30,000 Alaska women, and men with daughters, who for whatever reason, did not vote in 2020, but who have an interest in making sure that the Dobbs decision that overturned Roe, will not lead to restrictions on female health procedures in Alaska.  Let's let them know they can flip Alaska blue.  Yes, I know it's a stretch, but it's certainly within possibility.

For context, NPR reported in 2020 the margins in the swing states that voted for Biden:

Arizona - 10,457 votes
Georgia - 12,670
Michigan - 154,188
Nevada - 33,506
Pennsylvania - 81,660
Wisconsin - 20,282

 Alaska has way fewer people than these states.  Nevertheless, there were 237,000 registered voters in Alaska who didn't vote in 2020. 

Tuesday, September 10, 2024

Harris Was Presidential, But Trump . . .

Trump scowled and scolded and lied expansively about Harris and Biden and bragged about how everything he ever did was the greatest accomplishment anyone has ever seen.


But Trump did sound authoritative.  Every lie was said with absolutely certainty on his part.  People who listen to tone, but don't pay attention to the words or the truth, and haven't paid attention to politics until now, may have been impressed at how 'strong' he sounded.  His lies were non-stop, but he sounded coherent, not the way he rambles on his Tweets and at his rallies.


But Harris was logical, calm but firm, and full of facts and plans, though she didn't have time to get into much detail.  She did goad Trump regularly and it clearly got to him.  

To me, Harris was a far better debater throughout.  But I cannot guess at what people who still haven't decided about which candidate to vote for.  The fact that they are still uncertain is something I can't fathom.  

Saturday, August 31, 2024

Some Much Needed Civil Service History

From the August 31, 2024 LA Times: [Note the digital and facsimile editions have different titles.]

 


As someone who taught public administration at the graduate level, I'm well aware of the lack of knowledge of what 'the civil service' is.  So let me give you some background.  

Before the civil service was created in local, state, and federal governments, we had what is often called "the spoils system."

Briefly, 'to the victor, go the spoils.'  Winning candidates gave jobs to the campaign supporters.  This was the payoff for working on a campaign.  Qualifications were not nearly as important as loyalty.  This included positions as low as garbage collector and as high was head of the budget.  

Aside from the incompetence and corruption this led to, it also meant that whenever someone from a different party won, the whole government was thrown out and new people were put in place.  And had to learn from scratch, generally without any help from the fired former workers.

Political machines, like Tammany Hall in New York, would recruit new immigrants coming off the ships to work on their campaigns with the promise of a job if they won.  [US citizenship was not required to vote back then.  That changed later.  The Constitution gave the states the power to run elections and decide qualifications to vote.  The Constitution didn't ban women from voting, the states did.]

At the national level, this came to a head when Andrew Jackson was elected president and invited 'the riffraff' that elected him to the White House in 1830.  But it wasn't until a disgruntled office seeker assassinated President Garfield in 1881 because he didn't get the position he sought, that Congress got serious. 

In 1883 they passed the Pendleton Act that set up a civil service system based on merit.  

Merit, as in the 'merit system' means that positions are filled based on merit, or on one's qualifications for the job, not who you know.  

Local governments in New York and Boston didn't move to merit systems until the early 20th Century.  

Those merit systems weren't perfect.  The inherent biases of the day meant that women and Blacks weren't qualified except for what Trump would call 'women's jobs' and 'Black jobs.'  

And even today, the top level jobs in most governments are still filled with people who are loyal to the head of the government - whether that's a mayor, governor, or president.   Not only does that include cabinet officials but a top layer of 'exempt' positions.  Exempt meaning they are not covered by the merit system.  They can be hired and fired at will.  Usually the newly elected official picks people based on their loyalty to his policy as well as his professional qualifications to do the job.  But clearly that second part doesn't always happen.  The only check on this, is a required vote of approval by a legislative body - the US or state Senate, a City Council.  But if the newly elected executive  has a majority in the legislative branch too, that approval is often pro forma.

People hired through a merit system process also have job protections.  They cannot be fired except for cause - for violating the law, the policies or procedures, for gross incompetence etc.  Whereas the appointed (exempt) positions don't have such protections.  

After his 2016 election, Trump was frequently frustrated by career civil servants, who didn't jump to follow his often illegal instructions. The media have dubbed these people (who included many appointed positions as well) 'the guardrails' that kept Trump somewhat in line. He wanted the Justice Department to punish people who opposed him.  He did battle with the civil servants in various regulatory agencies who followed the law rather than Trump's illegal bidding.  


So, when we hear that Trump wants to destroy the civil service, as stated in the LA Times headline above, this is what we're talking about.  

He doesn't want a system that hires qualified people who cannot be fired except for cause.  (Again, for cause, means they have to do something that violates the laws, the rules, or is grossly incompetent or corrupt.)  He wants government workers that do his bidding without any resistance, without them telling him 'it's against the law.'

He wants to fire all those people who were hired based on merit (their qualifications to perform the job).  These include Democrats, Republicans, and non-partisan employees, and replace them with people whose main qualification is undying loyalty to Trump.  


That's pretty much all I want to say.

One of the very best books on this subject is Robert Caro's The Power Broker.  It's a biography of Robert Moses who played a major role in getting a merit system in place in New York.  It's a massive [1168 pages] book.  But it is also riveting as it goes into detail on how the idealist young Moses evolved into the powerful and corrupt power broker of New York. And in doing so tells the story of the civil service. Not only did the book win the Pulitzer Prize, it was also selected on most lists of the 100 best non-fiction books of the 20th Century. I challenge you to read the first hundred pages and not want to turn the page.



Wednesday, July 17, 2024

Trump's Ear

I have questions.  First reports said a teleprompter was hit and Trump's ear was cut by glass.  News reports now say he was hit by a bullet.  What doctors treated him and when do we get a report on his ear?  Did anyone locate the bullet that hit his ear?  

So I've been googling away with these sorts of questions.  



Here's a close up of the picture from Getty Images.  It's the best I can find that shows his ear immediately after he was shot.  



So here's some of the most relevant things I found: 

 “I was shot with a bullet that pierced the upper part of my right ear. I knew immediately that something was wrong in that I heard a whizzing sound, shots, and immediately felt the bullet ripping through the skin. Much bleeding took place, so I realized then what was happening.” Variety July 13, 2024

“The bullet took a little bit off the top of his ear in an area that, just by nature, bleeds like crazy,” Mr. Jackson said in an interview. “The dressing’s bulked up a bit because you need a bit of absorbent. You don’t want to be walking around with bloody gauze on his ear.” New York Times July 16, 2024


"[Trump] spoke off-camera to the New York Post and the Washington Examiner, among others, in the days following the shooting, but he was mum about his medical condition, volunteering only that, 'the doctor at the hospital said he never saw anything like this, he called it a miracle.'" NBC News July 16, 2024

What hospital?  I understand that doctors can't talk about their patients' health.  But this is someone running for president.  The candidate should ask the doctor to tell the nation what the situation is. 

"His campaign said he was taken to a nearby hospital, but it’s not clear which medical center the GOP candidate was rushed to.

There are at least three hospitals in the area.

Butler Memorial Hospital, located in Butller, is part of the Butler Health System. It offers a comprehensive range of medical services, including emergency care and trauma services.

Allegheny General Hospital in Pittsburgh, is a Level I trauma center known for its advanced medical care and trauma services. It is approximately 35 miles south of Butler, providing a nearby option for specialized trauma care.

UPMC Presbyterian, also located in Pittsburgh, is another Level I trauma center. Like Allegheny General, it is about 35 miles south of Butler." NorthJersey.com July 13, 2024  (J. Staas Haught USA TODAY NETWORK)


BUTLER, Pa. (KDKA) — "Former President Donald Trump was taken to Butler Memorial Hospital after shots were fired at his rally on Saturday.

The hospital is about 11 miles from the Butler Farm Show grounds, where the rally was held. KDKA-TV learned the former president walked into the hospital on his own.

Video obtained by KDKA-TV also showed a motorcade escorting Trump from the hospital. At the end of the significant line of police cars, there was an ambulance. It was not clear if the former president was inside that ambulance. He was then taken to Pittsburgh International Airport." KDKA News July 13, 2024  

The Only Doctor We've Heard From

I'm concerned that the only medical person who saw the ear and is talking about it is Rep. Ronny Jackson, the White House physician who was called the Candyman for all the drugs he handed out freely at the White House, and who was demoted from a one star admiral to a captain after a scathing Inspector General's report about his service both in the military and the White House.

Aside from all that, after leaving the White House Jackson was elected to Congress from Texas and has been a loyal Trump supporter.  Not the most objective reporter.  

Now, bullet or shard of glass?

The New York Times has three photos from Doug Mills, purporting to show the bullet coming toward Trump, him grasping his ear, then we see the bloody hand.  I use the word 'purportedly' not because I doubt it, but only because it's not that clear, even when enlarged.  



Snopes used that same photo to debunk the story that went viral Saturday, that Trump was hit from a piece of glass from the shattered teleprompter.  They also say the teleprompter was fine.  And they point out parts of the ear they say show torn skin.  

In an article in STAT,   Usha Lee McFarling  and Rohan Rajeev talk to doctors about what they would be concerned about and testing for if they had a patient who'd had his ear shot.   They mostly want scans of the brain to make sure there was no damage.  Who is STAT?  The site says:

"STAT delivers trusted and authoritative journalism about health, medicine, and the life sciences."


Given all this, I'd also say this was not likely staged.  The bullet was less than an inch from his skull.  That's way too close for a fake assassination attempt.  

But the Secret Service - remember all the guys that deleted their texts on January 6, 2021 - slipped up.  They keep blaming the local SWAT team for messing up, but it's their operation.  Why didn't they get Trump off the stage when people said there was someone on the roof?

One Spouter gave the best short explanation of Crooks' motive.  Maybe it's this simple.  





So at this point, I'm reasonably convinced that Trump was hit by a bullet.  And this was not a set up to glorify Trump right before the Republican convention.  But we will, over time learn more - unless Trump becomes president again.

But I couldn't find anything on whether the bullet was recovered.   You'd think the media and the US public would be demanding specific, reports on all this.  Before Trump, doctor statements (not Candyman type doctors) would have been made with lots of detail.  

Sunday, July 07, 2024

Let's Get Real About Replacing Biden

I talked to someone who is strongly anti-Trump the other day and he was also adamant about replacing Biden as the Democratic candidate.  

My gut says this is exactly what the Trump camp (including Putin and other foreign disrupters, Federalist Society, Heritage Society, etc.) would like to see.  

By focusing on one speck in Biden's career and presidency, Trump's team has gotten the attention off Trump's conviction, looming court cases, damning mentions in the newly released Epstein court documents, history of fraud and bankruptcies) and is moving the spotlight back to Biden's age and competence.  Really?!!!  And causing infighting among Democrats.  

But I want to emphasize that all this is happening - not in isolation - but in a dynamic system of vested interests, laws, organizations, individuals, agencies, money.  And this is not limited to the US. Players from around the world are involved.  

To capture some of that I've created a grossly simplified graphic of some of the factors that are in play.  


Replacing Biden would set up the Democrats for a series new crises down the line.  Once it happened, they'd then have to choose a replacement.  The natural candidate is Vice President Kamala Harris.  But people will say that a Black, South Asian/American, woman would destroy Democratic chances.  Others will say, not picking her would cause the most consistent supporters of Democrats - Black Americans - to sit out the election. One of the most articulate people in Biden's cabinet is Pete Buttigieg, but the naysayers will say a gay candidate would lose the Independents.  [None of these alarms is necessarily true.]

Meanwhile, the Heritage Foundation is already planning court challenges to putting any replacement on state ballots.  If successful in a couple of blue and purple states, Trump would win.  

There will be new scrutiny on the new candidate (and eventually vice presidential candidate).  It used to be the opposition would need to find some past scandal, but nowadays they just make it up.  Biden's worst scandals - his age, his son - have already been disclosed.

Are Putin bots and FSB (the main successor of the KGB) agents working hard to elect Trump by throwing Democrats into disarray?  You better believe it.  They played a role in various European elections   including Brexit.   

No one should be surprised at attempts to impact foreign elections.  This is standard operating procedure for the big powers intelligence agencies.   The CIA did (probably still is) that regularly.  

Putin's original career was in the KGB.  He's fully aware of this and how to do it.  And he's been playing this game a long time.  

It's true, though.  Biden looked and sounded terrible.  I've seen a Spout that said the CNN lighting and sound technicians did Biden no favors, but I haven't seen any evidence.  

And at 81 he has to be slowing down somewhat.  The presidency has aged every president faster.  But Biden has half a century of experience in Washington - as Senator, as Vice President, and as President.  He has relationships with many, many members of Congress and world leaders and his experience has led to wisdom about how to get things done, as shown by his astounding record of accomplishments.  with a slim margin of votes in Congress.

What if he works just four hours a day?  He would still be putting in more work than Trump apparently did while president.  

While the president is the figure head of the administration, we are actually electing a team.  Biden has put together a powerful team.  

The Brookings Institute created a graph to represent the turnovers in the Trump's "A Team" and cabinet" compared to past presidents.  They did the same for the Biden administration.  


This election is about Democracy versus Fascism.  A slowing Biden would still be a better president than a vigorous Trump.  And we have one debate - a speck in time - that raises questions about whether Biden is getting too old, versus 3+ years of competent performance and post debate appearances that show a man with his full mental capabilities.  This man, who has overcome a stutter as a kid, has never been a great public speaker.  But he knows the issues and his claims are based on facts.  

It's a terrible indictment of - I'm not sure what, probably a little of everything - US education, capitalist values of greed, including corporate news media, political manipulation (gerrymandering, voter suppression), racism, sexism, religion, that Trump is even a contender.  That the media and Republicans are calling for him to step down.  

Biden has an array of great debaters in his party who can get out there and campaign for him if he needs to shorten his daily schedule.  

My friend who told me the other day that Biden should resign, said that if Biden runs and wins, he'll come and tell me he was wrong.  

But he didn't say what he'd do if Biden steps down and his replacement loses.  Because I think losing in that scenario that is the more likely outcome.  Because changing candidates mid campaign will lead to lots of dissension, disruption, and lost momentum. 

Of course I could be wrong.  Biden could quickly slide into dementia.  Or a dynamic Kamala Harris could ride to victory.  Anything could happen in the months ahead.  But right now, as I see it, keeping Biden is the wisest path to not only stopping Trump, but to turning this country around and reversing much of the damage the first Trump administration has cause. 

This is going to be one of the nastiest elections ever, with misinformation drowning out truth, and devious schemes to disenfranchise voters and throw elections.  Double and triple check any claims made by anybody.  The LIE machine has been put on high.

Friday, June 28, 2024

Why Biden Is Still By Far The Best Candidate For President [Updated]

 He looked and sounded older than he did four years ago.  

So what?  

He's a decent man.  He's had a good life with some terrible tragedies, so he understands and empathizes with others.

He's been in the Senate for 36 years and was Vice President for eight years.  He's made solid relationships with many, many important players in our government, among business leaders, labor leaders, and leaders of other nations. He knows how Washington works.  He knows how the world works.  And as President with a slim majority in the Senate, and for two years in the House, then a minority for two years, he's still accomplished an enormous amount, starting with the Infrastructure bill that is transforming the backbone of the US - the roads, the bridges, ports, airports and much more.  

His opponents are a felon facing lots more charges.  A misogynist, racist, adulterer, narcissist, would be dictator, who lauds our worst enemies and can't say two sentences without lying three or four times.  [UPDATE 6/29/24:  Some of you may have noted that this paragraph began "His opponents" plural, but I only wrote about one.  I meant to add that he was also fighting against the millionaires and billionaires who managed to stack the Supreme Court, and also the media who are asking Biden to drop out of the race, but aren't asking Trump to do that.  Below I've added a video that Anonymous linked to in the comments which shows a debate moderator who takes no prisoners when candidates don't answer his questions.]

It's an easy choice.

Is Biden old?  

He's certainly among the oldest US citizens.  Old age, if you have your marbles in tact, and he does, means you have the wisdom that accrues to those who have lived a long life with a curious mind.  

His opponent is almost as old, but his mind is diseased with narcissism and a massive inferiority complex that he masks with outrageous false boasts about his greatness.  The only skills he gained through life involved blaming others, avoiding legal consequences,  and generally being a despicable person.  

I'm not worried about Biden's age, 

because he cares about the US, all its citizens and non-citizens, and al the people around the world, rich and poor alike. 

And because he's not president in order to gain power and wealth.

And because he's got a vice president who would make a spectacular president.  

And because he knows that, and if he gets to the point where he can't perform his duties, he'll gracefully set down and let Kamala Harris take over.  

In the meantime, he's captain of a ship that is sailing well, despite the stormy seas the climate denying Republicans have roiled up.


You want to get a glimpse of what things would be like under a second Trump presidency?  

Read the Project 2025 - the blueprint for the next Trump presidency that dismantles the US democracy

Watch Hitler and the Nazis: Evil on Trial - on Netflix

[UPDATED 6/29/2024:  And here's the video Anonymous (first comment below) linked to.  This makes it easier to see and is a great lesson for the rest of the media when interviewing candidates.  Thanks, Anon.

Monday, March 04, 2024

On The Colorado Ballot Supreme Court Decision [UPDATED]

After the Supreme Court agreed to hear the Colorado case and then the immunity case, I mused that the justices made an agreement to let Trump on the ballot in Colorado, but to not grant him immunity. 

It just seemed to me they were getting enough heat about losing the public's trust  - something Chief Justice Roberts has on occasion paid attention to - that maybe they decided to go in Trump's favor in one case and that they would decide against him in the other case.  This would make them look more 'objective.'

Today, they decided for Trump.  Not only did they decide for Trump, but they did so unanimously, sort of.  I haven't read the decision carefully enough, but I've read a few articles on the decision.  

Basically the five male justices not only decided the key point - whether Trump should stay on the ballot - but they went on to reach a few other conclusions.  

The women, starting with Amy Comey Barrett who wrote:

"I join Parts I and II–B of the Court’s opinion. I agree that States lack the power to enforce Section 3 against Presidential candidates. That principle is sufficient to resolve this case, and I would decide no more than that."

Sotomayor wrote what some legal scholars characterized as a dissenting opinion disguised as a concurring opinion.  

Some extra legal considerations:

I've checked the difference between a concurrent and dissenting opinion.  Basically, a concurrent opinion agrees with the decision, but not the reasoning.  A dissenting opinion disagrees with the decision and the reasoning.  I haven't tracked down what happens if there are more than one 'decisions' and someone agrees with one, but not the others.  Does that have to be a concurrent decision?  Or a dissenting decision?  Or could it be both?

A retired attorney friend told me to look up 'dicta.'  From

"Dicta in law refers to a comment, suggestion, or observation made by a judge in an opinion that is not necessary to resolve the case, and as such, it is not legally binding on other courts but may still be cited as persuasive authority in future litigation. Also referred to as dictum and judicial dicta.  A dissenting opinion is also generally considered obiter dictum."

Were the majority conclusions that Barrett criticized then dicta, because they weren't necessary to resolve the case?  Or are they legally binding?   

UNANIMOUS DECISION

SO, this was a unanimous decision.  It's important, and increasingly rare, for the Supreme Court to rule unanimously on such politically charged cases.  It's important to do so to show the court is in agreement to thwart backlash from the public.  

Chief Justice Earl Warren worked hard to get all the justices to agree on the controversial Brown v Board of Education, the landmark ruling that racially segregated public schools were not Constitutional.  From Wikipedia:

"By the early 1950s, Warren had become personally convinced that segregation was morally wrong and legally indefensible. Warren sought not only to overturn Plessy but also to have a unanimous verdict. Warren, Black, Douglas, Burton, and Minton supported overturning the precedent, but for different reasons, Robert H. Jackson, Felix Frankfurter, Tom C. Clark, and Stanley Forman Reed were reluctant to overturn Plessy.[112] Nonetheless, Warren won over Jackson, Frankfurter, and Clark, in part by allowing states and federal courts the flexibility to pursue desegregation of schools at different speeds. Warren extensively courted the last holdout, Reed, who finally agreed to join a unanimous verdict because he feared that a dissent would encourage resistance to the Court's holding. After the Supreme Court formally voted to hold that the segregation of public schools was unconstitutional, Warren drafted an eight-page outline from which his law clerks drafted an opinion, and the Court handed down its decision in May 1954.[113] In the Deep South at the time, people could view signs claiming "Impeach Earl Warren."[114]"

Why was today's decision unanimous?  Why didn't Sotomayor, Kagan, and Jackson dissent instead of concurring?  The obvious answer is that they agreed with the basic decision that Colorado didn't have the power to keep Trump off the ballot.  And that may well be true.  

But my hope is, as I said at the beginning, that Roberts got the Court to vote unanimously on this one in exchange for a unanimous decision on the immunity case.  Because Roberts sees two cases are so potentially explosive (though that didn't bother him with Dobbs), he wanted them to both be unanimous - one for Trump, one against him - to make the Court look less partisan at this time when the Court is under so much pressure because of precedent breaking cases like Dobbs and because of the corruption scandals surround Justice Thomas and others.  

But I also have some reservations.  

  • I'm not sure Roberts could get such a commitment from the more conservative judges
  • Even if he could, I'm not sure they will honor any such commitment, just as Mike Johnson didn't honor the commitment to pass the Ukrainian assistance if there was a border bill.
However, to grant a past president, even a sitting president, immunity is ludicrous.  "No man is above the law" is the "Treat your neighbor as you would have him treat you" of the US legal system.  It doesn't always happen, but it's the standard.   

Even if Roberts can't get a unanimous decision, he should minimally be able to pull Kavanaugh into such a decision along with the liberal justices and himself.  

I think the arguments for keeping Trump off the ballot in Colorado were compelling.  But Colorado has been voting Democratic presidential candidates since 2008.  So keeping him on the ballot is probably not going to change the election.  But the implications of the majority decision do seem to have long term effects.  But let's just hope we don't have any other presidential candidates who have plotted insurrection of the United States.

That's my thinking.  It's not a prediction, because in these perilous times, predictions are like throwing paper into the wind.  Treat this as wishful speculation.  

You can read the 20 page decision yourself below.  


[March 5, 2024 UPDATE:  This podcast by three attorneys - Leah Litman, Kate Shaw, and Melissa Murray - takes a pretty dim view of the decision and probably makes my hypothesis seem like desperate wishful thinking.  It's worth listening to.  Just click on the link.]