Numbers Bite Reporter

In a story about dogs biting mail carriers on June 7, the Anchorage Daily News  reported that Los Angeles had the most dog bites and more than implied that Anchorage, in comparison, really didn't have a dog biting problem.

"It also released a national ranking of cities where the most mailmen have been bitten by dogs. On top: Los Angeles, with 65 dog bites recorded in 2023.

Anchorage isn’t anywhere near that number. Each year, six or so postal carriers are on the receiving end of dog attacks here, said safety manager Peter Neagle, a 40-year veteran of the service."

 Whoa!!!!   Let's look at that a bit more carefully.  

[Mixed Media Dragon, Madison Griffin,
 Anchorage Museum,
South High School Anchorage]

LA, with 13,000,000 people had 65 dog bites.

Anchorage with 380,000 people had 6 dog bites.  

LA has 34 times more people than Anchorage.   (13 million/380k = 34.2)

So, if Anchorage had LA's population, Anchorage would have had 205 (34.2 X 6) dog bites.

The numbers we want, if we're going to accurately compare LA to Anchorage, are the number of dog bites per capita.  

Anchorage has .000016 dog bites of mail carriers per capita.  (6/380,000 =.000016)

Los Angeles has .000005 dog bites of mail carriers per capita. (13,000,000/65=.000005)

In either case, it's a relatively small number.  If we look at number of dog bites per 100,000 population we get:

Anchorage: 1.58 dog bites per 100,000 people

LA: 0.5 dog bites per 100,000

But relative to actual population, Anchorage's problem is 34.2 times worse than LA's.  

Dismissing Anchorage's number because it is less than Los Angeles' number is flat out wrong.  

This doesn't mean that if Anchorage had 13 million people it would have 205 dog bites.  Perhaps people in large cities have fewer dogs per capita, or smaller dogs.  Or mail carriers delivering to high rise apartments and condos leave the mail downstairs and have less contact with dogs.  

But to suggest Anchorage numbers are good because our overall number of dog bites is lower than LA's overall number is just wrong.  

Of course, this applies to other stats as well, like murders, suicides, rapes, missing women, etc.  

[If you find errors in my math, let me know.  It's a very rusty skill that I don't use every day.  But even if I'm off a bit, the point will still be valid.]

COVID Is Still Killing Alaskans

I don't post that much here about COVID anymore, but I do update my (now) weekly COVID page (see tabs above).  It's weekly now because the State updates the Dashboards on Tuesdays now.  There's a table with basic stats that go back to March 2020, though changes in the Dashboards over time means some of those numbers are no longer available.  

I'm putting his post up to remind people that about 388 people died in the last week in the US and about five of those were Alaskans.   I know everyone, including me, wants life to be 'normal', but we aren't there yet.  

Here's yesterdays's weekly update over on theAlaska Daily COVID-19 Count 3 - May 2021 - ??? page you can find just below the orange header.  

Tuesday, December 20, 2022 - numbers moving in the wrong direction. Today was the catchup day for reporting deaths.  There were 19 COVID deaths reported for the last four weeks.  About five per week.  And those are the ones directly related to COVID, not necessarily all the COVID related deaths.

There are 40 hospitalized COVID patients reported  - up seven from last week.  People on vents remains the same at one.  Available ICU beds statewide remains at 24, but Anchorage is down one bed at three.

380/375 new cases were reported.  That's up 26 from last week, but lower than previous weeks.  We'll see next week which direction those numbers take.  Other places are experiencing surges.  

While 57% of Alaskans got their initial vaccine shots, only 10.4% are up to date on boosters.  (Note the numbers oo the link changes over time)  Boosters and masks folks.  Even if you only get a mild case, you keep the virus alive and spreading to people whose bodies are not as resistant as yours.  

Here's a link to make a vaccine appointment.

What's The Big Deal About 2022? It's An Arbitrary Number. Think Bigger

A goal of this blog is to get people to break out of patterns of thinking so they can see the world or some portion of the world differently.  To step back and recognize '"truths" they believe as actually just one way of knowing the world.  

So New Years Day seems a good time to meddle with our concept of being in 2022.  Because for Jews New Years happened several months ago and it is 5782.  For Chinese, New Year is a month off and it will be 4730.  For Thais the New Year will begin in Aril and they will usher in the year  2565.

It's good to have rituals around time.  They help us step back and think about what we've done over a period of time. Teaching is a great profession because you get to start fresh with each semester - it's not just one continuous long slog.  Birthdays help us reflect as do anniversaries.  Or the changing seasons.  

But it's also important to remember how arbitrary the numbers can be.  There is some connection to the natural world.  365 days is close to how long it takes the earth to revolve around the sun.  But other cultures pin their years to the moon.  But much about time is a human decision about how things should be.  

Calendars Through The Ages tells us:

Before today’s Gregorian calendar was adopted, the older Julian calendar was used. It was admirably close to the actual length of the year, as it turns out, but the Julian calendar was not so perfect that it didn’t slowly shift off track over the following centuries. But, hundreds of years later, monks were the only ones with any free time for scholarly pursuits – and they were discouraged from thinking about the matter of "secular time" for any reason beyond figuring out when to observe Easter. In the Middle Ages, the study of the measure of time was first viewed as prying too deeply into God’s own affairs – and later thought of as a lowly, mechanical study, unworthy of serious contemplation.

As a result, it wasn’t until 1582, by which time Caesar’s calendar had drifted a full 10 days off course, that Pope Gregory XIII (1502 - 1585) finally reformed the Julian calendar. Ironically, by the time the Catholic church buckled under the weight of the scientific reasoning that pointed out the error, it had lost much of its power to implement the fix. Protestant tract writers responded to Gregory’s calendar by calling him the "Roman Antichrist" and claiming that its real purpose was to keep true Christians from worshiping on the correct days. The "new" calendar, as we know it today, was not adopted uniformly across Europe until well into the 18th century.

The same site tells us about the beginning of counting the years.  

"Was Jesus born in the year 0?

No.

There are two reasons for this:

There is no year 0.

Jesus was born before 4 B.C.E.

The concept of a year "zero" is a modern myth (but a very popular one). In our calendar, C.E. 1 follows immediately after 1 B.C.E. with no intervening year zero. So a person who was born in 10 B.C.E. and died in C.E. 10, would have died at the age of 19, not 20.

Furthermore, as described in section 2.14, our year reckoning was established by Dionysius Exiguus in the 6th century. Dionysius let the year C.E. 1 start one week after what he believed to be Jesus’ birthday. But Dionysius’ calculations were wrong. The Gospel of Matthew tells us that Jesus was born under the reign of king Herod the Great, who died in 4 B.C.E.. It is likely that Jesus was actually born around 7 B.C.E.. The date of his birth is unknown; it may or may not be 25 December."

 I'd note for those Christians who feel they are discriminated against, most of the world uses the Western calendar that is roughly based on the birth of Christ.  Even if they also have calendars based on other events.  

Let's look at some other New Years from different cultures.

Indian New Year Diwali

"One of the most celebrated Indian New Year is 'Diwali' ', which means 'the celebration of lights'. Deepavali symbolize the starting of the Hindu New Year which is generally the main holiday of India. This festival is celebrated in the month of Kartika, which generally falls in the October. Diwali is an holiday in India, Nepal, Guyana, Malaysia and Singapore. Even though, it is a Hindu festival and has deep Hindu mythology connected with its origin, people from different religions also celebrate Diwali. As the name implies, Diwali is celebrated with lights, lamps and fireworks. The main reason behind Diwali celebration is to get away of the evil, which is symbolized as darkness, and to follow the paths of virtue."

From The Heart of Hinduism:

"Various eras are used for numbering the years; the most common are the Vikrami Era, beginning with the coronation of King Vikram-aditya in 57 BCE and the Shaka Era, counting from 78 CE. In rituals the priest often announces the dates according to KaliYuga, (see Kala: Time). For these three systems, the year 2000 corresponds to 2057, 1922, and 5102 respectively, though the last figure is subject to some debate."

Telugu New Year

"is known as Ugadi, which is derived from "Yuga Aadi" means New Age. According to the Hindu mythology Lord Brahma has created universe on Chaitra Shuddha Prathpade thus Telugu New Year is celebrated on Chaitra Shuddha Prathipade which is also first day of the lunar calendar. Telugu New Year is bright full moon day of the first month of spring."

Enkutatash – Ethiopian New Year!

"Every year on September 11, Ethiopians celebrate their New Year. The holiday is called “Enkutatash,” which literary means the “gift of jewels.” This naming came from the legendary visit of the Ethiopian Queen Sheba to that of King Solomon of Jerusalem back in 98 BC. During her visit, this famous queen of Ethiopia brought the king a collection of “jewels.” Upon her return home, the queen was restocked with a new supply of “enku” (jewels) for her treasury.

Ethiopians called the New Year “Enkutatash” because the period the queen arrived back to Ethiopia coincided with the New Year’s celebration in September. Celebrating the New Year in September, however, is originally connected to the Bible as it is the period that God created the Heavens and the Earth and so this period should be the beginning of a New Year."

Songkran - Thailand  From a post I did in 2008 when we were living in Chiangmai.

Chiang Mai.com gives an overview of the holiday of Songkran (the link is no longer any good)

"The family sprinkling scented water from silver bowls on a Buddha image is a ritual practiced by all Thais in on the third day of Songkran, known as Wan Payawan. This is the first official day of the New Year and on this day people cleanse the Buddha images in their homes as well as in the temples with scented water. The family is dressed in traditional Thai costume and wearing leis of jasmine flower buds. The water is scented with the petals of this flower."

I'd recommend visiting the post this comes from to see how it goes from a reverend washing of Buddhas to a free for all water fight in the streets.  

She knows I have a camera, so she's offering to douse me just a little bit.  It ended up down my back.  There are over three posts on our Songkran in Chiangmai.

And there's a Part 2 and Part 3 as well that go into different aspects of Songkran.

This year in Thailand the new year will be 2565

The Burmese New Year is related to the Thai New Year.

"Burma’s most important festival

Taking place from April 13 to 16 each year, the Buddhist festival of Thingyan is celebrated over four to five days, culminating on the Lunar New Year Day.

Water throwing is the distinguishing feature of this festival, and you’ll find people splashing water at each other almost everywhere in the country.

Thingyan traces its roots back to a Hindu myth. The King of Brahmas called Arsi, lost a wager to the King of Devas, Thagya Min, who decapitated Arsi. Miraculously, the head of an elephant was placed onto Arsi’s body, and he then became Ganesha.

The Hindu god was so powerful that if his head was thrown into the sea it would dry up immediately. If it were thrown onto land it would be scorched. If it were thrown up into the air the sky would burst into flames.

Thagya Min therefore ordained that Ganesha’s head be carried by one princess after another who took turns for a year each. The new year thus has come to signify the this annual change of hands."

Chinese New Year:  (This is a great site, with almost everything you could want to know about Chinese New Year)

"Chinese New Year is celebrated by more than 20% of the world. It’s the most important holiday in China and to Chinese people all over. Here are 21 interesting facts that you probably didn’t know about Chinese New Year.

1. Chinese New Year is also known as the Spring Festival

In China, you’ll hear it being called chunjie (春节), or the Spring Festival. It’s still very wintry, but the holiday marks the end of the coldest days. People welcome spring and what it brings along: planting and harvests, new beginnings and fresh starts."

This year it begins on February 1, 2022 and it will be the Year of the Tiger.  It will be the year 4720.

Jewish New Year - The ten days between Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur are very holy days - time to reflect on one's failings and to ask for forgiveness from God and from those you have wronged.  It's also a time to forgive those who have wronged you.  It's currently the year 5782.

You can see more here.

So let's not get so hung up on 2022.  Today is just another day, following yesterday.  Let's be sensible in dealing with COVID. 

1.   Let's work hard to preserve the US democracy - with time and with money. Write your members of Congress.  Help those organizations fighting voter suppression.  And figure out who is doing Stacy Abrams work in your state.  And if nobody is, find some partners and do it yourself.   

2.  And let's also do everything we can to take national and world action to minimize the impacts of climate change.  For that, I'd suggest connecting with Citizens Climate Lobby, the most focused and efficient organization I know of.  

3.  Be kind, but not a sucker.  Know your power - don't underestimate it or overestimate it - and stand up to bullies when that's feasible and protect others who are targeted.  Take a self defense class if you feel threatened.  Our former president has given his followers to act on their worst impulses.  But don't give up.  The super power I wish on everyone is the power to make everyone around you feel loved.  

 

Some First Quick Thoughts On The Matsu Suit Against The Redistricting Board's Plan

Tthe first suit against the Alaska Redistricting Proclamation Plan has been filed.  By Matsu.  Back in September when all the alternative plans came in, there was one from Matsu.  But when I asked about it, the Board's Executive Director told me 

"The one wrinkle that has emerged is that Mat-Su and AFFER’s plans appear to be identical."

I assumed that's why we never saw that map again.  But I can't find it on the Board's map page, so I can't compare.  AFFER is the group that Randy Ruedrich makes maps for - a very Republican leaning group.

Anyway13. According to the 2020 United States census, Alaska had a population of 733,391 residents, an increase of 23,160 residents. The MSB had a population of 107,081, an increase of 18,086 residents, representing 78 percent of the statewide population growth. 

 the Alaska Landmine put up a link to the suit.  

A quick perusal suggests two major grievances:

1. Getting paired with Valdez in one district
2. Being overpopulated

AFFER made a big deal about keeping district deviations low.  But as I looked at the suit, I found these statements surprising:

13. According to the 2020 United States census, Alaska had a population of 733,391 residents, an increase of 23,160 residents. The MSB had a population of 107,081, an increase of 18,086 residents, representing 78 percent of the statewide population growth. 

30. Every House District within the MSB (25, 26, 27, 28, 29 and 30) exceeds the quotient for the ideal House District. Combined, the total overpopulation of the districts is 13.75 percent. This represents the most significant deviation of any geographic area in the State of Alaska as proposed in the Final Plan. 

31. Comparing the MSB to Anchorage, Anchorage has 18 House Districts included in the Final Plan, of those 18 only two are overpopulated, thus the Anchorage House Districts are underpopulated by 10.02 percent. 

They seem to be monkeying around with percentages to make the Matsu grievances seem terrible.

In 13) they tell us that Matsu had 78% of the growth in the state.  OK, so what difference does that make?  That was, in people, not percentages,18,086.  That's about 269 people under one new ideal House  district.  And Matsu got  a new district..  

In 30)  they again play with percentages.  This looks so obvious that I'm wondering if I'm missing something.  You can't add up percentages to get the cumulative percentage.   Lots of people make this kind of mistake apparently.

"The common error is taking the percentages at face value and adding them together to get the overall percentage change."

Each of these percentages represents district deviation / total district population.

So you have to add up the numbers, not the percentages.  First add the number of people over or under the ideal district size for each district.  Then divide that number by the ideal district size (18335) * 6 (districts)..  Then you do the math to get the percentage of the six districts altogether.   

If you add the number of people above the ideal number (18,335) of people per district, it comes to 2520.  

If you divide that 2520 by the whole population of the Matsu's six districts which they tell us is 107,081 (2520/107,081) the Matsu area is over populated by 2.4%, not 13.75%.  I know Randy Ruedrich is smarter than that, so someone else must have done it, or he must think that the judges would be fooled.  No, he's smarter than that too.  So who did the math

I did not go through all the Anchorage districts to add all the numbers, but the same rule of math applies - you can't add the percentages, you have to add the numbers for each district and then divide the sum, by the total ideal population of all the districts.  

But look again.  They say that Anchorage has 18 House seats.  Throughout this process everyone has always said that Anchorage has 16 House seats.  And when I look at the final map of Anchorage I can only count 15 seats, because the 16th, District 24,  is north, off the map.

That's just a quick look.  These are pretty glaring errors that may torpedo this challenge.  

I do think that fact that Matsu altogether is overpopulated is a legitimate issue.  In urban areas, the deviations should really be about 1% or less  But only tiny parts of Matsu could be considered mini-urban areas.  The rest is more rural, so higher deviations are more acceptable because the population is so scattered.

And pairing Valdez with Matsu is also a potential problem. But finding the right place to put Valdez is hard, because you have to keep the deviations down.  

The issue of taking just Cantwell out of the rest of the Denali Borough is also a reasonable complaint.  The Board did this, as I recall, to include it with other Ahtna region villages.  

The argument that some people made at public hearings - that Matsu is the fastest growing part of the state, so it should be underpopulated to allow for growth - goes against the basic rule of redistricting.  That rule is that the numbers you use are the Census data numbers you are given.  Not some future expectation.  Who know for sure that Matsu will continue to grow into the future?  It has grown in the last two decades and may again.  But it may not.  While the suit points out Matsu's large population increase, I didn't see them making this argument.  

I'm waiting for someone to tell me I'm wrong.   These errors seem way too basic.   It would be embarrassing to be wrong about my math when criticizing someone else's math.  But I do acknowledge that possibility.   I must be missing something.  I have a toothache, so maybe it's messing with my mind.  

Alaska Redistricting Board: The Political Outcomes Of The Maps - A Different View

1. The Board has taken six different maps on the road and is sharing with the public.  
2. Two of the maps (Version3 and V4) are maps the Board members made.
3. The other four maps were made by 3rd parties interested in the process.  
1. AFFER - Alaskans For Fair And Equitable Redistricting
2. AFFR - Alaskans for Fair Redistricting
3. Doyon Coalition
4. Senate Minority Coalition  

You can get more information about the 3rd Parties in an earlier post.  Or you can look at the maps and see if you can guess which ones lean which way by the results.  Then check the link.

The Alaska Landmine published some maps and lists of information on how the maps impacted incumbents.  Here's the post for the Board's v3 and v4 maps.  Here's the post for the 3rd party maps.  The mapping and calculating the impact on incumbents were done by Robert Hockema.  

I've taken Hockema's lists and reorganized them in a way that makes it easier for me to see things clearly.  We all have different ways of taking in and making sense of information.  This works best for me.  But I want to thank Hockema for the work he did that lets us all understand how the different maps impact incumbents.  

Look at the charts.  I have some comments at the bottom, but I want you to raise your own questions and conclusions before you read my thoughts.  

[If I make the charts too big, they stretch over into the side column.  But these are higher than normal resolution and so you should be able to click on them to enlarge them.  If you're sight impaired, let me know and I can send you charts your computer can change to audio.]

1.  Board Map v3

2.  Board Map v4

3.  AFFER Map

4.  AFFR Map

5.  Doyon Coalition map

6.  Senate Minority Coalition Map

Thoughts

Factual Observations

1. All the maps pair some Democratic and some Republican incumbents and have districts with no incumbents
2. Some have more Democrats paired, others have more Republicans paired
3. Four of the six have at least one Democrat paired with a Republican 

Some Background

1. The Board agreed early on to "not protect incumbents."  They never agreed to "not target incumbents."  I pointed this out at public testimony and requested they add 'no targeting' to assure the public that the maps were not intentionally aimed at blocking certain incumbents.  They haven't done that.
2. The Board's executive director has publicly stated on various occasions that the Board's data base does not have political information in it.  Thus, to intentionally gerrymander, a Board member must 
1. already know where incumbents live
2. get that information from someone other than fellow Board members or Board staff, OR
3. have some other means of going after incumbents
3. In Anchorage, the bowl tends to be more Democratic in the north parts and more Republican in the south and hillside parts.  
4. The current districts tend to go north-south.
5. To pair Democrats in Anchorage without knowing exactly where they live, one could switch the north-south orientation of northern districts to east-west and probably catch some incumbents in the same district. 
6. Before mapping began, Board member Marcum mentioned several times that she'd heard from the public that east-west maps made more sense than north-south maps.
7. I also asked, in public testimony, that Board members publicly report if they got mapping advice from people other than Board members or staff, that was NOT given to them in public testimony.  Two Board members did publicly state they did not get information from anyone but Board members and staff.  The other three have not.  

Evaluative Observations

1. It's probably difficult to make maps that don't pair any incumbents while meeting the basic criteria for legitimate maps (compactness, contiguity, socio-economic integration, and low deviation) - but not impossible 
2. One can infer that some maps intentionally paired incumbents, that is they gerrymandered the maps to improve the outcomes in the elections for one party or another.  We can't know for sure, but given the leanings of the map makers, and peculiarities in some maps, it seems likely.
3. It's my sense that while some Board members and 3rd Party map makers have sincerely used the mapping criteria to try to make fair maps, some, when explaining how and why they made the maps appeared to be using the criteria to justify what appear to be gerrymandering attempts.  

At What Point Is A Politician Liable For Deaths Because Of His Actions Or Inactions?

Retired pilot Dave Bronson took office as Anchorage's new mayor on Thursday, July 1.  That was at a time when Alaska's COVID situation was relatively low.  So low that the State Health and Human Services Department only posted new numbers Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays.  So my starting date on this chart is Friday, July 2, 2021.  My ending date is Thursday, September 23.  Yes, they went back to reporting the numbers five days a week.  There was a Friday report too.  One of the worst ever.  They added 41 deaths and the new resident case total was 1729.  The highest ever.  But that report included a lot of backlogged numbers.  Most of the deaths probably happened during Bronson's tenure, but the new cases inflated that one day total. I decided the Thursday report was damning enough.  

These numbers are for the whole state of Alaska, and the Mayor of Anchorage is only in charge of Anchorage, But Anchorage is by far the largest city in the state with almost half the population, and people from nearby the Matsu borough and the Kenai Peninsula work and shop in Anchorage.  Plus it's the transportation hub of the state.  Many people outside of Anchorage have to fly through Anchorage on the way to other places.  It's also the medical center of Alaska, the place where people from more rural areas, with smaller hospitals or just clinics, come for more serious health needs.  So what the Mayor of Anchorage does regarding COVID affects more than just Anchorage.   

Our mayor came into office  having at various times denied COVID was a serious problem.  He thinks people's individual liberties are violated by mask mandates and vaccine mandates. And that the health restrictions harm business more than the virus.  He recently said he didn't know what more he could do.  

The alarming change in the COVID numbers is the result of his willful ignorance.  His stubborn clinging to bullshit information.  (Sorry, misinformation is much too tepid a term for the organized and profitable propaganda that is aimed at Trump supporters.)

My sense is that Bronson is the kind of man who rarely if ever acknowledges he's wrong.  Maybe on something minor like flipping a coin.  But he's been adamantly certain about LGBTQ issues for many years.  It's hard for a man like him to do the right thing after investing so much of himself to following the wrong path.  And because he's mayor, his actions and or lack of actions, impact tens of thousands of people. 

 One hundred and forty-four people have died since he took over Anchorage.  

• Let's drop half of them as not Anchorage related.  
• Let's skip the first month in office (there were only 12 deaths reported between July 2 and August 2). That leaves us 132 deaths. 
• Let's cut out 50% of deaths since August 2,  since Anchorage only has half of Alaska's population.  That leaves us 66 deaths.  
• Let's just arbitrarily say that 10% (and this is really low) of those could have been avoided had Bronson taken rigorous action against the spread of COVID in Anchorage.  

That would be six people who would probably be alive, but for  Bronson's inaction.  Probably a lot more.  He may be passionate about the life of every single fertilized human egg that is created, but actual birthed human beings seem much less important to him.   And we're not even talking about all the people who have been very ill.  Or the businesses that are suffering because people are cautious about going out in public because the of huge surge in COVID cases.  

Why Alaskans Need To Vote - 25% of Eligible Voters Voted For Our Governor; 19% Voted For Anchorage Mayor

As Alaskans watch our COVID numbers continue to go up, our Governor and Anchorage's Mayor make no serious efforts to curb the pandemic.  This is what happens when people think their vote doesn't matter.  

In 2018, 285,009 or 49.54% of eligible voters voted. 

In the Governor's race, Dunleavy got 51.4% of the votes.  

That means  25% of eligible voters voted for the current Governor

In 2021, 90,816, or 38.36%, of Anchorage voters voted in the mayoral runoff.

Bronson got 50.66% of those votes.

That means he got elected with 19.4% of eligible Anchorage voters.  

COVID Crisis In Anchorage Hospitals

 As some of you know, in addition to my regular posting here, I also do daily updates of Alaska COVID stats in a tab above which also has a chart of those number going back to March 15, 2020.  Those reports were filling up this regular blog post space, so I pushed them into the tab.  But every now and then I spill over from just reviewing the new numbers to adding additional context.  That happened today as we hit a new pandemic  high for new resident cases and for Test Positivity. And the number of COVID patients in our hospitals is only slightly below Monday's all time high.  So I'm copying today's Alaska COVID update here.

Wednesday, September 15, 2021 - We need a new way of classifying insane.  Doctors from Providence Medical Center testified at the Assembly that we are in a health crisis and that 30% of their patients are COVID positive and require much more intensive care, and people jeered them and Assembly Member Allard questioning the veracity of their testimony.

From Hrrrl Scouts Twitter coverage of Assembly

They Mayor of Anchorage is quoted in the Anchorage Daily News today as having said last week that "hospital capacity issues weren't caused byCOVID-19 patients but nurses leaving their jobs over vaccination requirements."  I'm going to believe the doctor's knowledge about the hospital crisis over the Mayor's undocumented claims.

Meanwhile we have two more deaths reported today (nine reported in the last three days.)  18 more hospitalizations.  201(34) COVID patients in the hospital- one less overall from yesterday, but one more on vents.  Is it an improvement when we gain a hospital bed because two people died?  

1064/1068 new resident cases.  That's another  2021 record.  It's a pandemic record period for one day.  (If you scroll through the chart above you'll see some higher numbers in that column - but those are for more than one day (usually Mondays when three days are reported.)  27 new non-resident cases. 

Over 11,700 tests, a fairly high one day number, yet the Test Positivity went up from 9.1 to 9.62.  A couple of notes here.  1)  Test Positivity is on a rolling seven day average.  So, even though yesterday it reported 9.1, today it reports (for 9/13/21) 9.57. Adding today's high number and dropping off the number eight days ago, raises all the numbers.  and 2) Test Positivity is the percent of people tested who test positive.  So if the Test Positivity is high, it means you should test more.  I said 'yet' above because 11,000 tests is higher then normal for one day, but the number still went up.  We should be testing more.  But the staffing to do all the contact tracing is probably not available for this level of infection.  

I'm not including the chart.  You can see that at the Alaska Daily COVID-19 Count 3 - May 2021 - ???  above.  

Alaska Redistricting Board Meeting - Compactness v Deviation And Other Issues

I had trouble with the online broadcasts yesterday and today again they kept dropping off.  So I got to the Board Meeting around 10:30.  Here's an overview of the post:

OVERVIEW

• My observations of the day
• What they were doing - mapping Matsu, Kenai, and Anchorage for initial proposal due Sept 10
• Issues that Came Up 
• Census Block Issues - 45,000 blocks in 2010, only in 2020
• Balancing the State required criteria
• Socio-Economic coherence
• Compactness versus Deviation
• Aesthetic compactness versus meaningful compactness
• Deviation matters
• A few other things to consider
• My very, very rough notes of the meeting

My Observations

What they were doing - mapping Matsu, Kenai, and Anchorage for initial proposal due Sept 10

Background:  The State Constitution gives the Boar 30 days from the day they receive the official Census data from the Bureau of the Census to come up with the first draft proposal to present to the residents of Alaska.  This time the Bureau sent out data on August 12, but said it wasn't official yet.  Then later they said it was official.  Thus the Board lost a week or more while they were waiting for the official data.  

They didn't totally lose that time because they were training on the map software and the Board's staff was already working with the preliminary data (that turned out to be the official data).  But they were behind the 2010 Board which had their first big public meeting on the day they got the data on March 15, 2011. 

So the Board has tried to find a way to divide the parts of the state and have different members work on mapping them.  Apparently, yesterday, they agreed on much of the state, at least preliminarily, because today they were focused on Matsu, Kenai, and Anchorage.  

When I got to the meeting they were comparing different versions of Matsu prepared by Board Member Bethany Marcum and Member Nicole  Borromeo.  Later they moved on to Kenai which Board Member Budd Simpson had worked on with Executive Director Peter Torkelson.  And then they started looking at Anchorage - again maps from Bethany and Nicole.

Finally there was a Public Testimony - two people attending the Anchorage hearing live spoke - Robin  O’Donahue and Dave Dunsmuir  both from a group called Alaskans for Fair Redistricting that has  union and other support.  

Issues - Census Block problems

In the 2010 Census, Alaska was divided into 45,000 or so Census Blocks - the smallest units of geography as I understand it.  The 2020 Census divided Alaska into 28,000 Census Blocks.  So there are now fewer, but larger blocks for the Board to work with.  

Let me give you an example from Matsu - though for this example it doesn't matter where.  I was using the free public map making software available here on the Board's website.  

On the map below, the grey lines outline Census Blocks.  Some are much bigger than others.  Until you pick a block and add it to your map, you can't tell what the population will be.  So, I have picked  one fairly large block - colored in with blue.  On the right side you can get data.  Circled in red is where the population data goes.  But as you can see there is nothing there.  That means this census block has no population.  I'm guessing it's something like the Palmer Hay Flats.  It's a huge block with no population. 

Next, I've added a much smaller block - circled in red.  In the population column we've added 49 people.  

Now I've added to more small blocks (in the red circle) and now we have 261 people total of the four blocks.  

And now I've added this big squiggly block which added another 179 people for a total of 540.  

Now I've added one more block smaller than the last one (again circled in red) and that added 72 more people  and got the total to 712.

The point is that these census blocks are all sorts of shapes.  The Board staff says they're not sure how the blocks were drawn.  Small ones can have more people than much larger ones.  So when members are trying to make a smooth compact district that is as closely to the others in population, they are stuck with these odd shaped blocks that can make a district look weird to the average person.  Why is that jagged edge sticking out?  Well the answer could be - it was the only block we could pick that would get the right number of people into the district.  Remember, every district needs to be as close to 18,335 people as possible. (Total population divided by 40 districts.)

This final map looks at a much larger area than the previous maps.  You can barely see the districts I marked.   I did this to make the point that in the big picture, the blocks I picked out amounted to only 712 people out of a district that will need  18,335 people.  (This area which is mostly Matsu will have about six districts.)  And the Board will have to create 40 districts.  The real problems are where one district meets another.  That's when this sort of detailing has to happen.  

This is a very tedious process.  

Issues:  Balancing the State required criteri

• Socio-Economic comparability,  compactness, contiguity, and deviation (how much a district deviates from the 18,335 number that is the ideal size per district (total population divided by 40 House seats.)

The State Constitution requires the districts to have socio-economic compatibility.  That means the people in the district should have interests in common - they live in the same town or city or borough.  They face the same geographical and economic issues. This might be indicated by where they shop (they're was testimony in an earlier meeting about "people in our community got to the Fairbanks Fred Meyer, not the one in Palmer" and "cold for us is -40˚, not 10˚. Basically a representative from this area would be representing people who face the same issues.  So the Board is trying to get rural communities together and urban communities together.  Matt Singer, the Board's attorney told them today that Court cases have agreed that people in the same city and borough have socio-economic compatibility. Everyone in Matsu meets this.  Everyone in Anchorage meets this.  And when Member Bethany Marcum wanted to add a little bit of the northern Anchorage area into Matsu, Singer said the courts had said Matsu and Anchorage have socio-economic compatibility.  

I don't think that's a problem when you include places like Eklutna with parts of Southern Matsu.  But it would be more troubling if you were adding Sutton to Fairview (which would be hard to do because they're so far apart.  

But I also think we have a new measure for whether boroughs have socio-economic compatibility - vaccination rates.  Anchorage, as of today, has 65% of people over 12 with at least one vaccination.  Matsu is 44%.  That means Matsu has 66% unvaccinated!  That's a big gap that probably says more about compatibility than a lot of traditional measures.  

Issue:  Aesthetic Compactness versus Meaningful Compactness

Members Bethany Marcum and Nicole Borromeo both made maps for Matsu and for Anchorage and when they presented them, the two gave different weights to these two criteria.  Marcum was constantly trying to get rid of gaps and protrusions.  

These protrusions I've circle in red from this map of Matsu is what I mean.  The ideal of compactness means that you wouldn't have any of these things sticking out.  The ideal maps would be a bunch of square districts.  But topography is shaped by rivers and hills and marshes.  And populations aren't evenly divided into neat squares.  

Pennsylvania 
districts

The point of compactness in part is to make sure people in a district are compatible.  It's easier for a representative to get around the smallest possible district.  But in Alaska with its small population and huge physical size makes this impossible.  We have districts off the road where representatives can spend thousands of dollars to get to a remote village and districts where the representative can walk from one end of the district to the other in less than a day.  

But another key reason for compact districts without weird protrusions is to prevent gerrymandering.

On the right are silhouettes of some Pennsylvania districts.  These were designed in 2010 to tilt a state with more Democratic than Republican voters so that had majorities in most of the districts.  You can do this by cramming most Democrats into a few districts so that Republicans are competitive or have a majority in all the others.  But to do that you have to make very weird districts.

The protrusions on the Matsu map are there because of geography, population, and odd shaped Census blocks.  Getting rid of all the bumps makes the maps more aesthetically pleasing, but doesn't have a meaningful outcome.  Alaska's warts - at least on the maps we saw today of Matsu are not an issue.  

This link takes you to 538's page on Pennsylvania's extremely uncompact districts.  

Issue: Is Compactness More Important than Deviation?

The deviation standard derives from the US Constitution's requirement of one person - one vote.

Certainly it could be.  But in the maps we saw today, the answer is clearly no.  Deviation refers to deviation from the ideal district size of 18,335.  If all 40 districts have exactly that many people, then every representative and every senator would represent the exact same number of people.  Of course the Census' state population number was measured in 2020 and the population changes all the time (which is why the Census counts every ten years, so we can recalibrate.)

The deviation of any one district should not be more than 10%, and that's would be acceptable only in extreme cases.  Say a sparsely populated rural area where it was really hard to get enough people without grossly violating the other criteria of compactness, socio-economic, and contiguity.  (Contiguity didn't come up today.  It just means that all parts of the district have to be geographically connected to each other.)

The issue was that Matsu was about 2% under populated.  That means that six districts (Matsu has enough population with the Denali Borough to have six districts almost) will have the same number of representatives as six other districts but with a smaller population.  Two percent for any one district is well within the standards, but if you take a whole region that elects candidates of one party, it means other districts that are overpopulated aren't getting one vote per person.  It wasn't clear if the six districts in Matsu were cumulatively underpopulated by 2% or each district was 2% underpopulated. 

Issues - A Few Other Things to Remember

The maps the Board is now drawing will result in a proposed map for Alaska.  There will be several other maps submitted by other groups.  Then these maps will be shared with people around the state.  The Board will split up and travel around to meet with people and find out the issues that these maps present that are problems for local areas.    They have sixty days from September 10 to then develop their final proposed map.  

So there will be lots of feedback and lots of work before we get to the final proposed map.  Then they have to do things like pair up the 40 2House districts into 20  Senate districts.

NOTES

I did my best to record what people said.  I'm a reasonably good typist but I'm not court transcriber.  So there are lots of gaps and ??? where I wasn't sure.  And it's not verbatim.  But it will give you an idea of what was said.  I tried to put times in now and then.  When the tapes and transcripts come out, you  may have a better idea of what you're looking for.  

Ak Redistricting Board  Wed Sept 8, 2021

Arrived at 10:50

Taking about Denali Borough - only 1700?? People, has to be part of another district.

Which of the three Matsu’s should we use.  

Peter Tolkerson (Executive Dir)Matsu B would be under about 2%.  Reflects deviation  of Borough’s ??

Budd Simpson - all the community boundaries and local boundaries, ask Nicole that some of hers were not as tight. Otherwise easier to stick with these more compacts

Nicole - accepted city boundaries and didn’t let the rural creep into the city boundaries

Bethany - all had city boundaries in tact, but let some of rural in

Nicole - some rural areas  were put into cities

Bethany - you’ll see Wasilla and Palmer - green in between is a question of whether you add these to one side - core Matsu, suburban, not considered rural areas

Still feel Bethany’s version maintains socio-economic goals, cause hers seems more compact

Nicole - I think  our maps have more in common than not, she’s just gone out in a different direction to pull people in.  This is my first time looking at Bethany’s map.  Preliminary view I don’t see pitfalls, I get it, it looks prettier.

Peter:  This is a starting point and make adjustments from there

Nicole - wanted to be respectful of public testimony.  Heard from Delta Sutton area feel they are pulled in and they become Matsu Palmer seats and lose their distinction.  

Nicole - Way to overlay my map over Bethany’s?  

Peter:  Map overlay  [I had trouble figuring out what the map overlays showed]

John:  Within borders of borough, socio-economic ok, but next looking at compactness and one vote.

Nicole - I think my deviations are smaller than Bethany’s

John:  But compactness becomes important.  The more irregular looking, you potentially get into odd shapes that raise questions about compactness.  Within a percent or two of deviation, I think compactness becomes more important.  

Wraps around Wasilla

Nicole:  I see hers is more compact, Maybe I’m not seeing something.  Move on.

Nicole:  I’m fine with Bethany’s version.  And Anchorage creeps up into Matsu.

John:  When we put Denali Borough in, that won’t happen. 

Peter:  20 minute exercise to adjust it in, then wave of changes will probably touch every district.  

Palmer is one, Wasilla is one and Big Lake is one.  

John:  Let’s stand at ease.  20-30 minutes to integrate this into draft we’ve been working on.  Stand at ease.  

Break:  Bethany:  I like both of those better than the Anchorage stand alone.  Move ER, Eklutna up toward Matsu

11:16

Peter break  

45,292 census blocks to 28,000 blocks - makes fine tuning difficult.  Members want to add a little section and get some weirdly shaped block.  

11:42  Back in session

TJ:  Overview of Bethany’s map - added Denali B to Matsu, six districts 15, 16, 17 18, 19, 20

Added Anchorage north, but didn’t fill that out yet.  

SE, North, SW, Bristol Bay,  some discussion of inside Fairbanks, Finished Matsu area.  Haven’t discussed Kenai P. Or Gulf Coast, and Whittier is without a Borough.  

Peter:  Remaining:  reconcile new deviations by taking out Nenana and ????  - deviations have increased, B can refine those now or we can come back later for that.

5.92 districts - all will be under.  18 suffered loss when let Nenana go.  Equalize that loss when dealing with other district boundaries.  Does 18 abut to the north?  

That’s the Denali B line.  Stops around Houston.  

Bethany:  Where does Denali B. stop.  

Right here.  

John:  Greatest deviation?  A:  18 down 581  - they are all negative - [meaning they have more representation]

[They’re adding blocks to make things look cleaner - that is there aren’t strange spaces breaking up an area.  

19 and 20 deviation spread]

Bethany - we have that nice straight line though

Nicole, but if 

Made little change, doesn’t mess with compactness much.  Now they are just grabbing population and there is no consideration of neighborhoods being discussed.

John:  Let’s move on

Nichole:  Would like to see those numbers closer.  15 is too big.  Compared to 

Debate between Bethany and Nicole - Deviation is not part of the big three, 

John:  First look at socio-economical compatibility, then compact, then 

Melanie - we can still do this later.  

Attorney:  the change didn’t change compactness, but got more even deviation.  If you have odd shaped districts not good.  [Compact doesn’t mean smooth]

Peter:  

Bethany:  My preference.  Recommended not break B boundary in more than one direction.  South, including Whittier, still breaking to south

John:  I don’t recall that being critical importance

Bethany:  No problem with South Knik

Attorney:  Courts have said that Matsu and Anchorage are socio-economically the same.

Bethany:  Include Anchorage

Nicole:  John made strong argument for strong B boundary and here we have great deviation

John:  Difference between preservingAnchorage and Matsu with protecting Fairbanks

Nicole:  I don’t think so.  

Budd:  800 people leave in Anchorage or better used in Matsu.  

Peter:  word Better is something you can decide.  Anchorage is less underpopulated than Matsu.  

Budd:  Better area - it’s not in Anchorage Borough, nice line 

Bethany:  Equalization as opposed to deviations.

Attorney:  First is to have compact and then obligation one person one vote.  Where you feel that closer to equalize, create districts that are no longer compact.  

Bethany:  That last ??? completely changed compactness, but didn’t effect deviation that much.  Won’t be possible in Anchorage.  

Nicole:  Explain to me how that compactness.

Nicole:  The way that city is drawn is part of the problem.  

Melanie:  Time for a break, need to walk around even if lunch not here

12:11 

John - back, about 1pm  get finished by 3.   Lunch supposed to be here by now.

12:25 - everyone back in seats and discussing maps - CLEARLY this has become an illegal meeting and Peter is trying to scatter the Board members.  Several leave.  Now Budd is talking about coconut oil.  

Lunch arrived about 12:50

Back at 1:18

John:  Lunch late being delivered.  This room will have 3pm public meeting so we will get out by 3:45.  Should we move on to Anchorage?  Sounds like it.  Let’s move on

Peter:  Good to move to Anchorage, but we haven’t done Kenai and Anchorage will probably take a long time.

John:  Sounds ok.  

Peter:  Kenai Pen - goes to Yakatat Borough, Cordova.  Few members and I worked on this all day after last meeting.  Added additional members throughout following week.  Discovered the Cordova and Kodiak and NE Kachemak Bay have long time ties to Kodiak.  

Looking at 11, 12, 13, and 14.  Kenai-Cordova  3.3, 2.4   with Kodiak 4.09 districts.  Each is overpopulated by 1.2 to 2%.  Trying to spread that across the district.  Without Kachemak silo area, you can take city of Seward and give Kachemak back to Homer.  But then with Seldovia etc.  no one was happy.  But adding Cordova and Kodiak allows deviations that are reasonably close.   

This is just a starting point.  Could put Cordova with interior   or connect Seward and Homer.  Population comes out.  Kasilof Nikiski other options.  

Budd:  Comment, Peter and I spent a lot of time on this, seems really difficult coming up with rational explanation.  I think this is an elegant solution to difficult district.

Bethany:  Shape of appendage would be better if fixed.  Doesn’t change deviation.

Peter:  Want to improve that.  But hard to make a cleaner line.  Feature of underlying census geography government made.  

Melanie:  Socio-Economy pitfalls of this?  

Peter:  Critique Katchemak silo area, connections to Homer.  Not violating city boundaries, but just connections.  

Eric:  Fox River ???  Takes in several areas.

Bethany:  Part of map - 

Eric:  Katchemak Silo, ??? And ???  Not census blocks but are communities.

Bethany:  

Matt - North Kenai paired with Anchorage and that has passed Court rulings.  This Board seems to be going toward community boundaries.  Court has approved of Gulf Coast districts in the past.  Don’t see any show stoppers here.

John:  Let’s move on to Anchorage.

Peter:  How should we proceed.  We can show member versions.  

John:  Nicole?

Nicole:  Mine doesn’t work any more because I included Valdez.

Bethany:  I have one version.

Peter:  We can show the differences on the screen.  But merging, I think we should do tomorrow - long technical process.  Nicole’s Anchorage for her Northern portion 

TJ:  Bethany’s 

??  Bethany Markam on the left.  

Bethany:  Started with existing districts.  Then realized having existing districts in place misleading and then just turned them off.  I brought a map I’d worked on then kept getting odd shapes and still had a few appendages.  Let’s take this pop north and things would add up and get weird shape.  Then take it east and west instead.  Just by virtue of census block shapes that led to vertical rather than horizontal.  

Nicole - 

Bethany:  split east side and military.  Services and previous elmendorf and Richardson, split so they are socio-economic, not a big difference.  But also ER, trying to keep ER complete in one district instead of splitting it up.  Encompass ER, Chugiak, Eklutna - get more rural areas versus core of ER.  

TJ - two different maps - also Wasilla showed overlay one plan over the other.  Bethany versus Nicole Blue lines see differences.

District down 2%

Chukiak, Peters Creek, and ???  792 in there add to -256, added back to Matsu map.  

District 13  S. ER into one district

15 takes north and south forks with portion of east Anchorage.

Chugiak/Peters and majority of Fort Rich

Rest is self explanatory.  Nicole’s map on top

Nicole  - when I drafted didn’t have district boundaries and considering public testimony.  Didn’t get enough pop to make whole.  Wanted Chugiak, Peters whole without ER came down to border of ER proper and cover ER to be in own district.  Got much of base.  But service members all over community.

Inlet and Govt Hill (not Mt View) and tried to keep east districts in tact and not go into south Anchorage.  Census blocks made big differences.  West 17 and 15 are primary mid town districts and try to keep them east of Minnesota.  Then all the way over to Turnagain, Lake Hood, Spenard, then to Sandlake.  Follow creek boundaries.  14 needed to go into 15.  13 didn’t love this shape.  Once you get to end of mapping, have trouble.  Also, the way Census blocked this.  Some very wild census blocks.

10  big chunk of south Anchorage and hillside.  District 9 really deviates from map Board is producing.  Don’t look at 9.  Kitchen sink district.

John:  Hard for me.  I just don’t have an opinion on this.  Maybe Nicole and Marham work together and see what you come up with for those 16 seats.  OK    Do you want to take 20 minutes now.  We still have public testimony to hear.  In 20 minutes then get wrapped up to adjuourn.

Nicole:  I don’t think that’s realistic.  I think there’s a benefit for everyone participating.  

Fix Boundaries for Matsu and then 

Bethany:  Are we going to….

Matt Singer:  Going back to whether the 800 area of Knik.  AK Supreme Court said the two Boroughs are Socio-economically integrated.  If so, is moving those folks into Anchorage area to allow for less deviation is that practical.  We don’t combine communities where creates map that is not Socio-economically integrated.  So can’t use that as a strong justification for drawing the line.  Allow some blurring of line to get more population evenly distributed.  I know board focused on honoring political boundaries, but really one and the same. 

Peter:  Matsu districts are more underpopulated than Anchorage so moving that area to Matsu  improves the deviation.  Looking at the 22 seats rather than the 16 seats of Anchorage.

Matt:  I think that makes sense.  Try to balance pop among those 22 districts.  

Peter:  Will cause bringing Matsu district down into Anchorage because underpopulated.  

Bethany:  I’ve seen the court ruling that says Matsu and Anchorage are one socio-economic districts.  

Eric:  Anchorage, Denali Borough and Matsu together about 22 districts.  Every district down about 165.  

Peter:  But it will come up against compactness thing.  Still place for judgment.  We’re going to go south and get greater and greater underpopulation

John:  Let’s see what happens.  Let’s start at 18?

Matt:  Fair to say that board is being oversensitive to compactness when dealing with urban areas.  What’s a problem is weird corridors and appendages.  Intended to combat improper gerrymandering.  I’d say within these areas.  Is this generally a compact shape.  Does it make sense.  Not get overly caught up on jagged edge.  That’s a census block shape.  Wouldn’t concern yourself with that granular detail.  What’s troublesome, if you just focus on the numbers you can say, that looks like starfish or octopus.  Then courts say why.

John:  For the purpose of deviation we’re making them more odd shape.  Is it practicable to make odd shapes to get better numbers.  

Matt:  One side of the street or other side of street - does this make sense for the neighborhood.  If you’re down by 55 or 100 people that is a small deviation.  Good to make numbers match.  No court says you need exactly.  Why having computers do this versus experienced Alaskans.  A little more deviation ok.  

John:  Maybe this is a good time to take a break.  Need to get into public testimony.  Stop mapping for now.  Testimony until we need to vacate the room at 2:45.  

Testifying

Robin O’Donahue - Coordinate for Alaskans for Fair Redistricting and as life long Faribanksian.  

But Nicole’s question.  The split in Borough breaks community interest.  Does’t look at North south.  Ester, etc. connected to UA.  North Pole and ?  Are together.  Another way to think through school systems.  All feed to West Valley High School.  Don’t believe Chena Ridge and Salcha, you’d have to drive through all the others to get to that district.  Thank you.  

Nicole:  Is there anyway we can see your Fairbanks before next week?  If we have it in our binder before we finish.  

Robin:  Not bound to idea of keeping the Boroughs intact.  

John:  If asking AFFR giving us map early, then we should discuss with other groups.  

Peter:  If email map of just Fairbanks, in line with other groups

David Dunsmore:  Also AFFR, respectfully push back about historical ties of Kodiak to Kachemak .  The Old Believers split from New Believers.  Faced severe suppression and forced to Siberia.  Kodiak Island settled by Russians in 1784.  That split almost like Catholics and Protestants in Ireland.  The alternative would be Ninilchik.  Fox River has 634 Ninilchk has 845??  Ninilchik not a city but a census area.  Founded by Russians in 1700s.  

Peter:  Suggesting that old believers came over separately from Russians.  OB came in 1968 and founded Nikolias they shouldn’t be split into two different districts.  Stayed in Siberia until Soviet Union was oppressive, they moved to China, then Oregon, then Alaska. 

John:  There’s a good book on that 

Melanie:  Tried to find AFFR online  AKfariredistricting.org  Coalition of different orgs and individuals across the state.  AFL-CIO.  We’ve been internally meeting with Alaskans.  

2:39 - John:  No more testimony here or online.  Stand at Recess.