First Anchorage Election Results - Mayor Winning Reelection, Prop 1 Losing, All The Other Props Winning [UPDATED 4/5/18 7:30PM]

With the new voting by mail, I'm not quite sure what these tallies mean.  It says all precincts reporting.  And 23% is in the ballpark.  Last year's MOA election had a 23% turnout.  This first set of results should reflect the ballots cast at the few polling stations, at the drop off boxes through - maybe yesterday or earlier today, maybe even those in the boxes by 8pm.

That would leave those mailed in probably before Friday or Saturday.  So if there are 4% still out there, that would be about 8,000 votes left.  If the Yes vote for Prop 1 got 60% of the remaining votes (not likely) they'd add 4800 votes and the no votes would add 3200 votes.  So I'd guess that Prop 1 has been defeated.

The Prop 1 vote means that Anchorage no longer supports discrimination against GLBT folks.  Let's hope Jim Minnery finds a new hobby that doesn't involve disrupting other people's lives.

And if there are 8000 votes left, there is no way that Rebecca Logan could catch up with Mayor Berkowitz, even if she got all 8000 votes.

This is the closest school board race.  Tasha Hotch is less than 400 votes behind Alisha Hilde.  If there are 8000 votes still to be counted, even 4000, this race could change.

The other school board races had much bigger margins with

70% for Deena Mitchell
57% for Elisa Snelling

All the other propositions won with 60% or more.

You can see all the results at the official site here.   [UPDATE 4/4/16 - This link went to the PDF of the early results.  It doesn't update.  Here are the results as of 4:27pm today.  Everything seems to have stayed more or less the same with 8,000 more votes.  There must still be some outstanding votes, but I doubt that they will change any results.  This page has the link to the latest election results.]


[UPDATE 4/5/17 - There are more results today.  As I glanced over them the margin based on vote totals seem to increase slightly in most races while the percentage gaps decrease slightly.  Prop 1  has a 4035 vote gap now, but is now yes = 47.12 % and no= 52.88%.  They've counted 70,961 of 218,388 (32.49%).  There are probably some more mail in ballots trickling in. I don't see how they can change any of the races.]

Black Lives Matter Rally Anchorage

This seems to have been the theme for the Anchorage Black Lives Matter rally.











Here's part the crowd along Northern Lights and New Seward Highway about 9:30pm (yes, for you folks outside of Alaska, the sunset was still a couple hours away.)  The rally began at 8pm with representatives of the community and officials talking to the crowd.




Mayor Ethan Berkowitz (in the white shirt) talking to the crowd as everyone linked arms.














The police chief also spoke and here he is with the mayor listening to the other speakers.















Part of the crowd listening to the speakers.

















Lots of people had their cell phones and were talking pictures and videos, both the people in the rally, and later, cars driving by all the demonstrators and their signs.

More of the crowd listening.











Local NAACP member Kevin McGee, woman I don't know, Assembly member Forest Dunbar, and Mayor's staff member, George Martinez.








After the speeches, the crowd lined up along New Seward Highway and along Northern Lights and waved signs and chanted Black Lives Matter, and sometimes All Lives Matter.




 

I have to say that after last night's shootings in Dallas, I found myself wondering how safe going to this rally would be.  That's not really something I've dealt with before.  The only police I was aware of were the police chief and much later some officers who asked people to leave the median and go back to the side of the street where all the other protesters were.

And when people were lined up on New Seward Highway, I couldn't help think about some of the people driving by who would not agree with the sentiment of this rally.  And Alaskan's carry guns.  But many of the people driving by honked and waved in support and people kept calm and there was no violence.

I'm guessing there were 300-400 people there, though there could have been more.  People of a variety of racial backgrounds were there.  (I counted people along Northern Lights Blvd.  When I got 15, I just looked at similar sized clusters.  There were about 6 groups of 15 there.  Then I scanned the rest of the crowd and estimated from there.  Fairly simple, but it gives a reasonable ball park figure.)

If there were 400, that would be similar to a rally of about 10,000 in New York City.  (See my explanation of NY Equivalence in this 2008 post about a women's anti-Palin protest.  Populations have risen a bit and I haven't recalculated, but if NY's population increased about the same rate as Anchorage's did, it should be still pretty close.  The point is that while 400 people may not seem a lot, it's the equivalent of about 10,000 in New York City and that would be a big demonstration.)

Why I Live Here: Our Mayor Stops The Bragaw Extension

On one side, opposing the extension of the road through the university land where moose and other animals traverse, where cross country skiers ski, and nature reins, mostly, were all the surrounding community councils, the people who live near by.  Also opposed were the local Assembly members representing the area where the road would be and the state representative for that area and the state senator for that area.

On the other side, supporting the road, were the Department of Transportation, that ignored all the public comment over a several year process to continue to plan for a road.  DOWL Engineering that had the contract for the citizen participation process.  And apparently lots of builders and developers who were big supporters of former Mayor Sullivan who requested the state keep the road and got it along with a $20 million allocation into the state budget at the last minute several years ago.  Providence Hospital, the University of Alaska Anchorage, and Alaska Pacific University in meetings closed to the public gave support, though we aren't sure how strong it was and what incentives they were given.

Even though the state state budget was facing drastic cuts for school and many other essential services due to falling oil revenues, the state kept this project that was opposed overwhelmingly by people in the neighborhood.

Well, it turns out that what one mayor gives, another mayor can take away.  Still fairly new Anchorage mayor Ethan Berkowitz last week pulled the city's support of the road.  The state, saying that without the local support, would cut the project.

Along Northern Lights very near where the road would have gone

Lots of people fought long and hard to stop this unnecessary road which would have cut through what I've been calling Anchorage's Central Park.  It's a big green swath in midtown by the Universities, that is wonderful recreation site, and a natural infrastructure project that cleans the air and the water,
as well as preserving water that would otherwise end up in sewers and go out to see.  It quiets the region and provides refuse for moose and other animals and birds.  Think I exaggerate?
Read E.O. Wilson's The Future of Life.

I asked three of last April's mayoral candidates whether they would stop the road if elected.  Candidate Berkowitz gave the strongest indication that he would.

I thank him for keeping this campaign promise.  This is a big deal for the future of Alaska.

The people who want to connect every gap in every road, the people who make money from cutting trees and building things where they were and the politicians they support will be back on this sooner or later.  But for now, we're ok.  A big victory in the many battles for preventing Anchorage from looking like every other overdeveloped urban center and for preserving the reason that many of us live here.

Mayor's Inauguration Part 2: A Few More Shots

There were a lot of folks at the inaugural the other day.  I did an earlier post of all the past mayors who were there.  Here are some other images to show who some others in attendance. 






























Andrew Halcro, who was third in the original election and then threw his support behind Berkowitz in the runoff was there to watch the new mayor sworn in.















Noah Berkowitz-Kimmel introduced the new mayor. 

Former borough mayor Jack Roderick talking later to Willie Hensley

And there were a few dogs in attendance too.  I guess they want to make sure dog parks are a priority. 

Seven Living Mayors of Anchorage Gather For Berkowitz Inauguration

Click to make bigger and much clearer

I think there are six former Anchorage mayors in this picture.  Tony Knowles on the far right in blue, Rick Mystrom, George Wuerch,  Matt Claman (behind Weurch),  Dan Sullivan in the brown jacket. And I think it's Mark Begich barely visible between Mystrom and Wuerch.  Here's another of Begich later.  





And they're watching Anchorage's oldest living mayor (well, actually mayor of the former Borough of Anchorage) Jack Roderick swearing in Anchorage's newest mayor Ethan Berkowitz.

Click to make bigger and  clearer

Of the living mayors, I didn't see Tom Fink, and the ADN says he was absent.    Fortunately, the predicted rain was also absent with the sun attending instead. 


From Wikipedia:

Mayors of Greater Anchorage Area Borough (1964–1975)

Name	Term
John Asplund	1964–1972
√John Roderick	1972–1975

Mayors of Municipality of Anchorage (1975–)

Name	Term
George M. Sullivan	1975–1981
√Tony Knowles	1981–1987
Tom Fink	1987–1994
√Rick Mystrom	1994–2000
√George Wuerch	July 1, 2000–July 1, 2003
√Mark Begich	July 1, 2003–January 3, 2009
√Matt Claman	January 3, 2009–July 1, 2009
√Daniel A. Sullivan	July 1, 2009–July 1, 2015
√Ethan Berkowitz	July 1, 2015–

Anchro-Pop Closes Out Diversity Celebration In Anchorage Today

Henna painting at the Somali table.

















The Hmong table had embroidered history lessons, as well as a book on the role of Laos and the Hmong in the Vietnam War. 








The Norwegian table.

The politicians who worked with the community to set the festival up.  Elvi Gray-Jackson (black dress), Assembly member Anchorage, Geran Tarr, state representative from this district, and Ethan Berkowitz, mayor elect.  The pastor was presiding over a vigil in memory of the Charleston church shooting victims.  The recent Supreme Court decisions had also been lauded.

Yu'pik (I think) dancers. 






















And this young man got his face painted with what looks like an old Yu'pik mask design. 












And the title of this post?  Well, it's what I thought of as I listened to Gambian born Anchorage singer, Ousman Jarju (OJ), and the Rebel Clef.   It's Afro-pop with an Anchorage flavor. He transformed a mall parking lot on a gray day into the place to be.



The Rebel Clef  FB page lists the band members.

"Johnnie wright III-Keyboardist /Music director Elivis Crenshaw- Base player Kiah Ward- Drums Ousman Jarju- lead singer Benjamin Blunt- Percussionist Freddie Stokes- saxophone player Angel Wright- Manager ."

 I've posted before about Anchorage having the most diverse census tracts and high school in the nation.  Chad Farrel, the sociologist who's written about this, explains this part of Anchorage, unlike more racially segregated cities, Anchorage has districts with whites as well as a full flavor of ethnic origins.  A follow-up post covers Professor Farrel's presentation at the Alaska Press Club 2014.  I've only highlighted a few that were out this afternoon.  

So, it seems to me, this music is something we can start calling Anchro-pop.  Enjoy the video - I decided to leave the footage as I got it, giving you a sense of being there, and getting it up today. 

Anchorage Mayor Election - Review Of The Numbers And What They May Portend

As the Republican majority caucuses in the state house and senate act [fill in the blank], it's probably useful to look back at the April general election  and the May runoff in Anchorage, and consider what they might mean for future elections.

There are some interesting numbers to ponder.

First,  more people voted in the runoff than in the general election.  I thought that this was a first, though I'm not sure now.  The Municipal election results page which goes back to 1991, shows two runoff elections prior to 2015.  In 2009 there were a lot fewer voters in the runoff.  But 2000 isn't as clear.  The runoff election tally on the Muni website lists two different sets of totals.  One is less than the general election total (62,406) and one is more. 



You'd think the higher one might include absentee ballots, but election totals have lots of strange numbers so I'm not jumping to any conclusions.  Amanda Moser runs the Municipal Elections. She also believed that the prior runoffs had lower turnouts when I talked to her earlier today.  In fact, she pointed out that the Municipal Code only requires there to be as many ballots as in the regular election. 

“28.40.010 - Form.
B2
For each runoff election the municipal clerk shall ensure that the number of ballots prepared equals at least the number of voters who cast ballots in the election requiring the runoff election.”

Fortunately she didn't stick with the minimum and ordered more for the May election. 

The table below shows the results of the general runoff elections.

	Gen Election April 5, 2015		Runoff May 5, 2015
Candidate	# of Votes	Percent	# of Votes	Percent
KERN,	62	0.11%
SPEZIALE,	36	0.06%
AHERN	406	0.71%
BAUER	223	0.39%
BERKOWITZ	21,189	37.03%	42,869	60,75%
COFFEY	8261	14.44%
DARDEN	609	1.06%
DEMBOSKI	13,796	24.11%	27,705	39.25%
HALCRO	12,340	21.57%
HUIT	124	0.22%
JAMISON	48	0.08%
WRITE-IN	128	0.22%
Totals	57,222		70,574	+13,352

Second,  there were 13,352 MORE votes in the runoff than in the general election.

Third,  Berkowitz won by 15,164 votes in the runoff.

Fourth,  if you subtract the additional 13,352 votes in the runoff from Berkowitz' total, he would have had 29,164 votes, only 2,212 more votes than Demboski.  The percentages would have been
Berkowitz 51.5% to Dembosky 48.5%.  A much closer vote. 


So, what does this all mean? 

We have to be careful about reaching conclusions.  I'm speculating here.  But my sense of elections for the last ten years or so, has been that there is very low turnout and the only way Democrats have a chance to win when there are more Republicans is to get more people to vote. People who have just given up on the process or don't think their vote counts.

While we don't know how people who voted in the general election voted in the runoff, we do know that there were  13,352 more of them in the runoff than the general and that Berkowitz won by 15,164 votes.

Conservative v Liberal Showdown?
The runoff pitted a 30 something female candidate against a 50 something male.  She identified herself as the most conservative candidate in the general election and he identified himself as socially liberal and fiscally conservative.  She promised to veto a gay rights addition to the Municipal anti-discrimination ordinance and was strongly opposed to abortion.  He was pro-gay rights and pro-choice.  Gay rights hadn't done well in prior elections in Anchorage.  (But then again times are changing.)

We don't know if it was the ideological stands, the name recognition, past experience, preference for a male candidate, or personality, or campaign styles that made the difference here.  Probably different things for different voters.  But we do know that a liberal trounced a conservative in the biggest city in a generally red state.

My guess is that the extra voters who came out in the runoff made all the difference.  And if the Left can get them out again in the future,  the state could see big changes.

November 2016 Election Implications

My sense is that the House and Senate Republicans, who have been acting like the trolls who lived under the bridge during our current budget crisis special session,  exist in a giant echo chamber.  The leaders are told by the oil and construction and other major industry lobbyists how wise and powerful they are.  They're told they're doing the right thing and to stand tall because the people of Alaska are behind them despite what the biased media report.  And they apparently believe that.  Or the lobbyists are making them offers that the public simply can't match. 

Now, the 2000 Census redistricting resulted in enough gerrymandering that a number of districts are safely Republican (and safely Democratic.)  But in Anchorage, all but sixteen precincts went for Berkowitz, most of those in Demboski territory in Eagle River or Chugiak.  That means most Anchorage precincts voted for the more liberal (and also well known candidate).  I think this election tells us that with strong candidates, Democrats can win in most of Anchorage, just not the Eagle River/Chugiak area.

Despite the gerrymandering, there are 23 Republicans, 16 Democrats, and one non-affiliated who caucuses with the Democrats.  Rural Democrats have traditionally been lured into majority Republican caucus with the promise of pork for their districts if they join and the threat of legislative castration if they don't. Three of the current rural Democrats are part of the current Majority Caucus.

But given this Anchorage election, and the anger that the Republican majorities in the House and Senate are stirring up now, the Democrats could pick enough seats House seats to tie the Republicans.  If this happened the three renegade Dems along with the non-affiliated representative from Ketchikan, would likely join.  It won't be easy, but if the Democrats had three strong candidates in marginally Republican districts, and could get people who normally don't vote to vote, they could do it.  Of course, they would also have keep all the seats they presently have.

People think 2016 is too far away for people to remember, but I doubt next year's legislative session will be much prettier, even if the price of oil shoots back up.  And people need health care and they want good schools for their kids.  And they see the oil companies being protected in the budget fights while Alaskans are being told "it's time to make hard decisions." 

Just some thoughts I had after renewing the Anchorage mayoral election numbers.  

[NOTE:   When I first went to get the numbers from the Muni election site, I had some questions.    I talked to the MOA elections official Amanda Moser, but the numbers she was looking at were different from the ones I had on my screen.  It turned out there were different pages on their website linking to different (but very similar) results.  They've made some changes since this morning to fix that, but after the phone call, I found other inconsistencies in the numbers and emailed that information.  The runoff information I had originally found is now (as I write) gone.  Amanda emailed me the numbers and said she'll get the website fixed in the next couple of days.  As a blogger, I recognize how hard it is to keep updating old pages and how easy it is to miss bad links, so I'm not too concerned.  My dealings with that office over the last few elections have convinced me they're working really hard to keep things as accurate and transparent as possible.  You can get the general election (April) numbers at the Municipal Election Results site.  Here are some others tallies which may not be linked any longer (or may not be linked yet):

• Runoff Results (May 15, 2015)
• April General Election Results (May 15, 2015)
• The most recent runoff summary result (May 22, 2015)
• The most recent runoff statement of votes (by precinct) (May 22, 2015)]

[June 2, 9am Update:  I found the original Municipal page with the 2015 election results (it showed up in my history):  http://www.muni.org/departments/assembly/clerk/elections/pages/electionresults.aspx]

The Role Of Audio In Anchorage's Mayoral Race

First there was the audio of former assembly member Dan Coffey in the primaries.  It was a message left on assembly member Allan Tesche's answer machine.  Tesche's number was, apparently, accidentally dialed, while Coffey was talking to assembly member Starr about how buying votes from assembly members.  It had been highly publicized when Tesche discovered it on his answer machine back in 2008.  And Coffey, in a mea culpa page on this campaign website,  even linked to the transcript.  But when a TV station said they would put the audio online, Coffey's attorney threatened to sue.  Coffey, later said no, he wouldn't sue. 


And for the last week before the election a second very different kind of audio tape has been the focus of attention.  First Jerry Prevo said he'd heard about it from someone and told the nasty to his congregation.

Then Amy Demboski was asked about it on the air.  The conservative talk show host said he thought she would denounce the allegation as ridiculous.  Instead, she said she heard it and she didn't know that he (her opponent, Ethan Berkowitz) didn't mean it. 

But the station said the audio didn't exist.  They recycle them after a certain amount of time. 

The allegation?  That Ethan Berkowitz said he not only supported gay marriage, but also that a man could marry his own son. 

Once you have an allegation like that, and the tape is missing, there's no way you can totally undo the damage.  People who want to believe the worst will believe it. 

And now there's a post on Joe Miller's website with Bernadette Wilson mysteriously finding the tape and playing edited bits of what is a very hypothetical debate.  It's not clear what has been cut out, but Berkowitz is  clearly saying he's not talking about sex, but about a last resort to protect a child in areas like passing on property rights.   Here's Nat Herz' coverage of it:

"The recording showed the conversation between the two hosts started as a legal debate on the same-sex marriage issue in the appellate courts, with Berkowitz taking a libertarian position that consenting adults should be allowed to choose their own relationships. An unidentified caller took the issue further, asking Berkowitz whether a father and son 'should be allowed to marry if they’re both consenting adults.'
'If you're defining marriage as the bundle of rights and privileges that now accrue to people, yes,' Berkowitz said. In the show, he explained he was talking about financial and property rights, not incest, and on Monday, after the recording aired, said he had found himself 'frustrated' within a 'constrained hypothetical conversation.'”

I guess the Koch brothers' money that has been injected into this campaign and that paid for the commercial of their other Alaskan golden child Senator Dan Sullivan supporting Demboski, has bought a marketing team that has carefully built this up to release this tape the day before the election.

I can just say that while I've only had a few conversations with Berkowitz over the years, I know him well enough to know that he does not support incestuous marriages. As an academic, I can understand getting deep into hypotheticals,  But it's probably not something a politician should have let himself get baited into, even in a very hypothetical discussion.  We're talking about the only legislator to stand up on the floor of the house of representatives to protest Veco's interference with the legislative process on the oil tax vote. 

If I recall right, back in the early eighties, Tony Knowles stood up as an assembly member against, discrimination against gays, and was still elected mayor.  We're a long way beyond those days now.  By this time tomorrow night, we'll see whether Demboski is able to demagogue enough voters to win this election.  I'm guessing not.  The allegation may resonate with some, but for most, it will seem like what it is - a lame attempt to smear an opponent.   But if she does lose, she'll still be on the assembly, and now that she's tasted this much attention and power, she's not going to walk away from it. 

Early Voting Anchorage April 23,2015

And given early voting, a lot of folks will have already voted long before the tape was released.  When I voted almost two weeks ago, there was a longer line than when I voted early for the main election in April.

Why Don't Anchorage Mayoral Candidates Fill Out The Basic Muni Job Application Form?

Suppose you were hiring someone to run an organization with a  $400 million budget?  Would you ask applicants' PR firms to write you some copy about their clients to evaluate their merits?  Hell no.

But that's what Anchorage voters get from candidates for mayor (and assembly and school board). The Muni just gets their names and addresses. (See Municipal requirements for filing.) The financial disclosure info is fairly complex, and the information on financial interests and campaign donors is important, but doesn't give us the kind of resume information that job applicants normally submit. [Update 5/3/15 though Anon's links in the comments do give us some employer info.]  All we get is what they post on their websites and send to the League of Women Voters.  We get lots of 'interview' in debates, but little basic background data. 

We're left to the mercy of the media to find out what our candidates' careers have been like.  Neither Berkowitz's nor Demboski's websites tell us very much about their education or work experience. 

What would the voters and the media know, from day one, if the candidates had to fill out the same form most municipal job applicants have to fill out? 

MOA job application requires:

• Criminal Convictions - Have you ever been convicted of any violation of the law, other than minor traffic violations?(A DUI/DWI must be listed.) If yes, provide nature of conviction(s), date(s) and sentence(s). If more space is needed, provide an attachment.
• Education
• High School
• College and Graduate School
• Technical School
• Employment History
• Describe all work history beginning with your current or most recent job. Include volunteer and military experience, including military rank. If necessary, use additional pages or a resume as long as it provides all required information
• Failure to provide complete and accurate information regarding each job held, including providing misleading or false information, may result in disqualification for the position or termination upon discovery.
• For each job
• Job Title
• Name/Title of Supervisor with phone number
• Company Name plus city and state
• Ending pay, hours per week
• Employment dates from __ to __
• Reasons for leaving
• Duties and Responsibilities
• Then there’s some boxes for:
• List the types of computer software and programs you have used.
• List any other special qualifications, skills and/or abilities.
• List relatives employed by the Municipality of Anchorage  (Name, Relationship, Department)

Reporters and voters wouldn't have to dig to get this basic information that's fundamental in each hiring situation and necessary to compare candidates.

 Instead we get cosmetically enhanced mini-bios, like these from the League of Women Voters whose voter pamphlet is linked from the Municipal election site:

Ethan Berkowitz
Coming to Anchorage in 1990, I started my career in the state criminal appeals court and then working as a prosecutor.  My wife Mara and I are raising our two kids here.
We enjoy Anchorage’s great public schools, first-class trails, and vibrant, diverse community.
I served West Anchorage in the Alaska Legislature for ten years, championing fiscal responsibility and energy development.
As a small business owner with a background in telecommunications, public safety and energy development, I will bring unique experience to the mayor’s office to make Anchorage a safe, secure and strong community.

Amy Demboski Amy currently serves on the Anchorage Assembly representing Chugiak, Eagle River and JBER. Amy graduated from Chugiak High School and holds degrees in Justice and History, as well as an MBA with an emphasis in Finance.
Her background in business development and management give her a practical understanding on how to lead corporations, budget, and measure return on investment. She has held multiple public service positions including commissioner on the Judicial Conduct Commission, Chair of the Municipal Budget Advisory Commission, and Community Council President.
Amy will focus on essential services: public safety, infrastructure, and education, coupled with sound fiscal policy.

Berkowitz doesn't even give his educational background, but at least he is profiled on Wikipedia.  Perhaps he thought Harvard and Hastings College of Law might intimidate people.  But if you are weighing educational background, which candidate's brain do you think got the better workout?  Berkowitz with his Harvard and Hastings or Demoski with UAA and an MBA from an online college based in Alabama?  That's not to say you couldn't get a decent online degree, but if you had applicants with those credentials (and Muni voters do), which way would you lean? 

We don't know, for example, what businesses Berkowitz was involved with and what he did for them?  Nor do we know what  "multi-million dollar businesses" Demboski's website says she built and managed.   And I've only seen hints here and there online that they were healthcare related, specifically dental practices. But I don't have enough information to check with the dentists to see to what extent Demboski's work was what made them 'multi-million dollar businesses.'

The lack of such basic information on the candidates, means it's only in the last week of the election that we're learning that Demboski was in the Air Force, but we don't know for how long or the nature of her discharge.  You'd think someone representing JBER on the Assembly would have her Air Force experience listed.  Why leave it off?  If a Muni job applicant left that information off, they could be eliminated from the pool of applicants, or if hired for the job, fired when it was discovered. 

We're essentially hiring the CEO for a $400 million a year enterprise.  Surely an informed public should have more hard information to base their decisions on than we have.

I'm not sure who has to authorize it (can the Clerk's office do this without Assembly approval?), but I think at the very minimum, all applicants for Municipal office  - mayor, assembly and school board members - should have to fill out a municipal job application form with the same obligations as any other job applicant:

APPLICANT AUTHORIZATION AND CERTIFICATION - I AUTHORIZE the Municipality of Anchorage (MOA) to obtain any information relating to the facts provided in this application from schools, employers, criminal justice agencies, individuals, ETC. This information may include, but is not limited to, academic, performance, attendance, achievement, personal history, disciplinary, arrest, and conviction records. 

I DIRECT you to release such information to the MOA regardless of any agreement I may have made with you previously to the contrary.  

I RELEASE any employer, including individuals such as records custodians, from any and all liability for damages of whatever kind or nature which may at any time result on account of compliance, or any attempts to comply with this authorization.

I CERTIFY that the statements contained herein are true to the best of my knowledge. I understand that any incomplete, inaccurate, misleading, false or incorrect information may result in rejection of my application, disqualification from consideration, may render an appointment void and/or can be cause for my dismissal upon discovery.

I AGREE to submit to such tests and physical and/or mental examinations as the MOA may require.

If the Muni can require this of other employees, why not for the top job?  I realize that for regular employees the information collected is confidential and the public as a whole doesn't get the right to verify all the data.  But I know it wouldn't be too complicated to have the same people at the Muni who vet regular employees to check on candidates as well.

Then the public would have real information, not pr puff, with which to weigh the merits of each candidate.  

News Flash: If Same-Sex Marriage Is Legal, No One Will Have To Marry A Same Sex Partner

Everyone will be free to choose to marry the person they love.

I write this the day after the US Supreme Court heard Obergefall v. Hodges.  And after equal rights became an issue once again in an Anchorage mayoral race. 

From today's ADN:

“This is the kind of mayor we need for Anchorage on May 5,” wrote Prevo, using all capital letters and referencing the date of the runoff election. “Not one like Ethan Berkowitz who supports same-sex marriage and ordinances that will take away the rights of those who do not agree with him.”

Not sure what rights, other than to discriminate against people they don't like, Prevo's people will lose.  While LGBT folks lose lots of rights from Prevo's position.

Let's hope Jerry Prevo's message no longer matters to Anchorage voters next week and that he'll have to find some other issue to get his people to hand over their money to support his religious empire in Anchorage.  

Demboski Would Support Tribes, Veto Gay Rights, Darden Wired To God

A fairly new community group - We Are Anchorage - organized, as I understand it, by Ma'o Tosi, held a mayoral forum at UAA's Wendy Williamson Auditorium Thursday night.  It was one of the more interesting political forums I've gone to.  Except for some technical glitches at the beginning with the sound, it went very smoothly.

[We Are Anchorage said they'd have the transcripts up Friday (today) on their website.  As someone who has done transcripts for this blog, I think that Friday is probably optimistic.  But when they're up, I'll check to make sure I'm accurate in what I say below.]

The focus was on violence in Anchorage and how the candidates would address it.

The basic answer from everyone was:  More Police.  Dan Coffey always mentioned that, of course, it's dependent on funding.  Lance Ahern said there was lots of money that could be found in the Muni budget.  Someone else (I think it was Halcro) said that since there was no snow plowing this year, there's plenty of money in that budget.  Demboski bet everyone a piece of pizza that the Muni will have a surplus this year. (If I thought I would lose a bet, I might bet the whole audience a piece of pizza, but I don't know what I'd do with all that pizza if I won.)

There was a set of questions that had been given to all the candidates in advance - Dan Coffey had typed up answers that he left for people in the lobby.  But he only made 40 copies and I guestimate there were about 140 in the audience.  The questions were fairly detailed about strategies to fight violence in general, about violence against Alaska Native women, about the green dot program, the link between staffing levels and crime, etc. Questions were drawn randomly.  Most of the questions were drawn and asked of three or four different candidates.  A few questions were gathered from the audience as they entered the auditorium.  At the end, audience members asked questions.   Some of the candidates were well prepared with specifics and others spoke more in generalities.  Given they had the questions in advance, the latter group just didn't do their homework.

There was a lot of basic agreement on things like the need for more police.  Much of the difference was in style and emphasis.  So I'd like to focus on what stood out for me. 

Notable remarks

Amy Demboski.  Of the candidates that the media seems to peg as the contenders, Demboski was the one who stood out as the most different from the pack.  (It would have been nice to have seen more women on the stage.)

Tribes. The talk about tribes, especially coming from the candidate who bills herself as "the conservative choice" (March 9 video) was a surprise.  Conservatives have been vigorously fighting the concept of tribes in Alaska.   In answer to a question about domestic violence, Alaska Native women, and involving Alaska Natives in solutions, Demboski said she loved this questions, that she was already talking to Tribal Elders, that we should engage tribes because they have access to federal funding and medical care. We can't talk just about individuals, why not talk about tribes?   It wasn't clear.  Is she recognizing the importance of tribes to Alaskan Natives?  Or is it a way to tap into federal funds?  I'm not sure.  It was unexpected.

Liz Medicine Crow, Moderator

Personal Responsibility.  While she talked about dealing with tribes over individuals, she also seemed divided between "people have to take responsibility for themselves" when discussing homeless people and also acknowledging we have a responsibility to help.  I suspect 'individual responsibility' is one of her core values.  It's one that psychologist Jonathan Haidt says is important to conservatives.  (It's in the link - go down to where it says,  "In the Social Science Space interview.")  They don't want to coddle leeches and mooches.  I suspect that Demboski is trying to make a distinction between those who are just being irresponsible and those who are truly needy through no fault of their own.  What she doesn't seem to see is how the system works for some people and doesn't work for others.  There's a combination of genetic predispositions and family and social nurturing that prepare people to cope or to fail.  While I would agree that some people seem to repeatedly make stupid decisions, I tend to believe that if we were omniscient, we would understand that these were not so much irresponsible decisions (which they are on one level) but also decisions programmed by social, political, and economic systems.  It would be interesting to hear Demboski's explanation of how to determine who are just irresponsible and who are deserving of help.

Diversity.   The question was about how to make the Anchorage Police Department look like the diverse population of Anchorage.  Other candidates talked about recruiting candidates from the different ethnic groups of Anchorage.  Demboski said, that diversity, to her, doesn't mean race or religion or economic status.  The police department is already diverse, they're her neighbors (she lives in Chugiak.)  That sounds like someone who says I don't see race, I'm colorblind.  The mixed audience wasn't buying it.  (I'd note, of course, that we're really talking about skin color.  Race used to refer to Italians, Irish, Jews, etc.)

Discrimination Against Gays.  When asked by an audience member about reports that she would veto a gay rights ordinance if mayor, Demboski first pointed out that her campaign didn't put out that ad.  But she did, then, say she would veto such an ordinance.  She wasn't discriminating against gays, she suggested, but rather preventing religious discrimination.  People only had a minute (and later only 30 seconds to answer.)  My interpretation of that is that she's identifying with people whose religions say that homosexuality is sinful and who would not want, as a merchant, to have to do things that advanced the idea that homosexuality was okay.  I understand a person who embraces the bible literally including those sections fundamentalists point to as proof that homosexuality is a sin, feeling conflicted when they are asked to photograph or cater a gay wedding.  I understand their claims that they feel it would endorse something they disagree with.  And I certainly wouldn't want someone who thought I was an abomination to take the pictures or make the food for my wedding.  But if you live in a small community where there is only one photography store or one good caterer or bakery, being denied service because of how you were born (and I know others will say it's a choice) is against the basic principles of equal rights that we celebrate with "All men are created equal."  (And, of course, there is irony in that time has made the word 'men' there anachronistic.)  And when it comes to landlords or employers having the right to discriminate against gays - even when their presence is not about advancing homosexuality - is even worse.
Dustin Darden added the concern about pastors having their freedom of speech abridged if they spoke out against gays.  I don't know of any gay rights ordinance that says people in non-public settings can't offer the opinion that homosexuality is wrong. 
I can understand that reasoning, but I can't agree with it.  Religion has been used to justify drowning so called witches, and slavery as well.  I had a number of issues with Demboski as a potential mayor, and this issue is reason enough for me to consider Demboski unacceptable as a mayor.
What wasn't addressed in this discussion was the relationship between religious condemnation of gays and the disproportionate amount of violence gays are subjected to and how violence against

Don Megga and Timer

gays would be dealt with. 

Phil Stoddard.  Phil's solution to everything was the mantra: "Education is the key and jobs are the answer."  He promised to dramatically increase manufacturing in Anchorage by making this lowest priced electrical grid in the US.  Every time he had a question, he got his mantra into the answer. 


Dustin Darden paused before each answer, eyes looking up as though he were waiting to channel God, and he did say several times that God was the answer.  His most passionate moment was when he vowed to shut down Planned Parenthood.  He didn't actually name them, but he did talk about ending abortion and identified their corner on Lake Otis Parkway.

At the end of the randomly selected question, each candidate was asked what their most important tool for ending violence was.

• Darden:  Pray
• Stoddard:  Jobs
• Berkowitz:  Fundamentals and basics - prevention, policing, prosecution - alone won't eliminate violence.  We all have to do it together - We Are Anchorage.
• Huit:   Spiritual solutions - "though not to where Dustin [Darden] is" - we have leadership problems
• Ahern:  Use new technologies - smart phones - 911 doesn't take advantage of people's ability to text and send photos of the person bothering them.
• Coffey:  Agrees with Ethan on fundamentals, but then need someone who can do it effectively and then he suggested he could.
• Bauer:  Incorporate what everyone else said plus the inability of people to deal with others in a civil manner - thus education
• Halcro:  Become Anchorage again, come together as a community
• Demboski:  Wish I had a simple answer.  Communication - start with people talking to each other.

I walked away thinking there were four candidates who spoke knowledgeably about the issues and with recognition that there were other valid points of view besides their own - Dan Coffey, Ethan Berkowitz, Andrew Halcro, and Lance Ahern.  Ahern is the least well known of the four and his knowledge of Anchorage comes from a shorter span of experience.  He's head of IT at the Municipality now and has law enforcement experience.  In his area he seems well informed and is well spoken.  (I'm sure there are people at the Muni who dispute this and I don't know for sure.  He seemed genuinely open and I'm inclined to believe him, but always "trust, but verify."

One unexpected issue raised by the audience was the future of Uber in Anchorage.  Halcro was quick to say that he would be pushing for innovative firms like Uber much more than the man - Dan Coffey - who had been the attorney for the taxi industry.  Coffey responded that he was open to Uber, but was concerned with guaranteeing public safety.  Halcro also countered Demboski's promise to veto a gay rights ordinance by touting his own bringing the head of the national gay Chamber of Commerce to speak to the Anchorage Chamber of Commerce, the first 'regular' chamber to invite the head of the gay Chamber of Commerce to speak to them.  Berkowitz gave several spirited responses - in one case, after Paul Bauer talked about reawakening a moribund task force to study homelessness, Berkowitz held up a study on policing in Anchorage and said, there have been enough studies, it's time to implement them.  If I were to go by audience applause, Berkowitz probably was the winner, though Halcro got his share of applause too.  (There actually wasn't that much applause, though Darden's brother applauded loudly each time Dustin spoke.)

There was a positive vibe in the room.  Candidates treated each other, for the most part, with respect and the audience listened carefully.  The whole event was well organized and I got a good sense of the candidates. The APOC lists several other mayoral candidates who weren't there:

• Samuel Joseph Speziale III
• Yeilyadi Olson
• Jacob Kern
• Christopher Steven Jamison
• Jonathan Harrison  (is listed for both mayor and school board)

Interview With Ethan Berkowitz, Mayoral Candidate

I'd been to a meet and greets for,  and did videos of, mayoral candidates Dan Coffey and Andrew Halcro, so I thought I should track down Ethan Berkowitz too.  So I went to the opening of his campaign headquarters last week.

His key issues were "fundamentals" like a safe community, housing, keeping the fiscal house in order, infrastructure for the 21st century, and education.   Housing and fiscal issues were also important to the other two candidates.  But Berkowitz said 21st century a couple of times and as he talked it did seem to me he was looking forward, perhaps, more than Coffey and Halcro - he talked about better broadband, and LED street lighting,  and he was not keen on building a road through the university.

[Disclosure: of these three candidates, I know Berkowitz better and feel most comfortable with him.  And I made a contribution to his campaign.  But you can view the videos and judge for yourself.]

I also need to mention that while I usually have the camera in close, this is a little extreme.  But he didn't pull back and you won't get any closer to him. 




[Note:  it will say in the video March 6, but it was really March 5]




Here's a reasonably close transcript of the video.

Steve:  Why do you want to be mayor?
Berkowitz:  Because it’s a great time to be mayor.  Washington DC is totally dysfunctional, Juneau is acting like it’s broke, so if anything is going to happen in this community, it’s going to happen at the mayoral level.  So I think there are terrific opportunities in front of us and I just didn’t see anyone coming to the fore who had that vision of where Anchorage should go.  So, now is the time.

Steve:  What are your top priorities?

Berkowitz:  We have to deal with the fundamentals, make sure Anchorage is a safe community, a secure community, a strong community, and that is public safety, making sure our fiscal house is in order, and houses are available for people to move into, and when you talk about a strong community you need the right kind infrastructure for the 21st century, and you also have to make sure our education system is, sorry, I’ve got kids running by, speaking of the educational system, robust enough so they’re able to compete and succeed in the 21st century
 
OK, that’s a lot of general kinds of things, what are the specifics, like, what about housing?

So, with housing, I don’t need to lead or reinvent the wheel.  There are studies which talk about how to provide affordable housing for folks who want to move into it.  There are all kinds of studies about how we address the homeless issue.  It’s time to implement these plans instead   of studying.  Anyone who’s hung out down in Fairview and seen the tent city that’s sprung up there, knows we’ve got a major problem that’s gotten worse in the last six years.  You’ve got to actually lead if you want things to change.  So that’s what’s going to happen.  You have to do  more Housing First models, you have to make sure you have denser housing in the core areas where people want to live.  So that’s just a question of making those things happen.

When it comes time to provide safer streets, lets just hire more cops.  This insane notion that you can do more with less, is just that - insane.  If you want more cops, we gotta find a way of bringing them on and there’s ways we can do that.

We can pay for them by taxing marijuana, which is now a legal substance.  We can do it by finding savings in our municipal budget, One saving, for example, is we have 20,000 lightbulbs in Anchorage, we put LED lights on 5000 of them.  That saved $2 million a year.  Let’s go save another $6 million and put LEDs on the other 15,000. 

I can go up and down the city budget, there are opportunities to find efficiencies, to find savings, but we’ve gotta to know where we want to go. 

Steve:  All right.  One of the questions I’ve asked the other candidates I’ve talked is:  there’s $20 million sitting there to build a road through the university.  All the community councils in the area have voted overwhelming against the road.  Where do you stand on this?  Can you use that $20 million for something else?

Berkowitz:  I’ve got to see if there’s a tail on that $20 million, if it has to be there, but I’m not in favor of that road.  And my feeling about any of these infrastructure projects is before you get to the merits of whether you like the road or don’t like the road, whether you like the Knik bridge or you don’t like the Knik bridge, how are you going to pay for it?  You wouldn’t go to the bank and say, “Hey, I’ve got enough for the foundation of the house I want to build, I don’t know how I’m going to get the rest constructed or how I’m going to pay for it once I move into it, but give me a load for the rest.  That goes no where for an individual.  The Municipality has to be held to the same standard. Don’t start a project unless you know how it’s going to be finished.  Don’t start a project if you don’t know where the operations and maintenance money are coming from. 

Steve:  All right, any other issues?

Berkowitz:  There’s a LOT of other issues.

Steve:  Well, give me two. 

Berkowitz:  If we want to compete in the 21st century, we need more robust broadband, so I think that’s a major factor  Right now we have 6 mb per second coming down the pike.  We ought to have 100 like they have in Korea . . .  That’s one example.  We need to have the ambition to be much more energy efficient.  We ought to produce more energy locally, geothermal, the wind, tidal, we need to be on the cutting edge of that.  We need to integrate our school with our university system more than we have.  We have to make sure the cultural vibrancy of Anchorage is as robust as it can be - the food scene, the culture scene.  There’s a lot going on here.  We just have to do more of it and make it more accessible to more people.

Steve:  How are you going to be different from the other major candidates.

Berkowitz:  I bring a different vision, and I don’t know where they are on these things.  The vision I have is of an active mayor    I also believe on relying on smart people, intelligent people, informed people, who live here and see what they want, following the plans they crafted  We just need to do things.  I’m so sick and tired of studies.  It’s time we just start doing things and we’ll be fine when we do that.

Pennsylvania Computer Nerd Claims Berkowitz Lost Because of 2008 Election Fraud

With the 2014 election climaxing tomorrow, it seems appropriate to look at John Foelster's claims about the 2008 election in Alaska.  Foelster left comments on some Alaska blogs, including this one, last week, with a link to his website  [UPDATE Nov 23, 2016: his website now has restricted entry]  where he spells out the data that underlies his assertions. He writes

The fraudulent vote count would have resulted in Don Young being wrongly seated in a House seat actually won by his Democratic opponent Ethan Berkowitz, and would certainly have changed the outcome of the District 7 Lower House Race so that Democrat Karl Kassel would have beaten Republican Mike Kelly. [Note Kassel lost by four votes.] Democrats Andrea Doll of the 4^th lower House District and Val Baffone of the 28^th Lower House District were also likely the actual winners of the races they officially lost.

At what point do we take assertions seriously?  After all, I had had emails about the National Guard scandal as far back as 2010 and I'd seen Blaylock's long list of allegations on line.  But I didn't write about it for lack of further information and lots of other things to do.

My experience with the 2012 Municipality of Anchorage election (see list of posts at bottom of this post) showed me how vulnerable the voting machines are.  While I tend to think the problems in that election were more related to incompetence and not tampering with the voting machine software, the situation exposed the many vulnerabilities of the procedures and the machines.

I've read Foelster's claims.  They represent a lot of painstaking work, not only in gathering and interpreting the data, but also in how to present it.  He has a series of video tapes that walk you step by step through his hypothesis and the evidence backing it up.  While the conclusion is sensational, his presentation is not.  It's painstakingly detailed, self aware and self effacing, and outlines exactly how he went about getting to his claims.

I've sent the information to a couple of good data people and got a long response from one who knows a lot about elections and the computers. While this person didn't read it all, and raised some questions here and there, he allowed it was a possibility and was concerned about the greater environment of election fraud vulnerability of the nation as a whole.  I've also had some email exchange with Foelster to follow up with questions I had.

Problems with Reporting Computer Crime

Manipulating computer data is the kind of crime that doesn't emotionally effect people like murder, armed robbery, kidnap, and rape.  Television footage of computer code just isn't compelling. Computer crime is all hidden in 1's and 0's inside the computer, in computer code that most people don't understand.  It's also something we don't want to believe is happening because it violates our sacred belief in American democracy.  There are lots of websites that give details on how the voting machines can be hacked.  Bradblog covers all sorts of voting issues including problems with voting machines.  Here are some others.

• Votescam -  large overview of electronic voting issues
• What Really Happened  
• There's a great video - Hacking Democracy - but when I tried to look at the video just now on their site it said it "The uploader has not made this video available in your country."The website is still worth visiting. 
• Even conservatives are now using voting machine fraud arguments.
• How Many Ways Are There To Steal An Election? And Why Doesn't Anyone Care?
  This is a post I did in 2012 when I was covering the Anchorage Municipal election problems. 

I list all these sites just to remind people that there are legitimate and serious issues with voting machines that should be understood by everyone.  Citizens United is one issue, but the vulnerability of the voting machines may be an even bigger one.

So, back to Foelster's allegations.  Here, from his website, is the outline of his evidence:
[UPDATE Nov 23, 2016: his website now has restricted entry]

"The lines of evidence are as follows:

1. The polls in 2008 indicated that the Democrats in Alaska would do much better than they did in the reported results.
2. In 2012, there was a large swing to President Obama, one that was too large to have been caused by Governor Palin no longer being on the Republican ticket.
3. The number of Democrats in the electorate in 2012 was significantly lower than the number in 2008.
4. The report on electorate composition this information can be found in appears to have been reformatted in an attempt to draw attention away from it.
5. The 2008 results are unique in recent Alaska history for having very Democratic Absentee results and very Republican in precinct results.
6. A variation on a known technique for compromising AV-OS machines would have produced the effects described above, and this hack could have been introduced by one person working in Juneau.
7. The size of the above anomaly varies from district to district based on the number of registered Democrats in precincts with AV-OS voting machines.
8. The State Review Board’s Hand Count Audit of the paper ballots could also have been compromised by this same single person."

Each item links to further information.  

As I read this, I see him taking two main approaches:

1. Technical:  The data show anomalies that indicate votes in 2008 were tampered with.
1. In 2012 there was a significant boost in votes in Alaska for Obama than in 2008.  This runs counter to every other state where the support for Obama went down in 2012. This happened because in 2008, a large number of Democratic votes in Alaska were switched over to Republicans. 
2. How the voting machines work and how to hack them to get the results he thinks happened
2. Human:  The narrative of who might have been involved, how, and why

For me, the human narrative part is weak.  But that doesn't really matter.  He doesn't have to prove who did this.  What he has to demonstrate is the problem with the data and technically how votes could have been manipulated.   And that part I think he's done - at least to the point that others with the appropriate expertise should follow up and determine if his allegations have merit.  It may lead to a dead end, but even then it would help expose the vulnerabilities of the process and technology further.

The technical part isn't necessarily flawless.  Perhaps other explanations would account for what he found.  For example, if enough Democrats switched parties to vote in the Republican primary race between Murkowski and Miller, would that accounts for the dip in Democrats that 2008?  I don't know. 


Who Is John Foelster?

Foelster identifies himself as a 'nerd' who lives in Pennsylvania and has never been to Alaska.  He also has Aspbergers. And experience in computers and voting technology. I don't see that he has any particular interest in Alaska politics other than he saw this inconsistency and then obsessively pursued it. My sense of Foelster is that this anomaly caught his attention and he ran with it.    I don't believe he works for any party or has any particular personal interest in Alaska.  It's just a puzzle that came his way and he got deeply into it.  I understand that.  I did something similar with the redistricting board.

Computer crimes are hard to prove - first that they happened and second who did them - without lots of access, patience, and savvy.  

Even if all his allegations proved to be correct, I don't see Ethan Berkowitz being retroactively sworn in to the House of Representatives.  But if this really did happen, we ought to know about it and take steps to do something to protect us better in future elections.  And if it didn't happen here the way Foelster says, there are other possibilities where it might have happened.

Can it happen in tomorrow's election?  Yes, but there were patches made, according to Foelster, in 2011 that would preclude the particular hack he describes as for 2008.


What Next?

I see two things that should be done here:

1. We need a technical election committee that reviews every election in Alaska.  It looks at the hardware, the software, and makes a statistical analysis of voting results to find any suspicious anomalies.
2. That committee could start by reviewing Foelster's work.

I would note that the Municipality had such a committee - though its charge was not quite this thorough - but it was abandoned before the 2012 election.

I would also note that in that election there were lots of sloppy practices - plastic seals on ballot bags that easily broke off, voting machines and ballots being taken home by election workers overnight - that opened up many opportunities for fraud.  Barb Jones, the new municipal clerk (after the 2012 election) and the election official Amanda Moser, have eliminated some of these practices and have been accessible to me as a blogger to exactly how each step of the process works.  But we're still too much in the small town, we trust each other, level that our procedures originally came from.  We're still leaving a lot of windows open and doors unlocked.

2012 Municipality Election Posts To Show Where My Concerns Come From

I have put together a list of posts I did on the 2012 Municipal election.  (The posts were not well labeled and I had to poke around to find them.)  I offer this list to help readers understand my experience with elections and why I'm willing to give John Foelster some attention here. 

The Myth of the Big Election Turnout 

Guadalupe Marroquin, Former Anchorage Election Chief Talks About The Election... (10 minute video on how to tamper with the machines and how they work from the previous election chief)

What Do The Election Percentages and Numbers Tell? Maybe Nothing

Polling Gap - Dittman Confirms It's the Biggest 

Brad Friedman Rips Apart Election Commissioner's Testimony 

Jacqueline Duke, Elections Chief, Fired by Assembly

What's Happening With The Anchorage Election? 

Assembly Exchanges Barbs: Barbara Jones To Replace Barb Gruenstein.

Citizen Group on Election Meeting Now with Assembly Attorney

Hensley Report on Election Now Available - Form Over Substance 

141 "Potentially Uncounted Ballots" Found July 11 (From April Election)
(August)

How Many Ways Are There To Steal An Election? And Why Doesn't Anyone Care?
(This is marginally about Anchorage - trying to link us to bigger national issues)