[Scroll down to see theWEEKLY STATE UPDATES/CHARTS (latest date on top). Beginning part is a bit of history of my tracking COVID.]
I've had a chart showing COVID data from the main Alaska COVID dashboards since before there were even dashboards. I started when they were simply posting daily updates and it was difficult if not impossible to see the previous days' totals. You couldn't tell if things were getting better or not. Over time the data presentation got better with more previous data available too. But the numbers they said for yesterday or last week weren't always the same as what they originally said.
COVID reporting slowed to three times a week, then once a week, then once a month.
In October the COVID dashboards were 'archived.' In their place they now offer charts showing total new cases of Respiratory Viruses: RSV, Flu, and COVID.
My first response was to put them up on the old page (as Blogspot calls tabs), but it makes more sense to start a new one for this. I even considered letting folks check for themselves, but I've discovered that the numbers listed in each column (when you put the cursor over it) are not the same numbers in that week's column the previous week. I assume it's because they get late submissions etc. but I'll try to make it easy to see the weekly differences and changes in the data.
Here's the link to the last COVID tab (May 2021-October 2023)
Here's the link to the 2nd COVID tab (October 2020 - April 2021)
Here's the link to the 1st COVID tab (June 2020 - September 2020) The chart on this one goes back to when I started: March 11, 2020, when the numbers were first reported.
I will probably start a new chart to make it easier to track the numbers. Easier, that is, than comparing weekly graphs.
Link to Alaska Dept of Health Respiratory Virus Snapshot. That's where these charts below came from.
WEEKLY STATE UPDATES/CHARTS (when available)
April 25, 2024 - COVID positive tests down to 21 for the week. This number hasn't been this low since the early days of the pandemic in 2020 (when the numbers were daily numbers, not weekly.) A big drop from the previous week's 48, which itself was one of the lowest numbers since the beginning.
I've been tracking not only the current week's numbers, but also the previous week's original reported number and the updated number on the following week's chart. There have always been fairly large adjustments. This week the only difference is one extra Flu case. RSV and COVID number were unchanged. Usually all three diseases have adjustments, some of them significant. I'm not sure why this trend has changed.
But, again, remember these are "Lab-confirmed cases." and don't reflect home testing of COVID or sick people who were not tested for flu or RSV.
| 4/13/24 as of 4/11/24 | 413/24 as of 4/18/24 | 4/20/24 as of 4/18/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSV | 17 | 17 | 16 |
| Flu | 296 | 297 | 197 |
| COVID | 48 | 48 | 21 |
These are great numbers - especially for COVID.
Is this because of vaccination? From what I can tell, more older people have gotten flu shots than RSV and updated COVID shots.
"studies show that these vaccines are effective at protecting older adults from severe disease outcomes, including hospitalization and death." (from Scientific American April 19, 2024)
But that's protection of older adults against severe outcomes. And the flu numbers are much higher than RSV and COVID, even though (according to the same Scientific American article) more people have gotten flu vaccines than the RSV or updated COVID shots.
The RSV vaccinations were new last year and ctual tests of the effectiveness of the RSV vaccination (beyond the original clinical testing) face difficulty. From an April 11, 2024 JAMA article:
"Observational studies of real-world immunization effectiveness typically compare the frequency of the illness outcome among persons who were immunized vs those who were not (cohort design) or the frequency of immunization among persons with the illness outcome vs those without the outcome (case-control or test-negative design). In both approaches, uptake of the immunization in the population must be sufficiently high to allow for an effectiveness evaluation. Immunization and outcome status also must be accurately identified. In addition, differences in the characteristics of immunized and unimmunized persons that might be associated with risk of the illness outcome must be addressed in analyses to optimize validity. "
April 18, 2024 - Flu is up, RSV and COVID are down. All three diseases updated number from last week were up today from when they were first posted last week. Even so, RSV and COVID are down from the original numbers and those posted this week. Flu is is up by 50 cases using last week's posted numbers. Only by 11 cases using the updated numbers that were posted today.
Let's assume all three numbers posted today will be up when they are updated next week.
| 4/06/24 as of 4/11/24 | 4/06/24 as of 4/18/24 | 4/13/24 as of 4/18/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSV | 22 | 26 | 17 |
| Flu | 246 | 285 | 296 |
| COVID | 60 | 63 | 48 |
April 11, 2024 - Numbers continue to drop. All three (RSV, Flu, COVID) dropped whether you compare them to March 30 numbers posted last week or updated today. Also remember that most COVID cases are probably home tested and not reported unless they get fairly bad.
| 3/30/24 as of 4/04/24 | 3/30/24 as of 4/11/24 | 4/06/24 as of 4/11/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSV | 37 | 38 | 22 |
| Flu | 286 | 322 | 246 |
| COVID | 68 | 73 | 60 |
April 4, 2024 - Numbers keep dropping. Positive COVID tests fell below 100 per week for the first time since early in the pandemic - June 2020. That's good news. RSV is up this week from 26 last week (both in the original and the update) to 37 this week.
Flu down from last weeks revised number of 366 (it had been 330) to 286.
COVID down almost 50% from revised number of 123 (had been 119) to 68. That's the lowest number since they changed to reporting the three Respiratory Viruses last September. But I've also checked the older files. In June 2020 we were starting to get daily positive tests over 10 regularly. Weekly numbers above 100 started about the second week of June 2020.
That's a big deal. Even if most people are testing using home kits.
| 3/23/24 as of 4/04/24 | 3/23/24 as of 4/04/24 | 3/30/24 as of 4/04/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSV | 26 | 26 | 37 |
| Flu | 330 | 366 | 286 |
| COVID | 119 | 123 | 68 |
March 27, 2024 - The numbers are up now.
Remember as you look at the State's graph with the green/red/blue bars, that the most recent column (on the far right) is the first draft of the numbers. All the others are the updated numbers. Next week, the far right number (March 23 this week), will be higher when it is the second on the right. The tables I've been adding each week show the change in 'last week's' numbers and preserve 'this week's' first draft numbers.
All that said all the numbers this week are down from last week's original numbers and updated numbers. And last week's updated numbers, though higher than they originally were, are still down from the previous week.
| 3/16/24 as of 3/22/24 | 3/16/24 as of 3/27/24 | 3/23/24 as of 3/27/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSV | 37 | 39 | 26 |
| Flu | 362 | 378 | 330 |
| COVID | 138 | 144 | 119 |
March 25, 2024 - I was wondering why I got the March 16 update (below) six days late. Today I looked for the - presumably - March 23 update. Nothing new. It used to be that the COVID updates were posted on the date on the chart.
March 22, 2024 - Here are the numbers as of March 16.
If you look at the state's chart - see below - the positive tests have dropped for all three diseases. But did they really? Actually, yes. Even comparing these initial set of numbers for March 16 with the original set of numbers for March 9, there's a drop in all three diseases. But will there be a drop when we get the updated numbers for March 16? We'll have to wait and see. But this looks good.
| 3/09/24 as of 3/12/24 | 3/09/24 as of 3/22/24 | 3/16/24 as of 3/22/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSV | 48 | 43 | 37 |
| Flu | 378 | 396 | 362 |
| COVID | 179 | 179 | 138 |
March 14, 2024
If this looks pretty quick after the previous post, it's because that one was very late.
As you can see from the table, the March 2 numbers went up from the originally reported:
- RSV up from 41 to 53. So, based on the original numbers, the RSV went up 7 to 48. But based on the updated numbers, down 5. But that drop will disappear (most likely) when the March 9 numbers are updated.
- Flu up from 278 to 295 and then up this week to 378. Again the 378 will probably higher when it's update next week.
- COVID doesn't make sense to me - the adjusted numbers dropped from 317 to 182 and then this week dropped again to 179. Perhaps they discovered that one or two reports were counted twice and so it dropped when they took the double count out. But that's just a wild guess
| 3/02/24 as of 3/12/24 | 3/02/24 as of 3/12/24 | 3/09/24 as of 3/12/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSV | 41 | 53 | 48 |
| Flu | 278 | 295 | 378 |
| COVID | 317 | 182 | 179 |
March 12, 2024
We were traveling last week and when I looked for the new numbers, they were on March 2, 2024 and I thought I'd already done that one. But I hadn't, so I'm getting it up late. But fortunately the new one isn't up yet so I can capture the original data posted March 2.
The table shows the numbers as originally reported for 2/24/2024 (37) and then the corrected numbers as of 3/02/2023 (41). As of the corrected numbers, positive tests are up seven.
RSV is was originally 37 on 2/24, corrected to 41, and this week's number is up seven to 48.
Flu was 266, corrected to 278, and this March 2 is the same - 278.
COVID was 271, corrected to 317. March 2 it is down considerably to 179. But I'm guessing most COVID tests are home tests, so this number is very probably undercounted.
| 2/24/24 as of 2/24/23 | 2/24/24 as of 3/02/24 | 3/12/24 as of 3/02/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSV | 37 | 41 | 48 |
| Flu | 266 | 278 | 278 |
| COVID | 271 | 317 | 179 |
February 29, 2024
Positive tests for all three diseases, based on the numbers posted today, are down, a lot, for RSV and COVID, but up for Flu.
[Note: The chart below has two columns for the number for the week of February 17. I do this because the numbers first posted change when that week's numbers are updated in the next week's graph. So, when first posted, the February 17 RSV positive cases was 55. This week, the chart shows the February 17 RSV cases as 57. I understand that after they post each week, they get new numbers for that week and so they make corrections. There are a couple of problems:
- They don't clearly tell us they do this. I say clearly just in case they do somewhere that I haven't seen.
- When you look at each week's chart, the average citizen, doesn't know that last week's numbers have been updated from what it said last week, so
- When they look to see if cases have gone up or down,
- They don't realize the original numbers for last week's numbers were lower and
- That this week's numbers will be higher next week which could change whether cases went up or down.
| 2/17/24 as of 2/25/23 |
2/17/24 as of 2/29/24 |
2/24/24 as of 2/29/24 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| RSV | 55 | 57 | 37 |
| Flu | 213 | 258 | 266 |
| COVID | 271 | 403 | 271 |
Here's a link to the chart below. It's interactive. Put the cursor on a column and it will give you the number of cases for each disease. But remember, it changes weekly.
February 25, 2024
I'm a little behind on this week's numbers. They're all down, but let's look at the details, remembering the numbers they posted this week will most likely be updated next week.
| 2/10/24 as of 2/16/24 | 2/10/24 as of 2/25/24 | Feb 17, 2024 posted @ 2/20/24* | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSV | 74 | 73 | 55 | |
| Flu | 243 | 254 | 215 | |
| COVID | 542 | 590 | 380 |
*I'm not sure what date they actually posted these because I wasn't checking daily last week. I saw them first yesterday(2/24/24)
The Alaska COVID numbers are down significantly this week (though watch for the 2/17/2024 total to be higher in next week's chart). But these are only the cases reported to the State. And 380 people breathing on unmasked people in their orbit can cause lots of more infections.
From the John Snow Project
Writing in Science, Ziyad Al-Aly and Eric Topol say:
“SARS-CoV-2 infection increases the risk of a wide array of chronic diseases and will contribute to a rise in the burden of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, neurologic impairment, and autoimmune conditions. This will increase demand on health systems and raise health care costs, and their impact may take many years to fully manifest. Long Covid affects the development and educational attainment of children and reduces labor participation and economic productivity in working-age adults. Both the direct effect of increased risk of death in people with Long Covid and the indirect effect on mortality through increased burden of chronic diseases caused by SARS-CoV-2 (e.g., cardiovascular, metabolic, and neurologic diseases) may contribute to further decline in life expectancy, potentially erasing decades of progress. Addressing these challenges will require continued focus on strengthening prevention efforts and urgently finding treatments for Long Covid.”
February 16, 2024
February 10 numbers: RSV based on last week's posted numbers, it's up one case. But last week's numbers were updated today from 73 to 78, so by those numbers it's down four. But will next week's number show it was really up this week?
Flu was up by both sets of Feb. 3 numbers - posted last week (182) and revised this week (212) to a new total of 243. That number posted today will probably be higher next week.
COVID was down from both Feb 3 numbers (595 posted last week and 641 posted this week) to 542.
Remember masks are good for all three: RSV, Flu, and COVID.
I know this gets confusing. The chart up today shows each week since August 5, 2023. But each new charts has different numbers for the previous week than it did when it was first published. That's not nefarious, I don't think. It's just that more numbers come in after they are posted. BUT, looking at the chart each week, you would never know that. And these adjustments show up each week. If there is someplace where all these adjustments are shown, I haven't found it. (And I haven't spent a lot of time looking for it.)
But scrolling through here, you can see those weekly adjustments. It just takes a bit of doing. But if anyone wants to figure out how much of an adjustment there is each week, the raw numbers are here.
| 2/3/24 as of 2/10/24 | 2/3/24 as of 2/16/24 | Feb 10, 2024 posted 2/16/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSV | 73 | 78 | 74 |
| Flu | 182 | 212 | 243 |
| COVID | 595 | 641 | 542 |
February 7, 2024 -
New numbers up today for February 3, 2024 show: RSV up 2 cases; Flu down 79 cases; COVID down 92 cases.
But also check how the original cases for Jan 27 reported on Jan 31 were significantly lower than what was reported this week (Feb 7, 2024). Each current week's number increases by the second week it shows up on the graph.
To be really clear, these are increases from one week to the next. Rather they are increases for the SAME WEEK as reported for the first time and then updated by the next report.
RSV went from 59 to 71 (up 25%)
Flu as reported went up from 245 to 261 (up 16%)
COVID reported went up from 622 to 687 (9.5%)
So, take this week's numbers with a grain of salt. Next week they are likely to be somewhere between 10 and 25% higher than they are now.
| 1/27/24 as of 1/31/24 | 1/27/24 as of 2/07/24 | Feb 3, 2024 posted 2/07/24 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSV | 59 | 71 | 73 | |
| Flu | 245 | 261 | 183 | |
| COVID | 622 | 687 | 595 |
January 31, 2024 - The January 27, 2024 numbers are up. RSV and COVID down slightly and Flu up. But they are down from the updated numbers of Jan 20 (which are different from what was posted for that date last week) and next week the corrected numbers for Jan 27 could well be up.
Generally these graphs show an uptick. COVID has been above 600 for the last four weeks. Look at the curves separately for each color. Early November flu was at its highest, RSV and COVID were low.
| 1/20/24 as of 1/24/24 | 1/20/24 as of 1/31/2 | Jan 27, 2024 posted 1/31/24 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSV | 71 | 74 | 59 | |
| Flu | 169 | 199 | 245 | |
| COVID | 565 | 652 | 622 |
About the newest variant JN.1:
"The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared it a “variant of interest.” There is no evidence that JN.1 causes more severe disease, the CDC says, but its rapid spread suggests it is either more transmissible or better at evading the immune system than other circulating variants."
As long as we stop taking precautions - on the belief that we're vaccinated and aren't likely to die - we allow COVID to find hosts in which it can mutate into more serious strains.
January 23, 2024 - The January 20 numbers are up today. RSV and COVID are down and Flu is up. Below I have two sets of numbers for 1/13/24 - what was posted last time (1/18) and the revised numbers posted this week. Remember, COVID numbers are low because people don't report their home test results.
| 1/13.24 as of 1/18/24 | 1/13.24 as of 1/24/24 | Jan 20, 2024 posted 1/24/24 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSV | 70 | 85 | 71 | |
| Flu | 102 | 129 | 169 | |
| COVID | 599 | 662 | 565 | |
January 18, 2024 - Two weeks again. Or maybe I'm getting confused. I think there was one with January 6, but I guess I thought I'd done that one. In any case, here are the new numbers today.
Flu's gone up slightly, but RSV and COVID have gone down.
| 12/30 as of 1/5/24 | 12/30 as of 1/18/24 | Jan 6 as of 1/18/24 | Jan 13 posted 1/18/23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSV | 92 | 98 | 82 | 70 |
| Flu | 67 | 100 | 100 | 102 |
| COVID | 357 | 460 | 705 | 599 |
January 5, 2024 - Today we got two weeks at once.
Basically RSV and flu have gone down each week and COVID has gone up each week. This reflects increases in COVID in much of the US. There's also an increase in Long COVID deaths nationally. Not sure it's an increase, or just growing awareness as officials are monitoring Long COVID victims. Compared to the overall number of deaths (over 1 million) from COVID, they're only reporting 5000 from Long COVID. Alaska isn't reporting deaths on their Respiratory Disease page. It would also be interesting to know how many likely Trump and Biden voters died or got very sick. Telling your supporters deadly lies doesn't seem like a winning tactic.
| 12/16 as of 12/16/23 |
12/16 as of 1/5/24 |
Dec.23 posted 1/5/23 |
Dec 30 posted 1/5/23 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSV | 62 | 106 | 99 | 93 |
| Flu | 70 | 96 | 91 | 67 |
| COVID | 235 | 258 | 337 | 357 |
December 28 (and 29), 2023 - The new numbers aren't up yet. It's the week between Christmas and New Year, so I get it. But we have a governor who is doing his best to cut the budgets of most agencies except the ones that work on resource development, and the part of the law department that files amicus briefs for far right legal challenges. Meanwhile, respiratory diseases reports are going up in the rest of the country. Jan 3&4, 2024 still not updated yet. Called and left a message asking what was up.
December 21, 2023 - Big jump for COVID. Flu down sharply. RSV up a bit. New numbers are up today for Dec. 16. Again, last week's numbers have been updated - up a lot - and Dec. 16 numbers for RSV and COVID are up, while flu is down.
RSV - Dec 9 reported last week - 42; Dec 9 reported this week - 60; Dec 16 reported - 62
Flu - Dec 9 reported last week - 104; Dec 9 reported this week - 135; Dec 16 reported - 70
COVID - Dec 9 reported last week - 164; Dec 9 reported this week - 188; Dec. 16 reported - 235
 |
| Link to State Page with this graph interactive |
COVID is the highest it's been since October 28 when 240 cases were reported.
December 15, 2023
December 9 numbers are posted. Down, down, down. The numbers compared to last week are down. But the Dec 2 numbers reported last week, on this week's chart, are up, up, up
RSV - Dec. 2 reported last week- 42; Dec. 2 reported this week- 44; Dec. 9 reported - 42
Flu - Dec. 2 reported last week - 142; Dec 2 reported this week - 186; Dec. 9 reported - 104
COVID - Dec. 2 reported last week - 171; Dec. 2 reported this week - 181; Dec. 9 reported - 164
From the CDC yesterday (Dec. 14, 2023)
"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is issuing this Health Alert Network (HAN) Health Advisory to alert healthcare providers to low vaccination rates against influenza, COVID-19, and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus). Low vaccination rates, coupled with ongoing increases in national and international respiratory disease activity caused by multiple pathogens, including influenza viruses, SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19), and RSV, could lead to more severe disease and increased healthcare capacity strain in the coming weeks. . ."
December 7, 2023
The December 2 numbers are up now.
RSV - no change: 42 listed now as Nov 25 number (it was 40 when it was originally* posted) and 42 now
Flu - big drop. 239 listed now as Nov 25 number (it was 218 when originally posted) now 144
COVID - Big rise. 118 listed now as Nov 25 number (same as original posting) now 171
*Each column has a date. If you put your cursor over the column (in the original, not the image above) you get the numbers. The numbers for a particular date when originally posted by the state may change the next week. I'm looking at the previous week's most recent numbers compared to the numbers when it was first posted. I'm not looking back further. I assume they are simply adding additional cases that get reported late. But I don't know that for sure.
November 30, 2023
The November 25 update came out. The numbers for the Nov. 18 column for RSV and Flu are the same as they were last week. But the COVID number originally published was 157 and today that Nov 18 number is 161.
- This week RSV cases went up from last week's 39 to this week's 40.
- This week's flu number dropped from last week's 299 to this week's 238.
- This week's COVID number dropped from last week's 161 (updated this week from 157 originally reported) to 118.
November 22, 2023
The dates for the columns are for Saturdays, but November 18, 2023 only showed up today (Wednesday). For Alaska the numbers for flu is down a lot, COVID is down a bit, RSV is up.
But I'd also note that the Nov 11 numbers listed on the Nov 18 chart (you have to go to the site and put your cursor over the column) are different from what they were when it was originally posted. Even the Nov 4 numbers are different from the previous two charts. It would be nice to track how often and how large the changes are to previous charts, but I'm only going to look at the current and previous weeks. But all these changes do affect our sense of how much change there is from week to week.
Nov 11, 2023 RSV Flu COVID
Original #s 22 475 179
This week 22 597 157
My assumption is that the latest numbers reflect late arriving data.
Using the data for Nov 11 on this week's chart:
- RSV is up 16 cases from 22 to 38
- Flu is down 249 cases from 537 to 289
- COVID is down 6 from 157 to 151.
November 16, 2023
I've been checking for updates. There's a new one up today (or maybe it was up yesterday), dated Nov 11, 2023. The good news is that all three categories improved.
But first, the adjustments. The Nov 4 chart (originally posted) showed 23 RSV, 729 flu, and 231 COVID. If you hover over the Nov 4 column this week (which I don't show in the chart below but you can do here - at least until they change it next report) you get 24 RSV, 729 flu, and 271 COVID. I'm still scratching my head, figuring out how to most clearly show the changes reported in the original charts and in the next reported charts. The numbers change, but the State doesn't really tell us they've made adjustments. (Well, maybe somewhere in their explanations they do, but I haven't found it.)
So how do I report the changes since last week? Based on the updated numbers? Or based on the numbers reported last week? I'm going to do it based on the updated numbers, because I assume those more accurately reflect data that came in late. You can do your own calculations based on the update I made last week.
With that caveat, RSV dropped from 24 reported cases to 22. (Apparently, based on comments on the site, mostly in Juneau.) Flu dropped significantly from 729 to 475 reported cases. COVID dropped from 271 to 179 reported cases.
The state website has a lot more detail. You can look at regional numbers and written explanations.
November 10, 2023
Below is the November 4 chart. But it wasn't up when I looked for it on November 7, 2023.
When you put the cursor on the column those little charts with the number pop up. I cut and pasted the Oct. 28 numbers onto this chart.
The weekly changes, as depicted on this chart, were:
RSV up from 10 cases to 23; Flu up from 599 cases to 726; COVID down from 285 to 231 cases.
But if you compare the numbers that were originally posted with the October 28 chart (compared to the October 28 column on the Nov 4 chart) the numbers were slightly different.
RSV was 10 on both charts.
Flu was 584 on the original chart and 599 on the updated chart.
COVID was 299 on the original chart and 285 on the updated chart.
The October 28, 2023 Chart
The October 14 Chart
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