REPOST: Nov 6, 2026: What A Trump Presidency Would Look Like

[I'm reposting this as the Guardian reports today:

"Trump administration pushing to hand parcel of Yosemite land to private developer – report"

The general predictions of Trump's behavior are pretty much spot on.  The specific predictions of actions aren't all right on the mark.  I predicted, for example, that Trump would build Trump resorts in National Parks.]

 

The Nov. 6, 2026 Post:

I suspect a Trump presidency would be worse than many imagine, and not as bad as some imagine.  After Bush v Gore I proposed that there be a cable channel that followed what happened with the actual winner and a channel that created a world in which the other won.  I'd really like the Trump supporters to see what a Trump-led US would really look like.  But neither candidate will actually be able to do much until members of Congress start breaking bread with members across the aisle again.

But here's a bit of prognostication based on what we do know about Trump.

Preface:  I’ve done a several posts about Donald Trump and what makes him tick.  There’s a post about his father and grandfather. There’s the post about his mentor, Roy Cohn.  And we’ve all seen his behavior on the campaign trail.  Using that history, I think we can predict how he will behave as president.  We can’t predict specific actions, but I think we can predict the kinds of actions he’s likely to take.  What he actually does will depend on events, on other people, and on Trump’s ability to figure out how to make the US government apparatus work. 

So, let’s start with his world view that underlies why he does what he does.  (A lot can be seen in his relationship with his father and with his brother who did not live up to his father’s ideal and thus was Donald’s first and closest example of a loser.  See the post on his father.)

Then we’ll look at the sorts of behaviors this world view leads to. 

Finally, I’ll give some examples of those behaviors once Trump gains the White House.   


Trump’s World View:

• Power is everything.
• Life is a long poker session and while you're going to lose a few games, at the end of the night you want to go home a winner.   Poker is about bluffing.  Poker-face means being able to lie without people reading your thoughts.  Honesty is a handicap in poker.  You can call people all sorts of vile names during the game yet go home as friends.
• The worst thing you can be is a loser.  Losers are contemptible.  Not being a loser is one of Trump’s key motivations to have power.  To do or say whatever to have power.  And he trashes his opponents. And when he doesn’t have power, he at least has to look like he does.   (Would those missing tax returns show us he isn't as wealthy as he claims?)
• With power he can do whatever he likes with impunity.  Rules don’t matter if you have power.  Reward and punishment are the basic tools.  
• You do favors for people who can help you.  You try to stay nice as long as they have something you need - prestige, support for your projects, fulfillment of your lusts.  You can take what you want from the less powerful and they don’t have the power to do anything about it.  You can take the women you want.  You can stiff contractors because  taking you to court will cost them more than walking away. You can pay off the rule makers, such as politicians,  to bend the law to your will.  
• But if they don’t cooperate, you punish them.  
• You hire lawyers to fix what you’ve broken.  Lawyers, don’t simply defend you, they are also attack dogs to destroy those who cross you.

Trump’s behavior based on his need to be the most powerful.

The need to appear powerful means:

• Honesty is a handicap.  He says whatever makes him look good.  He denies all allegations of  wrong doing.   He lies about opponents.   The only truth is Trump power.  Facts that don't support him are lies.
• The center of attention is the best place to be.
• Promoting his private interests and fulfilling his needs are the basic goals.
• Putting the Trump name on everything he owns and even things he doesn’t own.
• Attack, counterattack, never apologize. (See post on Roy Cohn.)

Trump as President

Applying  his world view and the behaviors they lead to, we can anticipate the kinds of things he's likely to do as president.

Center of attention - Winning the presidency will assure this goal for as long as he holds the presidency - which could be briefly for any number of reasons, or, if he has his way, could be for his lifetime.

He’ll want to be seen with the world’s most powerful leaders.  Putin may well be the first one to be feted at the White House.  Watch for opulent displays of power and wealth with the rich and famous and powerful leaders of the world. 

We can be sure his new Washington DC hotel will be the center of inaugural events as much if not more than the White House itself.   And we can assume that he will totally remodel the White House. Maybe a White Trump Tower?

The Trump name:  Look for the Trump name to appear on the White House and Air Force One.  If he can figure out a way to change  the name of the country to Trump’s United States of America, he will.  Maybe it will be on all passports.  On money.  On all signs for government buildings and national parks. How about Trump’s United States Marines?

Promoting his private interests, particularly his wealth:

Look for changes in the law that help Trump, starting with income taxes and deregulation.  He would find it useful to delete all the records of federal agencies that have records about him.  Again the IRS comes to mind and the court system. 

He’ll want to make government properties available to his real estate empire.  Or make arrangements that benefit him for other businesspeople to take over government property.  He'll be privatizing agencies and land.  He might want to make National Parks into Trump resorts.  As with his campaign, he'll have the government contract with various Trump businesses.  When challenged on this, he'll say he's saving the country money and attack the challengers.   


Attack, Counterattack, Never Apologize

Nixon had an enemies list.  It will look tame compared to Trump's list.  It will have anyone who has blocked his path toward something he wanted,  anyone who mentioned his small hands or didn't do his bidding fast enough.   Top on the list are the media who can expose his lies and constantly make his life miserable.  He’s already promised to change the libel laws.  He’ll change whatever laws he can to stop the media from saying bad things about him.

Those who block his policies will suffer merciless attacks in all the ways we’ve seen on the campaign, plus whatever levers of government power he gets access to.  Republicans (Paul Ryan is toast) and Democrats who stand up to him will be subject to withering attacks, both visible and behind the scenes.  Comey will become the new J. Edgar Hoover, using the FBI as Trump’s private mafia.  If Comey doesn’t cooperate, there will be a new FBI chief quickly.

The first foreign leaders - including terrorist leaders - to belittle Trump, will see massive retaliation.  If they are white, western nations, there will be vitriol and threats of economic sanctions.  If they are part of the rest of the world, don’t be surprised to see Trump USA Air Force jets unleashed on them. 


Surprises that shouldn’t be surprises

Given that Trump sees life as a game of negotiations, lots of what he's promised on the campaign is just bluffing.  Not everything will go as many expect. 

The Clinton's - Since Trump’s world is a series of poker games, once he wins, the election will be over.  All the anti -Clinton talk was bluster to win the election.  All he's charged her with, he'd do himself.  It was just competitive trash talking.  If he can find the Clintons and their foundation and allies useful, he could be gracious to them and find ways to use them to increase his own power. 

The Wall - I’m guessing there will be a symbolic move to start a wall along the Mexican border, but it might eventually evolve into a border-walk of casinos and hotels and a revised border patrol mission to help businesses get cheap labor and make deals with wealthy foreigners who can help the Trump mission. 

Trump Supporters - They’ll continue to be fed Trump’s racist, sexist, nationalist, anti-semitic rhetoric, but other than that, their lives won’t be better.  He was nice to them while he needed them.  To the extent that he will need them for his next terms, he’ll feed them the lies they love.  He'll rant to them about those blocking his reforms.   But he has no real interest in them other than what they can do for him and he has no idea of how to actually improve their lives.  Trump’s tax plans will cripple   the economy and the hollowness of making America great again will become obvious.  Except for the very, very rich.  But even they will be vulnerable to a failing economy. 


I could go on and on, but you get the idea.  These are the things that Trump would like to do if he could.  But I imagine he'll find the combined resistance of the Clinton supporters and the establishment Republicans he's displaced, of the bureaucracy which is intended to slow down despots, of the courts, and of women and  people of color will be overwhelming.   And don't forget the rest of the world.  Even his supporters will eventually figure out they've been had. 

Preferably, Clinton will win and the Trump presidency can be the basis of cable television series. 

Epstein Files - An Archeological Find That Will Be Dissected Forever

There are so many pages of documents in the Epstein files that have been released so far, that any kind of definitive conclusions are a long way off.  They have to be read, put into some kind of context, and links between documents have to be figured out.  Then links between the Epstein files and other data bases - court records, news articles, and other breaches like the Panama Papers.  Plus, many released files are still redacted and unredacted in ways they shouldn't be (hiding names other than victims, not hiding all the victim data.) 

What's public so far is about 50%. There are millions of files left,  which the administration seems to hope they won’t have to release.  People speculate these have more damning information in them.  That’s one logical train of thought.  Another is that the DOJ staff aren’t that organized that they can separate out the worst.  Another strategy would be to have them be nothing revealing as a way to tease, and then shut this all down.  That doesn’t seem too likely either.  

When I looked into one set of the Epstein files - court documents - there were hundreds of pages of routine court documents as lawyers made motions and set deadlines that seemed to be of little consequence, with a few more substantial documents about the specific court case (Epstein suing someone, Wexner?,  but nothing terribly revealing stood out to me at first glance.  Boring procedural motions and rulings mostly.  

Some online commentators are writing breathtaking headlines, overusing words like "BREAKING" and "BOMBSHELL" (all caps in originals) pointing to a newly revealed name, or evidence of the very sexual nature of Epstein and his clients/friends.  

Whether there is an important story or it's just more clickbait can be discerned by whether the 'punchline' is revealed in the social media post or whether you have to click to find out the allegedly important nugget.  Most of those nuggets will be micro level news.  

The meaning and context of everything will take a while to tease out.  After all, historians are still finding new twists to justify new biographies of people like Abraham Lincoln and there is far less actual information about Lincoln than there is, probably, about Epstein and his buddy Donald.  

The Bigger Picture

It’s clear to me that there is a bigger, complicated web of connections, influence, and crime.  Some sex trade related, some financial, some political, some national security related.  And while I write ‘some’ as

though these are all separate categories, I’m sure the Venn Diagrams will show a lot of overlap.  

I’ve seen several story lines that seem pretty likely and worth thinking about already:  The first is the idea that the culture of male power (sexual and otherwise) over young (and even older) females is not restricted to Epstein’s island and other properties or Mar-a-lago.  

1.  Rather it IS the culture of the US and probably most of the world.    

From Carole Cadwalladr's Substack, How to Survive the Broligarchy, We all live in Jeffrey Epstein's world , here are a couple of excerpts to give you a sense of her story (and which will come as no surprise to most women and the men they trust to talk to):

“Epstein has given us an extraordinary portal through which we can now see how hostile state influence, criminality and the impunity of the billionaire class are intimately enmeshed. That’s the piece I still want to write. But we can’t understand any of this until we realise that Epstein isn’t just a doorway, he’s also a mirror.  His culture is our culture.

The latest tranche of Epstein documents made it obvious. Consider all the “contrarians” and “anti-woke” warriors who show up in the latest dump: Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, Larry Summers, Steve Bannon, and of course, Donald Trump. With apologies to George Carlin: It’s a big club, and the worst people are in it — because their interests are all aligned. Pushing back on social justice, it turns out, was coordinated.

Being able to see their emails makes something very clear: The “anti-woke” movement was not a genteel intellectual inquiry, made by disinterested parties who cared deeply about free speech. It is a social circle of powerful people who feel threatened by #MeToo. Reading through the emails, it’s possible to see that Epstein himself coordinated pushback against #MeToo. Looking back, it seems obvious that sinking #MeToo also led to where we are now: a place where laws simply don’t apply if you have enough money and power. The same players are involved.”  (Emphasis added)

2.  "kind of a super concierge"  In this one, Epstein is a fixer for powerful people, to the point that a lot of people owe him favors.  This one gets into financial issues (to an extreme with Wexner) and politics

Molly Jong Fast's New York Times opinion piece, says the Epstein files show that it's more than just sex, "Mr. Epstein won favor and friendships by acting as a kind of superconcierge."  Here's an excerpt:

"Many people stuck with him even after he had gone to jail in 2008 in Florida for sex crimes, and in some cases even after he landed in jail again in 2019 on sex-trafficking charges. Back then, the plight of the victims often seemed to be an afterthought. That’s most likely because whatever they received from him in the past — access to career-enhancing people, access to young girls and an endless supply of freebies — might still be on offer. This is the nature of the Epstein files: It’s the record of what a global class of very privileged, accomplished and self-important people want to get gifted.

Sometimes it was a Prada bag. Other times it was a flight on Mr. Epstein’s jet, or a weekend at his island. Sometimes it was a donation to a charity or school. Or a job for their kid working on a Woody Allen film, or a shortcut for Mr. Allen’s own kid to get into Bard. Sometimes it was a “tall, Swedish blonde.” Other times it was a young woman who might be a “a little freaked by the age difference.”

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In writing about an earlier tranche of emails, in The Times, Anand Giridharadas asked: “How did Mr. Epstein manage to pull so many strangers close? The emails reveal a barter economy of nonpublic information that was a big draw. This is not a world where you bring a bottle of wine to dinner.”

Inside dope wasn’t the only thing Mr. Epstein had on hand. The picture provided by the latest files shows how Mr. Epstein won favor and friendships by acting as a kind of superconcierge. Sometimes that meant sending the helicopter to pick up guests, as Mr. Epstein offered to do for Elon Musk in a 2012 email, writing, “How many people will you be for the heli to island?” On another occasion, Mr. Musk asks his concierge Epstein, “Do you have any parties planned?” Mr. Epstein provided private plane trips, internships, Apple Watches, Hermès bags, extra-large zipper sweatshirts (those went to Steve Bannon), nearly $10,000 worth of boxers and T-shirts (Woody Allen) and an XXL cashmere sweater (Noam Chomsky). And then there’s the resistance Substack star Michael Wolff, who is all over the Epstein files, who emails Mr. Epstein, 'Shoes are very nice. Thanks.'”

3.  Epstein's Russian connections  - This one takes us into national security and politics

From Phillips P. O'Brien's Substack, Phillips's Newsletter, we get: "Why Does A Narcissist Accept Humiliation? Epstein Might Be The Answer."

"... another batch of millions of documents from the Jeffrey Epstein files were released and they made a very strong case that Epstein was closely linked to elements in Russian intelligence. There were trips, emails, and other assorted hints that Epstein was associated with and even coordinated activities with members of the Russian intelligence service. The evidence was strong enough that Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a man not prone to histrionics or overstatement, said that the Poles were investigating whether Epstein had been a Russian agent. Tusk’s exact words in a government meeting were:"

Even if the next set of documents released by the Department of Justice includes a video tape with a naked Donald Trump humping a 14 year old, that won't be the end of the insights we learn about the United States, about the very rich, about male privilege, especially while male privilege, about the network of ultra rich, and even international links to nations that are not considered our friends that amount to serious breaches of national security.  

It's going to take many years to map out all the connections and how those connections set up a class of people who, for the most part, have been above the law, and have perverted democracy in many ways.  

Stay tuned.  But don't hold your breath.  This is not a television mystery that ends with a neat conclusion after 90 minutes.  This is more like an archeological dig that will take decades to tie up the many threads and loose ends.

POP. 1208 - Small Town Texas Around 1917 As Described In 1964

 

I'd have never read this book if it hadn't been one of the book club choices.  Chosen by a member who is also an author.  As I read the book, I did think about why an author would pick this book. And at the book club meeting, he said he read it because it was on a list of books given to him by another author.  The 25 books that most influenced him as a writer.  And he also acknowledged some hesitation about recommending it to our group.  It was a test, of sorts, of us.  

It begins like this:

"Well, sir, I should have been sitting pretty, just about as pretty as a man could sit.  Here I was, the high sheriff of Potts County, and I was drawing almost two thousand dollars a year - not to mention what I could pick up on the side.  On top of that, I had free living quarters on the second floor of the courthouse, just as nice a place as a man could ask for, and it even had a bathroom so that I didn't have to bathe in a washtub or tramp outside to a privy, like most folks in town did. I guess you could say that Kingdom Come was really here as far as I was concerned.  I had it made, and it looked like I could go on having it made --being high sheriff of Potts County --as long as I minded my own business and didn't arrest no one unless I just couldn't get out of it and they didn't amount to nothin'.

And yet I was worried. I had so many troubles that I was worried plumb sick."

That really is a good way to start this book.  It foretells lots of the troubles without giving nothin' away.  Whoops.  It's catching.   

So what's wrong with this book?  Well, it's narrated by the main character, a very small town Sheriff, who is more than flawed.  It's all from his point of view and it's all in his colorful language.  The most difficult parts for me were the vivid descriptions of the town's black population.  

Why did that bother me?  Yes, of course, the N-word liberally spit out in some parts of the book.  And the disgustingly racist attitudes and situations portrayed.  But it was published in 1964 (and so written before the Civil Rights Act passed) and those were different times.  White folks still were the only editors of public speech back then.  And it describes a time almost 50 years earlier.  We shouldn't censor history because we don't like the words and situations that existed then.  We should learn from them and not in cleaned up versions.  And, if I recall correctly, Leonard Pitts' The Last Thing You Surrender - a 2019 novel by a black author - uses the N-word - and includes a very troubling lynching.  

But I'm not using that word in this post.  Mostly because I'm thinking of one particular friend who would probably be disturbed -rather than offended - seeing me spell it out.  

And I think that's what disturbed me about reading this book for the book club.  I didn't ask the man who recommended the book this question:  "If we had an African-American in our group, would you have recommended the book?"  The fact that the book club is all white men over 50 means that we can read a book like this without any of us personally feeling demeaned by the language and situations.  None of our families were the subject of this particular kind of inhumanity.  And the fact that the things done in the book to blacks was done by whites, adds to the awkwardness.  Women weren't treated well either.  Actually, no one was treated well in this story

Yet, I find that I can pretty much tell you the whole story, though not in quite the same colorful language as the high sheriff of Potts County.  

And the subject matter of this book seems to come from personal experience.  From Wikipedia:

"Thompson's father was sheriff of Caddo County, Oklahoma. He ran for the state legislature in 1906, but was defeated. Soon after he left the sheriff's office under a cloud due to rumors of embezzlement. The Thompson family moved to Texas."

Also from Wikipedia:

 Stephen King says he most admires Thompson's work because "The guy was over the top. The guy was absolutely over the top. Big Jim didn't know the meaning of the word stop. There are three brave lets inherent in the foregoing: He let himself see everything, he let himself write it down, then he let himself publish it."^[2]

There's no doubt that Thompson was using the sheriff to shine light on everything that was wrong about small town life in Oklahoma and Texas.  

Talking about his (the sheriff's) father:

"But that's the way my daddy was -- like those people.  They buy some book by a fella that don't know a god-dang thing more than they do (or he wouldn't be having to write books).  And that's supposed to set 'em straight about everything.  Or they buy themselves a bottle of pills.  Or they say the whole trouble is with other folks, and the only thing to do is get rid of 'em.  Or they claim we got to war with another country.  Or . . .  or God knows what all."

Seems those folks are still with us today.  Lots of them.  These are the folks who went to lynchings.  These are the folks who stormed the Capitol on January 6.  And the folks who rather take advice from Tucker Carlson that Dr. Fauci.  

I guess there was a lot in this book.  I think I knew it when I was reading it.  I just didn't like any of the people in the book.  Yes, there was probably something decent in them all, but the Sheriff was focused on the other parts.  If you asked me if would recommend the book, I'd answer using the sheriff's favorite phrase: "I wouldn't say that I would, but then I wouldn't say that I wouldn't."

"While America has the watch, the Taliban have the time" Thoughts On Afghanistan

[US consumers of news get lots of click-bate photos and headlines, but very little depth on any topic. This post offers a peek at the complexities involved in predicting the future of Afghanistan. ] 

I was going to sort out my thoughts on the US pulling all troops out of Afghanistan.  What exactly did I know, not know?  What do I think the likely consequences might be for the people of Afghanistan, the US, and the power dynamics of Central Asia.

My basic sense was that Afghanistan is likely to be taken over by the Taliban - that an extreme male oriented version of Islamic law would be imposed and those associated with the US would be assassinated, 

This would lead to lots of headlines blaming Biden for 'losing Afghanistan,' losing face for the US internationally, and give the Republicans one of their most effective weapons for the 2022 and 2024 elections.  

So I outlined those ideas, including the context that I didn't think would be included - that already England and the USSR have tried to take control of Afghanistan and eventually withdrew.  That others - particularly Afghanistan's neighbors - would work to keep Afghanistan stable and safe for them, as well as developing more extensive beneficial relationships between their countries.  I also saw come comparisons with our war in Vietnam and the kinds of rhetoric used when it was clear we had lost and were going to withdraw.  

Then I started googling to find out more about the interests and relationships Afghanistan has with its neighbors.  

After reading a number of articles on Afghanistan's relationships with its neighbors, my outlook is more hopeful.  The people of Afghanistan have suffered a great deal over the last 40 years - including the Taliban.  The US' departure may give the Taliban the symbolic victory they need to work more cooperatively with the Afghan government, and more importantly, with neighboring governments.  

Iran and Pakistan have vested interests in a friendly Afghanistan.  Iran's Shi'a government has serious issues with the Sunni Taliban.  But all the countries in the region have interests in regional infrastructure - roads, power, communications, trade.

Most significantly, China's been aggressively building a road to Pakistan as well as infrastructure projects in Africa, and trade agreements with Europe.  China's border with Afghanistan is the smallest, but China's power and expansionist interests the largest.  

While some of the terror people expect when the US pulls out completely may happen, I suspect the long term outlook for Afghanistan is not so grim.  China will spread its largesse among the Taliban and the Afghan government in exchange for a more secure country and an extension of their  Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and their China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).  

No matter what actually happens, we can count on the GOP to focus on the worst aspects.  But if they don't have any real issues with Biden, they would fabricate some fantastic tales.  

So here is my original outline and below are some links you might find interesting.

These are thoughts about the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.  

1. The GOP will try to use Afghanistan to defeat Biden in 2024.  Even though the GOP is not too interested in women's rights in the US, they used women's rights as one of the reasons to go into Afghanistan and defeat the Taliban. We will see images and stories after the US pulls out completely of assassinations, of girls being barred from schools, of imposition of Taliban rules like before US troops entered the country.  
2. The stories we won't hear 
1. A serious evaluation of why, after 20 years, the Afghan government couldn't defeat the Taliban.  
2. What would likely happen in Afghanistan and the cost to the US if we stayed and continued our 'nation building'
3. Calls for US troops to intervene to help the millions of people around the world whose lives are as difficult, as at risk, or worse, in other countries (remember how Trump helped the Syrian people?)
3. Stories we may hear:
1. How the British and Russians both withdrew from Afghanistan, unable to defeat local resistance.
2. How our initial goal was to get Al Qaeda and bin Laden, not to do democracy building
3. How getting into war is easier than getting out of it
4. How this is a humiliating defeat for the US
5. How Vietnam was also a humiliating defeat for the US, but eventually has become a thriving country, doing much better without us, even though we portrayed the Communist North as evil demons
6. How Afghanistan is not Vietnam 
4. The biggest irony, I think, is that the corruption we hear about in the Afghan government is, if not the result of, certainly greatly magnified, by the billions of dollars of US money and weapons and contracts that have flooded the country.  For those in a position to scoop up some of that largesse, it was an irresistible opportunity to make one's fortune, with hopes to leave when the spigot got turned off.  
5. Likely outcomes of leaving
1. The initial outcomes will favor the Taliban, 
2. The opposition to the Taliban, without the cushion of US money, will either be killed, flee the country, or take on the Taliban more seriously and without the fighting over US money
3. Neighboring countries (there are six - can you name them? Three were part of the Soviet Union which no longer has a border with Afghanistan.  See map below) will begin to adjust their Afghan policies when the US is gone and exert influence to protect their own interests such as
1. those who supported the Taliban because they were fighting the US will likely have a strong influence on the Taliban and/or withdraw their support
2. concern for radical religious beliefs destabilizing their own populations (Taliban are Sunni Muslims. Iran are Shi'a)
3. protect their borders 
1. stem tide of Afghan refugees coming over their borders
2. prevent military threats
4. exploit minerals and develop infrastructure projects and other economic opportunities  in Afghanistan
5. make deals to export their products to their nearest neighbor

US voters have short term memories.  Pulling out in 2021 gives Biden three years for this action to be lost in the flood of events that will occur between now and the election.  There may even be glimmers of good news to emerge from Afghanistan - but I think that will take longer.  

Source:  Geo Politics of South Asia and MENA

Don't miss the tiny, but significant border with China.  

Some interesting background:

Iran's Influence on Afghanistan (June 23, 2020) Middle East Institute - SourceWatch lists MEI's biggest funders as the world's major oil companies.

Iran-Taliban Growing Ties - What's Different This Time? (Feb 16, 2021)  The Atlantic Council - Media Bias/Fact Check says it's factual with a center-right bias.

Iran's Influence in Afghanistan (2014) Rand Corporation - AllSides rates Rand as "Leans Left" (Note, this was before Trump was seen even as a viable candidate)

No-Win War:  The Paradox of U.S.-Pakistan Relations in Afganistan's Shadow - Event Recap - (May 11, 2021) Wilson Center - MediaBias/Fact check rates Wilson Center between "least biased" and "left of center"

The headline quote of this post comes from this article and is attributed to Zahid Hussain quoting a Taliban leader

How Qatar came to host the Taliban (2013) BBC - Interesting background on how the Taliban leaders came to have their headquarters in Qatar.

Turkmenistan:  The Afghan connection (Jan 12, 2021) Eurasianet   Media Bias/Fact Check gives Eurasianet a high rating in factual reporting and a slightly left of center bia.Gives a sense of the kinds of issues  and projects that connect the two countries - particularly infrastructure projects. 

China Has a BIG Plan for Post-U.S. Afghanistan—and It’s Worth Billions: Beijing just can’t wait for the U.S. to get out of the way.(July 4, 2021) Daily Beast

Who are the Taliban? ( July 1, 2021) BBC

Will Turkey take over at Afghanistan's main airport?   (July 9, 2021)  Al Jazeera - Al Jazeera, like the Taliban, are headquartered in Doha, Qatar.

If China does move into the vacuum there are many possibilities.

• The GOP will trumpet how Biden 'lost' Afghanistan to China, as they did about losing Vietnam to the Communists and earlier, how Truman 'lost' China.  Of course, the US never 'had' any of those places to lose in the first place.
• The Afghan resistance to foreign rulers has been impressive.  They may quickly find China to be one more foreign nation trying to exploit them.  And they know how China is treating their fellow Muslims the Uighurs in the Chinese province of Xinjiang, which has China's tiny border with Afghanistan.  
• Tired of 40 years of war, the Taliban (they fought under other names before they became Taliban) may be ready to use the US withdrawal to declare victory and enjoy peace.  Though fighting is the one activity they are really good at and so may be more comfortable in that, and they may see this as their turn again to rule Afghanistan.  

Blogging During A Pandemic And Insurrection

1.  John Brown and Harper's Ferry

From History:

"Abolitionist John Brown leads a small group on a raid against a federal armory in Harpers Ferry, Virginia (now West Virginia), in an attempt to start an armed revolt of enslaved people and destroy the institution of slavery."

 This incident is in every American history textbook.  STOP  My students knew that if they wrote a sentence like that, I would underline it and write something like:  "Have you looked at every American history textbook?  

So, of course I had to see what I could find to answer that question.  I suspect one would have to sample as many US history books as one could gather and read through them.  (I did something like that in an article about the lack of Native American Law in public administration textbooks.)  In answer to that question I did find some related sites.  One is by a history teacher writing about how to use Harper's Ferry as a lesson. He writes:

"What the Textbooks Say

Brown’s raid often appears in the narrative of the Civil War as the point of no return—the moment in which the country’s deep divide between free and slave interests polarized with the injection of violence. Textbooks tend to describe the responses to Brown’s raid and trial in binary terms, with Northerners and Southerners displaying unified, and starkly opposite, reactions."

That doesn't answer the question, but does let us know it's a topic in many history textbooks both in the North and the South.  

Magazine of History looks at John Brown as an chance to teach history, not through the memorization of names and dates, but as an opportunity to explore difficult and ever present moral tensions.  

Although the institution of slavery was purged in the crucible of the American Civil War, John Brown's determination to expose and end chattel slavery still resonates. The multiple legacies of slavery and questions about the efficacy of violence as a tool for change in a democratic society continually bring historians and teachers back to the complicated life of John Brown. When students consider Brown's contributions to the American narrative, lines between advocacy and criminality, contrasts between intensity and obsession, and differences between democratic ideals and harsh reality are brought to the surface. To this day, artists, authors, historians, political activists, and creators of popular culture maintain a fascination with the antebellum rights-warrior and his death.

Wow.  I was planning an array of short comments in this post, and already I've gotten carried away on this first one.  But as I think about those who plundered the Capitol Wednesday, I have to think about Harper's Ferry and the fact that this nation is still divided over the same questions that led to Harper's Ferry.  While slavery has been abolished (but not completely eliminated if we consider things like sex trafficking and even prison labor, and some might suggest people who have no choice but to take minimum wage jobs), the belief that some people are inherently superior to other people based on skin color or ethnicity or religion is still capable of stirring people to violent attempts to overthrow the rule of law.  Just as the belief that everyone deserves to be treated by police with the same respect and the same level of force based on the real inherent danger to the police and the public got people out into the streets all summer.  

When John Brown took up arms, slavery was still legal in the United States.  His cause was to overturn those laws.  As much as I want to believe that slavery is inherently evil and that racism is evil, there are tens of millions of people who either disagree or think these issues are subordinate to other values they hold.  

2.  Both Energized And Drained by Zoom

Thursday I was in front of my screen from 3-3:30 watching Bridgman/Packer's presentation to APAP.  

"The Association of Performing Arts Professionals is the national service, advocacy and membership organization for the live performing arts field. APAP is dedicated to developing and supporting a robust performing arts presenting, booking and touring industry and the professionals who work within it."

My understanding is that every year they have artists - in this case dancers - perform for people who book acts to various venues around the country.  This year it was done virtually and Bridgman/Packer invited us to sit in.  Bridgman/Packer is a dance duo that totally dazzled me when I first saw them perform in Anchorage.  We've sent a modest check each year to support their work - it's criminal how geniuses in the arts have to scrape by.  Here's the blog post I wrote when we first saw them.  I was trying not to give anything away.  But the magic of what they do is combining live dancing with prerecorded dancing, use of screens and shadows.  It sounds odd, but it's amazing. In the showcase they talked about and showed video of their work.  They've been using abandoned factories in upstate New York as filmed backdrops.  They also do dances inside a large truck.  And they had one set that was filmed by a drone.  

Then I had back to back political fundraisers - we have a mayoral race in Anchorage in April - to attend.  And finally I tried to watch the Humanity Forum's annual awards to see Rachel Epstein get her award.  She ran the UAA bookstore speaker program for years and years - a real treat for many of us.  

3.  Turkish and Spanish

I've been doing 20-30 minutes a day of Spanish on Duolingo for over a year now.  It helps my vocabulary and grammar, and my listening, but not my speaking.  But I figure it keeps my brain active.  A couple of months ago I decided to add Turkish.  A month or two in Istanbul is something I've been wanting to do.  I skipped Istanbul in 1965 when I was hitching from Germany to Greece and back - promising to get there one day.  So we've watched a few Turkish movies on Netflix, and the one at the Anchorage International Film Festival.  Turkish definitely offers insights in grammar that I'd never considered.  Lots of things - like plurals and possessives - are done with suffixes.  Well, we add an 's' to make plurals, or 'ies' so I'm sure we're as bizarre to speakers of other languages.  Also, adjusting my brain and fingers to a Turkish keyboard is tricky too.  

4.   Prodding Dan

I sent my junior Senator another email.  I figure his original Koch backers have their own agenda for him in the US Senate so he's more loyal to that than to protecting Democracy.  But I figure I can keep reminding him I'm here and I want him to prove he's really a Marine.  And maybe the staffers who read the emails are more susceptible to reason.  

5.  Keeping My Photoshop Skills Alive

6.  And There's The Daily Alaska COVID Count Update

Here's Why I'm Calling This For Biden

 Despite all the handwringing, and recognizing that people don’t want to repeat their dashed expectations of 2016, I think all the signs point to Biden winning comfortably.  I know the media explore all the possible hidden traps - and some are there - but the media make money from tension and uncertainty.  

Basically, 2020 is VERY different from 2016. 

1. Trump was a con-artist who billed himself as an exceptionally talented business man in 2016 and people who were tired of ‘gridlock’ thought they should give him a try.  Drain the swamp and all that.  But the American people know a lot more about Trump now.  They only people still with him are those who 
1. Are like, or think they are like, Trump
1. The greedy - tax cuts and good stock market have increased their wealth
2. The needy - those who need a father figure to tell them what to think and do, to nurse their prejudices and encourage their hate, to protect them from their worst fears (includes members of evangelical and fundamentalist churches who support Trump and gun fetishists)
3. The racists and the misogynists and the abusive
4. Those who don’t believe in democracy
2. Are strongly anti-communist or anti-socialist - including those who came to the US from communist and/or socialist countries, and people who have no idea what those words mean, but are strongly against them.
3. Die-hard Republicans for whom voting for a Democrat would be an act of betrayal
2. Now we know about misinformation campaigns, infiltration of social media, Russian interference and other machinations to turn voters for Trump and against Hillary Clinton
3. The anti-Trump side has gained new recruits
1. People who didn’t realize how bad Trump would be  and didn’t vote or voted for 3rd party candidates are now ready to go vote like it matters
2. The constant barrage of videos of blacks being killed by cops, being Karened, plus Trump’s own support of white supremacy and other racist acts and the resulting Black Lives Matter protests have mobilized many non-voters of color and made many white folks more understanding of the level of racism in the US and the danger of another four years of Trump.
3. The many books unmasking the Trump myth, from scholars, from Trump family members and long time employees, from Trump appointees changed what people know about Trump.  And while most people don’t read books, key passages have been repeated over and over again in the media and social media.  All these have peeled off people who voted for Trump and converted them to non-voters or Biden voters
4. The Parkland Students movement has mobilized youth to register to vote.  They helped speed up the unraveling of the NRA and shown high school students they have power.
5. Floridians gave felons the right to vote and while Republicans are blocking their participation as best as they can, still tens of thousands can now vote.  
6. Climate change activists and Native Activists and others are all bringing new voters out.
7. There's a collection of 'traditional' Republicans who are working hard to defeat Trump, using the same PR techniques they've used in the past to defeat Democrats (and I'm worried about who their targets might be in the future)
4. COVID-19 has exposed all Trump’s flaws and incompetence as a president and reports say that this is mobilizing some of the older white vote away from Trump, as well as all those affected directly by the virus - essential workers, those who have gotten sick, and the families of those of have been sick or who have died
5. Biden is a very different candidate from Clinton
1. He’s not a woman.  As bad as it reflects on Americans, women candidates are judged differently from men and it costs them votes.  
2. He’s not Hillary.  She’s a very competent wonk, but didn’t come across as likable to many.  She also carried the baggage of the Clintons’ post presidency wealth acquisition.  (But also remember she got 3 million more votes than Trump did.)
3. Clinton had to fight constant attacks about Benghazi and emails.  The Hunter Biden attacks haven’t stuck.  Partly because we understand a lot more about Trump’s fake news industry.  
4. Biden is the opposite of Trump.  He’s decent, he’s compassionate, he’s got loving family and friends.  He makes as good of a uniter candidate as we could want in contrast to Trump’s divisiveness.
6. The Democrats have paid much more attention to the electoral college this time round
7. The Democrats have a huge team of lawyers ready to fight Trump challenges to the election.  There will be no Gore concession unless they are sure he lost the election fairly.
8. There’s been record numbers of early voters and mail-in voters - and as I’ve tried to outline above, the pool of anti-Trump new voters is much bigger than pro-Trump voters.
9. Democrats have raised unheard of money from online campaigns with relatively small average contributions which demonstrates a level of fear and activism we haven’t seen for a long time.  
10. The polls are in Biden’s favor, even in the swing states.  Some traditionally Republican strongholds are polling close.  

That doesn’t mean that Biden can’t lose (so, yes, if you haven’t voted yet, you still need to go vote.)   It doesn’t mean that Russians or Republicans haven’t schemed to hack voting machines so they turn every sixth Biden vote into a Trump vote.  That’s relatively easy to program and hard to detect if it’s done in just a few precincts.  But there are ways to spot such efforts.  

And it doesn’t mean that Biden will be a great president.  He’s got a pandemic to deal with.  He’s got the destruction of many government agencies to repair.  He’s got a volatile Trump out there who’s addicted to attention and adulation and would like nothing better to make Biden fail.  And if Democrats don’t flip the Senate, he’s got to fight for every inch.  

But it looks to me that all the little signs have lined up in Biden’s favor.  For him to lose a lot of things have to go haywire, and if that happens it will suggest that there were dirty tricks we hadn’t anticipated.  Everything that Trump says about his campaign - that if he doesn’t win it’s because the election was stolen - is actually the truth about the Biden campaign.  

Alaska COVID-19 Count Sun April 5, 2020 - 1 More Death to 6, 14 New Positives, 4 New Hospitalizations

Today's State Data page shows:

+1 death to 6
+4 hospitalizations to 20
+14 positive cases to 185

My Calendar Chart

CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH/APRIL 2020
Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
new/total	hos=hospital		12th  = 0/0	13th = 1/1	14th = 0/1	15th = 0/1
16th = 0/1	17th = 2/3	18th = 3/6	19th = 3/9	20th = 3/12	21st= 2/14	22nd= 8/22
23rd=14/36	24th =6/42 1 hos 1 dead	25th = 17/59 3 hos 1 dead	26th = 10/69 3 hos 1 dead	27th =16/89 5 hos 2 dead	28th = 13/102 6 hos 2 dead	29th=12/114 7 hos  3 dead
30th=5/119 7 hos 3 dead	31st= 14/133 9 hos 3 dead
April 2020		1st=  10/143 9 hos 3 dead	2nd=8(6)/149 13 hos 3 dead	3rd=8(11)157 15 hos 3 dead	4th=15/171 16 hos 5 dead	5th=14/185 20 hos 6 dead
				4/3 - State #s (11/157)don’t match yesterdays’       /149)
		Hospital and dead figures are total to date, not new on that date

Here's a screenshot of today's data.  I'll put the interactive version below it.

You can click on the image above to enlarge and focus it.  But only the one below is interactive.


Scroll right to see the rest of the data, but remember to scroll back to the left to see the rest of the post.  And play with the tabs to see different visualizations.

*Cases depicted in the map above represent residency of the infected person, and may not reflect where the person was located when tested positive. For example, the case shown in Petersburg Borough represents an individual who had residency status in Petersburg but was not currently residing there at the time of infection.

Most of the numbers work for me today.  There is still a glitch with the daily test graph.  It shows 18 new tests, but the cumulative tests graph shows about 244 new tests.  Nevertheless, the Department of Health has come a long way with these beautiful interactive graphics.



Here's my chart which shows the numbers day-by-day from March 11.

Alaska Covid-19 Data NewFor... by Steve on Scribd

Here are a couple of graphs of total cases and total dead.  The gap is where I moved to April and left a blank row.

We're still going up pretty steadily.

We had a six day plateau, and then we started going up again.  Two of the six deaths are Alaskans who died out of state.


All COVID and no play makes Steve a dull boy.  I'm working on a longer post that combines idea from the book I'm reading - The Overstory - and ideas about the pandemic, capitalism, how we treat the natural world, and laws of nature rebalancing things.  It's way too complicated right now, but I think it's right on the mark.  Be patient with me please.  I'm putting this here to put more pressure on myself to get it done.