NOTE: Alaska COVID-19 Count 3 begins here on May 3, 2021
My Alaska COVID-19 Count began in early March 2020. March, April, and May were daily posts. They were taking up too much room on the blog. So on June 1 I started posting them in a tab on top (Blogger calls these "Pages.") After four months, I felt the page was getting too long, so I'm starting a new page for the next six months. But the chart itself goes back to March 11, 2020. At first I was simply trying to document the daily changes in the numbers the State posted since the State replaced the previous day's numbers with new ones. One didn't have a way of seeing what the previous numbers had been.
Eventually the State adopted a standard COVID dashboard. The historical numbers are there. BUT they do make changes and adjustments.
The numbers on my chart are the numbers that were first put up. I calculate the "new resident cases" by subtracting yesterday's numbers from today's numbers. The State's new case numbers and mine don't always match. Presumably because they adjust the old numbers as new information comes in (perhaps a new resident case turns out to be a non-resident). So if there is a difference I post this way:
105/107 = my number/State's number.
In addition to the numbers in the chart, I highlight points for each day. Those are in reverse chronological order.
You can see the State's dashboard here. It has lots more information and interactive charts.
[If you're looking for posts before October 1, 2020 - go here. The March 2020- September 2020 tab is still up next to this one just under the orange blog header.]
Alaska Covid-19 Data NewFor... by Steve
[NOTE: I'm hoping to start a new tab on May 1. This page is getting too long and it's very slow when I type on it now. So look for Alaska COVID Count #3 on Monday, May 3.]
Friday, April 30, 2021 - Eight more people were hospitalized with COVID. 114 people had bad enough COVID symptoms since April 12 that they had to be hospitalized. That may not seem like a lot, but it's more than the 108 teachers at East High School. It's just six people fewer than the non-COVID capacity of the Anchorage Assembly Chamber. It's all the on-court players in 11 basketball games. There are currently 53 people with COVID and 33 available ICU beds in Alaska. That's the same as yesterday. It's the first time I can recall when that happened.
143/136 new resident cases.
About 8700 tests. The best number today is Test Positivity - down to 2.63. But as I mentioned yesterday, we're behind California on this important indicator.
Thursday, April 29, 2021 - 166/158 new resident cases. We have about 733,000 residents in Alaska. So dividing 166 by 7.3, I get 22 new cases/100K people. By comparison, California today has a rate of 4.4 new cases/100K people. So, as good as Alaskans think they're doing fighting COVID compared to other places, it's no longer true. California's Test Positivity is down to 1.2. We're still at 2.8.
There were no new deaths and six new hospitalizations. There are now 53 current COVID patients in Alaskan hospitals (down one) and there are 33 available ICU beds (down eight.)
Got an email back from the State HHS- They had 2,083,886 tests for yesterday (there was a much lower number on the Dashboard) so I corrected that. There were about 7500 more tests today.
Wednesday, April 28, 2021 - 184/181 new resident cases. Up from yesterday, but still under 200. Why aren't these numbers going down? I check the locations of the cases:
Fairbanks NSB= 59 Anchorage-44 Matsu = 42 Kenai =16 Kusilvak - 7 Ketchikan = 3 Bethel =3 Nome =1 Copper River = 1 Juneau = 1 Prince of Wales = 1 SE Fairbanks = 1 This is just one day so it may not be representative . You can look at locations over time here. When the cursor hovers over the daily peaks and valleys of the bar chart, you can see specific numbers for specific locations. It's sensitive so be careful that you stay on the right date.
No new deaths. Five new hospitalizations. Hospitalized COVID patients is up 12 to 54 but nine of those are listed as suspected COVID. Available ICU beds is unchanged at 41.
Today's total tests was listed as 2,028,101. This is odd since the total was 2,025,146 April 19 and have gone up every day. Yesterday the number was 2,028,101. Something is wrong. One possible explanation is that they've corrected errors. In any case I've sent an email to check on this. I'll update when I get a response. Test Positivity is up .03 to 2.83.
Tuesday, April 27, 2021 - 130/130 new resident cases. A dip sort of. No new deaths, and eight new hospitalizations. Three more currently hospitalized COVID patients (42). Nine fewer available ICU beds(41). But ICU beds count is all patients, not just COVID.
About 4400 tests. Test Positivity basically steady at 2.8.
Monday, April 26, 2021 - We're not surging, but our decline isn't moving down either. And the State now gives us a bunch of deaths at once - as they go through the data and pull out the COVID deaths, I'm guessing - but it means the daily tracking doesn't reflect reality.
12 more deaths reported today. Well the total deaths posted today was 341, which is twelve more than Friday's total of 329. I figure the new hospitalizations the same way - twelve more since Friday. Current hospitalized COVID patients is listed as 39 (down 8) and available ICU beds is up one to 50.
And new resident cases the same way- 439/83 more than the Friday total. But the State's new resident cases today is listed as 83. 439 over three days equals about 146 per day. So even if there were only 83 since yesterday (my number is since Friday), then the average for the other two days would be about 175. That's under 200, but while we flirt with <100, we don't stay there.
There are about 19,600 tests since Friday. Today's best news is that Test Positivity went back below 3.0 to 2.79. I'm waiting till we're under 2.0 consistently.
State doesn't update numbers over the weekends
Friday, April 23, 2021 - All indicators are the same or better today. No new deaths. Six new hospitalizations. Current COVID patients hospitalized is 47 (down two) and there's one more vacant ICU bed - 47.
145/139 new resident cases. Significantly below yesterday's 224/212.
About 3200 tests. Test Positivity down slightly to 3.13.
My guess is the folks still refusing to wear masks are the same folks who speed, pass on curves, run red lights, and do other things that demonstrate a need for immediate short term gain without regard to the safety of others. And for some (many?) a taste for adrenalin rushes.
Thursday, April 22, 2021 - The new case stats and Test Positivity are up. Other stats ok.
No new deaths, Eight new hospitalizations, but total current hospitalized COVID patients down by one to 49. Available ICU beds up by three to 47.
225/212 new resident cases. Again, who are all these people contracting COVID?
About 8400 tests. Even with that many tests, Test Positivity was up to 3.3. A key sign we aren't improving.
Wednesday, April 21, 2021 - Wrong direction today. No deaths, only five new hospitalizations. But the current number of COVID patients hospitalized went up by 11 to 50. Some of thos eare only 'suspected' COVID patients, which might explain the difference. There are nine fewer available ICU beds in Alaska - 44.
199/199 new resident COVD cases. How?!! Well we have a mayoral runoff candidate who's opposed to mask mandates and restricting businesses.
About 5,900 tests. Test Positivity is back up over 3.0 to 3.13.
Tuesday, April 20, 2021 - Good signs today, but we need to remember that one day means nothing. It could be simple reporting issues, or just a blip in a trend.
No new deaths, Six new hospitalizations. 39 COVID patients in the hospital (no change).
103/100 new resident cases. We toyed with the 100 threshold in September, the went above mostly for good on September 24, 2020. Since that date we've been under 100 new daily cases with just seven exceptions starting in late January 2021. So getting below 100 per day and staying there (even just 'mostly') would be a real positive indicator things are getting better.
There were 5,200 tests. Test Positivity is 2.93. Getting this number under 2.0 and holding it there will be a huge milestone .
Monday, April 19, 2021 - No new deaths since Friday. Only 3 hospitalizations over the weekend. That seems low. Total currently hospitalized with COVID is down three to 39. Available ICU beds are up six to 48.
430/184 new resident cases. That's an average of almost 180 a day. But the State only reports 114 since, presumably, Sunday numbers were posted.
About 15,000 tests since Friday. Test Positivity dipped to 2.83.
Friday, April 16, 2021 - No new deaths. 11 new hospitalizations. There are 42 Alaskans currently in the hospital with COVID. And 42 available ICU beds.
184/182 new resident cases. Under 200, yes. But still over 100.
8700 tests. Test Positivity is back under 3.0 at 2.98.
Thursday, April 15, 2021 - It appears that yesterday, deaths got updated because they jumped 19 to 129. That didn't happen in one day in reality, just in the record keeping, I'm sure. As you can see from the table, deaths and hospitalizations didn't change from yesterday to today. Don't know if they really didn't or it was the result of trying to summon yesterday's Dashboard today.
In any case it appears that the increase in resident cases yesterday was 195/185 and today 185/185.
We broke the 2 million mark in tests - 2,000,998. That's 24,000 tests since Tuesday. Test Positivity is 3.05. The Assembly gave the Mayor the power to extend COVID restrictions until July. That's a positive step. The mayoral runoff is between a science and health guy (Dunbar) and a skeptic who values keeping businesses open (Bronson.) In decision theory when one outcome is good and the other is terrible, they say there really is no decision to make.
Wednesday, April 14, 2021 - The times I looked for new numbers they weren't there. And then I got distracted. I teased some of the 4/14 numbers out of the Dashboard, but not all so just look at the 4/15 notes and the table.
Tuesday, April 13, 2021 - The numbers go this way and that. No new deaths, but 15 folks were hospitalized. Current COVID patients hospitalized = 53, which is the highest number since January 9! There are 44 available ICU beds in Alaska.
134/135 new resident cases. That's better than recent days, but there were 22 new non-resident cases which is higher than recent days.
About 5100 tests. Test Positivity went back up over 3.0 to 3.1.
Monday, April 12,2021 - It's after a weekend of no Dashboards so the numbers I calculate represent three days. 386/78 new resident cases. My386 averages out to 128 per day. But if one day was really only 78, then other two days would be closer to 150 each. Still, that's well below the 200+ numbers we've been seeing.
There was one new death and 11 new hospitalizations. But four fewer people currently in the hospital with COVID (46) and the number of available ICU beds is unchanged at 31.
15, 600 tests over the weekend and - the best news - Test Positivity is back under 3%. But 2.97 isn't a lot below.
Friday, April 9, 2021 - No new deaths. One new hospitalization. There are 50 people currently hospitalized for COVID (seven of those suspected COVID.)
241/241 new resident cases. We should be under 100 by now, but we're moving back up instead of continuing downward.
(These numbers assume that 4/7 numbers are right.)
Test numbers are suspicious and I'm guessing yesterday's number is off (though it's between today's and April 7 number. But there are only about 500 more tests listed today which would be a very low number. Test Positivity is 3.17. We were approaching 1.0 not long ago, but now we're going back up.
Thursday, April 8, 2021 - I missed Thursday. I was able to get 4/8 dashboards for cases and tests, but not hospitalizations. At least the numbers look like numbers that fit between 4/7 and 4/9.
No new deaths. Five new hospitalizations.
225/241 new resident cases. Not good.
The test numbers do look funny. About 16,000 is high, especially when 4/9 tests are less than 200.
Test Positivity is 3.16.
Wednesday, April 7, 2021 - Numbers moving in the wrong direction again. Fortunately, there were no new deaths. The state total is 309 and it's been there for two weeks now. There were five new hospitalizations. But the hospitalization Dashboard says there are six more people currently hospitalized (43) and there is one less available ICU bed (32) than yesterday.
215/217 new cases. We shouldn't be over 200 anymore. But we are.
About 8700 tests yesterday. That's the same as four full houses at the Atwood Auditorium getting tested. That many people either were required because of their work or travel or because they thought they might have COVID. And Test Positivity went up from 3.0 to 3.07. Until last week, we'd been under 3.0 since January 24. Except for yesterday, we have been over 3.0 for a week.
It's not over until the virus can't find a host. And as long as viruses can find a host, there's a chance that a new variant that isn't stopped by the vaccine and then everything starts all over.
Tuesday, April 6, 2021 - Better movement today. No new deaths. Eight more people hospitalized since yesterday. That info is from the cases Dashboard, which shows total of all patients hospitalized. On the hospitalization Dashboard, which shows current hospitalizations, nothing changed from yesterday. Since these other dashboards don't have dates - at least I haven't found them - the only way I know if they were updated is if the numbers change. So maybe this one wasn't updated.
New resident cases is below 100- 79/83. That's a good sign.
About 4600 tests. Test Positivity dropped below 3.0 to 2.96. That's not a big drop, but it's movement in the right direction. But it only counts as positive if it continues dropping over the next week.
Monday, April 5, 2021 - Monday updates are misleading now that the State doesn't do weekend Dashboards. We have a total of 309 Alaska resident deaths. That number hasn't changed since Wednesday March 25. The state reports a total of 1,370 hospitalizations, four more than Friday. But there are five fewer COVID patients currently in the hospital than there were Friday - 37. And there are four more available ICU beds - 33.
493/118 new resident cases. 493 is what I get when I subtract Friday's total cases from today's. The state reports only 118, based, I think, on other data, which, if I worked harder, I could probably extract from data bases they have links to. The three day average since Friday is about 164. So 118 would have been the low number and the other two days higher.
Since Friday, about 15,000 tests. Test Positivity is at 3.0.
I was going to report on the percent of Alaskans vaccinated, but that Dashboard is having technical difficulties. But you can check on your at this link later to see if they've fixed it.
Friday, April 2, 2021 - Since the State isn't updating over the weekend, I find myself slipping too. Here I am posting Friday's numbers on Saturday. It's not good. No new deaths and only one new hospitalization listed. But the hospital dashboard says there are eight more COVID patients currently hospitalized (42) and five fewer available ICU beds (29).
195/? new resident cases. The question mark is because the State cases dashboard uses the new cases box to tell people the site hasn't been updated. It wasn't up yet when I looked yesterday.
There were about 15,000 tests since Wednesday (again I never found an updated Test dashboard on Thursday. Test Positivity is 3.0.
Why do people need to wear masks? Because the virus needs a human host. Masks help slow down the virus from getting from one person to another. But the longer the virus finds new hosts, the greater the likelihood of the virus mutating into a more potent or just vaccine immune variety. But if people still believe Trump won the election why would they believe anything experts say about the virus. Some people take advantage of the expertise and experiences of others. Some need to learn through personal experience.
Thursday, April 1, 2021 - Today two days of case info are up, but tests aren't up.
Two days' data: No new deaths. 15 new hospitalizations. 390/231new resident cases. Or 195/day. The new cases have been going back up.
34 current hospitalizations (down one.) 34 Available ICU beds. No change.
No test results.
Wednesday, March 31, 2021 - Yesterday the test dashboard went up very late. Today it's up, but the cases dashboard isn't (it's 6:12 pm). There were not quite 23,000 tests in the four days from Friday to Tuesday, just under 6000 a day. Yesterday's Test Positive was high at 2.85. Today it's up to 308, the first time it's been over 3.0 since January 24. There were about 8000 more tests reported today. Given Test Positivity is up, I'm guessing we're going to see a good jump in new cases too.
The current hospital data were up too: Up one to 35 COVID patients currently in the hospital. Available ICU beds went down 13 to 34.
Tuesday, March 30, 2021 - Long weekend, big numbers.
Since the last posting Friday (four days of numbers including today) there have been 623/88 new resident cases. The State's 88 is some number that reflects new cases since yesterday, but seems strangely low given there was an average of 155 new cases since Friday. It means the average for the other three days was 184. But more likely it has to do with how they count and update the numbers.
No new deaths (we're at 309 total). 110 new hospitalizations (again, subtracting today's total (60,333) from Friday's (59,710.) Again, the numbers are odd since there are only 34 COVID patients reported currently in the hospital. And there are (this is good) 47 available ICU beds.
The Test Dashboard has not been updated, so I have no new numbers.
Monday, March 29, 2021 - It's 4pm and the State's Dashboards have not been updated. OK, it is a state holiday - Seward's Day. I understand people at DHSS are really working hard. But this is the second three-day weekend with three days with no updates. I don't know what all it takes to gather all the new data and post it. But I do know that if it is complicated it will be more so after three days. If not, then someone could have taken an hour or less and posted today.
Friday, March 26, 2021 - No new deaths, only one new hospitalization. 30 COVID patients are currently in a hospital. (One less than yesterday.) There are five more available ICU beds statewide - 33.
182/179 new resident cases. This is simply too many at this stage.
About 9500 tests. Test Positivity is up to 2.77. The highest since January28 when it was 2.87.
Thursday, March 25, 2021 - One new death. Three new hospitalizations. 145/143 new resident cases. There were 31 COVID patients hospitalized in the State. That's six fewer than yesterday. That's good. But there are nine fewer available ICU beds. That's not good. But that isn't only COVID patients using ICU. But the alarming part is that there are only five available ICU beds in Anchorage! So if we had any event - vehicle crash, earthquake - that resulted in more than five serious injuries, we'd be out of ICU beds.
Almost 7000 tests. Test Positivity was unchanged at 2.68.
Wednesday, March 24, 2021 - Continue to trend in the wrong direction. New deaths (0) and hospitalizations (7) are ok. 218/207 new resident cases is NOT ok. There are six fewer COVID patients currently in the hospital (37), but eight fewer available ICU beds (37).
About 6000 tests. Our Test Positivity has been under 3 since January. It was 3.07 January 26. The highest it's been since January 29 is 2.72. The next highest since then was March 11 - 2.68. And today we're at 2.68 again.
Tuesday, March 23, 2021 - Our numbers, overall, are going slightly in the wrong direction.
Two new deaths. 11 new hospitalizations. But current COVID patients in the hospital is down one to 43. Available ICU beds are up five to 45.
172/173 new resident cases. This is the most troubling number. We can't stay below 100 for more than a day or two. If you scroll the chart above you'll see we were mostly under 30 new cases a day until the end of June last year. Most days were under 10, even ones and zeroes. June 30 with had 36 new cases. Then a week later we had two in the 40s. July 10, we had 51. July 11, 62/63. July 12, 94. Then on July 26 we hit 186 new resident cases. We were mostly below 100 after the beginning of August. September we were back over 100 most days. We hit 211 on October 6. By November we had days with 300, 400s, 500s, 600s, and 700s. 944 on Dec 5. Bouncing wildly up and down in December.
January was generally lower - 300s, 400s, 200s. Never below 100. Feb 1 we were 70/63. I thought we were finally going to make it. But mostly, since then, we've plateaued between 100 and 300, with a few days under 100. We need to do better.
About 6100 tests. Test Positivity is up .02 to 2.43.
Monday, March 22, 2021 - No new deaths reported. Five new hospitalizations over the weekend. Five more people are currently hospitalized with COVID than reported Friday - 44. There is one fewer available ICU beds in Alaska - 40
348/51 new resident cases reported today. My number is for the three days since Friday, the State's number presumably is since yesterday. There would have been an average of 116 cases for each of the three days, so if there were only 51 since yesterday, the previous two days would have 65 more cases together.
There were about 20,000 tests and the Test Positivity rate is up to 2.43. We're not getting better yet, but we aren't getting too much worse.
Friday, March 19, 2021 - No new deaths, Only 1 new hospitalization. Currently in the hospital with COOVID - 39. No change from yesterday. But two fewer available ICU beds -39.
105/64 new resident cases. Not sure why so big a discrepancy. I just subtract yesterday's total cases (58,540) from today's (58,645). I like the State's number better.
Just under 4000 tests. Test Positivity down .02 to 3.32.
Remember, State doesn't put up weekend numbers anymore, so I get two days off. But the virus doesn't take vacations.
Thursday, March 18, 2021 - Three new deaths, two new hospitalizations. Currently hospitalized is down 4 to 39. Available ICU beds up eight to 41.
112/152 new resident cases. (Total 58,540)
8500 tests. Test Positivity up .07 to 2.34.
Wednesday, March 17, 2021 ☘️- One more death, 16 more hospitalizations. Currently hospitalized 43 (11 of those are suspected COVID cases) and down eleven to 33 available ICU beds.
180 new resident cases. (Yesterday I had lots of distractions and I'm only getting to this now - 3/18) and the Dashboard doesn't show the State's number of new cases anymore.) But 180 is definitely moving in the wrong direction.
About 6200 tests. Test Positivity up .06 to 2.27.
Tuesday, March 16, 2021 - We're in this not bad, but not good situation. We're lower than we were, but our path toward zero new cases (or at least fewer than 10) is not at all direct. We dip, then we move back up, then dip. Even though treatments are better, we still had a new death reported yesterday.
Today's report - no new deaths, but 15 new hospitalizations. Current COVID patients hospitalized is down one to 39. There are five more ICU beds available - 44 - statewide.
101/102 new resident cases.
6200 tests. Test Positivity barely down to 2.21.
Monday, March 15, 2021 - Monday numbers - the ones I have to calculate from totals - are tricky because they include the missing Saturday and Sunday numbers.
No new deaths. One new hospitalization.That number doesn't look right. It's for three days and it's the lowest number since March 3 when there was a -1. (Probably an adjustment, say like moving it from resident to non-resident.) Current hospitalizations went up 4 to 40 (includes suspected COVID patients.) Available ICU beds went up one since Friday to 39.
333/96 new resident cases. The 333 is an average of 111 per day.
About 19,700 tests. Test Positivity is down .22 to 2.24.
26.8% of Alaskans (195,328) have had at least one vaccine. 18.6% are fully vaccinated (135,482).
Compare that to the 58,157 Alaskans who have tested positive in Alaska.
Friday, March 12, 2021 - A little better today, though there was a new death. Also six new hospitalizations. Currently hospitalized COVID patients went down two to 36. Available ICU beds went up seven to 38 - that's in the whole state.
But new resident cases was down to 107/112. It's new cases that lead to future hospitalizations and deaths. So it's new cases I want to see decline the most.
About 6600 tests. Test Positivity down slightly to 2.52 from 2.68.
Remember - no weekend updates now that the State doesn't update the Dashboards over the weekends.
Thursday, March 11, 2021 - It's exactly one year since I started the table above. The first numbers I posted were:
- Total to date positive /confirmed Alaska residents = 0,
- New Pos= 0
- Total tests to date Negative = 60
- Total tests to date= 60
Today's new positive residents = 228/226. This is a disturbing increase. The highest since January 22, 2021 when it was 263/262. (Since the State stopped reporting on weekends, there have been some higher numbers but those have been for two or three days. The averages were lower.)
No new deaths. Two new hospitalizations. COVID patients in the hospital went up 3 to 38. (The discrepancy is probably because I lump the suspected COVID patients in the hospital with the confirmed.) Available ICU beds went down seven to 31.
About 6,600 tests and Test Positivity jumped from 2.28 yesterday to 2.68 today. Let's hope today's foray above 200 new cases is a fluke, and not the result of loosened restrictions that recently went into effect.
Wednesday, March 10, 2021 - 145/144 new resident cases. We just can't stay under 100 new cases per day for more than one day. But we are staying under 200 cases per day.
No new deaths. 2 new hospitalizations. Total hospitalized with COVID currently is down two from yesterday to 35. But available ICU beds is also down (the wrong direction) by four, to 39.
About 10,100 tests. But Test Positivity slipped up to 2.28. This isn't over yet.
Tuesday, March 9, 2021 - No new deaths. 10 new hospitalizations. Current number of COVID patients in the hospital is 37, up five from yesterday. Also, six fewer available ICU beds - 43.
88/90 new cases.
About 4200 tests. Test Positivity up slightly to 2.11.
Alaska announced today that anyone over 16 years of age can get vaccinated. I guess that's one way to increase tourism. Actually I don't know the details of whether non-residents are eligible. It's good news for the residents of Alaska. But it highlights the inequities when essential workers in other states still can't get vaccinated.
Monday, March 8, 2021 - Since the State stopped posting Dashboard updates on weekends, the Monday numbers based on totals (deaths, hospitalizations, new cases) represent three days change.
But, positively, no new deaths and only five new hospitalizations since Friday's postings. Total COVID patients currently hospitalized = 32. Available ICU beds = 49. Both are slight improvements over Friday.
330/92 new resident cases. That's an average 110 per day.
About 19,000 tests. Test Positivity is down to 2.04.
I'd also note that 16% of Alaska's population is now fully vaccinated (117,861) and 23% has had at least one shot. According to Becker's Hospital Review we're 47th among states in terms of percent of vaccines administered of those distributed to the state - 69.14%
On the other hand, a Johns Hopkins map shows us with the highest percent of people fully vaccinated. New Mexico is second.
Friday, March 5, 2021 - Ditto yesterday's comments. But two new deaths, three new hospitalizations. Currently hospitalized COVID patients is up one to 33 statewide. Nine more available ICU beds to 47.
141/138 new resident cases and eleven new non-res cases.
About 7200 tests. Test Positivity is down .08 to 2.17. Anchorage restrictions greatly reduced starting Monday. That might show up in the numbers in a week or ten days. Unless everyone wears masks, etc.
Thursday, March 4, 2021 - More in the doldrums, neither good nor bad. No new deaths. Five new hospitalizations. Six more COVID patients currently in the hospital - 32. One more available ICU bed - 38.
140/126 new resident cases (total 56,745.) Ten new non-resident cases.
13,400 tests. Test Positivity down .19 to 2.25.
I saw a Tweet where a state legislator said they didn't need masks during AIDS so we don't need masks now. I guess he doesn't realize that condoms are a form of mask.
Wednesday, March 3, 2021 - No new deaths and total hospitalizations went down by one to 1245. Maybe one got moved from resident to non-resident. Same number of COVID patients currently in the hospital as yesterday - 26, but there are 12 fewer available ICU beds- 37. But that figure includes non-COVID patients.
177/173 new res cases. That's the highest number in a week. And there were 16 new non-res cases.
About 7400 tests. Test Positivity is up to 2.44. That's the highest in four weeks. Not sure the overall slope is down anymore. At best it might be level, but it looks to be edging back up.
Tuesday, March 2, 2021 - Two new deaths. 6 new hospitalizations. COVID patients currently in the hospital is up one - 26. Available ICU beds is down one - 49.
89/124 new resident cases. But there were also 67 non resident new cases.
6400 tests. Test Positivity up to 2.25.
Monday, March 1, 2021 - Since the State isn't posting to their Dashboard on weekends any more, the Monday numbers are a little funny in the categories where I subtract yesterday from today - deaths, hospitalizations, and new resident and non resident cases.
There were ten more deaths Monday, since the numbers posted Friday (for Thursday). That's a high number, even for three days, so I'm guessing this includes catch-up as old death certificates get studied. And two more hospitalizations. But total people currently in the hospital is only 25, the lowest since I've been tracking this number November 18. Available ICU beds is the highest - 50 - is the highest since November 24 when it was 54.
350/68 new resident cases. My number is from Friday and presumably the State's number is from Sunday. 350 would average 116+ for each of the three days. But if there were only 68 yesterday, the the previous two days averaged 141.
About 19,400 tests. Test positivity is 2.16.
So, overall, as we close in on a year of tracking these numbers, our new cases are lower, but tend to bounce up and down.
Deaths are increasing as fast as they were. Let's look at some total deaths over time.
| Total Deaths | Over Time | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 1, 2020 | Oct 1, 2020 | Nov 1,2020 | Dec 1, 2020 | Jan 1,2021 | Feb 1,2021 | March 1, 2021 |
| 39 | 57 | 83 | 121 | 214 | 260 | 297 |
| +15 | +18 | +26 | +38 | +93 | +46 | +37 |
Friday, February 26, 2021 - 103/102 new resident cases. No new deaths. Five new hospitalizations. Currently hospitalized COVID patients down by two to 43. But available ICU beds are down 11 statewide to 27. Anchorage only has seven. Both are in the alert stage.
About 8600 tests. Test Positivity up .03 to 2.17.
Thursday, February 25, 2021 - Except for new cases and hospitalizations, the numbers improved.
150/149 new resident cases is actually better than yesterday, but I was hoping we'd be under 100 again. New non-res cases = 41.
One less hospitalized COVID patient (45) and six more available ICU beds.
8900 tests and Test Positivity down a bit to 2.14.
Wednesday, February 24, 2021 - No new deaths or hospitalizations reported. Except that the number of current COVID patients hospitalized is up eight to 46 from yesterday. And available ICU beds are down five to 32. Though this stat includes patients without COVID as well.
Most numbers went in the wrong direction today. Back up to 176/175 new resident cases.
About 8700 tests and Test Positivity went back up to 2.22. The general trend has been good lately, but we seem to take one step back for every few steps forward.
Tuesday, February 23, 2021 - Good news today. There were only 53/56 new resident cases! That's the lowest number since September 23. 2020 when there were 54/56. That's a five month low.
No new deaths, but there were 9 new hospitalizations. Down one to 38 for current hospitalizations. But there are three fewer available ICU beds (37.)
About 6700 tests. Test Positivity is down again a smidgen to 2.02, the lowest since September 13 when it was 1.96. We're moving in the right direction. As long as we keep getting people vaccinated, no terrible COVID variations come our way, and people are reasonably good about masks and distancing, we might be getting over this in the next four or five months. But let's just take it one day at a time.
Monday, February 22, 2021 - One death and six hospitalizations since Friday. There are five more COVID patients hospitalized since Friday (39) and four fewer available ICU beds.
309/64 new resident cases. 305 represents the number since Friday, so that's an average of 103 for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. (Friday's posted numbers are for Thursday.) The low one hundreds is an improvement.
Not quite 20,000 tests since Friday and Test Positivity is at its lowest (2.06) since September 14 when it was 2.04. That makes it a five month low. Another positive sign.
142,531 Alaskans have gotten their first vaccine - that's about 20% of the population. 87,332 Alaskans have been fully vaccinated. That's more than 10% of the population. A large part of the success of the vaccination program goes to the Alaska Native drive to vaccinate people in the villages as well as in the cities.
The State doesn't post the weekend numbers on the Dashboard. I might be able to get numbers from one of their tables. But don't expect any weekend up dates.
Friday, February 19, 2021 - A relatively good day, but too many new cases.
No new deaths or hospitalizations. 34 Covid patients in the hospital (down three) and 44 available ICU beds (up 3).
189/185 new resident cases and 25 non-resident cases.
About 10,400 tests. Test Positivity at 2.2.
Thursday, February 18, 2021 - We're back up to 210/209 new resident cases. I hope this is a one day aberration.
No new deaths. Five new hospitalizations. Five more COVID patients in the hospital (37) and six fewer ICU beds available (41).
About 7500 tests. Test Positivity down again to 2.27.
Wednesday, February 17, 2021 - One new death. Three new hospitalizations. Current hospitalized Covid patients is down eleven to 32. Available ICU beds are down five to 47.
63/37 new resident cases. (Yes, my number is a lot higher than the State's number. I simply subtract yesterday's total resident cases from today's. Not sure why the state has so few. But both numbers are under 100 and that's good.
About 6,100 tests. But Test Positivity is up to 2.42. Yesterday was 2.12. But these are seven day rolling averages so the can vary a lot and don't just reflect what happened yesterday.
Tuesday, February 16, 2021 - They've stopped posting weekend dashboards and holidays. Yesterday was Presidents Day so there are three blank days. I've looked at the tables and the numbers appear to be updated or revised, but they don't add up right. That's a normal part of the process, but I'm trying to keep posting the original posted numbers so if someone in the future wants to study how the updated numbers varied from what was originally posted they can do so. So here are the numbers posted today (yesterday's data) and where I'm calculating 'new' numbers I'm comparing to the posted numbers on Friday.
There are a total of 285 resident Alaska deaths. That five more than there were on Friday. (Though the table shows 285 going back a ways. So I assume they reclassified other deaths as COVID deaths. There are five more hospitalizations since Friday. There are 35 people currently hospitalized with COVID or suspected with COVID. That's 2 more than on Friday. And there are 46 available ICU beds statewide.
Friday there were 54,282 total Alaska resident cases. Today's number is 54,736. That's 454 new cases over the holiday weekend. That's an average of about 150 new cases each of the three days. But the state says 59 new cases.
There were about 21,300 tests between Friday and Tuesday. Test Positivity is down to 2.12 which is great. But we want it under 1.
The requirement to be tested before coming to Alaska lapsed because the Alaska House of Representatives still haven't organized and so they couldn't vote on extending the test requirement and the Governor, apparently, won't do it, though, as I understand it, he could. That's is not good.
Friday, February 12, 2021 - It's getting harder to keep this going. There's significantly more light almost two months past solstice and on a bright sunny day like today you can even feel its warmth through the windows. And today marks a week since I got my second vaccination. By next Friday it should be fully working. But if I could have given my place in line to the person at the grocery who brings the bags out to the car I would have. But I couldn't. Trying to decide good ways to use my relative immunity for good.
2 new deaths. 2 new hospitalizations. Up two folks with COVID in the hospital to 35. But four more available ICU beds than yesterday - 46.
148/134 new res cases and 10 more non-res new cases.
7200 tests. Test Positivity down .08 to 2.26.
Thursday, February 11, 2021 - Looks like I missed yesterday here. The impeachment has been distracting. The numbers in the chart got updated anyway.
Today, no new deaths, two new hospitalizations. Down to 33 currently in the hospital with COVID, down to 42 available ICU beds.
143/134 new resident cases. (12 new non-res cases.)
About 9300 tests and Test Positivity is 2.34. Down a bit from yesterday.
Wednesday, February 10, 2021 - No new deaths, one new hospitalization. 183/166 new res cases.
Current COVID patients in the hospital down one from yesterday to 34. 42 available ICU beds.
About 6800 tests. Test Positivity up slightly to 2.53.
Tuesday, February 9, 2021 - State emailed back again with link to summary excel charts which include the weekend data. But those numbers include adjustments to what has been posted day to day. Since I've decided to document the actual posted daily numbers, filling in the weekends from these other numbers doesn' seem right. So I'm just adding there new case numbers.
One new death. Four new hospitalizations. 35 current hospitalizations. 44 available ICU beds.
115/106 new resident cases.
About 5700 tests. Up to 2.57 on Test Positivity.
Monday, February 8, 2021 - Emailed to find out why there hasn't been an update since Friday and got this response quickly:
"Hello,
The DHSS COVID-19 Data Hub will no longer be updated on the weekends or state holidays and case count summaries will not be emailed or posted on social media. The Monday summary will include aggregated numbers for the previous three days.
Hope this information helps.
I'd note that if I had read the new dashboard more carefully I would have seen the notice.
That means that data for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will no longer reflect those days, but an average of the three. While daily numbers are not always accurate and you have to look at the numbers over time, it still is annoying and makes the numbers harder to track.
Monday shows 277 total Alaska resident deaths. Same as Friday. New hospitalizations are also the same. So no new deaths or hospitalizations. There are five fewer current COVID patients hospitalized - 39. But 9 fewer available ICU beds statewide since Friday - 42. Only 12 in Anchorage
The total of resident cases Monday is 451 higher than Friday. That would been average of about 150 for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. But Monday's new cases is listed as 89. My second email to the state to ask about this was answered by stock answer with lots of FAQ's but not to my question.
Between Friday and Monday there were about 18,700 tests. Test Positivity is down to 2.17. That's great.
Sunday, February 7, 2021 - 3:30 pm and the Friday numbers are all that are up, still. My fever is gone, my arm's almost ok, but I do feel lethargic still.
Saturday, February 6, 2021 - It's 3:40pm and there is still no update from the State. We got our second vaccines yesterday. It's true, in our case, the number 2 packs a bigger wallop than number 1. The first was a slightly sore arm for me. This time the arm is somewhat sorer, and I have a slight fever and should have followed J's example and stayed in bed. But nothing terrible. And in two weeks, barring new studies to the contrary, I can start getting out into the world again. Masked, of course.
February 5, 2021- The big news again, today, is the non-resident new cases as the Akutan fish processing operation outbreak numbers come in: 89 new cases. (You have to figure out this number on my chart by subtracting yesterday's non-res cases from today's.)
No new deaths. 4 new hospitalizations. One more actual hospitalized COVID patient statewide reported - total 44. Number of available ICU beds statewide jumped from 33-51 and in Anchorage from 4 to 12. A good sign.
165/163 new resident cases.
About 7300 tests. Test Positivity down slightly from yesterday to 2.45. An NPR piece this morning said actual positivity (adding in those who are positive but not tested) is ten times as high.
Thursday, February 4, 2021 - Drifting in the wrong direction today. No new deaths. That's good, but maybe there were and just haven't been recorded yet as happened earlier this week when there were 17 new deaths.
One new hospitalization. One more statewide hospitalized current COVID patient - 43. Anchorage also has 43. This is the first time that I recall that all the hospitalized COVID were in Anchorage - at least that's what the numbers suggest. Five fewer available ICU beds statewide to 33. Only 4 available in Anchorage.
158/158 new resident cases. 27 new non-resident cases. Again, presumably from the fish processing plant in Akutan with the outbreak.
9300 tests. Test Positivity bounced up a bit to 2.51.
We've had three days with under 100 new resident cases in the last two weeks. But we can't stay down there. ICU beds are getting critically tight in Anchorage. And test positivity, while still under 3.0 is going up and down like a butterfly.
Wednesday, February 3, 2021 - State revised their Dashboard. Now there is one Dashboard with four basic numbers: Vaccine Doses Given (129,941); Current Hospitalizations (40); Total Cases (54,820);Total Deaths (279). To retrieve the data for my chart now requires opening four different webpages. It also includes the vaccination Dashboard which I haven't visited daily because it wasn't part of the old page. So that's five.
There were no new deaths. There was one LESS total hospitalizations and seven fewer hospitalized COVID patients (42). OK, since the state's overview Dashboard says 40, let me explain the 42 I have listed. On the Hospitalizations page if offers two numbers, one for COVID patients and one for suspected COVID patients. I've been combining the two in my chart.
There are fewer available ICU beds statewide - 38, a reduction of 11 from yesterday. In Anchorage there are only 5 available! That's NOT a good number.
181/178 new resident cases. But there were also 45 new non-resident cases, as, I'm assuming, the paperwork for the cases coming in from the fish processors.
About 8500 new tests. Test Positivity down .07 to 2.37, another new low since September 25's 2.31.
That continues to be the most hopeful number lately.
And the Vaccine Dashboard: 98,265people have been vaccinated. 31,675 "Vaccination Series Complete" which I take to mean people who have had both doses. Total doses administered is 129,941, which at first seems odd because the "Total State Allocation" is only 119,100. But below that number you have a choice of allocations for the State (119,100) and for IHS (Indian Health Service) (55,300).
The 60-69 age group is the most vaccinated group - 24,000. 70-79 = 19,200. Then 50-59 = 13,900. There are different stats you can look at including how many people from different categories (Age, Race, Gender, Ethnicity) have completed completed the series.
Tuesday, February 2, 2021 - This was definitely a catch-up day. There were 17 new deaths reported, after several days of zero deaths. I expect soon we'll get the update that says these deaths were found over the last several weeks in death reports. They didn't just all happen one day.
Four new hospitalizations. Again, different numbers from different sources since the actual currently hospitalized with COVID number went up six to 49. And available statewide ICU beds also went up six to 49. ICU beds in Anchorage went up five to 12 - still in the red critical level.
There were 107/111 new resident cases. Noteworthy, there were 17 new non-resident cases. Presumably coming from the fish processing plants/ships that had outbreaks.
About 4100 tests. Test Positivity up .02 to 2.44. Still a decent number.
Depending on how early the marmot (closest Alaskan cousin of the groundhog) got up this morning we may or may not have a long way to the end of winter. (In Anchorage, it's always more than six weeks anyway.)
Monday, February 1, 2021 - No new deaths or hospitalizations reported today. We've had the same numbers for three days now - 260 total deaths and 1,179 hospitalizations. That's suspect and I'm guessing there's some backlog or adjustment of numbers. Or, it could be accurate. It's definitely unusual (for hospitalizaations more than for deaths.)
70/62 new resident cases. Under 100 again is a good sign. Though non-resident new cases (which are on the chart, but not usually mentioned in the notes here) were 38. That's 50% of the total of resident cases. That's unusual too. But there was an outbreak at a fishing processing plant and on a ship.
About 7300 tests. Test Positivity up a fraction to 2.42. Given the number of tests and new cases, I'd say the bump was due to the fact these numbers are a seven day average.
Sunday, January 31, 2021 - Not bad. No new deaths or new hospitalizations posted. But the number of COVID patients went up 3 to 42. (I figure these numbers are collected from different places. They'll catch up to each other.) There are two fewer available ICU beds - only 41 statewide. And in Anchorage we're down to seven! That's not just COVID patients. But it's scary. Any serious injury event and we'd be out of space for the victims.
About 4500 new tests. Test Positivity is down to 2.39. That's probably today's best number. It hasn't been this low since a 2.31 on September 25. It means for every 100 people tested about 2.39 are positive. (No .39 jokes please, it's an average. When you test 5000 people it means 119 test positive. Again, the numbers don't match today's new cases, but TP is figured on a seven day rolling average. If this sounds very convoluted, you aren't wrong, but you probably should have paid more attention in math classes.
I'd note that while the numbers are going down, a total of 260 Alaskans are no longer living due to COVID. The first Alaskan death was reported on March 24, 2020. 1,179 Alaskans have gotten sick enough to require hospitalization. We're the top state in the country in terms of percent of people vaccinated, but we still need to be careful. We will see the new strains of the virus here soon and we don't know how effective the vaccines will be for them. But we are being reassured that we are less likely to die or get seriously ill if we've been vaccinated. But nothing is certain.
Saturday, January 30, 2021 - Most numbers today are better than yesterday's.
No new deaths. One hospitalization. 135/133 new resident cases. (The difference between yesterday's non-resident new cases was 19, but state says there were just 7 new cases. I guess this is bookkeeping corrections due to the outbreak at the fish processing plant in Akutan.)
Number of currently hospitalized COVID patients in Alaska is down to 39 from 48 yesterday. This is the lowest number since I started tracking this stat on November 18 when there were 147 hospitalized. Available ICU beds statewide is down one to 43, but in Anchorage there are only 9 empty ICU beds. (These ICU beds are not just COVID patients.)
Just over 14,000 tests (a pretty high number) and Test Positivity is 2.54, the lowest since September 27!
Friday, January 29, 2021 - After dipping below 100 new resident cases for two days, we're in the high end of the one hundreds for the third day in a row.
185/176 new resident cases. No new deaths, only one new hospitalization. But that conflicts with an increase in the number of COVID patients currently in the hospital - 48, six more than yesterday. And two fewer ICU beds available - 44, and only 12 in Anchorage. But remember, daily numbers are squirrely because the day stats are posted isn't necessarily the day something happened. Every now and then the state catches up on old stats that hadn't been posted.
Almost 10,000 tests. Test Positivity down a bit too 2.72 - the best news of the day.
With Anchorage loosening the restrictions right now, I'm concerned that we might start heading back up in cases. But if people are good about their masks and distancing, maybe we'll be ok. But then the more contagious British and South African and Brazilian strains are likely to make their appearances soon too. No rest for the weary.
Thursday, January 28, 2021 - The trend on new cases is going in the wrong direction. The trend in hospitalizations reflects last weeks lower case counts. But if new cases continues up, so will hospitalizations.
199/178 new cases. One new death. One new hospitalizations. Current number of hospitalized COVID patients is 42, down one. Available ICU beds statewide is up two to 46. But Anchorage is still in the alert stage with only 17 ICU beds available.
8400 tests and Test Positivity matches yesterday's 2.87.
Wednesday, January 27, 2021 - One step back today.
One new death. Six new hospitalizations. But the bright spot of today's numbers is the current COVID hospitalizations number is down to 43 - the lowest since I started tracking this number in November. But available ICU beds also went down statewide by eight, to 44. And down to 11 in Anchorage - back into the alert level.
173/179 new resident cases. So after two days below 100, we've doubled yesterday's number.
About 7300 tests and, another bright spot, our Test Positivity is down to 2.87 somewhat lower than Wednesday's 2.93 and the lowest since September 30, 2020.
Tuesday, January 26, 2021 - Some good, some bad, nothing alarming. One new death. Nine new hospitalizations. Current COVID patients in the hospital is up three. Available ICU units are up 2 to 52 statewide and remain the same in Anchorage at 17.
85/86 new resident cases. That's two days below 100 in a row. Yes!
About 3100 hundred tests. Test Positivity up again to 3.07 after dropping below 3.0 yesterday.
We've got the highest percent of people vaccinated in the US. Let's keep lowering the cases and deaths and increasing the vaccinations.
Monday, January 25, 2021 - A day for cheering. 82/83 new resident cases. Our new case count was under 100 for the first time since September 23, 2020 when it was 55.
No new deaths or new hospitalizations. Current COVID patients hospitalized down by three to 48. Available ICU beds statewide up eleven to 50. In Anchorage up one to 17. I'd note ICU bed usage numbers are for all reasons, not just COVID.
Only about 2600 tests, but still Test Positivity is 2.93, first time below 3 since September 30 when it was 2.87. All this is very encouraging. But remember 200 Alaskans have died of COVID since September 30.
Sunday, January 24, 2021 - The numbers, for the most part today, look good.
No new deaths. (Though our total now is 257 people who were alive last year at this time are gone directly due to COVID.)
One new hospitalization. And the statewide current hospitalization for COVID went from 50 yesterday to 51 today. It's nice when the numbers in different columns add up right. This and the statewide ICU bed availability number (39) are the main ones that went in the wrong direction. Anchorage ICU bed availability stayed steady at 16.
We dipped back below 200 again for new resident cases - 165/166. It's nice to see my number and the state number so close.
About 6900 tests. Test Positivity is down to 3.05! That's a drop of .22. We got over 3.0 (3.38) for the first time on October 1, 2020. How long ago was that? More than a month before the election!
Before that all the numbers were under 3.0 for quite a while. September 30 was 2.87. September 14 it was under 2.0. You can look at the table and see how there were twos and ones with some threes back to July 7 when I started tracking Test Positivity.
Let's keep it down!
Saturday, January 23, 2021 - Five new deaths. No new hospitalizations reported, however there are five more people hospitalized with COVID today than yesterday. So something's not right. There are also seven fewer available ICU beds (41) statewide, and two fewer in Anchorage to 16.
About 7400 tests. Test Positivity is down to 3.27, the lowest since September 30. That's good, but I suspect it's because a higher number got knocked off the seven day average.
241/241 new cases reported. That's lower than yesterday, but higher than the four days before that.
We're not there yet. Keep hunkering down, masking up, and finding natural beauty to enjoy. The vaccine means the end is in sight, faster if we keep the spread to a minimum until we all get vaccinated.
Friday, January 22, 2021 - 263/262 new resident cases. That's more than double the number (125/125) Tuesday, which was the lowest number in 3.5 months. I mention this just to illustrate that while the long term trend since November is down, it's bumpy. Here's a chart from the state dashboard (near the bottom.) Remember, these charts are updated daily. So if you go there tomorrow it will be slightly different. You can see we had a big drop in December and a more gradual and bumpy decline since then. It estimates it will take 100 days to halve the number of new cases. That's a little depressing.
A bit under 8000 tests. Test Positivity down .08 to 3.45, just slightly higher than Monday's 3.41 which was also a three and a half month low.
Maybe without a constant presidential questioning of masks, it will be less of an emotional burden for some people to wear one.
Thursday, January 21, 2021 - A bump back up on our (I hope) way down. Yesterday's death count was a recording blip. All but one were catching up with old death stats.
Today, one death and seven new hospitalizations. One more COVID patients hospitalized - 52. Ten fewer ICU beds available statewide and six fewer in Anchorage. Back in the alert level at 12 beds.
209/202 new resident cases.
Almost 11,000 tests. Test Positivity is 3.53.
LA Times columnist had a headline yesterday: "I got a vaccination appointment, but it was in Anchorage." State says we have the highest percentage of population vaccinated in the country.
Wednesday, January 20, 2021 - 22 deaths reported today. We've only had 0-3 deaths over the last couple of weeks. Twenty-two is the highest single day count as I scroll up the table above. But the other numbers look reasonable, so I'm going to guess that they've suddenly added a number of deaths that for whatever reason hadn't been recorded.
[Updated 11pm: a different State report confirms my assumption about deaths today being catchup of previous deaths:
"One death was recent:
- A female North Pole resident in her 70s
23 deaths were from death certificate reviews over the past several months"
5 new hospitalizations. Down 4 hospitalizations from yesterday to 51. If the 22 deaths were all from yesterday, that number should be lower, since only 5 people are reported to have been hospitalized. Down two to 50 available ICU beds, but up one to 18 in Anchorage.
5600 tests. Test Positivity is up .20 to 3.77. Still pretty low.
The vaccination dashboard says 59,392 people have been vaccinated in Alaska, 13,270 completed their vaccinations.
Tuesday, January 19, 2021 - Mixed numbers, but not really getting worse.
One death. Nine new hospitalizations. I suspect we're seeing delayed counts from the holiday weekend in here. Current COVID patients hospitalized in Alaska is up three to 55. Available ICU beds are down one to 52. But Anchorage available ICU beds are up one to 17 and out of the alert area. (Less than 25% of all ICU beds)
125/125 new resident cases. That's the lowest since October 1, 2020 when there were 124/127 new cases when we were starting that fall surge. As I said yesterday, I'm looking forward to having fewer than 100 cases as the next big milestone.
Only 3800 tests and the Test Positivity was up .16 to a still decent 3.57.
Monday, January 18, 2021 - All the numbers moved in the right direction.
No new deaths. No new hospitalizations. Hospitalized COVID patients down 12 to 52 statewide. ICU beds available up three to 53 statewide. And in Anchorage up one to 16 - still in the alert level.
6,004 tests and the Test Positivity is at its lowest level since October 2, 2020 - 3.41.
Way to go Alaskans. Lets keep this up. I'm waiting for the day we have fewer than 100 new cases.
Sunday, January 17, 2021 - Another positive set of numbers.
No new deaths. Only one new hospitalizations, however current hospitalizations went up by three to 64. Statewide ICU bed availability went up six to 50. But Anchorage ICU bed availability went down one to 14.
279/265 new resident cases. That's 100 more than yesterday, but still under 300.
6100 tests and Test Positivity is down .01 to 3.52.
I posted about getting the vaccine, with pictures, yesterday for anyone interested.
Saturday, January 16, 2021 - Most of the new numbers changed in the right way.
No new deaths. No new hospitalizations. Current hospitalizations dropped from 71 to 61. The lowest number since I started tracking total hospitalizations on November 18. The only stat that moved the wrong way was statewide available ICU beds - down three to 47. Anchorage ICU beds went up from 11 to 15.
New resident cases is below 200 - 178/190.
About 9400 tests. Test Positivity is down to 3.53 from 3.68.
Let's hope we're still under 200 again tomorrow.
Friday, January 15, 2021 - We've gone down from a few weeks ago, and have days when we're below 200 even, but then we bounce back up.
300/296 new resident cases. (The non-resident cases are in the table above - today there were 9 more.)
One new death. Three new hospitalizations. Statewide COVID patients in the hospital is 71, down four. Available ICU beds is up seven to 47. Anchorage available ICU beds is still in the alert area at eleven, up two from yesterday.
Just under 7000 new tests. Test Positivity at 3.68. I'd note that's the same as yesterday. But these numbers are a seven day average so on today's chart, yesterday's number is now 3.72.
Another quirk of the Dashboard: When it first opens, it's a bit like a slot machine. The deaths number stops. Then a few seconds later it tends to drop one or more numbers to the final number. There have been a few times where I wrote down that first number and when I went back it was a different number. Now I know to wait until it's settled.
Thursday, January 14, 2021 - I'm guessing we're seeing the results of the Christmas holiday in the hospital and death numbers, and the New Years in the new case numbers. There's always a lag.
332/333 new resident cases. If you look at the table above, you'll see these numbers jump around a lot. But we did have a couple of days under 200 and now we're back up to the 300s.
2 new deaths. 11 new hospitalizations. Yesterday there were 66 COVID patients hospitalized and today there are 75. Yesterday there were 45 available ICU beds in Alaska, today there are 40. In Anchorage the number hasn't changed, but it's at alert level - 9.
About 11,400 tests. Test Positivity dropped below 4.0 for the first time since October 4 to 3.68 and the lowest it's been since October 2 when it was 3.38. That's a great sign. Again, it means 3-4 people out of 100 test positive. Our high was 9.96 on November 12. The CDC target is below 5. Only Vermont (2.5) has a lower seven day average than Alaska (3.1) in Johns Hopkins chart of Test Positivity by State Comparison chart. Hawaii is 3.2. Idaho is the highest at 45. But remember, these numbers are affected by how many people actually get tested. So if only sick people get tested, the percent will be higher. If people in high risk jobs are tested regularly, even if they aren't sick, the number will be lower.
Wednesday, January 13, 2021 - I'm considering the numbers today to reflect two days worth of numbers. The Anchorage Daily News (ADN) did post numbers for yesterday - one death and 159 new cases. So, the increases I'm showing are from Monday, not Tuesday.
2 new deaths, 32 new hospitalizations. (This is a troubling increase even if divided into two days of 16) Down to 66 current hospitalizations, the lowest number since I've began tracking hospitalizations on November 18. Up eight available ICU beds statewide to 77, though Anchorage ICU bed availability is only 9, in the alert zone.
402/288 new resident cases. (Again, this is for two days.)
About 13,000 tests. Test Positivity down to 4.06, a reassuring trend.
Tuesday, January 12, 2021 - It's 4:30pm and there are still no new numbers posted at the State Dashboard.
Monday, January 11, 2021 - 173/183 new resident cases. We're below 200 again the first time since January 5 when we were 196/203. This is the lowest new resident case number since December 28 when we had 126/124. We're going in the right direction.
No new deaths. Three new hospitalizations. We're down three to 77 current COVID patients in the hospital statewide and we gained 11 available ICU beds. We gained two ICU beds in Anchorage but the total - 14 - is still in the red alert level.
About 5,300 tests. Positivity up .06 to 4.55.
Things are improving. Keep wearing those masks.
Sunday, January 10, 2021 - 250/251 new resident cases. That's the lowest since last Tuesday.
No new deaths.
1 new hospitalization. Total current hospitalizations down 4 to 80 statewide. But available ICU beds is down too, 10, to 39. (Got to keep in mind, for most of these numbers going down is good, but not for available ICU beds.) Anchorage has 12 available ICU beds. No change. Well the number is the same, we don't know if the same people are using the other ICU beds or not.
About 6900 tests. Test Positivity is down .17 to 4.49. Another good sign. The fact that new cases is down the last three days and below 300 today suggests that any New Year surge wasn't bad. I think most people realize this is serious. And that with people starting to get vaccines, maybe people think, "I can hold out another month or two until I get vaccinated." The State vaccine dashboard (which doesn't have a date on it, but says "reported Monday, Wednesday, Friday by noon" and warns of a lag in reporting) says 25,058 first doses have been given. That's roughly 3% of the state's population. And less than 25% of the total 114,800 doses allocated. So we still have a long way to go, but I have to believe that once they get a rhythm going, they'll be able to shoot people up a lot faster. Assuming the vaccine supply keeps up.
Saturday, January 9, 2021 - 311/370 new resident cases. (Earlier this week my numbers were much higher than the State's. Now it seems they are catching up.)
One new death. Five new hospitalizations. 84 currently hospitalized with COVID. The same as yesterday. Seven more ICU beds (49) available statewide. Three more (12) available in Anchorage.
About 7800 tests. Test positivity down a tiny fraction to 4.66. Under 5% is good. Lower is better.
Hearing from friends who have gotten their first vaccine dose Thursday and Friday at the Anchorage School District office, where, apparently, school nurses are giving the shots. Thanks ASD!! J and I have appointments there Monday and Tuesday. Just thinking about having some sort of immunity in a five weeks (we're getting Moderna vaccine) has made me realize that despite my apparent adjustment to isolation, I'm really looking forward to getting out in the world again. I hope the vaccines become available to everyone soon.
Friday, January 8, 2021 - I's 1:25pm and no numbers are up yet for today. Maybe they're so busy with vaccine work that they're behind on the numbers.
3:15 - the numbers just went up. No new deaths. Ten new hospitalizations. Total hospitalizations went down by three to 84. But available ICU beds statewide also went down - by eight, to 42. Available ICU beds in Anchorage are down to just nine.
403/403 new resident cases. First time in a while that my number and the State's is the same. Unfortunately it's back up over 400.
About 11,200 tests, but Test Positivity is up slightly to 4.68. Still, it's under 5 which is good.
Getting a vaccine appointment has been a little like looking for low airfare tickets. Or maybe like playing bingo. You go on the site, put in details (I limited it to within 10 miles of my zip code). Then you get a list of places, each with about a paragraph of info. The key is number of appointments. Most of them say "0." Then an hour later you try again. I finally hit the jackpot at about 6pm last night. There were about 259 slots at the Anchorage School District. But once I got mine and went to get one for my wife they were down to zero. But she tried at 7am this morning and they had them for Monday. (Mine is for Tuesday) But then the form wouldn't accept her email address (format not correct). So we switched to my laptop and got her an appointment.
Thursday, January 7, 2021 - Still in the 300s in new resident case numbers. 326/334. For those who don't look at the chart - our total cases is now 47,660. If tomorrow is the same number of new resident cases as today, we'll hit 48,000.
3 new deaths.
10 new hospitalizations. But we dropped from 93 currently hospitalized yesterday to 87. And ICU bed availability statewide went up from 40 to 50. In Anchorage from seven to 13.
About 5500 tests. Test positivity slipped down further to 4.59. So basically, numbers have positive and negative aspects.
I managed to negotiate the vaccine signup site yesterday, sort of. Both my wife and I are old enough to be the next priority group. Both signed up. Not for appointments - couldn't find any available - but for a waiting list. But, J got an email confirming her status. I didn't get such an email. And the online confirmation was a pop-up that vanished before I could get a screenshot.
Wednesday, January 6, 2021 - 328/342 new resident cases. 2 new deaths. 18 new hospitalizations.
93 currently hospitalized with COVID or symptoms. Up 8 from yesterday. Available ICU beds down 5 to 40 statewide. In Anchorage, down to 7 ICU beds available.
About 8200 tests. Test Positivity went down below 5, to 4.99.
The State website now says people over 65 are eligible to sign up for COVID vaccine appointment. I just tried. 8 locations showed up when I put in my address. But you can't call the location, you have to go through the State site. But when I put in my zip code only one location showed up, But it had no appointments available. Trying to get other locations to show up via the State website isn't getting any results. [UPDATED 2 pm: It's a little tricky. The locations show up below the screen, so you have to scroll down. Then you need to fill in all the insurance paperwork and other intake info. Not complaining; it's better than doing all that when you get your shot. They also want photos of your insurance cards. There were no appointments available at the nearby clinic, but we're now on the waiting list.]
Tuesday, January 5, 2021 - Better numbers, slightly. 196/203 new resident cases.
No new deaths (we're at 217)
23 new hospitalizations. That's that troubling number. The highest since we had 24 new cases on December 1. Is this an anomaly or the beginning of the post holiday spike? Only time will tell.
There were 160 people hospitalized on Dec. 1. There are only 85 today, down for from yesterday.
But there's also one less available ICU bed - only 45 in the state. In Anchorage there are only 10! Down 5 from yesterday.
About 5400 tests. Test positivity just barely down from 5.19 to 5.16. Stay healthy. Vaccine appointments for people over 65 can be made starting tomorrow.
Monday, January 4, 2021 - Continued mixed signals. We're probably doing better than lots of states, but we're not out of the woods.
3 new deaths. No new hospitalizations. But even though there were no new hospitalizations, there are 10 more people hospitalized in Alaska than yesterday - 89. That's the highest number since Dec. 23 when there were 99. Before that the numbers are above 100 for several weeks. I only started recording those numbers on Nov. 18 when there were 147 COVID patients hospitalized.
There are fewer available ICU beds statewide - 46. And Anchorage is down 4 from yesterday to 15.
About 3600 tests. Test Positivity up a teensy bit to 5.19.
Link for Alaska Department of Health and Human Services Newsletters and Updates.
Sunday, January 3, 2021 - New resident case numbers continue to be significantly different - 290/232. Just assuming the state is updating and making corrections as new data arrives seems a bit of a stretch. But I'll just continue subtracting yesterday's total cases from today's to report new cases.
No new deaths.
Three new hospitalizations. Ten more people are listed as hospitalized - 79. There are 13 more available ICU beds statewide (53) and 19 available ICU beds in Anchorage, up 9 from yesterday.
About 2500 tests. Test positivity down slightly from yesterday to 5.14.
It seems there's some confusion about signing up for vaccinations according to today's Anchorage Daily News. It seems the extreme cold required to store the vaccine makes scheduling more difficult that other vaccines. But the online sign up shouldn't give people appointments if they don't check off the proper boxes. The next question then is if people are lying about their status or just confused. Or the online form simply asks "are you eligible?" I'll have to check and tell you tomorrow.
Saturday, January 2, 2021 - 801/298 new resident cases. Since no numbers were posted yesterday, I'm assuming that my numbers reflect two days (State didn't post numbers yesterday) and the State's number reflects just one day.
9 new deaths.
7 new hospitalizations. Total current hospitalizations are down eight to 69. But available ICU beds are also down eight to 40. In Anchorage we're down to 10 ICU beds. That means more people left the hospital than went in, but there are more sicker patients in the hospital. Also there were nine people who left the hospital because they died.
There were about 14,500 tests. Test positivity went above 5.0 again (5.22) for the first time in 12 days. The WHO target is under 5 for 14 days.
Again, remember, the State didn't put up numbers yesterday so I'm looking back two days. There used to be an easy way to specify the date for past Dashboards, but I can't seem to make that work now. So I don't know if they also posted an entry for yesterday eventually or not.
I had to make one of my extremely rare indoor visits to a retail establishment today - Central Plumbing and Heating. They have a glass/plexiglass? barrier at the counter and all the staff had masks. But the other two customers did not wear masks. They did stand at least six feet away.
The First Day of 2021 - January 1, 2021 - The State is not updating its site today. See you tomorrow.
Last Day of 2020 - Thursday, December 31 - My number for new resident cases and the State's number are so far off today that I need to remind people how I get my number. Basically it's
today's # - yesterday's # = new resident cases
495/367 new resident cases. I'm guessing Christmas (and pre holiday travel maybe) are starting to show up. But it's just a guess. Maybe there was a spreader event or two I haven't heard about.
3 new deaths
6 new hospitalizations. Up 4 to 77 COVID patients currently hospitalized. Up 8 to 48 available ICU beds statewide and up 4 to 18 ICU beds in Anchorage.
About 8700 tests. Test positivity keeps inching up this week. It's 4.92 and at this rate tomorrow it will be above 5.
Wednesday, December 30 - The mayor is loosening the lock down starting January 1. The numbers have improved, but they haven't yet reflected the Christmas holiday. It's not a week yet since Christmas, but today's numbers are going in the wrong direction.
2 new deaths.
13 new hospitalizations. Down 8 (to 73) in COVID patients currently hospitalized, but also down 7 (to 40) available ICU beds. In Anchorage we're down to 14 available ICU beds. That's four less than yesterday.
385/368 new resident cases. (Yesterday the state had a lot more than I did so I guess today we're balancing out that difference a little.) This is the highest count since Tuesday, December 22 when we had 438/426 new resident cases. The impact of Christmas should be showing up this weekend and early next week.
Tuesday, December 29 - The numbers are better this week, but not completely. We seem to be having a bumpy landing - we're going down in general, but with bumps back up then down. We've had fewer than 300 new resident cases for six days in a row, even getting into the low 100s yesterday. But we're up again today at 174/210. (Not sure why the State reports so many more cases than my simple subtraction of yesterday's total from today's is much lower.)
One new death after 3 days without a death.
10 new hospitalizations equal the total for the last four days. But before that we had 21.
We are inching back up in number of people hospitalized - 81. But we were in the 90s-low 100s a week ago. We are down to 47 available ICU beds from 53 yesterday. But we were at 46 three days ago. Anchorage dropped to 18 available ICU beds from 24 yesterday.
There were about 5500 tests and Test Positivity is up slightly to 4.56 up slightly once again. Compared to the US national average (10.5) we're doing well. (South Dakota is a 37%!)
"The WHO [World Health Organization] has said that in countries that have conducted extensive testing for COVID-19, should remain at 5% or lower for at least 14 days."
We are doing extensive testing. I'm not sure what "5%" means exactly. 5.0? If so, we been there for nine consecutive days. Below 6%? We've been there for 11 days.
Monday, December 28 - The trends continue positive.
No new deaths. (We're at 199 resident deaths total though.)
Two new hospitalizations (974 total have been hospitalized.) 76 are currently in the hospital with COVID. That's up seven from yesterday. Available ICU beds are down one to 53 statewide. Anchorage now has 24 available ICU beds.
126/124 new resident cases. That's the lowest number since October 7. If Christmas hadn't just occurred and New Years wasn't about to, I'd be thinking we could get under 100 new cases soon. But maybe the low number was because people didn't get tested Christmas weekend.
There were only 4200 tests (a fairly low number) and test positivity is down slightly to 4.44.
Sunday, December 27 - Good signs and not so good ones. Zero deaths. Only one new hospitalization. Down to 69 hospitalized COVID patients, down from 164 and 163 on Dec 7 and 9 and has high as 134 on Dec 19. That's a big drop and important because it slides our hospitals away from being overcrowded. Statewide available ICU beds is up to 54 from a low of 24 on December 3 and 27 on December 19. Anchorage available ICU beds is up to 21 after being as low as 4 on December 19. Deaths and hospitalizations occur one to three weeks after infection. So after the Thanksgiving bump, the restrictions seem to have done their job. Emphasis on 'seem' cause we don't know for sure.
However, new cases edged back up to 290/308. This is still lower than we've been in recent weeks, but higher than the two days when we were down below 200 new resident cases a day.
There were 5200 tests and Test Positivity inched up to 4.5. Still much better than it's been. We'll see whether people were naughty or nice over Christmas as any impact should show up by Friday or Saturday.
I'd note the Vaccination Dashboard I mentioned Friday December 24 has the same numbers today that it had then. 8,513 people had been vaccinated then. Presumably there should be more now.
Saturday, December 26 - The numbers are staying reasonably low, presumably a result of the closing on indoor eating and drinking, but that's only speculation.
No new deaths.
4 new hospitalizations. But the number of hospitalized COVID patients is down (from 93) to 77 and ICU bed availability statewide is up to 46 from 34. Anchorage ICU bed count is up one to 11.
About 17,300 tests (but this is probably two days worth of tests since they weren't reported yesterday)
Test Positivity went down to 4.33, the lowest since October 20. Let's hope people weren't spreading the virus yesterday at Christmas gatherings and that the numbers continue to go down.
Friday, December 25 - I was partly wrong. While COVID-19 doesn't observe Christmas, the Alaska Department of Health and Social Services does and the dashboard says there will be no post today.
Friday UPDATE: Although the Dashboard wasn't updated, an email from the DHSS provided some of the numbers I track:
1 new death. 3 new hospitalizations. 150/152 new resident cases. Other numbers weren't available. Below 200 new cases is good. Let's hope the latest restrictions in Anchorage are helping lower the new cases and this decline continues.
Thursday, December 24 - A reminder: COVID-19 doesn't observe Christmas.
2 more deaths for a total of 15 in the last three days.
21 more hospitalizations. More have recovered because people hospitalized went down by six to 93. BUT available ICU beds also went down - to 34 statewide. But Anchorage gained 2 ICU beds, but is still in the alert zone with a total of only 10 ICU beds. I'd note, that's for any patient - car crash victims, heart attacks, etc.
5700 tests. Test Positivity, which has been below five for the last four days, inched back up to 5 exactly.
New resident cases are down to 268/270. That's three days in a row. Can we drop below 200 tomorrow? When will we get below 100?
There's a new Dashboard up for vaccinations. So far Alaska's been allocated 61,900 doses - 35,100 Pfizer and 26,800 Moderna. 8,513 people have received the first dose. I'm looking forward to that number increasing rapidly.
Wednesday, December 23 - Mixed today. 3 deaths is better than yesterday's ten, but still not good. Same with hospitalizations - 13 is better than yesterday's 21, but . .
360/355 new resident cases is better than yesterday's 438, but. . .
About 6800 tests. Test Positivity still in the 4s, but inching up to 4.91.
Good news is that we're under 100 (99 to be exact) folks hospitalized in Alaska with COVID. But there are also 5 fewer ICU beds (36) than yesterday. And Anchorage is down to 8 ICU beds available.
Is Christmas going to blow things up all over again? Let's hope not. But emotion tends to win out over rationality so I'm not holding my breath.
Tuesday, December 22 - The decline has (a temporary, I hope) hiccup.
10 new deaths. 21 new hospitalizations. 438/426 new resident cases.
14,700 tests. Test Positivity up slightly to 4.66.
Hospitalizations of COVID patients down 2 from yesterday to 109. ICU beds available up 2 statewide to 41. But in Anchorage we're down 3 ICU beds to 11.
Just shows we can't ease up until we've really got this under control.
Monday, December 21 - Numbers continue moving in the right direction. No new deaths. Just two new hospitalizations. 150/150 new resident cases. About 4400 tests. And for the sixth day in a row the Test Positivity number has declined - from 6.52 to 4.47. Considering that's a rolling seven day average, the drop is a lot.
The number of COVID patients hospitalized is down to 111. The number of ICU beds in Alaska is up one (to 39) and in Anchorage up three to 14 - out of the alert stage (which is <25%).
This is a remarkable shift assuming that the numbers reflect what's really happening. That's only a caveat, but I have no reason to think the numbers are way off.
Sunday, December 20 - Today it looks like we really are going in the right direction!
No deaths or hospitalizations. Most significant, it's the first time since October 15 (two full months) that the new resident case count is under 200 - 178/180. Just two weeks ago (Dec 5) we had 922/908 new cases in one day.
There were only 3400 tests but even so the Test Positivity is down below 5 (4.73) for the first time since October 21. And these declines have been happening for a week or so. All good news.
Plus we're down (from yesterday's 134) to 115 hospitalized COVID patients and ICU bed availability is up 11 to 38 statewide. And while available Anchorage ICU beds are still on alert status at 11, that's still higher than the last few days.
So all the numbers are better than they were. Let's keep this up.
Saturday, December 19 - Maybe it's true. The curve is going down. Five of the last seven days saw new cases under 500. Three were under 400. One under 300. That's very different from what we've been seeing the last month or so.
One new death Seven new hospitalizations. 330/333 new resident cases. 8200 tests. Test Positivity is down to 5.24.
BUT 134 people are in the hospital with COVID and we're down to 27 ICU beds statewide. 4 in Anchorage.
Let's hope that as deniers learn of friends and family with serious COVID problems, that they start to get the enormity of the situation and start to understand why masks and isolating matter. Some people can learn through logic and facts, others need to personally experience something to get it.
Friday, December 18 - No new deaths. Seven new hospitalizations. 130 COVID patients currently in the hospital. Down to 31 available ICU beds statewide. Up one, to four available, in Anchorage.
487/485 new resident cases. That's 100 more than yesterday, But 184 less than Wednesday.
9200 tests. Test Positivity went down (that's good) to 5.9.
Thursday, December 17 - Anchorage has only 2 available ICU beds!!!!!! Statewide availability is 35 ICU beds. The number of hospitalized COVID patients is down 10 to 128.
2 new deaths. Those aren't just digits - they are human beings with spouses, parents maybe, children, friends. People who weren't expecting to die in 2020. And there are 180 more of such people in Alaska.
377/360 new resident cases. Maybe we're starting to trend down. We've been going up and down the last week:
- Dec 11 622/613
- Dec 12 517/527
- Dec 13 627/640
- Dec 14 422/420
- Dec 15 278/277
- Dec 16 603/604
- Today 377/360
Wednesday, December 16 - 603/604 new resident cases. (Yesterday's number was way too low to continue.)
One new death. 12 new hospitalizations.
138 currently hospitalized. 31 ICU units available statewide. Only 3 left in Anchorage.
About 8300 tests. Test Positivity slipping back up - 6.52 today.
Tuesday, December 15 - Number of new resident cases dropped radically, but Test Positivity went up (6.14). So I'm scratching my head whether the number of new cases is accurate. It's 278/277 which a huge drop. We haven't been in the 200s since October 23. We haven't been in the 300s since November 5. We've mostly been in the 500's and up lately.
And despite the drop in new cases, there were four new deaths and 19 new hospitalizations.
There are reported to be 132 people hospitalized now with COVID and 38 ICU beds available in the state. BUT only 3 available in Anchorage. That's severe. The lowest ever.
So, either the more stricter rules are having an effect on the spread of COVID (so the new cases are down) and the deaths and hospitalization number reflect the outcome of earlier weeks OR the new case numbers aren't accurate.
On the positive side - people started getting vaccinated yesterday. Yeah!
Monday, December 14 - Even better today. 422/420 new resident cases is the lowest we've had since November 5 when there were 308 cases. We haven't been in the 400s since November 23.
No new deaths and only three hospitalizations. 132 COVID patients are hospitalized now. And there are 36 ICU beds available statewide. I updated yesterday's comments when I saw a tweet that showed only 4 ICU beds available. It turns out that was for Anchorage. I hadn't been looking at local numbers. Four for Anchorage is dangerously low. Today it is five for Anchorage. Not much better.
Only about 3500 tests reported, but the Test Positivity continued downward to 5.33. Maybe restrictions are working. But it takes more than two days to have a trend.
Sunday, December 13 - Things look better today. But let's remember the numbers are squishy. I posted an update to yesterday's 18 reported deaths. Dr. Zink tweeted that 13 of those were based on tracking older death certificates and they only got added to the list as a group on one day. Making that day's numbers look dire.
No new deaths reported today. 3 new hospitalizations.
637/640 new resident cases reported. Yesterday's dip into the 500s is over.
But, there were 9600 tests and the Test Positivity (5.61) dropped below 6 for the first time since Oct. 26 and to its lowest level since October 23 when it was 5.25. But again, remember numbers are squishy. Test Positivity is percent of people testing positive. It's reported on a moving seven day average. So each day's number can change with the oldest date is replace with the newest date number. What I'm reporting on the chart above is only the number on the actual day it was reported.
Hospitalized COVID patients is down seven to 131 and available ICU beds is up four to 36.
[UPDATED later: A tweet showed just 4 ICU beds. It turns out that Anchorage has only 4 ICU beds available. Statewide there are 36. In the largest city in Alaska with the most cases, 4 beds is cutting it very close.]
Let's see if the Test Positivity can stay in the 5's a while and start trending down. That would be a big deal. They've been in the 6's and 7's a while and before were in the 8's and a few 9's.
Saturday, December 12 - GRIM. There were 18 deaths reported today. The highest single day number was 13. When the State's Dashboard opens, some of the numbers show up higher than the are for a few seconds, then they settle in to the actual number. I was waiting for that to happen today because the number was so high. But it didn't.
[UPDATED Dec 13, 1am - Alaska Medical Director tweeted today:
"13 from death certificate reviews over the past several months: an Anchorage resident in her 90s, 3 Anchorage residents in their 80s, 2 Anchorage residents in their 70s, 2 Anchorage resident in their 50s, a Bethel Census Area resident in her 80s,"
So there were really only five new deaths today, these 13 came from reviewing older death certificates. Things like this make it hard to interpret the data.]
There were 9900 tests. Test Positivity dropped further to 6.01.
14 new hospitalizations. COVID patients currently in the hospital is unchanged from yesterday - 38. But then 18 people died and freed up beds.
ICU beds available slipped down into the ALERT level (less than 25% of total ICU beds) to 32.
There's an LA Times article today about why tracking ICU bed availability is important. Here are just a few sentences from that article.
"What happens when an ICU reaches 0% capacity?
Hospitals will probably place patients in open beds elsewhere in the hospital, such as emergency department rooms.
Having open beds in other parts of the hospital does not mean a hospital is equipped to handle more intensive care patients. Dr. Bill Stringer, chief pulmonologist at Harbor-UCLA Medical Center in Torrance, said the “limiting step is not going to be space or equipment. It’s going to be staff.”
Because of their specialized training in high-intensity situations, ICU medical professionals are scarce resources.
“The problem is, we’ve got a nationwide shortage of critical care nurses,” Coyle said. “It is not the case where you can pull any nurse into the ICU to provide that level of care.”
And when ICUs are stretched beyond capacity, the quality of care can decline and mortality rates can rise."
Friday, December 11 - It's a problem when I find myself saying "only" three new deaths, "only" 8 new hospitalizations.
622/613 new resident cases.
10,200 tests. Test Positivity dipped again slightly to 6.5. That's better than going up.
There are fewer hospitalized COVID patients (138 compared to yesterday's 156). This is the lowest number since November 22. AND ICU bed availability is up seven to 37. That's not a lot, but it's an improvement. We just have to start pushing the new cases lower and lower.
Thursday, December 10 - Five new deaths. 13 new hospitalizations. 692/610 new resident cases. (A significant differences between my number and the State's today, but in either case, higher numbers than yesterday.)
About 13,800 tests. Test Positivity up a bit to 6.73.
A slight decrease in number of COVID patients hospitalized - 156. Also, one fewer ICU beds available. Down to 30.
Anchorage Daily News reports the UAA Alaska Center which has been leased to the State since March, will begin seeing patients.
Wednesday, December 9 - Four new deaths. 20 new hospitalizations. 584/573 new resident cases. We aren't going in the right direction.
10,600 tests. Test positivity = 6.63, down from 6.8 yesterday.
163 current hospitalizations is one shy of the high of 164 which we hit twice since Saturday. ICU bed availability is back into the critical red zone - 31. We were down to 30 last Saturday. That was the lowest number. The State doesn't post numbers of health care workers so we don't know how stressed that is. It would be hard to track, though we could track health care workers tested positive for COVID and if any died or were hospitalized. It's harder to measure how stressed they are and whether that is causing mistakes or other problems.
Tuesday, December 8 - Some better and some worse numbers today. No new deaths, but 21 new hospitalizations. 562/564 new resident cases is higher than yesterday, but lower than the previous five days.
There were 6800 tests and Test Positivity is 6.65. Generally this number has been lower the last week or so than mid-November.
157 people are in the hospital with COVID, a fairly high number, but seven less than yesterday. And we have ten fewer ICU beds available (35) than yesterday.
Let's hope the tighter restrictions in Anchorage will start to lower our numbers. The first batch of vaccine is due in the state next week, and if it's approved, people will start getting vaccinated before Solstice. And as the days start getting longer, we may start pulling out of our COVID winter as well.
Monday, December 7 - A lot fewer new cases today, but a really big difference between my number (today's posted number - yesterday's posted numbers) and the State's number: 476/557.
3 new deaths. 6 new hospitalizations.
About 4,400 new tests. Test positivity reported at 6.5. Down slightly from yesterday.
164 people hospitalized with COVID, equaling our highest number two days ago. The number of available ICU beds went up by 13 to 45.
It's Pearl Harbor Day. 2,403 people died from the attack that day. An average of 2191 people have died each day in the United States for the last week.
Sunday, December 6 - Last two days the State Dashboard has been up earlier than normal. Today it says 10:05am. But how good are the numbers?
Zero deaths and zero hospitalizations. Over the last two weeks daily hospitalizations have totaled 178. That's an average of 12.7 per day, with a range from 0 to 32 on any single day. So when there are zero hospitalizations at this point, I suspect it's a lag in reporting/updating.
So let's not get too hung up on daily reports. It's the weekly and monthly trends that matter. So you can scroll up on the table above to see how drastically things have changed in the last month.
There were 757/750 new resident cases reported. About 10,500 tests. Test positivity dipped slightly to 6.91, meaning seven people for every hundred tested was positive. And with 10,500 tests and 757 positives that just about right. (Remember Test Positivity is a seven day rolling average.)
There are two fewer hospitalized COVID (151) and suspected (11) patients currently hospitalized (well reported hospitalized) than yesterday. And two more available ICU beds (30).
There's an interesting timeline for the various vaccines in the pipeline here at this Bloomberg page. Sat in on a Zoom meeting with Dr. Jeffrey Demain yesterday. He's one of the medical directors on the Providence COVID Coalition. The State is expecting the first tests to arrive Dec. 14.
Saturday, December 5 - Stay home if it's at all possible. Our previous highs for new resident cases, a couple of times, were in the seven hundreds. Well, we skipped the eight hundreds altogether. Today there were 922/908 new resident cases. We're closing in on 1000 a day, in population 700,000 Alaska! And there were 24 new cases among non-residents. There are times when being right is a bitter-sweet thing. Wednesday I wrote:
"The impact of Thanksgiving will start showing this weekend. Maybe it will be modified by Anchorage's tighter restrictions that started yesterday."
There was one new death. Five new hospitalizations. BUT we're at 164 COVID (and suspected) hospitalizations. Our highest number ever. But we gained three vacant ICU beds - we're at 30.
There were almost 17,000 tests. Test Positivity slipped back up to 7.24.
There's nothing to say, but stay home. Get a pass to the Anchorage International Film Festival and just watch movies for a week.
Friday, December 4 - The Dashboard still says Nov. 3, but the numbers have been updated and I'm assuming they're for today. I totally understand how one can forget to change the date. The Anchorage Daily News says the Department of Health and Human Services (DHSS) is trying to hire people to help contact tracing and data processing among other things. And also how the numbers on the Dashboard are really an undercount.
"Cases identified in recent weeks have exceeded the ability of public health officials to immediately report individual cases, according to a weekly update from the state health department. That data backlog means that the total number of cases reported this week are an undercount of how many cases have actually been identified through testing."
So keep that in mind. These are merely the official numbers I'm reporting from the State's report. And they're not good.
12 new deaths (total 141 now.) 11 new hospitalizations (total 779 since March). 750/744 new resident cases. That's just less than yesterday's all time high for a single day.
Just under 10,000 tests. Test Positivity is 6.65.
149 hospitalized COVID cases, down 6 from yesterday. But remember 12 people died. There are three more available ICU beds in Alaska - 27. This number turns red when 75% of the ICU beds are filled.
I was expecting a post Thanksgiving surge to start tomorrow, but maybe we're seeing the pre- Thanksgiving travel showing up already.
Thursday, December 3 - Remember how we were all waiting for November 3? Well, it's December 3 already. And not good news on the Alaska COVID front.
8 new deaths. 13 new hospitalizations. 760/755 new resident cases. That's the highest single day increase. There were almost 16,000 tests and the Test Positivity dropped back into the 6% range - 6.66.
155 hospitalized with COVID (up two from yesterday). And number of available ICU beds matches yesterday's low point of 24.
As long as the new case numbers go up, it's not going to get better. Enjoy the snow.
Wednesday, December 2 - No new deaths. 19 new hospitalizations. COVID patients in hospitals went down seven to 153. That's good. But available ventilators is down to its lowest level since I've been tracking it on the chart to 24.
Roughly 6000 tests. Test positivity, after dipping in the 6% range yesterday, is up to 7.27.
New cases: 697/679. Using my numbers, that's the highest since Nov. 14. Using the State's numbers, it's the highest since Nov 27.
So, we're galloping along, increasing the daily new case number by 500 or 600, almost 700 today. Current hospitalizations are in the 150-160 range now and we have the fewest available ventilators ever. The impact of Thanksgiving will start showing this weekend. Maybe it will be modified by Anchorage's tighter restrictions that started yesterday.
Tuesday, December 1 - One new death and 24 new hospitalizations. (When the numbers first showed there were 2 new deaths and 34 hospitalizations, but when I double checked the numbers they had, thankfully, gone down.) Thanksgiving was just last Thursday. If there's a post holiday surge, it should start Thursday and go about a week.
511/515 new resident cases. We've been in the five and six hundred range for a couple of weeks with a dip or two into the four hundreds and a day above 700.
About 7,400 tests. Test Positivity at 6.09, was at its lowest since October 23 (5.25). That's good if we keep going in that direction. Before October 23 we were in the 4-5 range. Before October 4 we were in the 2-3 range. This number is the percent of tests that are positive.
COVID patients currently in the hospital (160) and number of vacant ICU beds(44) didn't change since yesterday, so I suspect those numbers just weren't updated, given there were 24 new hospitalizations.
Here's a Twitter thread from the physician/research Dean, Brown School of Public Health. Explaining how and why the standards for being admitted to hospitals is going up, so that people who would have been admitted a month ago are now being sent home. Doesn't necessarily apply to Alaska.
Monday, November 30-
No new deaths and only 3 new hospitalizations. But I couldn't get to the chart of the rest of the hospital data. It didn't open like usual on the Dashboard page and when I clicked the link, it took me to a page where I had to sign in to go further.
[UPDATED] I checked again on the hospital stats. 160 COVID and C suspected patients are in hospitals. That's a high. There are 44 ICU beds available.
507/478 new resident cases
5200 new tests. Test Positivity down slightly to 6.39.
Sunday, November 29 - No new deaths and only 1 new hospitalizations. But a new Anchorage Daily News article says that the State is having a hard time keeping track. One lab hasn't been reporting things properly and the State is short of staff. So that would explain the odd jumps and dips I've been reporting.
612/628 new resident cases.
We've broken the million mark in tests. That's a good thing, though many of the tests are for the same people - like health care workers - over and over again. 1,006,180. That's about 7100 new tests. This Johns Hopkins Map on Tests per 1,000 people, puts Alaska and DC as the two top states. 6.7 Test Positivity. The National Average today is 9.4 according to Johns Hopkins University.
157 COVID and C suspected patients are currently hospitalized. 43 ICU beds available.
Saturday, November 28 - Two new deaths. 24 new hospitalizations. There are 53 COVID or COVID suspected patients currently hospitalized. That's not the highest. It's three less than yesterday, which was the highest since I've been tracking these numbers on the chart. The number of available ICU units went up by 12. Not clear why. Does it have to do with non-COVID patients?
650/639 new Alaska resident cases for a total of 30, 204. To get a sense of how many people that is, in last April's Municipal election, 31,950 people voted for Andy Holleman for School Board (an office open to all Anchorage voters) and 12,267 voted for his opponent Phil Isley. Another 1240 people are listed as non-resident total cases. 18 more than yesterday's 1222.
There were 8300 tests and our Test Positivity is 6.9.
I haven't been recording number of COVID patients on ventilators, but I've been looking at that number. Today is on the high side: 25.
Being on a ventilator, I learned some years ago (fortunately not from personal experience) is horrible. Which is why they sedate people on ventilators. To get a sense, read this article from The American Conservative by someone who tells his experience and the nightmares he still has 13 years later.
Friday, November 27 - The State's numbers make me scratch my head. Not sure where yesterday's fourth death comes from. Usually the number adjust the next day. But today there were no new deaths and only 3 new hospitalizations. (after 52 in the previous two days.)
New resident cases = 662/724. 662 = today's # -yesterday's number. I don't know where the State's extra 62 new cases come from. I think that's by far the biggest gap between our numbers.
There are 157 suspected and confirmed cases in the hospital now. That's a bigger jump than today's three new cases. But the hospitalized numbers hadn't changed yesterday, so maybe the jump came from the unposted numbers yesterday. I'm not being critical, just observing.
We're down to 40 available ICU beds.
21,000 tests and the Test Positivity is back up .05 to 6,5. We've been below seven for four days now (though this is a seven day weighted average) and before that we were above eight. Lower is better.
Maybe with the new Municipal hunker down rules we'll start seeing the (bad) numbers decline. Hoping.
Thursday, November 26 - Happy Thanksgiving. 3 Alaskans didn't make it to celebrate. 24 people joined those already hospitalized. 553/557 new resident cases.
Hospital numbers are the same as yesterday, so I'm guessing they weren't updated yet.
15,300 tests. Test Positivity went down .05 to 6.45.
The dashboard says 3 deaths, but a Tweet from DHSS just now says 4. That just shows how fluid all these numbers are. I'm just recording key numbers posted on the dashboard. Calculating deaths and new cases by subtracting yesterday's numbers from todays. If anyone ever wants to compare the numbers posted each day to the adjusted numbers, the table here will help with that.
It seems that wearing a mask is like making a difficult apology. You have to overcome lots of emotional obstacles before you can achieve the very simple task of putting on a mask. All those folks complaining about closing down businesses who refuse to wear masks, simply don't get that at this point the experts basically agree that masks go a long way to slow down the virus. If everyone had faithfully worn masks, our numbers would be much better and more businesses could be open. And if the experts proved wrong in the end, the biggest sacrifice people would have made was putting on a mask. And if the experts proved right, the thousand plus people dying daily in the US might have lived long enough to get vaccinated.
Wednesday, November 25 - It's 1:45pm and still no update yet today.
3:18pm - No new deaths. BUT 32! new hospitalizations. That shatters previous highs. We had 18 on November 11. There are 140 confirmed or suspected COVID cases currently in the hospital. Available ICU beds dropped by 12 to 44.
There were 679/700 new cases. That's probably the biggest discrepancy between the State number and mine.
About 10,800 tests and Test Positivity went down slightly to 6.5.
Here's a link to the Johns Hopkins Univerisity daily COVID-19 Data in Motion page. A friend who was in Spain when the pandemic broke out said that the mask enforcers there are 'little old ladies' who scold non-mask makers who quickly comply. Here they'd probably get knocked over by the mask scofflaws.
Tuesday, November 24 - 13 new Deaths! 14 new hospitalizations. Total current hospitalizations went down from 141 yesterday to 139. Available ICU beds went up by two to 56. But as we're hearing and reading - health care workers are exhausted physically and mentally.
There were 584/578 new resident cases reported. (I've explained the two different numbers above the chart and on other days.) Our total COVID resident count is now 27,669 since the beginning.
There are people who push through the intersection as the light turns red. Who have sex without protection. Who ride motorcycles without helmets. Who smoke. And people who are planning to go to Thanksgiving dinner with family members and friends. Different people are comfortable with different levels of risk. And are willing to risk the health and lives of others.
We're still at war in Iraq and Afghanistan because 2977 people died on September 11, 2001. But people aren't willing to wear a mask even, when that many people are dying of COVID every two days or so in the US.
Monday, November 23 - Some positive signs today. No new deaths, but six new hospitalizations. The number of new cases dipped - 498/501. This is only the third time since November 12 that we've dipped below 500 new resident cases. (My count. State was just over 500.)
We had about 6700 new tests and Test Positivity is down to 8.13.
Confirmed and suspected COVID patients in the hospital is up to 141. But available ICU beds is the highest in a week - 54.
I saw this chart yesterday. I'm not sure how to track where the numbers come from, but it puts Anchorage second only to Bismarck, North Dakota in "Chance of 1 person having COVID-19 in a gathering of 10" This could be from dividing our population by number of "active cases". But that number is high because they aren't keeping up with recovered cases. So our active cases number is inflated.
But then, South Korea had 250 new cases on November 22 (to our 543) and they have 51.6 million people compared to our 700,000.
Sunday, November 22 - No new deaths (though yesterday I had one new death. Not sure if I had a typo or the State updated the numbers after I saw them. I corrected yesterday's number on the chart.) No new hospitalizations. Since November 11, we've only been down into the sevens twice.
There are 133 Alaska residents in the hospital either with COVID or suspected with COVID. 44 ICU beds available.
About 7600 tests. Test Positivity down slightly to 8.74.
So on a day to day perspective, we moved in the right direction. But we have, over the last month, had an upward trend with drops and then back up to new highs.
Stay safe.
Saturday, November 21 - One new death. Six new hospitalizations - 600 total today. 124 in the hospital today. We've increased our ICU beds by 12 to 44.
14,000 tests. Positivity up to 8.99.
675/670 new cases today. Second highest total ever. November 14, just a week ago, we had 739/373.
Except for hospital beds, all the trends going in the wrong direction.
Friday, November 20 - No new deaths. 13 new hospitalizations. 460/459 new resident cases. This is the lowest total since November 5 (two weeks ago) which was the last time we had a reading in the three hundreds.
Just under 6000 new tests. Test positivity down under 8 to 7.76.
127 hospitalizations (113 confirmed COVID and 14 suspected). That's a drop from yesterday.
32 ICU beds available. The state has this in red ink because 75% of the ICU beds are now in use.
Let's hope we have a downward trend starting and that Thanksgiving doesn't blow it.
Thursday, November 19 - The new case counts aren't available yet today, but other data are. [I've updated this below because the numbers came in later, but other numbers changed too.]
2 [1] new deaths. 20 [9] new hospitalizations. Hospitalizations totals are odd. [Not so odd with the updated numbers.] Even with the large number of new ones, the total listed (139 (117 confirmed plus 22 suspected) is down from yesterday's 147. But a different DHSS site (Alaska COVID-19 Case Count Summary Nov 18) said there are 139 cases plus 18 suspected cases in the hospital. So, as I've said before, consider all these numbers as somewhat fluid, but in the ballpark. I think the recovered and related total active cases got so far off they weren't still in the ballpark which is why the stopped posting them the other day.
[490/500 new cases.]
About 14,000 new tests and the Test Positivity is down slightly to 8.03. (Eight out of every hundred tests is positive.) [These stay the same.]
Association of Flight Attendants-CWA Anchorage Local President, Matt Cook - wrote a very strong rebuke of Alaska Rep. Lora Reinbold for her attack on Alaska Airlines for making her wear a mask on a recent flight. It's worth reading.
Wednesday, November 18 - The ADN reports Alaska's 100th death. I'm reporting Alaska resident cases for the most part. I did notice a non-resident death posted yesterday, so I'm guessing that's what gets the total to 100.
No new deaths reported today. 11 new hospitalizations.
545/549 new resident cases. This is the lowest since last Thursday when there were 481 new cases.
About 6900 tests and Test Positivity up to 8.26.
Because the State's stopped reporting recoveries and active cases (because they can't keep up with recoveries so that both those numbers are inaccurate) I added, today, hospitalizations (both COVID and suspected COVID) and available ICU beds.
There are 147 (of those 18 suspected) COVID patients in the hospitalized.
There are 34 available ICU beds. This number has been going up and down daily.
The Anchorage Assembly extended the emergency orders last night.
Tuesday, November 17 - Today's case numbers are delayed and the announcement also confirms what I've been speculating - they aren't keeping up to date on the recoveries which also then inflates the active case numbers. Here's what it says:
"The Cases Dashboard update is delayed and expected to be posted at 5pm. Please use the Summary Tables to view today's COVID-19 case counts.
Due to the increase in cases statewide, certain areas of data entry are lagging far behind real-time and we are not able to update cases with the date they are released from isolation (recovered). As a result, we are removing the active and recovered case counts from the data hub to prevent inaccurate or outdated information from being reported. More information can be found on the Cases FAQ."
I found the summaries, but the latest one includes the data posted yesterday. I'll check back at 5pm.
UPDATED 4:30pm: 1 new death, 14 new hospitalizations. 634/631 new cases.
About 6300 tests. Test Positivity is 7.91.
As the quote from the site above says, they're behind tracking the recovered people and so the tables don't have either recovered or total active cases.
119 hospitalized COVID patients, plus 17 more suspected.
43 available ICU beds which is a big jump up from yesterday's 30.
Monday, November 16 - Had some technical difficulties with Blogger this morning.
No new deaths. 9 new hospitalizations. 578/556 new resident cases.
About 5000 new tests. Test Positivity down a smidgen to 8.31.
121 COVID patients hospitalized with 22 more suspected COVID patients in the hospital.
There's only one new recovery listed, but I'm sure there are more. So the total active cases of 16,049 is probably high.
But it's worth noting it took 7 month (until September 30) to get over 4000 and only six weeks to increase that by four times today. That's what words like "taking off" or "spiking" refer to.
Or from September 10 to to go over 6,000 total resident cases to just under four times that many (23,240) today.
If you think there should be stricter mandates for masks and distancing you can email your testimony to the Assembly to testimony@anchorageak.gov. That goes to all Assembly members. But you can find the email links for your own specific Assembly members here. They meet Tuesday night to discuss new COVID measures.
Sunday, November 15 - It's almost 2pm. The State site says it was updated today at 12:05pm, But on Chrome (what I've been using since I had trouble with getting the numbers via Safari) the actual numbers aren't showing up on my computer. I even rebooted and still the same problem. Even tried Firefox, but the same problem. Does COVID attack computers too?
Found some numbers via @DHSS Twitter to this State site in different format:
642 new resident cases, with non-residents it's 654. Anchorage has 339.
No new deaths, one new hospitalization.
123 COVID patients are hospitalized plus 23 suspected COVID patients hospitalized.
The dashboard is working again. So let me add a couple of numbers the other site didn't show.
Total active resident cases is now up to 16,049.
The Dashboard only has 118 Covid patients hospitalized and the same 23 suspected.
Down to 30 ICU beds available.
Wear masks when near others out of your house.
Saturday, November 14 - Most numbers got posted at noon, but new cases were missing. The total active cases went up and suggested there would be more than 700 new cases. I waited and here are the numbers now.
1 new death.
9 new hospitalizations.
739/737 new resident cases. That's a new daily high. November 7 we had 607 new cases. So this is a big jump. 487 of these were in Anchorage. That guy without the mask at the market? Yeah, him.
862,264 new tests and 8.94 Positivity Number.
15,403 active cases in Alaska
106 people with COVID are hospitalized with 19 more suspected. Down to 34 available ICU beds and a lot of exhausted health care workers.
Reproductive number is 1.09. The good news is we're 9th lowest in the US. The bad news is all the states except Mississippi are above the target 1.0. You can learn more about this number here.
Friday, November 13 - Unlucky day? It's 1:20pm and the State hasn't updated the numbers yet.
2pm still waiting Twitter chatter says Providence Hospital in Anchorage has asked for a mobile morgue and patients are being asked to do own contact tracing because State health employees overwhelmed.
Here's something I missed yesterday on the State COVID Dashboard:
"On 10/19 there was a glitch in the TeleTracking system, and as a result, some counts were under-reported. CDC corrected the suspected cases counts on 10/27. Hospital reported ventilators available counts were corrected on 10/28. The COVID-19 Testing"
And yes, the message ends in mid-sentence like that.
3pm. Still nothing posted. (Their target deadline is noon.)
4pm. Still nothing.
5:45 - I stopped checking at 4pm and it says they posted at 4:30. Not any great changes. That is, the trends continue with increasing numbers of COVID cases at about the same level.
One new death. (Total 97. I wish it was reasonable to hope we wouldn't hit 100, but it's highly likely we will go well over that threshold before things get better.)
9 new hospitalizations. (total 529 - 108 COVID cases in the hospital now, with 13 more suspected cases.)
587/584 new resident cases (total 21,275 - 2/3 of whom are currently active (14,666). That's probably inflated since the recoveries haven't been updated for a few days, and even then, the numbers seem low.)
The number of available ICU beds has gone up, by 16, to 60. That's the good news today.
Thursday, November 12 - No new deaths, but seven new hospitalization for a total of 38 in the last three days. Total Alaska resident COVID cases is 20,688. That's an additional 481/477.
There are 14,080 active cases listed.
There were 10,100 new tests reported and TEST POSITIVITY IS THE HIGHEST we've had - 9.66. That means for every 100 people tested, almost 10 are positive. On Oct 12 (one month ago) it was 4.6 and that seemed high at the time.
There are 100 COVID cases in the hospital and 13 more suspected cases. That's down a bit from yesterday. There are 44 available ICU beds in Alaska, one less than yesterday. It seems I should add these numbers to the chart, because I'm mentioning them every day because they are an important warning for how well our health care system can handle patients. Just thinking about how to do it without making the chart too big.
The vaccine will be here eventually, but how many more people need to die first, or get really sick?
Wednesday, November 11 - 4 more deaths, 18 new hospitalizations (a new one day record). 495/486 new resident cases.
Test data makes sense again today (at least comparing today's numbers with yesterday's) - about 6,000 new tests. Test positivity is almost a new high at 8.45. (it was 8.54 on Oct. 30).
Our active resident cases, as I predicted yesterday, is over 12,000 - 12,120. But be skeptical because the recovered numbers aren't really current.
101 COVID patients are hospitalized, plus 16 more suspected. There are 45 available ICU beds (for all illnesses.)
Tuesday, November 10 - Whoops. I had the numbers on the chart this morning, but then I got distracted and never got this up.
Eight new deaths today. That's the most noteworthy stat. That's the highest single day count. Though all I can say is that eight were reported today, not sure they all died yesterday. We're at 92 deaths, so I'd say it's likely we'll be over 100 deaths by the end of the year. That's not something I want to be right about. But it's clear Alaska is contributing its share to the national surge.
There were also 13 new hospitalizations. That ties the previous high death total on October 23. We had 525/524 new resident cases, for a total of 19,712 total resident cases. Tomorrow we're posed to go over the 20,000 mark.
The test numbers continue to be weird. Yesterday Anne Zink Tweeted "A total of 767,997 tests have been conducted, with 26,974 tests conducted in the previous seven days." But on November 4 there were 627,758 total tests. November 5 there were 781,826 tests reported. That's a jump of 150,000. Shortly afterward, she posted there were problems with that chart and it wasn't posted for a day. Today 828,140 was the total tests, 60,000 more than yesterday. Her number of 26,974 tests in seven days, by itself, sounds reasonable. That's about 3500 tests a day which is consistent with previous numbers. But the jump from 627,758 on November 4 to 828,140 is NOT consistent with any of those numbers. Unless they found 100,000 unreported tests over a a month or so and just dropped them into the total one day, there's no accounting for the sudden jump.
517 more people were added to the active resident COVID count. That's minus the eight who died, presumably, but they haven't been keeping up with recoveries. Either lots of people are staying sick a long time, or they just aren't tracking the recoveries as diligently as before. And with all the new cases requiring contact tracing, that makes sense. But probably means that active number is high.
There are 103 hospitalized COVID patients and 17 more suspected of COVID in the hospital. There are 48 available ICU beds which is one more than yesterday. So even though eight people died there's only one more free ICU bed than there was yesterday.
I suspect anyone who's found these posts doesn't need to be reminded to mask up and limit contacts with others. Lots of contagious folks in Anchorage right now and it keeps getting worse each day. It's like zombies but they look like normal people and they just have to breath on you to get you infected.
Monday, November 9 - The good news: No new deaths or hospitalizations reported. But still, there 471/462 new resident cases. No new recoveries reported, but there have to be some, so the total active resident cases is surely higher than it really is - 12,591. But even if it's only 10,000 it's way too high.
Testing numbers are back up, but the numbers are very suspect. It says 767,997 total tests, which is 140,000 more than last Wednesday. There's no way there were 30,000 tests a day since then. And the test positivity number would be much lower - it's 6.9 today. With number of tests off, not sure how they calculated positivity.
103 hospitalized with COVID and 16 more suspected. That keeps inching up daily. But 3 more ICU beds are available (46) than yesterday. 9 COVID patients are on ventilators, but there are plenty (339) available.
And while beds are still available, the question now turns to people to staff the hospitals. The toll on workers - those who get sick, those who die, and those who are just exhausted from the pressure - is high. We don't have figures available on this critical part of care.
Sunday, November 8 - I want to say something like "one step forward and two back" about the Alaska COVID numbers, but that's not quite right. We aren't going forward (reducing the spread of the virus) at all. It's just that our increases jump now again, then we fall back to jumps that were big a week ago, but seem smaller compared to our last jump. Does that make sense?
We had 518/210 new resident cases. That was a huge number two weeks ago. But we hit 600 yesterday so it doesn't feel that big today. Feels almost like getting better. But it's not. Because the number of active cases keeps climbing - 12,120 today. And while that number is probably inflated because they aren't subtracting all the recovered cases (they aren't tracking them rigorously, putting their resources to contact tracing active cases), generally we're adding more and more people to the active list. And the more active cases, the more chances to spread the virus. And the cases listed here are only those who have been tested.
Talking about tested, @AnneZink posted yesterday what I suspected - the part of the dashboard tracking testing has been taken down for repairs. It had jumped 150,000 which was impossible.
TESTING – The testing dashboard has been temporarily disabled while the data team troubleshoots a problem with the testing data. We anticipate it to be fixed early next week.
— Anne Zink (@annezinkmd) November 8, 2020
No new deaths today, 3 new hospitalizations.
100 COVID patients hospitalized, 19 more suspected. Available ICU beds up to 43 from 41 yesterday.
Saturday, November 7 - One newly elected president. I mention that because the old president is largely responsible, through his incompetence dealing with COVID, for most of the cases and deaths. Sure, there would have been deaths, but not like we're having.
In Alaska, no new deaths reported, 3 new hospitalizations.
BUT 601 new cases. The first time we've hit 600 in a day. When do we hit 1000? I'd like to say it's impossible, but at one point 600 seemed impossible.
Officially we have 11,606 active resident cases, but they aren't doing a good job of tracking recoveries so that number is likely high. Still, not comforting.
The State posted new numbers today with yesterday's date. The testing chart had the same numbers as yesterday (which for the last three days have been totally off - Thursday they jumped 150K tests. Then there was an update with today's date. But the chart with the test numbers was totally missing.
The hospitalization chart says there are 95 COVID patients hospitalize and another 10 suspected cases. That's up from yesterday's 86 and 9. But available ICU beds are up to 41. (The chart doesn't distinguish between COVID and other patients on the ICUs).
Friday, November 6 - No new deaths. Ten new hospitalizations. (Same as yesterday)
525/502 new cases. This is only the second time we've been over 500 new cases (last time was October 25)
Test numbers are still weird. Fewer than yesterday, but still over 150,000 more than Wednesday.
Test positivity dropped from 7.15 to 6.65.
We have 97 hospitalized COVID patients and 9 more suspected cases in the hospital. That's a new high from what I can tell. 32 available ICU beds left. One more than yesterday.
Thursday, November 5 - No new deaths. Ten new hospitalizations. 308/291 new resident cases.
10,512 active resident cases reported. Again, I think this is high because they don't seem to be tracking recovered cases.
Test number is way out of whack. It's more than 150,000 higher than yesterday. The most we've ever had was about 10,000 in one day. Test positivity is slightly higher at 7.15
89 COVID patients currently hospitalized plus 15 more suspected. I think that's the highest ever. Available ICU beds up 3 to 31. These are both COVID and non-COVID patients. So it seems more COVID patients using beds, other patients must have moved out.
Wednesday, November 4 - No new deaths. Two days in a row! 5 new hospitalizations. 404/405 new resident cases (8 more non-resident cases). We've hit 10,205 active cases, but as I've said repeatedly, these are probably inflated because of difficulty tracking recoveries. Only ten recoveries were reported.
3,003 new tests*. Test positivity back up into the sevens - 7.12.
86 COVID patients in hospital beds, another 9 suspected. So it looks like some of yesterday's suspected cases were confirmed.
Available ICU beds dropped to 28 (it was 41 yesterday). Over 75% of available ICU beds are now in use. That includes COVID and non-COVID patients. Reproductive number 1.13.
UAA economist whose dissertation was on pandemic economics said mandatory masks is probably the best path to economic recovery because without stopping virus, people aren't going to go out and spend anyway. Masks plus closing riskiest businesses (like bars and restaurants), is the sweet spot.
*I generally just eye-ball the numbers and give an approximate number of new tests. It really doesn't need to be exact. If you need that, you can look at the chart. But today the numbers were so easy to subtract, an exact number took no time.
Tuesday, November 3 - Election Day and hopefully the beginning toward a more effective COVID-19 policy - For the first day in a week there were no new deaths. There were 17 deaths since last Tuesday!
Six new hospitalizations. 388/380 new resident cases for an official total of 9811 active cases. But I think this number is getting less and less useful. It appears that tracking down recovered cases has fallen by the wayside as resources are presumably focused on contact tracing of new cases. And rightfully so if DHSS doesn't have the resources to do both. But we had 3533 official cases on October 3 and one suspects that in a month, many, if not most of them have recovered.
4600 new tests. Test Positivity up slightly to 6.58.
80 COVID hospitalizations and 17 more suspected. Available ICU beds is up slightly to 41 in the state.
Reproductive number is 1.17.
Monday, November 2 - 1 new death, 3 new hospitalizations. 350/344 new resident cases.
There were no tests reported yesterday, so today's 13,900 tests count for two days. Test positivity is dropping - 6.48. That's still above the WHO target of >5.0, but it's better than the last few days.
Total active cases is up to another all time high - 9425 - but as with the last few days, it's probably inflated because they haven't been tracking recoveries carefully. There were only 6 reported.
Hospitalizations dropped by 1 to 79 (there was a death) and 18 suspected COVID hospitalizations.
Reproductive level is 1.18. Anchorage folks, enjoy the sun.
Sunday, NOVEMBER 1 - 348/347 new cases. One new death. No new hospitalizations reported. EXCEPT that yesterday there were 76 COVID patients in the hospital and 18 more suspected COVID patients. Today the dashboard says 80 COVID patients and 18 more suspected are hospitalized.
There are still only 36 ICU beds available. But there's one fewer COVID patient using a ventilator.
Number of tests and Test Positivity were not updated with the other data. Maybe it will show up later. The page that shows Reproductive Rate keeps saying "An error has occurred."
Total active cases is now listed as 8740, but again I suspect that's high because there were only 3 recoveries listed. With 8700 active cases, either they just can't keep up with tracking recoveries, or people are staying sick much longer that in the past. I'm betting on the first option.
Stay healthy. This is not forever. If you're economically comfortable, contribute some of your blessings to those who aren't.
Saturday, October 31 - 437/440 new resident cases. This is the first time we've had an increase in the 400s, though last Sunday we had 521. Since then it's been in the 300s, higher numbers more than lower.
One new death. That's at least one per day since Tuesday. A total of 15. Each one has a name and a mother and father at least.
11 new hospitalizations.
The State reported 8740 active resident cases. I suspect the number is high. They only reported 3 new recoveries. There have to be more than that, but with 300+ cases a day, they're probably spending their time contact tracing for new cases rather than following up to see if people have recovered.
There are 76 COVID-19 cases in the hospital plus 18 suspected cases. There are 36 ICU beds available out of 134. But that isn't just COVID patients. Only 6 of the 34 ventilators in use are being used by COVID patients
There were about 7900 tests and the Test Positivity is down a bit from yesterday, but still the third highest it's been, at 7.3.
The governor is talking about a special legislative session on COVID. I guess he wants to share the blame for whatever action is taken. (But, of course, I don't know. There may well be legitimate reasons he has to involve the legislature.)
Friday, October 30, 2020 - It keeps getting worse. Back in:
- June the increases were in the teens and twenties and thirties.
- In July the new cases were in the 80s and 90s then spiked on July 26 to 189.
- August was mostly under 100 new cases a day.
- September started out mostly under 100 and ranged from 35 to 128 new cases a day.
- October 5 we hit 208 then we fluctuated above and below 200 until Oct 16. Oct 24 we hit 371, then 520 Oct. 25. We've been above 348 since.
"Alaska Airlines Center Operating StatusThe Alaska Airlines Center (AAC) is under contract with the State of Alaska and is still considered an alternate care site at this time. The original contract was set to expire on Sept. 30 but was extended for an additional six months starting Oct. 1 and ending March 31, 2021, after which time the contract could be renewed on a month-to-month basis. As an integral aspect of health care and hospital preparation, the AAC will remain on this month-to-month contract until such time as COVID-19 is no longer deemed a threat to local hospital capacity."
Thursday, October 29, 2020 - Sit down. 6 new deaths. That matches the highest death count on Sept 25. We've had nine deaths in the last three days. There were 12 new hospitalizations. With yesterday's 13, that's 25 two days. 34 in the last three days.
There were 359/349 new resident cases and our current total cases is 14,456. That total increased by 3600 cases since last Thursday! It took us 5 months (March-August 8) to get our first 3600 cases.
There are 7932 active resident cases now in Alaska. Plus 412 non-resident active cases.
There were about 3700 new tests reported today and our Test Positivity jumped to 8.1. (We skipped 7 altogether.)
There are 67 COVID-19 patients in hospitals plus another 22 suspected COVID-19 patients in hospitals. We're down to 27 available ICU beds. This is not a good time to have any kind of emergency health problem requiring an ICU in Alaska. At this rate we're a week or two away from no available ICU beds unless they can set up some new ones. The overflow hospital set up at the Alaska Center early on is now closed, though I suspect it still could be reopened. (I have a call into UAA Public Relations office and will update this if I get something more definite.)
[UPDATE: See October 30 entry for official statement on this from UAA.]
The sun just came out. Take solace in such simple pleasures.
Wednesday, October 28, 2020 - 1 new death, 13 new hospitalizations. That's the most ever. Past high was 10 (Oct 15), and yesterday was 9. 355/350 new resident cases. That gets us to 7604 active resident cases in Alaska.
Just over 3,000 tests. Test positivity up again to a new high of 6.89.
63 currently hospitalized for COVID-19 plus 17 more hospitalized who are suspected COVID patients.
We're down to 30 ICU beds vacant. The State dashboard chart* for this has turned to RED. Yesterday there were 41. If we keep getting 300+ new cases a day, the ICU beds are going to be full very soon.
*There are a number of charts, you have to scroll down to get the one on hospitalization stats.
Tuesday, October 27, 2020 - 382/378 new resident cases. 2 new deaths. 9 new hospitalizations.
We have 7302 active cases. There are 57 people hospitalized with COVID-19 and another 24 hospitalized with suspected COVID-19. There are 41 ICU beds available. If this doubles again in a month, we won't have ICU beds available for COVID-19 patients or people who need them for other health crises.
There were about 6600 tests yesterday and the test positivity is up to our highest rate - 6.61. That means for every hundred people tested almost 7 were positive. We'd been under 2% for a long time. The WHO target is to be under 5.0.
Our reproductive number is 1.18 (the range is 1.11-1.25. When this number is above 1.0, the virus spreads.
We're in a significantly worse place than we were one month ago. But I realize that since I check these numbers and write about them daily, I have a much better sense of what's happening than most people. I don't know how to communicate with people who do not think this is serious. And as long as we have politicians telling it's not big deal, it will only get worse.
Monday, October 26, 2020 - Today is not as bad as the last two days. 348/347 new resident cases. It's the 3rd highest daily count, but lower than the last two days.
No new deaths or hospitalizations reported. But also only 2 recoveries reported. Not sure if these numbers reflect what's really going on or if they're just behind in the tracking. Up to 6990 active cases. This could be lower actually if they just are keeping up with the recovered cases. But it looks likely tomorrow we'll have over 7000 active cases. Less than a month ago (Sept 28) we had less than half that number (3393).
Reported total tests: 570,844, which is just under 11,000 new tests. Test Positivity rate dropped from yesterday's 6.32 to 5.85. Still over the target of 5.0.
We're down slightly to 50 COVID cases in hospitals now and available ICU beds is 47. That's up from yesterday's 41.
Wear your masks proudly and gently.
Sunday, October 25, 2020 - 521/520 NEW CASES. Am I overusing the larger font? I don't think so. Yesterday it was justified as we got into the 300s with an increase of 90 cases from the day before. Today we just skipped over the 400s and went right to the 500s with 150 more cases than yesterday's all time high. It took us six months, from March to October 2 to have a day with more than 150 new resident cases. We broke 200 three days later. Then it took 20 more days (yesterday) to break 300 new cases, and one day later we break the 500 mark! I'd note the State numbers are only one digit different from mine today.
The non-resident total case numbers went down! for two days (I'm guessing they recategorized people from non-resident to resident).
And today we have new tests reported - around 7200 more than yesterday and the day before when they had the same numbers posted.
Significantly, Test Positivity is its highest ever - 6.25, well above the <5.0 target.
We now have 6644 active resident COVID-19 cases. (There's 406 more non-resident cases.)
There are 58 people listed as hospitalized with COVID-19 on the State dashboard. It also says there are 41 ICU beds left out of 153 total.
Most new cases:
Anchorage 209 Matsu 75 Fairbanks NS - 74 Juneau 35 Bethel 20 Kusilvak 18
If 6644 people had some contact with five people each, that means there are another 30,000 people out there who have been exposed recently. Alaskans, we need to hunker down once more.
Saturday, October 24, 2020 - 371/353 NEW CASES!!! This is a 25% increase just from yesterday, which was itself a record high. A month ago, Sept 24, we jumped from 50 cases (Sept 23) to 140 and then stayed mostly over 100, then gradually over 200.
184 are from Anchorage. 45 are from Kusilvac Census area. That's the former Wade Hampton Borough and includes Hooper Bay. It's total population is 8,303! Matsu has 34 new cases.
No new deaths, only four new hospitalizations, but it takes a bit to show up. It may be that most of this bump is younger people who will get through this more easily (with exceptions of course) since our numbers have been at the >200 level for a week now. And we have had an increase in hospitalizations and deaths, but not a giant spike.
The State Dashboard says that there are 58 people currently hospitalized with COVID-19 and 41 ICU beds available (out of a total of 133.)
But the ADN has a story about how the State's dashboard numbers on hospitalizations have been wrong on the low side. And they're just catching up on those numbers.
The Dashboard says we have broken the 6000 mark for current active cases - 6128.
Like the Midwest, Alaskans have felt that we had some sort of bubble of geography protecting us, but I think that bubble has burst, as our numbers climb at a higher and faster rate now.
The number of tests and test positivity haven't been updated as I post this. I'll check later and if there's an update, I'll update here.
It's getting colder now, but that means people might invite people inside. Try to avoid this as much as possible.
Friday, October 23, 2020 - Seems there was more adjusting than usual. There's difference of 42 today between what I calculate as the number of new cases (State's total cases today - State's total cases yesterday - and what the State posted. 281/239. And there are six fewer total recovered resident cases today than there were yesterday. But there are 181 more active cases today - 5780. That number just keeps going up.
There were about 4,050 new tests. Test positivity is above 5.0 for two days in a row for the first time since I've tracked that number. (And when I started, as you can see scrolling up the chart, the numbers were much lower.) WHO puts under 5.0 as the target. Ours today was 5.25.
There are currently 59 COVID positive hospitalized patients in Alaska. 47 available ICU beds.
Reproductive number is up again slightly to 1.09.
Folks, this is going to be a long winter.
Thursday, October 22, 2020 - No new deaths, 3 new hospitalizations. 232/210 new resident cases. Big gap today between State and my number. 60 new recoveries listed, so active resident cases are up by 179 to 5599.
Fewer tests lately - only about 1600, with test positivity up over 5 again to 5.22. You'd think with the number of cases going up, more people would be testing. But, of course, 1400 or so people tested negative.
Reproductive number is 1.07 again. Target is under 1.0. And it's getting colder. Low 20s F in the mornings.
Wednesday, October 21, 2020 - One new death (68 total), 9 new hospitalizations (375 total), 214/294 new cases (11,605 total). All those numbers are for Alaska residents only. About 600 tests - one of the lowest levels for a while. Test Positivity = 4.61, up from yesterday. Under 5 is the target. Reproductive Number = 1.05. Under 1.0 is the target.
Total active resident cases = 5427, yet another new high.
Tuesday, October 20, 2020 - 209/213 new resident cases. Total active resident cases is up to 5284.
I'm not sure about the number of new tests. I copied the number wrong (I made it 600K instead of 500K) but when I check back on the State's cumulative test chart, the numbers are very different from what I've been documenting daily. They're obviously filling in as reports come in late. So I will remind you that the numbers on my chart are what are reported daily. Differences between my numbers and the State's reflect updates done by the State of their numbers.
Test positivity is down again from 4.6 to 4.25 - but remember, this is a seven day average so numbers for each of those seven days change daily. But, again, not on my chart. If anyone ever wants to compare the State's initial reporting and their corrected reporting - my chart shows the initial reporting.
No new deaths, 5 new hospitalizations. Again, the constantly changing numbers on the State charts. Yesterday there were 41 people hospitalized with COVID and 24 more suspected COVID hospitalizations. Today there are 37 COVID hospitalizations and zero suspected.
Reproductive Number is 1.06 down from 1.07 yesterday. From Rt-live where you can see Rt for all states. But, again, remember the numbers and dates are a little off, but probably close enough.
"These are up-to-date values for Rt, a key measure of how fast the virus is growing. It’s the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If Rt is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading. Learn More."
Monday, October 19, 2020 - Good signs, but not all good.
Today was the second day in a row with no new deaths or new hospitalizations. October 4 was the last time we had just one day with no deaths or hospitalizations. We have to go back to September 14 and 15 for two days in a row like that. And before that? June 27-30 when there were four days with no deaths or hospitalizations. This might just be a problem of not getting the hospitalization reports in over the weekend. But it's a glimmer of hope.
There were 208/200 new resident cases. It's four days in a row with 200 or more cases. That has never happened before in Alaska. Not so good. The more cases, the more eventual hospitalizations and deaths to follow.
27 reported recoveries and 175 MORE active cases - for another all time high of 5235.
11,012 new tests, one of the highest totals. [10/20/20 -Had typo in chart yesterday. Not sure how many new tests, yesterday. The updated past numbers are totally different from what I documented daily.] We're at 633,723 tests total. Our state population is about 730,000. But this number is NOT how many Alaskans have been tested, but how many tests have been given. Many essential workers get tested over and over again.
The test positivity rate dropped slightly from 4.78 yesterday to 4.6 today. Under 5.0 is good.
The State keeps other numbers I don't keep track of on the chart above. I've been reporting Reproductive Number in the daily reports lately. Today down slightly to 1.07. Under 1 is the goal. We're close.
I haven't mentioned hospital capacity for a while, mainly because it hasn't been an issue. But when I looked today, The hospitals are getting a little more crowded.
57% of adult beds are occupied. There are 550 vacant. That's for everything, not just COVID-19.
68% of adult ICU beds are occupied. There are only 43 left. Again, not just COVID-19 patients.
Ventilators aren't an issue at this point. Only 9% being used with 324 left.
There are 41 COVID-19 patients in hospital beds and 24 more suspected COVID-19 cases.
Sunday, October 18, 2020 - No new deaths or hospitalizations posted. But 220/211 new resident cases. And I was only off by one day as we jumped passed the 5000 mark for active resident cases to 5060.
About 2200 new tests. Test positivity down to 4.78. Reproductive Number is 1.09. These two indicators are staying fairly stable. WHO says positivity should be under 5.0. √. Under 1 for Reproductive is the goal. No √, but we're close. Meanwhile Anchorage got its first snow overnight. But not really enough to be a cleansing. Stay healthy in mind and body.
Saturday, October 17, 2020 - One more death, 7 more hospitalizations, 211/201 new resident cases.
We've had seven deaths reported since Wednesday of this week.
7800 or so tests. Positivity slipped back down below 5.0 to 4.94.
My prediction yesterday of breaking 5000 active cases today was wrong. We're only at 4880, due, it appears to some catching up on recovery numbers - 208. The Reproductive Number is 1.12.
I think about the mythical Alaskan hero* who builds a cabin miles from any other people and spends the winter alone hunting and trapping through -50˚F. And then I think about all the Alaskans who can't be bothered to wear a mask, who can't spend six months without spending an evening in a bar.
*To be clear, that's the hero of many white Alaskans who have moved to the state, not of the Indigenous Alaskans.
Friday, October 16, 2020 - I guess the most significant number today is 5.16, our test positivity level. Under 5.0 is the WHO target.
One new death (up to 66) and 6 new hospitalizations (354 total, 51 current).
226/218 new cases. So, despite 166 new recoveries, our active resident case number is up to another new high - 4878. Tomorrow we'll surely get over 5000. That's just the people who were tested and identified. Your odds of crossing paths with someone who is carrying the virus just keeps increasing. We do have 700,000 people in Alaska so the odds are still low. People buy lottery tickets with much lower odds of winning. In this case it's odds of losing.
There were just about 3200 new tests yesterday. Be wise, wear a mask, and don't host the virus..
Thursday, October 15, 2020 - Another new death. The ADN today said one of yesterday's deaths was a woman in her 20s. It's less common, but it happens.
Ten new hospitalizations.
152/153 new resident cases (and 13 new non-resident cases which is higher than recent numbers.
About 2300 new tests. Test Positivity is up to 4.84. (Under 5 is the CDC's target.) Stay well.
Wednesday, October 14, 2020 - Four new deaths. Seven new hospitalizations. Given the steady increase in new cases and hospitalizations, some deaths eventually result. It's why I get dismayed by all the maskless people out. Though more and more people have their masks on. And I understand that most 25 year olds still feel immortal. And unless they know someone who got really sick or died, the death totals mean no more than Syrian death totals.
Our total active cases is back at an all time high - 4783. Actually Monday's 4640 beat the previous high of 4634 on September 22. This number is a little fuzzy because it requires knowing the number of recovered cases and that's a lower priority for the State, and harder to track. Since September 22 they seem to have made an extra effort to follow up and identify recovered cases because there were days with large (150+) increases, which started to lower the active case numbers. But the new cases took off again last week and our active case numbers are high again.
We had almost 9000 tests yesterday. We broke half a million tests Sunday. Today we're at 517,177. But that's total tests, not total people tested. Many people get tested regularly because of their work.
Test positivity is 4.48. We're still among the states that are below the 5.0 WHO target. You can look at all the states here, but it's a few days behind. And the numbers are seven day averages so they change daily in odd ways.
Tuesday, October 13, 2020 - Down a bit. 141/153 new resident cases. No new deaths, four more new resident hospitalizations. About 8800 tests, positivity crept up a teeny bit more to 4.62. Total active resident cases is 4684.
Monday, October 12, 2020 - It's Indigenous People's Day which is relevant as we're talking about diseases. From a PBS page on the book Guns, Germs, and Steel:
"Within just a few generations, the continents of the Americas were virtually emptied of their native inhabitants – some academics estimate that approximately 20 million people may have died in the years following the European invasion – up to 95% of the population of the Americas.
No medieval force, no matter how bloodthirsty, could have achieved such enormous levels of genocide. Instead, Europeans were aided by a deadly secret weapon they weren't even aware they were carrying: Smallpox."
191/191 new cases. (Yes, the State and I have the same numbers today). We're under 200, but not by much. No new deaths, four new hospitalizations.
Just under 3000 new tests, test positivity up slightly to 4.6.
Total resident active cases is up to 4640 - but I suspect that's high They only reported 13 recoveries and I'm guessing they're too busy tracing new case contacts to work hard on those recovered.
Sunday, October 11, 2020 - An even bigger increase in new resident cases than yesterday - 255/248. Another high. No new deaths, four new hospitalizations. Non-resident total cases is now an even 1000 and resident total cases are pushing 10,000 (9686, 2 more days at the current rate).
Total active cases is 4462. that means just about 44% of all cases since March are active right now.
About 3700 new tests. Test positivity up slightly from yesterday at 4.56.
I used a Twitter comment to ask Dr. Anne Zink about why the seeming large changes that lead to discrepancies between my daily new case numbers and the State's. Her reply:
"there is a constant data verification process as these results get called, electronically sent, faxed, emailed to us and it takes a tremendous amount to work to validate the numbers, resulting in daily fluctuation. you can email data.coronavirus@alaska.gov for more details"
That's pretty much what I've been assuming, but it's good to get verification from the person in charge. And I continue to be impressed with the work she's doing and how responsive she is. And that they are constantly revising numbers as they get new data. I'll continue to keep the original numbers that are posted so if someone in the future ever wants to check how many changes there were, there is this record. And I couldn't keep up with all the changes. In the end, the numbers are pretty much the same anyway.
Saturday, October 10, 2020 - HUGE jump in new resident cases today - 249/230. Total active resident cases also went up a lot - 4236.
No new deaths, 2 new hospitalizations.
Almost 6200 tests, with test positivity down a bit to 4.52. WHO's goal is to be under 5.0. Yesterday was the first (since I've tracked that number) and only day over 5
142 of the new cases were in Anchorage. 30 - Fairbanks. 4 - Juneau. Kenai - 15. Matsu-17 Bethel-4. Nome-2. NWArctic Borough-5. Dillingham-2. Valdez-1. Aleutians East-1. Denali-2. (numbers don't always add up because they may not have locations yet for all the new cases)
Reproductive Number was 1.13.
Friday, October 9, 2020 - From a John's Hopkins COVID page:
"On May 12, 2020 the World Health Organization (WHO) advised governments that before reopening, rates of positivity in testing (ie, out of all tests conducted, how many came back positive for COVID-19) of should remain at 5% or lower for at least 14 days."
As of today, we no longer meet that standard. Our test positivity is listed today as 5.28. It's by far the highest since I started tracking that stat in July. Until today's numbers came in, we were one of 20 states that met that standard. You can see the charts at the JHU link.
No new deaths. Three new hospitalizations. 9182 total cases. 177/170 new cases posted today (reported yesterday). (Non-resident stats are kept separately.)
We have 4012 active cases. (640 more active non-resdient cases.) As I've said before, this number is squishy because tracking 'recovered cases' is not the highest priority, so this number has tended to be a little high. Though they've been more rigorous about tracking down recoveries. 62 were reported today.
About 1900 tests reported, and as I said above, the test positivity has gotten above 5. 5.28. (This is a seven day average, so today's rate should be higher, since the previous days were all well under 5.
Someone had asked me about whether JBER cases were counted with the State numbers or were separate. I asked Dr. Anne Zink that question via Twitter and she replied that the bases are counted in the State numbers.
Thursday, October 8, 2020 -
One new death. Four new hospitalizations. 127/123 new cases. Active cases increasing - to 3897.
Just about 1100 new tests. Positivity up to 4.53. Trend continues in the wrong direction.
Wednesday, October 7, 2020 - One more death (59 total now). Five more hospitalizations (310 total now). 126/116 new cases. 3816 active cases.
Just under 2000 new tests. Test positivity is up to 4.28. Four+ people test positive for every hundred tests.
Tuesday, October 6, 2020 - 1:33pm, no new numbers posted yet.
2:43: Everything's up but number of tests and test positivity. [These were up when I finished posting. Not quite 10,000 new tests. Positivity = 4.09.]
No new deaths. 4 new hospitalizations. Total resident cases = 8752, up 139/137. That's good, only in relation to yesterday. Total active cases = 3729, even with 109 recoveries.
Monday, October 5, 2020 - What can I say. A new high for new resident cases. I'm still baffled by the big gap between my number and the State's. (See October 4 below for more on calculation.)
New resident cases: 208/188. Even though recoveries are up 152, active cases are up by 55 to 3699. That's not a high, but as an article in the ADN explained, and I've suspected, the active case number got inflated because the State did not put a high priority on tracking down the recoveries. And that's not bad, but there should be warnings on the fuzziness of the numbers.
The giant increase (for Alaska) in new resident cases is troubling. So is the test positivity rate which is no 4.19. That means for every hundred people tested, a little more than 4 test positive. That's the highest rate since I started tracking the number July 22.
The virus needs a human host. By staying apart from other humans you reduce the likelihood a virus from you can find another human host. Or a virus from a human host can jump to you. Masks reduce the risk if you're out among people. It's not that hard.
Sunday, October 4, 2020 - New resident cases = 188/142. The difference between my number (188) and the State's number (142) is so large today, that I feel like I need to remind readers how I get my number of new cases.
The State posts total resident cases and new resident cases each day.
My new resident case = "today's total resident cases" - "yesterday's total resident cases"
So for today's number that would be 8405-8217=188
But today, the State's number for new cases = 142. Thus my 188/142. Usually we're off by a three or four. We've never been this far off. I've written this off in the past to the state getting new data (a case turned out to be a resident, not a non-resident, etc.). But I don't know how to explain this one.
The highest previous new resident case number was on July 26. The State and I had the same number then - 186. Did Trump hold a rally here that I missed?
There are no new deaths or hospitalizations posted.
There were about 3500 tests and test positivity rose again - from 3.74 to 3.84. I have to repeat what I said yesterday - that's the highest level since I started tracking that number on July 22.
I haven't posted location information for a while because the ADN does that. But I checked. There were 81 new cases in Anchorage. Anchorage has been above 60 new cases a day for 15 out of the last 16 days. A number have been in the 70s and 80s. Today is NOT the highest. There were 84 new resident cases in Anchorage Sept. 27.
Saturday, October 3, 2020 - One new death. Two new hospitalizations. New resident cases has its highest increase - 142/131 since August 2! (And that's the largest difference between my count and the State's count I can remember.) And while large numbers of recovered cases has been helping the active case list come down lately, today it's gone up 4.
There were about 4000 tests, and the test positivity jumped up from 3.38 to 3.74. That's the highest level since I started tracking it July 22 this year. That means for every 100 tests, 3.37 are positive. Our Reproductive Number is up slightly to 1.12
Comparing us to other states on Johns Hopkins University's COVID tracking site, we're not doing well. This just tracks daily cases. They use color - from dark red (bad) to dark green (good). We're a couple shades below dark red. You can see how we had a tiny bump in April, then went down in May. But since then we've been mostly climbing. There was relative drop and now we're at our highest point. (Note: The JHU site, is interactive. It's worth taking a look.)
Our new cases number Oct 2 (the date for these charts) was 126 (remember these numbers are 'close' but subject to explanation) and the Texas new case number Oct 2 was 5277! So we would seem to be doing fine. EXCEPT, the Texas population is about 42 times the size of Alaska's. But even so, if we multiply the 119 JHU has for Alaska on Oct 2 times 42, we would have 4998 cases - still less than Texas' number.
So when we look at the various ratings (red to green in this case) we have to be careful to understand what they mean. It's really about how much they've dropped from their high (a fair amount) compared to Alaska's drop. And we are at a high. We haven't dropped recently. So, relatively, they are going down and we're going up. That's what the ratings mean. We're still doing fairly well. But we are increasing and should pay attention and take action.
Friday, October 2, 2020 - No new deaths. 4 new hospitalizations. 126/130 new resident cases. Another large jump in recovered - 178. Since there were fewer new cases, the active resident cases dropped by 52 cases to 3529.
Just about 3000 new tests. Positivity nudged up to 3.38. Reproductive Number is 1.11 again. Nothing really new. Going slowly in the wrong direction.
Thursday, October 1, 2020 - One new death and hospitalization each. That's 57 deaths total in Alaska and 294 hospitalizations.
There were 124/127 new resident cases.
250 recoveries were reported today and that lowered our active resident cases to 3581. These numbers are a little unreliable because the State seems to be purging people off the active list (onto the recovered list. That's not suspect, it's just harder to track recoveries and they seem to be catching up.
There were just over 5000 tests reported and test positivity has gone above 3 for the first time since August 7 - It was reported at 3.32. That's the percent of people testing positive yesterday. Also the Reproductive Number inched up to 1.11.
Someone also told me they'd heard that JBER (Joint Base Elmendorf and Richardson) numbers are not part of the State numbers. I don't know if that's true or not, but it makes sense that the military bases do their own testing and tracking. But those folks do shop and spend time off base. Also there are a couple of Anchorage schools on base, so those numbers do matter. I'll try to find out more about that. Stay well.
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