The Numbers Don't Add Up - The National Gaps vs Alaska Gaps

Kamal Harris lost the popular vote to Donald Trump by almost 10 million votes!

How did the election swing so far to Trump?  How much was voter suppression - mail-in ballots sent too late to get back, Russian bomb threats and who knows what other shenanigans?  Too few polling places in Democratic areas?  Suppression of student votes and other forms?  

How is it that Trump, after losing the popular vote to Clinton by 3 million votes 

"[Clinton] outpaced President-elect Donald Trump by almost 2.9 million votes, with 65,844,954 (48.2%) to his 62,979,879 (46.1%), according to revised and certified final election results from all 50 states and the District of Columbia."

and to Biden by 7 million votes, 

"Biden’s popular vote margin over Trump tops 7 million"

now beats Harris by almost 10 million votes?  There were 155 million votes in 2020 but only 145 million this time.  By all accounts there was a record number of people turning out this time.  It would seem some votes are missing.    

The numbers we have would mean the gap between increased by 13 million and by 17 million against Biden.  

It doesn't add up.  I know, racism and misogyny play a role, but not that much.  Especially after all the terrible things we learned about Trump after the 2020 election.  They've been listed by everyone already from Jan 6 through convictions and indictments.  And I'd argue that Harris ran a much better and exciting campaign than Clinton or Biden did.  And it sure looked like there were lots of people voting early and on election day.  

How is it possible for him to have won the popular vote by a huge margin this time when he lost it significantly the two previous races?  

Alaska Totals Don't Match The US Totals

It seems even more suspicious when you look at the Alaska totals.  Alaska is a red state, so the increased Trump numbers should be more exaggerated in Alaska than the US total which includes blue states and red states.  But it isn't.  The opposite.  

Harris did better than Clinton, and not quite as well as Biden in Alaska.  

Trump beat Clinton by 47,000 votes in Alaska in 2016..  

Alaska Div of Elections

Trump beat Biden by 36,000 votes in Alaska.  

Alaska Div of Elections    xxx

  

But Trump only beat Harris by 39,000 votes this time.  3000 votes more than Biden lost by, but 8,000 votes fewer than Clinton lost by in Alaska.  

Alaska Div of Elections

Alaska's a red state.  If the number were consistent with the Lower 48 numbers, she should have lost by a lot more than Biden and Clinton lost by.  But her numbers were better than Clinton's.  

So my dilemma is how to connect the dots in a way that makes sense.  Not to make up some wild story, but to offer a plausible hypothesis or two that could be tested by people with better math skills and better data analysis skills and maybe some ability to uncover Russian (or others) tampering with out election computer systems. 

One could argue that misogyny and racism gave Trump more votes in the Lower 48, but then why not have a similar change in Alaska?  We have among the highest statistics for murdered and raped women.  

Or you could blame it on the economy or immigration and border issues.  But whatever policy issues you might raise, people in Alaska have as much access as Lower 48 voters to Fox News and odd internet sites that supported Trump with relentless lies. 

What makes sense to me is someone tinkered with the computers.  Or the ballots.  That's not that far fetched.  Trump, before the election repeatedly said if he lost it would be because of election rigging.  

Trump always projects his own behavior onto others. He's a criminal and rapist who said the Haitian refugees were criminals and rapists.  If the Guinness Book of Records had a category on liars, Trump would certainly be in the top five if not the winner.  And he calls anyone who puts him in a bad light a liar.  He accuses others of his own behaviors.  

He told us over and over that the elections were rigged.  Does that mean he was rigging them?  Not conclusively, but it's a clue that fits the pattern.  Just need some serious investigation of this.  Just as Trump would have demanded had he lost.  To be sure.  

Comparing the national gaps between Trump and his three presidential opponents and comparing them to the Alaska gaps raises real questions for me.  

I'm not saying it happened, but I'm saying there are serious inconsistencies that require some explanation.  

I'm sure the Trump mafia are laughing at how easy it was to get Harris to concede.  They knew she would play by the traditional rules that they have flouted since . . . always.  

Joe Biden, you've got three months to try out your Supreme Court granted immunity.  I'm not calling for you to blow up Mar-A-Lago,  but I'd like to see you push some limits to find out more about the Russian Trump election interference and how the numbers got so out of whack.  And it might show us that the Supreme Court has more comfort with Trump transgressions than Biden transgressions.  If it does, it might be forced to put more restrictions on Trump's immunity.  

Oh, and maybe look into the medical records of Trump's ear.  We've essentially heard nothing.  If he'd really been hit in ear, we'd have heard the doctors explaining it in detail and Trump would be showing off the scar.  

 

The Apprentıce - A Good Way To Understand Trump's Behavior

 We saw the film about Roy Cohn yesterday afternoon.  Of course, it also is about Donald Trump - the Apprentice in the film title.

Here's the LA Times review.  It also tells the story of how it was feared the film would not be publicly shown before the election.  But, alas, it appears it was in Anchorage - at just about every theater, all day, and now it's gone.  It would serve the public much better to have it show at different theaters different weeks, so that word of mouth could get out.  Since the Anchorage Daily News no longer lists or reviews movies, you pretty much have to go look on line and seek out movies, rather than get reminders while you're reading the newspaper.  

I started posting about Roy Cohn back in 2016, and it wasn't flattering.

June 19, 2016:  

". . . attack, counterattack and never apologize."  In the movie these are edited to Cohn's and Trump's three rules:   

1. Attack, Attack Attack
2. Admit nothing, Deny everything
3. No matter what happens, you claim victory and never admit defeat

You can hear Cohn (actor Jeremy Strong) list them in this trailer.  

 

June 24, 2016

"Roy Cohn was one of the most loathsome characters in American history, so why did he have so many influential friends?"

There really isn't much in the movie that adds to those eight year old posts.  

But seeing it today, in hindsight, you recognize many characteristics of Trump.  

Listen to any time he talks.  He follows Cohn's rules.  He attacks.  He never admits anything.  He denies everything.  And he claims victory despite what really happened.  (Did you know he totally defeated Harris in their debate?)

He doesn't answer questions that would reflect negatively on him.  Instead he changes the subject and/or attacks one or more of his current perceived enemies. He lies about what they've done, and calls them demeaning names.  

He never apologizes.  Ever.  

Listen for these three every time he talks.  

What most struck me about the movie was, what I'll call grittiness.  It's well edited, but it's often dark and there's a lot of hand held camera.  But it moves right along.  

Again, because I researched Cohn back in 2016 and did those two posts listed above, there isn't much in the film I didn't know and a lot I knew that was slightly touched on in the movie.  For instance, Cohen mentions (while telling Trump he's crazy to get married) that he almost got married to Barbara Walters until he realized she'd own half of what he owned.  That marriage would only be a way to cover his homosexuality.  But the movie doesn't tell you, Barbara Walters stayed loyal to him because he helped get a warrant for her father dismissed.  

But what did strike me as I watched the movie, was how Cohn, in two instances, helps Trump by going through his vast collection of tapes (he recorded all the rooms in his house when he had parties), he was able to get two rulings against Trump changed, by black mailing the decision makers with his tapes.  

I've speculated at times about Trump having dirt on most GOP members of Congress which keeps them supporting him, despite earlier denunciations of Trump.  Think of Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio, just to name three.  The movie reinforces that belief.  I wouldn't even be surprised if Russian intelligence hasn't helped him gather such compromising evidence.  

I was hoping to get this up to encourage folks to see the film.  Unfortunately that doesn't see likely for folks in Anchorage, but I'd hope in other places the film will play longer.  

I'd note that at the end of September, we let our Netflix subscription lapse.  I was hoping that would give me more time to read and blog, but so far that hasn't happened that way.  My daily hour at my local elementary school, and preparation for it, takes up a lot of time, but is very gratifying.  The teacher said the other day that my guy is doing much better in class.  I decided that I need to have him work on reading in Spanish.  He can't do that fluently, but he can slowly, and with help, work out the words.  And I can feel his sense of achievement when he gets the word.  In English, he doesn't know enough words to get that satisfaction.  And my hope is that when he can read more fluently in Spanish, English will be easier to tackle.  But he does have a fair passive English vocabulary - that is, he understands things I ask him to do.  And just hearing me repeat the same kinds of questions and instructions in English everyday drills those words and phrases in.  

My Thoughts On Pro Publica And ADN Summary Of The Bronson Corruption

[NOTE:  This post highlights the ProPublica/ADN report on the Bronson administration.  I've added my own reactions in blue.]

For those in a hurry, summary of  points I make:

1.  Baker, as a private contractor, was NOT a client of the Municipal Attorney and thus the attorney saying he can't discuss the case because of that is incorrect.  And if he was a client of the attorney, then t was more inappropriate as part of the Mayor's team to approach the Attorney.

2.  Assembly should make it illegal for the administration to remove the indemnity clause in contracts without Assembly approval, regardless the value of the contract.  

3.  Media have to do a better job of getting past the facades of politicians (and others in power) to get the public the real scoop on who these people are and what they do.  Local media need to give reporters focused beats and incentives to stay on them to develop reliable contacts who will give them tips.  

Image from the ProPublica/ADN article

ProPublica and the ADN published a long article that pulled together many of the events that have happened in the Dave Bronson administration.  It's worth reading. 

It didn't cover all details, but focused on Larry Baker and the conflicts he had over the Golden Lion because he and other Bronson owners lived nearby.  I hadn't heard about the DOTPF memo being mischaracterized to make it look like the state would demolish the Golden Lion.  It discuss Baker's younger partner Brandon Spoerhase and his attempts to get the Muni Attorney to drop all charges against Spoerhase for violating a restraining order against a woman working in the Mayor's office.  

The article mentions that the mayor did not hire Baker as a Muni employee, but skirted the need for Assembly approval by hiring him as a contractor with three contracts at $29,500 - just below the $30,000 threshold that would require Assembly approval.  The contracts also gave Baker immunity from prosecution, meaning the Municipality would be on the hook for problems he caused.  

They asked then Municipal Attorney Peter Bergt about Baker's interference:

"Bergt declined to say whether Baker pressured him to drop or reduce the city charges against Spoerhase, citing concerns that he could break legal rules protecting confidential communications between attorneys and clients. . .

 “I took very seriously my ethical obligation to my client — the Municipality of Anchorage — and always acted in its best interest.”

My thought is that if Baker as a private contractor, the he wasn't Bergt's client.  The Muni, not a contractor is the client.  So there shouldn't be any attorney client privilege here.  [Of course I'm not an attorney so I'm sure some or even most lawyers might say I'm wrong. ]

[OK.  I've spoken to an attorney friend who first said that Baker, as a private citizen, has the right to contact the Municipal Attorney and try to point out legal reasons why he charges should be dropped.  But, I asked, he's the Mayor's policy advisor, so there's a conflict of interest.  In that case there may be an ethical problem, but probably not a legal one.  Then I went on to read the quotes above.  Then my attorney jumped and said, that as a private contractor coming in to discuss his business partner's charges, he's absolutely NOT a client of the Municipal Attorney.  And if the Attorney thinks he is his client, then there are bigger barriers to him interfering with this case.]

But I would also recommend that the Assembly pass a law that says a contractor cannot have the indemnity clause removed without approval from the Assembly, regardless the dollar amount of the contract..  

The article also quotes Assembly member Quinn-Davis (who also acted as temporary Mayor) about Baker and she responded.  

“Unlike Bronson, he knows he needs to get along with people and relationships matter,” said Assembly member Austin Quinn-Davidson, who filled in as mayor for several months after Berkowitz resigned.

“I like him,” she said of Baker. “I think he relies on that, which is smart. People sort of trusting him or liking him as a person to get things done.”

Getting along with people is a very useful skill.  My thought is how many people use this skill to mask some not so nice behavior as Baker did?  How many people in positions of power do dastardly deeds protected by a nice guy image?  Or other images that suggest competence - clothing, education, purported experience.  This is a call to media and political opponents to do a better job learning and then alerting the world about important background information about the people running for office and serving as corporate executives.  George Santos is only the most egregious example of the media not doing their job in this area.  Except for the North Shore Leader. which wasn't able to get the story a wider audience.  

While we have watched quite a bit of this play out over the last year and a half, we we lacked key details that were revealed by Amy Demoboski when she was fired and sent a nine page letter of accusations.  As a conservative Assembly member who moved over to serve as Bronson's city manager, she had the insider's view of what was happening and because she's an ideological ally of the mayor, her accusations have more weight.  

I mention this because I think 'nice' guys are protected by insiders generally not exposing them as Demboski has done.  

This means we really do need better ways to keep our officials accountable and keep government as transparent as possible.  When local reporters have long term assignments, they have time to build up networks of insiders who give them tips.  Let's hope we can get media outlets to keep reporters on beats long enough to develop these networks.  I'd like to thank ProPublica which is helping the ADN do more long term coverage of major issues.  

One of the issues the article doesn't cover is the crowd of abusive Assembly attendees who made anti-Semitic and anti-LGBTQ attacks in opposition to both COVID regulations and the Assembly's homeless actions.  They were loud and and worked to intimidate Assembly members and the public who did not support their politics.  These were basically stirred up and supported by the group of Geneva Woods neighbors - including Larry Baker - who were opposed to using the Golden Lion Hotel for an addiction center.  

Afghan Corruption Got Lots Of Help From US

[I'm just writing notes today.  Consider this jotting down thoughts before other things interfere.]

Lots of commentators are listing corruption in the Afghan government and army as one of the major causes for the rapid collapse of the government.  

Westerners seem to wear one-way glasses when it come seeing to corruption.  "Poor" "third world" countries are seen as rife with corruption compared to Western countries.  

I would argue it's like alcoholism among the homeless and poor and among the middle and upper classes.  Homeless alcoholics are drunk in public while people with more money do a better job of hiding their alcoholism.  

I just want to point out that Western corruption in Afghanistan probably dwarfed local corruption.  

Some examples:

From a SIGAR (Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction.)

"Gallery of Greed

 U.S. reconstruction activities in Afghanistan, or any other conflict zone, face the constant threat of criminal conspiracies among personnel who rotate in and out of theater, infecting their successors with the virus of corruption.

 Over the past five years, SIGAR’s Investigations Directorate has uncovered and detailed a classic example of this threat—an extended, widespread, and intricate pattern of criminality involving U.S. military personnel and Afghan contractors at the Humanitarian Assistance Yard (the Yard) at Bagram Airfield near Kabul, Afghanistan.

 In June 2012, SIGAR investigators following leads uncovered an unusual pattern of suspect criminal activity at the Yard. They found traces of criminal activity affecting inventories, accounting, issuance of supplies, payments, and contract oversight at the Yard, which serves as a storage-and-distribution facility for millions of dollars’ worth of clothing, food, school supplies, and other items purchased from local Afghan vendors. U.S. military commanders provided those supplies to displaced Afghans as part of the Commander’s Emergency Response Program (CERP) to meet urgent humanitarian relief needs for the Afghan people."

From The Marketplace:

"At just short of 20 years, the conflict in Afghanistan was America’s longest war. More than 2,000 U.S. service members were killed there. The U.S. spent billions over the years to sustain its troops in Afghanistan and hired military contractors to feed and house them.

Those contractors profited the most from the war, but those systems can lead to fraud and waste. The U.S. military relied on contractors like KBR and DynCorp International for all sorts of things in Afghanistan.

“For cooking, for driving, for delivering supplies — they were used across the board,” said Linda Bilmes, who teaches public policy at Harvard. She said that, sometimes, the Pentagon had so-called no-cost deals with contractors. Whatever a project cost, the government would pay.

“The whole system was set up in a way to enable contractors to rip off the government,” she said."

From the Daily Beast:

"America has spent at least $2.3 trillion in Afghanistan, but very few know that because the U.S. relied upon a complex ecosystem of defense contractors, belt-way banditry, and aid contractors. Of the 10-20 percent of contracts that remained in the country, the U.S. rarely cared about the efficacy of the initiative. While corruption is rife within Afghanistan’s government, the Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction repeatedly alleged bewildering corruption by American firms and individuals working in Afghanistan. In many cases, American firms even defrauded Afghans. A military member of the International Security Assistance Force explained to Carlotta Gall: 'Without being too dramatic, American contractors are contributing to fueling the insurgency.'”

Here's a Treasury official, reported in the Washington Post,  questioning an American consultant working with Kabul Bank for three years about the bank:

"A second unnamed Treasury Department official told government interviewers that soon after he arrived in Afghanistan in the summer of 2010, he met with an American who had been working on contract as a consultant to Afghanistan’s central bank for at least three years. The U.S. official wanted to know more about Kabul Bank, which unknown to both of them was on the verge of failure.

“We had an hour-long conversation,”  the official said. 'I asked him, do you think this is a financially sound bank? He said, ‘Yes.’ And literally 30 days afterward, the whole house of cards came down. This was one of the biggest misses in my career. A $1 billion bank collapsed, and the U.S. adviser swore to me it was financially sound.'”

You know this consultant was making a ton of money plus expenses that probably were well above the average US income.   His job, it would seem, was a scam itself.  

This shouldn't come as a shock to anyone.  No giant expenditures happen in Washington unless there are lobbyists pushing hard for it.  And war lobbyists are among the most effective.

Afghan citizens had to choose a path that would keep them safe from the Taliban and from the US backed government.  Supporting the government made them targets for the Taliban.  Supporting the Taliban made the targets for the government and the US.  For many of them, their petty acts of what we would call corruption, was how they managed to feed their families and stay alive.  

For American contractors it was a way to make huge profits.  

And is there anything more corrupt than the Sackler family working a deal in Bankruptcy Court to make it impossible for them or many other individuals or companies to be prosecuted for all the opioid deaths they caused?  Just because they can pay $4 billion and still have more than that left over?  That's the same kind of deal Jeffrey Epstein worked out with the Alexander Acosta, who then became Trump's Secretary of Labor.