Showing posts with label Corona. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Corona. Show all posts

Sunday, August 01, 2021

Not Learning From History. Not Knowing Statistics

 The Anchorage Daily News headline today:



"Sicker and younger:  Unvaccinated people drive new trend"

I couldn't help but mentally edit  Pastor Martin Niemöller's famous quote about the Nazi's victims.

First they [it] came for the socialists [nursing home residents], and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.[a nursing home resident]
Then they [it] came for the trade unionists, [other seniors and immuno-compromised] and I did not speak out— because I was not a trade unionist.  [a senior or immune-compromised]
Then they [it] came for the Jews,[unvaccinated] and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew. young
Then they [it] came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.

A major problem driving all this is STATISTICAL IGNORANCE.  People simply don't understand statistics, so terms like 'flattening the curve' or 'cases per 100,000' don't really mean anything.  The graphs are just pictures of curves and straight lines.  

And newspaper headlines and Tweets don't help.  Either the writers and editors don't understand statistics or they are intentionally trying to mislead.  (Sure, it's rarely either/or, they might just be rushing and not thinking)



Do I need to explain these Tweets?  Yeah, I guess, some folks won't get this.  

The original tweet (Ken Dilanian) highlights that 125,000 fully vaccinated Americans tested positive for COVID.  There's no mention of: 
  1. what the time period was
  2. how many of them were asymptomatic
  3. how many had minor symptoms
  4. how many were hospitalize
  5. how many needed a ventilator
  6. how many died
And Derek Willis also points out that if you realize that this was .08 percent of all the 164 million people who have been vaccinated, the amazing effectiveness of the vaccines are highlighted instead of making it sound like the vaccinations are ineffective.  

One last thing that I've mentioned before, but isn't talked about enough.  The longer the virus is able to find refuge in human hosts, the more potentially deadlier and more contagious variants can evolve.  (And you have to understand and believe in evolution to understand that point.)  So, the more people who are vaccinated (locally, but also world wide, cause people travel and virus hitchhike on those travelers) the fewer refuges there are for virus to mutate.  


It seems to me we're all in a leaky boat together in the ocean.  The water is up to our ankles.  A small but vocal group of the passengers want to drill holes in the bottom of the boat to let the water drain out.  Those are the anti-maskers and the anti-vaxxers.  


Wednesday, July 29, 2020

Living In A Pandemic Is A Little Like Living Abroad

When you live in a different country you have to adjust to different ways of doing things.  I don't mean a two week vacation and staying in hotels, I mean spending a much longer period, say a year or more in a different culture.  Learning the local language and living and working with people of that country.  Of course, some of these issues arise on a shorter visit, like how do you get food?  How does the money relate to your home currency?  

Since March, we had to start to figure out what restaurants and stores were open and how to get food safely.  It didn't take too long to find restaurants that delivered or how to order groceries online for delivery or pickup.  But shopping on the grocery apps is a lot different from pushing a cart through the store.    

How are the rules different from where you came from?  We're still working on this.  Masks?  Well, sure of course.  But where are masks enforced?  Biking, I tend to be the only one who has a mask ready to pull up when someone is approaching.  And some people forget to keep their distance.   For those still flying, there are all sorts of changes.  What about money?  Do you want to exchange cash?  And I've never washed my hands this much.  

Finding compatible friends is another tricky thing.  How strict are your family and friends about masks and distancing and attending events?  Which friends might expose you to the virus?  There's the awkward discussions as you start discovering which of your friends practice the same level of safety that you do.  And your friends can surprise you by taking more risks or being much more careful than you expected.  

After the first month or so the initial shock wears off a bit, but what you thought you knew may change and you have to adjust.  What good are masks?  Well it appears the early advice was intended to keep people from buying masks that medical workers needed, and no one really knew enough to know if they also protected the wearer or just those around the wearer.  The way health experts are learning about the virus - how it travels, who it impacts, how to treat it - that's what happens to expats living abroad.  Some things you learn are helpful, some things you learn turn out to be wrong.  

Language hasn't been an issue.  More like going to another (in my case) English speaking country.  Some words have different meanings, others are new ones you need to learn, but most of the basics are the same.  

One of the most important benefits of living abroad is the perspective you get as you compare what you're experiencing to what things were like back home.  At first there's a tendency to find the differences annoying, but after a while, you start to see that back home doesn't always do things as well as you thought.  The forced changes make you appreciate what the new country has that you don't have back home, or you learn that some things are actually easier, or people friendlier, or have more leisure than people back home.  

In the US, the worst president ever happened to be in office when the pandemic arrived and that made things far worse than they had to be.  The lies and misinformation, as time passed, made the pandemic worse and I believe the pandemic should get credit for the crowds who have been out protesting for Black Lives.  Many people had been stuck at home for a month when George Floyd was killed, and many were out of work or out of school, so they had the time to demonstrate and the need to get out and voice their frustration.  


So people are also discovering that government services like public health, need to be based on scientists and the politicians have to defer to the experts.  We're seeing in the US what happens when the federal government fails miserably.  For hundreds of thousands of people, that lesson will come too late, because they have been extremely ill or have buried loved ones. Or were buried.  How many will learn that there is a big difference between the politicians and the career civil servants?  

In the field of public administration we often say that no one notices government until things go wrong.  Those things that government provides, that people take for granted, tend to be invisible until the system is broken - public health, for instance.  Experts tend to agree that public health projects like clean water systems and sanitary sewage systems have saved far more lives than all the miracle drugs and glitzy modern surgeries.   

The failure of the Trump administration to see the danger and take appropriate action has proven that point.  People have begun to appreciate the expertise of public health officials and the importance of basing decisions on science rather than perceived political impacts.  

But bad government has also been exposed by George Floyd's death - on top of all the other blacks killed by police and shared on social media.  In this case the pandemic has also helped white US see the problems with police that people of color have known all along. 

One thing that's different between the pandemic and travel abroad, is that when you are living in other cultures you generally have a good idea of how long the adventure will be.  Not so with this pandemic.  At first people were saying the pandemic would be a couple of months, but now it's clearly going to continue well into next year.  So we'll have plenty of time to ponder what parts of normal we want to return to and what new normals we want to create.

Another big difference is that when you live abroad, you experience all the newness and the mental adjustments as an individual.   When you get back your family and friends have no clue that your head has changed dramatically.  For vets this is often a very traumatic experience.  People don't get it and often they can't or won't try to explain it.   

This pandemic is something people are experiencing simultaneously around the world.  We're all going through this.  I'm hoping that that will make it easier to start making 'normal' more equitable, more sustainable,  kinder, and livable.    

Wednesday, April 01, 2020

Alaska COVID-19 Count - April 1, 2020 - New Cases = 0; New Deaths=0; New Hospitalizations =0

The number of new cases is NOT going up at an ever increasing rate.  At least for now.  That's good.  No new deaths in four days.  No new hospitalizations since yesterday.



My calendar chart, we're in April now.


CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH/APRIL 2020
MondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturdaySunday
new/totalhos=hospital

12th  = 0/013th = 1/114th = 0/115th = 0/1
16th = 0/117th = 2/318th = 3/619th = 3/920th = 3/1221st= 2/1422nd= 8/22
23rd=14/3624th =6/42
1 hos 1 dead
25th = 17/59
3 hos 1 dead
26th = 10/69
3 hos 1 dead
27th =16/89
5 hos 2 dead
28th = 13/102
6 hos 2 dead
29th=12/114
7 hos  3 dead
30th=5/119
7 hos 3 dead
31st= 14/133
9 hos 3 dead





April 2020

1st=  10/143
9 hos 3 dead




















Hospital and dead figures are total to date, not new on that date






State's Charts from their website.

 The chart above gives a visual sense of where the positive cases are, but as more days are added it seems to get less and less useful, since the days get further and further from the Y axis and it's harder to calculate how many.  And each color is one lump, so you can't count that way.

Of course those details are in the chart below.  What the chart above adds is time, but the time is ambiguous - "date of onset, diagnosis, or report - whichever is earlier."  So, the announcements of 14 new positive cases, 1 new hospitalization, and one new death on March 29, that date has nothing in the chart above.









There were 419 new tests.  Remember, the last date for all these charts was yesterday.

Finally, my other chart.



Dr. Zink said that tomorrow the State would put up some different ways of presenting this information.  Sounds good.





Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Alaska COVID-19 Count Tuesday, March 31, 2020 - New Cases = 14, New Deaths =0, New Hospitalizations = 2

Increase of 14 to 133 total positive cases.
No increase in dead - still 3.
Two more hospitalized to a total of 9

Based on the press conference - the positive case reported by BP on the North Slope was someone from out of state.  So that person's case is NOT counted in Alaska, but in the state they comes from.


My Calendar Chart (I have to figure out how I'm going to do April)

CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH 2020
MondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturdaySunday
new/totalhos=hospital

12th  = 0/013th = 1/114th = 0/115th = 0/1
16th = 0/117th = 2/318th = 3/619th = 3/920th = 3/1221st= 2/1422nd= 8/22
23rd=14/3624th =6/42
1 hos 1 dead
25th = 17/59
3 hos 1 dead
26th = 10/69
3 hos 1 dead
27th =16/89
5 hos 2 dead
28th = 13/102
6 hos 2 dead
29th=12/114
7 hos  3 dead
30th=5/119
7 hos 3 dead
31st= 14/133
9 hos 3 dead
Hospital and dead figures are total to date, not new on that date





State's Charts today:







The Municipality has just under half the positive cases - 65 out of 133.

And there were the most tests reported today than any other day up to today - 890 - most (645) of which were done by commercial labs.


My overall chart:




















Monday, March 30, 2020

Alaska COVID-19 Count Monday March 30, 2020 - New Cases = 5, New Deaths =0, New Hospitalizations =0

My Calendar chart of new cases:

CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH 2020
MondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturdaySunday
new/totalhos=hospital

12th  = 0/013th = 1/114th = 0/115th = 0/1
16th = 0/117th = 2/318th = 3/619th = 3/920th = 3/1221st= 2/1422nd= 8/22
23rd=14/3624th =6/42
1 hos 1 dead
25th = 17/59
3 hos 1 dead
26th = 10/69
3 hos 1 dead
27th =16/89
5 hos 2 dead
28th = 13/102
6 hos 2 dead
29th=12/114
6 hos  3 dead
30th= 5/119
6 hos  3 dead








We had the fewest new cases since March 21.  That's good.  Though we also had fewer new tests (59).  It would be nice if we could start leveling off and having fewer new positive cases.  But I'm not holding my breath.  Not yet.

State Charts



While I've been complaining about the lack of numbers, they've been down there in that line right above.  But since I've been getting screenshots, that link doesn't work.  So I checked it today and it downloads a table with all from March  to the present that looks like this (not enough room to put the whole thing, but if you're interested you can go to the link below.

ASPHL is Alaska State Public Health Lab



And here's my chart, updated for today.  And with the link above, I was able to get exact numbers to correct what I had for March 26.  














Sunday, March 29, 2020

Sunday March 29, 2020 Alaska COVID-19 Report - 1 New Death to 3, 1 New Hospitalization to 7, 12 New Cases to 114

Today's new State report is up.  First, here's my calendar summary.

CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH 2020
MondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturdaySunday
new/totalhos=hospital

12th  = 0/013th = 1/114th = 0/115th = 0/1
16th = 0/117th = 2/318th = 3/619th = 3/920th = 3/1221st= 2/1422nd= 8/22
23rd=14/3624th =6/42
1 hos 1 dead
25th = 17/59
3 hos 1 dead
26th = 10/69
3 hos 1 dead
27th =16/89
5 hos 2 dead
28th = 13/102
6 hos 2 dead
29th=12/114
7 hos  3 dead







We have 12 new cases for a total of 114 confirmed cases of COVID-19.

We also have one more death since yesterday, for a total of 3.  

We have one more hospitalized, for a total of 7.





 The last few days the number of tests has been going up and down fairly sharply.  Not sure why.  Again, not sure if the numbers reflect the number of tests on a particular day, or tests reported to the state on a particular day.  Or even whether they are tests given or tests results.  Or whether it could mean any of those.


My chart tracking cases over time.  I've been making changes that reflect changes in the data offered by the state.  The chart immediately above used to just be negative cases.  One can still calculate the negative tests by subtracting total tests on a day from new confirmed cases.  But you can tell if they are from the State labs or private labs.  That info might be meaningful (not sure) but I changed the chart because the original info was no longer available.
Today I've added four new columns to show info that started showing up March 24 - deaths and hospitalizations.





Charts Are Helpful, But Be Careful

I'm playing with the charting abilities of Numbers (Mac's Excel).  It's really easy to make charts, even if you have no idea what they mean.  So let's look at two charts I made to help you see how using different scales affect how good or bad things look.

First - a chart with cumulative cases and cumulative deaths over time in Alaska.


This scale seems reasonably useful for total cases (114), but the scale  really hard to see the deaths (3).

I also made a chart of just the deaths.  It shows how radically different it looks with a different scale.


Here, the curve for deaths looks a lot like the curve for cases.  You'll note there were 3 days with one death before the second death.  Then two days before the third death.  And there was a long lag time (14 days) from the first reported case to the first reported death.  So we can assume that deaths from earlier confirmed cases are going to start leading to a quicker increase - but at a much lower rate - of deaths.  But keep your skepticism handy since I'm treading beyond what I have a firm understanding of.

The State posted this additional information:

"The Alaska Department of Health and Social Services (DHSS) today announced 12 new cases of COVID-19 in six  Alaska communities – Anchorage (4), Eagle River (1), Fairbanks (4), North Pole (1), Juneau (1) and Ketchikan (1).
DHSS also reported the third death of an Alaskan from COVID-19. The individual was a 73-year-old Anchorage resident. The patient was tested on March 23 and admitted to an Anchorage hospital and passed away on the evening of March 28.
Five of the new cases are older adults (60+); two are adults aged 30-59; four are younger adults aged 19-29 and one is under 18.  Six are female and six are male. Six of the cases are close contacts of previously diagnosed cases; one is travel-related and five are still under investigation.
So far the communities in Alaska that have had laboratory-confirmed cases include Anchorage (including JBER), Eagle River/Chugiak, Girdwood, Fairbanks, North Pole, Homer, Juneau, Ketchikan, Palmer, Seward, Soldotna and Sterling."

US Senate candidate Al Gross, an orthopedic surgeon, held a large phone question and answer session on the Corona Virus today.  His wife, a pediatrician, also answered some of the questions.  He sounded a little stiff in the opening, but once he started answering questions he seemed more relaxed.


For all the posts on the state reports click on the tag/label Alaska COVID-19 Count.

Friday, March 27, 2020

Alaska COVID-19 Case Counts For Thursday March 27


Yesterday's State report showed us UP 10 new cases (less than the day before) to a total of 69.



CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH 2020
MondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturdaySunday
new/total


12th  = 0/013th = 1/114th = 0/115th = 0/1
16th = 0/117th = 2/318th = 3/619th = 3/920th = 3/1221st= 2/1422nd= 8/22
23rd=14/3624th =6/42
1 hos 1 dead
25th = 17/59
3 hos 1 dead
26th = 10/69
3 hos 1 dead












Here are the charts the State put up.


They've added to the description "cases are assigned by date of onset, diagnosis, or report - whichever is earliest..."   Previously these charts were 'date of onset.'  So, again, it seems to me, there is no consistent way to figure out the rate of increase of cases  from this chart, even though it is on a timeline, because the numbers might mean different things and we aren't told why any given box is assigned the date it has.  Or, if a given box on the chart today might be moved to a different date tomorrow.  Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I understand what that says.  This chart does give a visual sense of the dominance of Anchorage cases.  And the graphs below give us another chronological look of tests, but not of confirmed cases.




Is Ketchikan the second highest community (11) because the person who brought it into the community saw so many people?  Because it was easier to track who he saw?  Or because a larger proportion of people were tested?


1388 people have been tested according to the top chart.  While they attach numbers to the cumulative chart, I don't know why they don't attach numbers to the daily chart.  It would be much easier to figure out the numbers.  As it is, we have to subtract yesterday's cumulative from today's to figure out a more precise number of those tested.  But then we don't know if these numbers represent actual tests on a given day, or whether these are when the tests are reported to the State.


MY CHART:  I've reformatted the chart because I was tracking data the State no longer provided.  I hope this works better.