Having lived a fairly long time, gives me the advantage of knowing some history, not from books, but from living through it. What's there to say that hasn't already been said? Again and again. Let me try to offer some thoughts I haven't seen often, or at all.
A. People keep saying this is the biggest Congressional turnover since 1974. I watched/listened to the Watergate hearings and voted in 1974. It was a big deal. And there were a bunch of new laws against corruption in the new Congress. People said the Republicans were obliterated.
But Ronald Reagan won in a landslide in 1980, just six years later. (Reagan was a Republican for the younger readers.)
So how was this different from 1974?
1. The US was divided over the Vietnam war, but not over democracy. And issues like abortion didn't separate the parties like they do now. Roe v. Wade had been decided in 1973 and there wasn't the outcry there was when the ban on abortion ended. Nixon had made no public statement on the decision. Here's an NPR piece from 2009 when the Nixon White House tape that mentioned abortion was finally released.
Both Republicans and Democrats were part of the Watergate Hearings, and while Republicans spoke up in defense of Nixon, they worked diligently and cordially with the Democrats. And they weren't the sycophants today's GOP are with Trump.
2. The 1974 blowout election was a reaction to the fact that the President had lied. (Can you imagine that?!) When the Watergate committee learned the White House secretly recorded all the conversations in the Oval Office, and finally got the tapes (the Supreme Court did not side with the president that the tapes were confidential), it was clear that the president had lied to the public, and the Republicans told him he would be impeached and convicted if he didn't resign.
The election was based on shock that the president had made a bald faced lie about not being involved in the Watergate burglary (of Democratic headquarters). Then, when the tapes were played, hearing him discuss how to hide his involvement. That was too much for most people. Sounds quaint doesn't it?
3. The media was respected and they took their job as journalists seriously. They had their biases (they really didn't understand the seriousness of racial discrimination for the most part, for example). There was universal outrage over the president's actions - the evening news was unified in its condemnation - and the public voted overwhelmingly for Democrats.
4. No one questioned the validity of the elections. Sure, there were local exceptions like in Daley's Chicago, but generally, the elections were assumed to be fair. Today, we have a president who has challenged every election except the two he won. He even fomented an insurrection to overturn the 2020 election. And he worked hard to make it difficult for Democrats to win. He got Texas and other states to have mid-decade redistricting to gerrymander more Republican seats. He pushed the (unsuccessful) SAVE Act to impose restrictions of voters. Red states closed polling places on college campuses where younger, more Democratic voters, could easily vote. He demanded that states turn over their voter registration lists.
While there might have been remnants of Jim Crow voting restrictions in the South, for the most part, in 1974, people trusted the integrity of voting. People used paper ballots that were counted by hand.
I was amazed at how smoothly the elections went this year. Despite all the attempts to crush Democratic voters, the Trump administration was challenged relentlessly and routinely lost in court. And, like most bullies, in the end, Trump seemed to back down. He said he wouldn't contest the elections.
From The Guardian:
"Trump did something almost unprecedented [for Trump]: he accepted the results. Trump said he was “absolutely willing” to accept the outcome and looked forward to working with Democrats."
5. Today I see a mass movement that opposes Trump. Organizations have recruited ordinary citizens whose main form of political activity had been voting. Around the country groups of citizens What's there to say that hasn't already been said? Again and again.coming together for No Kings rallies, In Alaska, organizations like Stand Up Alaska have been relentlessly organizing 'normal' people to become activists, and this has been happening throughout the country. These are people who are putting up signs at overpasses and busy intersections, writing letters to their members of Congress and postcards to voters. Registering people to vote, calling voters, knocking on doors. Stuff only the hard core used to do.
That wasn't what happened in 1974. But there was another kind of activism - the anti-War movement, driven to a large degree by young men, their girlfriends, and parents who didn't want to be drafted to go fight a war they didn't support in Vietnam. The focus was on stopping the war, more than getting people to vote. Though, of course, the voting for candidates who opposed the war followed.
Conclusions
1. This election changes some things, but without results from the Democratic Congress in the next two years, the 2028 election could be another shock.
And without the many local groups of activists continuing the fight for Democracy and adding more people to the fight, the gains of this election could start to dissolve. Democrats could lose their power in Congress - a smaller majority or even lose it altogether. Though I suspect the country won't be ready for another Republican in 2028.
2. The wealthy right-wing conservatives who worked for 40 years to get a strongly pro-business, pro-wealth Supreme Court and to elect a Trump, are not going to just quit. The people who wrote up Project 2024 are not going to stop plotting. And the Tech billionaires still want to control what happens in the world and they'll just get smarter than Elon when it comes to buying elections.
3. Different people voted blue for different reasons. Was it prices? If they don't go down, the Democrats might go down. Was it ICE? Will abolishing ICE eliminate the reason these people voted blue? Was it corruption? If the Dems don't get convictions, will they lose? Was it data centers? Can the Dems stop them? If they can will they keep those voters or will they float off because of other issues?
Demographics seem to be in the Democrats' favor. If only under 30 voters or only Black voters voted, a TikTok that Joy Ried has up says all the states would be all blue.
That video is the best representation of the demographics of the midterm elections I've seen. Rural voters make the map mostly red, as do Protestant voters, and White non-college grads. Do click the link. It's a short but effective video. You'll probably want to watch it several times because it doesn't linger.
So, everyone who has worked to make this blue wave happen, I thank you and congratulate you. But don't go home yet. Sure, take a break. Celebrate. But I hope you've gotten infected with citizen power (look up the word
efficacy if you don't know it) and continue to organize, continue to recruit, and continue to let politicians know you're there and paying attention.
4. How government works, how the economy works, how the climate works, how immunizations work are all complex and not something you come to understand on social media - unless your feed gives you links to much longer articles and videos. My hope is that at least the Trump administration has gotten people to pay a little more attention to government. I'd like to see some video series that follow laws, or follow individual legislators, or Congressional committees in ways that make them fascinating, but without distorting them. I'd like as many people to follow politics as follow football. Any topic is fascinating once you get into it and start to learn how it works. Think of all the people who are birdwatchers or astronomers or can take apart a car and put it back together. Politics is everyone's responsibility in a democracy. Even if it's not your thing, you need to get some trusted friends to advise you how to vote in your own and the nation's interest.
We can't master all the aspects of government - federal, state, local - and all the issues. But we do need people with aptitudes for different things to pay attention and help the rest of us understand why we need to vote and who we need to vote for.
[We're still waiting for the Mississippi and Alaska elections to be conclusive. In both cases as more votes have come in, the Democratic US Senate candidates have increased their leads.]
B. What will Trump do in the last two years?
Who knows? Some are telling Democrats to pass as much legislation that can be seen to help people (social security, SNAP, voting rights, ending tariffs, ending the Iran war, a peace in Ukraine that restores all their territory, abolishing ICE or at least unmasking them and stopping their cruelty, etc.) just to make Trump veto everything and give them fodder for the next election.
But I think there's also the chance that Trump will cooperate more than anyone expects (or even just a little bit) with Democrats. He's a bully. Bullies retreat when the victim fights back. He's already said he wouldn't contest the midterms (though I'm seeing hints he might at the swearing in). He's had cordial meetings with Mamdani. If he thinks that restoring Social Security or universal health care will improve his reputation, he might sign such a bill and claim credit. Senator elect Abdul El-Sayed recognizes this and has
offered to call a Medicare-for-all bill the Trumplan if Trump will sign it.
Trump has no ideology other than promoting himself. So working with Democrats, if he sees a benefit to himself, is possible. But he's still siccing the DOJ on Democratic members of Congress. He's internalized the mantra he learned from Roy Cohn -
attack, counterattack, never apologize. And Stephen Miller will always encourage him to be his worst possible self.
Let's see what happens.