What's Happening with the British Election?

Results:  Election seats/Percent of Parliament/Percent of Vote  (From BBC)



Conservative seats:  306 (47%)-  36% of Vote

Labour seats:  258 (29%)  - 29% of vote

Lib Dem seats:  57 (9%)   - 23% of vote

Other parties:   28  (4%)  - 12%


There is one seat still undecided because of a death that pushed the election back.


Voter turnout is pegged at 65%, up 4% from the 2005 election.


As best as I can figure this out, here's what's happening:

1.  No party has a majority.  The Conservatives got the most votes, but not enough to form a majority government.

2  They can either work out a coalition with another party(ies) that would give them collectively a majority or try to form a minority government.  A minority government would seem to run into problems and there would be a likelihood of a new election within a year. 

3.  The two other main parties, Labour and Liberal Democrats, are ideologically closer together than either is to the Conservatives and if the Conservatives can't form a coalition, Labour and the Lib Dems could, conceivably, form a majority government.

4.  However, the leader of the Lib Dems, Nick Clegg, doesn't like leader of Labour, Gordon Brown, and has even said in the campaign that he couldn't work with Brown.  On the radio today they are talking about a heated phone conversation Friday between Clegg and Brown, which they deny.  Brown does seem to have been a serious problem for many people who might otherwise have voted Labour.

5.  There seem to be some attempts by the Conservatives to work out an agreement with the Lib Dems.  But they have serious ideological differences including integration with Europe (Conservatives against, Lib Dems for) and electoral reform (Conservatives against, Lib Dems for.) 

6.  A major issue for the Lib Dems is proportional representation. You can see why the Lib Dem Party is so strongly for proportional voting  from the numbers at the top.  While they got 27% of the vote, they only got 9% of the seats.   I'll address this issue below. 

7.  Splits seem to be coming out into the open in all the parties.  Conservatives are angry with their leadership for failing to win a majority.  Lib Dems are concerned about their leader making an agreement with the Conservatives.  One Labour MP has called for Gordon Brown to step down.

8.  The first Green Party MP was elected Thursday.

9.  Meanwhile, the Constitution allows the sitting Prime Minister to continue as head of the government until a new government is formed.  So, despite Conservatives calling for him to step down because so many Labour seats have gone to the Conservatives (about 95), Brown is holding his position and looking for ways to work with the Lib Dems.


What about Proportional Representation? 

The Observer has an article on this but I can't find it online.  In the US, primary elections tend to narrow the race to two main parties with minor party candidates who tend not to get many votes.  Here, there are a number of parties and so it can happen that a party like the Lib Dems can get a lot of votes in many districts, but mostly come in second or third.  Conversely, the Conservatives were able to win a lot of seats, but with less than 50% of the vote.  So there are four options that the Observer listed today that are on the table for electoral reform.  Basically they involve more complicated ranking schemes - you vote for more than one candidate ranking them 1, 2, 3, etc.  Then if there is no majority, the bottom candidate is dropped and the second choice for those voters is calculated.   The four options the Observer lists are:
1.  First past the post - the current system.  Each district picks an MP and the MP's pick the Prime Minister.

2.  Alternative vote (AV)  - Rank the candidates


3.  Alternative vote (AV+) - Same as two, with the addition of a list of party candidates.  I don't totally understand this one.


4.  Single transferable vote (STV)  - Bigger constituencies with more than one MP.  Again, this one isn't really clear to me. 


Here's a website that lists these options and a couple more if you want to see more detail.




What's next?  It seems to me, that if Labour got rid of Brown at the top, then there would be a greater chance of forming an alliance with the Lib Dems.