Overview
Few people voted Tuesday. The winners of the US Senate races got votes from between 3% and 9% of the voting age population. That means over 90% of the voting age population voted for someone else or didn't vote. 75% of the voting age population didn't vote at all.
Alaska's Population
The US Census gives the population of Alaska in 2008 as 686,000.
The Alaska Permanent Fund estimates the 2008 population as 679,720 and 2009 population as 692,314.
Registered Voters
That same Census Bureau estimates the voting age population of Alaska as 506,000 in 2008.
The Alaska Division of Voters, as of August 3, 2010, says there are 487,575 registered voters. As I noted in a previous post, this would mean that Alaska has about 96% of its voter age population registered while the US average is closer to 70%.
How the Alaska Primaries Work
The Republican primary is a semi-closed primary. That means that only Republicans appear on the ballot and only Republicans and people not registered with another party can vote in the Republican primary. So, Republicans, independents, and undeclared voters can vote.
The other parties have a blanket primary. That means the other parties (Libertarian, Democratic, Alaska Independence, etc.) have their candidates all appear on one ballot and anyone, including Republicans, can vote on this ballot.
There were three ballots.
- ADL - This includes Alaska Independence Party, Democrats, and Libertarians, and both ballot measures.
- R - This is the Republican Ballot, plus both ballot measures.
- M - This is just for ballot measures. There are no candidates.
Republicans could choose any ballot.
Undeclared and Independents could choose any ballot.
Democrats, Alaska Independence, and Alaskan Libertarian Party members could choose the ADL ballot or M ballot.
I would guess that most voters probably did not understand all this and it had to be explained by the election workers.
- Prop. 1 to severely limit lobbying by public officials and employees and non-profits, but not businesses. (It lost resoundingly.)
- Prop. 2 to require doctors to notify the parents of girls under 18 before they can have an abortion. (It won 55%-44%)
How many people voted?
ADL Ballot Total votes for statewide races
- Senate - 30,855 (one Libertarian and three or four relatively unknown candidates)
- US House - 33,192 (one candidate, State Rep. Harry Crawford)
- Governor - 39,768 (two high profile Democrats, one Libertarian, one Alaskan Independent)
- Lt. Governor - 37,149 (three Democrats - one got 67% - and one Libertarian)
R Ballot Total votes for statewide races
- Senate - 92,386 (Lisa Murkowski and Joe Miller)
- US House - 62,590 (one candidate, incumbent Don Young)
- Governor - 90,938 (six candidates, including sitting Governor)
- Lt. Governor - 84,928 (seen by many as the most contested election, four candidates, three high profile)
M Ballot- Voters could vote on the ballot measures on all three types of ballots. So, these vote counts reflect all three ballots and are the highest. The election results do not distinguish the votes of the different ballots on these measures, or even how many people voted for them on which ballots.
Measure 1 - 134,471
Measure 2 - 134,981
Votes for US Senate Races
ADL Ballot
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
R Ballot
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The box below shows that overall, 24% of Alaskans of voting age voted in the US Senate race. The Democratic winner had about 6% of Alaskans of voting age and the two Republicans who were almost tied, each had about 9%.
What does it mean?
Without good polling to hear from the voters themselves, the numbers leave a lot of unanswered questions.
1. How many Independents and Undeclared took Republican ballots, Democratic ballots, M ballots? My guess is they were more likely to take Republican ballots.
2. How many Independents and Undeclared voters voted for Miller? And Why? Clearly some were swayed by the Tea Party rhetoric. Some, no doubt, we're voting against Murkowski.
3. If Miller wins, how many of his voters this time will vote for him in the general? How may others can he attract in November? If the Tea Party folks were fired up, are there that many left who will vote for him in the Fall?
4. If Murkowski wins, what will the Miller voters do? Sit out? Vote for Murkowski? Vote for McAdams? Vote for the Libertarian Party candidate?
5. McAdams is just as unknown today as Miller was three months ago. Can he get Alaskans excited? He has a great Alaskan profile - fisherman, small town mayor, but basically a 'real person' rather than a politician. Will he attract Outside money to counter the money the Tea Party has sent to Miller?
6. Will Murkowski's close race make her seem more vulnerable even if she wins?
7. Is Miller so extreme that when his positions are known Alaskans will reject him when more show up to vote?
All these questions and others may or may not be answered in the next few months. I think the key point here is that really very few people have voted. That means that so far very little support has been given to anyone. If the Tea Party really spent half a million dollars on Miller, it means helped get a victory (even if he doesn't win) by spending $10.63 per vote.
All things being equal, Alaska voters tend to be more conservative. The key to winning for Democrats is identifying non-voters who can be cajoled at worst and excited at best to come out and vote. Obama energized a lot of Alaskan liberals to vote in 2008. But, that said, it's easier said than done.
I read elsewhere two things that address a couple of your questions:
ReplyDelete1) McAdams is pretty high up on the donor list at one of the progressive sites, ActBlue or something like that, so there is a bit of money headed his way from Dems/Progressives/Liberals (whatever name you want to give them) outside of AK
2) An interview w/someone at the DNC was along the lines of "wow, we didn't give that race a thought, figured Murkowski was a shoe-in, now we'll take a closer look..."
As for other issues --
There are many many Repubs in AK who would not vote at all before they would vote for Miller. Alaskan voters are a bit crazy, but not THAT crazy. Do they really want to be one of the few states that send a teabagger to the Senate? Hasn't Palin been humiliating enough for AK? I really don't see them voting for him because of a love of the "R" next to the name.
Getting out the vote in AK is a most frustrating exercise. It is one of the things that I most disliked about living there, the apathy of the non-conservative voters. Turn out is dismal at the best of times. Of course now we live in TX and it is the same in terms of apathy of progressives, crazy people, insane politicians, etc. From the frying pan into the fire.
Because I have family & friends there in AK (born & raised there) I wish you all the best, and will be donating AND sending positive thoughts.
I really appreciate all this info you've compiled. It was exactly what I was looking for...And Secondly, I am non-partisan. I voted on the Dems ballot for a candidate that did not win the primary, as many of my peers in the same "undeclared" category did. However, I'll be voting for Lisa as a write-in candidate, as will some other undeclared voters who opted for the Dems ticket thinking that the repubs would keep Lisa. Personally, when voting I try to vote for the candidate that will do the best job, not political parties -- as they, from my perspective, seem to be pretty self-serving, regardless of their intentions or political leanings (Reps, Dems, Greens, Baggers, all of 'em). I agree with you, this coming election will prove to be interesting. Once again, thanks for the blog!
ReplyDelete