Saturday, April 10, 2021

Bronson Pads His Lead A Bit With Saturday's Election Numbers

 There are still some mail-in ballots that ought to be trailing in, but probably not enough to change much in the election.  Dave Bronson added about 120 votes to his lead over Forrest Dunbar in this latest tally.  The rankings of the candidates did not change with the new votes.   

Bronson, who claims to be a "center-right kinda guy", was a leader among those opposing COVID restrictions on businesses and mandatory mask wearing.  You can see the ADN profile here.  And this Anchorage Press profile seems to put him among far-right extremists on issues like COVID and LGBTQ rights.

Dunbar, who at 36 represents a generational change, has been a strong advocate of following science to fight COVID and get the economy back on line.  His ADN profile is here.

It's clear that neither is going to get the magic 45% needed to win the mayoral race outright.  We'll be off to a runoff.  Though if Anchorage had the state's new ranked-choice voting, it would all be resolved in this one election.  Among the candidates who received 2000 votes or more - I would guess about most of Falsey's and Martinez's votes (about 9000) would go to Dunbar.  Most of Robbins votes (4,457) would go to Bronson and Evans' votes (5,686) would split but lean towards Dunbar.  

But runoffs tend to have much lower turnouts, so it will depend who gets his voters to the polls.  Another reason to switch to ranked-choice voting.   Though the extreme differences between the top two candidates may increase the likely voter turnout.  

Numbers After less than 2,000 more votes tallied Saturday, April 10, 2021.

Mayor RaceTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturday--------------
EVANS, Bill 

999    (4)         

3,871  (4)  4,782 (4)5,505 (4)5,686   (4)
SWANK, Albert L., Jr

36  (9)

139 (10)157 (10)173  (10)183  (10)
MARTINEZ, George

321 (6)

1,272  (6)1,658 (6)1,928  (6)2,006  (6)
MOMIN, Reza

12  (11)

35  (13)39 (13)40  (13)44 (13)
FALSEY, Bill

1,281 (3)

5,312  (3)6,703  (3)7,614  (3)7,826  (3)
HERNDON, Heather

91   (7)

303    (7)337  (7)366  (7)374  (7)
ANTHONY, Anna

63  (8)

190   (8)233  (8)237  (8)242   (8)
BRONSON, David

3,116  (2)

12,986  (2)15,953 (2)18,716  (1)19,334  (1)
BROWN, Jeffrey

33  (10)

147   (9)196  (9)229  (9)236  (9)
VERSTEEG, Jacob

11  (12)

31  (14)35  (14)36  (14)36 (14)
ROBBINS, Mike

745   (5)

3,097   (5)3,766 (5)4,324  (5)4,457  (5)
DUNBAR, Forrest

3,701 (1)

13,711 (1)16,458 (1)18,300 (2)18,812  (2)
COLBRY, Darin

8  (14)

18  (15)21 (15)25 (15)25  (15)
WESTFALL, Joe

12 (11)

48  (11)61  (11)67  (11)68 (11)
KERN, Jacob Seth

 (13)

38   (12)41 (12)43  (12)45 (12)







Total10,43841,19850,43057,60359,374


District 4 is a relatively liberal district that overlaps with the House and Senate Seats of Democrats Andy Josephson and Elvi Gray-Jackson.  Voters are soundly rejecting the recall of Assembly Chair Felix Rivera 57% NO to 42.5% yes.  

ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 4 – SEAT G – RECALL (Vote for 1)

Precincts Reported: 0 of 23 (0.00%)

Total

Times Cast

9,663 / 42,059

22.97%

Candidate

Party

Total

YES

3,926

42.51%

NO

5,309

57.49%

Total Votes

9,235

Total

Unresolved Write-In

0


The 'progressive' candidates for School Board are all leading their races, though the numbers have tightened in the last two tallies.  The closest race is Seat B where Kelly Lessens leads by 471 votes as of today's tally.

SCHOOL BOARD SEAT B (1-YEAR TERM) (Vote for 1)

Precincts Reported: 0 of 123 (0.00%)

Total

Times Cast

60,253 / 236,619

25.46%

Candidate

Party

Total

ELEDGE, Judy Norton

20,128

38.29%

STEWART, Marilyn

5,981

11.38%

COX, Mark Anthony

5,863

11.15%

LESSENS, Kelly

20,599

39.18%

Total Votes

52,571

Total

Unresolved Write-In

427


SCHOOL BOARD SEAT E (Vote for 1)

Precincts Reported: 0 of 123 (0.00%)

Total

Times Cast

60,253 / 236,619

25.46%

Candidate

Party

Total

HIGGINS, Pat

17,504

33.46%

HILDE, Alisha

6,732

12.87%

BLATCHFORD, Edgar

4,148

7.93%

BLAKESLEE, Rachel

5,132

9.81%

GRAHAM, Sami

16,774

32.07%

WILLIAMS, Nial Sherwood

2,017

3.86%

Total Votes

52,307

Total

Unresolved Write-In

444



SCHOOL BOARD SEAT F (Vote for 1)

Precincts Reported: 0 of 123 (0.00%)

Total

Times Cast

60,253 / 236,619

25.46%

Candidate

Party

Total

SANDERS, Marcus

8,214

15.96%

PAULSON, Kim

17,243

33.50%

LORING, Dan

2,662

5.17%

WILSON, Dora

23,355

45.37%

Total Votes

51,474

Total

Unresolved Write-In

486

SCHOOL BOARD SEAT G (Vote for 1)

Precincts Reported: 0 of 123 (0.00%)

Total

Times Cast

60,253 / 236,619

25.46%

Candidate

Party

Total

VAKALIS, Elisa

24,432

48.68%

JACOBS, Carl

25,762

51.32%

Total Votes

50,194

Total

Unresolved Write-In

871

Friday, April 09, 2021

Bronson Takes The Lead In Mayor's Race by 416 Votes. But There Will Be A Runoff

 The top two mayoral candidates were the only ones to change rank in today's numbers for the Election Office.  There are still mail-in ballots to arrive.  All the other races/issues are here.


Mayor RaceTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFriday------------------------
EVANS, Bill 

999    (4)         

3,871  (4)  4,782 (4)5,505 (4)
SWANK, Albert L., Jr

36  (9)

139 (10)157 (10)173  (10)
MARTINEZ, George

321 (6)

1,272  (6)1,658 (6)1,928  (6)
MOMIN, Reza

12  (11)

35  (13)39 (13)40  (13)
FALSEY, Bill

1,281 (3)

5,312  (3)6,703  (3)7,614  (3)
HERNDON, Heather

91   (7)

303    (7)337  (7)366  (7)
ANTHONY, Anna

63  (8)

190   (8)233  (8)237  (8)
BRONSON, David

3,116  (2)

12,986  (2)15,953 (2)18,716  (1)
BROWN, Jeffrey

33  (10)

147   (9)196  (9)229  (9)
VERSTEEG, Jacob

11  (12)

31  (14)35  (14)36  (14)
ROBBINS, Mike

745   (5)

3,097   (5)3,766 (5)4,324  (5)
DUNBAR, Forrest

3,701 (1)

13,711 (1)16,458 (1)18,300 (2) 
COLBRY, Darin

8  (14)

18  (15)21 (15)25 (15)
WESTFALL, Joe

12 (11)

48  (11)61  (11)67  (11)
KERN, Jacob Seth

 (13)

38   (12)41 (12)43  (12)








Total10,43841,19850,43057,603


Clearly, there was a large chunk of more conservative voters in this last batch of about 7,000 new ballots.  Not only did Bronson take a slight lead in the Mayor's race, but the School District races tightened up too.  The progressive candidates are still in the lead, but by smaller margins.  

The mayor has to get 45% to win.  So it's pretty clear there will be a runoff.  But Falsey and Martinez voters are likely to go strongly for Dunbar in a runoff and I would imagine a reasonable share of Bill Evans' votes will too.  Robbins' votes will lean to Bronson I would imagine.

This election is one that would be decided clearly in one election if the State's new ranked-choice voting applied to Anchorage.  


Recall Vote

Total

Times Cast

9,508 / 42,059

22.61%

Candidate

Party

Total

YES

3,844

42.30%

NO

5,243

57.70%

Total Votes

9,087


I think this issue was less affected by the clump of conservative votes we got tonight because only residents of Assembly District 4 could vote on this.  

SCHOOL BOARD SEAT B (1-YEAR TERM) (Vote for 1)

Precincts Reported: 0 of 123 (0.00%)

Total

Times Cast

58,446 / 236,619

24.70%

Candidate

Party

Total

ELEDGE, Judy Norton

19,513

38.20%

STEWART, Marilyn

5,852

11.45%

COX, Mark Anthony

5,684

11.13%

LESSENS, Kelly

20,038

39.22%

Total Votes

51,087

Total

Unresolved Write-In

417




SCHOOL BOARD SEAT E (Vote for 1)

Precincts Reported: 0 of 123 (0.00%)

Total

Times Cast

58,446 / 236,619

24.70%

Candidate

Party

Total

HIGGINS, Pat

17,043

33.53%

HILDE, Alisha

6,557

12.90%

BLATCHFORD, Edgar

4,037

7.94%

BLAKESLEE, Rachel

4,966

9.77%

GRAHAM, Sami

16,254

31.98%

WILLIAMS, Nial Sherwood

1,967

3.87%

Total Votes

50,824

Total

Unresolved Write-In

432



SCHOOL BOARD SEAT F (Vote for 1)

Precincts Reported: 0 of 123 (0.00%)

Total

Times Cast

58,446 / 236,619

24.70%

Candidate

Party

Total

SANDERS, Marcus

7,975

15.95%

PAULSON, Kim

16,715

33.42%

LORING, Dan

2,595

5.19%

WILSON, Dora

22,726

45.44%

Total Votes

50,011

Total

Unresolved Write-In

476


SCHOOL BOARD SEAT G (Vote for 1)

Precincts Reported: 0 of 123 (0.00%)

Total

Times Cast

58,446 / 236,619

24.70%

Candidate

Party

Total

VAKALIS, Elisa

23,724

48.63%

JACOBS, Carl

25,056

51.37%

Total Votes

48,780

Total

Unresolved Write-In

849

Thursday, April 08, 2021

Almost No Changes In Rank In Anchorage Mayor Race From Tuesday to Thursday

Here are the results from Tuesday night, Wednesday night, and Thursday night in the Anchorage Mayor's race.  There is almost no change in the rankings from night to night.  From Tuesday to Wednesday a couple of people traded ranks.  The biggest shift is due to a tie for 11th place on the first night.  There were NO changes in rank for the top eight candidates from night to night.

From Wednesday to Thursday there are no changes in rank.  

I'm guessing that, at least in part, this is due to mail in voting.  Instead of votes coming in from different precincts which often are more politically homogenous, they came in from all over.  


Mayor Race Tuesday Wednesday Thursday ----------- ------------------ ------
EVANS, Bill 

999    (4)         

3,871  (4)   4,782 (4)

SWANK, Albert L., Jr

36  (9)

139 (10) 157 (10)

MARTINEZ, George

321 (6)

1,272  (6) 1,658 (6)

MOMIN, Reza

12  (11)

35  (13) 39 (13)

FALSEY, Bill

1,281 (3)

5,312  (3) 6,703  (3)

HERNDON, Heather

91   (7)

303    (7) 337  (7)

ANTHONY, Anna

63  (8)

190   (8) 233  (8)

BRONSON, David

3,116  (2)

12,986  (2) 15,953 (2)

BROWN, Jeffrey

33  (10)

147   (9) 196  (9)

VERSTEEG, Jacob

11  (12)

31  (14) 35  (14)

ROBBINS, Mike

745   (5)

3,097   (5) 3,766 (5)

DUNBAR, Forrest

3,701 (1)

13,711 (1) 16,458 (1)

COLBRY, Darin

8  (14)

18  (15) 21 (15)

WESTFALL, Joe

12 (11)

48  (11) 61  (11)

KERN, Jacob Seth

9  (13)

38   (12) 41 (12)









Total 10,438 41,198 50,430


Looking at the numbers  makes me wonder about the standards for getting on the ballot.  I think we wasted a time at candidate forums by having candidates who couldn't even get 100 votes out of 50,000.  While I do think candidates without a chance of winning can add different points of view to the debate, having too many candidates at a forum means the public gets to question the main candidates less.  


I wanted to do the same thing for the other races, but I needed to think this through better technically before I started.  But I'll leave Wednesday night totals for the recall and school board races below.  I don't think there are any changes in rank, but some races tightened, others widened. 

You can get to the totals for each night on the Municipal Election Page.

Candidate

Party

Total

YES

3,417

42.34%

NO

4,653

57.66%

Total Votes

8,070



Candidate

Party

Total

ELEDGE, Judy Norton

16,697

37.28%

STEWART, Marilyn

5,240

11.70%

COX, Mark Anthony

5,051

11.28%

LESSENS, Kelly

17,801

39.74%

Total Votes

44,789

Total

Unresolved Write-In

371




Candidate

Party

Total

HIGGINS, Pat

15,188

34.06%

HILDE, Alisha

5,780

12.96%

BLATCHFORD, Edgar

3,624

8.13%

BLAKESLEE, Rachel

4,426

9.92%

GRAHAM, Sami

13,905

31.18%

WILLIAMS, Nial Sherwood

1,673

3.75%

Total Votes

44,596

Total

Unresolved Write-In

383



Candidate

Party

Total

SANDERS, Marcus

6,988

15.92%

PAULSON, Kim

14,321

32.64%

LORING, Dan

2,374

5.41%

WILSON, Dora

20,199

46.03%

Total Votes

43,882

Total

Unresolved Write-In

423



Candidate

Party

Total

VAKALIS, Elisa

20,641

48.20%

JACOBS, Carl

22,186

51.80%

Total Votes

42,827

Total

Unresolved Write-In

737




Wednesday, April 07, 2021

Yesterday's Early Election Results Appear Unchanged In New Report Today

 Going through the latest report which just got posted, it appears those leading last night are still leading now.

Mayoral Race:  Bronson (12,986) is still trailing Dunbar (13,711).

Recall:  The NO vote (3,821) has increased its lead over the YES vote (3,821).


School Board Seat B:  Kelly Lessens (14,494) is still ahead of Judy Norton Eledge (13,588)

School Board Seat E:  Pat Higgins (12,549) is still ahead of Sami Graham (11,326)

School Board Seat F:  Dora Wilson (16,491) has increased her lead over Kim Paulson (11,790)

School Board Seat G:  Carl Jacobs (18,161) is still leading Elisa Vakalis (16,914)

You can see all the details at the Municipal Election Page as well as results on neighborhood elections bond issues.

You can see yesterday's results in my post last night and compare how much change there has been in the standings.