Alaska COVID-19 Update 3 More Positives For A Total Of 6 Since Friday [Updated With COVID-19 Video Showing Progression of V]

NOTE:  Today's update says it was updated yesterday at 7pm instead of today at 12:30pm, so these added numbers don't reflect 24 hours since the last posting.

This chart and the one at the bottom from here.

[UPDATED March 18, 2020 8:20pm:  Since the announcement above is listed as being posted at 7pm on March 17, and there was no new one today when I looked after today's scheduled post - I used it and assume it would cover for today.  But since yesterday's was posted at 7pm, I thought I'd check.  And sure enough there's a new update from 12:30pm today.  I checked and I got mine at 12:43pm so there's might have been posted shortly after that.  It looks pretty much the same.

Maybe that just had the wrong time stamp on it and fixed it.  But it's really helpful to notify readers why you made a change - in this case the date and time have been changed.

Meanwhile, three more cases have been reported in the news today.  Based on the video below and other writers, I'm expecting the number of positives to jump pretty quickly in the next week or two.]

In the last few days we've gone from 0 positives, to 1 positive, to 3, then to 6.  Since only a tiny percent of our population has been tested, I expect that numbers will start to go up quickly once testing is more widespread.  Meanwhile people are out and about without knowing if they are positive or negative.

I saw a distinction yesterday between diagnostic testing (to determine a patient's treatment) and surveillance testing (to keep track of the overall spread of the virus in the community.)  It seems to me that Alaska has focused on diagnostic testing.

Here's my update from the numbers I put up yesterday.  I'm trying to track this on a continuous basis so people can see the daily and weekly increases in people tested and results.  As I do these, only the last column should change each day.  I'd note again, that 'today's' posting says it was posted yesterday at 7pm.  (The notice has said everyday they'll post at 12:30pm daily weekdays).  So, technically, there are two posting from yesterday, so the increase is only up to 7pm yesterday.  And the increase is more for half a day.

Alaska Covid-19 Data by Steve on Scribd

This report also had a new chart attached to it that gives overall numbers.

Region*	Travel-Related**	Close Contact	Total
Anchorage	2	0	2
Gulf Coast	0	0	0
Interior	3	0	3
Mat-Su	0	0	0
Northern	0	0	0
Southeast	1	0	1
Southwest	0	0	0
TOTAL	6	0	6

 *Economic regions definitions

**Exposure/source of the virus was outside of Alaska.

You'll see the state is perhaps trying to console us by pointing out that all the cases are people who traveled and brought the virus back to Alaska.  But we don't know how many people they interacted with before they were tested and isolated.


[UPDATE 5:44pm]

The video below does a good job of showing (based on Wuhan data) how many actual cases there are compared to the identified cases, for various reasons.  One could argue this doesn't apply so well to us here in Alaska because, so far, the cases were brought in from Outside.  (All the more reason to be screening passengers on Alaska bound jets.  Our geographic isolation makes it relatively easier to check on people entering the state.)  But as people bring the virus in and spread it before getting sick, we're going to see similar dynamics.