Alaska COVID-19 Count - State Offers Greatly Improved Way To See Numbers - 8 New Cases, 4 New Hospitalizations, No New Deaths [UPDATED]

[UPDATES, April 2, 2020, 8:30pm:  I've added some things in - most of which should be obvious because there in [brackets].  I've added a couple of links that aren't so obvious.]

The state has totally revamped how they report on COVID-19.  At the press conference today, Dr. Anne Zink was a superstar as she explained the new charts, why there are some discrepancies (they changed the daily reporting time, so today there is some overlap), gave info on COVID-19 and Alaska, and answered reporters' questions.  She's just incredible in her knowledge of what's all going on and her ability to unflappably and clearly explain things.  We are SO lucky to have her in charge of this.  And we're lucky our governor hands it all over to her and lets her talk without interrupting her.

I suspect I want to edit parts of this post.  Particularly the part I cut and pasted from the State site.  I just don't know how it's going to fit and work on here.  [It worked, actually.  You have to scroll to the right, but it's there and interactive.  Yeah.]

But for now I'm going to put this up and then have dinner.  Then I'll check back.

My calendar chart:

CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH/APRIL 2020
Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
new/total	hos=hospital		12th  = 0/0	13th = 1/1	14th = 0/1	15th = 0/1
16th = 0/1	17th = 2/3	18th = 3/6	19th = 3/9	20th = 3/12	21st= 2/14	22nd= 8/22
23rd=14/36	24th =6/42 1 hos 1 dead	25th = 17/59 3 hos 1 dead	26th = 10/69 3 hos 1 dead	27th =16/89 5 hos 2 dead	28th = 13/102 6 hos 2 dead	29th=12/114 7 hos  3 dead
30th=5/119 7 hos 3 dead	31st= 14/133 9 hos 3 dead
April 2020		1st=  10/143 9 hos 3 dead	2nd=8(4)/147 13 hos 3 dead
		Hospital and dead figures are total to date, not new on that date

Here's the new way the State is presenting the data.  I haven't had time to think hard about this new format.  It's easier to see the basics, and it shows parts of the state affected better.

But it has 8 new cases for a total of 147.  But yesterday it said we had 143 cases, so some of those eight may have been in yesterday's total of ten.  [Dr. Zink clarified that this discrepancy comes from changing the time they make daily reports, so there is some overlap in the numbers today and yesterday.  But it will clear up from now on.  I've adjusted my chart below.  I suspect that also explains the discrepancy in numbers of tests yesterday and today.]

The number of hospitalizations is clarified today as cumulative, not how many are hospitalized right now.

Dr. Zink is giving an overview on the Corona Virus in Alaska explaining this in details.  She's mentioned as serology test approved by the FDA today to see if people have had the virus and have anti-bodies. [That will be good for folks who couldn't get tested earlier and think they might have had the test.  And also for people who were asymptomatic.]

Alaska is in the top ten states for testing most per capita.  We're the state with the fewest number of identified cases.  [If you use the 147 number here that seems to be true, but if you use the 151 that was mentioned in the press conference we're behind Wyoming, which doesn't have any deaths.  See this chart - which keeps updating.]

If you click on this image, it will enlarge it and focus so you can read it better.
This page is INTERACTIVE, so you should go there and play with it.  I've copied it and pasted it below, to see if I could capture the interactivity.  But it looks like it will go way off the page.  I'll try and later I'll see if I can make adjustments.  But you can link to the original state page here.

[Warning - if the cursor is on the map below when you scroll down the page, the map enlarges.  Also, part of the State report below goes way over to the right.  If you scroll down and everything is blank, it means you have to move back over to the left.]

Alaska Coronavirus Response Hub

Last updated April 2, 2020, 12:00 PM AKDT

Updates will occur at approximately 12:00 PM AKDT daily

COVID-19 is the infectious disease caused by the novel coronavirus. This new virus and disease were unknown to the population before the outbreak began in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. 

This page provides information, maps and resources about the coronavirus response in our local area.

To view the full screen dashboard seen above please visit this link.

Now here's my updated version of the chart I started March 12 and adjusted.

Alaska Covid-19 Data NewFor... by Steve on Scribd

[If you want to see why I'm so enthusiastic about Dr. Zink, you can watch today's press conference here.]

Alaska COVID-19 Count - April 1, 2020 - New Cases = 0; New Deaths=0; New Hospitalizations =0

The number of new cases is NOT going up at an ever increasing rate.  At least for now.  That's good.  No new deaths in four days.  No new hospitalizations since yesterday.

My calendar chart, we're in April now.

CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH/APRIL 2020
Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
new/total	hos=hospital		12th  = 0/0	13th = 1/1	14th = 0/1	15th = 0/1
16th = 0/1	17th = 2/3	18th = 3/6	19th = 3/9	20th = 3/12	21st= 2/14	22nd= 8/22
23rd=14/36	24th =6/42 1 hos 1 dead	25th = 17/59 3 hos 1 dead	26th = 10/69 3 hos 1 dead	27th =16/89 5 hos 2 dead	28th = 13/102 6 hos 2 dead	29th=12/114 7 hos  3 dead
30th=5/119 7 hos 3 dead	31st= 14/133 9 hos 3 dead
April 2020		1st=  10/143 9 hos 3 dead
		Hospital and dead figures are total to date, not new on that date

State's Charts from their website.

 The chart above gives a visual sense of where the positive cases are, but as more days are added it seems to get less and less useful, since the days get further and further from the Y axis and it's harder to calculate how many.  And each color is one lump, so you can't count that way.

Of course those details are in the chart below.  What the chart above adds is time, but the time is ambiguous - "date of onset, diagnosis, or report - whichever is earlier."  So, the announcements of 14 new positive cases, 1 new hospitalization, and one new death on March 29, that date has nothing in the chart above.

There were 419 new tests.  Remember, the last date for all these charts was yesterday.

Finally, my other chart.

Alaska Covid-19 Data NewFor... by Steve on Scribd

Dr. Zink said that tomorrow the State would put up some different ways of presenting this information.  Sounds good.

Alaska COVID-19 Count Tuesday, March 31, 2020 - New Cases = 14, New Deaths =0, New Hospitalizations = 2

Increase of 14 to 133 total positive cases.
No increase in dead - still 3.
Two more hospitalized to a total of 9

Based on the press conference - the positive case reported by BP on the North Slope was someone from out of state.  So that person's case is NOT counted in Alaska, but in the state they comes from.


My Calendar Chart (I have to figure out how I'm going to do April)

CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH 2020
Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
new/total	hos=hospital		12th  = 0/0	13th = 1/1	14th = 0/1	15th = 0/1
16th = 0/1	17th = 2/3	18th = 3/6	19th = 3/9	20th = 3/12	21st= 2/14	22nd= 8/22
23rd=14/36	24th =6/42 1 hos 1 dead	25th = 17/59 3 hos 1 dead	26th = 10/69 3 hos 1 dead	27th =16/89 5 hos 2 dead	28th = 13/102 6 hos 2 dead	29th=12/114 7 hos  3 dead
30th=5/119 7 hos 3 dead	31st= 14/133 9 hos 3 dead	Hospital and dead figures are total to date, not new on that date

State's Charts today:

The Municipality has just under half the positive cases - 65 out of 133.

And there were the most tests reported today than any other day up to today - 890 - most (645) of which were done by commercial labs.

• COVID-19 testing data for Alaska residents in CSV format  (link to table with all the numbers for the two previous charts) 

My overall chart:

Alaska Covid-19 Data NewFor... by Steve on Scribd

Late Spring, Short Bike Ride, Experience With Instacart, And Seeds

This was our front lawn on March 5, 2015.

This was our front lawn on March 19, 2020 in comparison.









And below was our front lawn on March 30, 2020.  (The base of the tree is in the upper left.) Just the beginning of the earth being revealed by the sublimating snow and ice.  We're way behind this year.  At least from the last ten years or so.  We've gotten used to global warming.  But this has been a winter where the temperatures were mostly below 'normal'.

The ice between the sidewalk (that I try to keep clear) and the street is still thick, but the sunny days (even when it hasn't been above freezing), and my ice-chipping are starting to make a difference.



We've been pretty good about self-isolating.  I try and get out in the back or front yard every day and tinker around. J goes for a much longer walk.  There aren't many people out and staying six feet away isn't hard to do.

Yesterday I even got the bike out and it felt wonderful.
I didn't go very far - I saw three people walking abreast ahead of me and knew I couldn't pass them with six feet, so I turned off into a parking lot and looped back home via the alley where there was still some ice and snow on the ground - I was using the bike with the studded tires.




We also tried out Fred Meyer's home delivery.  I think it would have been faster to walk to the grocery, get our stuff, and walk home, than it was just ordering on the app.  We had to look through so many items to find what we wanted.  When I tried searching it didn't find it.  But later it did.  I think you have to be in the right department when you search.    And I'm sure it will be easier next time.  Then when I was going to check out, it had something next to most items about being out of stock and were substitutes acceptable.  For some I said no.  For others I put in conditions.  I really had no idea how it would work.  But I was uncomfortable with someone making substitutes.  As it turned out, it was fine.  The shopper texted when she started and asked about substitutions before making them.  I think there was just one - one brand of yogurt for another.  And she texted about items that weren't there - like alcohol swabs.

The point was to not be out amongst people exposing either of us to the virus since we're in the high risk age group.  And since I couldn't get tested, I have no clear sense of whether what I had (the cough still lingers, but I cough less frequently) was COVID-19.   But when I saw our shopper get out of the car at the bottom of the driveway and then slowly, almost painfully, lug up the two bags to the doorstep, I felt terrible.  If she wasn't also in the high risk age group, she certainly walked like she was.

So that was my introduction to Instacart, which really hadn't been on my radar.  It was just under $10 extra for someone to shop and deliver for us.  A company called Instacart does it.  This is the gig economy and like with Lyft there are upsides and downsides.  In our case, we connected with the market, not Instacart.  And our shopper may have gotten several other people's orders at the same time.  We only live about 1.5 miles from the market.

Gigworker.com did an analysis of Instacart the other day that you can look at.  In any case, there's no the extra hazard pay for potentially getting the virus.  I left more tip than they suggested, but what they suggested was pretty low.  But you also had to add the tip when you ordered, not after the delivery.   And then there's the question of how we deal with the groceries without knowing whether anyone who touched them has the virus.  I brought the bag in wearing gloves and put the veggies that needed refrigerating into an empty drawer to let them sit a couple of days.  When I got everything squared away, I washed my hands thoroughly.

One of the things I was happy to get from the market was seeds.  

I haven't planted too many vegies in recent years because our yard is so shaded by trees.  But it seems like a good idea to have some fresh veggies one can grow oneself this year.  And I do look forward to the early dandelion leaves - an abundant freebie in our yard that can be cooked in stir-fries and omelets.   They're very high in Vitamin A and K, and we don't use any pesticides in our yard.  

With the added part of the deck, we have a little more sunshine and we can use pots.  But I think the broccoli is the only thing I can plant early inside.  The others seem like they should go directly in the ground.  But maybe I can put some seeds in pots inside and then take them out when it's warm enough.  

And here's a last picture while I was sitting downstairs in what we call our greenhouse reading a book with the sun streaming in.  It's getting crowded down there and I've been trying to make room so I can plant some seeds.  

Alaska COVID-19 Count Monday March 30, 2020 - New Cases = 5, New Deaths =0, New Hospitalizations =0

My Calendar chart of new cases:

CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH 2020
Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
new/total	hos=hospital		12th  = 0/0	13th = 1/1	14th = 0/1	15th = 0/1
16th = 0/1	17th = 2/3	18th = 3/6	19th = 3/9	20th = 3/12	21st= 2/14	22nd= 8/22
23rd=14/36	24th =6/42 1 hos 1 dead	25th = 17/59 3 hos 1 dead	26th = 10/69 3 hos 1 dead	27th =16/89 5 hos 2 dead	28th = 13/102 6 hos 2 dead	29th=12/114 6 hos  3 dead
30th= 5/119 6 hos  3 dead

We had the fewest new cases since March 21.  That's good.  Though we also had fewer new tests (59).  It would be nice if we could start leveling off and having fewer new positive cases.  But I'm not holding my breath.  Not yet.

State Charts

While I've been complaining about the lack of numbers, they've been down there in that line right above.  But since I've been getting screenshots, that link doesn't work.  So I checked it today and it downloads a table with all from March  to the present that looks like this (not enough room to put the whole thing, but if you're interested you can go to the link below.

ASPHL is Alaska State Public Health Lab

Here's the link:  COVID-19 testing data for Alaska residents in CSV format

And here's my chart, updated for today.  And with the link above, I was able to get exact numbers to correct what I had for March 26.  

Alaska Covid-19 Data NewFor... by Steve on Scribd

How To Convince People To Do The Right Thing To Avoid COVID-19 - COVID-19 The Video Game

From The Atlantic:

 "Now the virus has spread to almost every country, infecting at least 446,000 people whom we know about, and many more whom we do not. It has crashed economies and broken health-care systems, filled hospitals and emptied public spaces."

Now reimagine this as a video game with thousands of players online together.  Their goal is to avoid getting infected, keep their grandparents alive, keep hospitals from having to turn people away.

How many rounds would it take for them to figure out they have to self-isolate and wash their hands?

Wouldn't it be better if they could figure this out in a video game instead of real life?

Let's imagine another version of the game, aimed at policy makers.  How many rounds would they have to play to figure out how to keep the virus from spreading.  And how NOT slowing it down will affect the economy and the health care system?

Was there money in the stimulus package for gaming companies?


I'd note also that the use of war metaphors for every crisis tells us more about who we are than it helps solve problems.   This is a natural disaster.  Like with a hurricane we have to avoid the fury of the storm.  We have to avoid hosting the virus.  Going to war with nature is the source of the biggest human problems in the world today - climate change, ocean acidification, species loss, industrial waste caused illnesses, economic disparities, etc.  Finding a sustainable balance within nature is NOT war.

This Corona Virus game is about whether people can cooperate to save themselves and each other from harm and death.

Sunday March 29, 2020 Alaska COVID-19 Report - 1 New Death to 3, 1 New Hospitalization to 7, 12 New Cases to 114

Today's new State report is up.  First, here's my calendar summary.

CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH 2020
Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
new/total	hos=hospital		12th  = 0/0	13th = 1/1	14th = 0/1	15th = 0/1
16th = 0/1	17th = 2/3	18th = 3/6	19th = 3/9	20th = 3/12	21st= 2/14	22nd= 8/22
23rd=14/36	24th =6/42 1 hos 1 dead	25th = 17/59 3 hos 1 dead	26th = 10/69 3 hos 1 dead	27th =16/89 5 hos 2 dead	28th = 13/102 6 hos 2 dead	29th=12/114 7 hos  3 dead

We have 12 new cases for a total of 114 confirmed cases of COVID-19.

We also have one more death since yesterday, for a total of 3.  

We have one more hospitalized, for a total of 7.

 The last few days the number of tests has been going up and down fairly sharply.  Not sure why.  Again, not sure if the numbers reflect the number of tests on a particular day, or tests reported to the state on a particular day.  Or even whether they are tests given or tests results.  Or whether it could mean any of those.


My chart tracking cases over time.  I've been making changes that reflect changes in the data offered by the state.  The chart immediately above used to just be negative cases.  One can still calculate the negative tests by subtracting total tests on a day from new confirmed cases.  But you can tell if they are from the State labs or private labs.  That info might be meaningful (not sure) but I changed the chart because the original info was no longer available.
Today I've added four new columns to show info that started showing up March 24 - deaths and hospitalizations.

Alaska Covid-19 Data NewFor... by Steve on Scribd

Charts Are Helpful, But Be Careful

I'm playing with the charting abilities of Numbers (Mac's Excel).  It's really easy to make charts, even if you have no idea what they mean.  So let's look at two charts I made to help you see how using different scales affect how good or bad things look.

First - a chart with cumulative cases and cumulative deaths over time in Alaska.

This scale seems reasonably useful for total cases (114), but the scale  really hard to see the deaths (3).

I also made a chart of just the deaths.  It shows how radically different it looks with a different scale.

Here, the curve for deaths looks a lot like the curve for cases.  You'll note there were 3 days with one death before the second death.  Then two days before the third death.  And there was a long lag time (14 days) from the first reported case to the first reported death.  So we can assume that deaths from earlier confirmed cases are going to start leading to a quicker increase - but at a much lower rate - of deaths.  But keep your skepticism handy since I'm treading beyond what I have a firm understanding of.

The State posted this additional information:

"The Alaska Department of Health and Social Services (DHSS) today announced 12 new cases of COVID-19 in six  Alaska communities – Anchorage (4), Eagle River (1), Fairbanks (4), North Pole (1), Juneau (1) and Ketchikan (1).
DHSS also reported the third death of an Alaskan from COVID-19. The individual was a 73-year-old Anchorage resident. The patient was tested on March 23 and admitted to an Anchorage hospital and passed away on the evening of March 28.
Five of the new cases are older adults (60+); two are adults aged 30-59; four are younger adults aged 19-29 and one is under 18.  Six are female and six are male. Six of the cases are close contacts of previously diagnosed cases; one is travel-related and five are still under investigation.
So far the communities in Alaska that have had laboratory-confirmed cases include Anchorage (including JBER), Eagle River/Chugiak, Girdwood, Fairbanks, North Pole, Homer, Juneau, Ketchikan, Palmer, Seward, Soldotna and Sterling."

US Senate candidate Al Gross, an orthopedic surgeon, held a large phone question and answer session on the Corona Virus today.  His wife, a pediatrician, also answered some of the questions.  He sounded a little stiff in the opening, but once he started answering questions he seemed more relaxed.


For all the posts on the state reports click on the tag/label Alaska COVID-19 Count.