Tuesday, May 05, 2015

Election Results #7 - Berkowitz 59% Demboski 40.9% With 53,761Votes Counted - This Election Is Pretty Much Over

I don't see a way for Demboski to catch up at this point.  There are some 10,000 or so early votes still to be counted.  But I would imagine the spread will be similar to tonight.  But Demboski almost all of them to win.  Not gonna happen. 
source

You know, it will be hard for Demboski to concede to someone who supports fathers marrying their sons.   (The picture of Jonathan Swift is my sarcasm alert icon.)

53,761 votes cast - more than election night in April.  But only 92.7% of all the precincts. 

DEMBOSKI, Amy     22,000 40.93%
BERKOWITZ, Ethan 31,744 59.07%

Election Update #6: Berkowitz 60,5% Demboski 39.4% 46,049 Votes Counted

21:30pm


46,049 votes in.  Just 3,000 or so less than the April election night total.  Has there ever been an Anchorage runoff election with more voters than the main election?  



DEMBOSKI, Amy     18,177   39.47%
BERKOWITZ, Ethan 27,872   60.53%




Election Update #5: Berkowitz 60.4% Demboski 39.6% with 39,217 Votes Counted

At the end of the night in April, 24% of the voters had voted or 49,288 votes.  After the early/absentee votes were counted it was up to 55,260 (26.1%)

Keep that in mind.  That means we could be  3/4 of the way  there  for tonight with this count. 


Time: 21:23pm
Number (%) of votes:  39,217 (19%)

DEMBOSKI, Amy     15,545   39.64%
BERKOWITZ, Ethan 23,672   60.36%

Election Update #4: Berkowitz 62.5% Demboski 37.5%

I would expect Demboski votes to pick up as the South Anchorage and Eagle River/Chugiak votes get counted.



TIME: 21:13 pm
Votes cast: 24120                 11%


DEMBOSKI, Amy       9038 37.47%
BERKOWITZ, Ethan 15082 62.53%


Trying to make this simpler so that Feedburner picks it up

Third Election Update: Berkowitz 62% - Demboski 37% with 12,375 Votes Counted

Let's remember that the votes are taken from the polling places to City Hall to be counted.  The closest polling places to City Hall are downtown where Berkowitz is expected to do well.  The ballots from Eagle River and Chugiak (Demboski's stronghold) will come in a little later. 

There also appear to be 960 new voters since the April election.  Then, there were 206,003 voters listed and tonight there are 206,993.  But remember, that number is very high - almost 90% of voting age folks in Anchorage.  Many have moved away or died, but haven't been purged from the voter list. 

We had 2.6% of votes (at least of the 206,963) counted at the last update. 

This time we have 5.98% counted - or 12,378 votes counted.

05/05/15
20:57:32

Registered Voters 206993 - Cards Cast 12378 5.98% Num. Report Precinct 124 - Num. Reporting 36 29.03%

MAYOR



Total
Number of Precincts
124
Precincts Reporting
36 29.0%
Times Counted
12378/206993 6.0%
Total Votes
12375

DEMBOSKI, Amy
4581 37.02%
BERKOWITZ, Ethan
7794 62.98%









Second Set of Election Results - Berkowitz 66% Demboski 33% with 5000+ Votes Counted




Election Summary Report
2015 Runoff Election
Summary for Jurisdiction Wide
Unofficial Results

05/05/15
20:47:29

Registered Voters 206993 - Cards Cast 5445 2.63%Num. Report Precinct 124 - Num. Reporting 20 16.13%

MAYOR



Total
Number of Precincts
124
Precincts Reporting
20 16.1%
Times Counted
5445/206993 2.6%
Total Votes
5443

DEMBOSKI, Amy
1841 33.82%
BERKOWITZ, Ethan
3602 66.18%



Early Anchorage Election Results

First count at 8:37pm  - about 900 votes.




Registered Voters 206993 - Cards Cast 945 0.46%Num. Report Precinct 124 - Num. Reporting 5 4.03%

MAYOR



Total
Number of Precincts
124
Precincts Reporting
5 4.0%
Times Counted
945/206993 0.5%
Total Votes
945

DEMBOSKI, Amy
368 38.94%
BERKOWITZ, Ethan
577 61.06%









Election Night Off To Bad Start From This Blogger's Perspective

Here's a screen shot of the Muni's election page. (Because this is an image, the links won't work)





Note, there is a link for election results - but it's for the April election.

I can't find a link for today's election results. So, they either
wipe out the April results to do tonight's,
or . . .? ?

This has been the place to get results for the last several Muni elections. 

I do have an email in asking about this, but I suspect they are busy doing other things.

 Maybe I should check Twitter for this.

Two minutes later:  Bingo.  I found this link - http://results.muni.org/Runoff.htm

 Nothing up yet. There was a run around noon that showed no results. But at least I have a place to look when the results come in.

No Matter How Much Damage Humans Do, This Much Won't Change


Big waves this week.  From Venice pier this afternoon.





































































More Venice Pier posts:  Here's Pier Review and  Pier Review 2 with some big waves.   And more waves from Venice Pier with my better camera.  And finally Rafael catching a great white shark from the end of Venice Pier.

Monday, May 04, 2015

The Role Of Audio In Anchorage's Mayoral Race

First there was the audio of former assembly member Dan Coffey in the primaries.  It was a message left on assembly member Allan Tesche's answer machine.  Tesche's number was, apparently, accidentally dialed, while Coffey was talking to assembly member Starr about how buying votes from assembly members.  It had been highly publicized when Tesche discovered it on his answer machine back in 2008.  And Coffey, in a mea culpa page on this campaign website,  even linked to the transcript.  But when a TV station said they would put the audio online, Coffey's attorney threatened to sue.  Coffey, later said no, he wouldn't sue. 


And for the last week before the election a second very different kind of audio tape has been the focus of attention.  First Jerry Prevo said he'd heard about it from someone and told the nasty to his congregation.

Then Amy Demboski was asked about it on the air.  The conservative talk show host said he thought she would denounce the allegation as ridiculous.  Instead, she said she heard it and she didn't know that he (her opponent, Ethan Berkowitz) didn't mean it. 

But the station said the audio didn't exist.  They recycle them after a certain amount of time. 

The allegation?  That Ethan Berkowitz said he not only supported gay marriage, but also that a man could marry his own son. 

Once you have an allegation like that, and the tape is missing, there's no way you can totally undo the damage.  People who want to believe the worst will believe it. 

And now there's a post on Joe Miller's website with Bernadette Wilson mysteriously finding the tape and playing edited bits of what is a very hypothetical debate.  It's not clear what has been cut out, but Berkowitz is  clearly saying he's not talking about sex, but about a last resort to protect a child in areas like passing on property rights.   Here's Nat Herz' coverage of it:

"The recording showed the conversation between the two hosts started as a legal debate on the same-sex marriage issue in the appellate courts, with Berkowitz taking a libertarian position that consenting adults should be allowed to choose their own relationships. An unidentified caller took the issue further, asking Berkowitz whether a father and son 'should be allowed to marry if they’re both consenting adults.'
'If you're defining marriage as the bundle of rights and privileges that now accrue to people, yes,' Berkowitz said. In the show, he explained he was talking about financial and property rights, not incest, and on Monday, after the recording aired, said he had found himself 'frustrated' within a 'constrained hypothetical conversation.'”

I guess the Koch brothers' money that has been injected into this campaign and that paid for the commercial of their other Alaskan golden child Senator Dan Sullivan supporting Demboski, has bought a marketing team that has carefully built this up to release this tape the day before the election.

I can just say that while I've only had a few conversations with Berkowitz over the years, I know him well enough to know that he does not support incestuous marriages. As an academic, I can understand getting deep into hypotheticals,  But it's probably not something a politician should have let himself get baited into, even in a very hypothetical discussion.  We're talking about the only legislator to stand up on the floor of the house of representatives to protest Veco's interference with the legislative process on the oil tax vote. 

If I recall right, back in the early eighties, Tony Knowles stood up as an assembly member against, discrimination against gays, and was still elected mayor.  We're a long way beyond those days now.  By this time tomorrow night, we'll see whether Demboski is able to demagogue enough voters to win this election.  I'm guessing not.  The allegation may resonate with some, but for most, it will seem like what it is - a lame attempt to smear an opponent.   But if she does lose, she'll still be on the assembly, and now that she's tasted this much attention and power, she's not going to walk away from it. 

Early Voting Anchorage April 23,2015


And given early voting, a lot of folks will have already voted long before the tape was released.  When I voted almost two weeks ago, there was a longer line than when I voted early for the main election in April.