Third Election Update: Berkowitz 62% - Demboski 37% with 12,375 Votes Counted

Let's remember that the votes are taken from the polling places to City Hall to be counted.  The closest polling places to City Hall are downtown where Berkowitz is expected to do well.  The ballots from Eagle River and Chugiak (Demboski's stronghold) will come in a little later. 

There also appear to be 960 new voters since the April election.  Then, there were 206,003 voters listed and tonight there are 206,993.  But remember, that number is very high - almost 90% of voting age folks in Anchorage.  Many have moved away or died, but haven't been purged from the voter list. 

We had 2.6% of votes (at least of the 206,963) counted at the last update. 

This time we have 5.98% counted - or 12,378 votes counted.

05/05/15
20:57:32

Registered Voters 206993 - Cards Cast 12378 5.98%

Num. Report Precinct 124 - Num. Reporting 36 29.03%

MAYOR
		Total
Number of Precincts		124
Precincts Reporting		36	29.0%
Times Counted		12378/206993	6.0%
Total Votes		12375
DEMBOSKI, Amy		4581	37.02%
BERKOWITZ, Ethan		7794	62.98%

Second Set of Election Results - Berkowitz 66% Demboski 33% with 5000+ Votes Counted

Election Summary Report 2015 Runoff Election Summary for Jurisdiction Wide Unofficial Results 05/05/15 20:47:29

Registered Voters 206993 - Cards Cast 5445 2.63%

Num. Report Precinct 124 - Num. Reporting 20 16.13%

MAYOR Total Number of Precincts 124 Precincts Reporting 20 16.1% Times Counted 5445/206993 2.6% Total Votes 5443 DEMBOSKI, Amy 1841 33.82% BERKOWITZ, Ethan 3602 66.18%

Early Anchorage Election Results

First count at 8:37pm  - about 900 votes.

Registered Voters 206993 - Cards Cast 945 0.46%

Num. Report Precinct 124 - Num. Reporting 5 4.03%

MAYOR
		Total
Number of Precincts		124
Precincts Reporting		5	4.0%
Times Counted		945/206993	0.5%
Total Votes		945
DEMBOSKI, Amy		368	38.94%
BERKOWITZ, Ethan		577	61.06%

Election Night Off To Bad Start From This Blogger's Perspective

Here's a screen shot of the Muni's election page. (Because this is an image, the links won't work)

Note, there is a link for election results - but it's for the April election.

I can't find a link for today's election results. So, they either
wipe out the April results to do tonight's,
or . . .? ?

This has been the place to get results for the last several Muni elections. 

I do have an email in asking about this, but I suspect they are busy doing other things.

 Maybe I should check Twitter for this.

Two minutes later:  Bingo.  I found this link - http://results.muni.org/Runoff.htm

 Nothing up yet. There was a run around noon that showed no results. But at least I have a place to look when the results come in.

No Matter How Much Damage Humans Do, This Much Won't Change

Big waves this week.  From Venice pier this afternoon.

More Venice Pier posts:  Here's Pier Review and  Pier Review 2 with some big waves.   And more waves from Venice Pier with my better camera.  And finally Rafael catching a great white shark from the end of Venice Pier.

The Role Of Audio In Anchorage's Mayoral Race

First there was the audio of former assembly member Dan Coffey in the primaries.  It was a message left on assembly member Allan Tesche's answer machine.  Tesche's number was, apparently, accidentally dialed, while Coffey was talking to assembly member Starr about how buying votes from assembly members.  It had been highly publicized when Tesche discovered it on his answer machine back in 2008.  And Coffey, in a mea culpa page on this campaign website,  even linked to the transcript.  But when a TV station said they would put the audio online, Coffey's attorney threatened to sue.  Coffey, later said no, he wouldn't sue. 


And for the last week before the election a second very different kind of audio tape has been the focus of attention.  First Jerry Prevo said he'd heard about it from someone and told the nasty to his congregation.

Then Amy Demboski was asked about it on the air.  The conservative talk show host said he thought she would denounce the allegation as ridiculous.  Instead, she said she heard it and she didn't know that he (her opponent, Ethan Berkowitz) didn't mean it. 

But the station said the audio didn't exist.  They recycle them after a certain amount of time. 

The allegation?  That Ethan Berkowitz said he not only supported gay marriage, but also that a man could marry his own son. 

Once you have an allegation like that, and the tape is missing, there's no way you can totally undo the damage.  People who want to believe the worst will believe it. 

And now there's a post on Joe Miller's website with Bernadette Wilson mysteriously finding the tape and playing edited bits of what is a very hypothetical debate.  It's not clear what has been cut out, but Berkowitz is  clearly saying he's not talking about sex, but about a last resort to protect a child in areas like passing on property rights.   Here's Nat Herz' coverage of it:

"The recording showed the conversation between the two hosts started as a legal debate on the same-sex marriage issue in the appellate courts, with Berkowitz taking a libertarian position that consenting adults should be allowed to choose their own relationships. An unidentified caller took the issue further, asking Berkowitz whether a father and son 'should be allowed to marry if they’re both consenting adults.'
'If you're defining marriage as the bundle of rights and privileges that now accrue to people, yes,' Berkowitz said. In the show, he explained he was talking about financial and property rights, not incest, and on Monday, after the recording aired, said he had found himself 'frustrated' within a 'constrained hypothetical conversation.'”

I guess the Koch brothers' money that has been injected into this campaign and that paid for the commercial of their other Alaskan golden child Senator Dan Sullivan supporting Demboski, has bought a marketing team that has carefully built this up to release this tape the day before the election.

I can just say that while I've only had a few conversations with Berkowitz over the years, I know him well enough to know that he does not support incestuous marriages. As an academic, I can understand getting deep into hypotheticals,  But it's probably not something a politician should have let himself get baited into, even in a very hypothetical discussion.  We're talking about the only legislator to stand up on the floor of the house of representatives to protest Veco's interference with the legislative process on the oil tax vote. 

If I recall right, back in the early eighties, Tony Knowles stood up as an assembly member against, discrimination against gays, and was still elected mayor.  We're a long way beyond those days now.  By this time tomorrow night, we'll see whether Demboski is able to demagogue enough voters to win this election.  I'm guessing not.  The allegation may resonate with some, but for most, it will seem like what it is - a lame attempt to smear an opponent.   But if she does lose, she'll still be on the assembly, and now that she's tasted this much attention and power, she's not going to walk away from it. 

Early Voting Anchorage April 23,2015

And given early voting, a lot of folks will have already voted long before the tape was released.  When I voted almost two weeks ago, there was a longer line than when I voted early for the main election in April.

LA Times Article On Anchorage Mayoral Race Focuses On Police

Kyle Hopkins wrote a piece on the Anchorage mayoral race for the LA Times which was in today' paper.  The title in the print addition was "Police can't lose in Anchorage mayoral race."  It mentions the drop in the police force, the the spike in murders this year, and Mayor Sullivan saying it was just a quirk. 

The article says both candidates in the runoff would boost the number of police and reintroduce the special units that focused on robbery and community policing. 

But the article doesn't mention the stark difference between the candidates over AO-37, the labor ordinance that voters overturned last November or how the police department went from a defined benefits retirement system to a defined contribution system. 

Why Don't Anchorage Mayoral Candidates Fill Out The Basic Muni Job Application Form?

Suppose you were hiring someone to run an organization with a  $400 million budget?  Would you ask applicants' PR firms to write you some copy about their clients to evaluate their merits?  Hell no.

But that's what Anchorage voters get from candidates for mayor (and assembly and school board). The Muni just gets their names and addresses. (See Municipal requirements for filing.) The financial disclosure info is fairly complex, and the information on financial interests and campaign donors is important, but doesn't give us the kind of resume information that job applicants normally submit. [Update 5/3/15 though Anon's links in the comments do give us some employer info.]  All we get is what they post on their websites and send to the League of Women Voters.  We get lots of 'interview' in debates, but little basic background data. 

We're left to the mercy of the media to find out what our candidates' careers have been like.  Neither Berkowitz's nor Demboski's websites tell us very much about their education or work experience. 

What would the voters and the media know, from day one, if the candidates had to fill out the same form most municipal job applicants have to fill out? 

MOA job application requires:

• Criminal Convictions - Have you ever been convicted of any violation of the law, other than minor traffic violations?(A DUI/DWI must be listed.) If yes, provide nature of conviction(s), date(s) and sentence(s). If more space is needed, provide an attachment.
• Education
• High School
• College and Graduate School
• Technical School
• Employment History
• Describe all work history beginning with your current or most recent job. Include volunteer and military experience, including military rank. If necessary, use additional pages or a resume as long as it provides all required information
• Failure to provide complete and accurate information regarding each job held, including providing misleading or false information, may result in disqualification for the position or termination upon discovery.
• For each job
• Job Title
• Name/Title of Supervisor with phone number
• Company Name plus city and state
• Ending pay, hours per week
• Employment dates from __ to __
• Reasons for leaving
• Duties and Responsibilities
• Then there’s some boxes for:
• List the types of computer software and programs you have used.
• List any other special qualifications, skills and/or abilities.
• List relatives employed by the Municipality of Anchorage  (Name, Relationship, Department)

Reporters and voters wouldn't have to dig to get this basic information that's fundamental in each hiring situation and necessary to compare candidates.

 Instead we get cosmetically enhanced mini-bios, like these from the League of Women Voters whose voter pamphlet is linked from the Municipal election site:

Ethan Berkowitz
Coming to Anchorage in 1990, I started my career in the state criminal appeals court and then working as a prosecutor.  My wife Mara and I are raising our two kids here.
We enjoy Anchorage’s great public schools, first-class trails, and vibrant, diverse community.
I served West Anchorage in the Alaska Legislature for ten years, championing fiscal responsibility and energy development.
As a small business owner with a background in telecommunications, public safety and energy development, I will bring unique experience to the mayor’s office to make Anchorage a safe, secure and strong community.

Amy Demboski Amy currently serves on the Anchorage Assembly representing Chugiak, Eagle River and JBER. Amy graduated from Chugiak High School and holds degrees in Justice and History, as well as an MBA with an emphasis in Finance.
Her background in business development and management give her a practical understanding on how to lead corporations, budget, and measure return on investment. She has held multiple public service positions including commissioner on the Judicial Conduct Commission, Chair of the Municipal Budget Advisory Commission, and Community Council President.
Amy will focus on essential services: public safety, infrastructure, and education, coupled with sound fiscal policy.

Berkowitz doesn't even give his educational background, but at least he is profiled on Wikipedia.  Perhaps he thought Harvard and Hastings College of Law might intimidate people.  But if you are weighing educational background, which candidate's brain do you think got the better workout?  Berkowitz with his Harvard and Hastings or Demoski with UAA and an MBA from an online college based in Alabama?  That's not to say you couldn't get a decent online degree, but if you had applicants with those credentials (and Muni voters do), which way would you lean? 

We don't know, for example, what businesses Berkowitz was involved with and what he did for them?  Nor do we know what  "multi-million dollar businesses" Demboski's website says she built and managed.   And I've only seen hints here and there online that they were healthcare related, specifically dental practices. But I don't have enough information to check with the dentists to see to what extent Demboski's work was what made them 'multi-million dollar businesses.'

The lack of such basic information on the candidates, means it's only in the last week of the election that we're learning that Demboski was in the Air Force, but we don't know for how long or the nature of her discharge.  You'd think someone representing JBER on the Assembly would have her Air Force experience listed.  Why leave it off?  If a Muni job applicant left that information off, they could be eliminated from the pool of applicants, or if hired for the job, fired when it was discovered. 

We're essentially hiring the CEO for a $400 million a year enterprise.  Surely an informed public should have more hard information to base their decisions on than we have.

I'm not sure who has to authorize it (can the Clerk's office do this without Assembly approval?), but I think at the very minimum, all applicants for Municipal office  - mayor, assembly and school board members - should have to fill out a municipal job application form with the same obligations as any other job applicant:

APPLICANT AUTHORIZATION AND CERTIFICATION - I AUTHORIZE the Municipality of Anchorage (MOA) to obtain any information relating to the facts provided in this application from schools, employers, criminal justice agencies, individuals, ETC. This information may include, but is not limited to, academic, performance, attendance, achievement, personal history, disciplinary, arrest, and conviction records. 

I DIRECT you to release such information to the MOA regardless of any agreement I may have made with you previously to the contrary.  

I RELEASE any employer, including individuals such as records custodians, from any and all liability for damages of whatever kind or nature which may at any time result on account of compliance, or any attempts to comply with this authorization.

I CERTIFY that the statements contained herein are true to the best of my knowledge. I understand that any incomplete, inaccurate, misleading, false or incorrect information may result in rejection of my application, disqualification from consideration, may render an appointment void and/or can be cause for my dismissal upon discovery.

I AGREE to submit to such tests and physical and/or mental examinations as the MOA may require.

If the Muni can require this of other employees, why not for the top job?  I realize that for regular employees the information collected is confidential and the public as a whole doesn't get the right to verify all the data.  But I know it wouldn't be too complicated to have the same people at the Muni who vet regular employees to check on candidates as well.

Then the public would have real information, not pr puff, with which to weigh the merits of each candidate.  

Alaska Bike To Work Commuters Double US Average

Governor Walker declared this Bike Month in Anchorage.  

From the Governor's Proclamation

"WHEREAS, according to 2014 Benchmarking Report from Alliance for Biking and Walking in conjunction with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the percentage of adults who bike to work in Alaska is approximately double the national average – a ranking of sixth in the nation. Alaska also has the third lowest rate of bicyclist and pedestrian fatalities; and. . ."  (emphasis added)

These numbers looked interesting so I looked up the report. (I did go to several data sessions at the Alaska Press Club last week, including one on how to check the data that's being pumped out like this.  Though, I've been doing that on this blog anyway.)

The Bike Walk Alliance website, requires you to leave your name and contact info to download the report.  I understand they would like to have a mailing list of folks interested, but I don't like being on so many mailing lists.  AARP has posted the whole report on their site.   It's 250 pages, lots of pretty pictures and charts.

Here are some things I found out as I scanned through it.

"Additionally, the following agencies and organizations provided funds for the midsized cities pilot benchmarking effort included in this report for the first time:
Bicycle Commuters of Anchorage
City of Burlington
Bike Chattanooga 
Great Rivers Greenway
Bike/Walk Alliance for Missoula
Missoula in Motion
City of Albany
PittsburghTODAY

Here are some of the titillating numbers for Alaska bikers (and walkers).

Screen shot of Study, p.43

Screen shot of Study, p.44

The explanation of how they collected the data was not totally clear to me.  However, it did say that the Anchorage data were collected on Bike To Work day, which is probably the day when the most people in Anchorage ride to work.  Including lots of people who normally don't bike much at all.   I doubt that is representative of how many people regularly ride to work.  And I suspect that some bike groups - like Anchorage Bicycle Commuters - go out of their way to do counts, which boosts those cities compared to other cities.

Screen shot of Study, p. 67

 So, how did they get numbers for people walking to work for Alaska? 


But you have to use the data you have and this sort of project will spark more interest in biking and in the reliability of the stats. And they said this was a pilot benchmarking effort for mid-sized cities. 

Also note that Alaska has the highest percent of people walking to work.  I suspect that has to do with the number of very small communities in Alaska.  But then the chart doesn't show how pedestrians were counted.  But maybe that was somewhere else because it's statewide data, not just Anchorage data. 


Here are some other interesting bits from the study. 

Commuters by Income

While bicycling is distributed evenly among all income groups, lower income workers make up a disproportionate share of those who walk to work. Nationwide data from ACS reveal that nearly 45% of people who walk to work earn less than $15,000 per year. On average, 62% of people who walk to work in the large cities studied for this report earn below $35,000 a year. San Francisco and New York City have the most even income distribution among people who walk to work, with all income groups well-represented. (p.51)

Possible Influencing Factors

• Climate—Weak Relationship
• Does climate influence the choice to bicycle? Montana and Alaska, for example, are among states with the coldest temperatures, yet are also among the states with the highest levels of bicycling and walking to work.
• Car Ownership—Strong Relationship 
• According to the 2011 ACS, cities with the highest levels of bicycling and walking have lower car ownership rates.

Q: When's The Cordova Road To Child's Glacier/ Million Dollar Bridge Going To Be Ready? A: It's Not.

Alaska DOT Photo

We had taken the road at the end of July 2011.  The road was closed in August 2011.   On November 23, 2011, I published this post:  Road to Child's Glacier and Million Dollar Bridge Closed Until after 2015.    I recently realized, hey, it's 2015.  I should check on whether the road was ready yet. 

So I emailed the Department of Transportation and got this quick reply:

"Hi Steve,

The bridge is still standing, but the approach to the bridge washed out with the shifting of the Copper River.

There is no plan at this time to rebuild the bridge, we just don't have the construction dollars available.

Please let me know if you have additional questions, or need more information.

Details on the bridge are available here:  http://dot.alaska.gov/nreg/bridge339/

Best,
Meadow Bailey"   (emphasis added)

The link takes you to this undated (Meadow emailed again and said it was 'this winter' so after the March 2014 link below)  announcement:

Copper River Highway Copper Delta Bridge #339

There has been a recent decision to close the project due to the lack of funding for design or construction.

History

The 56-mile Copper River Highway begins in Cordova and ends at the Million Dollar Bridge. The road provides access to vast areas of the Copper River Valley, is used frequently by hunters and recreationists, and potentially supports proposed resource development.
Bridge No. 339 is one of 11 bridges crossing the Copper River Delta. The bridge was constructed in 1977. The hydraulic design of the existing bridge was based upon a predicted flood event of 21,300 cubic feet per second (159,300 gallons per second).
Naturally occurring changes in flow between river channels across the delta led to a dramatic increase in the amount of water flowing under Bridge No. 339. This increase in flow was first noticed in 2009. In 2010 ADOT&PF along with the U.S. Geological Survey began a comprehensive monitoring program at the site. During the summer of 2011 the flow was measured at 89,000 cubic feet per second (665,800 gallons per second).
Early in 2011 a project was created to investigate ways to reduce flows and preserve the bridge. However, field measurements revealed that the increased flow has scoured away 50 feet of the river bed under the bridge. The scour has compromised the vertical and lateral structural capacity of the bridge piers and abutments. These conditions constitute structural failure of the bridge, requiring that it be closed.

Did you read carefully?  The bridge was built in 1977 "based upon a predicted flood event of 21,300 cubic feet per second (159,300 gallons per second)."  You can compare that to how many gallons per second go into your car at the gas station.

However, in 2011, the water flow (presumably a regular event, not a flood event) was 89,000 cubic feet per second (665,800 gallons per second)."   That's almost five times greater.   



And this DOT page has links to other updates, including a three page pdf in March 2014 that says, among other things:

• "There are two different bridge options
• Option #1
  Decked Bulb-Tee Girders on Drilled Shaft Piers.
  Estimated construction cost: $66,250,000
•  Option #2
  Box Girders on Pipe Pile Extension Piers.
  Estimated construction cost:  $50,700,000"
• "During the winter the road beyond milepost 16 is not maintained and is closed to vehicle traffic (typically November thru mid April).  The 2010 summer Average Daily Traffic Volume (ADT) at Bridge 339 was 65."  So, if we count summer as mid April to November 1

That means, say if summer is from April 15 to October 31, we'd have 168 days times 65 cars or a total of about 10,000 cars, which would mean, for one summer, each car crossing the bridge would be, using the cheaper bridge, about $5000.  And over 30 years - the life of the original bridge - at the same rate, the toll for each car would reduce to about $160 per vehicle.  (And this doesn't consider maintenance and repairs.)  Of course, other roads and bridges in Alaska aren't calculated this way.  It might be interesting if they were.  Say, how much would that road from Juneau to the mine they want to build cost per vehicle over 30 years? 

But there's more:

• "Since the bridge was closed in August of 2011, the river has continued to migrate east, washing out an additional 1,000 feet of the Copper River Highway.  Erosion is now threatening Bridge No. 340 located 1,100 feet east of Bridge No. 339."  

In any case, anyone  who knows about the price of oil and the state of the Alaska budget knows neither of these options is going to happen any time soon.

If you want to get out to the Million Dollar bridge or to Child's Glacier, which in 2011 had a beautiful campground, you're going to have to go by boat or float plane.