[This is the second post on this topic. The
first post focused on the problems of determining the actual numbers of registered voters in Alaska which, if compared to the Alaska voting age population, would mean 96% of voting age Alaskans are registered.]
Overview
Few people voted Tuesday. The winners of the US Senate races got votes from between 3% and 9% of the voting age population. That means over 90% of the voting age population voted for someone else or didn't vote. 75% of the voting age population didn't vote at all.
Alaska's Population
The
US Census gives the population of Alaska in 2008 as 686,000.
The
Alaska Permanent Fund estimates the 2008 population as 679,720 and 2009 population as 692,314.
Registered Voters
That same Census Bureau estimates the voting age population of Alaska as 506,000 in 2008.
The Alaska Division of Voters, as of August 3, 2010,
says there are 487,575 registered voters. As I noted in a previous post, this would mean that Alaska has about 96% of its voter age population registered while the US average is closer to 70%.
How the Alaska Primaries Work
The Republican primary is a semi-closed primary. That means that only Republicans appear on the ballot and only Republicans and people not registered with another party can vote in the Republican primary. So, Republicans, independents, and undeclared voters can vote.
The other parties have a blanket primary. That means the other parties (Libertarian, Democratic, Alaska Independence, etc.) have their candidates all appear on one ballot and anyone, including Republicans, can vote on this ballot.
There were three ballots.
- ADL - This includes Alaska Independence Party, Democrats, and Libertarians, and both ballot measures.
- R - This is the Republican Ballot, plus both ballot measures.
- M - This is just for ballot measures. There are no candidates.
Each voter had to choose one ballot.
Republicans could choose any ballot.
Undeclared and Independents could choose any ballot.
Democrats, Alaska Independence, and Alaskan Libertarian Party members could choose the ADL ballot or M ballot.
I would guess that most voters probably did not understand all this and it had to be explained by the election workers.
There were two ballot measures.
- Prop. 1 to severely limit lobbying by public officials and employees and non-profits, but not businesses. (It lost resoundingly.)
- Prop. 2 to require doctors to notify the parents of girls under 18 before they can have an abortion. (It won 55%-44%)
How many people voted?
ADL Ballot Total votes for statewide races
- Senate - 30,855 (one Libertarian and three or four relatively unknown candidates)
- US House - 33,192 (one candidate, State Rep. Harry Crawford)
- Governor - 39,768 (two high profile Democrats, one Libertarian, one Alaskan Independent)
- Lt. Governor - 37,149 (three Democrats - one got 67% - and one Libertarian)
R Ballot Total votes for statewide races
- Senate - 92,386 (Lisa Murkowski and Joe Miller)
- US House - 62,590 (one candidate, incumbent Don Young)
- Governor - 90,938 (six candidates, including sitting Governor)
- Lt. Governor - 84,928 (seen by many as the most contested election, four candidates, three high profile)
M Ballot- Voters could vote on the ballot measures on all three types of ballots. So, these vote counts reflect all three ballots and are the highest. The election results do not distinguish the votes of the different ballots on these measures, or even how many people voted for them on which ballots.
Measure 1 - 134,471
Measure 2 - 134,981
Votes for US Senate Races
ADL Ballot
ADL |
|
|
| Total |
Number of Precincts |
| 438 |
|
Precincts Reporting |
| 438 | 100.0 % |
Times Counted |
| 41923/487456 | 8.6 % |
Total Votes |
| 30855 |
|
|
Haase, Fredrick | LIB | 4849 | 15.72% |
Kern, Jacob Seth | DEM | 5978 | 19.37% |
McAdams, Scott T. | DEM | 15347 | 49.74% |
Vondersaar, Frank J. | DEM | 4681 | 15.17% |
|
R Ballot
US SENATOR (R) | REP |
|
|
| Total |
Number of Precincts |
| 438 |
|
Precincts Reporting |
| 438 | 100.0 % |
Times Counted |
| 93170/487456 | 19.1 % |
Total Votes |
| 92386 |
|
|
Miller, Joe | REP | 47027 | 50.90% |
Murkowski, Lisa | REP | 45359 | 49.10% |
|
The box below shows that overall, 24% of Alaskans of voting age voted in the US Senate race. The Democratic winner had about 6% of Alaskans of voting age and the two Republicans who were almost tied, each had about 9%.
What does it mean?
Without good polling to hear from the voters themselves, the numbers leave a lot of unanswered questions.
1. How many Independents and Undeclared took Republican ballots, Democratic ballots, M ballots? My guess is they were more likely to take Republican ballots.
2. How many Independents and Undeclared voters voted for Miller? And Why? Clearly some were swayed by the Tea Party rhetoric. Some, no doubt, we're voting against Murkowski.
3. If Miller wins, how many of his voters this time will vote for him in the general? How may others can he attract in November? If the Tea Party folks were fired up, are there that many left who will vote for him in the Fall?
4. If Murkowski wins, what will the Miller voters do? Sit out? Vote for Murkowski? Vote for McAdams? Vote for the Libertarian Party candidate?
5. McAdams is just as unknown today as Miller was three months ago. Can he get Alaskans excited? He has a great Alaskan profile - fisherman, small town mayor, but basically a 'real person' rather than a politician. Will he attract Outside money to counter the money the Tea Party has sent to Miller?
6. Will Murkowski's close race make her seem more vulnerable even if she wins?
7. Is Miller so extreme that when his positions are known Alaskans will reject him when more show up to vote?
All these questions and others may or may not be answered in the next few months. I think the key point here is that really very few people have voted. That means that so far very little support has been given to anyone. If the Tea Party really spent half a million dollars on Miller, it means helped get a victory (even if he doesn't win) by spending $10.63 per vote.
All things being equal, Alaska voters tend to be more conservative. The key to winning for Democrats is identifying non-voters who can be cajoled at worst and excited at best to come out and vote. Obama energized a lot of Alaskan liberals to vote in 2008. But, that said, it's easier said than done.