Sunday, March 29, 2020

Sunday March 29, 2020 Alaska COVID-19 Report - 1 New Death to 3, 1 New Hospitalization to 7, 12 New Cases to 114

Today's new State report is up.  First, here's my calendar summary.


12th  = 0/013th = 1/114th = 0/115th = 0/1
16th = 0/117th = 2/318th = 3/619th = 3/920th = 3/1221st= 2/1422nd= 8/22
23rd=14/3624th =6/42
1 hos 1 dead
25th = 17/59
3 hos 1 dead
26th = 10/69
3 hos 1 dead
27th =16/89
5 hos 2 dead
28th = 13/102
6 hos 2 dead
7 hos  3 dead

We have 12 new cases for a total of 114 confirmed cases of COVID-19.

We also have one more death since yesterday, for a total of 3.  

We have one more hospitalized, for a total of 7.

 The last few days the number of tests has been going up and down fairly sharply.  Not sure why.  Again, not sure if the numbers reflect the number of tests on a particular day, or tests reported to the state on a particular day.  Or even whether they are tests given or tests results.  Or whether it could mean any of those.

My chart tracking cases over time.  I've been making changes that reflect changes in the data offered by the state.  The chart immediately above used to just be negative cases.  One can still calculate the negative tests by subtracting total tests on a day from new confirmed cases.  But you can tell if they are from the State labs or private labs.  That info might be meaningful (not sure) but I changed the chart because the original info was no longer available.
Today I've added four new columns to show info that started showing up March 24 - deaths and hospitalizations.

Charts Are Helpful, But Be Careful

I'm playing with the charting abilities of Numbers (Mac's Excel).  It's really easy to make charts, even if you have no idea what they mean.  So let's look at two charts I made to help you see how using different scales affect how good or bad things look.

First - a chart with cumulative cases and cumulative deaths over time in Alaska.

This scale seems reasonably useful for total cases (114), but the scale  really hard to see the deaths (3).

I also made a chart of just the deaths.  It shows how radically different it looks with a different scale.

Here, the curve for deaths looks a lot like the curve for cases.  You'll note there were 3 days with one death before the second death.  Then two days before the third death.  And there was a long lag time (14 days) from the first reported case to the first reported death.  So we can assume that deaths from earlier confirmed cases are going to start leading to a quicker increase - but at a much lower rate - of deaths.  But keep your skepticism handy since I'm treading beyond what I have a firm understanding of.

The State posted this additional information:

"The Alaska Department of Health and Social Services (DHSS) today announced 12 new cases of COVID-19 in six  Alaska communities – Anchorage (4), Eagle River (1), Fairbanks (4), North Pole (1), Juneau (1) and Ketchikan (1).
DHSS also reported the third death of an Alaskan from COVID-19. The individual was a 73-year-old Anchorage resident. The patient was tested on March 23 and admitted to an Anchorage hospital and passed away on the evening of March 28.
Five of the new cases are older adults (60+); two are adults aged 30-59; four are younger adults aged 19-29 and one is under 18.  Six are female and six are male. Six of the cases are close contacts of previously diagnosed cases; one is travel-related and five are still under investigation.
So far the communities in Alaska that have had laboratory-confirmed cases include Anchorage (including JBER), Eagle River/Chugiak, Girdwood, Fairbanks, North Pole, Homer, Juneau, Ketchikan, Palmer, Seward, Soldotna and Sterling."

US Senate candidate Al Gross, an orthopedic surgeon, held a large phone question and answer session on the Corona Virus today.  His wife, a pediatrician, also answered some of the questions.  He sounded a little stiff in the opening, but once he started answering questions he seemed more relaxed.

For all the posts on the state reports click on the tag/label Alaska COVID-19 Count.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Comments will be reviewed, not for content (except ads), but for style. Comments with personal insults, rambling tirades, and significant repetition will be deleted. Ads disguised as comments, unless closely related to the post and of value to readers (my call) will be deleted. Click here to learn to put links in your comment.