Tuesday, April 13, 2021

Bronson Again Increases His Lead Over Dunbar A Bit, But Progressive School Board Members Increase Their Leads

 I know, you're getting bored with me adding more numbers each night.  This is called lazy man's blogging.  The Election Office supplies numbers and I just put them up in the chart.  Is there any value added over what you get from other media?  At least here you can see how each new tally changes the vote.  But I hope there aren't too many more because I'm running out of room.  I'm going to have to shorten the names to make more space.  

Because of the space issue and also because the rankings didn't change, I didn't include rankings today.  

Every candidate got at least one more vote!

Bronson increased his lead by 118 over Dunbar.  But the progressives increased their leads in all the School Board races.  The mayor's race has three progressive candidates.  Their combined increase was 2,691.  The two far right candidates - Robbins and Bronson increased their votes by 2394.  The third major candidate - Bill Evans - is harder to peg.  He's been a conservative, but Bronson has blasted him for what Bronson saw as liberal actions such as supporting an LGBTQ ordinance.  So it's not clear how his 551 count in this race.  I'd guess most might go to Bronson, but a significant number would go to Dunbar.  

In any case, the runoff will again be a mail-in election (with some in-person voting options) and it will end May 11.  Dunbar and Bronson will be the candidates.  To have Dunbar trailing in the general election is likely to spur his supporters to the polls.  But Bronson's supporters, seeing him ahead, may also be motivated to vote.  

Mayor RaceTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturdayMonTue
EVANS, Bill 

999    (4)   

3,871  (4)  4,782 (4)5,505 (4)5,686   (4)6,281(4)6,832
SWANK,  Jr

36  (9)

139 (10)157 (10)173  (10)183  (10)206 (10)226
MARTINEZ, 

321 (6)

1,272  (6)1,658 (6)1,928  (6)2,006  (6)2,345(6)2,634
MOMIN, Reza

12  (11)

35  (13)39 (13)40  (13)44 (13)47(13)48
FALSEY, Bill

1,281 (3)

5,312  (3)6,703  (3)7,614  (3)7,826  (3)8,527(3)
9,257
HERNDON, H

91   (7)

303    (7)337  (7)366  (7)374  (7)400(7)428
ANTHONY, A

63  (8)

190   (8)233  (8)237  (8)242   (8)270 (9)290
BRONSON, D

3,116  (2)

12,986  (2)15,953 (2)18,716  (1)19,334  (1)21,807(1)23,597
BROWN, Jeffr

33  (10)

147   (9)196  (9)229  (9)236  (9)274(8)295
VERSTEEG, Ja

11  (12)

31  (14)35  (14)36  (14)36 (14)37 (14)41
ROBBINS, Mi

745   (5)

3,097   (5)3,766 (5)4,324  (5)4,457  (5)5061(5)5,542
DUNBAR, For

3,701 (1)

13,711 (1)16,458 (1)18,300 (2)18,812  (2)20,566(2)22,238
COLBRY, Darin

8  (14)

18  (15)21 (15)25 (15)25  (15)29 (15)30
WESTFALL, Jo

12 (11)

48  (11)61  (11)67  (11)68 (11)73(11)79
KERN, Jacob S

 (13)

38   (12)41 (12)43  (12)45 (12)50 (12)51







Total10,43841,19850,43057,60359,37465,97372,652


In the School Board races the progressive candidates increased their leads with this new batch of votes.  That's a change from the last couple of nights.

Kelly Lessens increased her lead over Judy Norton Eledge  to 275.  Yesterday it was down to 92 votes.  .
Pat Higgins increased his lead over Sami Graham to 414.  Yesterday it was 174.  
Dora Wilson increased her lead over Kim Paulson to 6,862. Yesterday it was 6,338.   This is the biggest lead anyone has.  
And Carl Jacobs increased his lead to 1,510 from 1,299 yesterday.  Carl also got the most votes of any individual candidate, but that's basically because there were only two candidates in the race.



SCHOOL BOARD SEAT B (1-YEAR TERM) (Vote for 1)

Precincts Reported: 0 of 123 (0.00%)

Total

Times Cast

72,652 / 236,619

30.70%

Candidate

Party

Total

ELEDGE, Judy Norton

24,179

38.40%

STEWART, Marilyn

7,190

11.42%

COX, Mark Anthony

7,149

11.35%

LESSENS, Kelly

24,454

38.83%

Total Votes

62,972

Total

Unresolved Write-In

538

SCHOOL BOARD SEAT E (Vote for 1)

Precincts Reported: 0 of 123 (0.00%)

Total

Times Cast

72,652 / 236,619

30.70%

Candidate

Party

Total

HIGGINS, Pat

20,651

32.97%

HILDE, Alisha

7,968

12.72%

BLATCHFORD, Edgar

5,066

8.09%

BLAKESLEE, Rachel

6,173

9.86%

GRAHAM, Sami

20,237

32.31%

WILLIAMS, Nial Sherwood

2,542

4.06%

Total Votes

62,637

Total

Unresolved Write-In

571

Page: 3 of 14

4/13/2021 4:41:11 PM

SCHOOL BOARD SEAT F (Vote for 1)

Precincts Reported: 0 of 123 (0.00%)

Total

Times Cast

72,652 / 236,619

30.70%

Candidate

Party

Total

SANDERS, Marcus

9,830

15.95%

PAULSON, Kim

20,809

33.76%

LORING, Dan

3,219

5.22%

WILSON, Dora

27,771

45.06%

Total Votes

61,629

Total

Unresolved Write-In

628

SCHOOL BOARD SEAT G (Vote for 1)

Precincts Reported: 0 of 123 (0.00%)

Total

Times Cast

72,652 / 236,619

30.70%

Candidate

Party

Total

VAKALIS, Elisa

29,280

48.74%

JACOBS, Carl

30,790

51.26%

Total Votes

60,070

Total

Unresolved Write-In

1,076

Monday, April 12, 2021

6,599 More Votes Counted - Conservatives Gain, But Leads Don't Change

 Dave Bronson gained 2,473 votes from the last tally Saturday and increased his lead over Forrest Dunbar by 1,241 and now leads by a total of 1,754.  (Dunbar gained 1,754 votes in this tally.)

But the rankings are all the same except numbers 8 and 9 switched.

Two key things to consider when Bronson and Dunbar meet in the runoff:

1.  There are candidates with more than 400 votes.  The winner will be the candidate who picks up the most of their votes.  

#3 Falsey has 8,527 votes and most of those should go to Dunbar

#4 Bill Evans has 6,281 votes.  He was thought to be a conservative when that word had a meaning.  I expect his votes to split, maybe leaning to Bronson a bit.

#5 George Martinez has 2,345 and those votes should go to Dunbar.

#6 Mike Robbins has 5,061 and those I'd guess will mostly go to Bronson.

Falsey and Martinez have 15% of the vote.  Evans has another 9%.  If Dunbar (who now has 31%) gets the 15% plus 4% from Evans, he'd have 50%.  Bronson (33% now) would get Robbins' 7+% and 5% from Evans for 45%.  Even if the last 5% split 4-1 for Bronson, Dunbar would win.  Of course, there are still the votes of the nine candidates who got 400 or fewer votes.  They add up to just over 1000 votes, or a little over 1%.  

2.  Runoffs generally have far fewer voters than in the general election, though that's not always the case.  So it will depend on which voters vote in the runoff.  Bronson's voters are those folks riled up about COVID restrictions on business and mask mandates plus traditional conservatives who will vote for emotion just to block progressive power.  



Mayor RaceTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturdayMon------
EVANS, Bill 

999    (4)         

3,871  (4)  4,782 (4)5,505 (4)5,686   (4)6,281(4)
SWANK,  Jr

36  (9)

139 (10)157 (10)173  (10)183  (10)206 (10)
MARTINEZ, 

321 (6)

1,272  (6)1,658 (6)1,928  (6)2,006  (6)2,345(6)
MOMIN, Reza

12  (11)

35  (13)39 (13)40  (13)44 (13)47(13)
FALSEY, Bill

1,281 (3)

5,312  (3)6,703  (3)7,614  (3)7,826  (3)8,527(3)

HERNDON, H

91   (7)

303    (7)337  (7)366  (7)374  (7)400(7)
ANTHONY, A

63  (8)

190   (8)233  (8)237  (8)242   (8)270 (9)
BRONSON, David

3,116  (2)

12,986  (2)15,953 (2)18,716  (1)19,334  (1)21,807(1)
BROWN, Jeffrey

33  (10)

147   (9)196  (9)229  (9)236  (9)274(8)
VERSTEEG, Jacob

11  (12)

31  (14)35  (14)36  (14)36 (14)37 (14)
ROBBINS, Mike

745   (5)

3,097   (5)3,766 (5)4,324  (5)4,457  (5)5061(5)
DUNBAR, Forrest

3,701 (1)

13,711 (1)16,458 (1)18,300 (2)18,812  (2)20,566(2)
COLBRY, Darin

8  (14)

18  (15)21 (15)25 (15)25  (15)29 (15)
WESTFALL, Joe

12 (11)

48  (11)61  (11)67  (11)68 (11)73(11)
KERN, Jacob Seth

 (13)

38   (12)41 (12)43  (12)45 (12)50 (12)







Total10,43841,19850,43057,60359,37465,973


The other races all stayed the same, though some have tightened even further.  28% of eligible voters have been counted.  We don't know how many are left.  I think voters in the US have ten days to get their ballots in (post marked by election day) and overseas voters have a little more time.  Those votes could change one or two of the School Board races.


ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 4 – SEAT G – RECALL (Vote for 1)

Precincts Reported: 0 of 23 (0.00%)

Total

Times Cast

10,222 / 42,059

24.30%

Candidate

Party

Total

YES

4,173

42.75%

NO

5,589

57.25%

Total Votes

9,762

Total

Unresolved Write-In

0

SCHOOL BOARD SEAT B (1-YEAR TERM) (Vote for 1)

Precincts Reported: 0 of 123 (0.00%)

Total

Times Cast

66,954 / 236,619

28.30%

Candidate

Party

Total

ELEDGE, Judy Norton

22,422

38.57%

STEWART, Marilyn

6,613

11.37%

COX, Mark Anthony

6,591

11.34%

LESSENS, Kelly

22,514

38.72%

Total Votes

58,140


Total

Unresolved Write-In

487


This one's down to 92 votes between Lessons and Eledge.


SCHOOL BOARD SEAT E (Vote for 1)

Precincts Reported: 0 of 123 (0.00%)

Total

Times Cast

66,954 / 236,619

28.30%

Candidate

Party

Total

HIGGINS, Pat

19,094

33.02%

HILDE, Alisha

7,388

12.78%

BLATCHFORD, Edgar

4,626

8.00%

BLAKESLEE, Rachel

5,680

9.82%

GRAHAM, Sami

18,720

32.37%

WILLIAMS, Nial Sherwood

2,323

4.02%

Total Votes

57,831

Total

Unresolved Write-In

518

There are 174 votes between the top two candidates.


SCHOOL BOARD SEAT F (Vote for 1)

Precincts Reported: 0 of 123 (0.00%)

Total

Times Cast

66,954 / 236,619

28.30%

Candidate

Party

Total

SANDERS, Marcus

9,097

15.99%

PAULSON, Kim

19,243

33.82%

LORING, Dan

2,984

5.24%

WILSON, Dora

25,581

44.95%

Total Votes

56,905

Total

Unresolved Write-In

566




SCHOOL BOARD SEAT G (Vote for 1)

Precincts Reported: 0 of 123 (0.00%)

Total

Times Cast

66,954 / 236,619

28.30%

Candidate

Party

Total

VAKALIS, Elisa

27,087

48.83%

JACOBS, Carl

28,386

51.17%

Total Votes

55,473

Total

Unresolved Write-In

989


Jacobs has a 299 vote lead.