Wednesday, June 07, 2017

Opera To The Rescue? Bannon Diavolo, Bigoto, Bigoto, Bigoto, Immigrantissimo Trumpo Banisimo

Last November 22 I had an uncharacteristically short blog post:

"Trump And The Arts
Prediction:  The period beginning roughly in 2017 will be known in the future for its burst of artistic creativity in music, literature, poetry, painting, graffiti, and all other forms of human creativity."
Below is the most creative and well executed example I've seen of the creativity that the Trump administration has inspired.





The power of humor and music!

Thanks to Sam Rose who posted this on his FB page.

Tuesday, June 06, 2017

Recipes for Glass Palace

My book club is reading Amatav Ghosh's The Glass Palace.


The meeting host generally tries to make refreshments with an eye to food that was in the book.  Sometimes that's easy, sometimes a bit more difficult.


The Glass Palace begins in the mid 1800s when the British demands for access to more teak forests are turned down by the King of Burma so the British fleet moves up the Irriwaddy and overwhelms the Burmese military and then send the King and Queen into exile on the west coast of India. A key theme of the book is how the British used  Indians to become their soldiers - who then do most of the Burmese invasion (killing and dying) work.

In any case, there was a fair amount of food mentioned, but as often happens, I wasn't thinking about the book club refreshments (it was at our place last time when we discussed The Three Body Problem).  But then on page 190, the key characters are gathered for a meal in Malaca (now Malaysia just south of the island of Penang) and the whole menu is listed.

I couldn't resist sending the list to our next host, and I wondered if I could even find the recipes for these dishes.  For some I was more successful than others.  But here it is:







When I sent the list, I noted these recipes were way beyond the call of duty for our book club meeting, but his reply suggested he might try one or two.

By the way, the book is an interesting romp through the history of that region from the view of an Indian.  You get a much different picture of that region of the world than you do from The Camp Of The Saints.    One of the characters - Uma - lives a number of years in London and then New York.  She gets involved with other ex-pat Indians who are concerned about the plight of their homeland.  Their view sees how India was exploited by the British empire and then set up for failure in the newly industrialized world.

"Witnessing the nascency of the new century in America, they were able to watch at first hand the tides and currents of the new epoch.  They went to visit mills and factories and the latest mechanized farms.  They saw that new patterns of work were being invented, calling for new patterns of movement, new ways of thought.  They saw that in the world ahead literacy would be crucial to survival;  they saw that education had become a matter of such urgency as to prompt every modern nation to make it compulsory.  From those of their peers who had traveled eastwards they learnt that Japan had moved quickly in this direction;  in Siam too education had become a dynastic crusade for the royal family.   
In India, on the other hand, it was the military that devoured the bulk of public monies:  although the army was small in number, it consumed more than sixty percent of the Government's revenues, more even than was the case in countries that were castigated as "militaristic."  Lala Har Dayal, one of Uma's most brilliant contemporaries, never tired of pointing out that india was, in effect, a vast garrison and that it was the impoverished Indian peasant who paid both for the upkeep of the conquering army and for Britain's eastern campaigns.   
What would become of India's population when the future they had glimpsed in America had become the world's present condition?  They could see that it was not they themselves nor even their children who would pay the true price of this Empire:  that the conditions being created in their homeland were such as to ensure that their descendants would enter the new epoch as cripples, lacking the most fundamental means of survival;  that they would truly become int the future what they had never been in the past, a burden upon the world.  They could see too that already time was running out, that it would soon become impossible to change the angle of their country's entry into the future;  that a time was at hand when even the fall of the Empire and the departure of their rulers would make little difference;  that their homeland's trajectory was being set on an unbridgeable path that would thrust it inexorably in the direction of future catastrophe."
There's also an interesting tidbit on how the Indians in the US were learning from the Irish in the US about how to resist the British.

"The Indians were, comparatively, novices in the arts of sedition.   It was the Irish who were their mentors and allies, schooling them in their methods of organization, teaching them the tricks of shopping for arms to send back home;  giving them instruction in the techniques of fomenting mutiny among those of their countrymen who served the empire as soldiers.  On St. Patrick's Day in New York a small Indian contingent would sometimes march in the Irish parade with their own banners, dressed in sherwanis and turbans, dhotis and kurtas, angarkhas  and angavastrams."

Studying the past certainly does put a fresh light on the present.  

Monday, June 05, 2017

Survivorship Bias - The Pitfalls Of Learning From The Lucky Winners


A Tweet about survivor bias led me to an old post on "You Are Not So Smart."  It's just good reading with lots of information.

It's a long, somewhat rambling, post.  But it's well told and brings lots of ideas together.  It's about how survivor bias leads us, often, to faulty conclusions.  The reason?  Because we only hear from the survivors and not those who failed, which often can be the vast majority. Starts with a long story about:
"The official name for the people inside the apartment was the Statistical Research Group, a cabal of geniuses assembled at the request of the White House and made up of people who would go on to compete for and win Nobel Prizes. The SRG was an extension of Columbia University, and they dealt mainly with statistical analysis. The Philadelphia Computing Section, another group made up entirely of women mathematicians, worked six days a week at the University of Pennsylvania on ballistics tables. Other groups with different specialties were tied to Harvard, Princeton, Brown and others, 11 in all, each a leaf at the end of a new branch of the government created to help defeat the Axis – the Department of War Math."
One of their more tangible problems was how to better protect WWII fighter planes in the Pacific.  The problem was the military saw the bullet holes only on the planes that survived and tried to protect the planes better in those places.  Mathematicians pointed out that those planes had made it back, so those hits were survivable.  They needed reinforcement in the places the surviving planes hadn't been hit.


It then goes on to give lots and lots of other examples of survivor bias.

  • in employer surveys (people who quit don't get surveyed)
  • old art and literature is better than modern stuff (bad stuff in the past disappeared and only the 'not bad' survived, while the current junk is still all around)
  • 'how to succeed books' from the successful (you miss the stories of the many ways to fail, and success seems much easier than it really is)
  • lottery stories

There's also an interesting section on luck and lucky people.
"Wiseman speculated that what we call luck is actually a pattern of behaviors that coincide with a style of understanding and interacting with the events and people you encounter throughout life. Unlucky people are narrowly focused, he observed. They crave security and tend to be more anxious, and instead of wading into the sea of random chance open to what may come, they remain fixated on controlling the situation, on seeking a specific goal. As a result, they miss out on the thousands of opportunities that may float by. Lucky people tend to constantly change routines and seek out new experiences. Wiseman saw that the people who considered themselves lucky, and who then did actually demonstrate luck was on their side over the course of a decade, tended to place themselves into situations where anything could happen more often and thus exposed themselves to more random chance than did unlucky people. The lucky try more things, and fail more often, but when they fail they shrug it off and try something else. Occasionally, things work out."
I'm not totally sure about this.  I'd guess there are lots of 'unlucky' folks who take crazy risks that get them into serious trouble.  But maybe Wiseman can explain how that still fits his model.

There's history in this post, plus some good science lessons.  Basically this seems like a specific kind of generalization based on a biased sample.

There was something familiar about the site and so I did check and found I had written about the book You are Not So Smart a few years ago.

Trump's Extreme Vetting Doesn't Include The White House

Here's a Tweet from the President today:



But not vetting people hired to work in the White House at all.

When will enough members of the US Senate Majority get enough backbone to stand up to this American disgrace to stop him from doing any more damage to the US at home and abroad?




Saturday, June 03, 2017

The Camp Of The Saints Is a Mean And Racist Diatribe But Given It's A Steve Bannon Favorite, Worth Knowing About

Some time ago I read that one of the books that influenced Steve Bannon, the White House chief strategist,  was The Camp of the Saints by Jean Raspail which came out in French in 1973.  It took me a while to track down a copy - which I got through interlibrary loan.  

It's a disgustingly racist novel about 1000 old ships that leave India for Europe with 'the Ganges horde' of nearly 1 million people, led by the giant 'turd-eater' who carries the monster child on his shoulders.  I did try hard to read this book to see if it would help me understand something about Bannon and others who supported Trump.  I wasn't able to finish it - it's really hard to read this stuff - before it was due back at the library.  But I think I got enough to get the gist.

I'd like to share some of the book with you for a number of reasons.

  • The author, twisted as he may be, is insightful in his analysis of how things operated back then in French society.  
  • The language and unrelenting disdain for other people (not only the darker people of the world, but also their white stooges who believe in helping the poor and making the world a better place) has to be read to truly get the level of racism and general misanthropy.  Just my saying it is racist  doesn't convey the point here. 
  • The insight it gives us to many Trump supporters' way of seeing the world and what his campaign targeted
  • The roadmap the book offers as a way to capture the 'gullible masses' which the author despises when  the techniques are used by the left, but sound very similar to what the right has been doing in the US for the last twenty or thirty years.  
  • The book that supposedly helps shape Bannon's view of the world clarifies a lot of why Trump is doing some of what he does
I thought I could do this in a series of quotes, but that isn't going to work.  The quotes need some context and some commentary.  I may do a second post, though midway through writing this up I did find the whole book on-line, so you can skim through it yourself.

The Basic Plot

The armada of poor leaves Calcutta for Europe.  The book is mainly about how the French will respond if they land on French shores (which they do.)  Raspail eviscerates various aspects of French society - from the media announcers, academics, government officials, teachers, the clergy, and the French public and their children - as stooges of the poor refuse of the earth.  The French, in Raspail's eyes are no longer men, but rather patsies due to their disgusting humanitarian beliefs in equality and their lack of will to defend their own hard won gains and to defend the white race.  You can read the plot in more detail at Wikipedia.  

It's Not Just The Plot That Matters

But the plot isn't what stands out to me.  It's the language, the hate, the disdain, the world view.  Raspail's world is zero sum - either we get the world's limited resources or they do - and that humans are just brutish members of tribes with no hope for a better society.  

The heroes of this book remind me of the heroes of Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged, in that caring about anyone but yourself is considered foolish and weak.   This book then adds gallons of racism to Rand's cold libertarianism.  

Why We Need To Read Books Like This

As despicable as I find this book, the world views expressed in it do represent views held by many people in the world;  enough to pass Brexit and elect Trump.   Had these views not been so summarily dismissed as unacceptable and undiscussable, they might have been better debated.  The fears of the invading hordes that this book evokes might have been addressed rather than dismissed.  There are legitimate concerns and liberals left those with concerns to get answers from the likes of Raspail.  

Also reading about the process of social brainwashing that Raspail describes might have better helped us understand and address the Fox News and talk radio propaganda tools that set the stage for Trump.  

The World When The Book Was Published

The book came out in France in 1973, about five years after French students shut down universities with demands for sexual and other liberties and workers demanded higher pay and shorter work weeks.  During WW II, France was unable to rule its colonies adequately and their independence movements strengthened. By 1954 France was out of Indochina  By 1960 France was out of most of their other colonies, most notably those in Africa, and most painfully, Algeria, leaving many in France angry at this loss of economic and political dominance.   There was a tug between the old traditionalists and those clamoring for a modern world.  France’s cultural superiority in the world was  also being challenged by American culture as English became the new lingua franca.  The French did not look kindly on this American usurpation.  

“Georges Clemenceau, who had led France through the first world war, once said that 'America was the only country that had gone from barbarism to decadence without passing though civilization’” (from Americans in Paris
I'm guessing that some of Raspail's vituperation against the media stems from what this Wikipedia entry describes.
“De Gaulle's government was criticized within France, particularly for its heavy-handed style. While the written press and elections were free, the state had a monopoly on television and radio broadcasts (though there were private stations broadcasting from abroad; see ORTF) and the executive occasionally told public broadcasters the bias that they desired on news. In many respects, society was traditionalist and repressive.”

But 'traditionalist' didn’t mean in France what it might mean in the US.  From the same Wikipedia post:
“In the context of a population boom unseen in France since the 18th century, the government under prime minister Georges Pompidou oversaw a rapid transformation and expansion of the French economy. With dirigisme — a combination of capitalism and state-directed economy — the government intervened heavily in the economy, using indicative five-year plans as its main tool.”  
 In short, there was plenty for the French to be upset about.  And Raspail seems to have taken his insight, twisted with a virulent racism, and created a fantasy apocalyptic novel.  And the boat people and other refugees coming to Europe lends some prescience to Raspail.  Though his tales are fantastical misrepresentations and omit key factors such as:  labor short Northern Europe, particularly Germany, had begun importing workers and many of the immigrants were from former European colonies.



OK, Let's Look At Some Of The Book

The chapters jump back and forth from views of the west and views of the armada of Indians.  It starts in the present with the arrival of the ships at Côte d' Azur.  We bounce around a bit and then we're at the Belgian consulate in Calcutta which had been cherry-picking Indian babies for adoption back home.  Until the masses of mothers bringing their babies in for adoption got too much and a huge mob is outside the consulate.  This is where we are first introduced to the leaders of the armada as it prepares to leave India.

The Turd-Eater and the Monster
"Way back, behind the backmost women in the crowd, a giant of a man stood stripped to the waist, holding something over his head and waving it like a flag. Untouchable pariah, this dealer in droppings, dung roller by trade, molder of manure briquettes, turd eater in time of famine, and holding high in his stinking hands a mass of human flesh. At the bottom, two stumps; then an enormous trunk, all hunched and twisted and bent out of shape; no neck, but a kind of extra stump, a third one in place of a head, and a bald little skull, with two holes for eyes and a hole for a mouth, but a mouth that was no mouth at all—no throat, no teeth—just a flap of skin over his gullet. The monster’s eyes were alive, and they stared straight ahead, high over the crowd, frozen forward in a relentless gaze—except, that is, when his pariah father would wave him bodily back and forth." (p. 9)
"Can a man spend his whole life grubbing for turds in all the slop pots along the Ganges, shaping them, rolling them between his fingers, day after day, and not know something about the true nature of man? He knew all there was to know. He just never knew that he knew, that’s all." (p. 10) 
These are the characters Raspail has created to lead the armada.  And Turd-Eater and Monster is what they are always called.  Reminds me a bit of Limbaugh's love for disdainful moniker's such as femi-Nazi as well as Trump's nicknames for his opponents.  Though Trump's 'crooked Hillary' and 'Lyin' Ted' were tame in comparison to Raspail.

The Western Media And Its Consumers
"To appreciate the West’s opinion of the refugee fleet—or, for that matter, of anything new and unfamiliar—one essential fact must be borne in mind: it really couldn’t give less of a damn. Incredible but true. The more it discovers about such things, the more fathomless its ignorance, feeble its interest, and vulgar its own self-concern. The more crass and tasteless, too, its sporadic outbursts, fewer and farther between. Oh yes, to be sure, it indulges in flights of sentiment now and again, but cinema style, like watching a film, or sitting in front of the TV screen, poised for the serial’s weekly installment. Always those spur-of-the-moment emotions or secondhand feelings, pandered by middlemen. Real-world drama, served in the comfort of home by that whore called Mass Media, only stirs up the void where Western opinion has long been submerged. Someone drools at a current event, and mistakes his drivel for meaningful thought. Still, let’s not be too quick to spit our scorn its way. Empty drivel indeed, but it shows nonetheless how reading the papers or watching the news can provoke at least the appearance of thinking. Like Pavlov’s dog, whose slobber revealed the mechanics of instinct. Opinion shakes up its sloth, nothing more. Does anyone really believe that the average Western man, coming home from his ofiice or factory job, and faced with the world’s great upheavals, can eke out much more than a moment’s pause in the monumental boredom of his daily routine?" (p. 20  - emphasis added)
There are many on both sides of the political divide who might characterize parts of the media this way - though probably in less scornful tones.  But this is clearly the message about the media that Trump fed his voters, though calling the media the 'enemy of the people' seems tame by comparison.   Liberals certainly believe the basic message when it's applied to Fox News and its audience.

Let's look at the media's consumers as Raspail sees them, beginning here with the intermediaries - the priests and the teachers.  First the clergy:
"Three thousand two hundred sixty-seven priests started frantically scribbling with an eye toward the following Sunday—ready-made sermon, delivered to the door, nothing to do with the gospel for the day, but who worries anymore about such minor details? (Among the cast of thousands we should note the presence of a certain married priest, Catholic and cuckold, wearing a pair of Christian horns, and aware of the fact—a situation so utterly new to the poor man, and muddling his mind into such disarray, that for over a month his Sunday sermons seemed to leave him at a loss. Durfort’s strong dose saved him from total silence. The therapy worked so well, in fact, that the antlered, oil- fingered gent forgot all about his sanctified horns and recovered that gift of thunderous fire and brimstone that made him the shepherd of the largest flock of masochists in the diocese. Perhaps we’ll see him again bye and bye ...)" (p. 27) 
And the teachers:
"At the very same moment thirty-two thousand seven hundred forty-two schoolteachers hit on the subject for the next day’s theme: “Describe the life of the poor, suffering souls on board the ships, and express your feelings toward their plight in detail, by imagining, for example, that one of the desperate families comes to your home and asks you to take them in.” Irresistible, really!"  (p. 27)
And the kids:
"And the dear little angel—all simple, childish soul and tender heart—will spread four pages’ worth of infantile pathos, enough to melt a concierge to tears, and his paper will be the best, the teacher will read it in class, and all his little friends will kick themselves for having been much too stingy with their whines and whimpers. That’s how we mold our men nowadays. Because even the tough, hardhearted little brat, the one with all he needs to succeed in this life, is forced to take part, since children abhor standing out from the crowd. So he’ll have to play along too, and work himself into a hypocritical sweat over the same philanthropic rubbish. And he’ll probably write just as brilliant a theme, clever child that he is, and he may even wind up believing what he writes, because youngsters like this are never really bad, just different, that’s all, just untapped potential. Then he’ll go home, like his classmate, both of them proud of their fine compositions."
And the parents, whom he identifies as Marcel and Josiane, which I take as a generic French worker husband and wife, sort of like Mr. and Mrs Joe Six Pack.  Remember, this all came out in 1973.
"And father, who knows what life is all about, will read the A-plus masterpiece, terrified (if he has the slightest imagination) at the notion of that foreign family of eight coming to live in his three rooms and kitchen, but he’ll sit back and keep his big mouth shut. Mustn’t frustrate the little angels, mustn’t shock them, mustn’t sully their innocent thoughts and risk turning them later into hopeless prigs. No, he’ll wallow, ensnared, in his gutless affection, and chuck his little angel on a cheek flushed with pleasure, telling himself that he’s really a dear, and besides, “out of the mouths of babes,” isn’t that what they say? ..."
Raspail describes Marcel further, a man who actually questions why the announcer is talking about helping the far away poor.  Marcel himself is living in a pretty basic apartment.  Shouldn't some of the help go to his family?
"Let’s give ear, in passing, to this discordant note. Good, canny common sense, a little uncouth and harsh—in other words, healthy— draws itself up to its dignified height and kicks up a fuss. Just a bit more effort and it could save the day. Marcel is no fugitive from the Ganges. He works, he wears shoes. He’s a hundred percent man, and make no mistake! With some prodding you could get him to admit that he’s part of a civilized country, that he’s proud of it too, and why not? Peekaboo, it’s our little white friend again, our foot-slogging soldier of the Western World, hero and victim of all its battles, whose sweat and flesh seep through all the joys of Western life. But he’s hardly the man he used to be. He only goes through the motions now. This volley won’t hit the mark. And there won’t be another. When the time comes, he’ll sit back and watch, as if none of it makes any difference to him. When he suddenly finds that it does, it will be too late. They’ll have made him believe it’s no skin off his nose, and that only the others—all the ones with money—will cough up and pay, in the name of equality, and brotherhood, and justice, or some such nonsense that no one dares question. And of course, in the name of the beast. But that’s something they won’t tell Marcel. Would he know what they meant?" (p. 27)
Sounds exactly like the voter that Trump targeted.  




Raspail's descriptions of people - politicians, newscasters - are so detailed  that I can't help but think he had real people in mind.  For example:
"Albert Durfort was full of the milk of human kindness. (Machefer would have used a rather more vulgar expression. He always said the professional do-gooders turned his stomach. A little too harsh, perhaps, for Durfort, not a bad sort, really.) Constant crusader, he would gallop through radioland to the rescue, looking for supposedly desperate causes, barely taking the time to change horses between two campaigns, always panting for breath as he came on the scene just in time to deliver the downtrodden victim, expose a scandal, and lash out at injustice. A Zorro of the airwaves. And the public adored it. So much so, in fact, that some—the most obtuse—saw each nightly editorial as a serial installment: Durfort on skid row, Durfort and the Arabs, Durfort vs. the racists, Durfort and the police, Durfort against brutality, Durfort for prison reform, Durfort and capital punishment, etc., etc. But no one, not even Durfort himself, could see that our Zorro was flogging dead horses, flying off to the rescue ‘of issues long since won. Something else, strange but true: he was looked on as the model of the free, objective thinker. He would have been shocked and surprised to learn that he was, in fact, a captive of fashion, bound by all the new taboos, conditioned by thirty years of intellectual terrorism; and that, if the owner and general manager of the station that employed him entrusted ten million good Frenchmen to his care each night, it certainly wasn’t to use his talents to tell them the opposite of what they supposed they believed in." (p. 26) (emphasis added) 
That's for a white French guy.  Note how the news model seems to fit Fox News and one could probably make a good argument that it fits well for some of the more centrist and liberal news outlets.  He also points out the contradiction between the professed concerns for the poor and the rich salaries the newsmen get.

 Now let's look at an immigrant news man:
"The speaker was one Ben Suad, alias Clément Dio, one of the monster’s most faithful minions, concoctor in chief of the poisonous slops poured piping hot each Monday into the feeble, comatose brains of the six hundred thousand readers of his weekly rag, served up in its fancy sauces. Citizen of France, North African by blood, with an elegant crop of kinky hair and swarthy skin—doubtless passed down from a certain black harem slavegirl, sold to a brothel for French officers in Rabat (as he learned from the bill of sale in his family papers)—married to a Eurasian woman officially declared Chinese and author of several best-selling novels, Dio possessed a belligerent intellect that thrived on springs of racial hatred barely below the surface, and far more intense than anyone imagined. Like a spider deep in the midst of French public opinion, he had webbed it over so thick with fine gossamer strands that it scarcely clung to life. A cordial type all the same, given to great informative bursts if he chose, though always one-way, sincere enough to put his convictions on the line and draw the occasional fire of intelligent colleagues—of whom there were fewer and fewer, alas!, and whom people had all long since stopped reading. In those topsy-turvy days the Left sprawled out in abundance, while the rightist press, in a hopeless muddle, languished alone in its trenches, deserted. The home front, meanwhile, true to form, fraternized high and low, unabashed and unrestrained. Politically, Dio’s columns were something of a hash, whipped up with a proper dose of utopian pap. But most dangerous of all was his very special talent—unrivaled, in fact—for planting his mines through the waters of current French life, far and wide, just surface-deep, always finding those areas still intact, and larding them through with the deadly devices, spewed mass-produced from his prolific brain."
One last quote from early in the book - the mayor of New York talks to a consultant for the city after they hear the news of the armada.
"As consulting sociologist to the city of New York, he had seen it coming, predicted it to the letter. The proof was there, in his lucid reports, ignored one and all. There was really no solution. Black would be black, and white would be white. There was no changing either, except by a total mix, a blend into tan. They were enemies on sight, and their hatred and scorn only grew as they came to know each other better. Now they both felt the same utter loathing. ... And so the consulting sociologist would give his opinion and pocket his money. The city had paid him a handsome price for his monumental study of social upheaval, with its forecast of ultimate doom. “No hope, Doctor Hailer?” “No hope, Mr. Mayor. Unless you kill them all, that is, because you’ll never change them. How about that?” “Good God, man, hardly! Let’s just wait and see what happens, and try to do the best we can ..."  (p. 7)
The 'scientific' proof that is supposedly buried in the report is, of course, fake news created by the novelist.   The 'realistic' sociologist is Raspail's good guy in this scene, and the mayor who won't hear of killing off the blacks in New York is the fool.  But there is lots one could write about overpriced consultants whose expertise often supports what a government wants to do, or is ignored.




This is supposedly and influential book for Steve Bannon, still running loose in the Oval Office and helping Trump figure out what to do on things like the Paris Climate Agreement.

Friday, June 02, 2017

The American Apology T-Shirt

Back in 2003, during the W. administration, my son went to work in Denmark for a year.  As a way to  let Europeans know about his feelings for the then US president, he created the American Apology T-Shirt on CafePress.

On one side it said, "I'm sorry my president is an idiot.  I didn't vote for him" in the official languages of the United States [Nations] [thanks Kathy].  On the other side it said, "American Traveler International Apology Shirt" also in the various languages.

He'd made this for himself and sales were low.  He wasn't trying to make money, just get himself a few T-shirt.  But one day and anti-Muslim website posted a story about the t-shirt calling it traitorous and soon it was one of the top subjects on the internet for a few days.  Sales shot up.  And he wound up with $10,000 half of which went to Doctors Without Borders.

Well, lately there's been an uptick in sales again.  (And also some copy cat versions have shown up.)
In any case, travelers who wants to let the rest of the world know where they stand,   can go to CafePress.    (There are a lot of different versions and colors.  And all the profit this time goes to Doctors Without Borders.)

Thursday, June 01, 2017

The Decline Of The US As A World Power

Trump  has pulled the US out of the Paris Climate Agreement.  Instead of this being a triumph for  the Climate Change Denial movement, I think it will be their last Hurrah.  The shift from carbon based energy has too much momentum.  The real impact will be the loss of power and prestige of the United States of America.

Back in December 2016 I wrote (in a post about change in general):
"My fear is that Trump will do a lot of damage both in the US and the world, before he leaves office. Things that will have to be undone before we can move on.  And while he won't kill people Hitler style, if he does slow down climate change action, the result will be turmoil and human suffering and death around the world.  Severe weather events will create havoc for farmers all over the world.  Rising temperatures mean that crops that grow at a certain latitude now, or with a certain level of rainfall, won't in twenty years or less.   This will disrupt food supplies and livelihoods everywhere."
But it appears that the US pulling out will not cause China and India and other significant players to pull out as well.

The rest of the world  (not to mention many US businesses)  understands that reducing carbon use is a long term common problem for all the peoples of the earth.  While some may lose bigger if we keep on the carbon path, no one will win.

But what will keep them united in the short term is their recognition that switching away from carbon based energy will be good for their economies as well.  They recognize that while the Koch brothers and their ilk who fund the climate change denial movement in the US exist, the world knows that most big businesses, including oil companies, and the US military, acknowledge that climate change is for real and they've already been planning to address it.  They're switching to other energy sources, preparing their facilities, and planning for the new energy economy.

The US pulling out slows things down for sure.  But it appears, not nearly as much as we thought a year ago.  The momentum toward a much more carbon free energy world is already too strong.

The real impact of the US pulling out of the Paris Agreement is that the US will be left behind.  And the rest of the world will realize that they can do things on their own without the US.

Other great world powers have gone this route.  Spain and Portugal are relatively modest nations today.  England is a shadow of what it once was.  All lost their power, in part, because they couldn't adjust their glorious self-images.

The US isn't finished as a nation.  It's just that other nations are discovering that we don't matter as much as we convinced them (and ourselves) that we do.  And we aren't all blind and backward either.  Our previous president was an enthusiastic supporter of the Paris Agreement.  More than half the voters cast their ballots for a candidate who would have kept us in the Paris Agreement.  But it is up to us to prove to the rest of the world that Trump is a short term aberration.

In many ways, we've grown too big for our own good. We believe our own propaganda about our greatness.  But, we've been in almost non-stop wars since WW II.   We've dominated the world power stage.  Letting the rest of the world get more equal casting won't be a bad thing.

Let's just hope I'm right that our withdrawal won't have nearly as much affect on humanity's fight against climate change as we once feared.




Wednesday, May 31, 2017

Most Beautiful Day Of The Year

Forget-me-nots
OK, some might argue that there were some great winter days, but today was by far the best summer day of the year.  The weekend was cloudy, rainy, some sun poking through the clouds.  Chilly - in the 40s, low 50s.

Yesterday was sunny and much warmer, getting near 60˚F.  But today it said 71˚F on our outdoor thermometer and sitting out on the deck felt decadent.  The leaves are all out.  Some flowers too.

Phlox




















Narcissus 

Got up and attacked my to do list.  A couple of unexpected things came up, but got them taken care of too.  One item on the list was to cut the May Day (Choke Cherry) tree flowers so they don't send seeds throughout the yard and neighborhood.  I had discovered - because of the flowers - that we had one way in the back of the yard, on the other side of the fence even.  I cut off all the branches, then cut off all the flowers.  But then I discovered another one near the deck.  These are highly invasive trees that also make moose sick.  I've posted about them before - May Day Tree Invasion - Obvious While Blooming.  

Choke Cherry Flowers 






There were a lot of planes flying over.  The Anchorage Airport FB page explains why:
"Runway 15/33 Closure: The North/South runway will be closed for preventative maintenance with an estimated timeframe from May 8 - 28th, from approximately 8:00am to 7:00pm, Monday through Saturday. This will likely result in more aircraft departures to the East over mid-town Anchorage and more noise impact to the community during those times."



But it was still nice working and reading lazily out on the deck.  



Tuesday, May 30, 2017

Some Things I Want To Write About

Our political situation is getting grim.

Democracy works slowly.  I feel like I'm watching a car careening toward a cliff in very slow motion.  We know something has to be done.  Democratic wheels grind slowly though.  And with the added alignment of the House, Senate, and White House, they grind even more slowly.
We're watching disaster happen before our eyes yet it feels like there is nothing we can do about it.  In the short term, for most of us, that's probably true.  This car is going to go over the cliff.  There's going to be a lot of damage.

What we can do is:

  • let the people with power (members of Congress, member of government agencies, people who have influence on members of Congress) know how we feel
  • be models of good human action - take care of ourselves, do work that makes the world better, treat others with respect and decency
  • prepare for the 2018 election.  


But much of our crisis is due to radically different views about how the world works, how people behave, how we 'know' what is good and bad.  It's stuff inside people's brains.

A longer term project is to examine what goes on in the human brain and pursue understandings such as:

  • Our understanding of human economics
    • the Protestant Ethic and the nature of work
    • why work is the basis upon which Americans believe wealth should be distributed?
    • as science leads to more automation that replaces more human workers, what happens to the people displaced by machines?
    • are there other moral and equitable ways to distribute wealth among human beings?
  • Our understanding of human behavior
    • why do people do what they do?
      • the role of genes
      • the role of the environment 
      • the role of belief systems, different ideas of morality
      • the roles of fear, of hope
    • what affects how people behave collectively - in families, communities, in political bodies?
  • Our understanding of government and its relationship with individuals and private organizations
    • government as a concept
    • government as actual human systems
      • conditions where they work well
      • conditions where they don't work well
    • roles of governments and roles of private sector organizations
  • Our understanding of how we know things, how to think, how to solve problems
    • the roles of family, community, religion, schools, media, culture
    • the roles of individual brains
    • the role of emotions
    • how people change their understanding of things

There are a number of collective projects that the people of the United States need to undertake.  (I'll limit myself at this point, but really, this is project the peoples of the world need to engage in.)

  • We need to carry on with the fundamental tasks that allow us all to eat, have shelter, education, health care.  (And as I write this, I'm fully aware that all those needs are not being fulfilled for 'us all.')
  • We need to work on alleviating the fear we have of each other - whether 'the other' is defined in terms of skin tone, gender, religious beliefs, occupation, birthplace, sexual orientation, or any defined outsider from the mental category in which we each see ourselves.  
  • We need to understand ourselves and where our values come from and where our beliefs about how the world works come from.  (Is our knowledge based on what authorities in our lives tell us is so?  Is it based on our own experience?  Is it based on our feelings about things?  Is it based on any sort of rigorous testing of the world itself?)
  • Then we need to compare how we know the world with how others know the world and figure out how to resolve differences.
As you can see, there's a lot to think about, talk about, and do.  A blog may not be the best medium to explore these things.  Or maybe I can figure out how to make it work on a blog.  In a sense I do touch on these things frequently.  But can I do it in a more organized way?  Or are blog posts by necessity too short to take on such complicated and interrelated questions?  

That's where my head is today as our house guest of the last few days headed for the airport and the sun has been out for one of the nicest days of the year so far.  

Being human.  That's a big challenge.  How do we do it while achieving a reasonable level of contentment and doing as little harm to others as possible?  


Rereading this, it sounds so heavy and dry.  But these are some of the fundamental issues that humans must engage to overcome our differences and to find alternative ways to live decently on this planet.  I'll use this as a first draft and guideline.  Maybe I can find ways to engage these topics that are lighter without sacrificing depth.  

Monday, May 29, 2017

Memorial Day Thoughts

My wife's uncle is buried in Arlington after a long distinguished military career.


My father and step-father were both WW II veterans.  And there are many men and women who have served valiantly to protect liberty for us and for others.

But we also have to get past our automatic assumption that people who fight in wars are a) heroes and b) fought to keep us free.  Many US interventions in the world have been to protect US business interests, not the least of which, in this case, is the arms industry.  Writing about Memorial Day and those who served in the military honestly and objectively is difficult in the US and in most countries.

As with most public issues in the US today - whether championed by the right or the left - there is plenty of room for reason and logic and dispassion.  With any group that is honored by a society, the military gives refuge to malcontents as well as true patriots.  It's true as well of religion, science, fire and police departments, teachers, doctors, and every other group with more than average status.

Let's remember, clear headedly, those who truly put their lives on the line for justice and freedom and dignity.  That includes those who died and those who survived.  That includes the three who stood up to bigotry on a Portland light-rail train, two of whom died.  Because the media tends to focus on violence, let's also remember that lots of other people have stood up to bigotry and not been killed or hurt.  Standing up for justice has a risk, but most of the time, you don't get killed.  Those who would stand up like that, should know of the countless times people intervene and no violence ensues.  

I've done a number of Memorial Day posts in the past that may be of interest to some.

Memorial Day 2010

What's the Difference Between Memorial Day and Veteran's Day?

Memorial Day Sees Hmong Vets Shut Out of US Veterans Cemeteries That Include POWs

Arlington National Cemetery to Visit Uncle Kermit  (not a Memorial Day post per se, but lots of photos of Arlington)