Here's Why I'm Calling This For Biden

 Despite all the handwringing, and recognizing that people don’t want to repeat their dashed expectations of 2016, I think all the signs point to Biden winning comfortably.  I know the media explore all the possible hidden traps - and some are there - but the media make money from tension and uncertainty.  

Basically, 2020 is VERY different from 2016. 

1. Trump was a con-artist who billed himself as an exceptionally talented business man in 2016 and people who were tired of ‘gridlock’ thought they should give him a try.  Drain the swamp and all that.  But the American people know a lot more about Trump now.  They only people still with him are those who 
1. Are like, or think they are like, Trump
1. The greedy - tax cuts and good stock market have increased their wealth
2. The needy - those who need a father figure to tell them what to think and do, to nurse their prejudices and encourage their hate, to protect them from their worst fears (includes members of evangelical and fundamentalist churches who support Trump and gun fetishists)
3. The racists and the misogynists and the abusive
4. Those who don’t believe in democracy
2. Are strongly anti-communist or anti-socialist - including those who came to the US from communist and/or socialist countries, and people who have no idea what those words mean, but are strongly against them.
3. Die-hard Republicans for whom voting for a Democrat would be an act of betrayal
2. Now we know about misinformation campaigns, infiltration of social media, Russian interference and other machinations to turn voters for Trump and against Hillary Clinton
3. The anti-Trump side has gained new recruits
1. People who didn’t realize how bad Trump would be  and didn’t vote or voted for 3rd party candidates are now ready to go vote like it matters
2. The constant barrage of videos of blacks being killed by cops, being Karened, plus Trump’s own support of white supremacy and other racist acts and the resulting Black Lives Matter protests have mobilized many non-voters of color and made many white folks more understanding of the level of racism in the US and the danger of another four years of Trump.
3. The many books unmasking the Trump myth, from scholars, from Trump family members and long time employees, from Trump appointees changed what people know about Trump.  And while most people don’t read books, key passages have been repeated over and over again in the media and social media.  All these have peeled off people who voted for Trump and converted them to non-voters or Biden voters
4. The Parkland Students movement has mobilized youth to register to vote.  They helped speed up the unraveling of the NRA and shown high school students they have power.
5. Floridians gave felons the right to vote and while Republicans are blocking their participation as best as they can, still tens of thousands can now vote.  
6. Climate change activists and Native Activists and others are all bringing new voters out.
7. There's a collection of 'traditional' Republicans who are working hard to defeat Trump, using the same PR techniques they've used in the past to defeat Democrats (and I'm worried about who their targets might be in the future)
4. COVID-19 has exposed all Trump’s flaws and incompetence as a president and reports say that this is mobilizing some of the older white vote away from Trump, as well as all those affected directly by the virus - essential workers, those who have gotten sick, and the families of those of have been sick or who have died
5. Biden is a very different candidate from Clinton
1. He’s not a woman.  As bad as it reflects on Americans, women candidates are judged differently from men and it costs them votes.  
2. He’s not Hillary.  She’s a very competent wonk, but didn’t come across as likable to many.  She also carried the baggage of the Clintons’ post presidency wealth acquisition.  (But also remember she got 3 million more votes than Trump did.)
3. Clinton had to fight constant attacks about Benghazi and emails.  The Hunter Biden attacks haven’t stuck.  Partly because we understand a lot more about Trump’s fake news industry.  
4. Biden is the opposite of Trump.  He’s decent, he’s compassionate, he’s got loving family and friends.  He makes as good of a uniter candidate as we could want in contrast to Trump’s divisiveness.
6. The Democrats have paid much more attention to the electoral college this time round
7. The Democrats have a huge team of lawyers ready to fight Trump challenges to the election.  There will be no Gore concession unless they are sure he lost the election fairly.
8. There’s been record numbers of early voters and mail-in voters - and as I’ve tried to outline above, the pool of anti-Trump new voters is much bigger than pro-Trump voters.
9. Democrats have raised unheard of money from online campaigns with relatively small average contributions which demonstrates a level of fear and activism we haven’t seen for a long time.  
10. The polls are in Biden’s favor, even in the swing states.  Some traditionally Republican strongholds are polling close.  

That doesn’t mean that Biden can’t lose (so, yes, if you haven’t voted yet, you still need to go vote.)   It doesn’t mean that Russians or Republicans haven’t schemed to hack voting machines so they turn every sixth Biden vote into a Trump vote.  That’s relatively easy to program and hard to detect if it’s done in just a few precincts.  But there are ways to spot such efforts.  

And it doesn’t mean that Biden will be a great president.  He’s got a pandemic to deal with.  He’s got the destruction of many government agencies to repair.  He’s got a volatile Trump out there who’s addicted to attention and adulation and would like nothing better to make Biden fail.  And if Democrats don’t flip the Senate, he’s got to fight for every inch.  

But it looks to me that all the little signs have lined up in Biden’s favor.  For him to lose a lot of things have to go haywire, and if that happens it will suggest that there were dirty tricks we hadn’t anticipated.  Everything that Trump says about his campaign - that if he doesn’t win it’s because the election was stolen - is actually the truth about the Biden campaign.