Sunday, July 07, 2013

Board's Reasoning Ability Truncated

The Board's getting tired.  As they tried to figure out the truncation and then which half of the terms have two year and which half have four year terms, their brains turned to mush as they got so hopelessly confused that Randy Ruedrich actually jumped into the discussion from the audience to suggest - what I was thinking here - that one out would be to change the numbers and letters of the districts so they didn't require almost everyone to end up with another set of two year terms. 

I tried to explain truncation two years ago at this post - what it means and why they do it.

Real brief:  if a new seat is substantially different from the old one, it means that the majority of voters in the new district did NOT elect that Senator.  Therefore, to have someone represented by the voters of the district, that seat must run again in 2014, regardless how long that term was before.

Part two has to do with staggered terms.  Half the senate runs in one election and the other half in the other.  That way they never have everyone running at once and half the senate at least has some experience.  Now they are adding geographic staggering (so not all of Anchorage or Fairbanks Senators would run in the same year) which makes sense.  But someone said contiguous districts, which probably would be impossible because several districts may be contiguous. 

This is what they are trying to figure out how to do.  And since this is the second redistricting plan in two years, it looks like a large number of senators may be forced to run every two years for two or more elections in a row, contrary to the four year terms  the Constitution assigns for Senators. 

Without their chart and their maps it's impossible for me to have any idea of what the implications are for specific districts and Senators, except Gary Stevens who Brodie names.  Since I'm on line, I don't have the new map or the list of truncations. 

They've recessed for twenty minutes.  They're due back already, but this will take them more than 20 minutes to figure out.  It sounded a lot like the Abbot and Costello "Who's On First" routine.

Here are my rough notes, while they are on a 15 minute recess, to figure out what they are doing. 

Calling meeting back to order.  It’s 2:38.  During the break to let the individual members to look at ????.  Also handed out the truncation report on the districts that changed and percentage they changed.  Struggled understanding.

Eric:  Board concept senate turns
Senate seats in new plan, second column,  third column largest % of Senate seat

A - 97% of old Senate B

Assignment of term lengths is from the old districts, so you can see from the current ones.

PeggyAnn McConnochie:  I read from two middle columns?  Thank you.

White:  Looks like 8 senate district that are clearly truncated, down 50%.  Q, old P is 97% the same, but that’s the one that didn’t get truncated that time, so should be ready to run this time or would be

77% one, that’s in that gray area, do you require it or not.  That person ran for 4 years seat last time.  How you map out two and four year seats is different from truncating.  You’d have ten and ten and make two and four based on that.  those who have to run now would be four.

Torgerson:  Sounds simple, but it isn’t back to Eric’s list.
staggered 4-2-4-2
PeggyAnn McConnochie:  A is 4 B is 2
Proclamation go ABCD, the 2-4 out of whack, but next column.
Torgerson:  Q has to be four year?
White:  He hasn’t run since 2010 so has to run. 
BEFGNOPand F  I suggest to you, they need to run in 2014.  If 2 year term anyway.  P is up now anyway.  If assign two year or four year.

C is a four year so shouldn’t run until 2016, but truncated so has to run in 2014.
A was a four year

B fro m concept plan - 70% is within the Board’s discretion.  The rest are under 50% so they have to be truncated.

F - 4 year but only 50%
R doesn’t need
Q needs to run this tie anyway
P needs to be truncated because 4 year but 50%

G only 50%

Brodie:  In our haste, in the third column concept N and O, we have a duplicate N -
Eric:  Both have majority from old one, District R went to new Sen P, cross tabs, New concept N and O get from old N
Torgerson:  for those on tele

White; Sure truncate

C - 4 year, 46%
G - 4 year about 50% the same
P - 4 year only 51% the same
S/F?  - 4 year only 54% the same

The only one’s I see that have to be truncated.
Torgerson:  Assuming the one with 70%

We know A is two year time this time
D is two year and needs to run again
F needs to run only two year, 40%
N needs to run
Brodie:  J and K two year terms, M, N,
White:  Now we’re over 50%
Brodie:  Go left to right
 N and O scheduled and have 50%
Q is scheduled
White:  12 districts that would be up for running with truncation,
Brodie:  I got 14
White:  You’re talking about two year terms. 
PeggyAnn McConnochie: 
White:  We assigned them two year terms last time, don’t have to change.  Up to us.  At the end, there have to be ten four year terms and ten two year terms. 
You have five, regardless to 2012 that need to be truncated and need to be run in 2014 and ?? that have to run in 2014 because term up,

Two to go, that’s five
and ten scheduled with 0 time left to go.

15 up for election.  Ten on normal schedule up and five truncated.
Of those, two year and four year.
Torgerson:  If ran on two years, we can’t give them another two years. 
White:  Assignment different from truncation. Five need to be truncated.  Have to run this time again.  Were on four year terms.  Either pick 5 more to go four or pick the five truncated and give them four year terms. 
Torgerson:  Need to end up with ten and ten. 
White:  J and K are 100% the same.  But on two year terms.  Have to run again, but could assign a four year term.
Torgerson:  Are you saying if term expired we can give them another four years without an election?
White:  Not what I’m saying
Torgerson:  Ones with two have to run.  The ones with four but are truncated.  Matter of where we want to start.  four or two,
PeggyAnn McConnochie:  We could go with ones on 2 year, and make them four.  Then go down the percentages. 
Brodie:  Put 15 numbers in a hat
PeggyAnn McConnochie:  have to do truncated first.
Brodie:  Those five get four years.
PeggyAnn McConnochie:  Ones we have have to run.  all the truncated people had four year terms.
Torgerson:  Sen B two years,
Make A  a four year - if you go two-four-two-four  - I don’t know how that would work. 
Brodie:  We could pull out of a-hat.
Torgerson:  That won’t work.  Always did A, B, that would be ?? that would have 2 year terms. 
Brodie:  Fairbanks should probably be alternate, not all at the same time. 
PeggyAnn McConnochie:  If running other times would always have people who knew something.
Torgerson:  I always saw these as 2-4-2-4  If the A was four, the B was two. 
PeggyAnn McConnochie:  I agree it needs to be that way. 
Torgerson:  Otherwise the Board could say everyone in Anchorage was up at the same time,  Mr. White is that right?
White:  One more time
Torgerson:  No, I’m not saying it again.  I’m almost certain you have to stagger A-B-C-D
Brodie:  Then it gets tricky, potentially we could end up truncating everybody.  If someone has two years to go, and ends up on the wrong side of the flip.
Torgerson:  That’s the way it falls.  We could go down the list and see what happens. 
PeggyAnn McConnochie:  We could start with drawing a hat - 2 or 4 and then go from there.  They need to be staggered through the districts.
Brodie:  Some are tied geographically.
White:  We know these four need to be truncated.  Then, there are four four year terms that have to run this time.  Then five other two year terms, four of them are truncated, so they are up.  Q needs to be up this time.(on 2 year term)
PeggyAnn McConnochie: Bottom line:  need geographical don’t have two contiguous seats not running he same term.  Flip a coin and then flows up or down.  Then ten on two year and ten on four year.
Brodie: I think I have it based on what Mike said.
Starting at bottom - S and T up.  R has two years left to go - put 2 opposite him.  Q is up.  P, our rotation has two year term and truncated. N is truncated and up for election, so two.  L has two years to go, not truncated.  Put two for him.  J and K - off here,  I and H.  Start at R, L and I stay in four year rotation and every other.  Only person cut short is H.  Others stay on even/odd. 
H stays and I gets changed.  Is that right? 
Torgerson:  If 4-2-4-2  the whites on the sheet will all be the same.  Does that work out? 
A was two years and now four.  Let me think this through, boy. 
C would truncate, but be on four year
E four
R two year
T truncate but on four year.
I said T but G, would be four
PeggyAnn McConnochie:  reading them too fast for me
Brodie:  Just the opposite.  whites have two years to go, but not all.  If we make all the white two year and all the beige four year.  I guess I was off.
PeggyAnn McConnochie: Read beige is four, white is two
B =2
C=4 all the way down and T is

White:  Assignment of election for this plan.  If map didn’t have to be redrawn there would be ten and ten.  But because changed, there are four people who need to be truncated.  GPBand F need to run.
That means the other two year up - ten of those.  Some we already know can stay because being truncated.  And five more of them.
PeggyAnn McConnochie:  more people running this time than will ever have to run than ever again. 
listing of people whose terms are over with.  One time until we’re back on schedule.
Torgerson:  We’re saying the same thing.
Brodie:  Anomaly with translation.  Current Senate district R.  It’s not there
Eric:  Majority of current senate districts
Torgerson:  In conceptual plan all are there, not in Proclamation plan
Brodie:  What was R last year, now becomes P according to this he had two years to go, but he had a two year term.
White:  But he wasn’t truncated.
Eric:  This sheet wasn’t designed for what you’re doing.  Maybe easier to look at old one cross. 

Old A - 4 year and now  this one causing you trouble
PeggyAnn McConnochie: Need to be sure Senate from old one was R, what happens to him today.
Eric:  Elected to two year term in 2012.  Up to run now.  Most of his district went to the new P.  Reason it didn’t show up, because P got more from old O than R.  R was western Alaska, underpopulated district. 
New N has breaks pretty evenly between Proc. N and M, Concept district O broke evenly between proc N and O, but majority from Proc N.  That’s why N is listed twice.  Concept P is mostly from O
PeggyAnn McConnochie:  But a lot from R and few from N. 
Brodie:  I think
PeggyAnn McConnochie:  Sen R will no longer exist.  That person has to run in the new senate seat
Brodie:  And already due to run.
PeggyAnn McConnochie:  Has a new letter, I don’t know who it is.
Brodie:  Lost in translation - we can go from old letters to new for determining the term.  If old R is now Assigned concept P, it shows he has two years to go, when he doesn’t.  Gary Stevens elected two years ago for a two year term.  His new district will be P.  It shows the new P with the old showing he was
Torgerson:  The old P was elected for two years.
Brodie:  But he was a different guy.  If all the Proc districts, two N’s instead of an R.  That lets us build our plan.  Then we assign the new letters to them.
Suggest:  Take a recess  [Ruedrich?]  In the process of relettering creates uncertain.  100% to two years and the sen who ran for two years is extended for four years.  Maybe a numbering problem.  If change the 1,2,3,4 locations, then A would be back and it would become straightforward.
Torgerson:  We’re not extending anyone on a two year seat.  They have to run again.
Brodie:  I agree with what you said.  But because of our lettering it seems to indicate two years when they don’t. 
PeggyAnn McConnochie: I don’t see that.
Brodie:  Proc -there is no R because Eric assigned from where they were in last election.  If go to concept P, it indicates he has two years left.  I think we need to drop the concept letters and use the current ones and then we will be more able to tell.
PeggyAnn McConnochie: Don’t we still have the problem about what happened to N and P?
Brodie:  Sure, but he’s artificially being given two extra years.
Torgerson:  He still has to run
White:  no under 50% the same, so truncated.  How much of R is the same as the district he is in now?  Not sure, truncated based on incumbent or on the district?
Torgerson:  Pretty close because he had Lincoln Pen last time and not Kenai.  We’re not extending anybody.
PeggyAnn McConnochie: Whoever occupies P has to run again.
3:25, take a 15 minute recess.  Come back at 20 to 4. 

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