The Importance of Voter Turnout -The Huge New York House District 14 Upset

New Yorkers voted in US House primaries today.  There was a huge, upset in District 14.  Does it tell us anything about other races, including the Alaska House race?  (Spoiler:  probably not.)

From the New York Times tonight:

Candidate	Votes	Percent
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	15,897	57.5%
Joseph Crowley Incumbent	11,761	42.5
27,658 votes, 98% reporting (440 of 449 precincts)

Joseph Crowley has been in Congress since 1998 and was fourth in line among Democrats in the House.  Ocasio-Ortiz is a 28 year old who has not held office before, but she was a key player in the Sanders campaign in her area.

This is an upset that the reporters are saying no one expected.  Crowley had a good shot of replacing Nancy Pelosi as speaker of the House.

Note:  Congressional districts in the US after the 2010 Census should have a population of about 710,767.

This district is made up of part of the Bronx and part of Queens -  a heavily Democratic district.   Democratic presidential candidates regularly get over 70% of the vote.  The Bronx has 553,000 active registered Democrats and 29,000 active registered Republicans.  Queens has 735,000 registered Democrats.  So it's taking parts of both counties, there could be 600,000 active registered Democrats in this district.  Though that number seems high given that the district would have a lot of people under 18.  And, I may have the numbers for the district wrong - the state offers party registration by county.  I couldn't find numbers by House district.

But ball parking this, with those numbers I had, the turnout was less than one percent, even if you doubled the turnout! [UPDATE June 27, 8:30am:  I shouldn't do math in my head in the evening - it's really closer to 5%] Rachel Maddow's guest (in video) points out that there are two Democratic primaries in New York - one for the governor's race and this one for Congress.   So that would also work to keep turnout low.

Here is the demographic breakdown of the district as reported on Wikipedia:

• 18.41% White
• 11.39% Black
• 16.24% Asian
• 49.80% Hispanic
• 0.45% Native American
• 3.71% other

A well organized candidate with a good grass roots team to get voters to the poll could pull off an upset like this in a large urban district with very low turnout.  They really only needed 1000 votes or less even to win.  She won by 4000 votes.


So does this tell us anything about other primaries and fall elections?

I doubt it.  With very low turnout, anything can happen.  And this is a district whose boundaries have changed a lot since Crowley was first elected.  Whites are now under 18% and nearly half the population is Hispanic.

Should Alyse Galvin (I) or Dimitri Shein (D) take hope about knocking off Don Young in the fall?  The upset does show that the unexpected can happen and that turnout and getting your voters to the polls is important.

But in a district you could easily walk across in a day, it is a lot easier to get your voters to the polls than in a district you could walk across in maybe 6 months if you're super fit and could trek across roadless land and mountains.  Or you could dog sled across in two weeks if you trained for the Iditarod.

One of these two candidates will meet Don Young in the general election, not the primary.  And Alaska's  been a pretty red state for a long time.  But upsetting a powerful incumbent is a precedent all challengers take inspiration from.

Sun In The Garden

Too nice out to be on the computer.

Plane Spotting From Home

Below is a collage of planes I shot while sitting on the deck yesterday and Thursday.   The Anchorage Daily News has a story online (they don't have a Saturday paper any more so I'm sure it will be in Sunday's) that says this current three week traffic pattern and noise level will be all summer next year.   Now it says we're getting 150 to 170 jets taking off over Anchorage a day.

That comes to about 6 - 7 every hour, 24/7.  Or about one every nine minutes!   My sense of the last two nights is that the traffic is less at night, so that could make it every 4 or 5 minutes during the day.   I mentioned this on Nextdoor the other day. [Not sure if you can get to the post if you're not logged in or in the community.]  Based on the comments, this affects people in a considerably larger area than I mapped in yesterday's post.  A few folks say they don't mind.  Others say they can't sleep with the noise all night.  One said his house must have better sound proofing than others.  I suspect the folks who felt the noise level was ok, for the most part were a) inside or away most of the day, b) further from the flight path,  c) already a bit deaf.  But it's not just the loud noise that's a health hazard.  The vibrations are a stress increaser.  This is summer in Alaska.  It's short.  I try to spend the whole summer in Alaska and the backyard deck is my sanctuary.  Well, was.  It's very loud out there now.

Fortunately cannabis is legal in Anchorage.  That might take the edge off all this noise for some.  Anyway, here are a few pictures from the deck over the last two days.  There's a relatively small opening between the trees and the roofline.  The planes give plenty of warning that they're coming, though they don't all come directly overhead for a good shot.

Airport Noise Impacts - DNL = "Driving me Nuts Lately"

I wrote Wednesday that the Anchorage International Airport has a temporary new flight plan sending noisy jets over our house throughout the day and night.  In the past we've had three or four week periods like this as they repaired the north-south runway.  But there was always a quiet period during the night.

This year's repairs are scheduled for all summer and next summer and there's no night quiet period either.  (The posting said the heaviest planes would have to use the east-west runway 24/7)

So I looked at their map.

The dotted red lines shows the area labeled:   During Construction 65 DNL Noise Contour  
I added the blue dashes to show how far significant  (at least) noise goes beyond those red dots. I'd also note there are two major hospitals just east of where I ended the blue dots that definitely are affected.

They don't explain DNL, but I have google working for me.  Below is a definition of DNL from MACNoise:

"What is DNL in Terms of Aircraft Noise?
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) established DNL as the primary metric for aircraft noise analysis and expressing aircraft noise exposure in the United States. "DNL" is the acronym for Day-Night Average Sound Level, which represents the total accumulation of all sound energy, but spread out uniformly over a 24-hour period.
DNL has been widely accepted as the best available method to describe aircraft noise exposure and is the noise descriptor required by the FAA for use in aircraft noise exposure analyses and noise compatibility planning. It also has been identified by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as the principal metric for airport noise analyses.
The calculation for DNL considers the time of day an aircraft operated and applies a 10-decibel penalty on aircraft arriving or departing between 10 p.m. and 7 a.m.; the output is a numeric value in decibels that represents a 24-hour average noise exposure value. The current federally-established threshold of significance is 65 dB DNL.
While DNL also may be used for non-aviation purposes, the FAA's use of DNL is specific to aircraft noise. The Metropolitan Airports Commission publishes Aircraft Day-Night Level values as "ADNL" to avoid confusion with other uses of "DNL." 

The threshold is 65 dB (decibels) DNL.  That doesn't mean the sound level stays below 65 dB.  It means the average over a 24 hour period is 65 dB.

So if on average you have ten minutes per hour of jets flying over your house, it would appear that decibel level is averaged with the 50 minutes of quiet.   So, from what that definition says, you could have ten minutes of 120 dB per hour and probably still get a 65 dB DNL.  (I'm not sure, I don't know exactly how they calculate. How does the fact that the decibel scale goes up logarithmically affect an 'average'?)

Decibels

How loud is 65 dB DNL?   Here's a google docs chart that shows you lots of examples.  It puts washing machine, dishwasher, and refrigerator at 65 dB and electric shaver at 65.  If linking to the google chart is too much of an effort, I've added a chart from SCRIBD that has some extra pages of info.  You can scroll through it and enlarge it.  (Note:  the examples in the Google and SCRIBD charts don't always match exactly, and the SCRIBD charts has different examples on different pages)

Decibel Level Comparison Chart by Dang-dang Siggaoat-Copiaco on Scribd

As you look at the chart, the numbers aren't going to seem right.   For instance, here are a few examples:

breathing   = 10 decibals
light traffic = 50 decibels
inside subway car = 90 decibels

Is light traffic really only 5 times louder than breathing?  A subway car only 9 times louder?  The answer is no.  And here's why from Science How Stuff Works:

"On the decibel scale, the smallest audible sound (near total silence) is 0 dB. A sound 10 times more powerful is 10 dB. A sound 100 times more powerful than near total silence is 20 dB. A sound 1,000 times more powerful than near total silence is 30 dB. Here are some common sounds and their decibel ratings:"

Here's where the logarithmic scale is important.  Each step of 10 decibels is 10 TIMES louder than the previous step.  So, if light traffic is 40 decibels more than breathing, then that's  10  x 10 x 10 x 10 = 10,000 times louder!

The SCRIBD chart tells us that hearing loss can start at 90 decibels - a subway.  Permanent damage occurs at 140 decibels - a jet engine at 100 feet or a gun shot.


Noise and Health

There's lots of research showing the damaging effects of noise on health - though be careful with what you find online.  I found one article which made pretty broad claims, but the sources cited were extremely limited studies on fairly small populations.  While the claims were probably accurate, the sources listed couldn't be generalized to such broad claims.  So I didn't use it here.

But here's an article* about noise impacts at an airport in Turkey using European standards.  It has this chart which neatly outlines some of the key problems with airport noise.  The metrics are European standards

Effect	Observation threshold
	Metric	Value dB(A)
Hypertension	Lden	70
Ischemic heart disease	Lden	70
Performance	Ln	70
Sleep pattern	Ln	60
Subjective sleep quality	Ln	40
Mood next day	Ln	60

Below are the first seven of ten Key Findings from the European Environment Agency report Noise In Europe 2014.

The key messages from this report are:
1. noise pollution is a major environmental health problem in Europe;
2. road traffic is the most dominant source of environmental noise with an estimated 125 million people affected by noise levels greater than 55 decibels (dB) Lden (day-evening-night level);
3. environmental noise causes at least 10 000 cases of premature death in Europe each year;
4. almost 20 million adults are annoyed and a further 8 million suffer sleep disturbance due to environmental noise;5. over 900 000 cases of hypertension are caused by environmental noise each year;
6. noise pollution causes 43 000 hospital admissions in Europe per year;
7. effects of noise upon the wider soundscape, including wildlife and quiet areas, need further assessment;

I'm not sure whether Lden is the same calculation as DNL, but Europe's threshold seems to be 55 dB while ours (US) is 65.

Is this post going to end?

Basically, I've been taking notes here so I have some basis for raising questions about the decision to impose this level of noise on a big chunk of Anchorage for four months.  Two days into this and I'm already on edge.  Jets flying over all night - even with heavy duty ear plugs in - is affecting my sleep and there are all the other stress issues the studies show.  The DNL numbers are one way to measure this, but are they the best way?  The average sound is important for long term steady health impacts.  But in terms of health, I would guess that measuring  the loudest sounds and how often people subjected to them is equally or more important.  It's hard to sleep through occasional 120 dB periods (rock concert is listed as 115 dB)  all night.

I understand the airport makes a lot of money from cargo flights through the airport and disrupting that may encourage cargo companies to fly through Fairbanks instead of Anchorage.  Maybe the heaviest cargo planes that can't use the shorter north-south runway should go through Fairbanks at night.   Maybe they should give a discount to flights that are delayed during a night time east-west runway ban.  I don't know the answer.  But it doesn't look like health and inconvenience played nearly as big a role in their calculations as keeping the money rolling into the airport.  That's not a small matter, or course, but for a big swath of Anchorage to have its summer disrupted by continuous jet noise is no small matter either.  The Municipality's dog noise page tells us that:

"Few things in life are as annoying as having to listen to the constant bark, howl, whine or cry of another person's dog."

Well, constant loud airplane noises can be just as annoying.

 This is my starting point.  Let's see what I find out.

And I would add that it's Friday now.  Thursday night seemed to have fewer flights and with my earplugs I made it through the night ok.

[I've added some pictures of planes from our deck here.]

* I got this through the UAA consortium library, so I'm not sure if you need a library id to get this article.  Here is the citation.  An Anchorage library card would probably work through Loussac. Here's the citation:
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment Volume 36, May 2015, Pages 152-159 Estimation of airport noise impacts on public health. A case study of İzmir Adnan Menderes Airport

The New Abnormal

We've all been warned about the 'normalization' of previously unthinkable acts with the president as the main example.  Things that would have destroyed every past president, Trump does daily with (so far)  impunity, because enough Republicans in Congress put their reelection above the good of the United States.  

But I'm noticing something else - ordinary acts of decency, that used to be pretty routine, are now glorified and persons involved are given hero status.  Here are two stories from the ADN in the last two days:

Man helps woman in wheelchair (Link goes to theWashington Post version ADN reprinted)

Bilal Quintyne was on a training run and saw a 67 year old woman stranded in a broken wheel chair.  He stopped and pushed the chair (whose battery had died) home, a 30 minute walk.

We used to expect people to do that sort of thing.  When we arrived in the 1970s, Alaskans knew if they skidded off the road, the next passing pick-up would pull them out of the ditch.  Bilal was on a training run, and pushing the balky wheelchair for 30 minutes would work different muscles maybe, but it wasn't a big departure from what he was doing.  Was it a good thing to do?  Yes, of course.  But not helping would have been shameful.  In the old days helping others in need was expected of us all, like saying please and thank you.


People find engraved bracelet on Seldovia beach and return it to owner

This was in the letters to the editor today.  Again, this used to simply be common decency.  People looking out for each other.  This one is a little different because it's a thank you from the person who got the bracelet back.  So it's not the editor picking up a story and highlighting it.  But there have been others of late, particularly on social media.

The Point

I have mixed feelings here.  On the one hand, these kinds of actions should be everyday occurrences.  Unremarkable.  Simply people helping people because that's what decent people in a decent society do.

On the other hand, it's not a bad thing to remind people that these things are occurring all the time. So, I guess I'd say we should get these kinds of stories - I'm sure they inspire others to copy them - but we shouldn't make these folks out like heroes, like unusual events.  Rather, people who don't do these sorts of things should be pictured as troubled.

And, of course, if someone helps another while taking great personal risks, then, yes, that shows heroism.  But not finding a woman in a broken wheel chair and helping her get home.  Not finding an engraved bracelet and tracking down the owner.  Those should be treated as normal behavior, not heroic acts.

Our perception of things like the prevalence of crime and human decency tend to be anecdotal and emotional, not fact based.  I've written here before that when  highlighting a car crash death, the reporter ought to also mention how many people did NOT die in a car crash that day.  Just to help us keep things in perspective.

I'm all for stories of people doing good deeds, but keeping them in perspective as what a decent citizen is expected to do.  Not making the good samaritans into  heroes doing unexpected goodness.  We shouldn't be making doing good deeps into the new abnormal.

Anchorage International Airport Diverting Jets Over Midtown To Work On North-South Runway

Jets are flying overhead.  Last night throughout the night, the sound of jets.  On and off during the day and again tonight.  So I checked the Anchorage International Airport website.  They're rebuilding the north-south runway which means wee'll get a lot more noisy traffic taking off over Mid-town Anchorage.  It's nice to have the airport ten minutes away when you're flying.  But not when you're in town and the jets are diverted over your house.

Construction Schedule
Construction is planned for two construction seasons: 2018 and 2019.
During the 2018 summer, the runway will be partially closed, and it will be fully closed during the 2019 summer. Modified operations will occur throughout the two construction seasons; during these time periods operations will require heavier cargo aircraft to be shifted to the east-west runways. In order to complete the project, the North/South Runway will be closed and modified operations will occur during construction for approximately two (2) seasons. During construction, the majority of air traffic will be shifted to the east/west runways. Most arrivals will land from the west, and most departures will take off to the east, creating a temporary increase in air traffic and noise over areas east and southeast of the airport. Airport operations will return to normal between construction seasons and once construction is complete. Every effort is being made to reduce noise and impacts to local residents.
2018: To expedite project delivery, construction is scheduled 7 days per week, 24 hours per day, from the middle of June through October 2018. During the 2018 construction season, the North/South Runway will have full or partial closures for brief durations. There will be a three week full closure starting on June 18, 2018. Between these fully closed periods, the shortened runway is anticipated to remain operational. The full length of the North/South Runway will be returned to service for the winter 2018/2019.

[I intended to save this and finish it later, but it seems I hit the publish button instead.  So I cleaned it up a little this morning.]

Here's the next post on this.  It gets into DNL - the metric they use to measure acceptable airport noise and health impacts of noise.

Nicole Stellon O'Donnell's Steam Laundry

My bookclub met here last night.  We'd read Steam Laundry.  I can't recall a book quite like it.
Based on letters and other documents the author found in archives, it tells the story of a woman who, with her two sons, follows her husband to the gold fields of Dawson City in 1898.  The story is told in poems mostly with a letter or two and other documents, like a doctor's prescription.

I want here only to alert you to this wonderful, unique book.  I was skeptical when others described it, but the pages went by too fast.  It's short and can be read in several hours, though it deserves more than one reading.  It's the kind of book that reminds me how much beauty and feeling can be captured in words if one takes the time and has the talent.

Let me direct you to the author's website to learn more.

Our book club hosts (me last night) try to serve some refreshments that directly relate to the book. There wasn't much literal food in these poems.  They were living in the wilderness through the winter.  Potatoes are mentioned.  Caribou strips.  And then there was this:

"In the stewpot
chunks of moose, an onion
with the rot peeled away, the last
of the summer’s potatoes
bubble, and steam soaks the lifted lid,
a perfect moon, dripping
round and hopeful"

I remembered a hunter friend over the weekend and asked if I might be able to get a small amount of moose or caribou.  He had caribou [moose] at 10th & M (a place that butchers and stores the meat of hunters).  So he was only able to get it to me Monday morning.  Two pounds.  I thawed it, cubed it, browned it, then added other ingredients from a recipe I found online.

I understand better now why some hunters hunt.  The meat was dark read, cut easily, and delicious.  We tend not to eat meat, but make exceptions on special occasions.  This was one.  Loussac Library has lots of copies, or better yet, go buy one.  You'll want to savor the words and images.

When It Comes To Guns, We Don't Need New Laws 'Cause People Will Still Get Guns, But When It Comes To Immigrants, They Think Taking Away The Kids Will Stop Folks

I know logic and consistency don't matter with the Trump administration, but I think about all the NRA folks swatting away any law that might make it harder for some people to get guns, saying, "Criminals will still get guns.'

And I say, no matter what Congress does, immigrants will still come.

Remember the folks who jumped out of the World Trade Center to avoid burning to death?

The people fleeing from countries where they're in daily danger from community and domestic violence have a much greater chance of saving themselves by seeking asylum in the US than the people who jumped out the windows.  And even if they're told about Trump's policies, it sounds better than the fires burning around them at home.

But the Trump administration thinks taking away the kids - and for many this will mean a life of severe psychological damage, particularly for the youngest kids - will stop people from jumping out of the burning countries.

From the NYTimes:

"But advocates inside the administration, most prominently Stephen Miller, Mr. Trump’s senior policy adviser, never gave up on the idea. Last month, facing a sharp uptick in illegal border crossings, Mr. Trump ordered a new effort to criminally prosecute anyone who crossed the border unlawfully — with few exceptions for parents traveling with their minor children.
And now Mr. Trump faces the consequences. With thousands of children detained in makeshift shelters, his spokesmen this past week had to deny accusations that the administration was acting like Nazis. Even evangelical supporters like Franklin Graham said its policy was 'disgraceful.'”

How much more of this evil* will the Republicans in the Senate go along with?  Certainly those not running for reelection in November need to stand up to this severely troubled man in the White House.


*I don't use this term lightly, but these people, who seriously advocate separating young children from their parents, are morally incompetent, not to mention that whatever possible short term gain, will be far offset by the long-term damage to these kids.

Read this Twitter thread by a reporter who was forcibly separated from his father as a young child.

when i was four, i was taken away from my father during an intense custody battle and placed in a group home for several years by an idiot judge. we went to parks and zoos, too, and then i’d cry myself to sleep most nights. the trauma left me bent for years. this is child abuse. https://t.co/3rsFfkIptX

— dell cameron (@dellcam) June 16, 2018

Anchorage Pridefest and Parade

Thursday was warm (70s) and sunny.  Friday was gray, Friday night it rained a lot.  But this morning the streets were dry but the clouds were still here.  I biked downtown to get in the Congregation Beth Sholom group at the parade, but I couldn't find them.  So I chained the bike to a tree and waited just before where the groups entered the parade route.  (Why the groups don't have
any body on the streets.)  There were lots of bubbles.

The Royal Court.

Here's Mayor Berkowitz (light blue) near the front of the parade with an APD car behind.

Planned Parenthood.

The Alaska Native Health Consortium.

Anchorage Public Library.

BP

Pride Youth Network

And I joined in when Congregation Beth Sholom arrived.

James was staffing the Full Circle booth and signed up the friend I was with.  They've come a long way from when we subscribed.  Back then they didn't carry Alaska grown stuff, stopping delivery when we were away was tricky, and they didn't deliver to your door.

Brian Conwell was working at the AKDems booth.  He grew up in Dutch Harbor, just graduated from high school, and is headed to Harvard when the summer's over.  This is someone to keep an eye on.  I'll bet we hear his name in the future.












Aaron just arrived in Alaska for the first time ever last week from Chicago.  He's a legal intern at the ACLU.

Kim works with the American Foundation for Suicide Prevention and I wanted get her take on the Netflix show "13 Reasons Why" which we just finished.  She hasn't seen it yet.  Her organization isn't using it, but she's heard that reactions vary a lot and for some it could well push people to suicide, but she's happy people are talking about suicide.  She said they were getting a lot more people coming to the booth this year.

Bryan was there with his family.  He went to school with my daughter.

Dani was there representing UAA.

Candidates tend to show up for events like this and I got to meet Dimitri Shein who is running as a Democrat for the US House.  This is the race that Alyse Galvin is in as an independent.  Which doesn't mean an Independent Party member, but just no party declared.  But with a recent Alaska Supreme Court ruling, she's running in the Democratic Primary.  Whoever wins - Alyse or Dimitri - will run against Don Young.   

It was cooler than last year and when the breeze picked up, it was getting chilly.  But all that was good for the many, many bubbles.

The hell and damnation guy was there spouting his vitriol against gays, but not too many were paying any attention at all.  I don't understand how so called Christians can interpret Christ's message as intolerant and exclusive and damning.  It's truly a feat of one person twisting the bible's meaning to support his own unchristian views.    I decided he needs to be noted, but I don't need to include a picture.  

Only A Country Of Sick People Takes Kids From Their Parents

The people who make these kinds of decisions have no conscience.

But people in a democracy bear responsibility for allowing their government to do such things.

Everyone needs to make peace with people of opposing ideologies.
Everyone needs to recognize our society oppresses everyone in one way or another.  Most get over it.  Others grow to become the oppressors.  We all need to smile when we meet people on the street.  To imagine everyone we meet as a brother, as a future Nobel Prize winner, of US president, or great athlete, and our behavior toward others will improve.  (Unless you hate your brother.)

This is just sick.  What did these official not get as children.  Or get too much of?  To use the kids as a political bargaining tool is unconscionable.

And if your members of Congress get a letter, email, or phone call about this, I'm sure most will agree.