Summer began the last couple of days. Today is magnificent. I went to a rally against guns in Fairview and here are a couple of shots of the bike trail. It's the kind of green that first awed me on a half-day layover in Anchorage 51 years ago. And made me susceptible to a job offer ten years later.
This is the Chester Creek bike trail (the Lanie Fleischer trail) and now I'm getting ready to go in the opposite direction on the Campbell Creek trail for a party for someone special turning two.
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Saturday, June 02, 2018
Friday, June 01, 2018
Trump's Actions Clearly Advance Russian Interests
"In 1969 Richard Nixon’s Attorney General John Mitchell advised the press to 'watch what we do, not what we say.'” (I double-checked this at HistoryNewsNetwork)If we listen to what the Trump administration says, there's been no collusion with Russia, though he does seem to like Putin and other authoritarian leaders like the Philippines' Duterte, Turkey's Erdogan, and the feeling is apparently mutual.
If we look at some of the Trump administration's key 'achievements'*, they all seem to help Russia, mainly by weakening the West's alliances that keep Russia in check.
*I put quotes around 'achievements' because most of them are about breaking things rather than creating things.
1. Getting out of the Paris Climate Treaty
2. Getting out of the Iran Nuclear Agreement
3. Tariffs for Europe, Canada, and Mexico, etc.
4. Getting out of the Trans Pacific Partnership
5. Trump's support of Brexit
All these actions weaken alliances by a) removing the US, b) building distrust for the US c) making it harder for the remaining countries to reach an agreement. The last one has particular benefits for China by weakening US influence in the Asia Pacific region. And by removing the US from these situations, Russia gains more influence.
6. North Korea
Let's see where this goes. As I've said before, I would guess that North Korea is far better prepared for any summit talks than the US. Since the armistice (not end) of the Korean War (which the North Koreans call, “Victorious Fatherland Liberation War,”) the North Koreans have been far more focused on the US than vice versa. The US walked away and most US citizens have forgotten, if they ever knew, that
“The physical destruction and loss of life on both sides was almost beyond comprehension, but the North suffered the greater damage, due to American saturation bombing and the scorched-earth policy of the retreating U.N. forces,” [Charles K. Armstrong, a professor of Korean history at Columbia University] wrote. [From Washington Post]They've been rehearsing for this meeting since the 1950s. Meanwhile, Trump's assault on the State Department (through budget cuts, position cuts, and demoralization that has led to a large scale resignations) means we lose the expertise we had on North Korea and Asia (not to mention everywhere else), which makes it harder for us to be prepared. This echoes the purging of China experts in the 1950s.
It's also important to remember that besides South Korea, North Korea borders China and Russia, so both have an interest in what happens there. If, in the end, North Korea denuclearizes, that's good for China and Russia. If they don't, and the US loses face, that's also good for China and Russia.
And we have to remember that meeting with Kim Jong Un is NOT a victory for Trump. Any American president could have met with him. BUT, it is a huge victory for Kim Jong Un, who is seen by the world on equal footing with the president of the United States. This is something other presidents have refused to give him without reassurances of ending his nuclear program in advance.
7. Trump's anti-immigration rhetoric
Aside from securing military bases in Syria, which help assure that the Russian navy can get out to the world through the Bosporus in Turkey, Putin's benefited by the build-up of refugees trying to get into Europe. This issue, probably more than any other, has weakened the European Union. Rising nationalism in the Eastern bloc of the EU, particularly in Hungary and Poland, is fueled in large part by immigration that threatens linguistic and cultural identity.
Brexit added UK to this, and now Italy is shifting right, in both cases immigration played a role.
All this means that Europe is less united in standing up to Russia in the Ukraine and possibly the Baltic states and who knows where else. Even Sweden is preparing to better protect itself from Russian aggression.
8. Trump's destruction of civil discourse and traditional presidential norms
Anything that makes the US less able to take on new challenges, to look positively toward the future, and to have a united population that can strongly support its government, makes it harder to maintain the US's strong role in the world. I'd add a few caveats here:
- we were already losing our civility and unity, though Trump was a key player in this by keeping the birther movement going and stoking the racist hatred of a black president
- many would argue that we were too strong at times - waging wars that basically supported US business interests (including the arms industry) at the expense of the economies of developing countries.
But there is no doubt that Trump's actions have further divided the US and our Congress can't move because of the radical right wing of the Republican party and the inability of the 'traditional Republicans' to deal with Trump. This leaves him to willy-nilly wreak havoc.
Consider this a thought piece. A draft. I've offered some links where you can get more info to support my claims, you can check the others as well as I. It's way too nice a day to be inside at the computer. Even outside at the computer. Much better things to do.
Wednesday, May 30, 2018
Catchup: RBG At Bear Tooth, May Day Tree Invasion In Back Yard,
The much abbreviated (from last year) bike rack at Bear Tooth Cinema was packed when I rode over Sunday to see RBG, the movie about Ruth Bader Ginsburg. What I didn't know about her (well there was a lot of personal stuff too) was the key role she played in winning cases at the Supreme Court that broke barriers for women before she got on the court.
I did think about how conservatives might view this movie. But then we would probably need a couple of hours to define conservative. After all, Orin Hatch (certainly we'd classify him as a conservative) seemed convinced (in the movie) that she was well qualified to be on the bench, even though he didn't agree with her on many issues. I also wondered how I'd react to a similar film on Antonin Scalia, who also had some screen time in RBG. I was also encouraged by the scenes of her working in the gym with her personal trainer.
I've written in the past about the May Day Tree (also known as choke cherry) invasion in Anchorage. They've snuck into our backyard. Last summer I clipped off the branches of one I discovered blooming profusely on the other side of the fence way in the back. I had to get all the flowers and put them in the garbage. I didn't want any stray seeds growing in the yard. The I let the leaves die and fall off and cut up the branches. Some I've shown out in the garbage, most I've been able to scatter in pieces around the yard.
I was planning on cutting down the tree, but someone - I'm guessing the utility folks since it was growing into the power line - did that for me. But what they left has green shoots growing out of it this year.
Blooming May Day tree well hidden on left |
But to my dismay, I found another tree, about 14 feet high - full of flowers. It's well hidden by the other trees - it's on the left in the picture. But I can't see it, which is why I didn't spot it last summer I guess. Our yard is just a normal 1/4 acre city lot, but it has a hill and lots of trees. But I was checking on what's growing and found it. So yesterday I clipped all the flowers, put a few in vases in the house and bagged the rest. Cut off all the branches and I'll cut that one down too.
Cut branches of Choke Cherry (May Day) flowers |
The problem is that these trees, which are not native to Alaska, thrive in Anchorage. They grow fast and spread seeds all over choking out native plants. And they make moose sick. The older post explains the details and how it kills moose.
There are other invasive species as well. The one I've come to terms with is the dandelion. Especially now as the new ones start growing; soft and tender leaves make a nutritious mea. So I go out and pick very fresh greens for omelets and salads. Here's some nutritional information from an earlier post.
cooking dandelion greens |
Labels:
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Tuesday, May 29, 2018
"Stolen antifreeze, alcohol and fake fingernails: Fred Meyer shoplifting sting nabs 25 suspects
That was the headline in the story in the Anchorage Daily News about a shoplifting sting at Fred Meyer's on Northern Lights and New Seward Highway. I'd been at a hearing on crime last year where lots of folks complained. Particularly some guys from Home Depot and Lowe's about shoplifters regularly walking out with big ticket items like chain saws, and how the stores did nothing because of SB91that made such arrests futile. One guy claimed they'd lost about $800,000 last year.
So this sting to catch shoplifters at Fred Meyer sounded like a good idea. About time. Until I read it. The fake fingernails should have been a red flag, though they turned out to be one of the more expensive items.
This program, called "Retail Detail" is, it says, a partnership with the big box store loss prevention teams and the Anchorage Police Department (APD), and began about six months ago. Well, that was just after that hearing I went to last October.
So they'd be costing about $50/hour. Times ten (we're being conservative and assuming not all were working all nine hours) = $500. Times nine hours = $4500. This is an extremely conservative number because it doesn't count any time in preparation for this sting or follow up. This doesn't count the time of the loss prevention team members.
So what did they get? The headline says 25 suspects. I'm assuming these are arrests, not convictions. What grabbed my attention was the value of the merchandise of each shoplifter. From the article:
So this sting to catch shoplifters at Fred Meyer sounded like a good idea. About time. Until I read it. The fake fingernails should have been a red flag, though they turned out to be one of the more expensive items.
This program, called "Retail Detail" is, it says, a partnership with the big box store loss prevention teams and the Anchorage Police Department (APD), and began about six months ago. Well, that was just after that hearing I went to last October.
"Carson said about 20 police officers, both undercover and marked, took part in the shoplifting sting. The operation lasted about nine hours, from the afternoon into the night."I don't know that all the police officers worked all nine hours or that they weren't doing other work and came when called. But let's say 10 officers for nine hours. Say their pay is $32-42/hour and the State Labor Department says the mean statewide pay for police/sheriff is $39 and the median is $40. An Alaska Policy Forum report says on MOA salaries says that benefits are about 30% of salaries. Though that's an average and I'm guessing it's a bit higher for police. But let's use 30%.
So they'd be costing about $50/hour. Times ten (we're being conservative and assuming not all were working all nine hours) = $500. Times nine hours = $4500. This is an extremely conservative number because it doesn't count any time in preparation for this sting or follow up. This doesn't count the time of the loss prevention team members.
So what did they get? The headline says 25 suspects. I'm assuming these are arrests, not convictions. What grabbed my attention was the value of the merchandise of each shoplifter. From the article:
#1 [the article includes name and age, but I don't see the point here] "was arrested after he ran into the side of a patrol car on a stolen bicycle. Dickson had taken the bike from outside of the store. . . the bike brakes didn't work. #1 smashed into the side of the patrol car, causing "pretty good damage" to the rig."So we have to add the cost of the damage to the rig. Not sure how much a bike with no brakes is worth. Not much I'm guessing. I'll put down $20 which I think is generous. But it clearly wasn't store merchandise. Just a brakeless bike someone left there.
#2 hid fake fingernails worth $48.25 in his jacket pocket
#3A stole three cans of spray paint and ran from officers as #3B, sat waiting in a getaway vehicle, police say. #3A was arrested for theft, resisting arrest and violating conditions of release. #3B was arrested on two counts of misconduct involving a weaponFred Meyer's website wasn't very helpful (one kind of Spray Paint wasn't available at the Northern Lights store, another kind didn't have a price.) At Walmart, spray paint ranges from $2.64 - $5.68. So let's say three cans were worth $15.
#4 and a 13-year-old girl stole $103.86 worth of food. #4 was arrested for theft, contributing to the delinquency of a minor and violating conditions of release. The teenager was arrested and released to her parents.Age might be relevant here if these two aren't relatives. He was 32.
#5 stole $47.83 worth of various merchandise. She was arrested for theft, and had an outstanding warrant for a probation violation.
#6A and #6B stole $215.17 worth of food and merchandise. Both were arrested for theft; #6A had an outstanding warrant for a probation violation.
#7 stole a comforter costing $34.99. He was arrested for theft.
#8 stole $11.16 in food. He was arrested for theft.
#9 stole $288.56 worth of merchandise. He was arrested for theft and failure to register as a sex offender.
#10 tried to run from the store with $40.55 worth of merchandise, but officers caught him. He was arrested for theft, resisting arrest and violating conditions of release.
#11 stole $5.48 worth of food. He was arrested for theft, and on an outstanding warrant for failure to appear in court.
#12 stole $13.69 in alcohol. He was arrested for theft.
#13 stole $54.99 in shoes. He had a concealed gun on him and didn't tell officers; he was arrested for theft and misconduct involving a weapon.
#14 stole $52.50 in shoes. He was arrested for theft.
#15 was recognized by employees as having an outstanding misdemeanor warrant for theft. She was arrested on the warrant.
#16 put $87.87 of merchandise in his backpack and walked out of the store. He had heroin on him. He was arrested for theft and misconduct involving a controlled substance.
#17 stole $22.98 in antifreeze. He was arrested for theft.
#18 was recognized by employees as a repeat trespass offender, and was arrested for trespassing.
#19 stole $6.59 of food. He was arrested for theft.
#20 was recognized by officers from two outstanding warrants: a felony warrant for promoting contraband and misconduct involving a controlled substance, and a misdemeanor warrant for failure to appear in court. She was arrested.
#21 stole $337.15 worth of assorted merchandise. She was arrested for theft.
#22 stole $221.22 in merchandise. She was arrested on an outstanding felony warrant for failure to appear in court, as well as theft and resisting arrest.
The headline says 25 suspects, but the numbers only go up to #22. There were two listed in #3, #4 (a 13 year old girl), and #6.
By the time I finished this list, I was nodding my head. Let's look at the numbers:
Some Key Numbers |
---|
25 arrests
Total value stolen = $1630 or $181/hour
Average amount(mean) = $74
Median = about $38 (two middle numbers were $35 and $41)
If you order from lowest to most, #16 is $19 below the average.
The last six accounted for $1254. Conservative estimate of cost of sting: $4500 |
We're looking at a people who stole $5, $6, and $11 worth of food. Several people who hadn't taken anything, but were recognized by store employees as problems.
This doesn't reflect the stories I heard about Home Depot and Lowe's. Most of these sound like poor people - homeless? - who took small amounts.
I'm not saying there's no problem here. Fred Meyer is open (at least now) from 7am - 12 am, or 17 hours. For simplicity sake, let's calculate the other seven hours at the same rate. We get $3070 per day in theft. And assuming Fred Meyer is open every day, $1,123,470 a year. (We don't really know if this is an average day, a high day, or a low day, or if the hours they didn't work the sting had the same level of theft. So this is just a ball park guess.)
That's not peanuts. But is the cost of preventing those thefts greater than the costs of the thefts? For this particularly day it cost at least three times more than the value of the items stolen. (I'm assuming that my $4500 figure is way low.) Could the money be used in a way that prevented the most of the thefts instead of simply (temporarily for most) incarcerating the thieves.
Or, is there a certain number of shoplifters who cause the bulk of the problem - like the ones who took over $88 each? If they're removed would that cut the bulk of the problem? In this sting, six people were responsible for 77% of the value of the stolen goods. (from the table, $1254 (value taken by top six)/1630 (total value taken) = 77%)
Maybe there's some value to catching people with outstanding warrants or who violate their parole that goes beyond the value of what was stolen. Some of these might be clever thieves. But most sound like pretty desperate people. Maybe some who aren't so desperate, but have some mental health needs to shoplift. It's not clear how many of these people actually bought other items in addition to what they were stealing and how many just tried to walk out without paying anything.
That's not peanuts. But is the cost of preventing those thefts greater than the costs of the thefts? For this particularly day it cost at least three times more than the value of the items stolen. (I'm assuming that my $4500 figure is way low.) Could the money be used in a way that prevented the most of the thefts instead of simply (temporarily for most) incarcerating the thieves.
Or, is there a certain number of shoplifters who cause the bulk of the problem - like the ones who took over $88 each? If they're removed would that cut the bulk of the problem? In this sting, six people were responsible for 77% of the value of the stolen goods. (from the table, $1254 (value taken by top six)/1630 (total value taken) = 77%)
Maybe there's some value to catching people with outstanding warrants or who violate their parole that goes beyond the value of what was stolen. Some of these might be clever thieves. But most sound like pretty desperate people. Maybe some who aren't so desperate, but have some mental health needs to shoplift. It's not clear how many of these people actually bought other items in addition to what they were stealing and how many just tried to walk out without paying anything.
I don't know the answer to this. Obviously social and mental health services for those who are unable to work or cannot find a job or hold one might help cut into this problem.
I just wanted to put all those costs together and match them to the cost of the sting. There may well be costs and benefits I've missed.
It may seem like a trivial issue, but the kind of thinking through the numbers and different ways to spend the money, different ways to lessen shoplifting, is the kind of thinking we should be applying to all sort of issues from immigration to terrorism. Arrests by law enforcement at Fred Meyer or on the border, or combat, only means that other means have failed, or haven't even been tried.
I just wanted to put all those costs together and match them to the cost of the sting. There may well be costs and benefits I've missed.
It may seem like a trivial issue, but the kind of thinking through the numbers and different ways to spend the money, different ways to lessen shoplifting, is the kind of thinking we should be applying to all sort of issues from immigration to terrorism. Arrests by law enforcement at Fred Meyer or on the border, or combat, only means that other means have failed, or haven't even been tried.
Monday, May 28, 2018
Plant Trees While You Browse, But Does It Really Work?
Someone in Holland got here (this blog) via a browser called "Ecosia." I'd never heard of it before so I checked it out.
The image isn't too clear, but if you click on it you'll get to Ecosia search engine and you can play around there to find out more about what they're about.
For those wondering why planting trees is a good thing, here's a list of reasons from ClimateRally
- An average size tree creates sufficient oxygen in one year to provide oxygen for a family of four.
- Planting trees in the right place around buildings and homes can cut air-conditioning costs up to 50 percent.
- Planting trees for the environment is good as they are renewable, biodegradable and recyclable.
- If we plant 20 million trees, the earth will get with 260 million more tons of oxygen.
- Once acre of trees can remove up to 2.6 tons of Carbon Dioxide each year.
- During photosynthesis, trees and other plants absorb carbon dioxide and give off oxygen.
- Trees keep in cheek the air and water pollution.
- Why planting trees is important is evident as they are the natural habitat of the animals and birds, as well as many endangered species.
- Planting trees means more wood and paper products which can be easily recycled.
- A newly planted whole forest, can change tons of atmospheric carbon into wood and other fibrous tissue, thus reducing global warming.
Here''s more from Trees Utah.
I was really excited about this, but figured I better do some checking to see how they can do this and whether I can trust them.
Does Ecosia do what it says?
Reviewopedia discusses what Ecosia says about itself, but doesn't seem to have any independent analysis.
Green Review gives a fairly harsh review, saying that Eosia uses Bing, which is owned by Microsoft and that clicks, not searches, generate money for trees. But only after Microsoft gets its cut. It recommends Google over Ecosia.
A Path Around The World - has a long and thoughtful review. But it doesn't mention the connection to Bing and Microsoft at all. But it looks at Ecosia's financial reports (unaudited self-reporting) and does some comparisons of its utility as a browser to Google.
Being ethically responsible isn't easy. Make your own evaluation.
Sunday, May 27, 2018
Sleeping In Public, Immigrants, Separating Kids From Parents, Can Getting Stoned Cure All This? Sunday Reading
NPR's Ted Talk show this week* , Attention Please, was about how the world is vying for your attention. They noted the average person sees (does that include hears) 4000 - 10,000 ads a day, all competing for your attention. I've been writing here about how people's attention is diverted from critical issues, from learning deeply enough to understand critical issues.
*Link gets you to this week's show which will thus be out of date soon This link gets you to one of the talks on this subject.
And I'd remind you that this blog DOES NOT TAKE ANY ADS. The more time you spend here, the fewer adds you're subject too. :)
Here are some recent articles that cover well issues that we either don't hear or think about enough, or at all.
1. Sleeping In Public - Starts with a story about a Yale student calling the police because black Yale student dozed off in a dorm common room, but goes on to explore our norms against sleeping in public. It gives some examples of where it's ok, but doesn't mention the beach, where it's ok if you're in swim wear, but not if your in street clothes. Think about your reaction to people you see sleeping in public - when is it ok, where is it ok, does it matter how they're dressed or what color they are?
2. Crackdown on immigrants takes a toll on federal judge: 'I have presided over a process that destroys families' - a judge talks about how soul destroying his job is. Here's a brief snippet:
3. Taking Children from Their Parents Is a Form of State Terror - Masha Gessen is bi-cultural having grown up in both the US and the Soviet Union/Russia (maybe they makes her trip-cultural.) She was a journalist in Russia and has written a searing biography about Putin. She's someone I think understands the world better than most. Here's a paragraph from that piece that is a relevant follow-up to #3 above.
4. Why We Should Say Yes to Drugs - Andrew Sullivan argues that psychedelic drugs help expand people's minds, help people experience universal love and see the unity of humankind. From Jesus to Lennon we've heard "All You Need Is Love." And that's why authoritarian leaders over the same time period have wanted them banned. (The last sentence is my thought. But the idea is connected with George Carlin's piece )
*Link gets you to this week's show which will thus be out of date soon This link gets you to one of the talks on this subject.
And I'd remind you that this blog DOES NOT TAKE ANY ADS. The more time you spend here, the fewer adds you're subject too. :)
Here are some recent articles that cover well issues that we either don't hear or think about enough, or at all.
1. Sleeping In Public - Starts with a story about a Yale student calling the police because black Yale student dozed off in a dorm common room, but goes on to explore our norms against sleeping in public. It gives some examples of where it's ok, but doesn't mention the beach, where it's ok if you're in swim wear, but not if your in street clothes. Think about your reaction to people you see sleeping in public - when is it ok, where is it ok, does it matter how they're dressed or what color they are?
2. Crackdown on immigrants takes a toll on federal judge: 'I have presided over a process that destroys families' - a judge talks about how soul destroying his job is. Here's a brief snippet:
Brack also sees migrants charged with drug offenses or long criminal records and is unsparing in their punishment. But they are a minority, he said.
“I get asked the question, ‘How do you continue to do this all day every day?’ I recognize the possibility that you could get hard-edged, you could get calloused, doing what I do,” he said. “I don’t. Every day it’s fresh. I can’t look a father and a husband in the eye and not feel empathy.”
Brack, 65, is the son of a railroad-worker father and homemaker mother and earned a law degree at the University of New Mexico. He served as a state judge before being named to the federal bench by President George W. Bush.
3. Taking Children from Their Parents Is a Form of State Terror - Masha Gessen is bi-cultural having grown up in both the US and the Soviet Union/Russia (maybe they makes her trip-cultural.) She was a journalist in Russia and has written a searing biography about Putin. She's someone I think understands the world better than most. Here's a paragraph from that piece that is a relevant follow-up to #3 above.
"Hostage-taking is an instrument of terror. Capturing family members, especially children, is a tried-and-true instrument of totalitarian terror. Memoirs of Stalinist terror are full of stories of strong men and women disintegrating when their loved ones are threatened: this is the moment when a person will confess to anything. The single most searing literary document of Stalinist terror is “Requiem,” a cycle of poems written by Anna Akhmatova while her son, Lev Gumilev, was in prison. But, in the official Soviet imagination, it was the Nazis who tortured adults by torturing children. In “Seventeen Moments of Spring,” a fantastically popular miniseries about a Soviet spy in Nazi Germany, a German officer carries a newborn out into the cold of winter in an effort to compel a confession out of his mother, who is forced to listen to her baby cry."
4. Why We Should Say Yes to Drugs - Andrew Sullivan argues that psychedelic drugs help expand people's minds, help people experience universal love and see the unity of humankind. From Jesus to Lennon we've heard "All You Need Is Love." And that's why authoritarian leaders over the same time period have wanted them banned. (The last sentence is my thought. But the idea is connected with George Carlin's piece )
Saturday, May 26, 2018
We Should Praise The President, When Praise Is Due
If Trump ever meets with Kim Jong Un and they work out a plan that denuclearizes the Korean peninsula, the folks on the Left ought to give Trump credit.
I played with this thought as we moved toward the summit in Singapore. Then Trump's cancellation seemed to reinforce my hesitation. I ended up writing about how it seemed to me that Trump really only cares about policy if he thinks it will burnish his image, his brand, his fortunes, his sexual reputation. (Note, he's one of the few, if not the only high profile male who's been accused of sexual predation but hasn't apologized, resigned, or been indicted.)
Talking about policy triumphs is difficult because it takes a while to determine if something actually was a good thing or not. The 1991 first war against Iraq that pushed them out of Kuwait seems to have worked. But Jr.'s attack on Iraq a decade later seems to be a total disaster. We were supposedly going in because of weapons of mass destruction that turned out to be non-existent. (Just as LBJ's premise for entering the Vietnam war was fabricated.) We were supposedly avenging the 3000 deaths in the World Trade Center attacks. There have been about 200,000 Iraqi civilian deaths to date. Saddam Hussein was NOT a man to admire, but like Tito in Yugoslavia, he maintained peace among different ethnic groups in Iraq. More importantly for some, Saddam's Iraq was a major force for keeping Iran in check.
I'm not defending Saddam here. There would have been many civilian deaths had he stayed in power. And one could argue that the young men he sacrificed in wars against Iran, had been civilians before they were forced into the military. But it didn't need to be the United States' problem. Our desire to help oppressed people is laudable (when that isn't simply an excuse to help US corporations access raw materials like oil). But sometimes if someone is drowning, jumping in after them only results in the rescuer drowning as well as the original victim.
The Arab spring seemed like a loosening of harsh rule in various countries. But when we look at Libya and Syria and Egypt now, the end results aren't all that good.
So, lauding Trump for arranging a meeting with Kim Jong Un seemed premature at best. After all, any of our presidents could have met with Kim or his father. Meeting with them is NOT a victory for the US, but it IS a victory for North Korea. A victory for the US depends on what the US gets in return for giving the head of North Korea equal footing with the president of the United States.
Is there a chance, as Trump now hints post cancellation, that the meeting might actually happen? The one attribute Trump has that past presidents didn't which could give him an edge, is that he's just as volatile, outrageous, and unpredictable as Kim Jong Un. Perhaps even more so. Thus, there's a chance that they actually understand each other. But don't hold your breath.
Kim went to a German language high school in Switzerland. He went to school with people from a variety of countries. And he and his country have been focused on the US for all his life, while I'm not sure Trump could have found Korea on a map before he was president. (May not be able to now.) I suspect that despite appearances, Kim is far better prepared to deal with the US than vice-versa.
Furthermore, Trump reverses himself so often, that one has to be cautious. What seems good (or possibly promising) right now could be reversed by a tweet in an hour. So praising our president for anything is a risky business. Time will tell if he ever does something that improves the United States or the world. So far, there is infinitely more damage being done than we can keep track of. That too will take time to sort out. (Yes, I can go through a list of things that I see as damaging, but it seems evident to me and others. Those who are skeptical aren't likely to be persuaded by a list. But we could go into it more if you leave serious comments.)
I played with this thought as we moved toward the summit in Singapore. Then Trump's cancellation seemed to reinforce my hesitation. I ended up writing about how it seemed to me that Trump really only cares about policy if he thinks it will burnish his image, his brand, his fortunes, his sexual reputation. (Note, he's one of the few, if not the only high profile male who's been accused of sexual predation but hasn't apologized, resigned, or been indicted.)
Talking about policy triumphs is difficult because it takes a while to determine if something actually was a good thing or not. The 1991 first war against Iraq that pushed them out of Kuwait seems to have worked. But Jr.'s attack on Iraq a decade later seems to be a total disaster. We were supposedly going in because of weapons of mass destruction that turned out to be non-existent. (Just as LBJ's premise for entering the Vietnam war was fabricated.) We were supposedly avenging the 3000 deaths in the World Trade Center attacks. There have been about 200,000 Iraqi civilian deaths to date. Saddam Hussein was NOT a man to admire, but like Tito in Yugoslavia, he maintained peace among different ethnic groups in Iraq. More importantly for some, Saddam's Iraq was a major force for keeping Iran in check.
I'm not defending Saddam here. There would have been many civilian deaths had he stayed in power. And one could argue that the young men he sacrificed in wars against Iran, had been civilians before they were forced into the military. But it didn't need to be the United States' problem. Our desire to help oppressed people is laudable (when that isn't simply an excuse to help US corporations access raw materials like oil). But sometimes if someone is drowning, jumping in after them only results in the rescuer drowning as well as the original victim.
The Arab spring seemed like a loosening of harsh rule in various countries. But when we look at Libya and Syria and Egypt now, the end results aren't all that good.
So, lauding Trump for arranging a meeting with Kim Jong Un seemed premature at best. After all, any of our presidents could have met with Kim or his father. Meeting with them is NOT a victory for the US, but it IS a victory for North Korea. A victory for the US depends on what the US gets in return for giving the head of North Korea equal footing with the president of the United States.
Is there a chance, as Trump now hints post cancellation, that the meeting might actually happen? The one attribute Trump has that past presidents didn't which could give him an edge, is that he's just as volatile, outrageous, and unpredictable as Kim Jong Un. Perhaps even more so. Thus, there's a chance that they actually understand each other. But don't hold your breath.
Kim went to a German language high school in Switzerland. He went to school with people from a variety of countries. And he and his country have been focused on the US for all his life, while I'm not sure Trump could have found Korea on a map before he was president. (May not be able to now.) I suspect that despite appearances, Kim is far better prepared to deal with the US than vice-versa.
Furthermore, Trump reverses himself so often, that one has to be cautious. What seems good (or possibly promising) right now could be reversed by a tweet in an hour. So praising our president for anything is a risky business. Time will tell if he ever does something that improves the United States or the world. So far, there is infinitely more damage being done than we can keep track of. That too will take time to sort out. (Yes, I can go through a list of things that I see as damaging, but it seems evident to me and others. Those who are skeptical aren't likely to be persuaded by a list. But we could go into it more if you leave serious comments.)
Friday, May 25, 2018
Graham v MOA #12: Fire Chief LeBlanc Retires
First paragraphs from an ADN article:
He was asked to get the AFD budget under control. In his deposition he expressed no interest in reaching out to the community to increase the number of women or minorities in the AFD. My hope is that the Diversity Mayor will be able to find a new chief for whom increasing the number of women (about 2% now) and people of color (about 12% now) in the fire department will be a major priority.
I'd note that LeBlanc was on the public administration advisory board when I was chair of the department at UAA and he is a very affable person who was always supportive of the program.
"Anchorage Fire Chief Denis LeBlanc retired Friday after nearly three years on the job, officials said.I'm including this hear because LeBlanc was fire chief while the Graham suit went to court. He was never a fire-fighter (usually required for the chief's job). He came from the oil industry, was City Manager for Begich, then went to CM2HHill (the company that bought VECO).
A successor to LeBlanc will be named in a few weeks, said Kristin DeSmith, spokeswoman for Mayor Ethan Berkowitz. Jodie Hettrick, the fire department's deputy chief of operations, is serving as interim chief.
LeBlanc, who is 70, said he told the administration of his decision in early May. He said he has loved the job, but he's been working on and off for 53 years, including a few decades in the oil industry. . ."
He was asked to get the AFD budget under control. In his deposition he expressed no interest in reaching out to the community to increase the number of women or minorities in the AFD. My hope is that the Diversity Mayor will be able to find a new chief for whom increasing the number of women (about 2% now) and people of color (about 12% now) in the fire department will be a major priority.
I'd note that LeBlanc was on the public administration advisory board when I was chair of the department at UAA and he is a very affable person who was always supportive of the program.
Thursday, May 24, 2018
Methinks North Korea Was Always Just A Distraction Trump Used To Get The Media Off Important Stories
[Quick synopsis: I'm proposing that Trump never intended to meet with Kim Jong Un. He always knew he couldn't get Kim to give up his nuclear weapons. The whole point was to have something bright and shiny with which to distract the media from covering other issues. The time spent by NPR this morning on this summit that isn't going to happen makes it clear that Trump succeeded.]
NPR spent a lot of time this morning talking about North Korea and Trump's cancellation of the summit with Kim Jong Un. Here's the list of segments they have on the May 24 show listings. The Korea pieces are at the end.
North Korea Demolishes Its Nuclear Test Site In A 'Huge Explosion" 3:59
Trump Cancels U.S.-North Korea Summit 10:19
North Korea Expert Reacts to Trump's Cancellation of Summit 4:00
There Was A Lot Invested In U.S.-North Korea Summit. What Happened? 8:40
Mike Pompeo Reads Out Loud Trump's Letter Cancelling U.S.-North Korea Summit 1:10
That comes out to a little over 28 minutes - one fourth of the show, talking about something being cancelled. My sense is that the 'Korean Expert' covered most of this. The rest was somewhat informed chatter.
The ten minute segment had several NPR reporters discussing the cancellation. They really didn't say anything that couldn't have been covered in two minutes. They didn't really seem to know more than any reasonably educated person knows. At one point, David Greene says,
One person talks about how the cancelation was a surprise. But Trump's been tweeting that he might not have the meeting. So it wasn't that much of a surprise. Why was it a surprise?
And as I listened and got increasingly frustrated by the ten minute segment, the lightbulb went off. Trump doesn't care about North Korea or having them denuclearize. Sure, getting Kim Jong Un to get destroy his nuclear toys and then become a target for US corporations would have enhanced his deal making image. But only because it would make Trump look good, not because the world would be a safer place. And if it gets more dangerous, that's not Trump's worry. Even as North Korea experts said it couldn't happen, others, as they did during the campaign, started saying, well, maybe his unconventional approach will work.
I would say now that his unconventional approach DID WORK. He got media - even the supposedly more sophisticated' NPR - to spend almost one-quarter of today's Morning Edition time covering something that isn't going to happen. Instead of spending that time on more substantive news that Trump doesn't want them to cover.
This shouldn't come as a revelation - he's been doing this all his career. It's the main tool of scammers and magicians: keep the eyes of the audience away from the real action by distraction. But it takes a while for people to realize that what was critical to other presidents - evaluation of the success of their policies (as subjective as that might be), doesn't matter to Trump. Policy is just one of the shiny toys he can use to distract the media. Outrageous racist comments are another such toy.
Trump, it would seem, never expected to meet with Kim or to get him to denuclearize. But it was a dramatic enough story that he could get endless coverage of it and thus take coverage off of the campaign's dealings with Russia, his numerous conflicts of interest, the shady backgrounds of his constantly changing sets of advisors. You name it and there are plenty of things to cover.
Trump's career has been all about getting attention. 'Good' news for Trump is coverage that makes Trump appear like a business genius and a stud with women. 'Bad' news is only stuff that threatens his power - like the Mueller investigation. Policy issues, whether the tax bill, DACA, climate change, Iran, or North Korean nukes, are neither good nor bad news (unless they affect his 'brand.')
The policy stuff is just glittery distractions he can use to get the media to watch his left hand while his right hand performs the real tricks. He's a kid loose in the White House, pushing buttons, raising and lowering levers, poking here and there without any concern for the damage he might do or what costs the world will bear.
Wake up media! Set your own agenda. Don't let the President lead you by the nose with distracting hijinks.
NPR spent a lot of time this morning talking about North Korea and Trump's cancellation of the summit with Kim Jong Un. Here's the list of segments they have on the May 24 show listings. The Korea pieces are at the end.
North Korea Demolishes Its Nuclear Test Site In A 'Huge Explosion" 3:59
Trump Cancels U.S.-North Korea Summit 10:19
North Korea Expert Reacts to Trump's Cancellation of Summit 4:00
There Was A Lot Invested In U.S.-North Korea Summit. What Happened? 8:40
Mike Pompeo Reads Out Loud Trump's Letter Cancelling U.S.-North Korea Summit 1:10
That comes out to a little over 28 minutes - one fourth of the show, talking about something being cancelled. My sense is that the 'Korean Expert' covered most of this. The rest was somewhat informed chatter.
The ten minute segment had several NPR reporters discussing the cancellation. They really didn't say anything that couldn't have been covered in two minutes. They didn't really seem to know more than any reasonably educated person knows. At one point, David Greene says,
"Ayesha, I just looked at the letter, and there seems to be some important - I don't know if we call it caveats. "Maybe I'm misinterpreting this. Is he only now reading the letter, several minutes into the discussion? Maybe this was more 'breaking' than I realized and he just got it. Maybe that explains why the discussion is so disjointed - he was reading the letter and not paying attention to the conversation. Or doing both and not really absorbing either well. And they didn't have a script to keep them focused.
One person talks about how the cancelation was a surprise. But Trump's been tweeting that he might not have the meeting. So it wasn't that much of a surprise. Why was it a surprise?
And as I listened and got increasingly frustrated by the ten minute segment, the lightbulb went off. Trump doesn't care about North Korea or having them denuclearize. Sure, getting Kim Jong Un to get destroy his nuclear toys and then become a target for US corporations would have enhanced his deal making image. But only because it would make Trump look good, not because the world would be a safer place. And if it gets more dangerous, that's not Trump's worry. Even as North Korea experts said it couldn't happen, others, as they did during the campaign, started saying, well, maybe his unconventional approach will work.
I would say now that his unconventional approach DID WORK. He got media - even the supposedly more sophisticated' NPR - to spend almost one-quarter of today's Morning Edition time covering something that isn't going to happen. Instead of spending that time on more substantive news that Trump doesn't want them to cover.
This shouldn't come as a revelation - he's been doing this all his career. It's the main tool of scammers and magicians: keep the eyes of the audience away from the real action by distraction. But it takes a while for people to realize that what was critical to other presidents - evaluation of the success of their policies (as subjective as that might be), doesn't matter to Trump. Policy is just one of the shiny toys he can use to distract the media. Outrageous racist comments are another such toy.
Trump, it would seem, never expected to meet with Kim or to get him to denuclearize. But it was a dramatic enough story that he could get endless coverage of it and thus take coverage off of the campaign's dealings with Russia, his numerous conflicts of interest, the shady backgrounds of his constantly changing sets of advisors. You name it and there are plenty of things to cover.
Trump's career has been all about getting attention. 'Good' news for Trump is coverage that makes Trump appear like a business genius and a stud with women. 'Bad' news is only stuff that threatens his power - like the Mueller investigation. Policy issues, whether the tax bill, DACA, climate change, Iran, or North Korean nukes, are neither good nor bad news (unless they affect his 'brand.')
The policy stuff is just glittery distractions he can use to get the media to watch his left hand while his right hand performs the real tricks. He's a kid loose in the White House, pushing buttons, raising and lowering levers, poking here and there without any concern for the damage he might do or what costs the world will bear.
Wake up media! Set your own agenda. Don't let the President lead you by the nose with distracting hijinks.
Wednesday, May 23, 2018
For Those Who Want A Break From Watching "the downfall of democracy in real time."
I saw this tweet today.
It was telling me that I don't have to discuss the end of the world in every post.
I'm adding this license plate image to my post on the Vampire History Of Alaska.
One of the workmen who helped with the house last week, showed me this accordion he found in a 'suitcase' (it looks like a suitcase, but it was clearly the accordion case) at a house they were hauling trash from. He told the owner but she told him to take it. He's found a person in Anchorage who can fix it, but now he's debating if it's worth the cost. He doesn't know how to play it, but it's clear he respects good workmanship.
Speaking of the house, we're getting used to having the new light switches that you press instead of flipping up or own. And we're enjoying the clean walls without anything on them. But that leaves stacks of pictures downstairs. I'm thinking of putting up some that haven't been up, and rearranging where the others go. It's odd how changes make us aware of old habits.
And this picture is less inspiring. I don't recall things like this in Anchorage creeks in the past. I'm sure they were there, but I don't recall seeing them.
I thought about pulling it out, but I was on the bridge above on my bike and didn't want to ride on with cold, wet shoes and pants. Maybe I can figure out a rope with a hook if it's still there next time I go by.
And finally, flowers are starting to bloom, perennials are poking out of the ground, and Anchorage is getting green again. This is a rather ruffly daffodil.
Twitter needs a switch for when you just want to log in and read some updog jokes and not watch the downfall of democracy in real time.— snddoɥ ʞɹɐɯ (@markhoppus) May 24, 2018
It was telling me that I don't have to discuss the end of the world in every post.
I'm adding this license plate image to my post on the Vampire History Of Alaska.
One of the workmen who helped with the house last week, showed me this accordion he found in a 'suitcase' (it looks like a suitcase, but it was clearly the accordion case) at a house they were hauling trash from. He told the owner but she told him to take it. He's found a person in Anchorage who can fix it, but now he's debating if it's worth the cost. He doesn't know how to play it, but it's clear he respects good workmanship.
Speaking of the house, we're getting used to having the new light switches that you press instead of flipping up or own. And we're enjoying the clean walls without anything on them. But that leaves stacks of pictures downstairs. I'm thinking of putting up some that haven't been up, and rearranging where the others go. It's odd how changes make us aware of old habits.
And this picture is less inspiring. I don't recall things like this in Anchorage creeks in the past. I'm sure they were there, but I don't recall seeing them.
I thought about pulling it out, but I was on the bridge above on my bike and didn't want to ride on with cold, wet shoes and pants. Maybe I can figure out a rope with a hook if it's still there next time I go by.
And finally, flowers are starting to bloom, perennials are poking out of the ground, and Anchorage is getting green again. This is a rather ruffly daffodil.
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