"Don't Even Begin to Talk To Them Until You've Forgiven Them For Everything"

It's just too nice to be inside blogging.  So here are a few pics about things I'm not blogging about.  [It turns out I couldn't keep to that goal when I tried to briefly summarize the Citizens' Climate Lobby meeting.  The title gets explained near the end.]

Goose Lake still had ice Saturday

After the Citizens' Climate Lobby (CCL) meeting Saturday morning I biked the long way home and digested what I'd heard.   Dana Nuccitelli, a physicist who writes, among other places, at Skeptical Science,  gave some highlights of the latest U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report.  There were actually three recent reports.  The key findings he reported for the first report:

1. 95% confidence level that humans are the main cause of global warming since 1950.
   And that humans are responsible for about 100% of global warming since 1950.  In each of the reports since the 1990s, they've grown in confidence level that humans are the cause.  
2. Predict how much warmer it will get under three different scenarios
1. Business as usual - about 4 or 5˚C (about 9˚F) warming by 2100 as compared to pre-industrial temperatures
2. The GOOD NEWS:  If take action to limit greenhouse gas emissions we can still limit global warming to 2˚C by 2100.  He said 2˚C is a critical number because scientist believe if we go above that we'll have really severe climate effects.  Some scientists say that 2˚C is already too much, but we've already risen 1˚ and another 1/2 will result from the greenhouse gasses already emitted.  So 2˚ is the only reasonable goal we could achieve. 

The second report focused on Climate Impacts and Adaptation - how various scenarios will impact humans and how we can adapt to them and one of the key findings was:

1. For another 2˚C increase we will see an annual decrease of 2% of global income per year and potentially more than that, and if beyond that, economists aren't even comfortable estimating how large they'll be.   Basically it gives us an economic incentive not to go beyond that 2˚C limit.

The third report that came out about a month ago, focused on climate change and  mitigation and the key finding he reported was that:

1. If we act efficiently we can keep global warming going beyond that 2˚C  and it will only cost 0.06% of annual global economic growth.  Putting that into perspective if the global economy grows at 2.3% per year, using that 0.06% figure, it would grow at 2.24% per year.  

So, for a pretty minimal cost, we could prevent very dangerous global warming.  

You can listen to the international phone in presentation here.   These meetings are content rich and move right along.  If you just want to hear the part where Dana talks, go to 11 minutes, where he's being introduced.  and goes to 27:16. 

This post's title comes from a little earlier in the tape where CCL Executive Director and meeting host Mark Reynolds  is talking about one of the CCL staff who was planning a meeting with the Koch brothers. He was trying to explain his difference between being 'nice' and being 'generous.' 

"Sometimes people get confused about what we're trying to do when we we're attempting to do this in the most generous way we possibly can.   What people translate that into sometimes is thinking that we're trying to be a nice organization.  And I don't have any problem with being nice and I'm not against nice people, but that is not what we're trying to do.  53  In my view, being nice implies a certain phoniness, like when you pretend to like someone you don't like.  Whereas human generosity is asking yourself to do something you can't possibly do.  Let me give you one simple example.  I was at a luncheon last November with [corrected spelling: Peter Fiekowsky] who heads up a couple of big projects for CCL.  He's the head of Team Loyal [Oil] and he's also in charge of our hundred year plan.  We were talking before lunch and he had said he'd scheduled his first meeting with the Koch brothers and he asked my advice on what he should talk about.  I try to take as big and generous a view as I possibly can of dealing with people and I really failed in that case because I told Peter I don't know why you're talking to them, I think these are terrible people, I can't imagine meeting with them, I think they're evil, and it's a bad thing.  Peter's always great with me and he's like, OK, Mark, I got that, that's your feedback [?], do you mind if I talk to Father Gerry?  Father Gerry O'Rourke is an 89 year old Catholic priest, who both Peter and I have known for decades and he was instrumental in the North Ireland peace process.  So Peter went off and talked to Father Gerry and we talked later and I said, what did Father Gerry say to you?  And he said, well, he started by saying basically what you said.  And I'm like, see, Peter?  I told you so.  And then he said this:  I'm going to tell you to do what I told the people in Northern Ireland they had to do.  And that is, Don't even begin to talk to them until you have forgiven them for everything.

So that doesn't mean you say out loud to someone "I forgive you."  But it's asking yourself to do something you're not capable of doing at that moment.  You know, I think Charles Du Bois said it correctly.  "The important thing is this:  At any moment to be able to sacrifice what we are for what we could become."  I think that's the organization we're trying to be and the way of working we're trying to emulate  and sometimes people confuse that with something simple called "nice" and I just wanted to be clear that we're all talking about the same thing."

 As you can see, I got carried away with the meeting and actually did write a whole post.  the picture is of Goose Lake which still had, yesterday, ice on the surface of most of the lake.  But we've had several days with temperatures into the 70s (at least in our backyard) so it can't last long.

I'll put up the other pictures later.   Maybe.

How Much Do You Pay Your Lobbyist? Nothing? Maybe That's Why

. . . the things you want your legislature to pass don't get passed.  The Alaska Public Offices Commission posted the list of Alaskan lobbyists, their clients, and their fee on April 24, 2014.

This list is by the lobbyist, with a list of their clients and their fee for each client.  They vary, some are 'annual fee', some 'hourly fee', some 'monthly fee.'

Check out how much different organizations are paying to get continuous monitoring of legislation and access to legislators.  And consider how much you are paying for this kind of service.

I really haven't had much time to look at this list carefully, but, for example,  I'd note that GCI pays:

• Ashley Reed $50,000 a year
  "All legislation, and administrative activities,
  regarding or impacting phone and
  telecommunications services"
• Reed Stoops $40,000 a year for
  
  "All telecommunications issues relating to GCIs
  internet, cable, telephone, wireless and TV
  business in Alaska."
• Sam Kito Jr. $40,000 a year for
  
  "All things regarding telecommunication issues
  and broadcasting issues"
• Eldon Mulder $40,000 a year
  
  "All issues pertaining to information
  technology, broadband and
  telecommunications."

Be careful.  This is probably more complicated than just looking at the list.  Anyone who has insights to things or people on the list, please leave them in the comments.   Below is a scribd version, but you can go to the APOC website and download it yourself here.

Alaska Lobbyist Directory 4-24-2014

Anchorage Summer Begins When . . .

the birch leaves open. 

That's my calculation anyway.  Our backyard thermometer says 75˚F  (23˚C).  It's been too nice to stay inside and try to write something serious.  These are the birch leaves in front of our house.  I don't remember them ever being this early. 

So I've been in the yard doing work that doesn't yet feel like work. 

LVN IT - License Plate Ambiguity

So, it says ALASKA on top.  We were guessing what the bottom meant:

Loving It?

Living It?

Leaving It?

The Terns Have Returned

The Arctic Tern is one of my favorite Alaska birds.  It's sleek, it can hover (as in this photo) and it travels all the way to the Antarctic for our winter.  And they move so fast that I've never been able to get a decent picture.  But the new camera is changing things.  The pictures will get better. 

Most of the birds haven't arrived yet.  It's still only April.  Mostly there were gulls - like these mew gulls. 

Another mew gull making lots of noise. 

Red necked grebe.


You'll have to make do with bird pictures.  I really didn't want to write about basketball owners, or sexual harassment in the Alaska National Guard.  It was such a beautiful day, and now, at almost 10 pm, it's still quite light out. (I just checked.  Sunset is at 9:59pm today.)

Cloud Show

 

The clouds were putting on a show this afternoon when I went out for an errand.  A nice thing about traveling by bike, there's nothing between you and the sky and you can stop easily to take it all in.  Despite being almost 60˚F (16˚C), there was a cooling, more-than-light breeze and the clouds were moving and reshaping.

The cumulus was up against this other clouds with streaks going up and to the left.  Looked on Wikipedia's cloud page which has been helpful in the past, but couldn't figure out the cloud on the left.

This cloud was hanging over 36th and stretched way out toward the Chugach mountains.


And I passed by where Nino's Italian Eatery used to be.  It looks like the Department of Transportation, which bought the building two years ago,  has removed the building completely now.  Eventually they plan to reconfigure the turn from New Seward from south to west on 36th in this spot.

You can see how fast those clouds were moving.  This picture looks east toward New Seward and 36th.  The sky is mostly blue and it wasn't more than three or four minutes later that I took the other pictures from 36th on the other side of New Seward. 

Get Your Bikes Out - Trails Are Clearing

Last week on the Campbell Creek trail east of Lake Otis (south of Tudor) the trail was mostly snow and ice, but today it was clear all the way to Elmore.  I'd show you pictures, but my camera was free of its sound card.  There are even buds starting on a birch tree in front of the house.  People who used last year's cold May - it snowed the 21st - as evidence that global warming wasn't happening, have this year to remind the there's a difference between weather and climate and there can be annual variations.  But overall things are getting warmer each year and I've got some sweet pea seeds I'm soaking overnight to plant outside tomorrow.  (When we got to Anchorage in 1977, the rule of thumb was not to plant anything outside before June 1.)

I don't know how Chester Creek trail is doing;  anyone try that out this weekend?

Where Are The Most Diverse US Census Tracts? - Chad Farrel at Press Club

Anchorage Press Club conference - Saturday morning panel that I attended. [Paraphrasing what he said quickly, read with caution.]

Starting with Sarah Palin's 2008 comment that Alaska is a microcosm of America which got a lot of flack, including Frank Rich.  Farrel showed up in Alaska to teach sociology and has found that, in fact, the US Census Bureau's 'broad, admittedly crude' categories of ethnicity, that Palin was actually accurate on this one.

• White
• Black/African American
• Latino/HispanicAsian and Pacific Islander
• Alaska Native/American Indian
• Biracial/Multiracial

These broad categories miss a lot of the diversity that exists in each category.

Also show the socially constructed nature of race, why I use "Ethno-racial" diversity.

Formula - you could do this analysis with income, age, occupational diversity etc.  Not
just racial.

Get statistics that are intuitive to normal folks.  You get:

1.  Number of groups present in an area
2.  Size relative to one another

Imagine three neighborhoods.
1.  All white (not many left in US)  - no ethno-racial diversity
2.  Mixed, but 99% white - still more diverse than #1
3.  Mixed, all equal sized - high level of diversity

This index takes this factors into account - from 0 - 100.

0 =  just one group
100 = all six groups the same size

And inbetween, lots of variation.

How diverse is Alaska compared to rest of US?


Frank Rich was right in terms of Blacks and Hispanics, but he left out our Native population and bi-racial, multi-racial identity.

Alaska is 5th behind Hawaii, California, Nevada, and New York.  73 72 69 66.3  66.1

Multiple pathways to scoring high.   Where does Alaska rank?

photo

Compared to US as a whole, Alaska ranks a little higher.  Big surge after 1990 - first year Census allowed people to check more than one box.  Resulted in the surge.


Moving to Anchorage

San Francisco (#2 - 77) more diverse than Anchorage. (#30 - 64)

Anchorage (#30) more diverse than Seattle (#43)

Q:  What about military?
A:  Plays a big role.  Military the most diverse social institutions in the country.

More diverse than most Western cities and US.  Gap is widening in 2010 Census from 2000. 

Moving into diversity within the groups.

American Community Survey - Census data collected between the decennial years.  Doesn't count everyone, but one question allows person to identify 'ancestry or ethnic origin' with examples.

Farrel too all the groups with more than 1000 for Anchorage - pooled from five year chunk, bigger sample size.   image

Some people put down "American."  Discussions in my class whether American can be an ethnic group.  (Largest proportion of Americans in Southern states.)

Q:  Yupik didn't hit 1000?
A:  No, but a lot of people didn't fill out the question.

Q:  Did this include Matsu?
A:  Not this one, but the previous data did, which brings the diversity down.

Q:  Sense that Yupik population equals the Athabascan?
A:  Can't really speculate.  Will say ethnic identity is fluid.

Linguistic Diversisty
Anchorage School District 95 different langauges spoken at home.


UAA - lots of student diversity

Why is Anchorage so diverse?  Characteristics of diverse metropolitan areas.  (Not necessarily causes, housing could be consequence.)

Coastal/Border state  √
Large population
Renter households  √
Military presence  √
Immigrant gateway
Immigrant outpost  √
Youthful population  √

Click to enlarge

Guiding Questions:

Neighborhoods - census tracts (not necessarily neighborhoods - about 4000 population)
Use census tracts as a proxy.  Track 11    - cluster of Mountain View, 6, 9.01 (merril field) and 8.01  (Wonder Park).

Three most diverse tracts in US.  The one thing that makes them diverse in Anchorage is the Native population.

Further down the list - most tracts in Anchorage have higher than US average diversity.

High Schools

Parent asked if East High was, based on the tracts diversity, the most diverse high schools.
18,000 public high schools - East, Bartlett, West high schools most diverse in US.
Anchorage high schools more than double diversity of average high school.

Q:  Why higher diversity in high schools than tracts?
A:  1.  immigrants tend to be younger and of child bearing age.

Q:  Schools more diverse because of less residential segregation?
A:  There is segregation, but less than other metro areas in US.  Did study on exposure to diversity by whites and Anchorage is higher.

Next steps:

1.  What are the consequences of diversity?  Can't get at that just with the numbers.  But intergroup contact theory covers this.  Lots of lit.  Exposure to diversity tends to increase tolerance for out groups.  Reduces reliance of stereotypes and prejudice.  Can see individual variations which undermines stereotypes.
2.  How do residents experience and negotiate diversity in their daily lives?   # 1 works if social-economic groups, in the same school class.  Integrated or diverse group working toward the same goal.  Benefit of contact.

But, if inequality layered on top of diversity?  Groups competing for scarce resources - who gets the soccer field at the park?

I've given top down view, but we experience diversity on the ground, and that's where the media comes in.  Journalists have a unique skill set to dig up these stories and how we're negotiating diversity in our daily lives.  We're at the forefront of that trend in the US (increasing diversity).  How we negotiate that trend has implications for the rest of the US. 

DATA, DATA, DATA - Finding and Using and Giving Meaning to Data Available Online from Chrys Wu

 Rough notes, as she said it.  Take this with a big grain of salt.  But there's lots of good info and links in here for using data that's out there. (This was a really good, content rich session.)

Chrys Wu - What to think about when you're thinking about DATA

About me:  

DataKind - using data to advance the public good.  In New York, but you can volunteer around the world.

Altered Oceans - project won the Pulitzer Prize (Note:  I didn't win the prize, just worked on it.)

About You:

Work for NYTimes, Developer Advocate
but lots of other roles before in different organizations.

Election Map, Interactive graphics, technology group - about 300 people considered developers, make it possible for people coming to the website or thru mobile phone.

I'm a little bit of glue and little bit of grease.  Help others get their work done.

My role to solve problems and help people.

Collecting Data
People should know what data is out there.  Where get it.
I work with National pubs, for regional, wait til !&A

Govt. agencies - FRED -  Make friend your friend - terrific trove of economic data
GeoFred - maps
AlFred - archive of economic data -- code for 0380 for Alaska  will pinpoint Alaska
Get exel add-in

US Census Data - PUMS - public use microdata and IPUMS

Gives a lot of insight into what's happening in Alaska.  PUMS what feds are supplying, a sample pad, understand trends in household.
IPUMS - U of Minn. -






National Conference of STate Legislatures - tracks legislation


NGOS

World Bank - lots of data, particularly on poverty, also good tumblr account


The Internet Archive - SF, Friday around noon - they serve a free lunch and talk about the Internet Archive

Collect tv advertising campaigns, old newspapers, etc. 


Draw from your own well∫

Set up your own data base, 

Cleaning Data

Tabula - how to use - cracks pdfs.

School of Data -

Open/Refine (now googleRefine) can deal with >1 million records
Tutorials for Open/Refine - Github

David Huynh Full Tutorial (2009- still relevant)

Gotchas -
typos,
disambiguation (making sure these john smiths are the same or not, which Manhattan, etc)

Excel limits - watch for files with exactly
1,048,576
65,536
32,000
means they ran out because they exceeded the limits - more data, have to go back and get it.  Get on phone and talk to people.


QUESTIONS
Q:  How do you clean it, who is smarter?
A:  Call them and discuss it - they like to be alerted.  Pro-publica, data store
they've chosen not to charge for cleaned data from FOIA searches.

Q:  Have you used Gap Minder?  Plug data in and create a movable graphic.
A:  One shortcoming - doesn't allow you to do annotations  - Hans Rosling -

Q:  How village people in Anchorage maintain connections to villages through food - getting village food to urban areas - how might you approach that from a data perspective? Fish and Game doesn't break things out by indigineous groups and non-
A:  Find other overlapping data - can you use place? 

Q:  How do you vet sites?
A:  Generally look at the organizations collecting the data.  Talk directly to the source of first level collection - NGO's, Govt, even campaign reporting.  Pols have to report to agencies.  Even Pro-publica, need to check it out.  The Sunlight Foundation - they're trustworthy - take govt data and make it more usable.
Who entity is, what they're collecting, and the methodology.  Watch out for orgs that take data from different sources and try to mesh it.

Q:  Good tools or sites for government contracts?
A:  USA Spending.gov (from audience)

Q:  Who reviews - like peer review - your stuff?
A:  Times - trust our reporters.  Editors job to check and challenge the reporter.  For those who 'are' the newsroom, constantly check yourself.  I talked to a lot of experts, friends in academia and check with them.

Two ways to look for numbers:

1.  Look for outliers - what's this weird thing?
2.  Look for the numbers that don't change while everything else is changing?  Journalists trained to look for the movement, but maybe the thing that doesn't change is the real story.
3.  Comparisons - how it looks compared to other states?

Amanda Cox  - statistician for NYTimes, worked at Bureau of Labor Statistics - has a fan club of colleagues who love her.  She's spectacular.  Thinks creatively.

Q:  Find what others have done?
A:  IRE - Investigative Reporters and Editors - search  - they will come and train you free.

Q:  Work at museum and we have a big archive we'd like to share.
A:  Digital?  Look at models:
NY Public Library David Reardon
Google
British Library Photostream


Quartz

Lots of Journalists - Notes from the Alaska Press Club

I'm at the Alaska Press Club conference today.  Here are some session notes.  The first two sessions I really didn't get my computer out.  Consider this a sampling - just to give a sense of what's going on, but I won't get too much in depth.  I might be able to explore some of the larger issues that arise after the conference is over. 

Long-term Narratives

Gannaway

Preston Gannaway - Pulitzer Prize winner

It's hard to talk about this presentation - she's showing photos and talking about her approach.  She's showing a set of pictures about a woman who has terminal liver cancer - she documented their life living with this cancer.








Writing About Sexuality

Benoit Denizet-Lewis

Benoit Denizet-Lewis - New York times - Pulitzer Prize winner

I got into this one toward the end.  He was talking about using chatrooms to make connections with subgroups - he was writing about DL (down-low) gay men in one story. 
And young gays in school in another story.  Also on the complication of many of these issues and the difficulty of covering the issues well. 




Comprehensive Election Coverage   This one I took more notes, but there are also big gaps. 

Sonari Glinton, Jason DeRose, Ed Schoenfeld
Armen Keteyian seems to have gotten on the wrong plane and ended up in Canada

Experience you had working on elections
Sonari - Iowa, going to have rountable of typical Iowa voters.  Women said, I'm worried that Iowa will become a Sharia state.  I'm not real involved in issues, but this one just hit me.  Look, I'm a black man from Chicago and we're not going to talk about Obama being a Muslim.  Once I had been upfront about who I was, it seemed to give the others the freedom to be themselves and to be open.  Developed a really great relationship with them and we still are in contact.

DeRose:  Did you find that when you called her on the Sharia thing, I've heard people say that, did she really believe that or just repeating what she heard.

Glinton:  She was worried that Iowa would change, beyond recognition.  Probably not Sharia law.

DeRose:  As an editor I'm on the road that much.  In Colorado, people thought it was a swing state, at least how it was reported.  About ten days before the election.  Was in the 'swing' county - spent about 45 minutes driving around downtown.  About 3-1 ratio of Obama to Romney signs.  I couldn't find Romney stuff.  Thought, if this is the swingiest county, I don't think Colorado is a swing state.  I think people push the idea - it helps turnout.  They probably knew Obama would take Colorado.  In retrospect, it was never a swing state.  There was no ground game for the Romney side.  You need to do ground level work.  Just driving up and down the downtown streets you can get a sense. 

Glinton - I saw a similar thing in Ohio - that Obama folks were 3-1 on the ground compared to Romney.

DeRose:  Wonder whether national news orgs play up the tightness of the race to keep their audience following it.   We had great ratings because the Obama-Clinton primary race was so close.  Through the roof ratings.  And that might lead other news orgs to play that up when they aren't close.

Schoenfeld, Jason DeRose, Sonari Glinton

Glinton - I feel like polls work.  I've never been to an election where we had people at the wrong spot.  

Schoenfeld:  Fair v Balance - covering a local election, Mayor, School Board, and you know, some of the candidates have no chance of winning.  One person has it together and the other just jumped into the race and isn't prepared.  How do you deal with that, when you know one isn't a serious candidate?

Glinton:  Guy in Illinois always run - genuine nut - but gets 7 or 8%.  Doesn't get invited to the debates.  If 2 candidates, to a reasonable extent you need to cover people that have some chance.  Guy at 35% might have some chance.  Just because no Republican mayor in Chicago since 1939, you still have to recover the Republican.  Barry Goldwater had no chance of winning, but shaped 50 years of politics.  Ross Perot, Ralph Nader, their ideas had a lot of sway on the election.

DeRose:  If his one issue resonates with the 5% and might make the difference if the others are both at 45%.  Journalists are constantly making decisions on what is important and not important.  We're supposed to use our good judgment.  Is this person an idiot?  Then don't put him on the air.  Something in the culture says unless we make it 50%/50% bad, we aren't just shoveling unedited press releases.  It's ok to say that 8 people are on the ballot, but only two are viable.  I'll mention them all, but only do detailed reports on the two key ones.  We aren't just "he says, she says" reporters.  We need to use our as objective as possible judgment to clarify things, use analysis.

You can describe someone's strange affiliation and even if you don't want to say it yourself, you can find someone who will say what you'd like to say.

Using your own judgment is the hard way.  50%/50% balanced is the easy way out.

Q:  Told by my general manager not to bring up personal life.

DeRose:  Part of your job is to bring up those associations.  Ask in the interview.  Extremely pertinent.

Glinton:  Working with Ira Glass on a story, real awakening question from him:  "Oh, I see, you want those people to like/respect you."  You can't be a journalist if you want people to like you.  But, when people see you have integrity, people will respect you.  Oh, people like you because you stab them in the gut.

DeRose:  I covered religion in Chicago and was raised by a particular denomination and I thought the press person would feel comfortable.  Much later he said we were scared shitless because you knew where the bodies were buried.
I don't go to a citizen surgeon to remove my gall-bladder, and I don't go to a citizen-journalist to get my news.

Glinton:  They layoff journalists, but not PR people.
DeRose:  And the journalists who get laid off become PR people and get paid ten times as much.  And then they know how we work and how to counter what we do working for a firm or a politician.

Q:  Some tips?  Never covered elections, not really interested, are there things I need to cover?

Glinton:  Three books:  Boss by Royko,  ?? at Tammany Hall,  Give an idea of political theory and how politics are thinking and about local politics.

DeRose:   and Political Fiction by Joan Didion,  ???  Reporting on her experience of reporting as well as on the race.  It was so not what she was expecting it to be.
Key biographies:

Glinton:  In Iowa I wasn't covering candidates, I was covering issues.
DeRose;  Before candidates start talking, ask people what the issues are.  Go to Chamber of Commerce, PTA, say ten groups, and find out what the issues are.

Schoenfeld:  Moving to other issues.  National organizations besides political parties, like the Koch Brothers, who generate legislation, come up with issues to target a particular demographic and target a candidate.  I see legislation each year that I know came from this or that particular group.  How to monitor this?