The Role of Climate Change In The Syrian Revolution

[The Syria connection is toward the end.  But I urge you to read my synopsis of the talk because Paul Beckwith really helped me better understand  the dynamics of how the warming works and how it causes massive flooding in some places and droughts in other places. And that background helps add credibility to his comments on Syria]

At today's Citizens Climate Lobby meeting, the national speaker we heard via phone, was University of Ottawa climatologist Paul Beckwith who spoke about how the melting in the Arctic affects the rest of the planet.  [You can hear the whole talk here - it begins a few minutes into the meeting.]   The gist was:

The temperature difference between the poles and the equator results in global wind patterns that greatly affect weather. 

Hot air rises, creating a low pressure area.   The temperature difference creates a pressure difference between the poles and the equator and that pressure difference causes air to move from high pressure areas to low pressure areas near the surface of the earth. 

Because the earth is rotating, the air doesn't move in a straight line. Curves to the right in the northern hemisphere and the opposite in the southern hemisphere.  This curvature to the right generates the jet streams, which are high altitude winds which circle the earth - sort of a boundary between the upper and lower atmospheres - so these winds typically move from west to east and there will be some waviness, but what is happening now. 

Warming Faster at the Poles Lowering Temperature Differences World Wide
With the elevated greenhouse gases in the atmosphere there is more absorption of the heat that is leaving the earth so it's trapping that heat and causing an overall warming.  In the Arctic the white of the sea ice and snow on land reflect the heat.  But as the ice and snow melt, the poles absorbs more heat causing the Arctic to warm.  North of 66˚ the rate of warming is 2-3X the rest of the planet.  As you move north, the increase is magnified more - 4, 5, even 6 times.

Because the Arctic system is warming faster than the rest of the planet, it's lowering that temperature difference.  So there is less of a pressure difference and less need for the air to move northward.  This slows down the jet streams. 

As they slow down the land ocean temperature difference increases and the jet streams get much wavier as they slow down and they tend to get locked into position relative to where the oceans and continents are.

Important because jet streams guide weather and storms.  And because overall temperatures are warmer, there's more evaporation from the oceans and more water vapor in the atmosphere. 

More Moisture and More Energy and Slower Air Movement = Bigger Storms Here and Drought There
For every degree Celsius increase in temperature there's 7% more water in the atmosphere.  It rises, cools, condenses, and forms clouds.  When it forms clouds, it releases energy.  So more water vapor and more energy in the atmosphere means more intense storms.  And the storms are moving slower, so if you have a massive storm system carrying  huge amounts of water, it's not moving as quickly as it used to move.  That's why certain areas get massive torrential downpours.  In Canada this summer this led to flooding in Banff and Calgary - a $3 billion event -  and a month later the same thing happened in Toronto.   They had 3 inches in an hour, 5 inches in an evening.  Those cities don't have infrastructure that can handle that.  Manila recently had 2 feet in a day or two.  While they are used to monsoons, normally it would be 1 foot in a week or two.

At the same time, these storm systems depositing large amounts of water on specific regions means that water is not traveling to other regions where it used to go.  They are getting less than normal rainfall because storms are sticking and not traveling as far and as fast.

The Syria Connection

Then he added the kicker.   In answering a question about how to respond to those who claim climate change is natural, he talked about how the strange weather patterns today are far more frequent and intense than in the past. 

He was talking about how these climate changes are causing social disruptions.  And he used Syria as an example.  What hasn't been mentioned much is that Syria's been having a five year drought that has devastated farming.  He said that of 8 million farmers, 3 million fell into poverty.  A large number of these farmers moved to the cities and were unemployed.  While he didn't claim this was the cause of Syrians joining the Arab spring, it certainly may well have been the tipping point. 

Since I had missed this point about Syria, I looked it up.  Here are things others are saying about this.  I've just taken a bit.  You can see much more at each link.



 From The Bulletin (Aug 2012):

"Among the many historical, political, and economic factors contributing to the Syrian uprising, one has been devastating to Syria, yet remains largely unnoticed by the outside world. That factor is the complex and subtle, yet powerful role that climate change has played in affecting the stability and longevity of the state.  .   .

From 1900 until 2005, there were six droughts of significance in Syria; the average monthly level of winter precipitation during these dry periods was approximately one-third of normal. All but one of these droughts lasted only one season; the exception lasted two. Farming communities were thus able to withstand dry periods by falling back on government subsidies and secondary water resources. This most recent, the seventh drought, however, lasted from 2006 to 2010, an astounding four seasons -- a true anomaly in the past century. Furthermore, the average level of precipitation in these four years was the lowest of any drought-ridden period in the last century. .  .

It is estimated that the Syrian drought has displaced more than 1.5 million people; entire families of agricultural workers and small-scale farmers moved from the country's breadbasket region in the northeast to urban peripheries of the south. The drought tipped the scale of an unbalanced agricultural system that was already feeling the weight of policy mismanagement and unsustainable environmental practices. Further, lack of contingency planning contributed to the inability of the system to cope with the aftermath of the drought. Decades of poorly planned agricultural policies now haunt Syria's al-Assad regime."

From The Climate Desk  (March 2013):

"In Syria, prior to the unrest that eventually exploded into revolution and armed conflict, Syria had experienced an unprecedented drought, lasting about five years. In 2011, NOAA produced a report showing that the Mediterranean littoral and the Middle East had significant drought conditions that were directly related to climate change. And then we found some reporting that had been done over the course of the drought which were showing that in Syria the drought, connected with natural resource mismanagement by the Assad regime, had led to a mass exodus, rural-to-urban migration, as farmers lost their livelihood. The UN estimated that about 800,000 people in Syria during the course of the drought had their livelihoods entirely destroyed. In the run-up to the unrest in Syria, a lot of international security analysts, even on the eve of the exploding unrest, had determined that Syria was generally a stable country, and that it was immune to social unrest and immune to the Arab Spring. It was clear that there were some stresses underneath the surface, and those migrations that we’re talking about, internal migrations, also put pressure on urban areas that were already economically stressed, and that was added on top of refugees that had been coming in from Iraq since the US invasion.

The Atlantic (Sept. 2013):

 Syria has been convulsed by civil war since climate change came to Syria with a vengeance. Drought devastated the country from 2006 to 2011.  Rainfall in most of the country fell below eight inches (20 cm) a year, the absolute minimum needed to sustain un-irrigated farming. Desperate for water, farmers began to tap aquifers with tens of thousands of new well.  But, as they did, the water table quickly dropped to a level below which their pumps could lift it.

Syria has been convulsed by civil war since climate change came to Syria with a vengeance. Drought devastated the country from 2006 to 2011.  Rainfall in most of the country fell below eight inches (20 cm) a year, the absolute minimum needed to sustain un-irrigated farming. Desperate for water, farmers began to tap aquifers with tens of thousands of new well.  But, as they did, the water table quickly dropped to a level below which their pumps could lift it.

The domestic Syrian refugees immediately found that they had to compete not only with one another for scarce food, water and jobs, but also with the already existing foreign refugee population.  Syria already was a refuge for quarter of a million Palestinians and about a hundred thousand people who had fled the war and occupation of Iraq.  Formerly prosperous farmers were lucky to get jobs as hawkers or street sweepers.  And in the desperation of the times, hostilities erupted among groups that were competing just to survive.   .    .

Campbell Creek Bike Trail Under Seward Highway Almost Ready

The target date for completing the bike trail under the Seward Highway is Fall 2013.  The trail is there, but the path hasn't been paved nor has the path otherwise been finished off.  But they have completely new bridges in and we walked by there the other evening.
[UPDATE October 19, 2013 - It semi-officially opened today and is open for riding.]

From the west side you can walk the trail, under the highway bridge.

Here's what this looked like in 2007.]

 

When the State does a project, they tend to obliterate the landscape and then build it back up from scratch.  I'm sure they have good reasons for it.  In this case the bridge has been expanded greatly.  Before there was just a little edge along the path under a bridge you had to duck to get under in spots.  Now the space next to the creek is bigger, it seems, than the creek.  

Here's what this spot looked like in May 2012:

 

And here's going under the bridge the other day:

And near the same spot in 2008.  This was the whole trail then right against the water.  And when the creek was really high, the whole trail was gone.  The heavy equipment is between me and the water above - also the orange fencing is along the water.  And the bridges were shorter and lower.

There are four bridges - (from the east) first the frontage road, then the northbound highway, southbound highway, and the western frontage road.  Here's a little past the first bridge (maybe even the second one.)

And here's what that used to look like:

 

Once you get out from under the highway, instead of the one-bike winding path through the fireweed, there's more bike superhighway up to this bridge which is blocked for now.   At the right times, you can watch the spawning salmon from this bridge.  We're very close to The Wild Berry tourist trap at this point, just west of the Seward Highway (see map below). 

Getting to this bridge used to look like this:

Turning around at this point, it now looks like this:

One more picture of the bridges - now looking east from the west side. 

And here's a map for the area.  I started on the east and went to the west, then turned around and went back where the wooden bridge was blocked off.

When this is done, you'll be able to ride from downtown out to Westchester Lagoon up the Chester Creek trail to Goose Lake and the the University crossing either over or under all streets via tunnels and bridges.  At the university you have to cross a parking lot and a few streets to get to the bridge at Tudor and Bragaw (now Elmore), and then on the Campbell Creek bike trail.  There's a bit of a break in the trail at Lake Otis, but then you get back on a wooded trail that will go under the Seward Highway and then on to just past Victor near Dimond coming out at Dimond High School.  Then there zigging and zagging through neighborhoods to connect to the trail in Kincaid park, and from there you can get back downtown.

The Trails of Anchorage site  says it's 13 miles from Kincaid Chalet to Goose Lake, and I'm guessing it's not much less for the rest of the loop I described.

Here's a link to the Arctic Bicycle Club.

Degrading Goose Lake Skyline

If you think skylines should be buildings and other man made structures rather than mountains, then you'll be pleased with the evolving Goose Lake skyline.  There was a time when a bit of the University of Alaska Anchorage was just barely visible over the treetops.  Then the library addition went in with it's green phallic symbol on top exposed for all to see.  The science building and then the parking garage soon peeked over the treetops.  And this evening as we walked around the lake there was what looked like a factory with smokestacks rising above the trees. [Turns out it is the Science Building, not the sports center.]   The new sports center that required the flattening of acres and acres of forest and now juts up above Providence Drive to block the mountains is the only thing I could imagine the new 'factory' to be. 

Looking west from the bike trail, one could still imagine being out in the wilderness in the middle of town.  I just stood there taking pictures as the duck came closer and closer.

It's early September and one has to think about darkness again. It's a whole new feel being in the woods at twilight. 

Earlier on the walk we came across this huge chunk of soil that had been ripped off the ground felling two trees over a foot in diameter plus a dozen smaller ones.  This could be left over from last fall's ferocious winds that toppled so many trees.

I really do have much more to post, but family matters have been consuming a lot of time.  I have a number of unfinished posts that just need more time to ripen enough to post. 

Sugar Shack Fans, Can You Wait Until Monday?

The burnt shell of the old Sugar Shack coffee stand has been sitting at the corner of Lake Otis and 37th since the vandal caused fire this past May.  

Recently it disappeared and was replaced by a new stand.

Then the signs showed up.

I asked someone working on it today when he thought it would open again.  He said they were aiming for Monday. 

Here's what it looked like in May after the fire. 

"A REAL Job is a Job You Hate" - Calvin and Hobbes Creator Bill Watterson's 1990 Graduation Speech Lives On In Cartoonist Tribute

Cartoonist Gavin Aung Than has taken part of a graduation speech by Calvin and Hobbes' creator Bill Watterson and turned it into a cartoon story on the pressures our society exerts for people to succeed in a very narrowly defined path.  Go check it out here.

I've excerpted a couple sections to tempt you to read the whole thing.

Staying at home and taking care of the kids (for a man) is not part of the American way, but it can be worth it to find your own path. (A new study says that when wives earn more than their husbands, the men's self-esteem goes down.  This goes back to society's expectations making it hard for a man to stay home.)

Aung Than's post also tells the story of Watterson's life. 


Of course, I needed to find Watterson's speech online to make sure this was all true.  It was at Kenyon College, May 20, 1990 - ten years after Watterson had graduated from Kenyon.  You can see the whole speech here.  It's a very Calvin and Hobbes kind of speech. 

His basic theme is that people should try to find a way to live their lives that's consistent with their values and their driving interests.  Teaching grad students a subject I felt passionate about gave me lots of space to pursue my natural interests within a traditional work setting.  Because I was doing things that interested me and challenged me, I worked much harder than any boss could have gotten me to work, which is consistent with what Watterson said in 1990. 

It's surprising how hard we'll work when the work is done just for ourselves. And with all due respect to John Stuart Mill, maybe utilitarianism is overrated. If I've learned one thing from being a cartoonist, it's how important playing is to creativity and happiness. My job is essentially to come up with 365 ideas a year.

And what made my job constantly interesting (and writing this blog fun rather than work) was having the space to explore and experiment, and, in Watterson's words, to play.

"If you ever want to find out just how uninteresting you really are, get a job where the quality and frequency of your thoughts determine your livelihood. I've found that the only way I can keep writing every day, year after year, is to let my mind wander into new territories. To do that, I've had to cultivate a kind of mental playfulness.

By Watterson's definition I didn't have a real job.  

A REAL job is a job you hate. I designed car ads and grocery ads in the windowless basement of a convenience store, and I hated every single minute of the 4-1/2 million minutes I worked there. My fellow prisoners at work were basically concerned about how to punch the time clock at the perfect second where they would earn another 20 cents without doing any work for it.

Finding an organization that allows you that freedom is getting tougher and tougher these days.  Applying the business model to teaching and research is all wrong.  The market demands for productivity and - in the university setting - "treating students like customers" is making Universities into heartless corporate entities, that are focused on quantifiable output measures which tend not to include humanity, decency, kindness, joy, personal growth, or discovery.   Students should be treated with respect, but the teacher/student relationship is not the same as the corporate/customer relationship.  

Some hi-tech firms understand that the innovation they need can't be mandated.  It has to be nurtured.  Employees have to be allowed to pursue their passion. And they work best when their passions and their jobs overlap significantly. But even in great situations there are always supervisors who confuse their legitimate authority with the illegitimate power to work out their personal issues on their employees.  I don't think the perfect job lasts too long.  Things and people change. 

The factors needed for play -Creativity and constantly looking at the world from different perspectives - is subversive to many. 

We're not really taught how to recreate constructively. We need to do more than find diversions; we need to restore and expand ourselves. Our idea of relaxing is all too often to plop down in front of the television set and let its pandering idiocy liquefy our brains. Shutting off the thought process is not rejuvenating; the mind is like a car battery-it recharges by running.

Watterson didn't sugar coat his message to the Class of 1990.

You may be surprised to find how quickly daily routine and the demands of "just getting by" absorb your waking hours. You may be surprised matters of habit rather than thought and inquiry. [sic] You may be surprised to find how quickly you start to see your life in terms of other people's expectations rather than issues. You may be surprised to find out how quickly reading a good book sounds like a luxury.

 Again:  the full graduate speech is here.  (I think I'm linking to the real speech, but always be skeptical.)
The cartoon tribute by Aung Than is here.


[Writing titles for these posts can be tricky.  I want them accurate and I recognize that catchy titles get more readers.  I work hard to make sure my title is consistent with what's in the post.  In this case one could argue it's a little misleading.  The phrase "A REAL job is a job you hate" comes from Watterson's graduation speech and wasn't in the tribute.  It's probably not a big deal, but I wanted to acknowledge it for those who might have been bothered by it.  Sorry.  (After I wrote this I changed the title.  It was "A REAL job is a job you hate - Tribute to Calvin and Hobbes Creator Bill Watterson.  It's still not perfect and I'll leave this note for those who care about this stuff.]

70 Years Ago, Jehovah's Witness Case Set Precedent To Overturn Prop 8

In 1935 Billy Gobitis and his sister, both Jehovah's Witnesses, refused to pledge allegiance to the flag in school because to do so would violate the second commandment forbidding idol worship.  Despite explaining the reason for his refusal in writing, the school board stood its ground.

"The Gobitis family was physically attacked and their family grocery store was boycotted. This caused great financial strain as the family faced the cost of sending the two children to private school. Their father sued on behalf of the children, saying the district’s policy violated his children’s religious freedom." [from The Bill of Rights Institute]

By 1940 the school pledge was before the Supreme Court which ruled in Minersville School District v. Gobitis   8-1 in favor of the school district.   

From the History Net:

The Court rejected the Witnesses' claim, holding that the secular interests of the school district in fostering patriotism were paramount. In the majority opinion, written during the same month that France fell to the Nazis, Felix Frankfurter wrote: "National unity is the basis of national security." The plaintiffs, said Frankfurter, were free to "fight out the wise use of legislative authority in the forum of public opinion and before legislative assemblies."

As the US was being drawn into World War II, refusing to pledge was seen by many as traitorous and individual Jehovah's witnesses were beaten and their houses of worship were attacked in various parts of the country.  The ACLU (which argued the next case before the Supreme Court) estimated that 1500 people were assaulted in 335 separate incidents. (Also from the History Net link.) Words like assault tend mask the fact that people's heads were smashed, blood spurted, and people were terrorized.  This happened in Kennebunk, Maine (the home of Tom's of Maine) as well as Baltimore and Illinois, among other places.

Ironically,  the History Net points out:

. . . in Nazi Germany, no group was too small to escape the eye of new chancellor Adolf Hitler, who banned the Witnesses after they refused to show their fealty to him with the mandatory "Heil Hitler" raised-arm salute. (Many Witnesses would later perish in his death camps. [emphasis added]

But a mere three years later - in 1943 - the Supreme Court, in West Virginia State Board of Education v. Barnette, reversed itself on the same issue.  Jehovah's Witness school children again refused to pledge allegiance to the flag and sued when they were expelled.  From the ACLU website:

"The Board of Education on January 9, 1942, adopted a resolution... ordering that the salute to the flag become 'a regular part of the program of activities in the public schools,' that all teachers and pupils 'shall be required to participate in the salute honoring the Nation represented by the Flag...
Failure to conform is 'insubordination' dealt with by expulsion. Readmission is denied by statute until compliance. Meanwhile the expelled child is 'unlawfully absent' and may be proceeded against as a delinquent. His parents or guardians are liable to prosecution, and if convicted are subject to fine not exceeding $50 and jail term not exceeding thirty days.

Appellees... brought suit in the United States District Court for themselves and others similarly situated asking its injunction to restrain enforcement of these laws and regulations against Jehovah's Witnesses... The Board of Education moved to dismiss the complaint [which alleged] that the law and regulations are an unconstitutional denial of religious freedom, and of freedom of speech, and are invalid under the 'due process' and 'equal protection' clauses of the Fourteenth Amendment to the Federal Constitution. The cause was submitted on the pleadings to a District Court of three judges. It restrained enforcement as to the plaintiffs and those of that class." 

The Board of Education appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court which affirmed the judgment of the District Court for the Southern District of West Virginia.

This time round, the Court had the history of violent of attacks on Jehovah's Witnesses following the 1940 decision plus the US was now involved in World War II. 

The Court's decision this time was a complete reversal.  From Oyez:

In a 6-to-3 decision, the Court overruled its decision in Minersville School District v. Gobitis and held that compelling public schoolchildren to salute the flag was unconstitutional. The Court found that such a salute was a form of utterance and was a means of communicating ideas. "Compulsory unification of opinion," the Court held, was doomed to failure and was antithetical to First Amendment values. Writing for the majority, Justice Jackson argued that "[i]f there is any fixed star in our constitutional constellation, it is that no official, high or petty, can prescribe what shall be orthodox in politics, nationalism, religion, or other matters of opinion or force citizens to confess by word or act their faith therein."

 And the relationship to Prop. 8?

A key argument for keeping Prop. 8 was that the majority of voters of California had cast ballots in favor of the banning gay marriage.  This was the will of the majority.

From Joel P. Engardio in USA Today:

When Justice [Robert] Jackson [in 1943] got the chance to reverse the 1940 ruling, he tackled the ballot box notion head-on. He wrote that the "very purpose" of the Bill of Rights was to protect some issues from the volatility of politics and "place them beyond the reach of majorities."

"One's right to life, liberty and property, to free speech, a free press, freedom of worship and assembly," Jackson said, "may not be submitted to vote." [emphasis added]

 Engardio goes on to show the link to Prop. 8.

"Fundamental rights," Jackson wrote in 1943 and Judge Walker quoted in 2010, "depend on the outcome of no elections."

Note:  While  reading for this I learned that President Eisenhower,  who signed the law adding 'under God" to the Pledge of Allegiance in 1954, grew up in a Jehovah's Witness household, though he later became a Presbyterian.  Jehovah's Witnesses oppose war and their members do not participate in war.  Eisenhower not only joined the military, he became the Supreme Allied Commander of the Allied Expeditionary Force (SHAEF),  until the end of the war in Europe in May1945. [Wikipedia]

Alaska Wine Guy Coming Soon Next To Sagaya's

Yamato Ya was in this space for years and years and moved out last year across the intersection and so as I walked my bike by the entrance and saw someone inside I was curious what was coming next.  I was too close to the building to see the new sign right above me.  Tom Faughnan came out and explained that the Wine Guy would be opening - if all goes well - some time in September.  He explains it all in the video.

)

The mid-September seems a bit optimistic considering where they are now.

This video is an example of trying to avoid other things I should be doing.  I had pulled back so I could see the sign, but Tom's head was then this tiny blob at the bottom.  So thinking about how to make it more interesting, I thought I might just drop the head from near the sign.  Well, that was kind of dumb until I thought about putting in wine bottle.  It looked much better when I was editing it in iMovie.  I put it up on YouTube, but the result messed up the sound synch with the picture.  Commercial videographers need not fear any competition from me. 

[Youtube video replacing Viddler video 3/11/14]

"The Yeti Of Creative Coding" - Who Is Mr. Doob?

Here's a link to Mr. Doob's own, short answer to this question in 2005.  This is a man you should know about because he's designing and creating your world. 

I first 'met' Mr. Doob when someone got here from Mr. Doob's Google Gravity.  I went to see what it was and discovered a clever, silly, little spoof of the basic Google page that I  then posted about.

Google Gravity Search for Mr. Doob - Click to enlarge and focus

Recently I got someone here who'd googled "Mr. Doob Fire Google." 

Mr. Doob was working for Google?  And they fired him?  Maybe, I thought, I should check on who Mr. Doob is.

It would appear that he is a rather publicity shy coder and designer who's done some pioneering web work.  There's a connection between Arcade Fire and Mr. Doob but I'm not really sure what it all means.  Mr. Doob was the technical director of Arcade Fire's The Wilderness Downtown.  If you haven't participated in that online video, then you should stop now and go there to see why I think Mr. Doob is worth a whole post like this.  The Wilderness Downtown goes way beyond Google Gravity, and is a project Mr. Doob participated in with many others.

Click image to go to The Wilderness Downtown

The Wilderness Downtown

This is a peek at the technology of the future, using technology of today.  Spend about ten minutes and be sure to make your own postcard.


A Webninja interview three years ago tells us that Mr. Doob is from Barcelona.  There's  a lot of tech discussion here which is interesting in the way it's interesting to watch people speaking in a language you don't know.  Instead of listening to the content, you start to pay attention to other things.  He did work for Google a while.  In fact he was working for Google when he did The Wilderness Downtown. 

A 2011 interview at Canonical gets into how he started out.  His brother was a big influence. They discuss many things including the relationship between code and art and why he's a total supporter of open source, 

I just like his attitude on things like this snippet about giving things out free.

Of course, there is always the risk of getting “Angry Birded” — where someone uses your code to retire early without giving anything back to the project — but that’s ok, I want to think that these people give back to society in other ways. Eventually we will be able to bring an idea into life by combining open source projects and call it a day. That would be a pretty efficient way of using human brains.
For some, the concept of giving away your work for free may sound silly, but there are many good side effects when doing that. It speeds up development and steps up global knowledge.

He says things like this that I don't understand but I like the style.

My dream Linux OS would be having Ubuntu’s hardware support, Fedora’s system code (systemd, etc), Gnome Shell desktop experience and Elementary aesthetics. Yum!

Creative JS interview with Mr. Doob.  This is an audio interview.  It's the main part of what sounds like a radio show - creative coding broadcast -  and the interview starts at about ten minutes in.  I found it fascinating listening.  Here's the JS description of this:

There was a special session at FITC Amsterdam last week featuring a live interview between CreativeJS’ own Seb Lee-Delisle and the elusive Ricardo Cabello (aka Mr. doob) . While his work is very well known, interviews or information about Mr. doob himself are pretty rare. In fact, it’s so hard to find anything about him, you might even call him the yeti of creative coding

Mr. Doob's Ball Pool screenshot

Here's a brief written interview with Mr. Doob at RealTime Rendering.


Mr. Doob's website. This will give you the chance to interact with Mr. Doob's experiments.

Mr. Doob's Branching screenshot

Mr. Doob's Winning Solitaire screenshot

Here's the 3JS website with examples of images in 3.JS - (Mr. Doob is, from what I can tell, the man who created 3.JS.)

I don't know how much time Ricardo spends in our world and how much time he's off in his own inventions, but it would be great to have a chat with him while he's visiting the rest of us. 

Court Sets Out Issues And Schedule For Alaska Redistricting Court Challenges

In an order dated 28 August 2013, Superior Court Judge Michael P. McConahy said:

 

I.  Introduction

Overview of what's happened so far in the case, starting with last December's Supreme Court decision (though somehow 2013 instead of 2012 got past the proof readers).

II.  Consolidation

The Riley challenge and the Alaska Democratic Party challenge to the Redistricting Board's July 2013 Redistricting Proclamation Plan shall be consolidated into one case.

III.  Amicus Curiae

All the parties that filed amicus briefs either before the Superior court or the Alaska Supreme Court shall get copies of all orders of the case and are free to file pleadings though they may not initiate motion practice.  [I think that means they can only comment on the issues that have been raised and not raise new ones.]

IV.  Electronic Filing

Details for filing electronically.


[The points above are paraphrased. For Summary of Issues I've copied it as verbatim as my eyes and fingers allowed]

V.  Summary of Issues 

Fairbanks

1. Compactness issues in House Districts 3 and 5 
2. Socio-economic issues due to the split of the University of Alaska-Fairbanks in House Districts 4 and 5
3. Whether the higher deviations from the ideal district population in House Districts 1-5 are justified
4. Compactness and contiguousness issues in Senate District B.
5. Whether higher deviations from the ideal district population in Fairbanks Senate Districts are justified. 

Mat-Su

1. Socio-economic integration issues in House Districts 9 and 12 by combining areas outside the Mat-Su Borough with the Mat-Su Borough  
2. Whether the plan affords proportional representation to voters residing inside and outside the Mat-Su Borough

Kenai

1. Socio-economic integration issues in House District 32 by combining areas outside the Kenai Peninsula Borough with the Kenai Peninsula Borough.
2. Whether the plan affords proportional representation to voters residing inside and outside the Kenai Peninsula Borough.

Rural Alaska Districts

1. Socio-economic integration issues in House Districts  40, 39, 37, and 6. 

Truncation

1. Whether the Board considered improper factors in deciding the truncation of senate terms. 

VI.  Briefing Schedule

• The judge wrote that since legal standards for establishing house and senate districts have already been addressed previously, they won't be repeated now.  
• "Therefore any party that objects to the 2013 proclamation plan as violative of the compactness and contiguity requirements of the Alaska Constitution must file a motion for summary judgment regarding all such concerns within 15 days of the date of the distribution of this order. [Which by my count comes to Sept. 12.] The Board shall have 10 days to file its opposition.  Replies, if any, are due 3 days thereafter. "
• Socio-economic issues "may or may not be able to be decided on the merits" but "any party objecting to the proclamation plan as violative of the socio-economic requirements . . . must file a motion for summary judgment, supported by admissible evidence" in the same time frame.  And it must be in a separate motion.

VII. Scheduling

• "It is the intent of this court to have all issues resolved within 90 days"
• "If testimony is required the court anticipates setting a trial week on short notice"

So, What Does This All Mean? 

Administrative Issues

• The Riley and Democratic Party challenges were consolidated into one case
• Administratively, the judge has outlined the issues to be discussed - most of the issues raised by Riley and the Alaska Democratic Party.  
• However,  the requests to appoint a master to draw the maps  wasn't mentioned.
• Amicus can comment on the issues outlined but not bring up new ones
• The parties have 15 days (Sept. 12 if that's calendar days and not working days) to support their claims.
• The Board has 10 days to respond.
• The Parties have 3 more to respond to the Board.
• 90 days is the target to get everything to be done.  That should fall just before Thanksgiving Day.

Substantive Issues

I've covered the Fairbanks issues in some detail in these two posts:

• Was Fairbanks Gerrymandered:  A Look At the Riley Challenge to Alaska Redistricting Board' 2013 Plan Part 1
• Was Fairbanks Gerrymandered?  The Riley Challenge to the Redistricting Board's 2013 Plan Part 2:  Truncation  

The line  "Socio-economic issues may or may not be able to be decided on the merits" probably means that this is pretty much a judgment call.  Facts play a role, and there are some precedent standards - such as everyone in a borough boundary is considered to be socio-economically integrated" but there is no clear up or down test for this. 

I haven't even looked at Kena, Mat-Su, or the other  rural districts.  I'll try to get something up.
I have covered truncation (second link above) and I'm working on a post comparing the 2000 Board's truncation method and the current board's method.

In the meantime, you can read the Judge's full order below:

Alaska District Court Order On Riley and Democratic Party challenges to Latest Alaska Redistricting Board P...

Also, there is a response from the Board to the two filings (Riley and Alaska Democrats) on the Board's website.  Most of the documents filed on this are also on the Board's website here.

Thanks to  EW.  

Did You Know That Tom's Of Maine Sold To Colgate? In 2006?

At the dentist yesterday, my hygienist commented that Tom's of Maine - the green toothpaste begun in 1970 - was now owned by Colgate.  She'd gotten a sample with a Colgate shipment and that's how she learned this.

When I checked online it turned out Colgate bought Tom's for $100 million!

 Organic Consumer wrote in 2006:

Best known for toothpaste, Tom's of Maine got its start in 1970 by
making a phosphate-free laundry detergent. Over the years, cofounder Tom Chappell, 63, poked fun at major brands like Colgate, saying they put artificial additives in their toothpastes while Tom's of Maine used natural ingredients.
Chappell said he will continue to run the brand from its Kennebunk headquarters. None of the privately held firm's approximately 170 jobs will be lost, he said.  ''We'll be a stand-alone subsidiary," said Chappell. ''And we have a commitment from Colgate that our formulas will not be tampered with.

Tom's of Maine's website paints a public service oriented company image:

"Tom’s of Maine is a leading manufacturer of natural and environmentally–friendly products, including natural toothpaste, alcohol–free mouthwash, natural dental floss, natural deodorant and antiperspirant and natural bar soap. Founded in 1970 in Kennebunk, Maine, the company is inspired by and committed to sustainable business practices as well as supporting people and communities. Each year, Tom’s of Maine gives 10% of its profits back to organizations that support human, healthy and environmental goodness and encourages employees to use 5% (12 days) of employee time to volunteer. Tom’s of Maine products are vegan, Kosher, Halal–certified and all packaging is recyclable through a partnership with upcycling leader TerraCycle or participating municipalities."

Natural Society  sees it differently:

"In fact, Tom’s of Maine isn’t even from Maine, and it’s owned by a well-known corporate giant — Colgate-Palmolive of New York. Purchasing an 84% stake in Tom’s back in 2006 (yes, they have owned Tom’s since 2006!) for 100 million dollars, Colgate-Palmolive’s share of the global toothpaste market has risen to 44%. In the United States alone, Colgate-Palmolive controls 35% of the market. Unfortunately, part of the companies success relies on a patented gingivitis formula which contains a toxic chemical substance called triclosan that reacts with the chlorine in tap water to become chloroform — a deadly chlorinated aromatic.

Shockingly, the result of the reaction is similar to the dioxins found in the compound Agent Orange that was responsible for 400,000 people being killed or maimed, and 500,000 children born with birth defects after being used in Vietnam by the U.S. military as a herbicide. This is the chemical reaction taking place in your mouth when using Colgate’s gingivitis formula. Interestingly enough, Agent Orange was developed by the biotech company responsible for the rampant genetic modification of the world’s food supply — Monsanto.
It gets worse. Triclosan is only one of the hazardous chemicals found in oral care products. One visit to the Tom’s of Maine official website and you will see the invitation to view all of their product ingredients, organized from A to Z. There is even a statement declaring that not only are all ingredients “naturally sourced,” but that they are “sustainable and responsible.” A look at the ingredients list, however, and you will find that Tom’s of Maine was not being very responsible or sustainable with ingredients such as titanium dioxide and zinc chloride added to their products."

There may be problems with Tom's, but Natural Society's post has its own problems.  If Tom's isn't from Maine - their website says they are in Kennebunk, Maine and they get their water from a Maine aquifer - where are they from?  A recent post at Grist says the potatoes for new packaging are from Maine and that Tom's is in Maine.  Greenbiz writes:

The research [to turn potatoes to plastic] is part of a partnership that includes the University of Maine and the Sustainable Bioplastics Council of Maine, which are seeking ways of recapturing local agricultural waste.

Natural Society seems to be doing a little sleight of hand here - in one hand Tom's and in the other hand Colgate.  Tom's isn't from Maine because Colgate is headquartered in New York.  From what I can tell, Colgate has left Tom's to do its own thing.  It may be that Colgate uses Triclosan, but Natural Society hasn't actually said Tom's does and I don't see it listed in the ingredients of my tube.  Nor is it listed on the website for the tube I have.   

Ingredient	Purpose	Source
Sodium monofluorophosphate 0.76% (0.15% w/v fluoride ion)	Decay prevention	Fluorspar (calcium fluoride), an ore
Calcium carbonate	Mild abrasive	Purified calcium from the earth
Water	Consistency	Maine aquifer
Glycerin	Moistener	Vegetable oils
Sodium bicarbonate	pH adjustment	Purified sodium bicarbonate from the earth
Carrageenan	Thickener	Seaweed (Chondrus crispus)
Xylitol	Flavor	Birch trees or corn
Natural Flavor	Flavor	Peppermint (menthe piperita) leaves
Sodium lauryl sulfate	Dispersant	Derived from coconut and/or palm kernel oil

It may also be true that some of the zinc products Natural Society cites from the Tom's website may be in other products, but I don't see them in the toothpastes.

There are also complaints online about dropping the aluminum tubes for plastic tubes, but I suspect the potato based plastic tubes are in response to that.

I found one other webiste that had problems with Tom's of Maine:  The Cornucopia Institue does health research related to small farms.  Their website says:

"The Cornucopia Institute will engage in educational activities supporting the ecological principles and economic wisdom underlying sustainable and organic agriculture. Through research and investigations on agricultural issues, The Cornucopia Institute will provide needed information to consumers, family farmers, and the media."

Their problem is that Tom's uses carrageenan, which is one of the ingredients in my tube and it's listed above.  

There is simply no way around it: dozens of scientific, peer-reviewed studies used food-grade carrageenan and found it caused gastrointestinal inflammation, ulcerations, lesions and even colon cancer in laboratory animals.  Most of these recent studies were funded by grants from the National Institutes of Health.

They cite their March report "Carrageenan: How a “Natural” Food Additive is Making Us Sick."  Carrageenan is made from one kind of seaweed and is used in lots of products as a thickener - soy milk, almond milk, ice cream, canned soups, frozen pizza - and the Center for Science in the Public Interest has put downgraded its rating:

CSPI also downgraded the seaweed extract carrageenan from "safe" to "certain people should avoid." Used as a thickener and stabilizing agent in many dairy products, a World Health Organization committee concluded that it is inadvisable to use carrageenan in liquid formula designed for infants under one year of age. Carrageenan is still used in some varieties of Similac, though not varieties sold in the U.K.

 I'd say that the at this point the food industry is not concerned with carrageenam, but some researchers have found reasons to be concerned.

So, that's what I've learned about Tom's.  I can't blame someone who has worked hard for 40 years for taking $100 million for his company.  It's easy to call someone else a sellout, but not many people would turn down an offer like that.  You can do a lot of good in the world with that much money.  But it's also an example of the shrinking of competition, that basic driver of a good market system.