Friday, June 14, 2013

Anchorage Has More Summer In The Last Week Than All Last Summer

Or so it seems.


11pm returning from the airport Wednesday night after dropping some visitors for their trip back to Singapore.




Midnight  returning from the airport Thursday night after dropping a friend on his way to India. 


This week we've had six days over 70˚F and there are predictions of into the 80s this weekend.  A little warm for my blood.

As we head for the solstice next week, we gain less and less daylight per day - only 1 minute 24 seconds today, according to the ADN weather page.  Sunset at 11:39pm and sunrise at 4:21am. 

Thursday, June 13, 2013

Former Redistricting Board Director Taylor Bickford Is NOT Coming Back To The Board

I posted on June 4 that the Board was going to rehire former Executive Director Taylor Bickford on a part time basis to help with the mapping.  When the Board went on hiatus after the Interim Plan was accepted last May, Taylor was hired as the Director of Alaska Operations with Strategies 360 - a PR firm whose Alaska office also includes former Alaska Public Radio reporter David Shurtleff and former state house member and gubernatorial candidate Ethan Berkowitz.

But Taylor wasn't here working on the mapping, so I contacted him to find out what the story was.  He told me that when he was first contacted by the Board to see if he could come back to assist, that he'd said he now has a full time job, that he could only do part time help, and that Strateiges 360 would have to be his first priority.  They hadn't yet signed off a final agreement and the possibility of conflicts of interest with clients became an issue that could become an issue for both himself and the board.  In the end, he told me, it didn't seem to be worth the potential problems for the small amount of time he'd be able to spend on Board work. 

So, Taylor is not coming back to the Board.  That's a loss for the Board.  Taylor has strong interpersonal skills and always seemed more sensitive to the needs for good communication with the public about what the Board was doing. 

Redistricting Board's GIS Techs Are Designing New Districts


The term "watching paint dry" comes to mind.  I'm just going to show you some photos of what's going on.  Basically, they are working with the Auto Bound Redistricting software to get some districts together.

The two new techs appear to be just trying to make things work, technically, without political consideration.  They seem to just be trying to get districts that meet the parameters - 17,755 people per district, compact, socio-economically integrated (though I'm not sure how they figure that from the data on the computer).

There are long periods of silence and then there's some discussion which is hard to catch on video because of the noise of the fans and coolers.

But here are some pictures so you can see what's happening




Eric working his computer which is projected on the wall behind him.




This is Ray doing the same thing.  He was working on Fairbanks here I believe.




I'll add some video below, but here's a sense of how they are doing things.  From the upper left image, Eric zoomed into the middle image, and then to the lower right image.  For the middle to lower right transition I'm not completely sure why there's a flat line on the bottom - maybe the angle continues, but it just got cut off at the bottom.


On the bottom of the screen are stats for the districts they are looking at. They can change which stats to see.  Here the columns are TAPERSONS (not sure, I think it's total persons); Target (this should be 17,755*, which is the total population divided by 40 districts to make them all equal);  DEV (deviation);  Difference (Actual number - Target);  PctNatWht (I think this is percentage of Native to White population - something needed to make sure the Board has maintained the Native districts to comply with the Voting Rights Act);  PctNatAB (percentage NativeAlaskan??); PctVANW (percentage voting age Native/White); PctVANA(percentage Voting Age Native Alaskan). I'm not 100% sure I got the names right, but enough for you to get a sense of things.

*I asked Eric why the Target column said 17,756 and he said something like, it was an adjustment the computer did and it would have to be reset to 17,555.  

So, each time they make a change in a district - like move a census bloc to a different district - these numbers can change.




These are the controls they have for making changes.



















Every now and then there is some discussion.  The third tech, whose name I haven't gotten yet, switched computers with Eric, so her map is now projected on the screen.  When she moved over, Torgerson asked her some questions, like "why do you have that big thumb sticking out?"  Then he saw that it followed the river, which conforms to the principle of 
"Follow natural and physical geographic boundaries such as major roads, major arterials, rivers, streams and creeks."

At least on the river side, but what about the neighborhood on the other side?  That's one of the problems here - you can only use the census blocs and they may not fall the way that looks best.  

As I'm watching this, it seems more and more obvious that at least the first stabs at the districts should just be done by computer which would be infinitely faster than humans moving census blocs around.  Then people could eyeball the results for those kinds of things human brains can still see better than computers can.

The video is short - I spared you the long waiting for the computer to react to the click of the mouse.  It gives you a sense of what most of today has been like.




Fairbanks, Cordova, Kodiak - Board Working On New Districts

I took a break - it was too hot in here and nothing was happening and I had something else to check up on.  I ran into Board Member Bob Brodie in the hall way who said they were debating whether connecting Kodiak and Cordova would be considered compact or whether it would be better to pair Kodiak with part of Homer.  One would be more socio-economically integrated and the other more compact.  Figuring out how the court would interpret things.

They were talking about connecting Cordova and Fairbanks as I sit here.  But all of this is just playing around for now.   The new techs may know GIS but they seem to have lot of catch-up to do with redistricting. 

Board Attorney Michael White was in the room when I got back here, but he's gone now.  Back to Chair Torgerson and the three techs.

They seem to be getting ready for a lunch break.  They've shut down the projectors and are walking out. 

[I can't get the preview in Blogger to work now, so I can't see what the post will look like before I post it. But this is pretty short and no pictures so it should be ok.]

Overheated Redistricting Board Work Session



Chair Torgerson in yellow shirt

 The door was closed to the meeting room?  Another executive session?  That wasn't on the announcement.  But Mary, the Board's administrative aide tells me it's because the air conditioning in the building isn't working.  The room was really warm last time I was here.









 Big windows with morning sun shining in.  Apparently it could be like this until they finish.  Though some cooler cloudy days should fix it. 








The cooling system

But that means for now they have some sort of standing cooler that makes a lot of noise, so any audio recording will be real difficult in here.  And they aren't saying much anyway. 
The only Board member here is John Torgerson.  (I got here ten minutes late.)  Eric Sandberg, the GIS person from the Department of Natural Resources who was lent to the Board for mapping in the original process.  There are two other people sitting at the table with computers. [I found out they're both GIS folks from the State Department of Natural Resources.] Not even an attorney.  And no one in the cheap seats but me.  [Whoops, 9:35 and someone else has joined me.  Not sure who he is.]


9:20am They’re bringing in two fans. They’re “Holmes” brand.  If I were a conspiracy theorist and I didn’t know how Board member Jim Holm spells his name, I might suspect some sort of questionable contracting.  It’s easy to jump to invalid conclusions.

See what happens when we get a week of sunshine with the temps into the 70s?  We all melt. 




I can't really tell what parts of the state they are working on.  Two of the four computers are on screens. 

A number of people who know that I'm covering the redistricting board have asked why they just don't use some optimization programs to come up with the most viable maps and start from there.  I know that terms like 'socio-economic integration" are hard to define - but people say it can be done, and it would be much more transparent that way (having to clearly define it for the computer) than it is now.  It would still leave the eyeball test at the end.  Here we have two new people to the process working on it with Eric.  Since I missed the beginning I don't know why the other Board members aren't here.  



It even looks like I got some wifi in here for the first time in two years.  Let me check and try to post this.  I have a 10am meeting, so I'm going to have to leave soon anyway. 

9:45 Board member Bob Brodie just walked in, but Chair Torgerson is out of the room. 


Wednesday, June 12, 2013

It's Summer In Anchorage And The Moose Are Calving


I was on my bike when I saw the three moose walking across the empty lot that once was a trailer park.  I barely had time to get my camera out of my pocket and take a quick picture before they disappeared.

It's been blue skies and warm temperatures since we got back to Anchorage last Wednesday night.  I think Anchorage has had more summer weather already than all last summer.  Our indoor-outdoor thermometer says it's 79˚F (26˚C) out on our deck.  That's hot for Anchorage.

Public Notice Problems: Alaska Redistricting Board Is, Isn't, Is Meeting Today

Last Friday the Redistricting Board set a tentative schedule - they emphasized flexibility based on the Board's availability - that had them start having work meetings today, Wednesday, June 12, to draw up the new redistricting plan. 

But I got an email after the meeting from the Redistricting Board's automatic notices that said: 
"The Alaska Redistricting Board today voted unanimously to solicit public input and approve a schedule to work toward the adoption of a new Hickel Plan. 
  
WORK SCHEDULE
During the time period of June 13 to June 20, Board members and staff will hold daily work sessions at the Alaska Redistricting Office (411 W. 4th Avenue, Suite 302, Anchorage, AK 99501). The purpose of the work sessions will be to create draft Hickel Plans for the Board to consider, in accordance with the recent Superior Court directive.   
The Board's web calendar (available at www.akredistricting.org) will be updated no later than June 13 to reflect the schedule of work sessions, Board meetings, public hearings, and submission deadlines outlined above. "
OK, so I thought I should find out what time the meeting would be tomorrow, since there were no times on the email and their website main page says:


"June 7 Meeting Reminder

June 6, 2013
Posted by Redistricting Board Staff
--
The Alaska Redistricting Board will meet via teleconference at 11:00 a.m. on Friday, June 7, 2013. The purpose of the meeting is to receive a report on legal issues and discuss a schedule for future Board work sessions and meetings."

 So I called the Board and found out the meeting had started today at 9:20am.  It was scheduled to begin at 9am but Member Holm had trouble getting there on time from the airport.  They are apparently introducing the GIS people.  I have something else scheduled today so I'm going to miss this. 


Now that I'm checking more thoroughly, the calendar, does show a meeting today starting at 9am. This has not been the way I've followed when the meetings would be over the last few years.  In the past, the main page generally (emphasis on generally) was where I could find the details of the next meetings. 

I think it's pretty clear that the Board is suffering from not having an Executive Director who takes care of all these issues, like keeping the public informed about the meetings and keeping the website current.  They chose not to hire anyone for the position after it became clear their apparently pre-selected candidate proved to be vastly out qualified by another candidate when they were forced to make the candidate's names and resumes public at the last minute by the Anchorage Daily News.

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

"They don’t want a population of citizens capable of critical thinking." George Carlin

“Forget the politicians.  The politicians are put there to give you the idea that you have freedom of choice.  You don’t.  You have no choice.  You have owners.  They own you.  They own everything.  They own all the important land.  They own, and control the corporations.  They’ve long since bought, and paid for the Senate, the Congress, the state houses, the city halls, they got the judges in their back pockets and they own all the big media companies, so they control just about all of the news and information you get to hear.  They got you by the balls.  They spend billions of dollars every year lobbying, Lobbying, to get what they want.

Well, we know what they want.  They want more for themselves and less for everybody else, but I’ll tell you what they don’t want.  They don’t want a population of citizens capable of critical thinking.  They don’t want well informed, well educated people capable of critical thinking.  They don’t want people who are smart enough to sit around a kitchen table and think about how badly they’re getting fucked by a system that threw them overboard 30 fucking’ years ago.  They don’t want that."
The rest of this quote from George Carlin is at this link.

[UPDATE:  Just after I posted this I thought I ought to check to be sure that Carlin actually said this.  This Youtube video is pretty good proof.]




I always seem to have way too many windows open in Firefox.  I go through them regularly and get rid of the ones I don't need any more.  As I did that this morning, I found the above quote.  I have no recollection of opening it or how it got there.  But there it was.  

It's pretty grim and probably a little exaggerated.  I know Alaska legislators and Assembly members who aren't bought and paid for.  Alaska Democrats have been fighting the oil companies, for instance, and just yesterday I got an email directing me to this website that has a counter showing the money being given by the state to the oil companies because of the recent tax cut the governor pushed.


While I may nitpick with Carlin's picture, overall it's a lot more accurate description than say this vision extracted from the Republican platform of 2012:
"Republicans believe in the Great American Dream, with its economics of inclusion, enabling everyone to have a chance to own, invest, build, and prosper. It is the opposite of the policies which, for the last three and a half years, have stifled growth, destroyed jobs, halted investment, created unprecedented uncertainty, and prolonged the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Those policies have placed the federal government in the driver’s seat, rather than relying on energetic and entrepreneurial Americans to rebuild the economy from the ground up. Excessive taxation and regulation impede economic development. Lowering taxes promotes substantial economic growth and reducing regulation encourages business formation and job creation. Knowing that, a Republican President and Congress will jumpstart an economic renewal that creates opportunity, rewards work and saving, and unleashes the productive genius of the American people. Because the GOP is the Great Opportunity Party, this is our pledge to workers without jobs, families without savings, and neighborhoods without hope: together we can get our country back on track, expanding its bounty, renewing its faith, and fulfilling its promise of a better life."
I thought I'd check the Democratic platform as well, thinking it would echo a lot of the Republican American dream.  Most of it is a list of things the Obama administration had done.  I was surprised to see that parts are much closer to Carlin than I expected.  Though much toned down.
"For too long, we've had a financial system that stacked the deck against ordinary Americans. Banks on Wall Street played by different rules than businesses on Main Street and community banks. Without strong enough regulations, families were enticed, and sometimes tricked, into buying homes they couldn't afford. Banks and investors were allowed to package and sell risky mortgages. Huge reckless bets were made with other people's money on the line.

That behavior not only nearly destroyed the financial system, it cost our economy millions of jobs, hurt middle class and poor families, and left taxpayers holding the bill. .  .

Republicans would continue to allow lobbyists too much sway over lawmakers, leading to gridlock in Washington, an outdated regulatory system, and a tax code riddled with loopholes. The President put in place unprecedented ethics reforms and we're fighting for campaign finance reform. We know that millions of Americans are struggling to get by, and their voices shouldn't be drowned out by millions of dollars in secret special-interest lobbying and advertising."

And Libertarians?  They seem to support the rule of corporations that Carlin decries.  Here are some excerpts from their platform:
2.1 Property and Contract
"Property rights are entitled to the same protection as all other human rights. The owners of property have the full right to control, use, dispose of, or in any manner enjoy, their property without interference, until and unless the exercise of their control infringes the valid rights of others. We oppose all controls on wages, prices, rents, profits, production, and interest rates. We advocate the repeal of all laws banning or restricting the advertising of prices, products, or services. We oppose all violations of the right to private property, liberty of contract, and freedom of trade. The right to trade includes the right not to trade — for any reasons whatsoever. Where property, including land, has been taken from its rightful owners by the government or private action in violation of individual rights, we favor restitution to the rightful owners."
2.6 Monopolies and Corporations
We defend the right of individuals to form corporations, cooperatives and other types of companies based on voluntary association. We seek to divest government of all functions that can be provided by non-governmental organizations or private individuals. We oppose government subsidies to business, labor, or any other special interest. Industries should be governed by free markets.

 I don't believe anything is a done deal.  The world is always changing.  An accurate picture of what we're up against is an important first step in figuring out how to fight for a fairer world. 

Monday, June 10, 2013

Shelby County Wants To Be Freed From Section 5 Of The Voting Rights Act - Supreme Court Decision Coming Soon

In Shelby County v  Holder, the Alabama county is asking the US Supreme Court to free it, and all other states affected, from Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) which requires them to get pre-clearance from the Department of Justice  (DOJ) when it does things that affect people's ability to vote.

Alaska is also required to get pre-clearance form DOJ.  The case was heard in the US Supreme Court last February.   People who know more than I expect the decision to be announced sometime this month.

The Alaska Redistricting Board is hoping the decision will overturn Section 5 which requires them to get pre-clearance for any new redistricting plan before it can become adopted.  Indeed, the State of Alaska filed an amicus brief on behalf of Shelby County.  The Board had postponed finishing their plan until after the decision was made.  The Superior Court told them to get moving, but they've dawdled long enough that it's likely the decision will come out before they finalize their plan. 

A previous post has audio of the oral argument at the Supreme Court and a link to the transcripts.


What exactly is Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) all about?

From the DOJ website:  (read this carefully, there will be a quiz)

Section 5 freezes election practices or procedures in certain states until the new procedures have been subjected to review, either after an administrative review by the United States Attorney General, or after a lawsuit before the United States District Court for the District of Columbia. This means that voting changes in covered jurisdictions may not be used until that review has been obtained. [That's the pre-clearance part.]

The requirement was enacted in 1965 as temporary legislation, to expire in five years, and applicable only to certain states. The specially covered jurisdictions were identified in Section 4 by a formula. The first element in the formula was that the state or political subdivision of the state maintained on November 1, 1964, a "test or device," restricting the opportunity to register and vote. The second element of the formula would be satisfied if the Director of the Census determined that less than 50 percent of persons of voting age were registered to vote on November 1, 1964, or that less than 50 percent of persons of voting age voted in the presidential election of November 1964. Application of this formula resulted in the following states becoming, in their entirety, "covered jurisdictions": Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Virginia, In addition, certain political subdivisions (usually counties) in four other states (Arizona, Hawaii, Idaho, and North Carolina were covered. It also provided a procedure to terminate this coverage.
Under Section 5, any change with respect to voting in a covered jurisdiction -- or any political subunit within it -- cannot legally be enforced unless and until the jurisdiction first obtains the requisite determination by the United States District Court for the District of Columbia or makes a submission to the Attorney General. [Pre-clearance] This requires proof that the proposed voting change does not deny or abridge the right to vote on account of race, color, or membership in a language minority group. If the jurisdiction is unable to prove the absence of such discrimination, the District Court denies the requested judgment, or in the case of administrative submissions, the Attorney General objects to the change, and it remains legally unenforceable.


What are the issues in Shelby County v Holder?

(This will be what I got from listening to the oral arguments and some internet research.  I'm not a lawyer.  Nor have I read all the briefs.  So take this for what it's worth.  I'd also note that these issues are intertwined, so there is some overlap.)

First, note that the law was temporary - for five years.  That was back in 1965.  But it's been renewed various times, the last time being 2006 (under Bush) when the Senate approved it 98-0 and the House 390 -33.

1.  One key objection is that the law still uses the 1965 formula.  Shelby County argued that
  • The laws and voting percentages in the formula are ancient history and none of the states still has them in place.  The problem is over.  Section 5 should be retired.
  • The old formula is just a way to keep sticking it to the original covered states and that other states have worse problems.  All the states, or none, should be covered.
The DOJ argued that while the original problematic laws are gone, the jurisdictions covered keep finding "second generation" discriminatory practices that restrict or otherwise make it harder for Blacks and other protected classes to vote.   They argued the original formula is still a good proxy for the states with the biggest problems.

2.  Things have improved since 1965 and there is no longer a need for pre-clearance.  

DOJ points to a study of discrimination that found the problem still serious that was used by Congress to justify renewing the VRA in 2006.

3.  "On face review" or "applied"?

As I understand this distinction, an on face review looks at the formula in general, for all the states covered, and questions whether the formula is still a reasonable one.  An applied test would look at Shelby County and determine if Shelby County is still discriminating.  Shelby County chose to make an on face challenge, which allows it to focus on other jurisdictions rather than on Shelby County.

Justice Sotomayor challenged this approach:
"You're asking us to do something, which is to ignore your record and look at
everybody else's."
Justice Kagan questions this on the grounds that Alabama is number 1 in successful Section 2 suits and number 2 for Section 5 enforcement actions. (p. 5 15-22)


4.   Is Section 2 just as good as Section 5 for dealing with discriminatory practices?
  •  Section 2's reactive remedies (you can file suit after the fact) works well enough making the extraordinary remedy of requiring pre-clearance of any voting law change unnecessary.
The DOJ argued that the deterrent effect was powerful and had made this an extremely effective piece of legislation.  Also, it was argued that while you could sue reactively to last minute changes such as moving polling places, the election would be over before it ever got to court and citizens would have been disenfranchised requiring far more disruptive and costly remedies than pre-clearance.
This was discussed in an article in the National Review.  
"Section 5 bars changes in voting-related policies not only when they have a discriminatory purpose but also when they have a discriminatory “effect.” So, for example, a voter-ID requirement can be blocked even if it is nondiscriminatory in its terms, application, and intent — so long as a federal bureaucrat finds it might be more likely statistically that members of one racial group versus another will not have the needed identification. "
I'm sorry, but this seems to me a blatant attempt to discriminate.  He sees nothing wrong with a discriminatory effect as long as it wasn't intended.  The crux here is that it's extremely difficult to prove intent.  So legislators can make all the discriminatory laws they want, as long as they say it was not their intent and they haven't left any evidence of that intent.  I also don't see the relevance because as I read the Section 2 factors to be considered by a court, effects seem to be included. 

And,  I can't find this argument in the oral arguments.  There's discussion by Shelby County about results versus effects (which isn't clear enough for me to understand).  The NAACP speaking for upholding the VRA as it is, argued:
"What we've seen in Section 2 cases is that the benefits of discrimination vest in incumbents who would not be there, but for the discriminatory plan.  And Congress, and specifically in the House Report, I believe it's page 57, found that Section 2 continues to be an inadequate remedy to address the problem of these successive violations."

5.  Is the problem the original discriminatory voter tests or discrimination?

 There was some discussion about the problem that the VRA was aimed at.  Shelby County argued that the original problems - the ones in the formula such as voting tests - were long gone and thus Section 5 was no longer needed.  The DOJ argued that the problem was discrimination.  Voting tests were an indicator of discrimination, that were gone, but discriminatory practices were regularly created and updated. 

There were a couple of terms that were brought up by Justices Scalia ("racial entitlement") and Roberts and Kennedy ("reverse engineering") that I think are well worth commenting on and I'll try to do that in a future post.  

Although this legislation was approved in 2006 98-0 in the Senate and 390-33 in the House, court observers think there is a good chance the conservatives on the Court will overturn Section 5.  The oral arguments suggest a clear 4-4 split* with Justice Kennedy sounding skeptical of continuing the VRA Section 5, but at least open to change his mind.  And the oral arguments were just a 76 minute window in a case with lots and lots of documents, so we'll just have to wait and see. 

*This, of course, assumes that Justice Thomas will go along with the other conservatives, since he didn't ask any questions. 

It would be ironic because Shelby County and Alabama have a clear record of discrimination.
Shelby County is in Alabama, a state whose record makes clear that voting discrimination persists. During the last reauthorization period, Alabama had 240 discriminatory voting laws blocked by Section 5 or remedied by Section 2, another portion of the VRA that prohibits discriminatory tests or devices and applies nationwide. Today, even though African-Americans constitute more than one-quarter of the population, Alabama has no African-American statewide elected officials. For years, Shelby County relied on at-large districts to minimize black influence. Only after settling a lawsuit brought under the Voting Rights Act did the county agree to institute single-member districts. In 2008, Calera, one of the county’s six municipalities, submitted a redistricting plan that eliminated the town’s sole majority-black district, again in violation of the Voting Rights Act.   [From The Brennan Center.]
Their strategy was to sue, not on the facts of their situation, but by claiming the formula, for all the states and localities affected, was no longer valid. 


"Racial Entitlement" and "Reverse Engineering" were the ways that Antonin Scalia was framing the Voting Rights Act Section 5 that Shelby County was trying to get rid of.


Finally, I said there'd be a quiz and I try to keep my word:

1.  What are the two formulas from the 1965 Voting Rights Act that, if met, require states to get preclearance?
2.  What actions require preclearance?
(Answers above in post.)

Sunday, June 09, 2013

Some Random Shots I Didn't Get To Post - Pelicans, My Sweetie, Glaciers, And Denali

As you can tell from the last post, I'm stalling here.  The weather's much too nice and I'm still letting the redistricting board meeting process in my head.  And I've got tasks to do after being away ten days.  And we had house guests arrive the day after we got home. 

But I do have some pictures to share that didn't fit in anywhere else. 


A pair of pelicans at Lake Merritt in downtown Oakland.  I left my new camera home on the trip - too big and bulky to lug around - so these are all with my trusty pocket sized Powershot.


I had a date in downtown Seattle between flights with my sweetie and her mom.  And no, my wife doesn't mind at all.  Like last time, I almost forgot to take pictures.  We were having much too good a time.  

 
 And this is looking back down at the scene of our tryst as we start back to Anchorage.  I thought about rotating this picture, but there really is no 'right' way up.  This is what I saw.  


While the sun was below the horizon when we left Seattle, it's June, and it was still up in Anchorage three hours later.  Here, we're over Prince William Sound, a couple of glaciers, on our approach to Anchorage.

 
And the mountain was out very clear - even with this camera.  Foraker on the left, Denali on the right, 150 miles to the North.  

And it's been sunny and warm - pushing 70˚F - and the mosquitoes are out in force.