Alaska Redistricting Board: Waiting For The Judge's Decisions

 When my grad students had semester (or longer) papers/projects, there would come a time when many of the students were done.  That is, they didn't want to see the project any longer. They were mentally finished.  I would have to tell them, "Yes, I understand you are done with this, but unfortunately, the project itself is not done yet.  Go ahead a take a couple of days off, but then get back to work."

I'm sort of in that place myself when it comes to the Redistricting Board.  I'm finished.  But the project is not over yet. I do find it fascinating, but the work to sift through everything and try to come up with something meaningful AND easy for others to understand, becomes more and more difficult.   

I've had some notes that I've been writing in response to the recent hearing Thursday, but there are so many pages of documents, that I feel somewhat overwhelmed.  I want to do it right, but my being is protesting.

So, while we're waiting for the judge's decisions - due today - let me make some more specific comments.  Many of my reactions here today, are minor additions to things I've already elaborated on.  So, just some not too organized thoughts as I listened and read.  

I have to say, from the oral hearing, that the Board's attorney, Matt Singer, is a pretty good attorney.  He's put a good spin on a terrible case.  And there may be enough doubt sowed that he could prevail.

Contiguity  

Given what the judge and justices have said on contiguity, I don't think the contiguity argument will win this for the plaintiffs.  As much as I would like the Court to reconsider the absolute, either/or, nature of contiguity, particularly in an urban setting where there are plenty of 'better' ways to make two House Districts contiguous, than through a relatively wild and roadless state park.  

A member of  the constitutional convention wrote that compactness, deviation, socio-economic integration, and contiguity were criteria that helped to prevent gerrymandering. But in a Senate district, there is only one criterion - contiguity.  To accept it as either/or, regardless of there being many other far more practical options, is to take off the only protection these criteria give against gerrymandering.  And in this case, the contiguity between D22 and D9 is a joke.  An example the Board majority was trying to find a way to gerrymander.  

So, the only way I think contiguity might play a factor here is if the judge and the justices see the crazy physical connection drawn between D22 and D9 as a piece of evidence that the map was gerrymandered.  On its own, it won't hold water. 

Gerrymandering

It's clear to anyone objectively viewing this, the Board majority made all the contortions they made, all the violations of common sense and natural order, to squeeze out another Republican Senate seat.  (In addition to the unfortunately uncontested - in court anyway - slicing out of Goldstream from Fairbanks.)  I've discussed how they gerrymandered at various times.  You can look here, for example.  People who conspire to do things that are outlawed, tend not to broadcast that. So it will be up to the judge and justices to weight the Board majority's explanations for their decision against the preponderance of evidence that those are just empty assertions and excuses.  That it was political performance art to ritually satisfy the courts' orders to listen to public testimony and explain why they are deciding to do what went against that testimony.  

"Everybody Is Partisan" Accusing the Other Side of What They Clearly Did

Board's attorney, Matt Singer,  rather than put up a strong factual argument to counter the various charges made, instead starts charging the Board minority with doing what the Board majority clearly did.

Singer argued that pairing JBER with Downtown was the gerrymander. 

"This lawsuit is not about Girdwood at all. It is about attempting to force Eagle River/Chugiak/Eklutna voters into a single senate district and thus submerge the voice of JBER under a majority of Downtown Anchorage voters who strongly favor opposing candidates. This Court should reject the Girdwood Plaintiffs’ redistricting and equal- protection claims. This process is not about giving any particular political party or labor union exactly what it wants, but instead about adopting a constitutional plan and obtaining finality for all Alaskans."

Actually, 1/3 of District 23 live off base and though they are a minority of voters, the voting data I've seen shows that more of the off-base voters show up to vote than the on-base voters.  That's not unexpected.  A number of active-duty military vote in their home states, not in their temporary assignment.  And as Dr. Hensel pointed out in his testimony, local government issues - roads, housing, etc - are  taking care of by the military hierarchy and not through elections.  

And the lack of testimony from people on-base saying they prefer to be with Eagle River/Chugiak demonstrates that these are not issues of interest to them.  It is, in fact, the non-base voters of District 23 who will be swallowed up by Eagle River voters.  Furthermore,  the people who live on base, economically and ethnically, are a closer match to the folks who live in downtown than to the folks who live in Chugiak.  And, they have lots of direct street connections to go from one district to another.  There aren't any from base to Chugiak without going through other districts.

Eagle River And Hillside Voters All Vote Republican Anyway

Singer also argued that HD 22 and HD 9 were politically the same - they voted Republican.  But if you look at the Alaska State legislature, "Republican" is a simplification.  The previous Alaska Senate majority was a coalition of Republicans and Democrats with a minority Republican caucus.  And that is true today of the State House.  There are Republicans who are more comfortable working with Democrats than with their fellow Republicans.  ER tends to elect people who end up in the minority Republican caucuses.  

Contesting District L is Time Barred

That's the assertion that Matt Singer made.  No one contested the Senate pairing of District 24 (Chugiak) and District 23 (JBER/Govt Hill/North Anchorage) after the November 2021 Proclamation Plan in the 30 day time limit, so that is approved by the Board.  

That's a good try, but ignores the facts.  Once the Board was told to detach ER from South Muldoon, the Board had to solve the problem of who to pair HD22 with.  The obvious pairing was to pair ER with ER.  The two house districts are split across neighborhoods.  You can walk across the street from one district to the other.  They are clearly a community of interest.  They are called Chugiak-Eagle River by the people that live there.  

The arguments the Board majority made to lock in Chugiak/JBER pairing were - like most of what they said on this - fact-free assertions of their version of reality - the close ties of the military in both districts,  and the Base kids going to high school in district 24.  (But that turns out to be totally untrue.  ER High School is in District 22, not in District 24.  And if pairing JBER with downtown was as sacrilegious as members Simpson, Binkley, and Marcum kept declaring, then why did the Board create a House district (23) that was 2/3 JBER and 1/3 downtown?  And if the high school assertions they made about base kids going to school in D24 were so relevant, then why did Singer now argue that it's irrelevant where kids go to school?  The fact that  South Anchorage kids don't go to school in ER and vice versa is now evidence against Option 3B. Now we hear that they are all in one school district.  It was fine to argue schools when the Board majority thought it bolstered their argument, but when it doesn't, school attendance is suddenly irrelevant.)

Once District 22 became again a free agent,  District 24 becomes the obvious District for pairing.  Much more obvious than District 9.  In fact, District 9 was already paired with District 10 and by the Board's reasoning, it should be just as off limits to tinkering as was District 24.  

So, actually, the Board majority, by pairing D22 with D9 and NOT even comparing that option to combining D22 with D24, themselves reopened the clock to disputing the Chugiak/JBER-Govt Hill district.    But Singer does a good job of creating an argument that might be given credence by some.  Just as the Board majority created fictions to justify their preference for Option 3B.  

Enough.  There will be lots fo talk about later tonight or perhaps tomorrow morning.  I do recall the Judge's original decision came out late at night or early in the morning.