Thursday, October 29, 2020

Anchorage Is Close To A COVID-19 Cliff

I've been tryin to keep my COVID-19 posts in separate place from my normal blog posts.  But things are getting worse fast, so here's today's update.  We're about to go off into significantly faster spread.  We already have, but it could get even worse.  And hospital beds could get scarce, not only for COVID-19 patients, but for everyone else.  We need some serious isolation but it appears our governor is following Trump's lead.   The table with all the numbers are in the COVID-19 tab just below the orange blog header above.  Here's a direct link.


Thursday, October 29, 2020 - Sit down.  6 new deaths.  That matches the highest death count on Sept 25.  We've had nine deaths in the last three days.  There were 12 new hospitalizations.  With yesterday's 13, that's 25 in two days.  34 in the last three days.

There were 359/349* new resident cases and our current total cases is 14,456.  That total increased by 3600 cases since last Thursday!  It took us 5 months (March-August 8) to get our first 3600 total cases.

There are 7932** active resident cases now in Alaska. Plus 412 non-resident active cases.  

There were about 3700 new tests reported today and our Test Positivity jumped to 8.1.  (We skipped 7 altogether.)   

There are 67 COVID-19 patients in hospitals plus another 22 suspected COVID-19 patients in hospitals.  We're down to 27 available ICU beds.   This is not a good time to have any kind of emergency health problem requiring an ICU in Alaska.  At this rate we're a week or two away from no available ICU beds unless they can set up some new ones.  The overflow hospital set up at the Alaska Center early on is now closed, though I suspect it still could be reopened.  (I have a call into UAA Public Relations office and will update this if I get something more definite.)

The sun just came out.  Take solace in such simple pleasures.  


*I determine new cases by subtracting yesterday's total cases from today's.  The State's dashboard often has numbers that are slightly different because they are constantly updating and correcting (say, moving a report to a different day or from non-resident to resident, etc.).  So I report the daily new resident cases with two numbers:  mine/State's.  

**I should emphasize that these are 'reported' cases.  Active case totals are a bit sketchy because they have to subtract recovered cases and those reports seem to be a lower priority.  If people don't self report the State has to track them down.  So take this number with a grain of salt.  It's a ballpark figure  

11 comments:

  1. Covid doesn't disappear when drumpf ignorers it. Latest body count numbers from today... United States
    Coronavirus Cases:
    9,195,883
    Deaths:
    234,004

    South Dakota's nutjob female guv is gallivanting around the US campaigning for drumpf, fund raising for her re-election and building her brand for a 2024 run for Potus all the while her stAte is a pandemic hotspot with no leadership to speak of.

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  2. Steve what does the governor have to do with Anchorage, the mayor (oh wait we don't have mayor), or the assembly should be doing what's best for the city. Your serious isolation needs to come from the assembly. Why aren't you calling out the people responsible, the assembly?
    oliver

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    1. Let's see. . . "What aboutism" is when someone changes the focus as a way of distracting a criticism by pointing to some other person as being guilty, not the person originally mentioned. Trump does that about everything.
      Are you saying that the governor's behavior is not a problem? Or are you suggesting that in addition to the governor, I should mention the mayor and assembly? What I heard was the first. Or are you suggesting I mentioned the governor because I'm biased against him and more friendly to the Anchorage officials? Basically, my belief is that the governor's behavior has been less responsible that the behavior of the Anchorage officials toward the virus. Anchorage originally shut down well before the governor took his first actions, and that helped us avoid a serious first round.

      Besides, Oliver, Anchorage is part of the State of Alaska, so the governor has a lot to do with Anchorage. But the mayor has no control outside of Anchorage. Much travel in the state goes through Anchorage and most hospital beds are in Anchorage.
      If the governor took the virus threat seriously he would more strongly insist people all over the state (the increased incidence isn't just in Anchorage) wear masks and limit their contact with other people.
      This is especially the case since Anchorage is in the middle of a transition to a new mayor who has a lot to figure out. The current spike has appeared as the transition has been happening.
      Sure, the Assembly could probably also vote for a tighter observance of wearing masks and limiting non-essential public appearances. But the Anchorage mayor and the assembly have been pretty serious about COVID from the beginning, but have been beat up by anti-closure citizens.

      Meanwhile, the governor has backed off from his initial stand supporting Ann Zink's policies and has said only that people have to make their own decisions. And while he has suggested people wear masks, he's not taken his own advice and instead has attended at least one crowded fundraiser, unmasked, . (We know this, oddly, because the former head of the Republican party published the pictures.) His stance has been much more like Trump's which seems to be to just let people get the virus on the assumption that herd immunity will happen. That's a strategy most medical experts say will kill far more people and probably have a worse long term effect on the economy.
      All that said, it's also problematic to try to enforce laws that a small, but significant part of the population refuses to obey. Again, the president, whom the governor supports, has helped to politicize the wearing of masks as though this were a significant burden. It's not, but he's made it into a symbolic issue like forcing Yankee fans to wear Red Socks hats. Because enough people won't wear masks voluntarily, and the governor just shrugs his shoulders and says things like 'I trust the people of Alaska to do the right thing" the virus is spreading at a significant rate and the economy will be hit harder overall. And the hospitals are close to capacity.
      Too many rugged Alaskans just aren't able to make relatively easy adjustments like wearing masks and distancing, so that businesses are being hit much harder than necessary.
      So basically I didn't mention the assembly here because the governor has state wide authority and has been much laxer than the mayor and assembly up to now.

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  3. (Prighar)– Public health officials in O’Brien county are putting out an urgent plea as that county currently has the highest positivity rate in the state of Iowa. As of today (Friday) it stood at 23.4 percent.

    They spelled Primghar wrong. Only known Primghar in the world and they misspelled it.

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    1. There were 38 new covid cases in Obrien, Co yesterday, tops in the state and home for me.

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  4. Is it possible for you to have a dialog with the word Trump? It is exactly what I am saying, it is Anchorage's responsibility to take care of Anchorage. KSKA had a show a few years ago called 400 villages, and they talked to people from each village, is what the governor going to craft 400 different plans? You might have a condo association and a board but at the end of the day its your house.
    So tell us exactly what you want the governor to do, be specific please and why the assembly can't do it. You want to wag your finger at the governor and give the local folks a pass. Maybe if the mayor was as jazzed about keeping his pants on as he is about wearing a mask things might be different.

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    1. Refresh my far away memory, was the mayor accused of infidelity or just sexting?

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    2. As far as we know, it was just sexting. It's possible there was more and that's why he resigned quickly. Or not.

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    3. "Is it possible for you to have a dialog with the word Trump?" Not sure what this means. You want me to say, "These are the good things he's done" and "These are the problems" as though this were a normal presidency and as though he weren't doing at least one thing a day that would have caused any other president to be censured if not impeached? As if he didn't lie more than he tells the truth? Really, he's just praised Texans for hijacking a Biden/Harris bus and forced them to cancel a rally? That's just beyond the pale.
      Assembly versus governor making restrictions? Just telling people to wear masks when in public and staying 6 feet apart and then not violating that himself would be a good start. Like Trump, he's skirting around the advice of his medical experts. Imaging Trump taking over from the NASA scientists because they said they couldn't get vehicle to the moon before election day? That's what's happening with COVID.

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  5. Hey mike, if your spouse did the thing how would you feel?? So the governor telling people to wear masks is some how different than the mayor. As for the bus ' Whataboutism, also known as whataboutery, is a variant of the tu quoque logical fallacy that attempts to discredit an opponent's position by charging them with hypocrisy without directly refuting or disproving their argument. Whataboutism is particularly associated with Soviet and Russian propaganda.

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  6. I thought Oliver's comment was directed at me for using drumpf, which is/was the family name.
    I imagine his missus would be upset, but, I wanted you, Oliver, to keep the story in perspective.

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