Alaska COVID-19 Count March 28 - 17 More Cases For A Total Of 102 [Updated]

First, my updated summary in calendar form so you can see, day by day, the how many cases are being confirmed.  The first confirmed case was reported Friday March 13.  Fifteen days later we have 102 confirmed cases, 6 hospitalized, and 2 dead. (One was an Alaskan who caught the virus and died in Washington State.)

CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH 2020
Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
new/total	hos=hospital		12th  = 0/0	13th = 1/1	14th = 0/1	15th = 0/1
16th = 0/1	17th = 2/3	18th = 3/6	19th = 3/9	20th = 3/12	21st= 2/14	22nd= 8/22
23rd=14/36	24th =6/42 1 hos 1 dead	25th = 17/59 3 hos 1 dead	26th = 10/69 3 hos 1 dead	27th =16/89 5 hos 2 dead	28th = 17/102 6 hos 2 dead

The highest daily increase in confirmed cases was Wednesday March 25, with 17 cases.  [UPDATE: March 28, 2020 8:50pm The three days since the number of new cases was 10, 16, and 13.  Whoops, I messed up, it's 17 more today, not 13.  I'm going through and fixing this.] If you look at the last of the State posted charts (daily tests given) you'll see there was a spike of tests given on March 23.  Did it take two days for many of them to be reported, resulting in the increase on the 25th?  Tests dropped sharply on the 24th, then up slightly on the 25th and more on the 26th, then dropped again.  

I mention this because the number of positive cases may well be related to how many tests were given, but that's speculation.  Graphing the daily tests along with the daily new confirmed cases is a worthy project, but beyond the time I'm ready to commit here.  I see my job here as providing the raw data over time, since the State replaces its page with a new one each day, so people get just the latest snapshot.  And there's enough ambiguity about how long it takes for test results to get reported that any correlation could be messed up by time lags.  

Now, the State's charts for today, Saturday, March 28, 2020.  (You can see the daily updates here.)

Note that the scale of this chart (above) changes from day to day, as the numbers on the left hand axis increase and the number of days increases.

The Municipality of Anchorage (Anchorage and Eagle River/Chugiak) have just over half the state cases, which roughly proportional to its share of the statewide population.

My chart tracking the increases daily.

Alaska Covid-19 Data NewFor... by Steve on Scribd

I decided to try a graph to see what it would add.  It definitely shows the exponential growth of positive cases in Alaska.  When they talk about "flattening the curve" they're talking about keeping this from going up too high by having fewer and fewer new cases each day.  We can do this by not testing or by being strict about self isolation.  (Just to be clear, the first option doesn't actually do any good, it just means we don't have any data to know what's happening.)

The steepness of this curve can be manipulated by widening the columns.  This was the default width in Numbers (Mac's version of Excel).

To see all these posts (and all the State charts since March 12, 2020, click here.

Alaska COVID-19 Case Count 3/27/20 -1 More Dead, 2 More Hospitalize, 16 More Confirmed to 85 Total

[UPDATED March 27, 2020 8:50pm:  The ADN has more details on today's death - a 63 year old woman with underlying health issues - and further restrictions on Alaskans.]


My calendar update on new confirmed cases/cumulative total, plus hospitalizations and deaths based on State posting.  [Note: that link will take you to the latest posting, not necessarily the one with the charts below.  That's what motivated me to make screenshots each day and reformat the information.]

CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH 2020
Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
new/total	hos=hospital		12th  = 0/0	13th = 1/1	14th = 0/1	15th = 0/1
16th = 0/1	17th = 2/3	18th = 3/6	19th = 3/9	20th = 3/12	21st= 2/14	22nd= 8/22
23rd=14/36	24th =6/42 1 hos  1 dead	25th = 17/59 3 hos  1 dead	26th = 10/69 3 hos  1 dead	27th =16/89 5 hos  2 dead

State's Posting Today

If you notice, the first case in the chart was on March 5.  The state didn't post its first confirmed case until March 13.  So that's why the chart says "Date of Onset."  The line about "cases being assigned . . . is still not clear to me.  I'm assuming they mean to a date on the chart.  Does onset mean when patient first exhibited symptoms?  And I'm hazy on the difference between diagnosis and report.  I assume someone could be diagnosed one day and reported to the State another day.  But I'm not sure if that's what they mean.

 Fairbanks has overtaken Ketchikan for second place after Anchorage.  Ketchikan has added 1 case to get to 12 and Fairbanks has added 5 to get to 15.

We now have had 2388 people tested.  But be careful.  The last date on the cumulative graph is 3/25, but the last date on the test by day chart is 3/26.  I understand how easy it is to get things wrong.    One of the kind of things that makes tracking these numbers sketchy.  Take everything with a grain of salt.  That said, let me thank the people who are putting this all together everyday.  Getting all these details right is a daunting task.  Especially with all the other assignments I'm sure the charters have.  I have enough trouble just collecting their data and getting it accurate, so I know how easy it is to not see something that needs a fix.  

But using their total number of people tested and the total number of people confirmed, as I figure this, we have about 3.5% of the people taking the test testing positive.  [Note: one of the deaths was tested and confirmed Outside of Alaska, so his test wouldn't be in our totals (I don't think), but his confirmed status would be.  

We're all presuming that the people tested had symptoms and or traveled somewhere where the virus is widespread.  This the rest of the population that wasn't tested, shouldn't be positive at that same rate.  But that's a big presumption.  Here's what the numbers would look like if the rest of the population tested positive at:

1% = 7300 people positive

.5%= 3650 people positive

.1% =  730 people positive

And many of those folks are circulating and spreading the virus.  So the number of actual positive cases would be growing very quickly every day.  

My Original Chart - I've changed the format here because the State's format changes made it impossible to keep filling in some of the columns accurately.  I think the info on here is the most important - of what the state gives us.  But it also overlaps with the chart on top somewhat, but in a different format.  

Alaska Covid-19 Data NewFor... by Steve on Scribd

Alaska COVID-19 Case Counts For Thursday March 27

Yesterday's State report showed us UP 10 new cases (less than the day before) to a total of 69.

CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH 2020
Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
new/total			12th  = 0/0	13th = 1/1	14th = 0/1	15th = 0/1
16th = 0/1	17th = 2/3	18th = 3/6	19th = 3/9	20th = 3/12	21st= 2/14	22nd= 8/22
23rd=14/36	24th =6/42 1 hos 1 dead	25th = 17/59 3 hos 1 dead	26th = 10/69 3 hos 1 dead

Here are the charts the State put up.

They've added to the description "cases are assigned by date of onset, diagnosis, or report - whichever is earliest..."   Previously these charts were 'date of onset.'  So, again, it seems to me, there is no consistent way to figure out the rate of increase of cases  from this chart, even though it is on a timeline, because the numbers might mean different things and we aren't told why any given box is assigned the date it has.  Or, if a given box on the chart today might be moved to a different date tomorrow.  Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I understand what that says.  This chart does give a visual sense of the dominance of Anchorage cases.  And the graphs below give us another chronological look of tests, but not of confirmed cases.

Is Ketchikan the second highest community (11) because the person who brought it into the community saw so many people?  Because it was easier to track who he saw?  Or because a larger proportion of people were tested?

1388 people have been tested according to the top chart.  While they attach numbers to the cumulative chart, I don't know why they don't attach numbers to the daily chart.  It would be much easier to figure out the numbers.  As it is, we have to subtract yesterday's cumulative from today's to figure out a more precise number of those tested.  But then we don't know if these numbers represent actual tests on a given day, or whether these are when the tests are reported to the State.


MY CHART:  I've reformatted the chart because I was tracking data the State no longer provided.  I hope this works better.

Alaska Covid-19 Data NewFor... by Steve on Scribd

One Person In A Leaky Boat Can Jeopardize Everyone - Same In A Pandemic

When Jim Jones' cult members drank the Kool Aid, it was a terrible tragedy.  An example of mass delusion resulting in many deaths.  But the people drinking the Kool Aid were only endangering themselves.

But when people don't self-isolate now, they endanger everyone.  Including themselves, not only through getting the virus, but through overburdening health facilities.

Then people with normal, treatable problems, may not have access to the health care they would normally get.  Car crashes, falls, fire victims, shooting victims, overdose victims, and on and on.

AND IT HAS ALREADY BEGUN

When you call the Medical Practice I go to here in Anchorage, Alaska, you get this message on the phone:

"Due to COVID-19 our visits are solely focused on the sick who need urgent care.  People scheduled for wellness visits are asked to postpone their visits."

So since I'm overall improved - three steps forward, two back - I'm not bothering them.  My coughing  is less frequent, my temperature lower (though it varies greatly and was 99˚F two nights ago, 98.4 last night), and today I don't feel as weak as I did a couple of days ago.

I also got the lab test report back.  They tested me for a lot more things that I realized and a quick glance shows that everything was negative.  The only thing I really wanted to be tested for was COVID-19, but that they didn't test for.

RESPIRATORY PATHOGEN PANEL,NAAT - Final result (03/11/2020 4:45 PM AKDT)

RESPIRATORY PATHOGEN PANEL,NAAT - Final result (03/11/2020 4:45 PM AKDT)
Component	Value	Ref Range	Performed At	Pathologist Signature
Respiratory Pathogens Panel	Negative Comment:  A negative result does not rule out the presence of viral nucleic acid below the limit of detection of this assay or the presence of PCR inhibitors and does not rule out infection with these viruses. This test is FDA approved and is intended for in vitro diagnostic use.	Negative	PAMC MICRO LAB
Adenovirus	Not Detected	Not Detected	PAMC MICRO LAB
Coronavirus 229E	Not DetectedComment: This test does NOT detect the novel Coronavirus that causes COVID-19. Follow your local Public Health Authority's guidelines for COVID-19 testing.	Not Detected	PAMC MICRO LAB
Coronavirus HKU1	Not DetectedComment: This test does NOT detect the novel Coronavirus that causes COVID-19. Follow your local Public Health Authority's guidelines for COVID-19 testing.	Not Detected	PAMC MICRO LAB
Coronavirus NL63	Not DetectedComment: This test does NOT detect the novel Coronavirus that causes COVID-19. Follow your local Public Health Authority's guidelines for COVID-19 testing.	Not Detected	PAMC MICRO LAB
Coronavirus OC43	Not DetectedComment: This test does NOT detect the novel Coronavirus that causes COVID-19. Follow your local Public Health Authority's guidelines for COVID-19 testing.	Not Detected	PAMC MICRO LAB
Human Metapneumovirus	Not Detected	Not Detected	PAMC MICRO LAB
Rhinovirus/Enterovirus	Not Detected	Not Detected	PAMC MICRO LAB
Influenza A PCR	Not Detected	Not Detected	PAMC MICRO LAB
Influenza A 2009 H1	Not Detected	Not Detected	PAMC MICRO LAB
Influenza A H1	Not Detected	Not Detected	PAMC MICRO LAB
Influenza A H3	Not Detected	Not Detected	PAMC MICRO LAB
Influenza B PCR	Not Detected	Not Detected	PAMC MICRO LAB
Parainfluenza 1	Not Detected	Not Detected	PAMC MICRO LAB
Parainfluenza 2	Not Detected	Not Detected	PAMC MICRO LAB
Parainfluenza 3	Not Detected	Not Detected	PAMC MICRO LAB
Parainfluenza 4	Not Detected	Not Detected	PAMC MICRO LAB
RSV	Not Detected	Not Detected	PAMC MICRO LAB
Bordetella Pertussis PCR	Not Detected	Not Detected	PAMC MICRO LAB
Chlamydia pneumoniae	Not Detected	Not Detected	PAMC MICRO LAB
Mycoplasma pneumoniae	Not Detected	Not Detected	PAMC MICRO LAB

Stay healthy everyone.

Peace Corps Volunteers Fired, Brought Back Home Without Insurance [Updated]

As an RPCV (Returned Peace Corps Volunteer) I feel compelled to note here that some 7300 active Peace Corps volunteers were brought back home to the US because of the Corona Virus. So far, so good.  But they were also fired and cut off from their health insurance.  Some were at the end of their two year assignments, others at various stages.

Peace Corps Volunteers don't get paid much anyway so keeping on salary for a few months wouldn't have been a big deal.

Glassdoor says the average monthly pay is $314 for Peace Corps Volunteers.  Their total pay is higher because an amount is set aside as a cash payment when they return to the United States.  There also may be other variables such as pay for housing, but that depends on each country's situation.

These are folks who have been representing the United States as teachers, sanitation engineers, forestry experts, and a wide variety of similar jobs.  They range in age from early 20s to 60s and 70s. Bringing them back and just cutting them off like that in the middle of a pandemic just seems mean spirited.

Here's more from Talking Points Memo - with a detailed report of evacuation from Peru.

[I got this update today that there's money in the emergency stimulus bill for Peace Corps evacuees.

"Late Wednesday (March 25), the U.S. Senate passed an emergency stimulus bill that includes $88 million for Peace Corps. The legislation now heads to the House of Representative for a vote expected Friday (March 27). That’s just the first step in a long-term effort to keep Peace Corps funding strong and support evacuees. That is why we are issuing a challenge to our community to send 100,000 messages to Congress. Learn more
Peace Corps volunteers come into country after learning the local language and training to improve their skills to do serious work in country.  The 'victories' of volunteers are the people they help to improve their lives or the health of their communities or the economic strength of a community.  The statistics are in the hearts of the people whose lives they touched, only occasionally being articulated."]

At the 45th Anniversary celebration of Peace Corp Thailand the Foreign Minister of Thailand told the group that his life as a poor Northeaster village kid was transformed by a Peace Corps volunteer who taught him English in school and got him into the AFS program which had him live with a US family for a year. I had a former student come to me - someone whose life I thought I'd messed up by getting him into a Bangkok school where I figured later, he'd just be a misfit - to say it had transformed his life and enabled him to live a much richer life than he ever could have had I not been there.  The director of Peace Corps in Thailand at that time (45th Anniversary) and the  US Ambassador to Thailand (both former Thai Peace Corps volunteers) each told stories of returning to their villages and finding out that they were still remembered fondly because of projects that had greatly improved the villages.

And this doesn't count all the RPCV's who return to the US speaking languages from all over the world, with a close understanding of the countries where they volunteered.  They bring this knowledge back and it transform how they do their jobs when they get back home and how they inform public debates on local as well as international issues.

Just had to make sure this was noted.

March 25 Alaska COVID-19 Update - 17 More Cases Up to 59

First, my daily summary of new cases/cumulative cases.  Wednesday we had 17 new/59 cumulative cases.  That's the highest daily jump after Tuesday's dip down to only 6 new cases.

CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH 2020
Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
new/total			12th  = 0/0	13th = 1/1	14th = 0/1	15th = 0/1
16th = 0/1	17th = 2/3	18th = 3/6	19th = 3/9	20th = 3/12	21st= 2/14	22nd= 8/22
23rd=14/36	24th =6/42 1 hos 1 dead	25th = 17/59 1 hos 1 dead

From the State's update page. (Note, what's up today will be replaced by the new charts.  I haven't found any other place where you can find all the older charts, except on this blog.  I'm using the tag "Alaska COVID-19 Count" for these posts.  You can click on the tag under these posts.)

I'm still trying to find a definition of 'date of onset' and how they determine that.  So the chart above DOESN'T tell us the day new cases were confirmed.  My understanding is that "date of onset" might be useful to predict new cases, but I'm not sure if that's true or how it works.  

And if anyone from the state is reading this, I'd suggest that when you have two or more of one color, instead of one big block, you separate each individual case with the same lines you use between colors.  It would be easier for people to count that way.

"Close-contact" and "Pending" have been added to the chart.  Dr. Zink explained this a little bit in last night's press conference, but the difference between non-travel and close-contact still isn't clear to me.  I'm thinking, if someone touched a surface - a door handle or an ATM keypad and then touched their face - how can you track that down?  I don't think you can, at least not for sure.

The chart above is getting longer on the screen (as the state adds individual towns and cities) and harder for me to capture in a single screen shot.  Maybe tomorrow I'll just copy the whole page, even though it has more info than I'm trying to get here.  I'll experiment.

After a steep rise on March 23 the number of new tests dropped sharply on March 24.  

Alaska Covid-19 Data by Steve on Scribd

It's another beautiful day in Anchorage I hope people can get out and enjoy it.  It seems for walkers there's plenty of space to practice healthy physical distancing.