Where Are You On The Climate Change Policy Hierarchy??

It seems to me there is a hierarchy of Climate Change statements.  Some don't agree with the first statement.  Others get further down the list.  Here are the statements that I see.  How far down the list do you get before you don't agree? 

1. Global Climate Change is occurring.
2. Humans actions are causing most of it.
3. We can do something about it. 
4. We can be fossil fuel free by 2050, possibly 2030.
1.  It's technically possible, but alternative fuels are too expensive
2.  It's technically and economically feasible, but not politically feasible.

[UPDATE August 9:  I should have added 4.3 here.

•  3.   It's technically, economically, and politically feasible.]

I was probably at statement 3 a year ago. At the Bioneers in Alaska  conference last year, I heard a telesession with Amory Lovins discussing his book Reinventing Fire.  He argues that we can be carbon energy free by 2050 and it wouldn't cost more than the path we are currently on.  (You can hear his TED talk explaining how, here.)

A friend who is far more technically savvy than I expressed serious doubt.  So I started going to Citizens Climate Change monthly meetings, another group I learned about at the Bioneers Conference.

Let's look at the four (plus 2) statements.

1&2.  Climate change is happening and people are causing it.

Most scientists agree this is the case.  A small minority are still skeptics.  Their number decreases regularly.  A major recent convert is UC Berkeley Prof. Richard Muller, who had been a high profile skeptic, and recently wrote a New York Times opinion piece, “The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic,”

“Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I’m now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause.”

The Koch brothers seem to be the main supporters of global warming deniers.  They even paid for part of Muller's research.

3.  There's something we can do about it.

I think most people who accept that people cause climate change believe something can be done - like turning out the lights when you aren't using them, buying electric cars, and other energy saving activities.  But is this enough to prevent irreversible harm to the earth and our ability to survive?  That gets us to statement 4.

4.  We can switch to alternatives by 2050.

This was where I was getting hung up.  After Saturday's Citizens' Climate Lobby (CCL) meeting I have come to understand why my tech friend doesn't agree and why he might be wrong.

4.1 - If you compare prices of oil, coal, and natural gas to alternative fuels, it looks like it will be impossible to be able to switch.  But the people who argue that we can,  include the externalities of coal and oil in their economic calculations.  That is, they look at the costs that are imposed on society by these energy sources that the companies don't pay - health costs and all the environmental damage.  If they were forced to pay for this, then alternatives would be more than competitive.  There are a number of other issues that help support the idea of things being switchable.  I don't claim to understand it all, but I do know that human history is full of such changes from old technologies to new, unbelievable ones.  Anyone living in the last 40 years has experienced this first hand on a lot of fronts. 

4.2 - Even if it were technologically and economically feasible, many people just think it's not political possible.  I'm seeing a number of books at the CCL meetings.  One is a book of statements on climate change by most of the major religious groups.  Most of them recognize that climate change is a human caused problem.  So that's a big step.
Second, there are people working on a carbon tax, that uses market forces, to tax carbons and give every American part of that tax.  As an Alaskan I think about the Alaska Permanent Fund dividends, though I'm not sure that's quite the right model.

I'm also impressed with the CCL strategy.  Their goal is to have groups in every Congressional district who can build relationships with their US Senators and Congress members where they can share their expertise and counter the lobbying by those who have an economic or ideological stake in fossil fuels.

At the monthly meetings there's an international (Canada and the US) teleconference call which includes a presentation by an expert and then there is discussion among the different local groups.  The meetings are run very efficiently.

You can learn more about CCL at their website.  Folks in the Anchorage area can talk to CCL reps at the CCL table at the

Renewable Energy for Alaska Project (REAP) Fair 

on the Parkstrip 

Saturday August 11, 2012 

between 11am and 9pm. 

Curiosity Lands Safely On Mars - Live Via Ulive

There's been a lot of bad mouthing of 'scientists' these days, mostly by some politicians who don't like what scientists are telling them.  But I'd like to see members of Congress perform as spectacularly as these scientists at the Jet Propulsion Lab as they landed their cargo safely on Mars.  This was no small feat.  Here are some screen shots from the live online video feed.  Double click to enlarge them. 

Four minutes to go

JPL Staff Waiting

Simulated Image of Parachuting Down

Touch Down

Safe On Mars - Lots of Hugging

More Happy Scientists

First Two Images - Left Shows Shadow of Curiosity, Right is Wheel

There is still live coverage, as I type, online here.

This is what science can do when supported by politicians approving their budgets. 

Who Are The Sikhs?

We've been out all day enjoying being in Alaska, so I only just heard about the attack at the Sikh temple in Wisconsin.  

I'm guessing a lot of Americans don't know much about Sikhs.  I don't know a lot, but we did get to go to the Golden Temple in Amritsar, India in 2006.  The Golden Temple is the center of the Sikh religion. I'm editing together a few posts from that time. 

November 10, 2006

We gave up on the idea of going to the Golden Temple at 4 am to see the Book procession. That turned out to be fine and we got to sleep in a bit. We were at the Temple at 8:30am. You come into the complex, check in your shoes and socks, (Yeah, I got to go barefoot!) and then walk through the water pools (running water to clean your feet). Then up the stairs to this magical view of the temple shimmering in the middle of the water.  We walked around the temple first, then along the causeway out to the temple. The place is full of people in all manner of beautiful and/or interesting types of clothing. Men strip down to their shorts and bathe in the pool. Women have a more private bathing area. This is the Vatican of the Sikh world. Built about 400 years ago it is a beautiful and spiritual place. The chanting inside the temple is broadcast throughout. You watch Sikhs enter and a look of joy comes over some of them as they then prostrate themselves toward the temple. We were there early enough that it wasn't too crowded going into the temple. No pictures allowed there. In here is the holy Book of the Sikh world. Beautiful carpets, the walls intricately painted, the rhythm of the chanting, pilgrims meditating. There is such a spiritual and calming sense here. Someone gives me a round sweet. Someone else mimics sticking it in my mouth. Another asks if we have gone upstairs. We follow the winding stairs to another room with a man reading a huge book. Views from between the golden 'knobs' surrounding the roof of the temple.

A really special place. Our short stay in Amritsar has been fantastic. Then after circling (squaring would be more accurate) the temple again, we eventually decided we needed to move on. We stopped in a book store and bought a couple of books and some CDs of the chanting, retrieved our shoes and wandered out into the world again. By the way, when I pulled out my map of Amritsar to ask the man at the book store directions, he said, Put away the maps. Maps are useless in India. One gains spiritual enrichment by helping others find their way.

The world. Bike rickshaws, motorcycles, horse drawn carriages, shops selling all sorts of Sikh related paraphernalia, people squeezing between the vehicles, horns honking... up the street and into another oasis - at least today. This is the Jailliawalla Bawg, where the British massacred about 1000 Indians. If you saw the movie Gandhi, you saw the Indians protesting in the park while the British came in through the only entrance and set up their guns. Today it is a lush green park full of school kids visiting the various memorials to the dead.

We stopped in a cyber cafe and got all my pictures downloaded to a CD and then into a restaurant for a delicious lunch.

 October 25, 2006

We're going to India next week and so today we met with a Sikh friend to talk about our trip. While talking about visiting the Golden Temple in Amritsar, he told us that every day "The Book" is ceremoniously carried into the Golden Temple at 4am and then returned in the evening. And - here's the interesting part - that ceremony is covered live every day by satellite! So we saw a tape of today's ceremony. Below is more about it from incredibleindians.com.

Amrit Vela
Amrit Vela means the pre-dawn moment. It is actually the time when the watch strikes four o'clock in the morning. The pilgrims wake up and start preparing for a serene early morning visit to the Darbar Saheb. After reaching the temple entrance, one must take off their shoes at the 'shoes counter'. The next step is to dip one's feet at a channel of running water. On the way to the temple, there are lined up flower stalls, for one to buy garlands or just fresh flowers for offering...

This link tells you more about the Golden Temple and has spectacular photos that give you a better sense of the whole temple grounds.

Here's a link that tells you a little about the Sikh religion.

What Takes Precedence For Americans - The First Amendment or The First Commandment?

"In the Bible, God doesn't grant the freedom of speech.  God doesn't grant the right to bear arms. God doesn't grant the right to assembly.  God doesn't even grant the freedom of religion either.  If you don't worship Him, you're screwed!"

 A little notice in the paper said that Joe Raiolo, an editor at Mad magazine, was talking at the library on "The Joys of Censorship."  There were several years when a preteen kid who used to be me had a subscription to Mad magazine.  And the adult who blogs today always wants to hear what someone says about censorship. 

As the quote above suggests, this was a lively event.  More standup comedian than lecturer, Raiola covered a lot of ground.   He said he wasn't going to use euphemisms -  he would say asshole, not A-hole, fucking, not freeking, and nigger, not the N word.  He spent some time explaining that last one, which he said was the second most controversial word, but he protested that people were not allowed to use it.  It depends on the context.  He deplored an Alabama book publisher who put out a version of Huckleberry Finn that substituted 'slave' for 'nigger' so more schools would use it. On the other hand, rappers are taking back the word and defusing its explosive power. 

He went through a list of Supreme Court decisions on first amendment rights:

• it's ok to sell and watch films depicting criminal torture and killing of animals
• corporations have the same free speech rights as individual humans
• the Westboro Baptist church can picket military funerals with "God Hates Fags" signs
• the most violent and repugnant video games can't be restricted to adults
• it's ok to lie about your military service and medals

In contrast, Raiolo said, it's still illegal for radio and televisions stations to broadcast George Carlin's seven dirty words routine.  

I didn't think to ask whether he thought that if Carlin's case were heard today whether it might get different treatment, since the fines CBS received for showing Janet Jackson's exposed breast were thrown out and the Supreme Court refused to hear the appeal.  

He also covered comic book history and the birth of Mad magazine with a look at some of the old covers and article, including their international editions (which can use US copy, but have control over their own content.)

In the Q&A there was a discussion of where Mad magazine draws the line on what it publishes.  Raiola said he could describe it, that comedians try to know where the line is and then push it.  But he gave some examples of things they don't push - like common offensive four letter words and sexuality.

I see on Raiola's website, that people in Wasilla will be able to see Raiola twice on Tuesday.  He'll do something on Mad magazine at 4pm at the library and the censorship talk at 7pm at the Old Mat-Su Cinema.  

[I have some video, but I did ask permission to post it and Raiola wanted to see it first. I tend to respect such requests for performances.  I could argue that his free presentation, at the library, on censorship could be interpreted is fair game for reporting.  But just because one can do something, doesn't mean one should.  And I suspect Mad magazine has pretty good legal expertise and representation on an issue like this.  So I'll wait to post any video.]

___ Is To Alaska What Football Is To Penn State

This is just a little thought experiment.  I’m going to try to keep the analogy simple.  [I didn't succeed.  Life is complicated and so many things are interrelated.  But the basic analogy you can read quickly.]


Fill in the blank:

___ is to Alaska  what football is to  Penn State.

 I'm sure every Alaskan reader would immediately say "thoughtfulness."  No?  How about that black gooey stuff?

When things go wrong, the very least we can do is learn something from them so that when the elements return in a different disguise, we can recognize them.  What then are the key elements of these two stories?

The Penn State

1.  A sacred cow - At Penn State, football served the function of uniting everyone in spirit and (at least people believe) generated a lot of money, which was translated into enhanced programs and lots of jobs on campus for people in the surrounding community.    Certainly the hotels and bars and restaurants benefited from crowds coming to home football games, and buying Penn State paraphernalia. The  university benefited from the television money the highly ranked football team brought in.  
Challenging the sacred cow in any way 1) is disloyal to the Penn State spirit and 2) threatens a lot of people’s income. 
This results in relatively little scrutiny because 1) everyone wants to believe in the goodness of football and 2) those benefiting don’t want to threaten those benefits.  The rule of a sacred cow is that no one should raise embarrassing questions.  So people self-censor, knowing that any criticism will bring on quick retaliation.

2.  Big fish in a  small pond.  Penn State is located in a relatively small city where its and football's influence is much bigger than it would be in a larger city.  A challenge from inside is unlikely.

3.  An aging hero with long incumbency- Joe Paterno's 45 year career made him the longest serving head coach in US college football.  Born in 1926, Paterno became Penn State’s assistant football coach in 1950, and the head coach in 1966.  Dan Rorabaugh at US News wrote a line that appears repeatedly online:  “Joe Paterno is Penn State.” Paterno did a lot of good.  In addition to winning, Paterno's team regularly had high graduation rates.  In 2011 his dynasty ended when it was disclosed that he knew that his trusted, long-term assistant coach and friend, had been sexually molesting young boys in Penn State related programs for many years.   Paterno died shortly after that. 


4.  A  spoiler:  A good friend of the hero who turns out to have some serious problems - For whatever reasons, personal loyalty, protecting the sanctity of PSU football, disbelief, Paterno turned a blind eye to Jerry Sandusky's crimes.  More than a blind eye, according to the Freeh Report.  The hero, it turns out, knew and blocked attempts to do something about it.



The Alaskan Story

1.  The Alaska sacred cow has to be oil.  And probably to an even greater extent than football at Penn State.   Close to 90% of the state revenue comes from oil.  Every community has projects that were built on oil money.  Every citizen is eligible for a permanent fund check. 

2.  Oil is a whale in a small pond up in Alaska. 

3.  An aging hero with long incumbency -   There is no hero as closely linked to oil as Paterno was linked to football.  The Alaskan most similar to Paterno was Senator Ted Stevens.  Senator Lisa Murkowski said at Stevens’ memorial "Ted was Alaska – he just was Alaska.”  He was born in 1923 and was appointed to the US Senate in 1968. Seeing any patterns?

When he left, he was the longest serving Republican in Senate history. In 2008 a good friend and political ally from the oil industry testified against  Stevens in court.  Stevens was convicted and lost his reelection bid months later. (The charges were later vacated by Obama’s incoming Attorney General because of prosecutorial misconduct.)  Stevens died in a plane crash two years later.

4.  A spoiler:  A good friend of the hero who turns out to have some serious problems.  Bill Allen, a high school dropout  who became a powerful political king-maker as the head of his billion dollar oil support company VECO, became a witness for the Department of Justice against a number of Alaskan politicians including Ted Stevens.  Aside for political corruption on behalf of the oil industry, Allen is alleged to have had an affair with an underage young woman. 



In the Penn State case, the Pennsylvania Attorney General's office came into the small Pennsylvania town where the University is located to prosecute Jerry Sandusky.  Penn State University accepted Joe Paterno's early retirement.  A University commissioned report by former FBI Director Louis Freeh harshly condemned a number of Penn State officials.  Paterno and three other key officials "are portrayed as manipulating administrative channels to protect Sandusky, the football program and their own reputations."  [If Alaska is a model, Pennsylvanians should watch for the rehabilitation of Joe Paterno in the not too distant future.]

In Alaska, the FBI began a covert operation which video taped Bill Allen's hotel suite in Juneau as he entertained legislators and made deals with them trying to prevent tax changes that were not approved of by the oil companies.  Allen cooperated with the Justice Department and was a witness in a number of court cases where state legislators were convicted of various corruption charges.  He also was the key witness in the Stevens trial in DC, where Stevens was convicted as well.  Stevens lost his reelection bid shortly after, narrowly.   However, Obama's attorney general vacated Stevens' conviction because of prosecutorial misconduct.


In the meantime, a former oil company lobbyist is now the governor of Alaska.  And few see any problem with this. Can you imagine the outcry if the former lobbyist for Green Peace or Wilderness Society were governor?  Although the oil companies have been tarnished, their interests are still in power and they are spending money to maintain their sacred status,  aided in the upcoming election by the Citizens United decision. 

Oil plays an important role in the world.  Oil has brought Alaska wealth and benefits we could not have had otherwise.  But any faction that gains so much power and influence in any society or institution, begins eventually to feel entitled and gets harder and harder to keep accountable. 

The stifling of sacred cow challengers shows up in lots of places. 

• Why weren’t people asking more questions about the home loan industry?  Or listening to those who did?  
• Why didn’t parents believe their kids who said the priest molested them, of if the kids remained silent, why didn’t they question the kids’ different behavior?  
• Why has it taken so long for the military to address the many psychological problems of soldiers returning from Iraq and Afghanistan?  Or take seriously the complaints of sexual harassment and assault by women in the military?  
• Why do we continue to spend billions on the so called War on Drugs when it clearly is so ineffective? 

All of these issues involve sacred cows that people want to believe in and people resist those who challenge those beliefs.  They all involve people who benefited from silencing and marginalizing those who challenged the system.  All of them have wealthy interests funding misinformation campaigns to convince the public and the decision makers that there is no problem. 

This is nothing new in human history.  Ruling classes have brainwashed their subjects from the beginning.  Americans think they are different, yet large numbers of our populaltion succumb to empty slogans, and to appeals to their fears and insecurities. 

I think about Egyptians and Libyans and Russians and Syrians who see through their government’s lies and risk their lives to change things.  Americans are willing to sacrifice the lives and mental health of the relatively few Americans who serve in the military, but what are they personally willing to sacrifice? 

It turns out that not staying alert has cost people their homes, their savings, and their jobs.  It wasn't a voluntary sacrifice.  Rather,  enough people voted for those false slogans and put people into power whose faith in unbridled capitalism allowed bankers and traders to make fortunes on what turned out to be giant swindles.

We get another turn at bat in November.   The propagandists are already spinning their lies and spreading hate and fear to convince voters to forget the size of the catastrophe that Obama inherited and instead blame him for the fallout of the Bush2 administration. 

----------
While I was looking for a link to support a point I'd made, I found that Cliff Groh had already made the Paterno-Stevens comparison in November 2011.

Hotel Booking Scam

I got this email today. Fortunately, I know I did not book a hotel for August 4-6 and I'm reasonably sure that opening the file will not reveal any information I want, but rather would be an attempt to mischief.

Subject:  Reservation Confirmation [1342976], Thu, 2 Aug 2012 09:47:18 +0800
From:  "Booking.com" <customer.service@my.booking.com>
Date:  Wed, August 1, 2012 5:47 pm
Priority:  Normal
Options: 
View Full Header |  View Printable Version  | Download this as a file  | View Message details | Report as SpamHotel Confirmation:   7395329

Date:   Thu, 2 Aug 2012 09:47:18 +0800
---
Herewith you receive the electronic reservation for your hotel. Please refer to attached file for full details.
Arrival: Saturday, August 04, 2012
Departure: Monday, August 06, 2012
Number of rooms: 1

Sincerely, Customer Service Team
Booking.com  http://www.XXXX
Your Reference ID is: 3225161

The Booking.com reservation service is free of charge. We do not charge you any booking fees or administration fees, and in many cases rooms offer free cancellation.-Booking.com guarantees the best hotel rates in both cities and regional destinations - ranging from small family hotels to luxury hotels.


Attachments:

What are some of the telltale signs of a scam?  This one is deceptively simple, but . . .

The email doesn't list a recipient, there's no  "To"

• My name is not mentioned in the reservation
• No hotel is mentioned in the reservation, though there is a legitimate website called My Booking, but there is an extra 'dot' in the email address listed
• I have to open a file - a well known way to infect computers with whatever evil the spammer/hacker is sending

I'm sure there are other signs I'm missing*.  But  . . .


How many people will unthinkingly click on the attachment in attempt to clear up the confusion?
How many people have hotel reservations for August 4 who will open this?
If the world were a fair and equitable place, would there still be people who would need to disrupt other people's lives with stuff like this?


*There are lots of sites that offer advice on how to deal with email hoaxes and scams.  I even found one that let's you paste the email into window and they'll check if it's a known scam.  But you have to give them an email address.  I passed on that.

Here are a couple sites.  It's useful to check them now and then as a reminder, plus these things evolve and get more sophisticated.

Microsoft Office tips
Kansas State University - Email Threats
(Three years old, but still interesting)  Wired - Identify a Phishing Scam

[UPDATE: August 7:  MX Lab reported on July 31 that the linked zip file contained a trojan:

The attached ZIP file has the name Booking_Confirmation_073120123972991.zip and contains the 37 kB large file Booking_Confirmation_07312012.exe.
The trojan is known as W32/Falab.J2.gen!Eldorado, Trojan-Spy.Agent, Downloader.Dromedan or TROJ_KRYPTIK.NC.
At the time of writing, only 9 of the 41 AV engines did detect the trojan at Virus Total.
Virus Total permalink and SHA256: 78cca5db33888091d98854835d6ca80b77568d5f106a9d7739e7a3efa02df659.

Hmmm, I should have found that before I posted.]

Mary Louise Rasmuson Dies Monday at 101

I didn't know Mary Louise Rasmuson, but anyone who lives in Anchorage is directly impacted by the Rasmuson name.  My office at the university was in Rasmuson Hall.  The Anchorage Museum has Rasmuson in its name.  Of the 'old' Anchorage wealthy families, the Rasmuson family is the one that has established a major foundation that funds a large variety of people and causes.  The first time I knowingly was in the same room with Mary Louise Rasmuson was May 5 of this year when she was awarded a Meritorious Service Award from the University of Alaska Anchorage.  Here is my sketchy, from across the room, video tape of her response to receiving the award.




Here's the description for her UAA award.

Here's today's Anchorage Daily News article on Rasmuson.

Running with Eagles and Salmon

A 3.5 mile run from my house and back yesterday afternoon had me communing with three bald eagles (the other two were too far to catch on the camera)

A few minutes later, going over a Campbell Creek bridge there were salmon coming home to spawn. It's the red/orangish splotch in the lower middle of the photo. This is an untouched photo - no games in photoshop. Just the way the light was reflecting on the water.

Today it's raining again.

Hot? Take A Video Break At Ptarmigan Creek, Alaska

Last Tuesday we hiked up along Ptarmigan Creek to Ptarmigan Lake.   It was as beautiful as ever.  We saw some patches of blue in the sky.  The temperature was in the high 60's or low 70's.


Above is the lake at the end of the hike up.  (Actually the trail goes to the other end of the lake, but we stopped here.)

Here's some video of the creek at a point where the water rushes over some rocks.



 Here's another view of the creek.

The beginning of the trail has been made a bit too civilized for me.  









But it soon was back to the old trail.   

Although this is Ptarmigan Creek, we saw no ptarmigan.  But we did see a couple of spruce grouse hens with chicks.

We heard the flutter of wings as the chicks with this hen flew up to the tree.  Then the mother led us along the trail away from the chicks in the tree.  She'd stop to make sure I was following her, then she'd rush further down the path until she suddenly flew up into a tree.

The chicks.

At one point there was a cut off and this sign on a nearby tree.  Yes, the trail is Ptarmigan Creek Trail, but since the creek is below and you have to climb up to get to the lake, it's understandable that people might think this was the point.  It's good that someone added to the sign.   

Here the trail has  split from the creek and goes up along the side of the mountain and the trail gets even iffier here and there.  Here you can see brush crowding the trail with one of the peaks around the lake ahead coming into view. 

 

The trail was a bit overgrown.  We made a lot of noise to alert any nearby bears as we pushed through the cow parsnip to open the trail.  I don't know if any bears heard us, but we didn't see them.

There were lots of blue berries to eat along the way.

Polisse

We saw this wrenching French film tonight.  It follows a team of police in the Child Protection Unit as they deal with pedophiles, messed up kids, and their own difficult relationships in and out of the office.   I was exhausted at the end of the film and slightly disturbed.  It was powerful and I didn't think I could write much.  Maybe just a giant exclamation point.

I looked on line to get some background and found a Guardian review that pretty much blew it off:

There can hardly be an odder or more uncomfortable film this week than Maïwenn's Polisse, a drama with interesting moments, but also some false notes and a wildly bizarre ending.

 Whoa, this won the Jury Prize at Cannes in 2011.  I found another review.  This from  New York Times reviewer, A.O. Scott,  who loved it.  Maybe a little too uncritically.  As a film, it was good cinema.  As an accurate depiction of the Child Protection Unit in Paris?  I can't judge. It's supposed to be based on real cases.

Here's a video clip of what I understood to be a Muslim police officer grilling an Iman who is sending his underage daughter back to the home country to be married.  He doesn't take her seriously as she gets ever more angry, finally pulling out a Quran and demanding he show her where it says women shouldn't work, or that young daughters should be given away.


This is rough and powerful stuff and the officers have trouble dealing with it themselves. A lot of the movie is highly confrontational.