Sunday, August 05, 2012

Curiosity Lands Safely On Mars - Live Via Ulive

There's been a lot of bad mouthing of 'scientists' these days, mostly by some politicians who don't like what scientists are telling them.  But I'd like to see members of Congress perform as spectacularly as these scientists at the Jet Propulsion Lab as they landed their cargo safely on Mars.  This was no small feat.  Here are some screen shots from the live online video feed.  Double click to enlarge them. 

Four minutes to go

JPL Staff Waiting

Simulated Image of Parachuting Down

Touch Down
Safe On Mars - Lots of Hugging

More Happy Scientists
First Two Images - Left Shows Shadow of Curiosity, Right is Wheel

There is still live coverage, as I type, online here.

This is what science can do when supported by politicians approving their budgets. 

Who Are The Sikhs?

We've been out all day enjoying being in Alaska, so I only just heard about the attack at the Sikh temple in Wisconsin.  

I'm guessing a lot of Americans don't know much about Sikhs.  I don't know a lot, but we did get to go to the Golden Temple in Amritsar, India in 2006.  The Golden Temple is the center of the Sikh religion. I'm editing together a few posts from that time. 

November 10, 2006

We gave up on the idea of going to the Golden Temple at 4 am to see the Book procession. That turned out to be fine and we got to sleep in a bit. We were at the Temple at 8:30am. You come into the complex, check in your shoes and socks, (Yeah, I got to go barefoot!) and then walk through the water pools (running water to clean your feet). Then up the stairs to this magical view of the temple shimmering in the middle of the water.  We walked around the temple first, then along the causeway out to the temple. The place is full of people in all manner of beautiful and/or interesting types of clothing. Men strip down to their shorts and bathe in the pool. Women have a more private bathing area. This is the Vatican of the Sikh world. Built about 400 years ago it is a beautiful and spiritual place. The chanting inside the temple is broadcast throughout. You watch Sikhs enter and a look of joy comes over some of them as they then prostrate themselves toward the temple. We were there early enough that it wasn't too crowded going into the temple. No pictures allowed there. In here is the holy Book of the Sikh world. Beautiful carpets, the walls intricately painted, the rhythm of the chanting, pilgrims meditating. There is such a spiritual and calming sense here. Someone gives me a round sweet. Someone else mimics sticking it in my mouth. Another asks if we have gone upstairs. We follow the winding stairs to another room with a man reading a huge book. Views from between the golden 'knobs' surrounding the roof of the temple.

A really special place. Our short stay in Amritsar has been fantastic. Then after circling (squaring would be more accurate) the temple again, we eventually decided we needed to move on. We stopped in a book store and bought a couple of books and some CDs of the chanting, retrieved our shoes and wandered out into the world again. By the way, when I pulled out my map of Amritsar to ask the man at the book store directions, he said, Put away the maps. Maps are useless in India. One gains spiritual enrichment by helping others find their way.

The world. Bike rickshaws, motorcycles, horse drawn carriages, shops selling all sorts of Sikh related paraphernalia, people squeezing between the vehicles, horns honking... up the street and into another oasis - at least today. This is the Jailliawalla Bawg, where the British massacred about 1000 Indians. If you saw the movie Gandhi, you saw the Indians protesting in the park while the British came in through the only entrance and set up their guns. Today it is a lush green park full of school kids visiting the various memorials to the dead.

We stopped in a cyber cafe and got all my pictures downloaded to a CD and then into a restaurant for a delicious lunch.




 October 25, 2006
We're going to India next week and so today we met with a Sikh friend to talk about our trip. While talking about visiting the Golden Temple in Amritsar, he told us that every day "The Book" is ceremoniously carried into the Golden Temple at 4am and then returned in the evening. And - here's the interesting part - that ceremony is covered live every day by satellite! So we saw a tape of today's ceremony. Below is more about it from incredibleindians.com.

Amrit Vela
Amrit Vela means the pre-dawn moment. It is actually the time when the watch strikes four o'clock in the morning. The pilgrims wake up and start preparing for a serene early morning visit to the Darbar Saheb. After reaching the temple entrance, one must take off their shoes at the 'shoes counter'. The next step is to dip one's feet at a channel of running water. On the way to the temple, there are lined up flower stalls, for one to buy garlands or just fresh flowers for offering...

This link tells you more about the Golden Temple and has spectacular photos that give you a better sense of the whole temple grounds.

Here's a link that tells you a little about the Sikh religion.

Saturday, August 04, 2012

What Takes Precedence For Americans - The First Amendment or The First Commandment?

"In the Bible, God doesn't grant the freedom of speech.  God doesn't grant the right to bear arms. God doesn't grant the right to assembly.  God doesn't even grant the freedom of religion either.  If you don't worship Him, you're screwed!"
 A little notice in the paper said that Joe Raiolo, an editor at Mad magazine, was talking at the library on "The Joys of Censorship."  There were several years when a preteen kid who used to be me had a subscription to Mad magazine.  And the adult who blogs today always wants to hear what someone says about censorship. 

As the quote above suggests, this was a lively event.  More standup comedian than lecturer, Raiola covered a lot of ground.   He said he wasn't going to use euphemisms -  he would say asshole, not A-hole, fucking, not freeking, and nigger, not the N word.  He spent some time explaining that last one, which he said was the second most controversial word, but he protested that people were not allowed to use it.  It depends on the context.  He deplored an Alabama book publisher who put out a version of Huckleberry Finn that substituted 'slave' for 'nigger' so more schools would use it. On the other hand, rappers are taking back the word and defusing its explosive power. 

He went through a list of Supreme Court decisions on first amendment rights:
In contrast, Raiolo said, it's still illegal for radio and televisions stations to broadcast George Carlin's seven dirty words routine.  

I didn't think to ask whether he thought that if Carlin's case were heard today whether it might get different treatment, since the fines CBS received for showing Janet Jackson's exposed breast were thrown out and the Supreme Court refused to hear the appeal.  

He also covered comic book history and the birth of Mad magazine with a look at some of the old covers and article, including their international editions (which can use US copy, but have control over their own content.)

In the Q&A there was a discussion of where Mad magazine draws the line on what it publishes.  Raiola said he could describe it, that comedians try to know where the line is and then push it.  But he gave some examples of things they don't push - like common offensive four letter words and sexuality.

I see on Raiola's website, that people in Wasilla will be able to see Raiola twice on Tuesday.  He'll do something on Mad magazine at 4pm at the library and the censorship talk at 7pm at the Old Mat-Su Cinema.  

[I have some video, but I did ask permission to post it and Raiola wanted to see it first. I tend to respect such requests for performances.  I could argue that his free presentation, at the library, on censorship could be interpreted is fair game for reporting.  But just because one can do something, doesn't mean one should.  And I suspect Mad magazine has pretty good legal expertise and representation on an issue like this.  So I'll wait to post any video.]

Friday, August 03, 2012

___ Is To Alaska What Football Is To Penn State

This is just a little thought experiment.  I’m going to try to keep the analogy simple.  [I didn't succeed.  Life is complicated and so many things are interrelated.  But the basic analogy you can read quickly.]


Fill in the blank:

___ is to Alaska  what football is to  Penn State.

 I'm sure every Alaskan reader would immediately say "thoughtfulness."  No?  How about that black gooey stuff?

When things go wrong, the very least we can do is learn something from them so that when the elements return in a different disguise, we can recognize them.  What then are the key elements of these two stories?

The Penn State

1.  A sacred cow - At Penn State, football served the function of uniting everyone in spirit and (at least people believe) generated a lot of money, which was translated into enhanced programs and lots of jobs on campus for people in the surrounding community.    Certainly the hotels and bars and restaurants benefited from crowds coming to home football games, and buying Penn State paraphernalia. The  university benefited from the television money the highly ranked football team brought in.  
Challenging the sacred cow in any way 1) is disloyal to the Penn State spirit and 2) threatens a lot of people’s income. 
This results in relatively little scrutiny because 1) everyone wants to believe in the goodness of football and 2) those benefiting don’t want to threaten those benefits.  The rule of a sacred cow is that no one should raise embarrassing questions.  So people self-censor, knowing that any criticism will bring on quick retaliation.

2.  Big fish in a  small pond.  Penn State is located in a relatively small city where its and football's influence is much bigger than it would be in a larger city.  A challenge from inside is unlikely.

3.  An aging hero with long incumbency- Joe Paterno's 45 year career made him the longest serving head coach in US college football.  Born in 1926, Paterno became Penn State’s assistant football coach in 1950, and the head coach in 1966.  Dan Rorabaugh at US News wrote a line that appears repeatedly online:  “Joe Paterno is Penn State.” Paterno did a lot of good.  In addition to winning, Paterno's team regularly had high graduation rates.  In 2011 his dynasty ended when it was disclosed that he knew that his trusted, long-term assistant coach and friend, had been sexually molesting young boys in Penn State related programs for many years.   Paterno died shortly after that. 


4.  A  spoiler:  A good friend of the hero who turns out to have some serious problems - For whatever reasons, personal loyalty, protecting the sanctity of PSU football, disbelief, Paterno turned a blind eye to Jerry Sandusky's crimes.  More than a blind eye, according to the Freeh Report.  The hero, it turns out, knew and blocked attempts to do something about it.



The Alaskan Story

1.  The Alaska sacred cow has to be oil.  And probably to an even greater extent than football at Penn State.   Close to 90% of the state revenue comes from oil.  Every community has projects that were built on oil money.  Every citizen is eligible for a permanent fund check. 

2.  Oil is a whale in a small pond up in Alaska. 

3.  An aging hero with long incumbency -   There is no hero as closely linked to oil as Paterno was linked to football.  The Alaskan most similar to Paterno was Senator Ted Stevens.  Senator Lisa Murkowski said at Stevens’ memorial "Ted was Alaska – he just was Alaska.”  He was born in 1923 and was appointed to the US Senate in 1968. Seeing any patterns?

When he left, he was the longest serving Republican in Senate history. In 2008 a good friend and political ally from the oil industry testified against  Stevens in court.  Stevens was convicted and lost his reelection bid months later. (The charges were later vacated by Obama’s incoming Attorney General because of prosecutorial misconduct.)  Stevens died in a plane crash two years later.

4.  A spoiler:  A good friend of the hero who turns out to have some serious problems.  Bill Allen, a high school dropout  who became a powerful political king-maker as the head of his billion dollar oil support company VECO, became a witness for the Department of Justice against a number of Alaskan politicians including Ted Stevens.  Aside for political corruption on behalf of the oil industry, Allen is alleged to have had an affair with an underage young woman



In the Penn State case, the Pennsylvania Attorney General's office came into the small Pennsylvania town where the University is located to prosecute Jerry Sandusky.  Penn State University accepted Joe Paterno's early retirement.  A University commissioned report by former FBI Director Louis Freeh harshly condemned a number of Penn State officials.  Paterno and three other key officials "are portrayed as manipulating administrative channels to protect Sandusky, the football program and their own reputations."  [If Alaska is a model, Pennsylvanians should watch for the rehabilitation of Joe Paterno in the not too distant future.]


In Alaska, the FBI began a covert operation which video taped Bill Allen's hotel suite in Juneau as he entertained legislators and made deals with them trying to prevent tax changes that were not approved of by the oil companies.  Allen cooperated with the Justice Department and was a witness in a number of court cases where state legislators were convicted of various corruption charges.  He also was the key witness in the Stevens trial in DC, where Stevens was convicted as well.  Stevens lost his reelection bid shortly after, narrowly.   However, Obama's attorney general vacated Stevens' conviction because of prosecutorial misconduct.


In the meantime, a former oil company lobbyist is now the governor of Alaska.  And few see any problem with this. Can you imagine the outcry if the former lobbyist for Green Peace or Wilderness Society were governor?  Although the oil companies have been tarnished, their interests are still in power and they are spending money to maintain their sacred status,  aided in the upcoming election by the Citizens United decision. 

Oil plays an important role in the world.  Oil has brought Alaska wealth and benefits we could not have had otherwise.  But any faction that gains so much power and influence in any society or institution, begins eventually to feel entitled and gets harder and harder to keep accountable. 

The stifling of sacred cow challengers shows up in lots of places. 
  • Why weren’t people asking more questions about the home loan industry?  Or listening to those who did?  
  • Why didn’t parents believe their kids who said the priest molested them, of if the kids remained silent, why didn’t they question the kids’ different behavior?  
  • Why has it taken so long for the military to address the many psychological problems of soldiers returning from Iraq and Afghanistan?  Or take seriously the complaints of sexual harassment and assault by women in the military?  
  • Why do we continue to spend billions on the so called War on Drugs when it clearly is so ineffective? 

All of these issues involve sacred cows that people want to believe in and people resist those who challenge those beliefs.  They all involve people who benefited from silencing and marginalizing those who challenged the system.  All of them have wealthy interests funding misinformation campaigns to convince the public and the decision makers that there is no problem. 

This is nothing new in human history.  Ruling classes have brainwashed their subjects from the beginning.  Americans think they are different, yet large numbers of our populaltion succumb to empty slogans, and to appeals to their fears and insecurities. 

I think about Egyptians and Libyans and Russians and Syrians who see through their government’s lies and risk their lives to change things.  Americans are willing to sacrifice the lives and mental health of the relatively few Americans who serve in the military, but what are they personally willing to sacrifice? 

It turns out that not staying alert has cost people their homes, their savings, and their jobs.  It wasn't a voluntary sacrifice.  Rather,  enough people voted for those false slogans and put people into power whose faith in unbridled capitalism allowed bankers and traders to make fortunes on what turned out to be giant swindles.

We get another turn at bat in November.   The propagandists are already spinning their lies and spreading hate and fear to convince voters to forget the size of the catastrophe that Obama inherited and instead blame him for the fallout of the Bush2 administration. 

----------
While I was looking for a link to support a point I'd made, I found that Cliff Groh had already made the Paterno-Stevens comparison in November 2011.

Thursday, August 02, 2012

Hotel Booking Scam

I got this email today. Fortunately, I know I did not book a hotel for August 4-6 and I'm reasonably sure that opening the file will not reveal any information I want, but rather would be an attempt to mischief.
Subject:  Reservation Confirmation [1342976], Thu, 2 Aug 2012 09:47:18 +0800
From:  "Booking.com" <customer.service@my.booking.com>
Date:  Wed, August 1, 2012 5:47 pm
Priority:  Normal
Options: 
View Full Header |  View Printable Version  | Download this as a file  | View Message details | Report as Spam
Hotel Confirmation:   7395329
Date:   Thu, 2 Aug 2012 09:47:18 +0800
---
Herewith you receive the electronic reservation for your hotel. Please refer to attached file for full details.
Arrival: Saturday, August 04, 2012
Departure: Monday, August 06, 2012
Number of rooms: 1

Sincerely, Customer Service Team
Booking.com  http://www.XXXX
Your Reference ID is: 3225161
The Booking.com reservation service is free of charge. We do not charge you any booking fees or administration fees, and in many cases rooms offer free cancellation.-Booking.com guarantees the best hotel rates in both cities and regional destinations - ranging from small family hotels to luxury hotels.


Attachments:

What are some of the telltale signs of a scam?  This one is deceptively simple, but . . .

The email doesn't list a recipient, there's no  "To"
  • My name is not mentioned in the reservation
  • No hotel is mentioned in the reservation, though there is a legitimate website called My Booking, but there is an extra 'dot' in the email address listed
  • I have to open a file - a well known way to infect computers with whatever evil the spammer/hacker is sending

I'm sure there are other signs I'm missing*.  But  . . .


How many people will unthinkingly click on the attachment in attempt to clear up the confusion?
How many people have hotel reservations for August 4 who will open this?
If the world were a fair and equitable place, would there still be people who would need to disrupt other people's lives with stuff like this?


*There are lots of sites that offer advice on how to deal with email hoaxes and scams.  I even found one that let's you paste the email into window and they'll check if it's a known scam.  But you have to give them an email address.  I passed on that.

Here are a couple sites.  It's useful to check them now and then as a reminder, plus these things evolve and get more sophisticated.

Microsoft Office tips
Kansas State University - Email Threats
(Three years old, but still interesting)  Wired - Identify a Phishing Scam

[UPDATE: August 7:  MX Lab reported on July 31 that the linked zip file contained a trojan:
The attached ZIP file has the name Booking_Confirmation_073120123972991.zip and contains the 37 kB large file Booking_Confirmation_07312012.exe.
The trojan is known as W32/Falab.J2.gen!Eldorado, Trojan-Spy.Agent, Downloader.Dromedan or TROJ_KRYPTIK.NC.
At the time of writing, only 9 of the 41 AV engines did detect the trojan at Virus Total.
Virus Total permalink and SHA256: 78cca5db33888091d98854835d6ca80b77568d5f106a9d7739e7a3efa02df659.
Hmmm, I should have found that before I posted.]

Wednesday, August 01, 2012

Mary Louise Rasmuson Dies Monday at 101

I didn't know Mary Louise Rasmuson, but anyone who lives in Anchorage is directly impacted by the Rasmuson name.  My office at the university was in Rasmuson Hall.  The Anchorage Museum has Rasmuson in its name.  Of the 'old' Anchorage wealthy families, the Rasmuson family is the one that has established a major foundation that funds a large variety of people and causes.  The first time I knowingly was in the same room with Mary Louise Rasmuson was May 5 of this year when she was awarded a Meritorious Service Award from the University of Alaska Anchorage.  Here is my sketchy, from across the room, video tape of her response to receiving the award.




Here's the description for her UAA award.

Here's today's Anchorage Daily News article on Rasmuson.

Running with Eagles and Salmon

A 3.5 mile run from my house and back yesterday afternoon had me communing with three bald eagles (the other two were too far to catch on the camera)

A few minutes later, going over a Campbell Creek bridge there were salmon coming home to spawn. It's the red/orangish splotch in the lower middle of the photo. This is an untouched photo - no games in photoshop. Just the way the light was reflecting on the water.
Today it's raining again.

Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Hot? Take A Video Break At Ptarmigan Creek, Alaska

Last Tuesday we hiked up along Ptarmigan Creek to Ptarmigan Lake.   It was as beautiful as ever.  We saw some patches of blue in the sky.  The temperature was in the high 60's or low 70's.


Above is the lake at the end of the hike up.  (Actually the trail goes to the other end of the lake, but we stopped here.)

Here's some video of the creek at a point where the water rushes over some rocks.



 Here's another view of the creek.










The beginning of the trail has been made a bit too civilized for me.  









But it soon was back to the old trail.   




Although this is Ptarmigan Creek, we saw no ptarmigan.  But we did see a couple of spruce grouse hens with chicks.

We heard the flutter of wings as the chicks with this hen flew up to the tree.  Then the mother led us along the trail away from the chicks in the tree.  She'd stop to make sure I was following her, then she'd rush further down the path until she suddenly flew up into a tree.









The chicks.













At one point there was a cut off and this sign on a nearby tree.  Yes, the trail is Ptarmigan Creek Trail, but since the creek is below and you have to climb up to get to the lake, it's understandable that people might think this was the point.  It's good that someone added to the sign.   
Here the trail has  split from the creek and goes up along the side of the mountain and the trail gets even iffier here and there.  Here you can see brush crowding the trail with one of the peaks around the lake ahead coming into view. 

 

The trail was a bit overgrown.  We made a lot of noise to alert any nearby bears as we pushed through the cow parsnip to open the trail.  I don't know if any bears heard us, but we didn't see them.





There were lots of blue berries to eat along the way.

Polisse



We saw this wrenching French film tonight.  It follows a team of police in the Child Protection Unit as they deal with pedophiles, messed up kids, and their own difficult relationships in and out of the office.   I was exhausted at the end of the film and slightly disturbed.  It was powerful and I didn't think I could write much.  Maybe just a giant exclamation point.

I looked on line to get some background and found a Guardian review that pretty much blew it off:
There can hardly be an odder or more uncomfortable film this week than Maïwenn's Polisse, a drama with interesting moments, but also some false notes and a wildly bizarre ending.
 Whoa, this won the Jury Prize at Cannes in 2011.  I found another review.  This from  New York Times reviewer, A.O. Scott,  who loved it.  Maybe a little too uncritically.  As a film, it was good cinema.  As an accurate depiction of the Child Protection Unit in Paris?  I can't judge. It's supposed to be based on real cases.

Here's a video clip of what I understood to be a Muslim police officer grilling an Iman who is sending his underage daughter back to the home country to be married.  He doesn't take her seriously as she gets ever more angry, finally pulling out a Quran and demanding he show her where it says women shouldn't work, or that young daughters should be given away.


This is rough and powerful stuff and the officers have trouble dealing with it themselves. A lot of the movie is highly confrontational.

Monday, July 30, 2012

10,000 Hours - Gladwell's Outliers Part 1

One of the American truisms is that anyone can succeed if they work hard.  But the ones who make it to the top of the top both work hard and have a particular genius for their field.

Malcolm Gladwell, in his book Outliers, challenges this notion.  He doesn’t dispute the hard work part, but most ‘geniuses’ are, for him, just people who have put 10,000 hours into their craft, and then landed at the right place in the right time.

I heard about this book when it first came out in 2008, because the media covered an early chapter of the book which focused on Canadian hockey players.  The key to succeeding in hockey, it turned out, was not simply being the best hockey player, but rather being born in January, February, March, or April.  This is not because of astrology writes Gladwell,
“It’s simply that in Canada the eligibility cutoff for age-class hockey is January 1.  A boy who turns ten on January 2, then, could be playing alongside someone who doesn’t turn ten until the end of the year - and at that age, in preadolescence, a twelve-month gap in age represents and enormous difference in physical maturity.” (p. 33 - note that I found a large print book at the library so the pages are off from a regular print volume.)
The best of those kids get chosen to play in games two or even three times more often than their younger teammates and get better coaching.  And at the end of three years, with all that extra playtime and attention, they actually are better. 

A footnote explains this is a great example of a self-fulfilling prophecy:
 " . . .a situation where ‘a false definition, in the beginning  . .  evokes a new behavior which makes the original false conception come true.’  Canadians start with a false definition of who the best nine-  and ten-year-old hockey players are.  They’re just picking the oldest every year.  But the way they treat those ‘all-stars’ ends up making their original false judgment look correct.  As [sociologist Robert] Merton puts it: ‘This specious validity of the self-fulfilling prophecy perpetuates a reign of error.  For the prophet will cite the actual course of events as proof that he was right from the very beginning.'” (pp. 34-35)
 I'd heard this example discussed, thought it interesting, but was skeptical about the book because I'd formed a negative opinion (possibly erroneously) about Gladwell from an earlier book, The Tipping Point.  It seemed to make one good point repeatedly.  

But my book club is reading Outliers now, and so I've been giving Gladwell another look. 

So, the secret to success in Canadian hockey is ten thousand hours devoted to improving one's skills which certain boys are more likely to get because they were born in January, February, March, or April.  Again, those boys that don't work hard, aren't going to make it.  But equally talented boys who work just as hard, will be passed over because when they first qualify, they are competing with kids up to a year older than themselves.

He goes on to look at other 'geniuses' who had to get their ten thousand hours in so that they were ahead of the pack.  He writes about Bill Joy who Gladwell says is called the Edison of the Internet and about Bill Gates. He acknowledges both as exceptionally smart and hard working, but also ties their success to having had early access to computers - Joy at the University of Michigan which
 "had one of the most advanced computer science programs in the world. . .Joy came to the University of Michigan the year the Computer Center opened.  He was sixteen  he was tall and very thin, with a mop of unruly hair. . . late in his freshman year, he stumbled across the Computer Center - and he was hooked."(p. 50)
What was critical was that he was at a computer center that had time-sharing.
". . .when the programming bug hit him in his freshman year, he found himself - by the happiest of accidents - in one of the few places in the world where a seventeen-year-old could program all he wanted.
"Do you know what the difference is between the computing cards and time-sharing?"  Joy says.  "It's the difference between playing chess by mail and speed chess."  Programming wasn't an exercise in frustration any more.  It was fun."  (p. 65)
[I'd note when I took a FORTRAN class in the mid-70s at USC, we used cards.  You had to punch each card.  Then take them to be put in the machine.  Then wait for the printout to come.  That could take an hour or more.  Then if you had one card punched wrong, it wouldn't work and you had to find the bad card and redo it. So it could take over an hour to find out you missed a comma and another hour to run it again to make sure you caught the error, instead of getting instant feedback and and being able to type in the correction immediately and get instant feedback on your next try.] 

He got a job with a computer science professor and went on to Berkeley.
"There, he buried himself even deeper in the world of computer software.  During the oral exams for his PhD, he made up a particularly complicated algorithm on the fly that, as one of his many admirers has written, 'so stunned his examiners [that] one of them later compared the experience to 'Jesus confounding his elders' . . . Working in collaboration with a small group of programmers, Joy took on the task of rewriting UNIX, which was a software system developed by AT&T for mainframe computers.  Joy's version was very good.  It was so good, in fact, that it became - and remains - the operating system on which literally millions of computers around the world run."(p. 51)
 What was important for Joy was that he arrived at Michigan when they switched from computer cards to time sharing, one of the first universities to do that.  Gates had a similar stroke of luck.  The parents at his private school, Lakeside, arranged to buy a computer for a computer club.
It was an "amazing thing," of course, because this was 1968.  Most colleges didn't have computer clubs in the 1960s.  Even more remarkable was the kind of computer Lakeside bought.  The school didn't have its students learn programming by the laborious computer-card system, like virtually everyone else was doing in the 1960's.  Instead, Lakeside installed what was called an ASR-33 Teletype, which was a time-sharing terminal with a direct link to a mainframe computer in downtown Seattle. . .  Bill Joy got an extraordinary, early opportunity to learn programming on a time-share system as a freshman in college, in 1971.  Bill Gates got to do real-time programming as an eight grader in 1968. (p. 74)
 Gladwell goes on to argue that Joy and Gates, both unquestionably gifted, were able to achieve what they did, because they had very early access to fast and unlimited computer programming before most people.  They got their 10,000 hours in before anyone else.

So he's got hockey players and computer geeks getting ahead because of access that gets them their10,000 hours.  He cites a study of elite musicians.
The students who would end up the best in their class began to practice more than everyone else:  six hours a week by age nine, eight hours a week by age twelve, sixteen hours a week by age fourteen, and up and up, until by the age of twenty they were practicing - that i purposefully and single-mindedly playing their instruments with the intent to get better - well over thirty hours a week.  In fact, by the age of twenty, the elite performers had each totaled ten thousand hours of practice.  By contrast, the merely good students had totaled eight thousand hours, and the future music teachers had totaled just over four thousand hours. . . 
The striking think about Ericsson's study is that he and his colleagues couldn't find any "naturals," musicians who floated effortlessly to the top while practicing a fraction of the time their peers did.  Nor could they find any "grinds," people who worked harder than everyone else, yet just didn't have what it takes to break the top ranks.  Their research suggests that once a musician has enough ability to get into a top music school, the think that distinguishes one performer from another is how hard he or she works.  That's it.  And what's more, the people at the very top don't work just harder or even much harder than everyone else.  They work much, much harder. (pp. 55-56)
 He talks about the Beattles' apprenticing in Hamburg strip clubs where they worked non-stop, and in so doing, got their 10,000 hours.

What Gladwell is saying here is that hard work and talent aren't all you need.  Luck plays a big role.  You need access to your 10,000 hours - whether it's by being born in the right months to get enough playing time on your hockey team, or having access to a time-share computer before anyone else, or obsessing at your music lessons, or playing in clubs in Hamburg.  

I'll end this post here.  As the book continues, Gladwell looks at other situations where timing and cultural background and other factors make the difference between people who have talent and work hard and succeed and those who don't.

There's something about the way Gladwell puts all this together that seems a little too neat.  Has he gathered the data that supports his argument and left out other data that might raise doubts?  I don't know.  But in any case, it raises questions about how we know what we know, a topic dear to my heart, and central to this blog.  I'm optimistically calling this part 1. 

UPDATE:  Here are the other two posts on Outliers.