Obama or Clinton?

The US voters are making history with the Democrats virtually assured that either a man with African heritage or a woman will be their candidate for president. Tomorrow night is the Democratic caucus in Alaska. From what I hear, there will be a large turnout in Anchorage, possibly even stretching the capacity at Begich Middle School for the Anchorage caucus. But which candidate is the best? I've boiled this down for me to three criteria.



General Electability in November

Are Americans less racist or less sexist? Or put another way, are they more willing to vote for a man with African heritage or a woman? Blacks, with 9% of the seats in the House of Representatives reflect their 13% of the US population much better than do women with 16.1% in the House. But in the Senate, where whole states, not gerrymandered districts ,vote there is only one African-American - Barrack Obama - for 1%. But women have 16% of the 100 seats. That still means 84% men in the Senate and House.


[2/5/08: Added the missing decimal point Ropi pointed out in the comments. This post was postponed because I had trouble finding reliable numbers for blacks in Congress. That story is in the previous post. A good webstie for information on women in politics is Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University.]

David Broder has an interesting article on districts where women win.

The scholars could find no significant differences in terms of geography or social characteristics between those districts that elected African American men and African American women. Almost without exception, they were heavily Democratic, urban and working class.

But the picture is very different for white women running for Congress. "Female Democratic House members tend to win election in districts that are more liberal, more urban, more diverse, more educated and much wealthier than those won by male Democratic members of the House," they write. "They come from much more compact, 'tonier,' upscale districts than their male counterparts."

The fact that a woman and a man of African heritage are the finalists for the Democratic nomination says a lot about the changing demographics of the United States. I we are in a period of flux - the old rules are starting to dissolve, but I don’t know that the new rules are in place yet either. Will enough voters ignore gender and race to elect and man of African heritage or a woman as president?

Stand on Key Issues

I don’t think they are too far off on the issues, though Obama focuses on the fact that he never supported going into Iraq and Clinton did. But it isn't simply the issues we face now, but the issues that the President will face once in office - the 9/11's and Hurricane Katrina's that weren't anticipated. Which candidate has the imagination to find better ways to do things?

Ability to get things done

No matter how great their policies are, without the competence to get them through Congress, they have nothing.

Hillary Clinton surely has learned a lot of lessons in the eight years Bill was President. As a former first lady and second term Senator she knows a lot of people both in the US and overseas. Of all these people, how much does she owe them and how much do they owe her? More particularly, which people does she owe? The Clintons also have a high negative rating among a sizable minority of people. This could cause the kind of constant sniping Bill Clinton faced during his eith years. These are people who will always be trouble. On the other hand, Bush has much higher negatives and has managed to get his way a lot of the time.

Barrack Obama has less experience and presumably fewer connections, and fewer people he owes. He is inspirational, but you also need administrative mechanics to make things happen. His campaign shows that he is able to attract competent people to help. Obama is able to articulate people's hopes for a better way. That can be powerful for a while, but then some tangible things need to be achieved.

Either of the two will have to attract competent teams to develop good policies and to get them passed by Congress. It seems to me that Clinton’s strength and weakness here are her connections to the existing power structure. Obama’s strength and weakness are that he has fewer of the ties and can take us in a new direction.

May the best...candidate... win.

How Many Black Congress Members?

[This info was updated Dec. 21 2012 - How Many Black Members In 113th Congress?] 

[Dec. 2, 2008 Update: Here's an update to the chart and this post.]

The quick answer appears to be 40 voting members and 2 non-voting members in the House of Representatives and 1 US Senator (Obama.). But I'm not completely sure.

You'd think this would be easy to find on the web. Someone should have a quck number. David D. Kirkpatrick wrote in December 2005

The number of blacks in Congress has grown to 43 from just 13 at the founding of the Congressional Black Caucus in 1969. But although the 2006 election elevated some caucus members to prominence, it did not add to the group's numbers. Its 43 members still make up less than 10 percent of the House and 1 percent of the Senate. By comparison, blacks make up about 13 percent of the population.

Encarta and Wikipedia both have tables of all the Black congress members ever. You have to go through the lists and separate out those whose dates of service (for Wikipedia) end in -present or (for Encarta) - . EthnicMajority has 42, but two are non-voting and one is dead.

But the two lists don't match. Wikipedia has five more people than Encarta. The Congressional Black Caucus website lists 43 people in the Black Caucus, but that includes Senator Obama (the only black Senator), two non-voting members (DC and Virgin Islands), and one deceased whose seat apparently won't be filled until the November 2008 election.

Going through the three lists (Encarta, Wikipedia, Black Caucus) I've come up with a total of 40 black voting members members of Congress. (DC and the Virgin Islands each have one non-voting black member. ) It's quite possible I missed one or added one. I'm not sure quite what it means that this number is not readily available. Below is the chart I came up with.

[August 20, 2008 - Stephanie Tubbs Jones suffered an aneurism and passed away today]

Mauer's Thorough Piece On Allen Rumors

I'm leaving for Thailand Friday and I've got to let go of some of this compulsive blogging, but I did mention the Hopfinger/Coyne article in the Press the other day. It was first. But Rich Mauer's piece in today's ADN is a much more solid and informative report. Mauer did find a Fed who could say that they had asked the APD to drop the investigation.

[US Attorney Frank] Russo acknowledged "there were allegations along the lines of his (Allen's) involvement with Bambi Tyree," but said he asked Vandegriff to suspend the Allen investigation for purely practical reasons: The Boehm case was complex, with dozens of witnesses, and Boehm himself had a high-powered, three-attorney defense team that fought at every opportunity. Nearly 1,000 documents were filed, and that was in a case that never went to trial.

"We said, 'Hey, why don't we put this aside until later. We have enough to focus on,' " Russo said. That was his only concern, he said.

I realize that people's sexual behavior is an ever surprising revelation and that we should never dismiss things as impossible (how long did people not believe stories about priests?), but if I had to bet, I'd put my money on the story that says Allen was Tyree's friend and he felt obligated to watch over Tyree's kids after Tyree died. That's consistent with with the man I saw testify in the Kott and Kohring trials.

I could be wrong here, but I think this story line isn't going anywhere. But the article is important in that it fills in a lot of gaps that people were filling in with all sorts of speculation.

10 Below

I was all ready to run early this morning. The sun wasn't over the mountain yet, but it was light. But I foolishly checked the thermometer. And the storm door was covered in ice crystals. Maybe if it gets up to five I might go run. After three days in a row in LA, I'm itching to be out moving again.

[The details are better if you click on the picture.]

The Noodle Shop is now Yak and Yeti

[UPDATE June 2012:  Yak and Yeti now has a satellite fast food like place in the REI/Title Wave Mall. The Spenard store is still open too.]

The Spenard building that housed the old Korean Noodle Shop, a wonderful place to go, that closed a year or two ago now hosts Yak and Yeti, a new Himalayan restaurant that the ADN has already reviewed. Last night some of the Returned Peace Corps Volunteer in Anchorage met there for dinner. It's been nicely redecorated, the service was cordial, and the food good. We were warned to get there early (5pm). Good advice because by 6pm there were ten or 15 people waiting to be seated. Since we were taking up that much room ourselves, we left a little earlier than we would have.

Evening Sky Out of LA

A couple of views out the window before it got dark Friday.

Mom's January flowers

LA may have looked so ungreen when I flew in because it is ...January and lots of the trees are pretty naked. One forgets that about LA because there are so many other trees and bushes that don't lose their leaves. here's a sample or what's blooming in my mother's yard right now

Eating Indian and Bosnian in LA

I've meshed two pictures of my mom at Pradeep's Indian restaurant in a two story strip mall on Washington near Marina Del Rey. It was nice to sit out in the sun, though even with the glass shield, the breeze was a little chilly by the end of lunch. That was Wednesday.

Friday, on the way to the airport, we went to a Bosnian restaurant in another strip mall, this time on Overland near Pico. I'd found it on a blog that highlights good, interesting, little restaurants in LA.




I don't recall ever eating at a Bosnian restaurant call Aroma and it wasn't until last night at SeaTac with eating with my daughter and telling her about the Bosnian immigrant picture I'd posted that I began to wonder whether my brain had perked up at "Bosnian" because of the picture and description I'd read and posted. Any way, it was very good. And we were snuggled into a little corner with nice warming sun as a group of men nearby had a very animated conversation in what I assumed was one of Bosnia's languages. I had the Burek, sort of like a calzone made of phylo dough. Mine had spinach inside. I took one to go for my daughter.



And this doesn't really fit anywhere better than it does here. But at the 99¢ Store, they've kept all the prices at 99¢. But now instead of a dozen eggs for 99¢, you get half a dozen according to my mom.

Venice Beach Spiritual Center

This center is free. Well, if you drive you have to pay to park. But for walkers and bikers there's no charge.

This is one of the places I go in the world to remind me who I am and to get reconnected with the earth. Along this strip of California beach I learned the rhythms of the ocean and spent much of my childhood and young adulthood. The power of the these waves has as much hold on me as the mountains and forests of Alaska.

Run to Venice Beach

Just about two miles from my mom's house is Venice Beach. So here's the halfway point of my run down Rose to the beach. It's early Friday morning so all the hustle and bustle of Venice Beach - the booths, the bikes and skaters, not yet there. The rest are pictures as I complete the return trip.






This funky old neighborhood right up against one of the world great beaches - lots of sand, good surf - is still a mix of all kinds of income groups. The buildings are still mostly old. I think this neighborhood shows the positive effects of Prop 13 which froze property taxes back in 1977. While the freeze seems to have hurt infrastructure, the University, and other public programs and caused real disparity issues between people who have lived in their homes a long time and newer buyers, here it seems to have allowed people of modest means to stay in their homes while the value of their coastal property soared. If they hadn't had the freeze, many of the people here would not have been able to afford the proerty taxes as land values so close to the beach went way up.








The values have tempted a lot of people to sell and there are lots of fixed up places and totally torn down and rebuilt places. And Main Street has become a pricy shopping spot.







But the people I pass are not wealthy people by a long shot. But they do live near the beach which is a spiritual wealth. Many beach communities have no place for the people who live here and that, I think, is a positive by product of Prop. 13. I was running and I didn't feel right taking pictures of the many colorful looking folks, so you'll just have to imagine.


This new condo sign caught my eye. I'm 90% sure this is where the Pioneer Bakery used to be. There was agreat little shop that sold wonderful bread here at reasonable prices, but it was a small part of the bakery that used baked bread for the whole Pioneer Bread Company and it always smelled good here. This should be called the Pioneer Condos and they should have a little bakery - including the aroma of fresh bread - on the grounds.

[UPDATE Feb. 2012:  Here are the condos, four years later, finally getting built.

 Not sure what happened to these photos, I'll have to see if I can find them.  If not I'll delete them.]






A lot of places have just been spiffed up like this one, but the building is still relatively modest by Southern California beach standards.



Now I'm passed Lincoln and nod to this lady caring for her garden as I did the last two days and whenever I'm visiting my mom.






This whole area was swamp when I was growing up here. Just small dirt hills, among wetlands with opportunities limited only by our imaginations. In fact, Rose didn't go through then. Now it's a public golf course - certainly much better than more houses - and relatively ordinary people play golf here.




And now I'm close to Walgrove and almost home. I love the smell of the eucalyptus trees here. I've got a little bowl of leaves at home that I can sniff whenever I need a quick trip to LA.