Watching The Pieces On The Chess Board: Climate Change, Ukraine, Oil Prices, Putin Support of Asad, Greek Debt, Refugee Crisis

Let's start with this LA Times headline Tuesday:

"A crisis of unity exposed in EU" 

In the last couple of weeks I've been thinking about how Europe's influx of refugees is causing great disruption in Europe not to mention the horrors that are causing the refugees to leave their homes.  But there's one clear winner - Russia, of course.  A united Europe is not good for Putin's ambitions.

As I see this, we get news about the world in fragments, and often that's how they stay in our brain - fragmented.  But everything is related to everything.  So this post is a way for me to try to connect in my own head a lot of these fragments.    And I'm sure I'm missing a lot, but let's look at some of the moves on the chess board.


1.  Russia's march into the Crimea made for daily headlines such as this back in spring 2014.

2.  Western reaction was strong and included sanctions.   

3.  Sanctions against Russia caused Putin to retaliate including threats to Europe's natural gas supply.

4.   EU stands firm on sanctions.

5.  And don't forget Russia's offer to help Greece with its debt to the rest of the EU.

6.  Meanwhile, the Syrian civil war expands as ISIS comes in.  And Russia continues its support of Syria's Asad.


7.  The Saudis, unhappy with Russia's support of Asad,  have increased oil production, which led to lower oil prices.  Since oil is critical to Russia's economy, the Saudis were hoping the economic impact would lead Russia to drop support of Asad, according to the New York Times.









 8. Back to the  Los Angeles Times headline  that I began with:

A crisis of unity exposed in EU

Some of the 28-nation bloc’s key initiatives are in jeopardy amid deep discord over the influx of refugees.

BY HENRY CHU

   LONDON — Just three years ago, the European Union basked in the glory of a Nobel Peace Prize and boasted of being a tight-knit community bound by “European values” of democracy, diversity and dignity.    By its own measure, the 28-nation club is now looking decidedly less European and even less a union these days as it grapples with the continent’s biggest refugee crisis since World War II.. .

So, if millions of Syrian (and other) refugees flood into Europe, critical parts of the European unity get tested.  Schengen - the agreement that eliminated stops at border crossings between most European countries - has been one of the most important symbols of the EU's unity.  And now Hungary's building of a border wall to block the refugees, raises question about Schengen.  Croatia has only applied to be a Schengen member so it isn't a breach of Schengen yet. But now Austria is talking about closing its borders with Hungary, which would be a breach. 

Another symbol of that unity is the Euro which came into crisis with the Greek debt showdown.  And the Russians offered to support Greece against the rest of Europe.

If, in fact, the refugees help break down the European Union, then Russia's European opposition is much weaker economically and militarily and Putin would have much more freedom to treat his people and neighbors as he pleases.   


Abdul Jalil Al-Marhoun  argues that Russia's key goal in Syria is access to the Mediterranean Sea.  While a port in Syria would be a useful base, he argues, it's not essential.  A weaker Europe would make securing this route much easier.  Especially through the narrow strait by Istanbul.

Click to enlarge and focus - map from Wikipedia

The map shows the Black Sea geography.  Russia has a major naval base in Sevastopol which it leased from the Ukraine for, according to a state sponsored  Russia Today article: 

"$526.5 million for the base, as well as writing off $97.75 million of Kiev’s debt."  

After the takeover, that agreement was voided by the Duma.  That's over half a billion savings for Russia and loss for Ukraine.  A Center for Strategic and International Studies article describes the strategic benefits to Russia of this naval base.


Life is much simpler when the news anchors just say "the good guys" and "the bad guys" and that's all you have to know.   And when news is made up of discrete unrelated incidents of video violence.  News is merely entertainment - real life examples of action movies.  But it doesn't help us understand how and why things are happening.  For that you have to think like a chess player - each move is about the position of all the pieces and where they will be three or four or five moves hence.   Certainly Putin, head of a nation of chess players, has in mind strategy such as this offered by the United States Chess Federation:

"When you are considering a move, ask yourself these questions:

• Will the piece I'm moving go to a better square than the one it's on now? 
• Can I improve my position even more by increasing the effectiveness of a different piece? 
• Will the piece I move be safe on its new square?  
• If it's a pawn, consider: Can I keep it protected from attack? 
• If it's another piece, consider: Can the enemy drive it away, thus making me lose valuable time?

Even if your intended move has good points, it may not be the best move at that moment. Emanuel Lasker, a former world champion, said: "When you see a good move, wait---look for a better one!" Following this advice is bound to improve your chess." 

Maybe American schools should start teaching chess so American students can learn to think about the long term implications of their actions.


Oh yes, climate change.  How does that fit in here?  From Scientific American:

"Drying and drought in Syria from 2006 to 2011—the worst on record there—destroyed agriculture, causing many farm families to migrate to cities. The influx added to social stresses already created by refugees pouring in from the war in Iraq, explains Richard Seager, a climate scientist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory who co-authored the study. The drought also pushed up food prices, aggravating poverty. “We’re not saying the drought caused the war,” Seager said. 'We’re saying that added to all the other stressors, it helped kick things over the threshold into open conflict. And a drought of that severity was made much more likely by the ongoing human-driven drying of that region.'”

Chuitna River DNR Hearing - Two Different World Views Colliding

There's no wifi in the room so I'm doing this quick during a lunch break (early because they'd allocated more time than people used) but I have to get back from the Federal Building cafeteria where they do have wifi.

I've got lots to sort through.  Lots of learning as I listen to testimony that seems to be coming from inhabitants of totally different planets.  Their views on this are based on completely different world views and assumptions.  More later.  I'll get pics up for now.  Above you can see the DNR table that's listening and asking questions.

Across from them is the spot for people giving testimony.  This is Valerie Brown from Trustees for Alaska at the podium.

During a break - Dave Schade on the right standing up.

This is the Pac Rim attorney - Eric [Fjelstad].  I didn't catch his last name clear enough to try to write it here.

Gotta get back to the room.  There's a tunnel under the street so you don't have to go through security again.  More later. 

Oil Addiction Prevents Alaskan Politicians From Making Good Decisions

Image Screenshot from Video In 2010 Post

Most people don't change their habits unless they have to.

Alaska politicians (and the people who elect them) have been addicted to easy oil money for the past forty years.  The cozy relationship between some of our politicians (i.e.  ex-governor Parnell was a Conoco-Phillips lobbyist (literally, not just figuratively) and two sitting senators are also oil company employees and others get lots of support and advice from the industry) doesn't hurt either.

So our Republican dominated state government (for the last ten years or so) has spent that money like giddy lottery winners.  They didn't listen to warnings of eventual declines in oil revenues from ISER over the years.  It's true, though, that new technologies allowed for oil extraction longer than originally expected and increasing oil prices kept the revenues up even when production started dipping, letting politicians ignore the economists' warnings.

But the politicians in power positions made no serious plans to find alternative revenues or cut spending.  And because oil so dominated the economy, other traditional sources such as timber or tourism would never come close to what oil has brought in.  And as Republicans, they kept new taxes off the table.  And since none of them have the vision,  the guts, or the charisma to inspire the public to new thinking,  they've avoided the idea of tapping the Alaska Permanent Fund for what it was originally intended to do:  supplement the budget when the oil money runs out.  Nor have they been willing to broach reestablishing a state income tax.

And now the oil is hitting the fan.  The oil price decline plus Republican led tax giveaways to the oil companies have put our state budget into crisis.  Instead of planning for the day when oil revenues would no longer pay all the bills like rational, intelligent people do, they've continued to spend until their fingers come up empty when they stick their hands into the state coffers, at least the ones that don't have special locks on them like the Permanent Fund and budget reserve funds. 

OK, some will complain I'm being partisan here picking on Republicans and letting Democrats off the hook.  Democrats certainly have challenged the big tax breaks the Republican majority gave oil companies, but after redistricting, they no longer had the votes to block them.  And even the public was there, losing a ballot initiative to restore the tax by only 4% despite huge oil company spending on the election. And the Democrats have challenged big capital projects like the Susitna Dam and the Knik Arm bridge.  I don't know that Democrats have been particularly better about leading the way to use the Permanent Fund as a trust fund to help support our budget.

But the fact is that Republicans have been in power - both in the legislature and the governorship - and thus we got to our current dilemma on their watch.  So naming Republicans isn't partisanship, it's factual.

All these thoughts came pouring out of my head after reading an AP piece on the impacts of the low cost of energy  in today's ADN.  Oil and coal and natural gas company stock is down, down, down.  And Alaskan's have known for the last year or so that our stock is way down too.  But it didn't have to be if we had looked beyond the short term and prepared.  But we were drunk on oil money and we weren't forced to.


And just the other day we learned that Sen. Murkowski worked to get Alaska exempted from new EPA rules on energy companies that would require them to lower their carbon emissions. 

I get the short term impacts this will have on rural Alaska.  But the actions they would be forced to take would help wean them off the expensive fuels they've continually been using.  And there are Alaskan locations - like Kodiak and villages around the state - who are already breaking their addiction and finding alternative energy sources. Instead, most places, especially in the Capitol building in Juneau, have continued feeding their and our addiction. 

Some addicts just spiral down into self destruction.  Others break from their destructive ways and learn new, healthier habits.  It's what Alaskans need to do.  And we need politicians who have vision and can inspire Alaskans to break from the unsustainable easy way, to the harder but ultimately necessary path.

We are a state of welfare recipients, getting our state budget funded by oil taxes and the federal government, not to mention the actual individual cash Permanent Fund dividend payouts.  We need to think like the wealthy people we still are -  our Permanent Fund has $52 billion and the constitutional budget reserves has another $10 billion - and use the income of our wealth in a responsible way as others have proposed.  We need to supplement that with some sort of taxes - yes, pay our own way, not rely on others to subsidize our schools, state parks, roads, police, health care.  Let's start being healthy, responsible adults. 

"For the tomatoes, the clock is ticking" And Other Inspiring Stories From Fledge

Fledge is an accelerator for startups that not only hope to make money, but also to make the world a better place.  I need to say right at the beginning, that I'm related to the creator of Fledge through marriage.  But I think if you look at these videos, you can see for yourself what a great concept it is and how well it's being executed.

A few startups are chosen for each session.  They're given $20,000 and six weeks of extensive training on how to make their business work.  All aspects from financing to marketing to production to human resources.  The fledgelings get mentors and get to meet with investors.  At the end of the six [10] weeks, they have Fledge Demo Day, which was last week in Seattle.  The videos are from Demo Day. I got to go to the first Fledge Demo day about 18 months ago.  It was an exciting event. 

This round's fledgelings are all international - from Africa and Argentina.  I'm particularly impressed by this group because the entrepreneurs are all local folks, not foreigners, who have already started businesses and they'll return to grow those companies.  Several of them talk about how they came to see the problems they're solving as children, watching their moms and grandmothers getting sick from the charcoal fires they cooked on every day.  Or, in another case, how Mom could only cultivate two of her ten acres because she couldn't afford to plant the rest of the land. 



Tom Osborn  Kenya Green Char

Tom is concerned about the health and financial costs of charcoal stoves in Kenya.  And charcoal requires the cutting of 125,000 acres of trees per year.  His answer is to make charcoal from sugar cane waste.  The charcoal is the traditional cooking heating material in his country.  His sugar cane charcoal has no smoke, is cheaper than traditional charcoal, burns longer, and provides jobs for women who act as distributors.  It also, of course, recycles the sugar cane wastes and leaves all those trees standing.




Sebastian Sajoux - Argentina, ArqLite  (the links go to the Youtube vidoes - or you can just let each one take you to the next)

Has a process to turn non-recyclable plastic into little rocks that can be used make concrete.  It produces a cement that is lighter, better thermal insulation, and quieter than traditional cement and also gets rid of the plastic that would go to landfills. 


Paul Nyambe - Zambia - Zamgoat

Buying goats from villagers and getting them to market where there is a big demand for goat meat.  This gives remote villagers extra money for something they already do and meets a demand for goat meat.


Femi Oye - Nigeria  SME Funds, Go Solar Africa, Green Energy Bio Fuel and Cooking Stove

Femi has several companies to bring cleaner, cheaper, and more reliable energy to Nigeria.  There's the alcohol based cooking fuel made of agricultural wastes and the solar panels.

David Opio - Uganda - Ensibuuko 'Germinate'

This is a financial tool - Mobis - that helps SACCO's (cooperative banking groups in Uganda) be more accountable and gives customers access to their accounts on their cell phones.

Nnaemeka Ikegwuonu   Nigeria Cold Hubs

Nnaemeka tells the story "For the tomatoes, the clock is ticking."  He traces the path of the tomatoes from Chibueze's farm, to Eugene's truck, to Alex's stand at the market.  He shows how many tomatoes - about 40% - have to be thrown away because they spoil in the Nigerian heat.  His solution is a solar powered refrigerator.

The market can be the solution to a lot of problems.  An entrepreneur who doesn't pay attention to the needs of the customers won't succeed.  But the market model doesn't require business owners to  pay attention to the needs of the community, or to people's health,  or to the environment's health.  These companies do that. 

Low Tech Drying

Maybe it's because we never had a dryer at home.  For me hanging up the clothes to dry is restful - even when it's inside.

The clothespin and a line is such a simple design.  And with the low winter humidity inside Anchorage homes, the clothes  dry quickly. I like to think that it helps the humidity, but I'm sure only negligibly.

The simple dollar website cites about 3.3 kilowatt hours per load.  And Municipal Light and Power says 1 kw hour costs me 5.6 ₵.   So I'm not doing it for the money since it only saves about 17₵  per load, and reduces my carbon footprint slightly.  But if one million other folks did the same it would have an impact.

Mindless tasks you can do without thinking let the brain relax and wander, and they're a good break from more concentrated brain work.

I don't want to give the impression I always use the clothesline.  But I feel better when I do.

Yarn Or Tea Emergency?

So, it did snow overnight.  More of a dusting really (see picture below).  But then sometime between 9 and 10 am or so, the power went off.  It's only just gone back on.  About four hours.  It stayed reasonably comfortable inside, but outside, near 30˚F, with a gusty wind, it was downright chilly.  And most places downtown were closed.  The bakery had baked goods for sale, but just water to drink.  The knit shop had the sign above.   A nearby eating place had a sign saying they'd be open again "at the convenience of Puget Sound Power."

TayaSola Update: Moving On To Make And Sell Products In Kenya

In April of this year, I posted about a startup company that wanted to produce little solar light kits that could be used by Kenyans who had no electricity.  The company, TayaSola, wanted to use the kits to teach kids about solar energy and give them a way to escape from dependence on dangerous kerosene lanterns.

Alma, the CEO of TayaSola, went to Indiegogo - a site similar to Kickstarter, but the fundraisers get to keep the money pledged even if they don't reach the goal.

Alma Lorraine Bone Constable

Here's a Christmas note I received, as an Indiegogo contributor, from Alma today:

Merry Christmas to all our wonderful supporters.

It has been an incredible year for TayaSola, starting with your generous support. The love, suggestions, and support that you have shown is deeply appreciated. 

In addition, as a result of this campaign, we received a large private investment allowing us to continue the design work on our light and start on the solar cell phone charger. We were also able to secure a contract with Boardwalk to help us bring a US product to market.

Through your help, Autodesk invited us to join their Clean Tech program supporting clean tech innovators. We attended Autodesk University in December learning from leaders in our industry.  Stay tuned for more news regarding or partnership with Autodesk.

We have secured a distributor in Kenya T&P Innovation and Technology Management Services (TAPITEMS) Ltd in Nairobi.

We are on track to deliver all your perks on time. Thank you again for your support.

Have a joyous holiday season. May the blessings of the season grace each of you and your families.

 I'm hoping this will continue to be a great story. 

Today's Apartheids

Intro

1. The Anchorage International Film Festival is getting all my attention this week, at least here on the blog, and I haven't commented on other important issues or events.  I think good art (even bad art)  tells us about everything that's important, so covering the festival isn't trivial, but still I feel pulled in different directions.
2. This blog covers a wide array of topics, because, as I told someone this week, "everything is related."  And I hope that's clear below

The Boycott

The Boycott of South Africa is getting lots of attention this week in the wake of all the memorials for Nelson Mandela.  But at the time a boycott was considered completely radical, anti-business, anti-American, harmful to the US economy, and it wouldn't have the desired effect anyway.

People knew that Aparteid was fundamentally wrong and they persisted - mainly younger folks who got their universities to divest from companies doing business in South Africa.  Legislation was passed and the conservatives' hero Ronald Reagan vetoed it.  But the Boycott movement had worked hard and effectively and Reagan's veto was overridden.  

Why Divest?

The basic point is that companies should not be making money by supporting oppression or other things that cause serious harm to humans or to the planet they live on.   We have laws against prostitution and drugs basically for the same reason - some moral values trumps the capitalist goal of making as much money as possible.  Even conservatives in the US have pushed hard to get a boycott against doing business with Iran and in Alaska very conservative legislators wanted to divest the state's funds - like the Permanent Fund - of companies doing business with Iran.

The underlying principle is that we value certain things above money.  Slavery was abolished even though it hurt slave owners economically (not to mention morally and spiritually.)

Corporations' appropriate goals, according to an old Michigan Supreme Court decision and supported by Milton Friedman, and quite probably today's US Supreme Court, but challenged by others, is to maximize shareholder profit.

They do this by taking resources and creating products or services they can sell.  Degradation of the environment - so long as it doesn't hurt their bottom line - is acceptable.  Exploitation of workers is not an issue as long as it doesn't hurt their bottom line.  The same with exploiting customers.  (Think banking late fees and punishing interest rates or airline fees for changing reservations.  Think of 'pre-existing conditions' clauses in health insurance policies. Think the housing crisis.)

When companies make big profits while violating more important human values, they have to pay their employees well to keep them doing their damaging work.  'Well' is a relative term.  They don't have to pay much to get very poor people to work, even in jobs that put the employees at risk.  Much higher salaries and benefits than the prevailing salaries get professionals to sell their souls for morally questionable business. 

We know that people are able to believe any stories that justify their right to get what they want, even when it is morally reprehensible.  German soldiers justified their work at concentration camps with stories of Jews undermining pure German culture.  Slaveowners used the bible and their beliefs that Africans werea lesser form of human.  Roosevelt allowed internment camps for Japanese-Americans because American prejudices saw them as threats to our security.  Communists tolerated, at first, Stalin's purges because they were necessary for the revolution.  Civil Rights leaders discriminated against women in their movement. Often short term benefits and costs are cited as trumping long term and uncertain benefits. 

Today's Apartheids

In hindsight, it's relatively easy to see who was right and who was wrong (though there are still Nazis in Germany and white supremacists in the US.)   To figure out where action needs to be taken today, we should look at situations where important values are being compromised  to make money.

1.  Future human survival as global climate change causes more severe weather events, shifts in geographic ranges of flora and fauna leading to diseases to spread to new areas and crop destabilization and drought.  Those are just a few of the impacts we are already starting to see. 

Fighting this with the same sort of arguments used to fight the Aparteid boycotts are the biggest traditional energy corporations - mainly oil, gas, and coal.  Alternative energy sources can't fill our energy needs, they tell us.  Business would be crippled.  If we don't produce these fuels, others will.  And, by the way, there is no such thing as global warming, and if there were, it wouldn't be caused by humans, just natural climate cycles.  In Alaska, their well paid employees, somehow justify their contribution to the future degradation of the planet, by buying into those specious arguments    When we have public  hearings on oil taxes in Alaska, nearly all the people testifying for the oil companies are people working for the industry, claiming their livelihoods and standard of living would be gone if the oil companies were taxed at current levels. The standard of living of the next generation must take care of itself is the implication. 

2.  Privatization and Chemicalization of Our Food.   Large corporations destroy our long term food growing environments through factory agriculture - high fertilizer and pesticide use - in the name of shareholder profit.  They systematically destroy small local farmers, introduce GMO food, and fight against labeling because GMO's are perfectly safe and labeling them would harm their business.  And patent seeds to gain a monopoly on food. 

3  Continued Manufacture and Profiting From Weapons.  Why are we responsible to bring peace around the world?  As humans, we have an obligation to help those who can't help themselves.  We help babies and children, we help victims of storms and earthquakes, it's a basic value of every religion.  But there's yet another reason - much of the death around the world is caused by weapons manufactured by the US and other nations, for war and acquired by anyone with money and connections.  If Second Amendment extremists feel they need protection, then we need to raise a society where people have fulfilling lives and don't need to steal from others to live decently.  And then if people persist with personal arsenals, we can give them the mental health care they obviously need. 

4.  Corporatized media, used not as watchdogs, but as attack dogs.  Our ability to know about and understand how well or poorly governments, corporations, and other institutions of great power operate, is dependent on getting accurate information about their performance.  It also requires an ability to understand what they report.  So education that raises free and thinking citizens needs to replace education that produces obedient consumers and employees.  Instead our media and corporate culture distract us from the real problems with sports, celebrities, and other trivia. Even movies, some, but not all.  Not film festival movies.:)


Everything is Related

American consumerism fuels our need for oil that is destroying our environment and making the pursuit of money or credit our paramount reason for living.  Our failures to earn enough to feed this insatiable consumption leads to crime, addictions (besides consumption), family break ups, and the justification to work for companies and industries we should all be boycotting.  It's all related.


And the film festival gives us a different way to see how these things interact.  Films take us into the lives of people we otherwise would never know.  Here is a list of just a few films at the festival that raise the issues to greater or lesser degrees.  All give us one more piece of the puzzle to understand the interconnections among us all.  OK, I realize that each of us will see these movies with our own filters and many will come away with far different conclusions than do I.

• Tales of the Organ Trade looks at the illegal buying and selling of human kidneys. 
• Fatigued was filmed by soldiers in Afghanistan who told us they were there for different reasons, but mostly to get things like health insurance or to escape unemployment and poverty. All they could think about, they tell us, is  'getting out of this shithole and back home." (I'm not sure what message they intended to send, but I was closer in reaction to a contractor quoted in the movie, "They are a bunch of whiners."  But the movie didn't mention the huge disparity in pay between the soldiers and the contract employees which allowed this contractor to pay off her house, car, and all other debts.)  
• Gold Star Children talked about the tens of thousands of US children who have lost a parent in the Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan wars, and how little attention is given to their huge losses.  
• Lion Ark looks at the mistreatment of animals in illegal Bolivian circuses and the rescue of 27 lions.   
• We Can't Eat Gold - looks at the tradeoff between the Pebble Mine and the great salmon runs.
•  Not By Sight - looks at how one woman's group takes offshore oil to task.
• Backyard - looks at how the world view of a conservative couple was changed when their neighborhood was fracked. 
• De Nieuwe Wereld (The New World) looks at one tiny part of the human disruption caused by economic exploitation and the arms industry, by looking at asylum seekers in a detention center in Amsterdam.
• Detroit Unleaded shows us the deadening life running a gas station/store in a high crime neighborhood in Detroit. 
• Everything Is Fine Here - shows us the impact of rape on a young Iranian woman. 

We will never have perfect, problem-free societies.  But I believe we can do significantly better than what we have now.  Go see a movie at the film festival - not to be distracted from the world's problems - but to be energized into taking them on. 

Murkowski Shows Some Backbone On Obamacaricide, At Least On Energy Bill

I need to give credit to one of my US Senators, Republican Lisa Murkowski, for calling out her colleagues for blocking legislation with amendments intended to kill or maim Obamacare. 

In this case Murkowski seems to be upset about amendments to kill the Affordable Care Act added onto an energy bill to require the government to be more energy efficient and require more energy efficient building codes.  I suspect some of this the Obama administration could and would do without legislation.

I don't want to make too big a deal about this because her voting record on the government funding bills appears to be less daring.  Looking at her voting record for the last week, it appears she voted the Republican Party line on the government shut down.  The key vote that was not split on party lines was the 79-19 vote to end Sen. Cruz's filibuster.    Murkowski voted with the 79 to end the filibuster.  That vote allowed the Democrats to pass an amendment to cut out the House attempts to kill the Affordable Care Act and then to pass the Senate  bill to keep the government running. (Which the House then rejected.)  Those last two votes were split on party lines too. (Does that mean that all but 19 Republicans really wanted the government funding to pass so they helped end the filibuster to give the Democrats the room to pass it, but they didn't want their constituents see a yes vote on the actual bill?)


From The Hill:

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) on Wednesday called out Republicans who tried to pile ObamaCare amendments onto bipartisan energy efficiency legislation that recently stalled on the Senate floor.

“What we need to reckon with is the fact that you have got a process that is being used for political advantage and gain rather than to advance policy,” she said.

Of course, if they are willing to shut down the whole government to kill Obama's health reform, a little energy bill is no big deal to them.  

“Maybe we need to embarrass those in the leadership that it is high time that you focus on the policy side of this,” Murkowski said at an energy forum hosted by the group Center Forward.

She expressed hope that, if the bill returns to the floor, an agreement could be struck that only allowed energy-related amendments. .  .

While Murkowski criticized efforts to link the bill to ObamaCare, she predicted that if it hadn’t been for those amendments, there would have been others that Reid found “equally onerous” and given him “cause to pause.”

The underlying energy bill contains measures to encourage better building codes, train workers in energy efficient building technologies, help manufacturers become more efficient and bolster efficiency in federal buildings."

Here's a link to the whole piece, "Sen Murkowski Calls Out Her Party For Energy Riders."

Hell's Gate Tram - Hiking Down - Open Coal Trains

"Originally perceived as a major obstacle to travel between the Coast and the Interior, the Canyon over time became the principal route for commercial and passenger traffic.  Originally dangerous in the extreme, travel through the Canyon was always a formidable prospect, although today's vastly-improved modern highway does not hint at the once terrifying and difficult journey that clung to the mountain's walls as if by sheer nerve.  Simon Fraser's journals speak of having to traverse sections of the canyon by a series of precipitous ladders and rock-climbs, and although several generations of road-builders had a crack at it (from 1859 onwards), the route remained a dizzying cliff-hanger until major highway improvements began in the later 1950s."

Before we got out of the canyon, we  stopped at Hell's Gate tram parking lot for lunch.  We made some sandwiches and checked out the tram office.  $21 to ride the tram - 1000 feet down into the gorge and their tourist shops and restaurant.  Not for us.

(I thought I'd written on this before and I do have a post that focuses on how the original work in the canyon resulted in disaster for the salmon and the people who lived off the salmon.)  

Another couple talked to the guy at the tram and when they passed us said there was a trail to the bottom that only took half an hour.

We walked along a path, under the red bridge to the other parking lot and then came to another parking lot.  The trail was wide enough for a vehicle, but gated off.  And it was a beautiful forest.  The sign said 1 km - a little more than half a mile. 

 This mourning cloak butterfly was flying and resting near me so, I thought I should get a picture. 




It was was definitely down hill, but not bad.  At the bottom there were no trespassing signs and danger signs, but I figured if they guy had said you could walk down, I'd do it.

From the bottom, here's one of the trams.  It took about 15 minutes to get down and 20 to get back up.  But you do have to cross the railroad tracks and given the long trains we saw, you could get stuck.  I decided I didn't need the touristy stuff - the tram website says:

Facilities include:  Simon’s Cafe, Gold Panner Gift Shop, Education Centre, Fudge Factory, Gold Panning, Simon’s Wall, Observation Decks & Suspension Bridge.

 I was more interested in the walk and the gorge.  The water must have been low because it wasn't the rushing torrent I was expecting.

Shortly after I got back over the tracks and started my return trip to the highway, this coal train came by.  I was amazed to see the coal transported in open cars.  Was there something I was missing?  I didn't see any coal dust going into the air, but it was a warm, windless day.

So I checked. 


 Coal Train Facts, a website opposed to shipping coal from Montana to Cherry Point in northwest Washington for shipment to China outlines coal dust concerns:

Because most coal trains are uncovered, they produce significant amounts of coal dust in the course of transporting the coal from one place to another. According to BNSF research, 500 pounds to a ton of of coal can escape a single loaded car. Coal dust is regarded as a nuisance, as the dust can damage the ballast and, the railway claims, cause derailments.  BNSF asks that shippers pay for dust mitigation; shippers typically balk at paying. The Puget Sound coast line is notoriously rainy and windy; it is unclear as to how effective surfactants might be at containing the pulverized coal in adverse weather. There seem to be no guarantees that dust would successfully be controlled en route from the mines to the port. 

Dust is also generated at the terminal site, as bulldozers continually shift and rotate the ground-up coal. Constant turnover is required to both keep the coal in one area, and also to prevent spontaneous combustion.  Wind and moisture can agitate the combustive properties of coal. The potential adverse effects of coal dust on adjacent sites was a factor in the Port of Vancouver rejecting a proposal to export coal from a new export site there. The dust is notoriously difficult to control, and has proven to be a concern for residents close to Westshore, the coal port in BC. The coal at the proposed GPT terminal will be stored in open heaps on 80-105 acres located in proximity to the Cherry Point Aquatic Reserve. Cherry Point can be buffeted by high winds, winter conditions often see wind gusts in the 60-70 knot range. It seems likely that the wind will agitate the heaped, pulverized coal. 

The leaching of toxic heavy metals from coal ash into water supplies is a proven problem. Exposure to arsenic, cadmium, barium, chromium, selenium, lead and mercury can cause any number of health problems, including cancers and neurological diseases.  It is unknown if and to what extent these heavy metals might leach out from the coal and/or fugitive coal dust, from the train cars and at the terminal storage site, into local water supplies and into the marine environment. There are potential implications for the safety of the water we drink and the seafood we eat.
- See more at: http://www.coaltrainfacts.org/key-facts#sthash.kjyRH0uH.dpuf

The pro coal side, represented by Freedom Works in this case, tends to pick at the details, but essentially seems to acknowledge the problems - just not where the environmentalists say.  Here's an example (which doesn't refer to the quote above): 

That passage from the white paper is instructive for a couple of other reasons. The author cites derailments and the average amount of dust lost from coal cars, but he does not say WHERE these things occur. It turns out that the two derailments in 2005 happened on the short Powder River Basin line, not far from the train's point of origin. It was attributed to coal dust fouling the ballast used as a bed for the rails. Regarding the amount of coal dust lost, what the enviros never tell you is WHERE that dust is lost. It doesn't take much effort to realize that most of the dust will be lost at the point of origin - near the mine where the cars are loaded. The further the train travels away from the loading point, the more the load will settle, meaning that less dust is going to blow away. The environmental extremist way of explaining this is to say, "It is unclear how much coal dust might escape in the Pacific Northwest ..."

Juan did a much better job of getting pictures of the spot than I did.  Check his site.

Into Anchorage With New Camera - Chugach Peaks and Fire Island Windmills

There was a strange mix of clouds and sun as we neared home, but Anchorage was in the sun that set about 11pm.

Foraker and Denali in the background

Fire Island windmills

Fracking California

I took this picture in a Turkish restaurant where we stopped for a snack as we arrived in San Francisco Thursday. 

Today's New York Times gives some context to it.  

". . . By all accounts, oilmen and farmers — often shortened to “oil and ag” here — have coexisted peacefully for decades in this conservative, business friendly part of California about 110 miles northwest of Los Angeles. But oil’s push into new areas and its increasing reliance on fracking, which uses vast amounts of water and chemicals that critics say could contaminate groundwater, are testing that relationship and complicating the continuing debate over how to regulate fracking in California. . ."

I've got lots of processing to do from the PATNet conference, so I'm just going to give you a snippet of the Times article and you can read the rest at the link if you like.  And here's  SF Bay Guardian article takes a stronger stand (and has a map).  It begins:

Fracking changes everything

It's toxic. It's contributing to climate change. And it's happening all over California — with little regulation

Help Kenyan Kids With Their Homework With Solar Lanterns - Through Tayasola

[UPDATE Dec. 23, 2013:  Here's a new post about where this project is today.]

E.F. Schumacher, in Small is Beautiful argued that foreign aid projects should be scaled to the needs of the receivers.  Giant projects are often inappropriate and costly while small projects fit the needs and capacity of the receivers. But a lot of foreign aid is just a way for American companies to get the US government to buy their (sometimes surplus) stuff and send it overseas.  Think of all the unfinished and/or unused projects in Iraq that have transferred billions from the US treasury into corporate accounts. Big companies aren't interested in appropriate technology.  But in many cases it's what will make a difference.  Like the this project I'm going to tell you about.

While we were on Bainbridge I met Alma Lorraine Bone Constable who's trying to set up a small business that will distribute small solar light kits to school children to use at night to do their homework.  (She gave me a kit to put together and it was easy.)  The solar lanterns would replace the kerosine lanterns now used, which in addition to needing costly carbon based fuel, aren't particularly healthy indoors, and they're a fire danger.

But they don't just get the kits, they learn about solar energy. They are encouraged to find other ways to apply the technology.  If you want to help with this go to Indiegogo and make a contribution.

I challenge you to watch the video chat I had with Alma.  Why do I have to say that?  Because people are in a hurry and it's easier to skip on to the next link.  But Alma's a person well worth meeting.  You'll find out how she got into this project. And when you finish the movie, I challenge you (again) to think about what surprised you, and what that means about how your first impressions can fool you - especially when there isn't enough time to get the information needed to correct them.





I should disclose that Alma's in a class that my son-in-law is teaching. That's why I know about this, but it  isn't why I'm posting this. It's just good stuff. She's now raising money at Indiegogo - a fundraising site like Kickstarter.

People are always saying that they'd like to help others in need, but they don't know how.  Finishing everything on your plate doesn't really help starving kids elsewhere.  But putting your movie popcorn money into solar lanterns does.

It won't disturb your lifestyle at all. It will just take a few minutes. You can help the kids with a small donation, a fraction of what you spend a month on your cell phone bill. And the kids in Kenya will be able to do their homework with sustainable solar lights that you'll have helped them get. Here's the link again to Indiegogo.

And you can even get a kit yourself if you donate at the right level.  

The organization Alma mentioned that first got her to Africa is Cultural Reconnections.  Norma, are you listening?

The More Decisions You Have To Make, The Worse You Get At It

Michael Lewis was on NPR's Fresh Air talking about his assignment hanging out with the president over six months to write about what it's like to be the president. It was published in Vanity Fair.

One comment he made caught my attention.  He said that President Obama knew of research that shows the more decisions you have to make the worse you get at making decisions.   So Obama avoids many simple decisions - like what clothes to wear, what to eat - so that he can save his decision making energy for the important decisions a president faces.  (Lewis said Obama had thrown out all but his blue and gray suits so he doesn't have to think about what he's going to wear and that someone else makes the menu.)  

I thought about this today after making decisions on the Alaska Airlines website today, taking advantage of discounted fares to LA to visit my mom.  I used up way too much decision making energy. 

It seemed a good time to check into this decision making fatigue story.  I found two interesting articles on this. First was a 2008 Scientific American article "Tough Choices: How Making Decisions Tires Your Brain" by On Amir. 

He mentions something called executive function which includes focused activity, decision making, and will power (as in resisting temptation.)

It turns out, however, that use of executive function—a talent we all rely on throughout the day—draws upon a single resource of limited capacity in the brain. When this resource is exhausted by one activity, our mental capacity may be severely hindered in another, seemingly unrelated activity. (See here and here.) . . .

For example, in one study the researchers found that participants who made more choices in a mall were less likely to persist and do well in solving simple algebra problems. In another task in the same study, students who had to mark preferences about the courses they would take to satisfy their degree requirements were much more likely to procrastinate on preparing for an important test. Instead of studying, these "tired" minds engaged in distracting leisure activities.These experimental insights suggest that the brain works like a muscle: when depleted, it becomes less effective. Furthermore, we should take this knowledge into account when making decisions. If we've just spent lots of time focusing on a particular task, exercising self-control or even if we've just made lots of seemingly minor choices, then we probably shouldn't try to make a major decision. These deleterious carryover effects from a tired brain may have a strong shaping effect on our lives.

One finding was particularly relevant to how I felt booking the tickets: It's harder to make the decision than to just weigh the tradeoffs.

Why is making a determination so taxing? Evidence implicates two important components: commitment and tradeoff resolution. The first is predicated on the notion that committing to a given course requires switching from a state of deliberation to one of implementation. In other words, you have to make a transition from thinking about options to actually following through on a decision. This switch, according to Vohs, requires executive resources.

It was a pain coordinating the different days and times with commitments we have in Anchorage and getting to see my son on the trip,  and of course the different prices.  But as taxing as that was, I think actually making the decision to push the purchase button and finalizing the dates and times and transferring $900 from my credit card to Alaska Airlines seemed to use up even more energy.  Now I know it's the switch from deliberation to implementation that got to me.

 A 2011 New York Times article, "Do You Suffer From Decision Fatigue?" by John Tierney goes into the background research even further.  If this topic interests you at all, this is a good article to pursue.  Tierney starts by talking about the decisions of an Israeli parole board.  It turns out they are more likely to parole you if your case is heard early in the morning.  By the late afternoon, the odds go way down.  He explains they're fatigued by then and rather than make a mistake, they just say no.

It also turns out that glucose can help pick you up, and snacks helped the parole board somewhat.

The mere expectation of having to exert self-control makes people hunger for sweets. A similar effect helps explain why many women yearn for chocolate and other sugary treats just before menstruation: their bodies are seeking a quick replacement as glucose levels fluctuate. A sugar-filled snack or drink will provide a quick improvement in self-control (that’s why it’s convenient to use in experiments), but it’s just a temporary solution. The problem is that what we identify as sugar doesn’t help as much over the course of the day as the steadier supply of glucose we would get from eating proteins and other more nutritious foods.

And it adds some information to an important question of mine:  why do some people make short term decisions while others make longer term decisions.  This is just one part of the answer, but it's interesting.

Your brain does not stop working when glucose is low. It stops doing some things and starts doing others. It responds more strongly to immediate rewards and pays less attention to long-term prospects. 

 That's the main reason, I guess, you're supposed to eat before going shopping.  This physiological information about how the body is affected by decision making adds a lot to planning good decisions.

“Good decision making is not a trait of the person, in the sense that it’s always there,” Baumeister says. “It’s a state that fluctuates.” His studies show that people with the best self-control are the ones who structure their lives so as to conserve willpower. They don’t schedule endless back-to-back meetings. They avoid temptations like all-you-can-eat buffets, and they establish habits that eliminate the mental effort of making choices. Instead of deciding every morning whether or not to force themselves to exercise, they set up regular appointments to work out with a friend. Instead of counting on willpower to remain robust all day, they conserve it so that it’s available for emergencies and important decisions. 

 I've always known that signing up for a PE class made it much easier to exercise more faithfully.  And that resting and eating well are important.  Knowing what causes these problems, means for us, like it does for the president, that we can avoid unnecessary taxing of our executive function:

“Even the wisest people won’t make good choices when they’re not rested and their glucose is low,” Baumeister points out. That’s why the truly wise don’t restructure the company at 4 p.m. They don’t make major commitments during the cocktail hour. And if a decision must be made late in the day, they know not to do it on an empty stomach. “The best decision makers,” Baumeister says, “are the ones who know when not to trust themselves.”

 There is A LOT more interesting stuff in the Tierney's whole article. 

Become An Arctic Oil Expert in Just Ten Minutes a Day

The Anchorage Daily News Tuesday reported that Shell has halted drilling on the Chukchi Sea.

Shell Alaska spokesman Curtis Smith said drilling was stopped as a precautionary measure in accordance with its ice management plan. (emphasis added)

This isn't hard, but it is complicated.  Just give me ten minutes a day scattered over the next months and you can dazzle your friends and enemies with your knowledge of Arctic oil drilling. (I'm hoping I will figure some of this out too by the end of this exercise.)  I'm going to give you info in small chunks.  If by the next big oil spill, your friends aren't amazed at your brilliance, you'll get double your money back.  No questions asked. 

Today we're going to look at some charts from the Ice Management Plan (IMP).  I know, who wants to read charts?  Trust me, it's easier this way.  I'm just asking for ten minutes.  Surely you spent (or will spend) more than ten minutes today doing something something frivolous.  Now's your chance to balance your karma.  And enhance your self-worth. 


So, what's "in accordance with its Ice Management Plan" (mentioned in the quote above) mean? 



Here's the chart explaining the alert levels for ice warnings:

[The "T' (TIME) acronyms are explained in the right column of the second chart.]

Screen Shot from Ice Management Plan p. 9

	IMP ACRONYMS FOR CHARTS	TIME
VMT	Vessel Management Team. This team is headed by the Drilling Vessel Master and includes the Shell Drilling Foreman, Rig Superintendent, Drilling Vessel IA and the Chief Engineer.	MT	Move-off Time. The time required to clear decks on the anchor handler recover all anchors conventionally and move off the drill site in an orderly fashion.
IMV	Ice management vessel. Any ice class vessel tasked with ice management duties in support of the drilling vessel. This includes the primary ice management vessel (IMV) and the ice class Anchor Handling Tug Supply (AHTS)	ST	Secure Time. The time required to secure the well, disconnect the Lower Marine Riser Package (LMRP) from the blowout preventer (BOP), recover and secure the riser.
SIWAC	Shell Ice and Weather Advisory Center located in Anchorage. The center develops forecasts from various sources, and disseminates same.	T-Time	Total Time. The sum of ST + MT.
IMV Master	Ice Management Vessel Master	HT	Hazard Time. The estimated time it will take for hazardous ice to reach the drill site.
PIC	Person In Charge
IA	Ice Advisor	COCP	Critical Operations Curtailment Plan
AHTS	Anchor handling tug supply	LMRP	Lower Marine Riser Package

HTML Tables

The next charts can be seen clearly if you click on them.  You can see the the originals at pages 11 and 12 of the Ice Management Plan (pdf). If you read closely, you'll see this is mainly about who has what responsibilities.  It doesn't tell us much about what they actually do to shut down the well head and secure

Click to see clearly

Click to see clearly

I had a lot of trouble figuring out what exactly they did.  I kept reading vague language  and  phrases like "Commences securing well in accordance with agreed upon plan, informs VMT of progress."  But where's the agreed upon plan?

Finally in Attachment 4, we get some detail.  Presumably these are the things that needed to be done to shut down the well.

Attachment 4 – Well suspension Options and Contingencies
In all the following well suspension scenarios, the assumption is that a determination has been made by the Shell Drilling Superintendent, the Shell Drilling Foreman, the Drilling Superintendent, the Drilling Vessel Master and the VMT that a hazard exists and the well should be suspended. The Shell Drilling Foreman and the Drilling Superintendent in conjunction with the Shell Drilling Engineer and the Shell Drilling Superintendent will have analyzed the trip time, borehole stability, well control issues, operational parameters, depth of hole, and time available to decide upon the contingency steps most appropriate for well securement, and a detailed procedure will have been worked up. The Shell Drilling Foreman then presents the procedure to the BOEMRE Field Representative aboard the drilling vessel for comment and concurrence.
Well Suspension Scenario 1 – Mechanical Plugging
1.    After determining that the well should be suspended under the assumptions described above, the Shell Drilling Foreman orders the Drilling Superintendent to stop all normal drilling operations and to commence circulating the hole.
2.    The driller completes circulating at minimum a full “bottoms up.”
3.    The drilling assembly is pulled out of the hole and a mechanical packer suitable to the last casing or liner size is made up on the bottom of the drill string.
4.    The packer is tripped in the hole, set approximately 200 ft above the last casing or liner shoe depth and pressure tested.
5.    Depending on actual water depth, sufficient pipe is pulled to enable having the end of the string 200 ft above the top of the packer when hung off in the wellhead via the hang-off sub (HOS).
6.    A full-opening safety valve and an inside blowout preventer (BOP) are made up in the top of the drill pipe, and one additional joint is added above these valves. The HOS is installed in the top of this joint. (The full opening safety valve is left in the open position.)
7.    The HOS assembly is run in the hole on drill pipe to land the HOS in the wellhead bowl.
8.    The proper hydraulic fluid volume to actuate the BOP stack is confirmed by the Subsea Engineer and the system operating pressure is checked. Pipe rams in the BOP are closed on the HOS profile. The drill pipe is backed out from the HOS and the landing string is pulled from the riser. The blind/shear rams are closed and locked above the HOS. BOP failsafe valves are all left in the closed position.
9.    The master bushings are removed and the riser spider is installed.
10.    The diverter handling tool is made up and the diverter assembly is laid down.
11.    The riser landing joint is made up into the slip joint inner barrel. The slip joint inner barrel is collapsed and the inner barrel is locked.
12.    BOP stack functions are blocked, and the LMRP connector is unlocked.
Shell Offshore Inc.    41    May 2011
Ice Management Plan    Beaufort Sea, Alaska
13.    The LMRP is pulled off the top of the BOP with the block motion compensator and riser tensioners.
14.    Once the Shell Drilling Foreman has ascertained that the LMRP is released from the BOP, he advises the Drilling Vessel Master that he is free to initiate (or continue) mooring recovery and departure procedures.
15.    The drill crew and Subsea Engineer pull the landing joint to surface. The landing joint, slip joint and riser are then layed down and the LMRP is secured on deck.
16.    The Drilling Vessel Master confirms with the IA that the Ice Alert Level has reached “red” status (ice hazard is due to arrive within 6 hours of completing anticipated mooring recovery time). The Drilling Vessel Master advises the Drilling Superintendent to have the Subsea Engineer shear guidelines loose from the top of the BOP guideposts and to retrieve the lines to surface.
17.    The drill floor and moonpool area are cleared and inspected in preparation for mobilizing the drilling vessel.
18.    All decisions and supporting facts are recorded on the Daily Report and issued to the BOEMRE, SIWAC, and the normal distribution list.

This is just scenario 1. There are four more scenarios with different possible events. Actually Scenario 1 isn't what happened because they only started drilling on Sunday.  According to this video on the Shell website, the first drill is a small (8.5" drill bit) that is a test to see that there are no obstructions or no unexpected pockets of gas. This drill is supposed to go 1300 feet down.  You can watch the video yourself.

And Sunday's ADN confirms this is a pilot drill.

By 6:30 a.m. Sunday, crews had drilled more than 300 feet into the ground for a narrow pilot hole that will eventually be about 1,400 feet deep, Shell spokesman Curtis Smith said. It's used to check for unexpected natural gas pockets, oil or obstructions before a wider hole is drilled.

With the Alert Levels chart in mind, I would note that Shell began drilling, according to the ADN,  at 4:30am Sunday and stopped on Monday.  Let's assume they stopped after 4:30am Monday.  That would be more than 24 hours.  If an ice hazard is more than 24 hours away, according to the Alert Levels, they should continue as normal.  But less than 24 hours away, they need to assess risk.   It's reasonable then to assume that they knew about the ice before they started drilling.  Shell spokesperson Curtis Smith is quoted as saying the wind shifted.

"The winds suddenly shifted and as far as we could determine, the ice could potentially impact our operations at that point," he said. The ice came within roughly 15 miles of the prospect, he said. It is moving at about .5 knots, or one-half a nautical mile per hour, he said. Shell is tracking the ice through satellite and radar imagery, and on-site reconnaissance.

They knew there was an ice pack not far away when they started drilling.  And sometime soon after they began drilling, the ice pack shifted its direction towards the drilling site.  Within 12-24 hours of the ice hazard's expected arrival time, they should be initiating risk assessments and making contingency plans.

They are under the gun here because they started late and, unless their September 24 shut down time is extended by the Interior Department, they've got less than two weeks to drill this year.  So, presumably they took a calculated risk and started drilling on the assumption the ice wasn't going to come their way.  The ADN article quoted above says they got 300 feet in the first two hours, but none of the articles said how deep they got when they stopped drilling.

Read more here: http://www.adn.com/2012/09/10/2619205/shell-halts-chukchi-sea-drilling.html#storylink=cpy

OK, I admit, that was probably more than ten minutes if you did this seriously. But I won't put anything up on this tomorrow. If you go through this three times, I think things will start to make sense. Writing this all down helps me figure it out, so maybe to you'll need to take notes.

Where Are You On The Climate Change Policy Hierarchy??

It seems to me there is a hierarchy of Climate Change statements.  Some don't agree with the first statement.  Others get further down the list.  Here are the statements that I see.  How far down the list do you get before you don't agree? 

1. Global Climate Change is occurring.
2. Humans actions are causing most of it.
3. We can do something about it. 
4. We can be fossil fuel free by 2050, possibly 2030.
1.  It's technically possible, but alternative fuels are too expensive
2.  It's technically and economically feasible, but not politically feasible.

[UPDATE August 9:  I should have added 4.3 here.

•  3.   It's technically, economically, and politically feasible.]

I was probably at statement 3 a year ago. At the Bioneers in Alaska  conference last year, I heard a telesession with Amory Lovins discussing his book Reinventing Fire.  He argues that we can be carbon energy free by 2050 and it wouldn't cost more than the path we are currently on.  (You can hear his TED talk explaining how, here.)

A friend who is far more technically savvy than I expressed serious doubt.  So I started going to Citizens Climate Change monthly meetings, another group I learned about at the Bioneers Conference.

Let's look at the four (plus 2) statements.

1&2.  Climate change is happening and people are causing it.

Most scientists agree this is the case.  A small minority are still skeptics.  Their number decreases regularly.  A major recent convert is UC Berkeley Prof. Richard Muller, who had been a high profile skeptic, and recently wrote a New York Times opinion piece, “The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic,”

“Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I’m now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause.”

The Koch brothers seem to be the main supporters of global warming deniers.  They even paid for part of Muller's research.

3.  There's something we can do about it.

I think most people who accept that people cause climate change believe something can be done - like turning out the lights when you aren't using them, buying electric cars, and other energy saving activities.  But is this enough to prevent irreversible harm to the earth and our ability to survive?  That gets us to statement 4.

4.  We can switch to alternatives by 2050.

This was where I was getting hung up.  After Saturday's Citizens' Climate Lobby (CCL) meeting I have come to understand why my tech friend doesn't agree and why he might be wrong.

4.1 - If you compare prices of oil, coal, and natural gas to alternative fuels, it looks like it will be impossible to be able to switch.  But the people who argue that we can,  include the externalities of coal and oil in their economic calculations.  That is, they look at the costs that are imposed on society by these energy sources that the companies don't pay - health costs and all the environmental damage.  If they were forced to pay for this, then alternatives would be more than competitive.  There are a number of other issues that help support the idea of things being switchable.  I don't claim to understand it all, but I do know that human history is full of such changes from old technologies to new, unbelievable ones.  Anyone living in the last 40 years has experienced this first hand on a lot of fronts. 

4.2 - Even if it were technologically and economically feasible, many people just think it's not political possible.  I'm seeing a number of books at the CCL meetings.  One is a book of statements on climate change by most of the major religious groups.  Most of them recognize that climate change is a human caused problem.  So that's a big step.
Second, there are people working on a carbon tax, that uses market forces, to tax carbons and give every American part of that tax.  As an Alaskan I think about the Alaska Permanent Fund dividends, though I'm not sure that's quite the right model.

I'm also impressed with the CCL strategy.  Their goal is to have groups in every Congressional district who can build relationships with their US Senators and Congress members where they can share their expertise and counter the lobbying by those who have an economic or ideological stake in fossil fuels.

At the monthly meetings there's an international (Canada and the US) teleconference call which includes a presentation by an expert and then there is discussion among the different local groups.  The meetings are run very efficiently.

You can learn more about CCL at their website.  Folks in the Anchorage area can talk to CCL reps at the CCL table at the

Renewable Energy for Alaska Project (REAP) Fair 

on the Parkstrip 

Saturday August 11, 2012 

between 11am and 9pm.