The Board met from 10am today through with a break for Executive Session to get briefed by the attorney on Alaska Redistricting Cases and lunch.
It's been a long day. It's clear that I'm ten years older than I was when I went to the Board meetings
ten years ago. Let me try to pull up some key points from the meeting. Then I'll add my very rough notes from the meeting below
- Time table for map proposals
- Established Aug. 12 as official day they received numbers from Census Brea
- That starts the Constitutional clock for
- preliminary map(s) adopted by Sept 11 (non-Board maps by 9/17) and
- final map by November 10
- What Census data show (see charts on Redistricting Website and also here)
- Changes in districts and regions from 2010 to now - this was shown in a series of slides. There was lots of detail and it will affect the makeup of the legislature. Some key takeaways
- statewide, the smallest population increases in decades
- biggest gains in Matsu - plus 18,000 people (but previous decade gained 30,000); Kenai plus 3400; Western Alaska plus 900
- both Anchorage (JBER lost @3000) and Fairbanks declined
- Executive Session with Board's attorney on lessons from previous Alaska Court cases. The Board made a nod to my suggestion to make some of this public by having the attorney discuss the standards Constitution and the Supreme Court have set for the Board to follow in making their maps. But that sentence was pretty much all he said publicly and then they went into Executive Session for and hour or more (it was combined with lunch which was brought in for them)
- Attorney Matt Singer said (as best as I could type)
"Meeting to review my legal advice. Reviewing my opinions are confidential. For public key places -
Article 6 of Constitution Section 10 outlines process and requirements and Sec. 6 AK Supreme Court each time established guidelines for Redistricting Board process by which it must be done and directions for deviation and how down in light of decisions - so another sourceAvailable where public can search those cases. Guided by Constitution and Alaska Supreme Court."
- My recollection is that ten years ago the attorney did much of this in open session. Here's a post from March 2011 that gives a lot of the requirements as outlined by the 2010 Board attorney. There were other sessions where he gave other such overviews in public.
- Discussion over how the Board is to go about creating maps. The staff recommended dividing the State into six to eight regions and having subcommittees of Board members work on a couple regions each. Then they would come together and put them all together and work out the edges. There was pushback from a Doyon mapper and another group Alaskans for Fair and Equitable Redistricting (There were two groups with similar names last time. I believe AFFR was representing Native groups and Unions generally and Alaskans For Fair and Equitable Redistricting (AFFER) was more of a Republican oriented group) both of whom felt that by making the six regional blocks first, the Board would lock things up and miss options to have better districts inside those regions. It appears the Board is going to try with the Regional Approach but also try to be flexible with those challenges in mind. Also the Board Chair said that the two groups - Doyon and AFFR - could submit their maps for the Board to compare and there would be 6o more days to get public reaction and make changes.
- Public Testimony - you can find some of this in my notes below.
Board ED Peter Torkelson and Chair John Binkley
talking to Doyon mapper during break
Redistricting Board Meeting
(Everyone masked as required)
10:10am
All the Documents/Slides are available at: https://www.akredistrict.org/alaska-population/
Public Testimony
Kay Brown - . . . .former legislator - Use maximum deviation possible. competitive districts, where every vote matters, consistent with public interest. Finally do not gerrymander the map. There is a party in control of this process, do not make that an issue. Thank you for your service. Actions you take will affect state for ten years.
Question, Binkley What do you mean by max deviation? Given our size, be ready to protect minority strength using maximum deviation if necessary.
Online: Hooper Bay - William Manning - Camai. [Cut off]
Move to Anchorage, no, audio tech says ok. Brief at ease - kicked off the system.
10:20 back on line after break where people were talking.
William Manning - Hooper Bay, waiting for the connection. Believe they can hear us, but we can’t hear him.
Christopher Constant - MOA Assembly - Substantially consequential because we created a 12th member of Assembly - Downtown will be growing and we’ll be doing our own redistricting process in parallel with you. Hope we can keep our precincts as close to your statewide districts.
14 people in the audience.
Time frame: immediately after State - we need 60 days and then 6 months to complete. We are beginning internal process to get it done sooner and try to be early. Probably won’t go into effect for 2022 because we need to do it by Dec. 2021. Based on State’s initial final plan, not after all the court decisions.
10:26 Suspended again because, I think, recording system isn’t working.
10:32 Tech problems solved, hopefully.
Joelle Hall - President of Union. Chair of Alaskans for Fair Redistricting. Thank you for work you’re doing. Important for so many of us.
Look at size of districts - looking at rural Alaska maps, getting bigger and bigger as pop grows. Max deviations to allow a little less geography. Clearly have a majority-minority issue and diversity growing and should be recognized. Community interest and urban diversity reflected in the districts. This should be an educational and entertaining process.
Paul Kendall -
?? Silvers - Hulbert? on council, [Wanted to change pairings of Senate districts M and N] Senate districts M and N in South Anchorage - underrepresentation for ??? Anchorage residents. These districts should be mapped to reflect the issues of the two - Combing 25 M and 26N ?? and 26 M 28 N Would better reflect socially . East Anchorage in one district and South Anchorage in another district. Go east/west not north/south.
Major Felisa Wilson - Ret AF Med Officer, recently retired. Came to give insight how Base is set up. Now Joint Base El is in one district and Fort R with Eagle River. Helpful if base communities stay together - near Boniface is lower rank folks, Govt Hill more senior.
Cols and Generals w/o off base homes on. Lot more diversity in army personnel than Airforce. Based on Housing areas.
How can we get in touch with you to follow up?
Melanie - took notes, lots of info, but would be helpful to be specific for maps later.
Try online:
William Manning in Hooper Bay - [We did receive letter from mayor of Hooper Bay - connected with that?] Thanks for letting me speak. Local leaders on the record letter, Hooper Bay should be part of Bethel district - it’s the key hub for us, funding, housing src services served by Bethel. Consider ourselves as part of YK Delta.
John: Having lived in Bethel for many years, I understand what you’re talking about.
Sarah Oped From Doyon. Morning from Fairbanks. Thanks for opportunity. Sarah Obed From Fairbanks testifying on behalf of Doyon. 20K AK Native shareholders. Strengthen our way of Life. Fairbanks Native Association to create maps to ensure state support of Native Alaskans. Communities are not included together in single districts - fractured. We will be presenting Board with our efforts to make statewide map. Approach to mapping interior to overcome current fractured interests.
John: Thanks, looking forward to seeing your maps. If you can keep Doyon in a couple of House districts I’ll be impressed.
Nicole - elaborate on how many districts fractured
Sarah - voter turnout data, polled McGrath and other villages a minority vote for voters in that region. People in villages it’s very hard to have impact.
10:58 John: Followup, when you see fracturing, not socially economically related. [If split into different districts] then have multiple senators or reps looking for you interests.
Sarah: Great question - that was discussion argument in 2014 amended proclamation plan. We had a number of representatives for Doyon, but overall we need more focused representative. That’s been in place since 2014 -
All the testimony - Mr. Kendall - Paul Kendall - concerned about our government, lost sense of purpose, priority, you are all very accomplished. Open plea to you Juneau is now an embarrassing. Magnitude is unprecedented. Keep plan target images, concentrations of populations. Hubs of activity. Like it or not, Anchorage is the hub of the state.
[This is a macro critique about problems of the world, I’m not sure the direct connection to redistricting.]
No one else? Close public testimony
Census Data presentation from Mr. Eric Sandberg - 32 slides of changes from 2010 census and the 2020 Census. Graph of growth over time - this last decade smallest growth
2. Change by census areas. Purple decreased
Largest growth Matsu 18K Kenai 3400. Outside of those in Western Bethel 900, Slope
Fairbanks and Anchorage declined. Unusual. Much of missing growth in those two borroughs.
3. Non-Census slide - Dept of Labor estimates - rate of early natural increase (births-deaths) everywhere had more births than deaths. Highest natural increase in Western Alaska. Lower map, rate of yearly net migration.
4. Pop changes for precincts - Current house districts on top. Western Alaska pop growth, remote as well as hub. Decreases - Kotzebue, Red Dog mine went down. Aleutians lost >100/precinct.
5. Anchorage- top JBER districts largest loss @3000. Anchorage neg for decade, not just JBER. Mt. View, Fairview, Seward Highway down, Hillside up. Downtown core up 500
6. Eagle River stayed at 35K, but people shifted. Downtown loss, but pop growth, north fork of ER Road.
7. Matsu - highest growth - 18K - a slowdown for them, last time by 30K - all over the Borough except for city of Palmer, Sutton and chicaloon. Bishop region and Pt Mckenzie growing - prison is much of that.
8.. Fairbanks lost 1600 people throughout all, but UAF campus 2010 1400, 2020 400, could be COVID related, appears some issue on counting. Growth areas - Frt Wainright only base to grow, changed how deployed soldiers counted. 2010 - overseas pop in state where they enlisted, in 2020 at home base.
9. Kenai, about 3400 people up - Much of road system growth - outskirts of Seward, Homer, Kasiloff, Sterling, and parts of Kenai, Soldotna. Off road system - all lost - Tyonek etc.
10. SE mixed growth - highest Mendenhall Valley, Ketchikan, Hoonah, Skagway fastest, Haines down 500, still looking into why. Number of housing units dropped. Sitka and Wrangell declines.
11. Juneau - airport lemon creek growth. Downtown, North Doughlas, declined.
12. Same maps but with rates of change.
Questions: Matsu faster or slower than state average. 3 areas grew 15% points. Matsu, 20% also Slope 17% growth, and Skagway 28% growth.
Above average - rural SE, Kenai, Western Alaska-
Answering question about rural areas - unclear why, could have been undercounted in 2010
14 JBER stands out for large decline -15% also large sections of Western Anchorage- Mt. View, Bayshore. Other parts grew - Downtown Core - Basher/Stuckagain, Lower Hillside, Kincaid
15 Eagle River roughly same 2010 to 2020
16. Fairbanks - Ft. Wainwright Most FB -12%; wondering if F35’s to eastern side of Borough, but did not seem to be the case. Eilson declined.
How districts from 2010 how far off on 2020 data.
12:06
Back in session - Peter Torkelson Exec Dir talking about how Board received information from Census. This is on the Board’s website
Expect by Sept. 30. Ohio sued. Census determined they could get data done by mid-August.
Aug 5 tweeted - August 12. I checked if that was real.
Got data on drop site August 12, we downloaded the zip file. Unzipped opens into four large text files. About 45 MB of data. Do contain fields. Also have cells, but separated by a special character. Shift Option key.
Easy for program to read, not for people.
Converted to excel
Validation - Compared 3800 cells we matched - they all matched perfectly. Quite confident we have the right data.
Census Bureau will ship us a disc and when we get that we’ll double check it all again.
Look at Website you can see district by district changes in population.
More files you can open with Google Earth.
You can explore 2010 data vs. 2020 data. [I tried and none of my programs worked. KMZ But now I know I need Google Earth to open them.]
Q: What happens if the data doesn’t match when you get the final.
John - Going into ES, but maybe we can have a little introduction.
Peter: AK Constitution Board must adopt one or more plan within ?? Days - Last Board adopted 5 maps including their own and ones other had made. They felt more better. Trying to find areas of agreement. Hoping we’ll get 3rd party maps and heard from some people we will.
Constitutional part : 30 days to draft one or more proposed plan, the 60 more days (90 after official receipt) need to do that. Need to take our plan(s).
Attorney Matt:
Asking Matt to talk a little about why going into ES and a little about the cases so public knows.
Matt Meeting to review my legal advice. Reviewing = my opinions are confidential. For public key places -
Article 6 of Constitution Section 10 outlines process and requirements and Sec. 6
AK Supreme Court each time established guidelines for Redistricting Board process by which it must be done and directions for deviation and how down in light of decisions - so another source
Available where public can search those cases.
Guided by Constitution and Alaska Supreme Court.
Going into ES. Motion with vague reason for going into ES.
If lunch comes during ES, we’ll eat. Come back when we’re done. Not sure how long. Maybe up to an hour.
12:30 now. Should we say 1:30?
Coming back at 1:30.
1:50 post ES and lunch back in session. 9 audience members now
Timeline - Peter constant contact with Census because our timeline based on release of Census Data. Told Sept. 30. After the official release date by law. Noticed that it said “Official” on our website for date. Talked to CB and date of Aug. 12 is NOT official. Don’t actually know for sure what the official date. We are asking the Board to make Sept 11 which is 30 days after Aug 12.
Sept 11, adopt at least one map.
John - Pushing process forward instead of pushing it back.
Matt - tied to release of census. In prior decades it occurred in March. 90 day deadline, 30 to put out proposed plan and then 60 days.
Also had file deadlines, election dates that give time pressures for getting plan in place. Treating Aug 12 as official data is most consistent with Constitution.
Peter: Sept 11 adopt ‘a plan’ by. Then 90 days from official receipt - Nov. 10. We can be earlier. I recommend that due to change of dates:
Sept. 11 and allow 3rd parties a little longer - Dec. 2 - if a 3rd party gets a realistic plan allow them to explain their plan and allow it. Adopt all 3 as drafts so when go on public tour we can have more plans.
We’ll take the 2nd week and Board could have a second plan.
John: Census B had a later date, then gave preliminary data Aug. 12, then decided that Aug. 12 was official. June 1, 2022 = expedite process as much as we can given the lateness already. So legislators can know and file for office.
Melanie - with shorter time frame, public needs adequate time to write up plans and comment on draft plan.
John: One of most important aspects is getting comments from public.
Melanie: Be clear, still waiting for official letter from CB, we just have email and cut and paste from their website. CB could still change it to Sept 30 again.
John: We have better tools - software - and public has that too so it should be easier for public to make maps too.
Recommended motion?
Peter:
TJ: Aoption of draft plan….?
Matt: Best practice to adopt a proposal and publish it.
Nicole: At least one draft by Sept 11 and 17 for others to submit and final plan by November 10.
John: some flexibility.
Nicole: Don’t intend to have flexibility for the end day. It’s a Wednesday.
John: Can’t go beyond the 10th.
Nicole: In ES also talked about give public maximum chance to participate. Not willing to add flexibility to end date.
John: We could work on 4th and 5th and have it by the 10th.
Melanie: Don’t want to be like CB saying maybe, we should have a clear and final dates.
John: No objections? Adopted.
Workflow process.
Peter: No formal presentation. One member to draw it up and show Board. Adopt that part of the state. Probably most flexible. Having two members in subcommittee might be better than just one. Break it into smaller pieces. Something that
1st . If do whole state, end up with one terrible district. If we divide it into region, but each region must be given a population and divide it up.
Six natural regions. And then interlock all six at the end. There will be a reconciliation at the end.
Regionalization to avoid the left-over seat problem.
TJ: 2 members plus staff. 1 and floating member. 1+chair on each committee. They would come to office and work with staff, public could come in. There would be dead times and then time when full committee comes together. Work of subcommittees is just to break up the work. Make sure public is involved and subcommittee work not meant to be binding.
Peter - this office belongs to Legislature and not available all the time. In our office we’ll have big screen that people can watch. Database with questions and rationale.
Start with ??. Questions, recs, rationale.
Started with city X and did this and that for these reasons.
Learned from Mr Sanders we have a lot of changes. Can we modify existing districts. Document decisions and bring them back to the Board. We have room for maybe 20 people.
John: Start with Eric (Sandberg) thoughts on regionalization.
Eric Sandberg:
Kodiak Kenai 4.1 districts
SE 3.91 districts
Western - 37-40, over 4 districts
Nicole - How many
Eric: 2010 1-6
Nicole - were are the district boundaries of the 1-6
Sandberg: Peter asked me to use the new data and do the same thing
Anchorage Same geography and add back Fort Rich with ER and back to Anchorage. 13.92 districts
Questions from Board - slides and handouts
[The regionalization process does make some assumptions about how to divide the population, but I’m guessing this is pretty neutrally intended. Using terms like over and under populated - but that means compared to previously and related to 18,335 people per district. It seems to me that when the regional groups come together there will be big probs. As you adjust on one regional border, it will affect the other regional boarders.]
Melanie: Can you drill down to see Alaska Native percentages?
John: Thanks for presentation Board discussion?
Nicole: In ideal world, preference we come together as a Board, but given the compressed time line. We could work in different combinations of members on different regions. More interaction among board members and also better understanding of the regions.
Discussions of how to divide the regions up. Looking at total population in region along with geography.
Each subcommittee represents
How many people involved in how many regions - familiarity with regions
John: Maybe since Anchorage is so significant we do that as a whole Board.
3:14 - Peter: Agenda is for two days. Recommend we recess now. Anyone who wants to work on map making now can stay and do that.
Tomorrow Agenda 8c and 8d, 9 was done, tomorrow 10 Map making
5 minute recess 3:17
3:39 After lots of audience/Board (John and Peter) discussion during break about the impacts of starting with the Board’s regions and how that locks things in later.
Now in session again. Down to seven audience.
Peter - looking at Matsu - where are the people - northern edge. Talking about how to link people as social-economic community - debating how you make new Matsu districts - north, east, south?
The board is working on a a map starting from Matsu. I’ve lost track of what they are doing. Now they have focused on Fairbanks.
4:25 - John - opening up to more public comment - a response to comments during last break
David Dunsmore - Alaskans for Fair Redistricting - suggest by Borough how much population and regionalization discussion. One of most objective criteria is respecting local government boundaries. Maps don’t allow the Anchorage-Matsu boundary - population doesn’t allow much combination. Start by identifying - Anch has about 15.88 ideal house seats. Choice of 16 house seats keeping socially-economically integrated, where you you get extra population. Issues like that across the state. Appreciate you taking time to listen to us.
Tanner Ander??? Working with Doyon - Interior and SE Coalition. Regionalization issues. Work we have done shows some of the pitfalls when doing regionalization of interior. Puts assumptions that regionalization imposes
- Assumption - putting Matsu B with Ahtna region - so made changes in those areas. But if you took the Denali B and assigned those instead of Glenallen Ahtna area, the numbers work out perfectly. If you go to Fairbanks and take two districts and combine with rural communities that allow dominant rural voice. We have 1.6%. Numbers can work. We hope Board will take our map into consideration. Not presenting magical thinking, but a real map. If you think Denali B has to be combined with Fairbanks B.
Peter - are you going to have a statewide plan? Yes
Nicole: Can we see this? Yes
BuDD-
We’ve been working for months to get this done. We know everyone is under compressed time frame.
Melanie: Big change from ours?
Tanner: Except for pairing Denali Borough with Matsu instead of FB, otherwise very similar.
John: Anyone else?
Matt: As bord thinks about how it organizes itself, there’s no constraints,
John: Ultimately whole board makes its decision as a whole. Just trying to figure out the best way to get the job done.
