Saturday, August 14, 2021

Turns Out Evictions Are More Complicated and Venal Than I Realized

 

This On the Media segment on Eviction is worth listening to.  The issue of housing segregation and evictions is not about how hard people work, but techniques designed to keep people unhoused.  

"It isn't as much about poverty as it is about extracting wealth from the poorest people."



Around 12:30 in the audio, Matt Desmond — Pulitzer Prize–winning author of Evicted: Poverty and Profit in the American City, and founder of the Eviction Lab at Princeton University - begins.  Be sure to listen to him.  

Some things I learned in this episode. 

  • Rents in poor neighborhoods are not that much lower than rents in much nicer neighborhoods, but for poor people, especially people of color, they can't rent a place in those areas. 
  • Landlords renting in poor neighborhoods have a higher profit margin than those in better neighborhoods
  • All of this traces back to the great migration of Blacks from the South to the North.  
  • Presence of children increases the odds of eviction.  

I recommend you listen while your doing some mindless task, like cleaning the bathroom, kneading bread, shredding old paperwork, etc.  

What I heard on the radio was apparently taken from several of the segments you can find them all at the link at the beginning of the post.  

Friday, August 13, 2021

There Are No Available ICU Beds in Anchorage According To State Hospitalization Dashboard

Here's the link to the State Hospitalization Dashboard.  [I have to move from Safari to Chrome to get to the Dashboard.  Also the link goes automatically to Statewide.  On top in the middle is a drop to to select a region.  That's where you can see Anchorage.  And remember, the dashboards change daily.

"Friday, August 13, 2021 - Slightly better than yesterday.  No new deaths 20 new hospitalizations.  Ten fewer hospitalized COVID patients, but one more Vent- 116(9).    Available ICU beds up two to 26 statewide.  BUT there are none available in Anchorage.

For Anchorage 8/13/21

I think this is the first time we've been here.  So don't have a heart attack, serious stroke, car crash, or any other event that would require an ICU bed in Anchorage today and probably over the weekend.  

313/313 new resident cases. (I always like it when my calculations match the State's number, but if they don't match I don't worry about it.  My number always = today's #-yesterday's #.  There were 25 new non-resident cases.

About 5700 test.  Test Positivity down ever so slightly from 7.1 to 7.01.  

Be firm, but patient with the anti-maskers.  They've attached some sort of emotional and/or ideological symbolism to the masks.  And once they've joined that club, there's a lot of peer pressure not to defect.  They even are willing to risk their children's lives to stay members of the club.  

Thursday, August 12, 2021 - Bad numbers today.  Three new deaths.  22 new hospitalizations.  (This makes more sense than yesterday's 4 - I guess they're catching up.)  Hospitalizations are 123 (8) - the eight are on Vents and listed as 'COVID -positive and suspected.'  That's a combined increase from yesterday of four (not 22).  We're down to 24 available ICU beds in Alaska. 

376/378 new resident cases.  We have to go back to January 8, 2021 to get a higher number (403/403).  (There are some higher numbers since then, but they represent two or more days.)  New non-resident cases = 29.  

There were about 9900 tests and our Test Positivity is down slightly to 7.1.  That means 7.1% of people tested were positive."


In addition to blogging regularly, I've also been tracking a half a dozen or so Alaska COVID numbers as they are posted.  The numbers were posted every day.  Then down to weekdays as things improved.  Then down to three days.  And now it's back to five days.  It should be back to seven days because the numbers are like those back in January 2021 and earlier.

These COVID posts don't appear here.  They are on a tab [Alaska Daily COVID Count 3] just under the WHAT DO I KNOW? banner on top.  There are three different COVID tabs because the pages were getting so long they were really slow.  But the chart with the numbers goes back to March 15, 2020.  So you can scroll through it to daily changes.  

The state's numbers and mine often are different.  Not that I'm making mine up.  For new cases and newly hospitalized COVID patients, the state offers a number.  They also include totals.  I subtract the previous total from today's total to get my number of new resident cases and new hospitalizations.  That number isn't always the same as the one the state offers.  




Tuesday, August 10, 2021

Checking Alaska's Proposed Election Regulation Changes

My wife had the section of the ADN that I wanted to read on Sunday.  So I picked up the Classified Section.  It had a long notice:

"NOTICE OF PROPOSED CHANGES TO IMPLEMENT BALLOT MEASURE 2 AND MAKE CLARIFYING CHANGES IN THE REGULATIONS OF THE DIVISION OF ELECTIONS"

This link gives you that notice posted on the State's public notice site.

Given that lots of State Legislatures are busy passing laws intended to disenfranchise voters, this seemed like something I should look at a bit more carefully.  This is definitely one of those places where "the devil is in the details" applies.  

I've taken some time in the last couple of days to mesh the proposed changes into the body of the current regulations.  I've put the proposed changes in red so it's easy to find them.  The whole thing is at the bottom of this post.  

Things To Know About The Proposed Changes

  • The announcement lists all the changes to be made.  To be clear, it tells us what needs to be done, but it doesn't tell us the new language, so we don't know what they intend to actually say.
  • Most of the changes seem to be apolitical technical changes because of 
    • passage of Proposition 2  which (1) changed the primary to be a single election with all candidates for each position running against all the others, and (2) changing the general election to ranked choice voting
    • State is no longer using Accu-vote machines, so all references to those machines are to be deleted
    • US Supreme Court Decision   Shelby Co v. Holder to no longer require preclearance of changes in election laws for Alaska and 15 other states.
  • Some changes appear to be substantive and while they are simply spelling out the steps to determine the practical implementation of Prop 2, in some cases the wording could potentially directly or indirectly impact the elections, such as:
    • Add 6 AAC 25.071 to specify when and how votes for write-in candidates will be counted.
    • Add 6 AAC 25.072 to define duplicate rankings and determine how they will be counted.  
    • Change 6 AAC 25.225 to determine the process for filling a vacancy in the candidacy for lieutenant governor.
    • Change 6 AAC 25.240 to remove the specific number of petition booklets that the division will issue. [Current number is "500 or less."  Minimally they should change  'less' to 'fewer.']
    • Change 6 AAC 25.683 to update a statutory reference; allow someone with a power of attorney to cancel a voter’s registration; remove a reference to selecting a primary ballot; and allow a special power of attorney to include the power to cancel a voter’s registration.  [Currently someone with power of attorney can register folks and help with absentee voting.  I understand the need to remove deceased voters from the rolls, but my sense is that this could also be used badly.  Think Brittany Spears.  I haven't heard the arguments, but at this point I think Vital Statistics should share deaths with the Registrar.  Given this political climate, I can see people with this power disenfranchising people they disagree with politically.  I don't know, just raising questions here.]
  • Many changes I'm still trying to figure out what they mean such as 
    • Add 6 AAC 25.069 to determine that the general election ballot will include space for one write-in candidate per race, except that the races for president and vice-president will not allow write-in candidates.
  • Some I have a giant "WHY?" for.  There are probably good reasons but it seems odd.  For example: 
    • Add 6 AAC 25.195 to specify that ranked-choice tabulation will begin the 15th day after the election, with only first-choice results reported before then.  [I'm guessing this has to do with the need to know the last place candidates in each race, because then the second place vote for the last candidate is given to the next ranked candidate. They may be assuming that you need all the absentee votes in before going to this process.  And that may be true in some or even most cases as they need to know the losing candidate before reassigning the 2nd place votes.  But I suspect in some cases you'd know before every last ballot is in.]

I'm not saying that there is anything underhanded going on.  I'm just trying to make sure there isn't.  I  haven't had time to think through and raise these kinds of questions for all the changes yet.  I'm hoping also to clarify some of my question with the Division of Elections.  

But in the meantime, I thought I'd put this up so other people don't have to duplicate this effort and can just jump in and look at what's there.  It would be nice to break this down so different people are looking at different parts.  Not everyone needs to look at everything.  

Some Notes On My Method For Doing This
  • Most changes apply to a single section only, but some apply to several (such as every time they mention Accu-vote they need to delete it.) I repeat the red changes for all the sections they apply to.
  • When there are multiple changes to a single section, I give each a bullet so you know there are more than one.
  • Some are changes to a section ("Remove"  or "Change") and some are actually newly numbered sections ("Add")  I put the ADD where it would go.
  • I've put the proposed changes in red so it's easy to find them.  


The Proposed Changes Embedded in the Current Regulations:

Remove repealed statutory authority in 6 AAC 27.035 and 6 AAC 27.150.



Alaska Election Code Propos... by Steve



The World Offers Little Miracles All Around US

Some of the tiny beautiful worlds in the yard.  The astrantia from a distance doesn't look like much, but close up it's amazing.




Then there are some purple perennials whose names I can't remember, but come up each year showing that there are so many ways to be a flower and to attract bees.




Well, this stock isn't a perennial.  When I planted the seeds earlier in spring, I didn't realize they were all purple.  Nevertheless the bees like them all the same.


And these little mushroom villages surely suggest that pixies or other sprites might be hiding nearby.



This salpiglossis I can't take credit for.  It was calling out to me on one of my visits to the botanical garden.  $3 for a little pot that I know will give me more of these beauties into October.  





 And some flowers come inside where we can enjoy them a little more.


Sunday, August 08, 2021

"For her, the head scarf did not just stand for God's love, it also proclaimed her faith and preserved her honor."

Nobel Prize winning Turkish novelist Orhan Pamuk's Snow takes place in a northeastern Turkish town (Kars) during a long snowstorm.  Ka (yes, Kars and Ka was confusing to me at first) is a journalist/poet from Istanbul who's recently returned to Turkey from years in Germany.  He's ostensibly gone to Kars to report on high school girls who have been committing suicide rather than stop
wearing head coverings. It appears, though, that rekindling an old love with a woman who now lives in Kars was the underlying real reason.  [I'd note here that the author tells us that suicide is a sin in Islam.]

I call this to your attention because the book, and the passage below, seems like an examination of intense human belief and behavior that offers insight into people with strong ideological attachments to fighting masks and vaccines.  In the excerpt here, a group of high school girls have been discussing the suicide of a classmate.  

It reminds me that people's behavior can't be attributed to one simple cause.  While people have a tendency to do that, things are more complex (like why Ka went to Kars.)  There are lots of factors that play a contributing role. 

"Why don't you tell the story, Hande?' said Kadife.  'There's nothing to be ashamed of.'

'No, that's not true.  There's a great deal to be ashamed of, and that's why I want to talk about it,' Hande said.  Her large eyes flashed with a strange joy.  She smiled as if recalling a happy memory and said, 'It's forty days exactly since our friend Teslime's suicide.  Of all the girls in our group, Teslime was the one most dedicated to the struggle for her religion and the word of God.  For her, the head scarf did not just stand for God's love, it also proclaimed her faith and preserved her honor.  None of us could have ever imagined she would kill herself.  Despite pressure both at school and at home to take off the scarf - her father and her teachers were relentless - Teslime held her ground.  She was about to be expelled from school in her third year of study, just on the verge of graduating.  Then one day her father had some visitors from police headquarters;  they told him that if he didn't send his daughter to school scafrless, they would close down his grocery stored run him out of Kars.

'The father threatened to throw Teslime out of the house, and when this tactic failed he entered into negotiations to marry her off to a forty-five-year-old policeman who had lost his wife.  Things had gone so far that the policeman was coming to the store with flowers.  So revolted was Teslime by this gray-eyed widower, she told us, she was thinking of taking off her head scarf if it would save her from this marriage, but she just couldn't bring herself to do it.  

'Some of us agreed that she should uncover her head to avoid marrying the gray-eyed widower and some of us said, 'Why don't you threaten your father with suicide?'  I was the one who urged this most strongly.  I really didn't want Teslime to give up her head scarf.  I don't know how many times I said, 'Teslime, it's far better to kill yourself than to uncover your head.'  But I was just saying it for the sake of conversation.  We believed what the papers said - that the suicide girls had killed themselves because they had no faith, because they were slaves to materialism, because they had been unlucky in love;  all I was trying to do was give Teslime's father a fright.  Teslime was a devout girl so I assumed she would never seriously consider suicide.  But when we heard that she had hanged herself, I was the first to believe it.  And what's more, I knew that, had I been in her shoes, I would have done the same thing.  

'After Teslime's suicide, Hande decided to take off her head scarf and go back to school;  she didn't want to cause her parents any more distress,' Kadfe explained.  "They'd made so many sacrifices, gone without so much, to giver her the right sort of upbringing;  the things most parents do for an only son, they did for her.  Her parents have always assumed that Hande would be able to support them one day, because Hande is very clever.'

She was speaking in a soft voice, almost whispering, but still loud enough for Hande to hear her, and like everyone else in the room, Hande was listening, even with her tear-filled eyes still fixed to the television screen.

'At first the rest of us tried to talk her out of removing her scarf, but when we realized that her going uncovered was better than her committing suicide, we supported her decision.  When a girl has accepted the head scarf as the word of God and the symbol of faith, it's very difficult for her t take it off.  Hande spent days locked up insider her house trying to concentrate' (pp. 119-120)

While Islam has a much longer and widespread tradition than Trumpism, we can see the same strong ideological link between the symbols (wearing head scarves and not wearing masks).   More important, it would seem,  there is a basic human tendency to take strong symbolic action in defiance of the authorities, in alliance with other rebels - sometimes with good reasons, often on a false path.

Here, for both the girls in Kars and the anti-maskers today, the face/head coverings touch a deep aspect of their identity that triggers an extreme bond among fellow believers.  Both are confronted with conflicts with other loyalties they have - the girls to their parents and school, anti-maskers to their own health and that of their family members and close friends.  And there are other factors intertwined - Teslime's possible marriage to a much older man, and anti-maskers', as one example, the impact on their small businesses .  And then there are the influences of friends as they discuss how to handle all these conflicts. 

 It would be helpful to those supporting masks to hear the private discussions among anti-maskers. how similar are they to this passage from Pamuk?

That's the basic post.  You can stop here if you like.  But a few other things have popped up while I wrote.

As I was seeking a link to Pamuk's background, I found this passage.  The highlighted part of this excerpt from Pamuk's Nobel Prize biography seems to also involve relevant themes:

"Pamuk’s international breakthrough came with his third novel, Beyaz Kale (1985; The White Castle, 1992). It is structured as an historical novel set in 17th-century Istanbul, but its content is primarily a story about how our ego builds on stories and fictions of different sorts. Personality is shown to be a variable construction. The story’s main character, a Venetian sold as a slave to the young scholar Hodja, finds in Hodja his own reflection. As the two men recount their life stories to each other, there occurs an exchange of identities. It is perhaps, on a symbolic level, the European novel captured then allied with an alien culture."

 I'd note, finally, that great fiction tells the inherent stories of humankind.  It reveals the basic human condition and reactions to that condition across cultures and times.  It gets past the cultural facades to find those human emotions and struggles that we recognize everywhere and anytime that humans live.  

This way of understanding isn't anti-science, but rather it demonstrates truths that science is (not yet?) capable of confirming.  But it takes time for these great works to be sifted from lesser ones.  There are many competitors in any present time that may attract followers to short term cultural truths that eventually will be uncovered as the stories that uphold the current power structure.  

Saturday, August 07, 2021

Alaska Redistricting Board To Get Detailed Census Data August 12, 2021

 Here's the announcement from the Board's executive director:

". . . a quick note to let you know that we received notice a few minutes ago that the Census bureau will release legacy formatted redistricting data on Aug 12th at 9am Alaska time.

The previously published release date was August 16.

Our software vendor will need about a week to convert this legacy data into files that our map-drawing software can work with. We are working with the Department of Labor to get an early peek at the district population deviations and will advise you when these numbers are available for your review."

The State population arrived much earlier.  This is the detailed information needed to draw the district maps.  

I wrote about the public mapping software that will be available and the basic rule.    As the message says, it will take about a week for the data to be downloaded into the public map-drawing software.  I recommend getting familiar with the software.  This is like a free computer game with which you can help shape the Alaska legislature for the next ten years.  

Seriously.  If you can make demonstrably fairer maps - that is maps that meet the federal and state statutory requirements - than the Board makes, you could challenge their maps.  Minimally, you could share your maps with one of the interest groups that are following the process carefully.  This will include Municipalities, political parties, Native Corporations and non-profits, etc.  

You can go to the Board's website and start playing with the maps here (they have the data for the 2010 redistricting process loaded now.) I'm following my granddaughter's lead.  She just gets her mom's phone and tries out everything she can find until she figures out cool things she can do.  I'm trying to do that with the software.  

My understanding is that the Board has a month to prepare the first set of maps for public comment, so there should be a flurry of meetings soon.  There's no information yet about when that will start.  Not sure if it will take a week for Board's map-making software, or just for the public software.

Here's a screenshot.  I'm a little concerned about how easy this is going to be on my laptop.  We'll see.   So far it looks more like a toy, but let's see what I'll be able to do with it.  If there are mappers out there who want to work together on this, send me an email (upper right hand column) or leave comments.









Friday, August 06, 2021

"If 354,216 people have at least one vaccine and that equals 58.4 Percent of the over 12 population, how many people haven't been vaccinated?"

 Here are the numbers and percentages of Alaskans over 12 who have gotten one and two COVID vaccine shots.  

People are offering many different ways to convince the unvaccinated to change their status:

  • logic and scientific studies
  • emotional appeals about their relatives or how Trump and McConnell have gotten vaccinated
  • monetary incentives
  • appeals by celebrities

So here's another approach - test their math ability.  Below is the vaccination dashboard for Alaska that was put up today.


Some questions to ask:

  1. How many people in the one+ vaccination number (354,216) are also counted in the number of  people in the fully vaccinated number (319,920)?
  2. How many people in the one+ vaccination number (354,216) need to get a second shot?
  3. What percent of people have gotten one or more shots?
  4. What is the total population the State is using of 12 years and over?
  5. What percent of people have gotten no shots at all?
  6. How many people is that?
Humility is a virtue that can be taught fairly easily.  Just give people some fairly basic question that they should be able to answer but they can't.  I used to ask income graduate students question about the Anchorage and the Alaska operating budgets, about the five most populous and five largest (by area) countries in the world, and how many acres Potter Marsh is.  The point of this was that most people talk about budgets, about world politics, and about acres without really know what they are talking about at all.  Not being able to answer those questions was a good starting point of a graduate program.  

So let's try that out with the vaccine and mask resisters.  (Though I realize my graduate students were more likely to confront their lack of knowledge than the resisters are.)

If the unvaccinated  can't figure out these relatively easy questions, point out that nevertheless  they think they are smarter than the scientists who have created the vaccines, monitor them, and keep all these numbers.


Answer key:  (I suspect that a lot of folks who did get shots also might have problems with these.  I also suspect most high school students do better on this quiz than most adults.)

Question 1:  Wednesday, fully vaccinated was 52.6% (52.7% today) and partially vaccinated was 58.1% (58.4% today).  If you think about it, you realize that all the fully vaccinated increase has to be from people in the partially vaccinated category who go their second shots.  In fact everyone in the two shot category is also listed in the one+ shot category.  Any one who misses this one is in serious trouble.  

Question 2:  Since everyone in the two dose category is also in the one dose category, you just have to subtract the two dose number from the one dose number.  354,216 - 319,920 = 34,296 people who only have had one shot.  As these folks get their second shot, the fully vaccinated number goes up. But that also assumes that all the second shots were recorded correctly.  

Question 3:  This is the "Who is buried in Grant's Tomb" question.  It's on the chart and labeled as such.  If people miss this question, they shouldn't be allowed to vote, because . . . OK, I know, literacy tests to vote were prohibited because they were set up to keep Black folks from voting.  But it sure is tempting to have some fairly basic questions for all voters.  After all, immigrants to the USA have to pass the Citizenship exam before they can vote.  

Question 4:  This one is slightly trickier than the other three. 

58.4%  of the total population equals 354,216.  But what's the total population?  Going to Google is tricky because there are lots of different estimates of the population at different times.  But even if you got the same one the State uses, most of them break things down by different age categories:  under five or over 18, but not by 12 and over.  So you're left with algebra.  

58.4%*X= 354,216. (X equals total population) If you're having trouble with that, the Khan Academy can help you out.   

If I got my own math right, the population over 12 that they're using comes to 606,534.   

Question 5:  If 58.4% have gotten at least one vaccination, we just subtract that number from . . . 
100%, of course.  That gives us 41.6%

Question 6:  Then calculating 41.6% of the total 12 and over population gives us the number of unvaccinated adults, which comes to 252,318.  

So, if you know anyone in that group of 252,318, remind them they need to get vaccinated.  If they give you guff about how dangerous the vaccine is or how the virus isn't dangerous, ask them to answer the six questions above.   
If they can't do those simple calculations, ask them how they can evaluate the danger of the vaccine versus the danger of the virus?

[This is when I wish I had an editor to double check my post.  But I have readers who can let me know if I got everything right.]

Wednesday, August 04, 2021

Who's Getting Shot In Alaska - By Region

 The State's Vaccine Dashboard shows percentage of people who have had one or more vaccine doses.  This is for folks over 12 years old. [Remember, the numbers change daily.]

  • Bristol Bay plus Lake and Peninsula  -90%
  • Aleutians East Borough -87%
  • Skagway Municipality - 84%
  • Nome Census Area - 82%
  • Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area - 79%
  • Juneau City and Borough - 79%
  • Kusilvak Census Area - 79%
  • Yakutat plus Hoonah-Angoon - 78%
  • Sitka City and Borough - 77%
  • Bethel Census Area - 74%
  • Haines Borough - 72%
  • Aleutians West Census Area - 71%
  • Denali Borough -  68%
  • Prince Of Wales-Hyder Census Area - 68%
  • Kodiak Island Borough-  67%
  • Ketchikan Gateway Borough -67%
  • Petersburg Borough - 65%
  • Northwest Arctic Borough - 64%
  • Valdez-Cordova Census Area -  63%
  • Wrangell City and Borough -  62%
  • Anchorage Municipality -  62%
  • Dillingham Census Area - 61%
  • Fairbanks North Star Borough - 50%
  • Kenai Peninsula Borough -48%
  • Matanuska-Susitna Borough - 41%
  • North Slope Borough - 38%
  • Southeast Fairbanks Census Area -33
The Statewide total for 1+ vaccines is 58.1%.  Fully vaccinated is 52.6.  
I can't find a similar list of fully vaccinated.  

Since fully vaccinated is less than 4% fewer than the partially vaccinated, I'm assuming most on that list are fully vaccinated and we have 42% of the over 12 population that is unconvinced, though I suspect the 12-18 group might still be ready for shots.  

The CDC reports 67.9% of ages 12 and over in the US are partially vaccinated.  58.3% are fully vaccinated.  

Tuesday, August 03, 2021

"Don’t call them “at-risk.” They’re “at-promise" And 3 Other Articles Of Interest

Let's start off with some good news.  If you're only going to link to one of these articles, I recommend this one.   There are better ways to do things.  For one things, being smaller and close to your people helps.   I also want to disclose that the head of Fledge is a close relative.

Novel Holding Company Africa Eats Has Raised $1.8M For Its Impact Startups (Forbes)

About a year ago, Fledge, which operates about 10 impact accelerators around the world, launched Africa Eats, a holding company with 27 agriculture and food-focused Africa-based graduates of the networks’ programs. The goal: supporting entrepreneurs on-the-ground with an intimate understanding of how best to address hunger and poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa. Since then, the company has raised close to $2 million—and, despite the pandemic, the portfolio companies are doing fine.

Another good news story, where calling attention to labels can make a difference.  Not 'at risk.'  'At promise.'  Most kids want to be good people, they just need support for those dreams.

Caring for the environment helps South King County kids recovering from trauma or hardship find a sense of purpose  (From the Seattle Times)

"This summer, Park, Amine and Tracy are among two dozen mostly South King County youth learning to be stewards of the environment. 

They clean urban lakes during kayak patrols, plant trees, learn field mapping skills and test water quality in streams and rivers on state parks and public lands. They’re on water or trails several days each month. They’re paid $15 an hour for the work — enough to keep most of them from having to take other part- or full-time jobs that would otherwise consume their days — and they’re getting leadership training so they can help lead conservation and pollution prevention efforts in the future. . .

Many of the youth involved in Unleash the Brilliance have faced early adverse experiences “on steroids,” says Dorsey. Amine was peer pressured into regularly using drugs in middle school; his grades and relationship with his parents tanked. Park’s family faced bankruptcy. Other youth bore witness to their parents’ addictions, moved around a lot or lived in extreme poverty. Some have a history of being incarcerated, skipping class or facing delays graduating from high school. 

Dorsey sees them for their potential. Don’t call them “at-risk.” They’re “at-promise,” he says."


How much do your peers impact your behavior?  This Atlantic article addresess peer pressure and vaccination.  

The Anti-vaccine Con Job Is Becoming Untenable:  Why targets of deliberate deception often hesitate to admit they’ve been deceived

"Something very strange has been happening in Missouri: A hospital in the state, Ozarks Healthcare, had to create a “private setting” for patients afraid of being seen getting vaccinated against COVID-19. In a video produced by the hospital, the physician Priscilla Frase says, “Several people come in to get vaccinated who have tried to sort of disguise their appearance and even went so far as to say, ‘Please, please, please don’t let anybody know that I got this vaccine.’” Although they want to protect themselves from the coronavirus and its variants, these patients are desperate to ensure that their vaccine-skeptical friends and family never find out what they have done. . .

Shifting from an individual to a relational perspective helps us understand why people are seeking vaccination in disguise. They want to save face within the very specific set of social ties that sociologists call “reference groups”—the neighborhoods, churches, workplaces, and friendship networks that help people obtain the income, information, companionship, mutual aid, and other resources they need to live. The price of access to those resources is conformity to group norms. That’s why nobody strives for the good opinion of everyone; most people primarily seek the approval of people in their own reference groups."


Do you know whether your insurance company is insuring coal companies?

U.S. INSURERS FAIL ON CLIMATE ACTION:   Global insurers make coal increasingly “uninsurable”; whole industry fails to act on oil & gas  

LONDON (December 2, 2020)—U.S. insurance companies lag behind their global peers and play a key role in enabling the fossil fuel industry, the Insure Our Future campaign revealed today in its fourth annual scorecard on insurers’ climate policies. 

Insuring Our Future: The 2020 Scorecard on Insurance, Fossil Fuels and Climate Change finds that most European and Australian insurers no longer provide coverage for new coal projects, which has made it harder and costlier to secure the insurance that coal projects need to operate. Coal companies face rate increases of up to 40%. Controversial projects—like the Adani Group’s Carmichael coal mine in Australia—are finding it hard to obtain insurance at all. This demonstrates the insurance industry’s unique power to accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels.  

 More useful for most folks is the scorecard here.  

Unfortunately, smaller companies like All State and State Farm aren't listed here.  They are both independent companies.  But Geico is owned by Berkshire Hathaway which is one of the worst offenders.

 

Sunday, August 01, 2021

Not Learning From History. Not Knowing Statistics

 The Anchorage Daily News headline today:



"Sicker and younger:  Unvaccinated people drive new trend"

I couldn't help but mentally edit  Pastor Martin Niemöller's famous quote about the Nazi's victims.

First they [it] came for the socialists [nursing home residents], and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.[a nursing home resident]
Then they [it] came for the trade unionists, [other seniors and immuno-compromised] and I did not speak out— because I was not a trade unionist.  [a senior or immune-compromised]
Then they [it] came for the Jews,[unvaccinated] and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew. young
Then they [it] came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.

A major problem driving all this is STATISTICAL IGNORANCE.  People simply don't understand statistics, so terms like 'flattening the curve' or 'cases per 100,000' don't really mean anything.  The graphs are just pictures of curves and straight lines.  

And newspaper headlines and Tweets don't help.  Either the writers and editors don't understand statistics or they are intentionally trying to mislead.  (Sure, it's rarely either/or, they might just be rushing and not thinking)



Do I need to explain these Tweets?  Yeah, I guess, some folks won't get this.  

The original tweet (Ken Dilanian) highlights that 125,000 fully vaccinated Americans tested positive for COVID.  There's no mention of: 
  1. what the time period was
  2. how many of them were asymptomatic
  3. how many had minor symptoms
  4. how many were hospitalize
  5. how many needed a ventilator
  6. how many died
And Derek Willis also points out that if you realize that this was .08 percent of all the 164 million people who have been vaccinated, the amazing effectiveness of the vaccines are highlighted instead of making it sound like the vaccinations are ineffective.  

One last thing that I've mentioned before, but isn't talked about enough.  The longer the virus is able to find refuge in human hosts, the more potentially deadlier and more contagious variants can evolve.  (And you have to understand and believe in evolution to understand that point.)  So, the more people who are vaccinated (locally, but also world wide, cause people travel and virus hitchhike on those travelers) the fewer refuges there are for virus to mutate.  


It seems to me we're all in a leaky boat together in the ocean.  The water is up to our ankles.  A small but vocal group of the passengers want to drill holes in the bottom of the boat to let the water drain out.  Those are the anti-maskers and the anti-vaxxers.