Alaska COVID-19 Count Saturday May 9, 2020 - 1 New Cases 13 New Recoveries

Not much to add to this.  Alaska's case count is staying low, despite the opening of the restrictions a bit last week.  There were 976 new tests reported yesterday.  Even though the number of tests may not coincide with the days number of identified cases, for the last few days less than 1% of the people tested have been positive.  Some possibilities:

• the number of infected people is so low that there aren't many new infections, 
• people infected are asymptomatic and aren't being tested, or 
• there hasn't been enough time for those getting sick to get sick enough to be tested.  

A New York Times article yesterday tells us that two major studies model three possible patterns of the virus depending on human behavior (sheltering in place or various levels of mingling).  In any case. . .

The authors conclude that whichever reality materializes (assuming ongoing mitigation measures, as we await a vaccine), “we must be prepared for at least another 18 to 24 months of significant Covid-19 activity, with hot spots popping up periodically in diverse geographic areas.”

I'd note that NYTimes, like many other media, have their paywall down for Coronavirus articles.

The State site has an announcement that the format of the data will change on Monday.  The announcement is here.  From my quick reading, it seems the key changes will be a reduction of data in the raw data packages, but the posted graphs will not change much.  It says the changes are due to HIPAA privacy requirements.  In Alaska, a lot of communities are very small and so even from aggravated data patient confidentiality could be compromised.  It's a common issue for research in many fields when gathering data in rural Alaska.

CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH/APRIL/May 2020
Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
new/total	hos=hospital		12th  = 0/0	13th = 1/1	14th = 0/1	15th = 0/1
16th = 0/1	17th = 2/3	18th = 3/6	19th = 3/9	20th = 3/12	21st= 2/14	22nd= 8/22
23rd=14/36	24th =6/42 1 hos 1 dead	25th = 17/59 3 hos 1 dead	26th = 10/69 3 hos 1 dead	27th =16/89 5 hos 2 dead	28th = 13/102 6 hos 2 dead	29th= 12/114 7 hos  3 dead
30th=5/119 7 hos 3 dead	31st= 14/133 9 hos 3 dead
April 2020		1st=  10/143 9 hos 3 dead	2nd=8(6)/149 13 hos 3 dead	3rd=8(11)157 15 hos 3 dead	4th=15/171 16 hos 5 dead	5th= 14/185 20 hos 6 dead
6th=6/191 23 hosp 6 dead	7th= 22/213 23 hosp 6 Dead29 recovered	8th= 13/226 27 hosp 7 dead 32 recovered	9th= 9/235 27 hosp 7 dead 49 recovered	10th=11/246 28 hosp 7 dead 55 recovered	11th=11/257 31 hosp 8 dead 63 recovered	12th= 15/272 31 hosp 8 dead 66 recovered
13th= 5/277 32 Hosp 8 dead 85 Recovered	14th = 8/285 32 Hosp 9 dead 98 Recovered	15th= 8/293 34 Hosp 9 dead 106 Recovered	16th= 7/300 35 hosp 9 dead 110 recovered	17th=  9/309 36 hosp 9 dead 128 recovered	18th =  5/315 36 hos 9 dead 147 Recovered	19th= 4/319 36 hos 9 dead 153Recovered
20th 2/321 36 hos 9 dead 161 recovered	21st 8/329 36 hos 9 dead 168 recovered	22nd  6/335 36 hos  9 dead 196recovered	23nd  2/337 36 hos  9 dead 209recovered	24th  2/339 36 hos  9 dead 208recovered (-1 from 4/23)	25th  0/339 36 hos  9 dead 217recovered	26th  2/341 36 hos  9 dead 217recovered
27th  4/345 37 hos  9 dead 218recovered	28th  6/351 37 hos  9 dead 228 recovered	29th  4/355 36 hos  9 dead 240recovered	30th  0/355 36 hos  9 dead 252recovered
May 2020				1st  9/364 36 hos  9 dead 254recovered	2nd  1/365 36 hos  9 dead 261recovered	3rd  3/368 36 hos  9 dead 262recovered
4th  2/370 37 hos  9 dead 263recovered	5th  1/371 38 hos  9 dead 277 recovered	6th  1/372 38 hos 10 dead 284recovered	7th  2/374 38 hos 10 dead 291recovered	8th  3/377 38 hos 10 dead 305recovered	9th  1/378 38 hos 10 dead 318recovered

State Charts

This screen shot is high resolution so you can click on it to enlarge and focus.  But click here if you want to use the chart interactively, to play with the original and see other charts they have.



My Day-To-Day Chart

Alaska Covid-19 Data NewFor... by Steve on Scribd

My Letter Today To Senator Lisa Murkowski

Senator,

The time to take action was a while ago. Further delay will be disastrous.   I urge you to find enough Republican colleagues to block all legislation in the Senate that further empowers Trump and erodes our crumbling democracy.

I don't pretend to understand the pressures you are under.  I wrote to you during impeachment that if you didn't stand up against Trump then, Trump would cause incalculable damage at the next major crisis.  (Not that the day-to-day blows against democracy, the dismantling of the US' alliances around the world, the horrors against immigrants,  the dismantling of women's rights, the attacks on our intelligence services, etc. weren't all outrages of their own.)  And now, a couple of months after the Senate passed on the chance to impeach Trump, or even just hear more witnesses and review documents,  we have the virus.
Trump is at the helm causing through his action and inaction, his encouragement of armed protest against governors, his promotion of untested cures, the needless deaths of tens of thousands of Americans.  He won't increase tests because "too much testing makes the US look bad."   Meanwhile all the professional health experts say testing is essential to stopping the virus.
I urge you as strongly as I can to recruit five or six  Republican Senators  (or whatever number is needed to stop Trump's mismanagement of the COVID crisis and his dismantling of democracy) who have the courage to say "No More."  To vote, as a block, against legislation that strengthens Trump or supports his refusal to let his appointees testify.  To vote against appointments until there is legislation that insures fair elections (stopping voter roll purges, shutting down polling places in minority neighborhoods, blocking vote by mail during this pandemic, etc.), and that insures the continuation of the US Post Office as we know it. This is a particular issue in rural Alaska.

My mother went to school in the 1930s in Germany.  She experienced the rise of Hitler and she managed to get out at age 17 in August 1939. Her parents didn't make it out and I never knew any of my grandparents because my father's parents also died, victims of Hitler. I've only begun to fully understand recently, as I interact with my own grandchildren,  how great a loss it is to not know your grandparents.

My mother always told me when I was growing up that it could happen here.  Trump's actions and the Senate's failure to check his power is making my mother's prophecy reality.   If Trump is reelected he will feel no need to follow any rules but his own.   He's already pardoning all his convicted cronies and now Barr has had the DOJ drop charges against Michael Flynn.  A fair justice system, a foundation of democracy, is crumbling before our eyes.

If this isn't the time to take bold action, there is no such time for you and other Republican Senators.  
I have told anyone who asks that I suspected you were keeping a low profile until you could do something.  But I'm afraid you have waited too long.  

I pray that you focus on finding enough Senate colleagues that you can stop this president from further destroying the United States.  Even if he is not reelected, he would be able, with the current Republican Senate majority, to continue to do damage and to make the US a second rate country until January 2021.

You can't keep waiting.  Time is up.  Our democracy is at stake.

Alaska COVID-19 Count Thursday May 7, 2020 - 3 New Cases 14 New Recoveries

So far my concerns last week about loosening restrictions last week are proving unfounded.  Alaska's numbers seem to be low enough that we haven't yet had a rebound.  I'm still concerned about the influx of Outside fishers coming into small communities all over Alaska.  I don't have faith in voluntary isolation.  Especially among a population of risk-takers. (Fishing is one of the most dangerous professions there is.)  Nor am I confident in the sea-food industry to put health over profit. There's been one report already of a cannery worker testing positive in Cordova.  But at least he was tested (negative) before arriving and tested again after arriving.  The report says he's being tested a third time to see if it was a false positive.  But those three tests in a short period of time show the pressing need for LOTS of tests.

The three new cases are all in Anchorage.


My Calendar Chart

CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH/APRIL/May 2020
Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
new/total	hos=hospital		12th  = 0/0	13th = 1/1	14th = 0/1	15th = 0/1
16th = 0/1	17th = 2/3	18th = 3/6	19th = 3/9	20th = 3/12	21st= 2/14	22nd= 8/22
23rd=14/36	24th =6/42 1 hos 1 dead	25th = 17/59 3 hos 1 dead	26th = 10/69 3 hos 1 dead	27th =16/89 5 hos 2 dead	28th = 13/102 6 hos 2 dead	29th= 12/114 7 hos  3 dead
30th=5/119 7 hos 3 dead	31st= 14/133 9 hos 3 dead
April 2020		1st=  10/143 9 hos 3 dead	2nd=8(6)/149 13 hos 3 dead	3rd=8(11)157 15 hos 3 dead	4th=15/171 16 hos 5 dead	5th= 14/185 20 hos 6 dead
6th=6/191 23 hosp 6 dead	7th= 22/213 23 hosp 6 Dead29 recovered	8th= 13/226 27 hosp 7 dead 32 recovered	9th= 9/235 27 hosp 7 dead 49 recovered	10th=11/246 28 hosp 7 dead 55 recovered	11th=11/257 31 hosp 8 dead 63 recovered	12th= 15/272 31 hosp 8 dead 66 recovered
13th= 5/277 32 Hosp 8 dead 85 Recovered	14th = 8/285 32 Hosp 9 dead 98 Recovered	15th= 8/293 34 Hosp 9 dead 106 Recovered	16th= 7/300 35 hosp 9 dead 110 recovered	17th=  9/309 36 hosp 9 dead 128 recovered	18th =  5/315 36 hos 9 dead 147 Recovered	19th= 4/319 36 hos 9 dead 153Recovered
20th 2/321 36 hos 9 dead 161 recovered	21st 8/329 36 hos 9 dead 168 recovered	22nd  6/335 36 hos  9 dead 196recovered	23nd  2/337 36 hos  9 dead 209recovered	24th  2/339 36 hos  9 dead 208recovered (-1 from 4/23)	25th  0/339 36 hos  9 dead 217recovered	26th  2/341 36 hos  9 dead 217recovered
27th  4/345 37 hos  9 dead 218recovered	28th  6/351 37 hos  9 dead 228 recovered	29th  4/355 36 hos  9 dead 240recovered	30th  0/355 36 hos  9 dead 252recovered
May 2020				1st  9/364 36 hos  9 dead 254recovered	2nd  1/365 36 hos  9 dead 261recovered	3rd  3/368 36 hos  9 dead 262recovered
4th  2/370 37 hos  9 dead 263recovered	5th  1/371 38 hos  9 dead 277 recovered	6th  1/372 38 hos 10 dead 284recovered	7th  2/374 38 hos 10 dead 291recovered	8th  3/377 38 hos 10 dead 305 recovered

State Charts

This screen shot is high resolution so you can click on it to enlarge and focus.  But click here if you want to use the chart interactively, to play with the original and see other charts they have.



My Day-To-Day Chart

Alaska Covid-19 Data NewFor... by Steve on Scribd

I'd note there were, according to the numbers from the State, 1,132 new tests yesterday.