George Washington: "Individuals entering into society must give up a share of liberty to preserve the rest."

Screenshot of FB Live Coverage of Michigan Protest

I watched the Michigan protests live last Wednesday and heard people complaining about losing their income and losing their businesses.

I understand those folks whose businesses are going under, whose jobs are gone and whose bills threaten to ruin them financially.  I understand those people who don't know how they'll pay for food. I understand their frustration with the closing off of much of the economy.  (No, I'm lucky that I don't feel it, but I understand it.)  It's rational to want your life to continue on normally, and even not care if some people die because of it.  After all, we allow people to drive cars knowing that some 30,000 or so people will die in car crashes every year.

But we've had 39,000 deaths in the last seven weeks or so and without the self-isolation that's been imposed, that number would be a lot higher.  And the people out protesting without social distancing and without masks are going to make the numbers higher than they should be.

But they have a point - there's a balance between individual freedom and the good of all.  As I believe

Screenshot of FB Live Coverage of Michigan Protest

that there is great deal of difference among Americans in how well they understand how much we all affected - for good and bad - by what others do.

For those who are loudly and self-righteously declaring their personal rights to do whatever they want, I'd like to direct them to the letter of transmittal of the draft US Constitution to the Congress, signed by George Washington, in which he wrote:

"Individuals entering into society must give up a share of liberty to preserve the rest. The magnitude of the sacrifice must depend as well on situation and circumstance, as on the object to be obtained. It is at all times difficult to draw with precision the line between those rights which must be surrendered, and those which may be preserved;"

There are options available that include helping out those with small businesses and those who have lost their jobs without jeopardizing the health and lives of other Americans.  Congress has already passed legislation to give out cash to people below a certain level of income.  To help out small businesses.  To postpone the payment of rent and other debts.  If the protestors are concerned that so much of that went to friends and donors of members of Congress and the President, their protests are directed at the wrong targets.

The Bible tells us about Jubilee years where all debts are forgiven and people begin again.  This might be a good time for that.

If that's too extreme for some, we could simply freeze the economy for several months.  Turn it off and then start it up when it's safer.  No new debts would be accrued.  We'd start over again as if April through July (or whenever it's safe) never happened.

Alaska COVID-19 Count Tuesday April 21, 2020 - Decline Ends - 8 More Cases

We went from 9 new cases on Friday, to 5 on Saturday, to 4 on Sunday, and 2 on Monday. I should note that the days reflect when the numbers were reported and reflect the previous day.  And today we're up to 8 new cases.  But perhaps that reflects we started a new 'work-week' (whatever that means right now).  The low numbers were actually on the weekend.  I had hoped today would be zero new cases.

On the bright side, there have been no new deaths in 8 days and no new hospitalizations in 5 days.

My Calendar Chart

CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH/APRIL 2020
Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
new/total	hos=hospital		12th  = 0/0	13th = 1/1	14th = 0/1	15th = 0/1
16th = 0/1	17th = 2/3	18th = 3/6	19th = 3/9	20th = 3/12	21st= 2/14	22nd= 8/22
23rd=14/36	24th =6/42 1 hos 1 dead	25th = 17/59 3 hos 1 dead	26th = 10/69 3 hos 1 dead	27th =16/89 5 hos 2 dead	28th = 13/102 6 hos 2 dead	29th= 12/114 7 hos  3 dead
30th=5/119 7 hos 3 dead	31st= 14/133 9 hos 3 dead
April 2020		1st=  10/143 9 hos 3 dead	2nd=8(6)/149 13 hos 3 dead	3rd=8(11)157 15 hos 3 dead	4th=15/171 16 hos 5 dead	5th= 14/185 20 hos 6 dead
6th=6/191 23 hosp 6 dead	7th= 22/213 23 hosp 6 Dead29 recovered	8th= 13/226 27 hosp 7 dead 32 recovered	9th= 9/235 27 hosp 7 dead 49 recovered	10th=11/246 28 hosp 7 dead 55 recovered	11th=11/257 31 hosp 8 dead 63 recovered	12th= 15/272 31 hosp 8 dead 66 recovered
13th= 5/277 32 Hosp 8 dead 85 Recovered	14th = 8/285 32 Hosp 9 dead 98 Recovered	15th= 8/293 34 Hosp 9 dead 106 Recovered	16th= 7/300 35 hosp 9 dead 110 recovered	17th=  9/309 36 hosp 9 dead 128 recovered	18th =  5/315 36 hos 9 dead 147 Recovered	19th= 4/319 36 hos 9 dead 153Recovered
20th 2/321 36 hos 9 dead 161 recovered	21st 8/329 36 hos 9 dead 168 recovered
		Hospital and dead figures are total to date, not new on that date

State Charts

Again - the chart above is a high resolution screen shot.  If you click on it, it will enlarge and focus.  But only the chart below is interactive.  Scroll right to see it all, run your cursor over it to see all the bells and whistles.  Or go to the original at the State site.  And remember to scroll back to the left to see the rest of the post. 

Cases depicted above represent permanent residency of the infected person, and may not reflect where the person is located currently, or was located when exposed or diagnosed.

My day-by-day chart

There are two pages now, so in the box you have to scroll down to the latest numbers.

Alaska Covid-19 Data NewFor... by Steve on Scribd

Trump's Numbers Dilemma

Trump tipped his hand* about keeping COVID-19 numbers low in early March.  From Business Insider:

"I like the numbers being where they are. I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault," Trump said in a Fox News interview.

On March 7, 2020 there were 275 identified cases in the US.   A month later, on April 7, there were 395,926 identified cases!  1,439 times more.  And today there are 746,625 identified cases! And most certainly a lot more that haven't been identified.

My guess is the US government hasn't ramped up testing as all the experts recommend because Trump wants to keep the numbers as low as possible.  Tests will significantly add to the number of people with COVID-19 on his watch.

Trump is a numbers guy.  I don't mean he's necessarily good with math, but he takes numbers as symbols of value.  He's always trying to impress people with his personal wealth.  (Except when he was paying taxes, then he worked to lower his wealth.)  He regularly touts how high the stock market climbed under his presidency - well, until the last month or so.

And now that the economy isn't producing great numbers, he wants to let people go back to work and 'get the economy going again.'  But all the health experts, even the CEOs of the largest corporations, are saying you need widespread testing before people can go back to work.

So, to get the economic numbers up, he needs to allow massive COVID testing which will get those numbers up.  He's caught between two bad numbers options.  There's no judge or senator he can bribe or threaten, no plaintiff he can pay off to make his dilemma go away.  And most of the media refuse to sign a non-disclosure agreement.

So I think that also explains his turnaround from "The president has total authority" one day to "The governors can decide" the next.  He's pushing the responsibility for the dilemma of the COVID numbers and the economic numbers onto the governors.

But then he turns around again and urges people to "liberate" their states from their governors distancing rules.

I'd say he's spinning out of control, except that would imply he was ever in control.


*I realized, as I wrote "tipped his hand" that I'd never actually visualized metaphor, but I did as I wrote it today.  From the Free Dictionary:

"tip (one's) hand
To reveal one's intentions, plans, secrets, or resources. An allusion to letting someone else see the cards one is currently holding (one's "hand")."

Alaska COVID-19 Count Monday April 20, 2020 - Just 2 More Cases!

There were only 2 more cases and 8 more recoveries.  Half of the total cases (321) are recovered (161) and 9 more have passed away. (I'm assuming they aren't counted among the recovered.)  That means there are 151 identified active cases in Alaska.

The last time there were only 2 new cases was March 21!

One standard for loosening the self isolation is 14 days with 0 new cases. The last time there were zero new cases was March 16.

Wide spread testing is also important to catch those with the virus who are asymptomatic, and then tracing and testing their contacts.


My Calendar Chart

CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH/APRIL 2020
Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
new/total	hos=hospital		12th  = 0/0	13th = 1/1	14th = 0/1	15th = 0/1
16th = 0/1	17th = 2/3	18th = 3/6	19th = 3/9	20th = 3/12	21st= 2/14	22nd= 8/22
23rd=14/36	24th =6/42 1 hos 1 dead	25th = 17/59 3 hos 1 dead	26th = 10/69 3 hos 1 dead	27th =16/89 5 hos 2 dead	28th = 13/102 6 hos 2 dead	29th= 12/114 7 hos  3 dead
30th=5/119 7 hos 3 dead	31st= 14/133 9 hos 3 dead
April 2020		1st=  10/143 9 hos 3 dead	2nd=8(6)/149 13 hos 3 dead	3rd=8(11)157 15 hos 3 dead	4th=15/171 16 hos 5 dead	5th= 14/185 20 hos 6 dead
6th=6/191 23 hosp 6 dead	7th= 22/213 23 hosp 6 Dead29 recovered	8th= 13/226 27 hosp 7 dead 32 recovered	9th= 9/235 27 hosp 7 dead 49 recovered	10th=11/246 28 hosp 7 dead 55 recovered	11th=11/257 31 hosp 8 dead 63 recovered	12th= 15/272 31 hosp 8 dead 66 recovered
13th= 5/277 32 Hosp 8 dead 85 Recovered	14th = 8/285 32 Hosp 9 dead 98 Recovered	15th= 8/293 34 Hosp 9 dead 106 Recovered	16th= 7/300 35 hosp 9 dead 110 recovered	17th=  9/309 36 hosp 9 dead 128 recovered	18th =  5/315 36 hos 9 dead 147 Recovered	19th= 4/319 36 hos 9 dead 153Recovered
20th 2/321 36 hos 9 dead 161 recovered

State Charts

Again - the chart above is a high resolution screen shot.  If you click on it, it will enlarge and focus.  But only the chart below is interactive.  Scroll right to see it all, run your cursor over it to see all the bells and whistles.  Or go to the original at the State site.  And remember to scroll back to the left to see the rest of the post. 

My day-to-day chart

It's two pages now, so you need to go to page 2 to see the latest numbers.

Alaska Covid-19 Data NewFor... by Steve on Scribd

Socially Distanced Bike Ride - With One Distinctly Unsocial Incident

Went for a bike ride yesterday.  Further beyond the neighborhood this time.  We're still in a serious self-isolation, so I had some concerns about being able to maintain a 6 foot separation if there were others on the bike trail.

Not far from home, I passed the Lake Otis drive by COVID-19 testing site.  Not much activity.

I wanted to check out something on Tudor and as I was getting close to my destination, someone was walking toward me in a spot that had little room.  I detoured into a parking lot to let him pass by.  As we was just past, another guy was coming across the street toward me.  I'm assuming he was homeless and high on something as he came towards me yelling, loudly and menacingly, "Get the fuck out of there" over and over again.

One thing I hadn't worried about was someone intentionally coming at me.  Until then.   There was room for me to bike out of the way and I gave up my original destination and biked back to Lake Otis and headed south.







Here's Campbell Creek from the bridge.










And the playground.  There was yellow police tape at the equipment, but it had been torn down and was on the ground.

There were lots of motorcycles on the road.  The streets are all clear of ice and snow and it was in the low 50s.  The bike path along the streets was also clear and there's enough room for people to pass with SD if both get on the edge or just off the path.  During about the four mile loop, I passed twelve others on my side of the street - four on bikes, two with dogs, and one with two little kids.

I had a neck warmer that I could pull up over my nose as a mask when I passed others.  Alaska's statistics are good, and I'm probably being obsessive, but getting in the bike ride was mentally and physically joyful, and so a little mask wasn't that much effort.

Though the aggressive guy did spook me - more after the fact than at the time.  Is someone coming up to you in a pandemic and touching you, coughing or spitting at your face, like a zombie attack?  He didn't do any of those things, but he could have.  I'm wondering if the building near the parking lot was a space homeless people are using and he just didn't want me nosing around.  I was just using the parking lot to let another pedestrian get past me, but I he didn't know that.  I just have no idea what it was about.


 I turned east at Dowling and then back north at Elmore.  Here's the south fork of Campbell Creek from Elmore.

Just past it there was a green tent hidden in the trees.  I don't like to jump to conclusions, like saying 'a homeless tent' but it's not likely anyone was doing recreational camping in that spot.