Alaska COVID-19 Count Sunday April 19, 2020 - Below Rt = 1 - New #s Are Good

• 5 new cases
• No new deaths
• No new hospitalizations
• 6 more recovered

To put this into another context the chart below, shows Alaska's Rt value:

These are up-to-date values for Rt, a key measure of how fast the virus is growing. It’s the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If Rt is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading. Learn More.  (Link shows all states, spoiler - we're the 7th best, 15 are 1 or below.) (I added the red - it's not hard, but you have to pay attention.)

In early April we went below 1  (how many people each infected person infects) - which, means the virus will stop spreading.  If we continue at this rate.  Isolation matters.  And testing.  We're doing well on isolation, not well at all on testing.  Testing will allow more people to do limited work.  We need more tests in the US.

But let's also remember that without widespread testing, we don't really know how many people are infected.  But the slow growth of new cases and new hospitalizations and new deaths is a good sign.


My Calendar Chart

CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH/APRIL 2020
Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
new/total	hos=hospital		12th  = 0/0	13th = 1/1	14th = 0/1	15th = 0/1
16th = 0/1	17th = 2/3	18th = 3/6	19th = 3/9	20th = 3/12	21st= 2/14	22nd= 8/22
23rd=14/36	24th =6/42 1 hos 1 dead	25th = 17/59 3 hos 1 dead	26th = 10/69 3 hos 1 dead	27th =16/89 5 hos 2 dead	28th = 13/102 6 hos 2 dead	29th= 12/114 7 hos  3 dead
30th=5/119 7 hos 3 dead	31st= 14/133 9 hos 3 dead
April 2020		1st=  10/143 9 hos 3 dead	2nd=8(6)/149 13 hos 3 dead	3rd=8(11)157 15 hos 3 dead	4th=15/171 16 hos 5 dead	5th= 14/185 20 hos 6 dead
6th=6/191 23 hosp 6 dead	7th= 22/213 23 hosp 6 Dead29 recovered	8th= 13/226 27 hosp 7 dead 32 recovered	9th= 9/235 27 hosp 7 dead 49 recovered	10th=11/246 28 hosp 7 dead 55 recovered	11th=11/257 31 hosp 8 dead 63 recovered	12th= 15/272 31 hosp 8 dead 66 recovered
13th= 5/277 32 Hosp 8 dead 85 Recovered	14th = 8/285 32 Hosp 9 dead 98 Recovered	15th= 8/293 34 Hosp 9 dead 106 Recovered	16th= 7/300 35 hosp 9 dead 110 recovered	17th=  9/309 36 hosp 9 dead 128 recovered	18th =  5/315 36 hos 9 dead 147 Recovered	19th= 4/319 36 hos 9 dead 153Recovered
		Hospital and dead figures are total to date, not new on that date

State Charts

Like every other day, this chart can be enlarged and focused with a click.  But it's a screenshot, so you have to use the chart below for interactivity.  Just play with your cursor over the chart to find lots of interesting numbers and options.   Or go to the original at the State site.  

Cases depicted above represent permanent residency of the infected person, and may not reflect where the person is located currently, or was located when exposed or diagnosed.

My day-by-day chart

There are two pages in the chart now so you have to scroll down to see the latest numbers.

Alaska Covid-19 Data NewFor... by Steve on Scribd

Alaska COVID-19 Count Saturday April 18, 2020 -What Numbers Say About Age

Before looking at today's numbers (and there's some good news),  I'd like to compare the State's graph on Cases by Age Group to the state's actual age group percentages.

Orange is the COVID distribution by age.
Aqua is the state's distribution by population.  I've put these #s on top of the orange chart to make it easier to compare.  Then I've marked the difference between percent of population by age in general and percent of population that tested positive.

So, COVID cases for people

• under 20 are well below their actual percent of population.
• 20-29 and 80+  are equal to their population in the state
• 30 - 69 are all above their statewide populations from +3% to +6%
• 70-79 is just +1%

So,

• Kids (under 20) are doing great as has been predicted by other rates in other countries.
• People in their 20s make up 15% of COVID cases, the same as their population
• People in their 30s make up 21% of COVID cases, making them both the highest in infection and having the greatest difference over their actual population (6%)
• People in their 40s make up 15% of COVID cases but they are only 12% of the population  
• People in their 50s are second highest ABOVE their actual population - they make up 18% of the COVID cases but only 13% of the population.
• People in their 60s are 4% above their actual population. 
• People in their 70s are just 1% above their actual population
• People 80+ are infected in the same percentage as their actual percentage of the population

I suspect that the two oldest groups are the most self-isolated groups, which, if true, would show a good correlation between isolation and getting infected.  And those in their 30s, 40s, and 50s are probably people who are most likely not isolating as effectively as they work and do essential errands.

But all these numbers are based on actual confirmed tested cases and we know that we've only tested a small percent of the population.

OK, for today's numbers.

My calendar chart

CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH/APRIL 2020
Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
new/total	hos=hospital		12th  = 0/0	13th = 1/1	14th = 0/1	15th = 0/1
16th = 0/1	17th = 2/3	18th = 3/6	19th = 3/9	20th = 3/12	21st= 2/14	22nd= 8/22
23rd=14/36	24th =6/42 1 hos 1 dead	25th = 17/59 3 hos 1 dead	26th = 10/69 3 hos 1 dead	27th =16/89 5 hos 2 dead	28th = 13/102 6 hos 2 dead	29th=12/114 7 hos  3 dead
30th=5/119 7 hos 3 dead	31st= 14/133 9 hos 3 dead
April 2020		1st=  10/143 9 hos 3 dead	2nd=8(6)/149 13 hos 3 dead	3rd=8(11)157 15 hos 3 dead	4th=15/171 16 hos 5 dead	5th=14/185 20 hos 6 dead
6th=6/191 23 hosp 6 dead	7th= 22/213 23 hosp 6 Dead 29 recovered	8th= 13/226 27 hosp 7 dead 32 recovered	9th= 9/235 27 hosp 7 dead 49 recovered	10th=11/246 28 hosp 7 dead 55 recovered	11th=11/257 31 hosp 8 dead 63 recovered	12th= 15/272 31 hosp 8 dead 66 recovered
13th= 5/277 32 Hosp 8 dead 85 Recovered	14th = 8/285 32 Hosp 9 dead 98 Recovered	15th= 8/293 34 Hosp 9 dead 106 Recovered	16th= 7/300 35 hosp 9 dead 110 recovered	17th=  9/309 36 hosp 9 dead 128 recovered	18th =  5/315 36 hos 9 dead 147 Recovered
		Hospital and dead figures are total to date, not new on that date

THE GOOD NEWS
Our peak number of new cases was April 7 with 22.
Today we only had 5 new cases, the lowest number since March 30.
We've also gone 5 days now without a new death.  That's the most number of days without a new death since the first death on March 24.


STATE CHARTS

Again - the chart above is a high resolution screen shot.  If you click on it, it will enlarge and focus.  But only the chart below is interactive.  Scroll right to see it all, run your cursor over it to see all the bells and whistles.  Or go to the original at the State site.  And remember to scroll back to the left to see the rest of the post.

Cases depicted above represent permanent residency of the infected person, and may not reflect where the person is located currently, or was located when exposed or diagnosed.

My day-by-day Chart

Alaska Covid-19 Data NewFor... by Steve on Scribd

All these daily Alaska COVID-19 Count posts can be accessed here.  (You will have to click "older posts" at the bottom to see additional pages since these take up a lot of room.)

Alaska COVID-19 Count Friday April 17, 2020 - 9 More Cases

As I look at today's numbers, what stands out is that the state reports over 700 more tests yesterday.
So nine new cases is just over 1% positive of those tested.  This Atlantic article says the US has, overall, a 20% "test positivity rate."  Here's an short excerpt:

According to the Tracking Project’s figures, nearly one in five people who get tested for the coronavirus in the United States is found to have it. In other words, the country has what is called a “test-positivity rate” of nearly 20 percent.

That is “very high,” Jason Andrews, an infectious-disease professor at Stanford, told us. Such a high test-positivity rate almost certainly means that the U.S. is not testing everyone who has been infected with the pathogen, because it implies that doctors are testing only people with a very high probability of having the infection. People with milder symptoms, to say nothing of those with none at all, are going undercounted. Countries that test broadly should encounter far more people who are not infected than people who are, so their test-positivity rate should be lower.  

Now, that 1% was just based on the number of tests and number of new cases reported yesterday.  Those numbers don't necessarily get reported on the days the actually happened, so that doesn't really mean much.  If we take our total number of positives - 309 - and divide by the number of tests - 9450 - we get 3.2%, which is still comfortably low.  The article says South Korea has a 2% test positivity rate, because they have tested so many people.  Australia and New Zealand are also at 2% according to the article.

So far then, we're doing pretty well.

CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH/APRIL 2020
Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
new/total	hos=hospital		12th  = 0/0	13th = 1/1	14th = 0/1	15th = 0/1
16th = 0/1	17th = 2/3	18th = 3/6	19th = 3/9	20th = 3/12	21st= 2/14	22nd= 8/22
23rd=14/36	24th =6/42 1 hos 1 dead	25th = 17/59 3 hos 1 dead	26th = 10/69 3 hos 1 dead	27th =16/89 5 hos 2 dead	28th = 13/102 6 hos 2 dead	29th=12/114 7 hos  3 dead
30th=5/119 7 hos 3 dead	31st= 14/133 9 hos 3 dead
April 2020		1st=  10/143 9 hos 3 dead	2nd=8(6)/149 13 hos 3 dead	3rd=8(11)157 15 hos 3 dead	4th=15/171 16 hos 5 dead	5th=14/185 20 hos 6 dead
6th=6/191 23 hosp 6 dead	7th= 22/213 23 hosp 6 Dead29 recovered	8th= 13/226 27 hosp 7 dead 32 recovered	9th= 9/235 27 hosp 7 dead 49 recovered	10th=11/246 28 hosp 7 dead 55 recovered	11th=11/257 31 hosp 8 dead 63 recovered	12th= 15/272 31 hosp 8 dead 66 recovered
13th= 5/277 32 Hosp 8 dead 85 Recovered	14th = 8/285 32 Hosp 9 dead 98 Recovered	15th= 8/293 34 Hosp 9 dead 106 Recovered	16th= 7/300 35 hosp 9 dead 110 recovered	17th=  9/309 36 hosp 9 dead 128 recovered
		Hospital and dead figures are total to date, not new on that date

State Charts

Above is a screenshot.  You can enlarge and focus it by clicking on it, but you have to go to the actual interactive chart below if you want to play with it.  You need to scroll right to see it all, but don't forget to scroll back to see the rest of the post.

Yesterday, with my technical difficulties, I forgot to mention that they've added a new category of tests.  They've had State Labs, Private Labs, and now they've added Hospitals.  It's in red on that chart on testing. Like all the boxes in these charts, there are tabs that allow you to see the info differently, so play with them a bit.

Cases depicted above represent permanent residency of the infected person, and may not reflect where the person is located currently, or was located when exposed or diagnosed.

My day-by-day chart

Alaska Covid-19 Data NewFor... by Steve on Scribd