Mystery Spots, Floating Bear, Changing Neighborhoods

The two year old mirror in the back bathroom at my mom's house had developed dark round spots here and there.  A mystery.  And a project.  I loosened the brackets that were holding it up, only to discover there was glue involved too.  Youtube showed me how to remove a mirror with glue.  Fortunately I followed the advice and taped it well because it did break into pieces.  Someone else gave me advice to wear long sleeves.

When I got the mirror off, I found out the source of the mystery spots.  All the spots were where the glue was on the back of the mirror.

Another youtube showed me how to glue a new mirror up.  I needed mirror adhesive.

On the way to the hardware store, I passed this new (to me) mural.  It's much easier to stop and take a picture when you're on your bike.

@TJN3FF did this great bear mural - though it looks more like an otter pose than a bear pose.  If you go to his instagram page you'll see at least one more that I've posted in the past.

While I was at the hardware store, some clouds came over and there were even scattered raindrops. We have drizzle (it wasn't), shower, rain, downpour (none of them), but we don't have a word I know of for 10-15 raindrops per square meter per minute.

I'd notice this boxy modern new house going up on the way.  I was particularly struck by the steps to the roof.  I thought they looked very cool, but I know they're going to get a railing before long, and that's probably a good idea.





But on the way back I was thinking about the way this neighborhood is changing.  Up on this small hill, the houses tend to be bigger than the bungalows in the flatter area, but this one is still bigger and a stark contrast in style.  Here are a couple of the neighboring houses:

This is within a mile of my mom's house, but a totally different neighborhood

Back in 2007 I posted some pictures of some of the original subdivision houses in my mom's neighborhood along with some of the newer, much larger ones that have replaced the originals.

In the 12 years or so since I did the 2007 post, Google and other high tech companies have moved in between these neighborhoods and the beach.  So there are lots of affluent young tech folks buying up old houses, demolishing them, and building much bigger ones.  And there are also developers doing the same and then putting them up for sale.  

I grew up in a three bedroom, one and a half bath house - a family of four.  It seemed plenty big at the time, but it's only about 1200 square feet.  And not cleverly designed to use the space to its fullest.  

And I'd note there was a tent encampment along the sidewalk by the post office near the hardware store.  That hadn't been there last time.  

What Happens To Jurors Who Work To Get Defendants Acquitted?

Senate President McConnell has said he's working with Trump in preparation for the impeachment trial in the Senate and that there will be a quick acquittal.  Given that, it seemed appropriate to consider what can happen when a juror does this in a court trial.  Here's an example:

From the American Bar Association Journal:

Jovanda Blackson, a prospective juror in the Superior Court of the District of Columbia, answered no to each of those questions during voir dire last year, ensuring her place on the panel that would decide the fate of two men charged with murder.
Trouble is, Blackson did know one of the defendants. She did know his wife. And, while this mother of three had no criminal record, a couple of her relatives—including her brother—did.
Unfortunately, the judge and prosecutors didn’t know that until after Blackson succeeded in hanging the jury, prompting a mistrial for both defendants. Only later, thanks to a tip from a jailhouse informant, were suspicions from her fellow jurors confirmed and the truth emerged.
Blackson had known the defendant from grade school. When she appeared for jury duty, prosecutors say, Blackson recognized him, winked to let him know she would take care of him, and later conspired with his wife to either convince her fellow jurors to acquit or hold out for a mistrial.
Blackson is serving 61⁄2 years [published in 2006] behind bars after pleading guilty in May to conspiracy, contempt and obstruction of justice. The man she attempted to help, Lamiek K. Fortson, and his co defendant, Harry Ellis, are serving time too, having been retried and convicted, and an obstruction offense was added to Fortson’s record. Fortson’s wife, Erica Williams, was given a 74 month suspended sentence, five years of supervised release, 500 hours of community service and a $250 fine.

And in court trials, there's the process known as voir dire, where attorneys from both sides can dismiss jurors they feel are biased or likely to vote against their client.  They're estimating this process will take at least two weeks in the Weinstein trial that started this week.

Here are some notes from the Judicial Education Center at the University of New Mexico:

"Judicial Participation in Voir Dire
The judge overseeing voir dire, who is listening first hand to the attorneys' questions and the jury panel members' responses, is in the best position to determine whether voir dire has sufficiently exposed any biases that may preclude jurors from acting fairly and impartially. State v. Martinez, 2002-NMCA-036, ¶35. As previously noted, the judge has the right to control and limit voir dire with the limitation being the ultimate need for fairness in the process. To ensure fairness in the process to both the prosecution and defense, the judge should consider doing the following regarding voir dire:
Determine in advance how much time to allow for voir dire, advise the attorneys of that allotted time frame and work to ensure that it is divided as equally as possible between the two sides.
If the need arises to step in to resolve a dispute between the parties or deal with an objection, call the attorneys to the bench and take care of it outside the earshot of the jury panel. Alternatively, remove the jury panel from the courtroom and deal with the issue outside of its presence. The goal with either of these methods is to resolve the dispute and move on with voir dire while maintaining the critical neutrality of the judge and communicating that to the panel.
If asking the jury panel questions of his or her own, the judge should make efforts to do so sparingly and in a way that does not create the perception that the judge has "taken a side" in the case. In other words, in addition to working to ensure fairness between the prosecution and defense, the judge wants to present him or herself as being fair to both parties and neutral in the case. This is especially critical in stalking and harassment cases where the behavior can be seen as bizarre on its face and responses provided by jury panelists during voir dire can perhaps promote similar responses and reactions."

One might hope that Chief Justice John Roberts would be thinking about these issues.  Except that this is not a judicial trial.  Due Process - which gives the accused the right to a fair trail before their life, liberty, or property is taken away - is not the standard here.  President Trump doesn't risk jail, execution, or even a fine if he's found guilty.

This is more like firing someone for not performing his job duties satisfactorily.  Just cause - the idea that there must be a violation of the rules - is the standard when one is fired.

Perhaps a major news outlet could track down Jovanda Blackson today and interview her about the consequences of colluding with the defendant to hang a jury.  Right after having Sen. McConnell brag about working with the White House.

Can You Guess The Mission Of The Center For Consumer Freedom?

I'd seen the full page ad in the LA Times.  There were two lists of chemicals.

From Center for Consumer Freedom

 The tiny line on the bottom says, "Paid for by the Center for Consumer Freedom."  My guess was this was paid for by the beef industry.   But I had other things to do than pursue this.

Then today's LA Times had an editorial titled:

Beef sellers vs. faux meat  (In the print version)

The beef industry is freaking out over plant-based meat? Too bad (online version)

It starts out telling us the impossible burger is hard to tell from the real thing.  And that's scaring the meat industry which put out this ad through the Center for Consumer Freedom.  There used to be research institutes that did reasonably objective research.  Places like the Rand Corporation and the Brookings Institute.  They may have some built in bias, but they had really smart researchers and they aimed at giving their clients the most accurate information they could.  When wealthy conservatives saw the influences these 'think tanks' had, they began creating their own which would produce 'research' that supported their political pet projects.  

Here's what the website Consumer Deception found when they asked "Consumer Freedom or Deception?"

"The Center for Consumer Freedom is a nonprofit corporation run by lobbyist Richard Berman through his Washington, D.C.-based for-profit public relations company, Berman & Co. The Center for Consumer Freedom, formerly known as the Guest Choice Network, was set up by Berman with a $600,000 “donation” from tobacco company Philip Morris.
Berman arranges for large sums of corporate money to find its way into nonprofit societies of which he is the executive director. He then hires his own company as a consultant to these nonprofit groups. Of the millions of dollars “donated” by Philip Morris between the years 1995 and 1998, 49 percent to 79 percent went directly to Berman or Berman & Co."

Sourcewatch's introduction to its research on the Center for Consumer Freedom  says:

The Center for Consumer Freedom (CCF) (formerly called the "Guest Choice Network (GCN)") is a front group run by Rick Berman's PR firm Berman & Co., originally primarily for the benefit of restaurant, alcohol, tobacco and other industries. It runs media campaigns that oppose the efforts of scientists, doctors, health advocates, animal advocates, environmentalists and groups like Mothers Against Drunk Driving, calling them "the Nanny Culture -- the growing fraternity of food cops, health care enforcers, anti-meat activists, and meddling bureaucrats who 'know what's best for you.'"
More recently CMD revealed that the Milwaukee-based Bradley Foundation is funding CCF to attack environmental groups with pop-up websites, like the "BigGreenRadicals.com" website, as well as to assist and train other Bradley-funded organizations in crisis communications (more below).[1]
CCF changed its name to the Center for Organizational Research and Education in early 2014[2] but uses both names.
CCF is registered as a tax-exempt, non-profit organization under the IRS code 501(c)(3). Its advisory board is comprised mainly of representatives from the restaurant, meat and alcoholic beverage industries. As of its most recent (2015) tax filing, Berman was its principal officer and held its books.[3]

The LA Times, to their credit,  did a pretty strong editorial exposing the ad. Some excerpts:

"While it’s true that a plant-based meat alternative is processed — meaning altered in the preparation process, like just about everything else at the grocery store — and it’s true that eating one is not as healthy as say, a pile of raw vegetables, it’s best to take the ads with a generous pinch of salt. (Or sodium, which the ads correctly note is higher in precooked plant patties than in the beef kind.). . . "

"And if methylcellulose, a food thickener, sounds unappetizing, it’s really nothing compared with the E. coli or salmonella poisoning you can get from regular meat. The truth is that beef and other industrial meats are often packaged with things a lot more dangerous to human health than food additives. You want to talk about a public health threat? The widespread prophylactic use of human grade antibiotics in cows and other livestock has contributed greatly to the rise of lethal antibiotic-resistant organisms. . . "

Then they take a totally different tack.  They talk about eating burgers guilt free, because fake burgers don't increase climate change by cutting down the Amazon forest for cattle grazing.  And then they talk about the brutal lives that beef and chicken lead before being slaughtered.

"So why do we still do it [eat meat]? Because meat tastes soooooo good and is such an efficient source of protein. Plus, did we mention it’s so tasty? A plant-based meat that satisfies meat cravings and delivers protein but with a smaller climate footprint is a potential environmental game changer and the reason Impossible Foods was one of the recipients of the U.N. Global Climate Action Award in 2019. No wonder the meat industry is on guard."

What I take from this is:

1. Check the who the groups that sponsor such ads are.  If their name seems suspiciously goody-goody, look them up online.  There are lots of legitimate sites that check out such organizations and tell us who pays for them.  
2. Give credit to the LA Times for putting up a prominent editorial exposing an advertiser in their paper.  
3. Remember how much beef impacts climate change.   

Bike, Beach, Benny As My Knee And Weather Improve

My knee has a little more range of motion every day.  Lots of ice and anti-inflammatories.  Today, with the temperature in the mid-70s*, I seemed I had enough recovery in my leg to ride the bike.  And the weather was so deliciously perfect.

But things aren't all good in Southern California.  On the way to the beach I passed this small homeless encampment which wasn't here as recently as last July, the last time we were here.

There's about the same amount of stuff on the other side of the camper.










And even at Venice Beach there are more places where homeless folks have settled.  There were people near here in the past.  This is in the richest country in the world whose economy is doing so well that we have lots of multibillionaires.

I didn't want to overdo it, so I didn't go too far along the beach, even though the Sirens were calling me.

On the way home I took a picture of THIS palm tree that's been here a while.  I just  never had a chance to get it posted.  Vox says it's a cell phone tower.  The article also talks about other attempts in other locations to disguise electrical equipment.

"Over the past few decades, as cellphone networks have grown, thousands of antenna towers designed to look vaguely like trees have been built across the United States. Although these towers are intended to camouflage a tower's aesthetic impact on the landscape, they typically do the opposite: most look like what an alien from a treeless planet might create if told to imagine a tree."

That was my take as well.  

I also wanted to go to the cemetery today because the caretaker who keeps the jade plants for our departed family members' alive during most of the year only works there Mondays and Fridays.  And I wanted to thank him.  On the way we stopped for lunch at a Vegan Thai place.

My mom's got some famous neighbors, some of whom I've posted about in the past.  Today while we were looking for R, I found this marker.  Not sure how many of the younger folks even know who he is.  I remember him as a very funny man. But when I looked for some video, it was a different time.  But here's one with Bob Hope and Jack Benny.  





A good day to be here.  It's supposed to be a little cooler tomorrow.

And for those who wondered about the friend I mentioned the other day, who was going on the cruise through the Strait of Hormuz, well I got an email back from him.  He said that cruise isn't until March.  They had arrived in Cabo yesterday.  Still wondering if the March cruise is going to be rerouted.


*Really, just reporting, not gloating.  I hear it's actually cold in Anchorage these last few days.  I miss that too.

The Geography Of The Assassination of General Soleimani

I was hoping to post pictures of flowers or something like that today.  Australia is burning because we can't give up our luxuries to fight climate change.  But we are in a huge crisis of our president's making. We are focused on possible war with Iran.  (No I don't think it will be anything like a conventional war.  It will be a 21st Century guerrilla war, with lots of cyber terrorism.)

So let's just look at something simple - geography.  

Distance from Tehran to Baghdad.

For those with vision issues, and whose computers can't read text in images, Tehran is 433 miles from Baghdad.

Here's a map from StatsAmerica of all of the US within 425 miles of Washington DC. to get a sense of how far 432 miles is.

Distance from Iranian border to Bagdad.

Baghdad is 209 Km = 129 miles from the Iranian border


Distance from Washington DC to Bagdad.

DC is 10,009* km (or 6,219 miles) from Baghdad.
*different sites show slightly different distances.

Imagine if an avowed enemy of our country had troops within 130 miles of our border.  How would the US react?  (I'd note that when Castro took over in Cuba  (90 miles from the US border) he came to the US and ultimately both had issues with each other. And the US imposed an embargo on Cuba.  But when the Soviets put missiles in Cuba, we risked a nuclear war confronting Soviet ships coming to Cuba.)

If we only consider geography, it is clear that Iran has a much larger vested interest in what happens in Iraq than the US does.  Imagine if any country assassinated a top US official in while he was in Toronto or Acapulco. I was told the other night by an Iranian/American who had just returned that a special position had been created for Soleimani that made him, in essence, second in command.  Reuters says he reported only to the Supreme Commander.  CNBC quotes defense policy expert Roman Schweizer, 

"This is the equivalent of Iran killing the U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff or the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency and then taking credit for it."

The US came to be when a relatively small, rag-tag army, used some conventional and some essentially guerrilla warfare to defeat the greatest power in the world at that time.  Eventually the US took over that position.  In Vietnam we discovered that guerrilla soldiers, fighting for their own land, could defeat the world's most powerful conventional military.  And that's the way General Soleimani advanced what he saw as Iranian interests.  He killed a lot of Americans as well as civilians that way.  But the president has taken an action now that demonstrates his belief that  killing enemies is not wrong.

We couldn't win in Vietnam.  We haven't been able to win (whatever that might mean) in Afghanistan.  We can't win in Iraq.  What would it even mean to 'win' against Iran, 6,000 miles away?  Against people defending their homeland? Ask Iraq War vets in the United States how it felt to battle in a foreign land where they didn't speak the language or know the terrain.

The geography is telling.

Fact Checking Now This Devastating Collage Of Old Trump Clips On Soleimani and Iran

[UPDATE Jan 5, 2020:  Sorry, fixed the title from Here and Now to Now This.  It's an understandable, but unacceptable error.]

Here's the video.  But just as the Right is fed lie after lie by Fox and their collaborators, the Left needs to also be careful it's not taken in as well.  This video destroys Trump, but is it accurate.  First watch the video.

Trump didn't even know who Suleimani is/was 🤦‍♀️pic.twitter.com/8f1ChRLY2M

— Hear Me Roar (@Stop_Trump20) January 4, 2020

So let's check all the clips in this video:

1.  Trump interview with Hugh Hewitt Sept. 2015 on Soleimani

The first interview they excerpt comes from a Hugh Hewitt interview in September 2015.  Hewitt asks Trump what he thinks of Gen. Soleimani head of the Quds.  Trump hears Kurds and it takes awhile before that is cleared up.  Trump says he doesn't have to worry about Gotcha questions because all these guys will be gone before he becomes president.

The original Youtube of this conversation is here.  It's 6:11 minutes long.  It's really just audio with a cover picture that includes Hewitt and Trump..  Now Hear This has added new photos to make the video livelier, but the conversation is the same, though shortened considerably.

The Washington Examiner, a conservative paper, confirms this 2016 Trump interview with Hugh Hewitt about Soleimani


2.  Trump March 16, 2016 interview "I'm speaking with myself  . . ."

The second interview is a from a Morning Joe show on MSNBC on March 16, 2016.   They're talking about his primary victory in Florida the day before and he's asked who he consults with.

"I'm speaking with myself, number one, because I have a very good brain, and I've said a lot of things..."  

That's cut off rather abruptly.

I found the original MSNBC interview at Factbase.  The quote is from 3:51-4:03. They have transcript of the whole interview with the matching clips next to each section.  You can check it here.  Here's the excerpt which includes the rest of his response.

"I'm speaking with myself, number one, because I have a very good brain and I've said a lot of things. In fact, in my book in 2000, I talked about Osama bin Laden and I do remember somebody putting the book in front of Joe and Joe saying no way he talked about it, no way he wrote about Osama bin Laden before the World Trade Center came down. And they said no, he really did. And I remember Joe looking at it and saying, I don't believe it"

[AP has a fact check on his claim that he warned about bin Laden before the World Trade Center came down.  bin Laden is mentioned briefly in the book, but more mocking Clinton for saying he's an important target, and not right before 9/11.]


3.  Rep. Max Rose Interview

Next comes a January 3, 2020 interview New York Democratic Rep. Max Rose.  He asks two questions about the decision to assassinate Soleimani:

1. What was the intelligence undergirding this decision?  How significant was it?  How imminent was it?  
2. What is the plan for tomorrow because an Iranian response is inevitable?

I can't find this interview.  I found a link to CNN transcripts for what seemed to be this interview,  but  my browser couldn't open the page.  Here's the link.  Maybe it will be up later.  Another link to the CNN transcripts says this:

"Note: This page is continually updated as new transcripts become available. If you cannot find a specific segment, check back later."

But here's what Rep. Max Rose posted on his Congressional page that's pretty close.

“No one should mourn the loss of Qasem Soleimani who was responsible for hundreds of Americans deaths and injuries to thousands more—some of whom I know and served with. We are now faced with incredibly serious questions regarding the intelligence that led to this strike and what the Administration’s plan is for what comes next. Let me be clear: no President, regardless of party, has the authority to go to war with Iran without Congressional authorization.”

There's also an MSNBC January 3, 2020 interview with Rose.  which doesn't include the quotes from the video.



4.  Sen. Chris Van Hollen's brief comment

Then there's a cut to Sen. Chris Van Hollen, Democrat from Maryland on January 2, 2020 on Wolf Blitzer

That interview (a day earlier than Rose's) is in the CNN transcripts.  Here are the words that were in the Now Hear This clip:

"Obviously, we need to do what's necessary to protect the lives of Americans. But, unfortunately, actions this administration has taken for weeks and months now have taken a very difficult situation, and made it much worse."

5.  Trump's prediction that Obama will start a war with Iran

 In this one, Trump predicts Obama will start a war with Iran before the 2012 election because Obama doesn't know how to negotiate.  I can't find the original Youtube, but there are lots and lots of people who have put up the interview in the last few days.   A report on MSNBC on the attack on Soleimani includes part of the 2011 video in which Trump predicts that Obama will start a war with Iran to win reelection.  It starts at about 2:10 in the video. It seems to include all the video, but the first part, where he talks about Obama's inability to negotiate, doesn't have the video included.

There's another weird version of the 2011 Trump prediction here.  It was put up Jan 3, 2020 and includes a computer generated audio description.

Another recently uploaded Youtube of Trump's Obama will start war on Iran prediction as part of a medley of Trump's videos on Iran.  The exact quote from the Now Hear This video is at about 1:25.

There are also other reports of the video at Global News (Canadian) and here's FOX5NY's coverage of it. 

Of course, the purpose of fact checking is to be sure that the media aren't all jumping on the same false claims.  I haven't found the original video, but there are so many outlets - including the Fox channel in New York - and I haven't seen any denials, so I'm going to say, I'm pretty sure this is real.  In fact I think I heard this a long time ago.  But keep a skeptical mind on this last one.

On the whole, I would say that the Now Hear This video is pretty accurate.  The words appear from many sources to have been said by Trump.  The clips don't include everything Trump said - for instance he also talks about the possibility of using the military - but I don't think they take things out of context.   They don't make  him appear to have said things he didn't really say or mean.  But I would also add that in the originals Trump does talk about going to war with Iran as a possibility.  I guess if I watched Fox News, those would be the clips they are showing.


I would also note that I've mentioned before that people often accuse others of what they do, or would do, themselves.  Accusing Obama of starting a war with Iran to win an election probably was something that Trump then would have considered if he were president.  And now, he may have actually done it.  We'll have to wait and see.

Meanwhile I have a friend who left January 2 for a cruise through the Strait of Hormuz.  When I asked him why, (I tend to be understated, I was thinking WTF?!! are you thinking) he said it was the only way he could cruise through the Suez canal.  I don't think he's got internet connections but I did send him an email this morning to let me know the name of the ship - if the cruise hadn't been cancelled - so I'd know he and his wife were ok.  [UPDATE January 6, 2020:  I got an email from him yesterday.  He said the Strait of Hormuz trip is March.  They only were in Cabo yesterday.  I'll let you know if he goes in March and if he does, if the route was altered.]


I'd note finally, that I thought that I could whip this out pretty quickly, but it took a lot more work than I expected.  And I'm really hungry now.

LA Shots, Discussion With Waiter At Persian Restaurant [Updated]

Here's from a couple of nights ago.

We've had sunny days and I have not being able to ride the bike.  I can pretend to walk normally now, but the right knee is still bigger than the left.  But now when I do something wrong, I feel pressure instead of serious pain.  The pressure is a buffer that stops me before I get to the pain part.  And I can move the leg more - obviously enough to walk.  Getting into the car required some thinking about how to position my leg to get it in.

It also means that I let J do the driving today, which means I can take pictures.  I had an eye appointment.

We could see the mountains in the distance, but the sun seems to have gotten rid of most of the snow we saw last week.

The doctor's office is in Beverly Hill, but it still costs much less than it would in Anchorage.  Besides, I've been going to this doctor since 1975 as he reminded me today.  "You're one of my oldest, no I should say, longest regular patients."  We were both young back then and we've seen each other once every one to three years or so all this time.  We talked about grandchildren today. He has a new granddaughter as of Saturday.  And I'm also one of the most distant patients he has.  Last year when I asked him how long he'd be practicing, he said as long as you keep coming, I'll be here.  We'll see.  Here's what my eyes looked like today.  Or one of them at least.

This vehicle was in the parking lot behind his office.  Is there any hope for global warming when people have enough money they can buy toys like this and they do instead of working to slow down global warming?  But, of course, I know nothing about the owner of this vehicle.  I'm creating a persona based on big wheels.

On the way back we decided to go to a Persian restaurant in Westwood.

While I eat very little meat, Persian lamb shank once a year is one of the exceptions.  And as I was paying, I realized this was a good chance to ask someone with Iranian connections about the US assassination of General Soleimani.  While I kept hearing quotes about what an evil man he is and how many Americans and civilians he's killed, I thought about how the US helped get rid of President Allende in Chile in 1973.  And all the civilians who have died as 'collateral damage' of US strikes in the Middle East.

The waiter said they weren't allowed to talk about this in the restaurant.  And then he did.  I didn't tell him I was a blogger or ask for permission to post his comments, because I didn't think about it until we left.  So I won't.  But did just recently get back from visiting his family and he's worried things will get worse for them because things will get worse for everyone.


Here's the window of a bakery we passed.

And a Persian book store.

Meanwhile I checked and the subways in Santiago are working again, but protestors are still out on the streets.  I guess since they aren't being violent, we don't hear any more about it.

[UPDATED Jan 4, 2020 12:20 am:   Since I shortchanged you on the discussion fo the assassination, I thought I'd offer this insight from Chris Hedges.  Hedges resigned from the NYTimes after an award winning career covering the Middle East and other key areas.  He's way out of the mainstream, but that's because he isn't afraid to take on the taboo subjects of American journalism.  Here's the link to the article  and an excerpt:

"The targeting of Soleimani, who was killed by a MQ-9 Reaper drone that fired missiles into his convoy as he was leaving the Baghdad airport, also took the life of Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy commander of Iran-backed militias in Iraq known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, along with other Iraqi Shiite militia leaders. The strike may temporarily bolster the political fortunes of the two beleaguered architects of the assassination, Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but it is an act of imperial suicide by the United States. There can be no positive outcome. It opens up the possibility of an Armageddon-type scenario relished by the lunatic fringes of the Christian right.
A war with Iran would see it use its Chinese-supplied anti-ship missiles, mines and coastal artillery to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which is the corridor for 20% of the world’s oil supply. Oil prices would double, perhaps triple, devastating the global economy. The retaliatory strikes by Iran on Israel, as well as on American military installations in Iraq, would leave hundreds, maybe thousands, of dead."] 

Paywalls And Sharing Good Articles - Immigration Activists, Tribal Contracting, War Is Hell, Flawed Humans,Why Trump Won't Win

Some thoughts raised by things I've recently read.  But first a note on paywalls.

I understand that newspapers want online readers to spend some money for the privilege of reading.  Newspapers are struggling to stay alive.  Many have not survived.

Early on - maybe ten years or more ago - there was a proposal for newspapers to have a collective fee, so that people didn't have to pay every time they visited an online newspaper.  You could buy a pass for a group of them and they could figure out how to divide the money based on hits from subscribers.  That doesn't seem to have happened.  I have an online subscription to the LA Times and the Anchorage Daily News.  I rarely read anything any more in the NY Times or the Washington Post.

This is problematic particularly for journalists and researchers who need to look at lots of things.  This was noted on Recall Elections Blog as a problem in tracking the various recalls around the country.

I say all this because a number of links here go to the LA Times and many of you may not be able to get direct access to the articles.  I'd note you can probably get there via your public library or find a reprint somewhere online.  Try different browsers, try private browsing, remove media cookies from your computer.


Immigration - LATimes article on Washington State activists making it harder for ICE - King County banned flights taking immigrants out of the state, so they have to go to Yakima, where protestors show up for flights.

What is happening on this front in Alaska?  Could Anchorage ban the use of our airport for these activities?


Tribal Membership And Minority Contracts - Giving federal contracts to businesses that claim Native American tribal status that is recognized by the state (Alabama in the article) but not by the feds.  Only 5% of federal contracts are set aside for minority/women owned businesses, but it's a lot of money.

Article says nearly $1billion has gone to Alabama companies with dubious claims to Native heritage.

Alaska Native corporations have done well with these contracts.  However, I would like to see more investigation on the structure of some of these.  Are they simply ways for larger white owned companies to buy Native participation so they can get the contracts?


When War is Hell In Movies

Lots of war movies are patriotic calls to support the current war.  But an LA Times article on the new film 1917 notes:

"WWII films tend to be stories of victory, BUT WWI movies SHOW the horrors OF A SEEMINGLY SENSELESS FIGHT."

Their list of notable realistic WWI movies turns out to include nearly all non-Hollywood films.  Would the misery of actual warfare on screen discourage potential enlistees?  Probably not those 17 and 18 year olds who are desperate to get out of the house and out of school and be heroes.

Or maybe all 17 year old boys should get school assignments to visit vets with various long term war related illnesses to find out what war does and what the Department of Veterans Affairs doesn't do to help.


Flawed Humans

Queen and Slim writer Lena Waithe, again in the LA Times, writes about how she got the idea and then wrote the film.  This sentence struck me:

"And, ultimately, my deep love and admiration for these two very flawed and extremely human characters never failed to pull me through. And I think it’s because for me Queen and Slim aren’t just characters in a movie, they’re two fictitious people that represent all of us."

One of the tropes that dominate how we see the world is the notion of right and wrong.  The American justice system is based on finding out whether someone is guilty or not guilty.  The Republican response to the impeachment of Trump has been to point out other people as guilty - most notably Hunter Biden, but many others as well.
But this quote adds nuance to the idea.  These two people have killed a cop in self defense.  But being black, the fear they won't be believed.  So now they actually break the law by fleeing.  And presumably, as the movie progressive, we learn more about their flaws.  We all have flaws.  We're all guilty of something.  Christianity has based a whole religion on that notion.  

This quote reminds us that even though they are flawed, they need to be judged by their actions, not their flaws.  It also reminds me that privilege (whether it's white privilege or any other privilege) means that you're more likely to be forgiven for your flaws.  We know, for instance, that young people of color are more likely to be sent to a detention center than white kids.  It's the difference between 'kids will be kids' so call their parents to pick them up, and assuming they're just no good.


Why Trump Won't Win Reelection

Here's a prediction based on voting patterns.

"Of course 2016 showed that we need to look beyond the national polls and focus on the swing states. But there too the news is encouraging. In Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, since Trump took office, his net approval ratings, which started out on the plus side, have fallen — disastrously.
In Pennsylvania they decreased by 17 points, in Wisconsin by 20 points, in Michigan by 22 points. In the midterm voting, those three swing states all elected Democrats in 2018. Wisconsin elected a Democratic governor to replace a Republican and reelected a Democratic senator; Pennsylvania reelected a Democratic governor, and Democrats there took three House seats away from Republican incumbents.
In Michigan, which the Democrats lost to Trump by 11,000 votes, the Democrats had a huge victory in 2018, sweeping the elections for governor and senator and flipping two House seats. Voters also banned gerrymandering and created automatic voter registration, which together will bear fruit in 2020. All this explains why I’m quite certain we’ll be free at last from Donald Trump on Jan. 20, 2021."

But the author acknowledges he also wrote about why Trump couldn't win in 2016.  I'm convinced in a free and fair vote, Trump will lose.  But with voter suppression, voter disinformation campaigns, and potential cyber attacks on voting machines  I'm less confident.

Bursitis? Whatever It Is, Isn't Fun

Getting older is a do-it-yourself anatomy lesson.  You discover parts of your body you never consciously knew existed.  I discovered gout some time ago and know how to recognize it and stop it before it gets bad.

My knees have started giving me problems this year.  Well I did check with the doctor a couple of

years ago and had them take x-rays to see if I was close to causing real damage.  Turns out I still had space and was ok.  But this is different.  I had a bout of this in the summer.  Nothing bad enough to keep me from walking around, but it did cause me to pass up climbing a hill, and I took the elevator instead of the stairs at some places.

Ice, naproxen, and wearing a neoprene knee brace have been helpful in minimizing this problem.

Until yesterday when moving my lower leg in the wrong direction caused severe pain.  It appears I didn't take my knee brace on this trip.  Getting in an out of bed or a chair is hard.  I found my mom's old walker in the garage.  That's helpful.  Not sure what caused this.  There wasn't any excess walking the day before.  There was a lot of roughhousing with the little ones, but nothing that

And then I tried to figure out what it is.  Bursitis sounds right.

From Mayo Clinic on Knee Bursitis

Doctors often can make a diagnosis of knee bursitis with a medical history and physical exam. Your doctor will:

• Compare the condition of both knees, particularly if only one is painful

• √Gently press on areas of your knee to detect warmth, swelling and the source of pain

• Inspect the skin over the tender area for redness or other signs of infection

• √Carefully move your legs and knees to determine your knee's range of motion and whether it hurts to bend or flex it  (red checks (√) added)

And I'm doing the things they say to do - ice, anti-inflammatory pills.  Today I used the walker in the morning, but had a little more range of motion.  I'm hoping I'm a lot closer to normal tomorrow.  It's tender, warm, and a little swollen.  And hurts like hell when I move wrong.


 I'm also playing with a new (to me) computer tool - AutoDesk Sketchbook.  It's a free download and I was looking for something I could use to make quick markups without getting into Photoshop so often.  It seems pretty easy to use, though it's pretty basic.  Practice should unlock more power.  And I need to pay attention to how I do things.  I'm not exactly sure how I did the red saw blade in the illustration.



But remember if people aren't too friendly, they may have severe pain, even severe chronic pain.  It saps you of energy and sparkle.  I was hoping to have something more inspirational for the first day of the year.  Sorry.

Interconnections - Oil and Democracy, Microbes and Human Behavior

The world is complicated and humans are constantly tracking down the linkages between different factors.  The first seems much easier to understand, though confirmation bias plays a big role in how easy it is for someone to understand the link between oil and democracy.


1.  Oil's Impact on Democracy

From Philosophasters

OIL IS THE DEVIL'S EXCREMENT
SEPTEMBER 28, 2017 BY DAVID JACQUES IN ARTICLES
Juan Pablo Pérez Alfonzo was a prominent Venezuelan politician who served two terms in office with the Centrist Betancourt Administration (1947-48 & 1959-64). As Minister for Energy he was drawn into conflict with the U.S. under Eisenhower who had negatively affected quotas on Venezuelan oil by favouring new trade agreements with Canada and Mexico. Alfonzo’s response was to form an alliance with oil producing Arab nations in an attempt to regulate the global oil market. His ideas came to fruition with the establishment of 'The Organisation of Oil Producing Countries' - OPEC.
However, protection within the market and the promise of unfettered wealth arising from Venezuela’s immense oil reserves were undone by what economists came to term the 'natural resource curse'; the sudden influx of money would cause the national currency to dramatically appreciate, wages are driven up, prices inflate, manufacturing, imports and exports all slump. Though this was yet to occur for Venezuela during the early OPEC years, Alfonzo saw it all coming. In a prophetic 1975 speech he uttered the infamous lines: "ten years from now, twenty years from now, you will see; oil will bring us ruin. Oil is the Devil's excrement".

• Rachel Maddow

  Posted: Sun, 13 Oct 2019 20:01:14 -0000

  Play Now
  MSNBC host Rachel Maddow talks about the oil and gas industry’s impact on democracy around the world, tying in Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election, the impeachment inquiry of Donald Trump, and more. On October 6, 2019, Rachel Maddow came to the Sydney Goldstein Theater to read from her new book “Blowout: Corrupted Democracy, Rogue State Russia, and the Richest, Most Destructive Industry on Earth”. Maddow spoke to Dan Pfeiffer, a former advisor to President Barack Obama who now co-hosts “Pod Save America”.

I highly recommend Confessions of an Economic Hitman.  It tells the story of how international corporations funnel trillions of public dollars into their own coffers.  It's short and easy to read.  The link tells more about why I recommend it.


2.  Gut Microbes' Impact on Behavior.  

From Science Magazine

Animal sociability through microbes
Accumulating evidence suggests that the microbiota living in and on animals has important functions in the social architecture of those animals. Sherwin et al. review how the microbiota might facilitate neurodevelopment, help program social behaviors, and facilitate communication in various animal species, including humans. Understanding the complex relationship between microbiota and animal sociability may also identify avenues for treating social disorders in humans.
Science, this issue p. eaar2016

These studies are in mice and from the abstract All I could tell was that it affected 'sociability.'
I learned about 10 years ago how my body's functioning was dependent on microbes living inside me.  Finding out the there are 10 times more microbial cells in my body than human cells caused a major shift in how I understand the world and what it means to be human.  I'd note that because the microbial cells are very small, they only make up about 1-3 percent of human body mass.

3.  Census Methodology Impacts on  Gerrymandering

It's no secret that how and who the Census Bureau counts in decennial census counts impacts elections. People who pay attention to the news are aware of the Trump administration's attempt to add a question about citizenship on the 2020 census which would have (and even though it failed, still might have) the effect of causing non-citizens to hide from census takers.

But this article is about how the census bureau counts prisoners - in the community where the prison is located.  Here's the beginning of a primer from the Prison Gerrymandering Project:

"The way the Census Bureau counts people in prison creates significant problems for democracy and for our nation’s future. It leads to a dramatic distortion of representation at local and state levels, and creates an inaccurate picture of community populations for research and planning purposes.
The Bureau counts incarcerated people as residents of the towns where they are confined, though they are barred from voting in 48 states and return to their homes after being released. The practice also defies most state constitutions and statutes, which explicitly state that incarceration does not change a residence."

4.  Blogger Best Wishes and Better New Year

I couldn't find any studies on how blogging good wishes for the new year actually impacts people's
New Year.  I did find this opinion heavy and fact light article on the effects of kindness.  One link is to a Dr. Emoto (really!) who studied how kindness helps water crystals form better and since human bodies are 60% water (plus 3% microbes) being kind helps the water in your body.

There's something off balance in the number 2019.  2020 is much more in tune with human aesthetics.  So I'm wishing you all a great 2020.  Find the good in every day.