A commenter figuratively rolled his eyes about something
I said in post last week about Trump taking orders from Putin. In a responding comment I pointed out that I’d qualified that statement and challenged him to be more specific about his problems with the post.
He responded with a series of issues that I couldn’t factually respond to off the top of my head. I realized that I had an opinion on them, but that I hadn’t done any homework on them.
Normally, responses to comments should stay in the comment section. But I spent some time looking things up (and was also diverted by gramping duties), time passed, and I decided my response warranted its own post where more people would see it.
But I want to thank Oliver for coming back with his list. As Justice Ginsburg said about Justice Scalia, his challenges make me better. I'm assuming that Oliver’s questions are serious, and not just trolling to distract me from other things. I assume that Trump supporters could be thinking the same things. (I didn't say 'other Trump supporters' because I don't know if Oliver supports Trump or not.) As I looked up the questions about NATO funding, I did find that his points mirrored Trump talking points (and in the case of NATO Bernie Sanders talking points) and there were complexities that weren't reflected that seem to make his concerns less clear if not moot.
So here's what he wrote the second time:
"Further Putin’s agenda? Let’s see, the former president sat by while the Russians allegedly hacked the election. Sat by while he gobbled up Crimea and the Ukraine. Yes, I know we did some sanctions and expelled some low level diplomats, or as it’s really know as doing nothing meaningful. Putin’s bombing campaign accomplished in a couple months what the Obama administration was unable to do in a year in Syria.
As for Trump, I don’t think it’s unreasonable for NATO members to pay their fair share, only five of the twenty eight members are paying the 2%. Even Obama ask them to up their contribution. The United States contributes between one-fifth and one-quarter of NATO’s budget. In FY2010 that contribution totaled $711.8 million. We all know what NATO did about Russian aggression over the past several years, nothing. So what is NATO for again?
I don’t think the man who says torture is ok as sick as that is has any intentions of weakening the U.S. intelligence agencies. We sell Taiwan 1.2 billion dollars in military equipment and that’s fine, Trump calls them on the phone and you have outrage from China!!! Tough.
Oliver"
I'm not going to respond to everything - that would be like a week's worth of posts. I did most of my searching on the NATO points. Here's what I found mainly at the
Washington Post,
Politifact, and the
Congressional Research Service: (feel free to offer other serious analyses)
NATO - Basically they all say it’s more complicated than those numbers say:
1. There are different NATO budgets. One is related to NATO non-military costs and each member pays according to a formula based on its GDP. In that area, countries are paying pretty much according to the formula.
2. The
Congressional Research Service says the US gets plenty of benefits from NATO
“DOD has noted that the United States has benefitted from NATO infrastructure support for several military operations, including the 1986 air strike on Libya, Desert Storm, Provide Comfort, Deny Flight, peacekeeping activities in the Balkans, as well as military operations in Afghanistan and training in Iraq. Finally, the Pentagon notes that U.S. companies have been successful in bidding on NSIP [NATO Security Investment Program] contracts.”
3. When it comes to military contribution, the calculations include the total military expenditures for each country. Most of the NATO countries only have troops related to Europe and NATO. The calculation for the US includes all military spending world wide. It’s true that some of those forces can be brought in, if needed, to deploy in Europe. But it’s also true that the US troops in Europe are not solely to support NATO. They can if needed, but they also support US military missions in other places - like Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc. So the calculations of those expenses, which make the US contribution look huge (less than your $700 million figure, but more than you 20% figure), are misleading because those expenses are for much, much more than defense of NATO.
Oliver, I realize this doesn't end the debate or change your opinion on NATO, but it does put the ball back on your side of the court on this one.
I don't have time to do the same tracking down of facts - and even if I did, there would still be disputes - but let me respond briefly to your comment about Syria:
"Putin’s bombing campaign accomplished in a couple months what the Obama administration was unable to do in a year in Syria."
Syria is a thorny problem. I suspect that Obama had some options in the beginning that might have made a difference. What would have happened if he had tried to take out Asad right away? If he succeeded or failed, there would have been a lot of blowback. History may or may not be able to sort that out. There were lots of things to consider, including civilian lives and the already overextended US military that had soldiers overseas in their 3rd, 4th, and 5th rotations. And there was an overstretched VA that would have to serve even more veterans. And we don’t know what all has happened there behind the scenes.
I would argue that supporting the existing regime (as Putin is doing) is far easier than trying to figure out which of the rebel organizations should be supported. Asad had a long-standing, well trained and organized army. Supporting Asad meant Russia would get what it wanted from Syria if Asad prevailed. The rebel outcomes were far less certain. Russia also had no qualms about killing civilians. Putin has no humanitarian interests in Syria (or anywhere else as far as I can tell), so was free to support the strongest party, despite its terrible record including atrocities in the prisons as this
Amnesty International report describes.
I don't know Trump's intentions. The idea that Putin has leverage over Trump is not nearly as far-fetched as Trump's long standing campaign about Obama being a Kenyan, which so many Trump supporters had no problem embracing. There's far more circumstantial evidence that Trump's financially entangled with Russian interests and his serious of Russian friendly moves raises serious questions, even among congressional Republicans. Seeing Obama's birth certificate, as Trump demanded for years, was far less consequential than seeing Trump's tax returns. Yet Trump refuses to make them public, something all the recent presidential candidates have done. And which would likely confirm his financial links to Russia one way or the other. (And possibly open up new questions.)
So there are a few possibilities that Trump is weakening the US security agencies:
- He is being pressured by Putin.
- He is hurting US Security unintentionally - His lashing out at anyone who criticizes him leads him to attack the CIA and others and take actions that hurt them - as in replacing the chair of the Joint Chief of Staff and the head of national intelligence with Stephen Bannon on the National Security Council - which is being reported now, that he didn't realize he was doing when he signed the order.
Oliver, I do appreciate your making me sharpen my facts. I think we should be talking respectfully about the issues that some would rather have divide the nation for their own interests. Your serious comments also help me understand how intelligent folks could see Trump as a reasonable option. I do get the opposition to Clinton, but not when Trump is the alternative. Now, if you still want to address the other issues - the Russian hacking and the Ukraine - I'll let you spell out your facts that demonstrate Obama could have done something different that would have worked.
Perhaps the best thing that could come out of this is a shake-up of both parties, more serious talk across party lines, and improvements in how we elect presidents. But I think the issue goes beyond the parties to the corporations that have inordinate influence over congress and the presidency.