What's Wrong With Judge Guidi's Decision That Ben Nageak Should Be The District 40 Democratic Candidate?

In Friday's ADN a Nathaniel Herz article reports that Judge Guidi overturned the house district 40 election, deciding that Ben Nageak should have won.  Based on that article* I have some problems with the decision.

Map of house district 40 from elections website, I added Shungnak

Let's look at the key points I have issues with.

"But in the small Northwest Alaska village of Shungnak, which went 47-3 for Westlake, Guidi found poll workers acted with 'reckless disregard of the requirements of law. . .'

. . . And Randy Ruedrich, the former chairman of the Alaska Republican Party, testified on Nageak's behalf as an expert witness during the trial. 

Guidi's decision, in fact, hinged on an analysis by Ruedrich of how the double voting in Shungnak affected the outcome of the election. . ."

Note, we have a long-time Republican Party chair working on behalf of one of the Democratic candidates.  That's because while Nageak is a Democrat, he caucuses with the Republicans, which is why the Democratic party supported his opponent, Dean Westlake, in the primary.

"Westlake had his own witness — his campaign manager, John-Henry Heckendorn — but Guidi wrote that Ruedrich's testimony was more "authoritative and reliable." And in his decision, Guidi calculated 12 "contaminated votes" in Shungnak should be thrown out — 11 for Westlake and one for Nageak, based on the existing split in votes between the two candidates."

I would grant that Ruedrich is more knowledgable about voting in Alaska.  He's a very bright man and has spent many years studying districts and precincts around the state.  He was very much involved with the redistricting process in the most recent redistricting and in past ones.  Few people know Alaska elections like Ruedrich.

However, I would argue that Ruedrich isn't acting as a political scientists here, studying the facts and coming up with the most reasonable interpretation and solution.  Rather he was acting as a strong political partisan, finding a scheme that would sound reasonable to the judge, that would result in his favored candidate winning the election.

In fact, were the vote counts switched, and Westlake had challenged Nageak using the same argument Ruedrich used, Ruedrich would have argued against that reasoning, because Ruedrich's goal is to find an argument that will get his candidate elected, not one that is most reasonable.  (And as a party operative, that's what he ought to be doing and it's the judge's job to decide.)

Citing Ruedrich's testimony, Guidi ruled those dozen voters would have picked the Republican ballot — on which Nageak and Westlake didn't appear — based on historical averages."

Here's the part I have the most heartburn with.  Perhaps there were a dozen Republican voters in Shungnak.  But there were no house candidates on the Republican ballot.  The most contested election in the primary, the only one on which the voters of Shungnak might make a difference, was the Democratic** primary. It was the only race where voters in Shungnak could make a difference.

Republicans in Alaska are allowed to vote on the Democratic ballot.  The 'historical' 12 Shungnak Republicans knew they would have no impact on any of the statewide Republican primary contests.  The odds are that they all would have picked Democratic ballots so they could vote in the district 40 house primary.  But, Ruedrich would point out, there was no Republican ballot in 2014 or 2013 and still about a dozen people voted Republican.

I would counter that this was NOT like other 'historical' elections.  In 2012 there were four candidates on the Democratic ballot and Nageak won by four percentage points over the runner up.  In 2014, he beat Westlake by nearly 7% of the vote.  While these aren't landslides, they're comfortable margins.

What was significantly different this year was that the Republicans were backing Nageak and the Democrats were backing Westlake in the primary.  A lot of money was spent on this election.  It had a lot more publicity than in the past.  There was a candidate who was nominally a Democrat, but was had been caucusing with the Republicans and would in the future.  His opponent was going to caucus with the Democrats.  This was NOT by any stretch a typical election where 'historical average' ought to be used.

From what I can gather from the article, Judge Guidi has disenfranchised those 12 Republican voters in Shungnak.  Maybe they would have taken a Republican ballot.  But maybe not.

• They had the right to vote in the Democratic primary
• They chose their preferred candidate
• Any votes on mistakenly given out Republican ballots would have had no effect on any of the state wide primary races

 Since they had the right to vote in the Democratic primary why should their votes be taken away?

Why would Guidi choose to invalidate the Democratic ballots rather than the Republican ballots which Shungnak's Democratic voters had no right to use?

Furthermore, the reasoning Ruedrich used, if I read Herz' article correctly, and he reported correctly, was that we should look at how they voted in the past.  

By that logic, we could skip elections altogether, and just go by what voters did in the last election.  

I understand Judge Guidi's concern about election workers giving everyone both ballots.  That's totally unacceptable.  But so is Guidi's decision.

Essentially, Guidi disenfranchised 12 Shungnak voters.  

If he truly believes the results were tainted by giving out both ballots to all voters, the only fair option is to let both candidates run against each other once more in the general election where more voters are likely to vote.  Since there were no Republican primary candidates, or any other party candidates, this would pit Nageak against Westlake against each other once again.  One could argue that's unfair to the original winner Westlake, but it's a lot fairer than Ruedrich and Guidi second guessing the voters of Shungnak.  

If there had been a Republican candidate, this would have been a messy solution.  But there isn't so this would be the cleanest option if you truly believe that the primary was tainted.  

Now it's up to the Alaska Supreme Court to decide how this election will go.  

[UPDATE October 13:  Yesterday the Supreme Court threw out Judge Guidi's decision and Westlake will go to Juneau representing District 40.]

*Since I'm taking an online class called Journalism Skills For Engaged Citizens, I'm acutely aware that this post would have been stronger had I gotten a copy of the judge's decision and not just relied on the article.  I tried.  I did get to the case online, but couldn't figure out how to get a copy of the decision.  And it's after hours so I can't get help.  Next time I'll do better.

**I use Democratic primary, but technically it's called the ADL primary.

From The Air

I've got a million posts in my head and not much time, but I suspect most folks would rather look at a few decent pictures than read a long post.  We walked our grandson to day care this morning, then left San Francisco at 1pm for Seattle.

Seattle had been  clouded when we landed, but the clouds seemed to have gathered over by Mt. Rainer as we took off, leaving downtown Seattle in bright sunshine. (Click the pics to see them sharper.)

Then we veered over Puget Sound.

Then I got some work done, read my book, and before I knew it we were over Prince William Sound with Denali and Foraker silhouetted in the sunset glow.

Minutes later we were passing Anchorage from the south so we could loop around over Cook Inlet to land.

(Sorry about the stray light coming in as they turned on the cabin lights.)

We spent a good amount of time at the San Francisco Museum of Modern Art yesterday and I have so many pictures I have no idea how I'm going to tackle posting about that.  I do like modern art museums because I see work that lots if not most people would dismiss, that I love.  And I don't feel as all alone in my weird tastes. Which reminds me I still have a follow up post from the Musée du Quai Branly in Paris.

Who Is Ed Ruscha (And Why Is He So Damn Cool?)

There's an exhibit of Edward Ruscha's works at the DeYoung Museum here in San Francisco (for a few more days.)  We didn't see it, but I checked out the video that goes with it.

And since it only has 850 hits on Youtube so far, I know I'm not posting something that's been seen 50,000 times already.




You can see more of his artwork here.

Moses At Yosemite

We walked over to Temple Sherith Israel for Rosh Hashanah services today with my son and his family.  This is a large and beautiful old synagogue.

While I looked at the stained glass window of Moses and the ten commandments, my brain blinked as it seemed to recognize Half Dome and El Capitan.

It wasn't appropriate to take pictures during the services, 

so this image is from the temple's website.  It's only part of the window.

Later I read more about the window on the Temple Sherith Israel website:

"West window: This dramatic work, "Moses Presented the Ten Commandments to the Children of Israel," was designed by Paris-trained artist Emile Pissis, brother of architect Albert Pissis. Emile created a movie-star handsome Moses, red robe flowing, surrounded by vibrant tribal flags and the Hebrew people. But instead of standing at Sinai, the Jewish people are gathered on granite rocks at the gateway to Yosemite, Half Dome and El Capitan in the distance. This is a modern Moses, and California is the Promised Land. . .

The identity of the glass artist/s was unknown until congregants Joan Libman and Ian Berke discovered an invoice for $1,100 made out to Emile Pissis. Emile, who frequently painted scenes of Yosemite, designed the Moses window on the west wall and seven other windows in the sanctuary."

The building was consecrated on September 24, 1905, and for those who know their history, the big San Francisco earthquake hit seven months later on April 18,1906.  But the building sustained only slight damage, and none in the 1989 earthquake.  But it's recently been undergoing architectural strengthening required by the City of San Francisco.

Frozen Cliches

We visited friends yesterday and they had what appeared to be a fascinating book on the human body.  Very scientific yet a bit irreverent.

Then I got to the page that looked at the different climates humans lived in.  There were little domes for 'hot and humid' and other types of climates.  And this one.

Describing the Arctic as a 'frozen wasteland' is a best a hoary cliche created and perpetuated by people who have never been to the Arctic or whose interest in the Arctic is merely to exploit its natural resources.

Even apparently otherwise intelligent and thoughtful people like the authors of Open Me Up fall prey to ignorant stereotypes.

What exactly is a wasteland?  From the Merriam-Webster online dictionary.

1 : barren or uncultivated land
2 : an ugly often devastated or barely inhabitable place or area
3 : something (as a way of life) that is spiritually and emotionally arid and unsatisfying

Anyone who has been to the Arctic and isn't spiritually and aesthetically deaf and blind knows the Arctic is NOT barren, is NOT ugly or devastated.  It's incredibly rich with life in the summer, but also still full of life and exquisite beauty in the winter.  Even the picture in the 'frozen wasteland' dome belies the description.  But then cliches are those terms we fall back on without thinking.

Linda Buller and your co-authors and all those editors, are you listening?

Gramping at Academy of Sciences Museum San Francisco

Friday morning was at the museum, a big glitzy, pricey place to visit with lots of things to keep the attention of anyone from 6 months to nearly dead.

Many of the exhibits are truly spectacular, like this replicated banyan swamp with big rays floating by.

Animals have been a big attraction since I was a little kid.  I spent a lot of time studying the dioramas at the Los Angeles Museum of Natural History as a kid.  And as good as these dioramas were, I've since seen Zebras in the national parks in East Africa and these just aren't the same.  But there were lots of kids on school trips getting the magic.



A pair of oryx.

And we didn't even see this leopard until a museum volunteer waved his hand over a sensor sending a load roar down to us.

So, yeah, these animals were all stuffed.  (Though there were live penguins.)  But the fish were real.

This is looking down into a living coral reef.


I had to wonder how much harder it is for humans to recreate and maintain the conditions for reefs and keep them going, than for nature.

This one was in a large tank full of many kinds of fish and I didn't get its business card.




These anemone like critters were in the tank too.

This jelly fish was about a foot in diameter.

And I thought this was a good sign of the times as machines replace humans.  They used to publish these futuristic articles with titles like "What will people do with all their leisure time?"  They thought that when we went down to 30 hour weeks because of automation, that people would make the same money with fewer hours.  They forgot that in a capitalistic system, the owners take the savings as profits,  layoff workers they don't need, and keep the others at 40 and 50 hour jobs with no retirement and fewer and fewer benefits.

Flying Over Chugach Mountains Never Gets Old

On good days, which really is any day you can see the mountains, the views flying in and out of Anchorage are breathtaking.  Even after almost 40 years.  And even with a scratchy window that caught the morning sun, some of the pictures came out ok.  Just click on the pictures to see them sharper.  Here's downtown Anchorage in the middle with Government Hill on the bottom and Westchester Lagoon on the top right.

Quickly we're up over the mountains.

And then suddenly, we're over Prince William Sound.

And eventually, I'm watching the clouds preparing for an invasion of San Francisco.

And we get to have dinner with family.

Right To Life Starts "40 Days For Life" Demonstration Outside Planned Parenthood

We walked home from dinner by the Planned Parenthood clinic on Lake Otis and ran into a contingent of demonstrators with black signs with white and blue lettering.

I got a flyer from Jared and he explained this was the first of forty days of demonstrations and referred me to 40daysforlife.com where I found this explanation:

TAKE A STAND FOR LIFE
From September 28 to November 6, our community will take part in 40 Days for Life … a groundbreaking, coordinated international mobilization. We pray that, with God’s help, this will mark the beginning of the end of abortion in our city – and beyond.

So they're planning to be there until the Sunday before election day.  Plenty of time for me to revisit and find out what motivates them on this issue.

Hope Springs Eternal - Can Steve Lindbeck Beat Rep. Don Young?

Usually there are more post ideas than I have time or energy for.  And I have a lot of draft posts that are either in queue for when I'm ready to finish them.  And there are a lot more that probably are past their use by date.

Here's one I started the day that Steve Lindbeck officially announced his campaign to unseat Representative Don Young.  I gathered the election numbers back to Young's first race for the house in 1972 when he lost to Nick Begich.  Since then, the closest race was 1990 when he won by less than 8,000 votes.

The factors that matter seem to be:

Does the opponent have name recognition and a good reputation?
Lindbeck has never run for political office before, but he's had a number of jobs where his name got out to Alaskans and he had opportunities to get around the state.  He was a journalist with the Anchorage Daily News.  He was head of the Alaska Humanities Forum, and head of the Alaska Public Broadasting.

Presidential year or not?
Opponents seem to have done better during presidential years when more people voted.

Other factors.
More candidates in the race seems to help Young.  This year the turmoil in the Republican Party may or may not have a spillover effect into this House race.  Lindbeck has raised a relatively large amount for Young opponents.  There were a number of incumbents house legislators who lost in the primaries this year.  Young's tainted by some scandals including a road in Florida and his clout in Congress is much weakened.  Will that be enough?  I haven't seen any poll data, so we'll just have to wait and see.

Here's the post I began last April.


The official announcement was today, that Steve Lindbeck will run as a Democrat against Alaska's Republican Congressman for life (as some call him) Don Young.


2014
Republican Don Young Incumbent    51% 142,572
Democratic Forrest Dunbar                41% 114,602
Libertarian Jim McDermott                 7.6% 21,290
Write-in 0.5%                                                  1,277
Total Votes                                                  279,741


2012
Republican Don Young 63.9% 185,296
Democratic Sharon M. Cissna 28.6% 82,927
Libertarian Jim C. McDermott 5.2% 15,028
NA Ted Gianoutsos 1.9% 5,589
NA Write-in 0.3% 964
Total Votes 289,804


2014 and 2012 from Ballotopedia


2008
Berkowitz, Ethan A. DEM 142560 44.97%
Wright, Don R. AI 14274 4.50%
Young, Don E. REP 158939 50.14%
Write-in Votes 1205 0.38%
State Election results -


2006

BENSON, DIANE E. DEM           93879  40.01%
CRAWFORD, ALEXANDER LIB  4029    1.72%
INCE, EVA L. GRN                         1819    0.78%
RATIGAN, WILLIAM IMP             1615   0.69%
YOUNG, DON E. REP                 132743 56.57%
Write-in Votes                                     560    0.24%
Total Votes 234645
State of Alaska


2004
ANDERS, ALVIN A. LIB 7157 2.39%
HIGGINS, THOMAS M. DEM 67074 22.36%
YOUNG, DON E. REP 213216 71.07%
FELLER, TIMOTHY A. GRN 11434 3.81%
Write-in Votes 1115 0.37%
Total Votes 299996
State of Alaska


2002
YOUNG, DON REP 169685 74.51%
deFOREST, RUSSELL GRN 14435 6.34%
CLIFT, ROB LIB 3797 1.67%
GREENE, CLIFFORD DEM 39357 17.28%
Write-in Votes 451 0.20%
Total Votes 227725

State of Alaska

2000

GREENE, CLIFFORD DEM 45372 16.54%
DORE, JIM AI 10085 3.68%
KARPINSKI, LEONARD LIB 4802 1.75%
YOUNG, ANNA C. GRN 22440 8.18%
YOUNG, DON E. REP 190862 69.56%
Write-in Votes 832 0.30%
Total Votes 274393
State of Alaska


1998
YOUNG, DON REP 139676 62.55%
DUNCAN, JIM DEM 77232 34.59%
GRAMES, JOHN GRN 5923 2.65%
Write-in Votes 469 0.21%

Total Votes 223300

State of Alaska



1996
GRAMES, JOHN J. G. G 4513 1.9|
LINCOLN, GEORGIANNA D 85114 36.4|
NEMEC, WILLIAM J., II AI 5017 2.1|
YOUNG, DON R 138834 59.4|
Writein Votes 222 0.1
State of Alaska

1994
CANDIDATE PARTY VOTES PERCENTAGE
Tony Smith (D) 68,172 32.7%
Jonni Whitmore (G) 21,277 10.2%
Don Young (R) 118,537 56.9%
Write-Ins -- 254 0.1%
State of Alaska

1992
Devens, John D 102,378 42.8%
Milligan, Mike G 9,529 3.9
States, Michael A 15,049 6.2
Young, Don R 111,849 46.7
Writein votes 311 0.1
State of Alaska

1990
Devens, John S D 91,677 47.8%
Young, Don R 99,003 51.6%
State of Alaska 1990

1988
Gruenstein, Peter D 71,881 37.2%
Young, Don R 120,595 62.4%
State of Alaska 1988


1986

Begich, Pegge D                       74,053    41%
Breck, Betty  (Belle Blue)L        4,182 2.       3%
Young, Don R                         101,799     56.4%
State of Alaska 1986



1984
Begich, Pegge D 86,052
Breck, Betty N 6,508
Young, Don R 113,582
State of Alaska 1984


1982
Dave Carlson D 52,011
Young Don R 128,274
State of Alaska 1982


1980
Parnell, Kevin D 39,922
Young, Don R 114,089
State of Alaska 1980


1978
Rodey, Patrick D 55,176
Young, Don R 61,811
State of Alaska 1978


1976
Hobson, Eben D 34,194
Young, Don R 83,722
State of Alaska 1976


1974
Hensley Willie 44,280 46.2%
Young 51,641 53.8%
State of Alaska

1972
Begich D 53,651
Young R 41,750
State of Alaska

What do Kp numbers mean? Supposed To Be 5 Tonight

First I got this Tweet from AuroraNotify

Kp 5 forecast tonight, looking good!!! https://t.co/ADMTUxALm9 pic.twitter.com/5bKPH8m4rX

— AuroraNotify (@AuroraNotify) September 28, 2016

But I really didn't know what Kp 5 meant.  So I googled and got to Aurora Service:

The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. It goes from 0 to 9 (0 being very weak, 9 being a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible). So when your looking at the aurora forecast page, you want to see high Kp numbers. The higher the better. Anything above (and including) Kp5 is classed as a geomagnetic storm.

I haven't gone outside yet to check the clouds.  The last few times there were aurora notices, it was cloudy.  But it was pretty clear out late this afternoon.  So I'm going out to check.

I did go out and check about an hour ago.  It was dark enough to see a few stars, so it's clear enough.  But no lights.  Then I finished kneading a bread, made some phone calls, went through some old paperwork (AHRGGGGGGG!!), and now I'm back.

Here's a screenshot of the current map on Aurora Services.

From Aurora Services

So it should be a Kp 5 in (now) less than 18 minutes.  I'll go check again.

There are stars out.  I haven't been out looking at stars for a while now.  It's still not dark dark, and I didn't see any northern lights.  I'll post this now and update it later if I see anything.  It didn't feel cold at all without a coat, but when I checked it was 42˚F (5.5˚C), but there's absolutely no wind.