We went to see Stalking The Bogey Man at UAA tonight. Get tickets and go. Not only is it a powerful play, but Anchorage is the locale for most of it, and the topic is one of the most important for our children. You won't be bored. You can get tickets here. There's no one who shouldn't see this play - unless you're a rape victim and can't deal with it yet. More on it later. I don't have time to do it justice tonight.
But as we were walking to the theater on campus I was struck by this big sign.
We have a smoke free campus here. You can't take a break any more and stand outside when it's 10˚F out and puff with your fellow smokers. You have to actually get off campus. I'm not sure if that isn't taking things a little too far, but I started pushing for no smoking in class back in the mid 1970s, so I definitely like the indoor ban.
But I was thinking about the headline in this morning's paper as I passed this sign.
I try to be objective and look at all sides of an issue. Here's the kind of 'rational' article on guns on campus that I would normally write. And here's one that explains why guns on campus is a bad idea. But at some point, you have to stop being polite and rational and just say it like it is.
There's no real middle ground here. There are national organizations, like ALEC and Americans for Prosperity that are anti-worker, anti-regulation, anti-public school, and other right wing legislation at the state level. It's far cheaper to influence state officials than national ones. I don't know that either of these organizations is helping with this drive. I don't know who's helping Pete Kelly with this bill. But I know the people of Fairbanks are responsible for electing Pete Kelly and the other Republican legislators who have supported this bill are all culpable in this.
My Senator - Berta Gardner - pointed out the other day that while the Senate is forcing the University to change it's concealed weapon policy, they aren't themselves allowing guns in the capital building. I guess that's next year. And I'd bet there are a few legislators who have guns in their offices.
The legislature has ignored the warnings about oil and the state budget for years. And now, instead of seriously working on raising revenue to keep the University strong as well as other important government services, they're refusing to consider raising revenues like responsible states do - through an income tax. But they do have time to pass legislation to allow concealed carry on campus. Even the highly corporate Board of Regents don't support this law. This isn't about safety on compass, it's about power - and what better symbol of power than a gun.
But, in the mean time, concealed carry, or any carry, is not allowed on campus. But if Pete Kelly gets his way, while you won't be able to light up on campus, you can take your gun when you talk to your professor about your grade on the last exam.
I realize that posts like this will probably cause a group to sponsor legislation to allow smoking on campus.
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Saturday, April 09, 2016
Wednesday, April 06, 2016
About 5000 Votes Still To Be Counted In Anchorage Election
I talked to the Municipal Deputy Election Clerk (that means she works in the Clerk's office and is the Deputy Clerk in charge of the elections) Amanda Moser this morning. I had two questions:
1. How come there were already 2076 votes already posted on the 20:03pm unofficial election results? [Those results are no longer available online, but I put them up at that link.] Where were these votes from?
2. How many votes were still to be counted?
Let me answer Question 2 first. It's a much shorter answer and comes up again in Question 1. There are about 5000 votes to be counted. These include absentee by mail that came in yesterday and today (and will trickle in for a few more days), absentee in person, and questioned ballots. Absentee in person means people voted at one of the polling places, like Loussac library, before the election. Questioned votes are for people who voted out of their precincts or didn't have ID, or other irregularity that caused the precinct worker to have questions about the voter.
Question 1: What were those 2076 votes already counted before any of the precincts had brought their boxes to election central?
Amanda Moser told me that these were absentee by mail votes that the Clerk's office had received BEFORE Tuesday. The office decided that since they had them already, it might be interesting to just get them up right away after the election, so people would have some numbers to look at as soon as the polls closed. I didn't remember that from previous elections and Moser confirmed they hadn't done that in previous elections.
You can see those early numbers in my first post from last night. They were much more conservative than the actual outcome.
Trombley was leading with 51.9% of the vote among these early voters.
In the last count, he got 33% to winner Croft's 45%.
This race ended up Traini 62% to Alleva 35%. Not as big a change.
Gales went from 53% over Dunbar's 45% in this first set of ballots to Dunbar 60% and Gales 39% in the latest count.
The latest count in this race has Weddleton ahead 43% over Taylor's 40%. Weddleton leads by 290 votes. There are 5000 or so votes yet to count city wide. The total counted so far is 43,000 and this Assembly race had 10,800 votes, just under 25%. So, there are maybe 1200 votes left to be counted from the absentee by mail and in-person votes. For Taylor to win, he'd need to get 300 more votes than Weddleton. It would have to be at least 750 to 450. Or, put another way, he'd have to pick up 62% of the remaining votes. (And there was one more candidate in the race I'm not even considering.) That's highly unlikely. He didn't even have that big a margin in this early vote that was clearly leaning right.
SCHOOL BOARD - SEAT A
DAVIS, Bettye 840 44.03%
HUGHES, Brent 1050 55.03% Write-in Votes 18 0.94%
This one really turned around. Davis won with 56% of the vote to 42%.
SCHOOL BOARD - SEAT B
SCHUSTER, Kay 693 37.77%
NEES, David 604 32.92%
MARSETT, Starr 519 28.28%
I didn't even know who Kay Schuster was. Her website is pretty bland. But there was a Republican Women's fundraiser for her at McGinley's pub with supporters including former Mayor Sullivan. Nees has run as a conservative in the past.
The last count had Schuster with 35% and Marsett with 34%.
This one is still too close to call. With 5,000 votes outstanding in this city wide race , Marsett would have to get 40% of the remaining votes. Not as big a challenge as Treg Taylor has in his Assembly race, but still a formidable challenge. Particularly if the remaining votes - mostly absentee by mail or in person - have any sort of conservative leaning as the first set of absentee by mail votes had.
So, either conservatives are more likely to vote by mail, or the Republicans did a better job of getting their voters to vote by mail. In either case, that first set of votes we got last night had a significantly more conservative tinge than the eventual outcomes.
Some other issues from yesterday's elections came up in my conversation with Amanda Moser, but I need to review my notes more carefully before I post on that. It involves aging voting machines and memory cards which caused machines not to read people's cards the first, second, or third times, and required some complete recounting for some precincts.
[Blogger notes. When I realized that answering Question 2 first made more sense, why didn't I just make that one Question 1? Good question. I thought about switching the question numbers around. But Question 1 really was my first question, the one that got me to call the Clerk's office to ask.
I'd also note that I did contribute to two of the candidates mentioned in this post. I know old time journalists got taught that to remain impartial, they shouldn't ever contribute to a campaign. Some even believe they shouldn't vote. I already had trouble as an academic about having to use language that imagined that I was some objective observer who had no opinions. Of course reporters have opinions. Some can step back and write reasonably objectively and some can't. I think it's better to just state your biases up front and let the reader consider how that bias might have impacted the story.
In this case, my reporting on specific races is as objective as it can be - just citing numbers and probabilities. And where I mention loaded words like ' conservative' and 'liberal,' I'm not voicing any opinion that hasn't been voiced already by people seen as on the left or on the right. So I don't think it's necessary to mention the specific candidates I wrote checks for. Readers who need to know, can look it up on the APOC website. I doubt it will be a surprise to regular readers.]
1. How come there were already 2076 votes already posted on the 20:03pm unofficial election results? [Those results are no longer available online, but I put them up at that link.] Where were these votes from?
2. How many votes were still to be counted?
Let me answer Question 2 first. It's a much shorter answer and comes up again in Question 1. There are about 5000 votes to be counted. These include absentee by mail that came in yesterday and today (and will trickle in for a few more days), absentee in person, and questioned ballots. Absentee in person means people voted at one of the polling places, like Loussac library, before the election. Questioned votes are for people who voted out of their precincts or didn't have ID, or other irregularity that caused the precinct worker to have questions about the voter.
Question 1: What were those 2076 votes already counted before any of the precincts had brought their boxes to election central?
Amanda Moser told me that these were absentee by mail votes that the Clerk's office had received BEFORE Tuesday. The office decided that since they had them already, it might be interesting to just get them up right away after the election, so people would have some numbers to look at as soon as the polls closed. I didn't remember that from previous elections and Moser confirmed they hadn't done that in previous elections.
You can see those early numbers in my first post from last night. They were much more conservative than the actual outcome.
ASSEMBLY - DISTRICT 3 - SEAT DPERMAN, Ira 40 11.66%DARDEN, Dustin 11 3.21%CROFT, Eric 114 33.24%TROMBLEY, Adam 178 51.90%Write-in Votes 0 0.00%
Trombley was leading with 51.9% of the vote among these early voters.
In the last count, he got 33% to winner Croft's 45%.
ASSEMBLY - DISTRICT 4 - SEAT FALLEVA, Ron 111 39.78%TRAINI, Dick 164 58.78%Write-in Votes 4 1.43%
This race ended up Traini 62% to Alleva 35%. Not as big a change.
ASSEMBLY - DISTRICT 5 - SEAT HDUNBAR, Forrest 188 45.97%GALES, Terre 219 53.55%Write-in Votes 2 0.49%
Gales went from 53% over Dunbar's 45% in this first set of ballots to Dunbar 60% and Gales 39% in the latest count.
ASSEMBLY - DISTRICT 6 - SEAT JSCHIMSCHEIMER, Mark 76 13.82%WEDDLETON, John 170 30.91%TAYLOR, Treg 301 54.73%Write-in Votes 3 0.55%
The latest count in this race has Weddleton ahead 43% over Taylor's 40%. Weddleton leads by 290 votes. There are 5000 or so votes yet to count city wide. The total counted so far is 43,000 and this Assembly race had 10,800 votes, just under 25%. So, there are maybe 1200 votes left to be counted from the absentee by mail and in-person votes. For Taylor to win, he'd need to get 300 more votes than Weddleton. It would have to be at least 750 to 450. Or, put another way, he'd have to pick up 62% of the remaining votes. (And there was one more candidate in the race I'm not even considering.) That's highly unlikely. He didn't even have that big a margin in this early vote that was clearly leaning right.
SCHOOL BOARD - SEAT A
DAVIS, Bettye 840 44.03%
HUGHES, Brent 1050 55.03% Write-in Votes 18 0.94%
This one really turned around. Davis won with 56% of the vote to 42%.
SCHOOL BOARD - SEAT B
SCHUSTER, Kay 693 37.77%
NEES, David 604 32.92%
MARSETT, Starr 519 28.28%
I didn't even know who Kay Schuster was. Her website is pretty bland. But there was a Republican Women's fundraiser for her at McGinley's pub with supporters including former Mayor Sullivan. Nees has run as a conservative in the past.
The last count had Schuster with 35% and Marsett with 34%.
This one is still too close to call. With 5,000 votes outstanding in this city wide race , Marsett would have to get 40% of the remaining votes. Not as big a challenge as Treg Taylor has in his Assembly race, but still a formidable challenge. Particularly if the remaining votes - mostly absentee by mail or in person - have any sort of conservative leaning as the first set of absentee by mail votes had.
So, either conservatives are more likely to vote by mail, or the Republicans did a better job of getting their voters to vote by mail. In either case, that first set of votes we got last night had a significantly more conservative tinge than the eventual outcomes.
Some other issues from yesterday's elections came up in my conversation with Amanda Moser, but I need to review my notes more carefully before I post on that. It involves aging voting machines and memory cards which caused machines not to read people's cards the first, second, or third times, and required some complete recounting for some precincts.
[Blogger notes. When I realized that answering Question 2 first made more sense, why didn't I just make that one Question 1? Good question. I thought about switching the question numbers around. But Question 1 really was my first question, the one that got me to call the Clerk's office to ask.
I'd also note that I did contribute to two of the candidates mentioned in this post. I know old time journalists got taught that to remain impartial, they shouldn't ever contribute to a campaign. Some even believe they shouldn't vote. I already had trouble as an academic about having to use language that imagined that I was some objective observer who had no opinions. Of course reporters have opinions. Some can step back and write reasonably objectively and some can't. I think it's better to just state your biases up front and let the reader consider how that bias might have impacted the story.
In this case, my reporting on specific races is as objective as it can be - just citing numbers and probabilities. And where I mention loaded words like ' conservative' and 'liberal,' I'm not voicing any opinion that hasn't been voiced already by people seen as on the left or on the right. So I don't think it's necessary to mention the specific candidates I wrote checks for. Readers who need to know, can look it up on the APOC website. I doubt it will be a surprise to regular readers.]
Labels:
Anchorage,
election 2016,
Loussac,
voting
Tuesday, April 05, 2016
What Does The Anchorage Election Mean For The Assembly?
Assembly Seats Up For Election:
Eagle River - Amy Demboski - one of the most conservative Assembly member representing a very conservative part of Anchorage. She's going to stay in office.
West Anchorage - Ernie Hall - had become a conservative vote and wasn't running again. He's likely being replaced by Eric Croft, who is more liberal establishment.
East Anchorage - Paul Honeman was in the liberal team and it looks like he will be replaced by another liberal - Forrest Dunbar.
Mid-Town - Dick Traini who has been on the Assembly longer than anyone else ever - is probably genetically more conservative, but his degrees in public planning and public administration gave him skills to analyze more objectively, and he's been considered a key player among the liberals. He's going to stay for another term.
South Anchorage - Jennifer Johnson has been considered as a member of the conservative wing of the Assembly and the race to replace her is close. But John Weddleton is slightly ahead (91% of the precincts reporting) with 3545 votes (43.40%) to Treg Taylor with 3297 votes (40.36%). Weddleton was very active in the rewrite of Title 21 which set the guidelines for building and development of Anchorage and would be in the liberal side if he wins. Taylor has billed himself as a conservative.
[Next update keeps a similar margin: Weddleton 3786 (43%) and Taylor 3527 (40%) with 92% of the vote.]
[11:15pm update: Weddleton edges a little more ahead 4711 - 4421 (43.38% to 40.71%) with 92.3% of the vote in that race counted. Though I don't think that includes the early and absentee votes.]
So, at this point, three liberals have won seats on the Assembly (a change of one more liberal) and one conservative has kept her seat. The final seat is too close to call.
The new assembly will be either be seven leaning left and four leaning right, or eight leaning left and three leaning right.
You can check for later results on the Weddleton/Taylor race here. (District 6, Seat J)
And I should say this liberal/conservative dichotomy is a short cut. But in reality there is a variety of issues that might 'test' someone's location in the political universe. And politicians are not necessarily predictable on all those issues.
Eagle River - Amy Demboski - one of the most conservative Assembly member representing a very conservative part of Anchorage. She's going to stay in office.
West Anchorage - Ernie Hall - had become a conservative vote and wasn't running again. He's likely being replaced by Eric Croft, who is more liberal establishment.
East Anchorage - Paul Honeman was in the liberal team and it looks like he will be replaced by another liberal - Forrest Dunbar.
Mid-Town - Dick Traini who has been on the Assembly longer than anyone else ever - is probably genetically more conservative, but his degrees in public planning and public administration gave him skills to analyze more objectively, and he's been considered a key player among the liberals. He's going to stay for another term.
South Anchorage - Jennifer Johnson has been considered as a member of the conservative wing of the Assembly and the race to replace her is close. But John Weddleton is slightly ahead (91% of the precincts reporting) with 3545 votes (43.40%) to Treg Taylor with 3297 votes (40.36%). Weddleton was very active in the rewrite of Title 21 which set the guidelines for building and development of Anchorage and would be in the liberal side if he wins. Taylor has billed himself as a conservative.
[Next update keeps a similar margin: Weddleton 3786 (43%) and Taylor 3527 (40%) with 92% of the vote.]
[11:15pm update: Weddleton edges a little more ahead 4711 - 4421 (43.38% to 40.71%) with 92.3% of the vote in that race counted. Though I don't think that includes the early and absentee votes.]
So, at this point, three liberals have won seats on the Assembly (a change of one more liberal) and one conservative has kept her seat. The final seat is too close to call.
The new assembly will be either be seven leaning left and four leaning right, or eight leaning left and three leaning right.
You can check for later results on the Weddleton/Taylor race here. (District 6, Seat J)
And I should say this liberal/conservative dichotomy is a short cut. But in reality there is a variety of issues that might 'test' someone's location in the political universe. And politicians are not necessarily predictable on all those issues.
Demboski, Croft, Traini, Dunbar Look Like Winners, Other Races Closer
Demboski, Croft, Traini, Dunbar look like they are winners.
The South Anchorage race is too close to call.
Bettye Davis is likely the winner in her School District race, the other race is too close.
The Tax proposition is likely to pass - this is the one former mayor Dan Sullivan supported.
The props look mostly yes. The school bonds are not certain. The Girdwood proposition looks shaky. Marijuana tax is a landslide.
You can see the exact numbers for Assembly and School Board here. And the propositions here.
(These links update, so the numbers you get will depend when you link. I'm linking now to the 21:57pm edition.)
The South Anchorage race is too close to call.
Bettye Davis is likely the winner in her School District race, the other race is too close.
The Tax proposition is likely to pass - this is the one former mayor Dan Sullivan supported.
The props look mostly yes. The school bonds are not certain. The Girdwood proposition looks shaky. Marijuana tax is a landslide.
You can see the exact numbers for Assembly and School Board here. And the propositions here.
(These links update, so the numbers you get will depend when you link. I'm linking now to the 21:57pm edition.)
58% of Precincts Reporting - Numbers Look More Like Expected
Here's the 21:39 report with 58% of precincts reporting.
ASSEMBLY - DISTRICT 2 - SEAT A
|
Votes | Percent | |
Demboski | 1252 | ||
Begich | 811 | 39.34% | |
Write In Votes | 12 | 0.58% | |
ASSEMBLY - DISTRICT 3 - SEAT D
|
|||
Perman | 950 | 15.52% | |
Darden | 287 | 4.69% | |
Croft | 2943 | 48.07% | |
Trombley | 1920 | 31.36% | |
Write In Votes | 22 | 0.36% | |
ASSEMBLY - DISTRICT 4 - SEAT F
|
|||
Alleva | 1179 | ||
Traini | 2041 | 62.55% | |
Write In Votes | 43 | 1.32% | |
ASSEMBLY - DISTRICT 5 - SEAT H
|
|||
Dunbar | 2478 | 59.06% | |
Gales | 1704 | 40.61% | |
Write In Votes | 14 | 0.33% | |
ASSEMBLY - DISTRICT 6 - SEAT J | |||
Schimscheimer | 497 | 14.25% | |
Weddleton | 1468 | 42.10% | |
Taylor | 1498 | 42.96% | |
Write In Votes | 23 | 0.69% | |
SCHOOL BOARD - SEAT A
| |||
Davis | 11,394 | 57.79% | |
Hughes | 8126 | 41.22% | |
Write In Votes | 196 | 0.99% | |
SCHOOL BOARD - SEAT B
|
|||
Schuster | 6486 | 34.91% | |
Nees | 5472 | 29.45% | |
Marsett | 6406 | 34.48% |
Labels:
Anchorage,
election 2016
Very First Anchorage Election Returns Show Conservative Surge
It's not clear what these votes represent. It says 0.0% of 124 precincts reporting.
So, are these early votes? There really aren't enough of them and in the past these have been counted after all the other votes were counted.
Did someone hack the machines and get things primed with a starting bias? (Just asking questions that pop into my mind.) I'm sure there's a perfectly good explanation. But let's get the starting numbers documented.
This is for 20:03 pm - so no votes have even had time to get downtown to the election headquarters yet.
ASSEMBLY - DISTRICT 2 - SEAT A
DEMBOSKI, Amy 253 72.49%
BEGICH, Nicholas 94 26.93%
Write-in Votes 2 0.57%
ASSEMBLY - DISTRICT 3 - SEAT D
PERMAN, Ira 40 11.66%
DARDEN, Dustin 11 3.21%
CROFT, Eric 114 33.24%
TROMBLEY, Adam1 78 51.90%
Write-in Votes 0 0.00%
ASSEMBLY - DISTRICT 4 - SEAT F
ALLEVA, Ron 111 39.78%
TRAINI, Dick 164 58.78%
Write-in Votes 4 1.43%
ASSEMBLY - DISTRICT 5 - SEAT H
DUNBAR, Forrest 188 45.97%
GALES, Terre 219 53.55%
Write-in Votes 2 0.49%
ASSEMBLY - DISTRICT 6 - SEAT J
SCHIMSCHEIMER, Mark 76 13.82%
WEDDLETON, John 170 30.91%
TAYLOR, Treg 301 54.73%
Write-in Votes 3 0.55%
SCHOOL BOARD - SEAT A
DAVIS, Bettye 840 44.03%
HUGHES, Brent 1050 55.03% Write-in Votes 18 0.94%
SCHOOL BOARD - SEAT B
SCHUSTER, Kay 693 37.77%
NEES, David 604 32.92%
MARSETT, Starr 519 28.28%
[UPDATE: Here is the first report for the propositions.]
PROP 1 ANCHORAGE SCHOOL DISTRICT CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS
YES 746 35.93%
NO 1330 64.07%
PROP 2 MARIJUANA SALES TAX
YES 1703 81.37%
NO 390 18.63%
PROP 3 AREA SAFETY CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS
YES 1243 59.13%
NO 859 40.87%
PROP 4 PARKS & REC CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT
YES 907 43.33%
NO 1186 56.67%
Prop 4 Parks and Rec Capital Improvements
YES 766 44.07%
NO 972 55.93%
PROP 5 ARDSA STORM & DRAINAGE
YES 1059 50.36%
NO 1044 49.64%
Prop 5 Ardsa & Strom and Drainage Bonds
YES 805 52.72%
NO 722 47.28%
PROP 6 ANCHORAGE FIRE SERVICE AREA FIRE PROTECTION BONDS
YES 1276 60.56%
NO 831 39.44%
Prop 6 Anchorage Fire Service Area Protection Bonds
YES 1203 60.67%
NO 780 39.33%
PROP 7 ANCHORAGE METROPOLITAN POLICE SERVICE AREA FACILITIES BONDS
YES 1101 52.35%
NO 1002 47.65%
Prop 7 Anchorage Metropoliain Police Service Area Facities
YES 1093 52.40%
NO 993 47.60%
PROP 8 TAX INCREASE LIMITATION
YES 1444 69.56%
NO 632 30.44%
So, are these early votes? There really aren't enough of them and in the past these have been counted after all the other votes were counted.
Did someone hack the machines and get things primed with a starting bias? (Just asking questions that pop into my mind.) I'm sure there's a perfectly good explanation. But let's get the starting numbers documented.
This is for 20:03 pm - so no votes have even had time to get downtown to the election headquarters yet.
ASSEMBLY - DISTRICT 2 - SEAT A
DEMBOSKI, Amy 253 72.49%
BEGICH, Nicholas 94 26.93%
Write-in Votes 2 0.57%
ASSEMBLY - DISTRICT 3 - SEAT D
PERMAN, Ira 40 11.66%
DARDEN, Dustin 11 3.21%
CROFT, Eric 114 33.24%
TROMBLEY, Adam1 78 51.90%
Write-in Votes 0 0.00%
ASSEMBLY - DISTRICT 4 - SEAT F
ALLEVA, Ron 111 39.78%
TRAINI, Dick 164 58.78%
Write-in Votes 4 1.43%
ASSEMBLY - DISTRICT 5 - SEAT H
DUNBAR, Forrest 188 45.97%
GALES, Terre 219 53.55%
Write-in Votes 2 0.49%
ASSEMBLY - DISTRICT 6 - SEAT J
SCHIMSCHEIMER, Mark 76 13.82%
WEDDLETON, John 170 30.91%
TAYLOR, Treg 301 54.73%
Write-in Votes 3 0.55%
SCHOOL BOARD - SEAT A
DAVIS, Bettye 840 44.03%
HUGHES, Brent 1050 55.03% Write-in Votes 18 0.94%
SCHOOL BOARD - SEAT B
SCHUSTER, Kay 693 37.77%
NEES, David 604 32.92%
MARSETT, Starr 519 28.28%
[UPDATE: Here is the first report for the propositions.]
PROP 1 ANCHORAGE SCHOOL DISTRICT CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS
YES 746 35.93%
NO 1330 64.07%
PROP 2 MARIJUANA SALES TAX
YES 1703 81.37%
NO 390 18.63%
PROP 3 AREA SAFETY CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS
YES 1243 59.13%
NO 859 40.87%
PROP 4 PARKS & REC CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT
YES 907 43.33%
NO 1186 56.67%
Prop 4 Parks and Rec Capital Improvements
YES 766 44.07%
NO 972 55.93%
PROP 5 ARDSA STORM & DRAINAGE
YES 1059 50.36%
NO 1044 49.64%
Prop 5 Ardsa & Strom and Drainage Bonds
YES 805 52.72%
NO 722 47.28%
PROP 6 ANCHORAGE FIRE SERVICE AREA FIRE PROTECTION BONDS
YES 1276 60.56%
NO 831 39.44%
Prop 6 Anchorage Fire Service Area Protection Bonds
YES 1203 60.67%
NO 780 39.33%
PROP 7 ANCHORAGE METROPOLITAN POLICE SERVICE AREA FACILITIES BONDS
YES 1101 52.35%
NO 1002 47.65%
Prop 7 Anchorage Metropoliain Police Service Area Facities
YES 1093 52.40%
NO 993 47.60%
PROP 8 TAX INCREASE LIMITATION
YES 1444 69.56%
NO 632 30.44%
Labels:
Anchorage,
election 2016
Clutter Wars: Mom Liked Pussy Willows, Files, Neighborhood Clutter
My mom's house and garage are a great stimulus to clean out our own stuff and we're working on it daily. But the inflow of paper courtesy of the US mail makes it a never ending process.
But then there's stuff that has meaning. For instance, my mom loved pussy willows and had bunches of dried pussy willows in vases around the house when she died. My heartless friends saved me lots of agonizing decision making by glaring at me and pointing to the garden recycling bin in LA. (Thank you, really.)
But as I wandered our snow free yard recently, I couldn't help but break off some fresh pussy willows. There's a reason my mom like them.
So I put them in a vase in the bathroom.
Then I saw the little glass bowl where I've put the even littler blue velvet bag with some of my mom's ashes. Since my mom like the pussy willows, I thought I'd put her next to them.
I understand this could seem rather bizarre, but having a bit of my mom nearby gives me some sense of normalcy, that she's still around. I can share things with her that she would like. Fortunately, I have no sense of her being there when I wouldn't want her watching me. She always gave me lots of space and freedom and never guilted me over things. That was a great gift.
As I said, I've been tackling old paperwork, sorting through files upon files. One pile is for direct transit to the recycling bin. (I've been removing this pile before getting more files, so there was a lot more than just this.) Another pile has to be shredded first - anything with identifiers, particularly social security numbers.
As you can see in the picture, there are a lot of empty folders too. Some go to recycling, some I might reuse.
And there are things to sort through more carefully. For instance, I found a small envelope from my father with a handwritten label, "Some poetry Steve might enjoy reading." There's insight to parts of my father's life we never discussed when he was alive. And then there's a poem called "Heimweh." Only the title is in German (it means homesick). It's about suddenly thinking about his childhood home and how it made him cry.. (His aunt in Chicago helped him secure a visa so he could flee Nazi Germany, but he was never able to secure visas to get his parents out.) The last stanza gives some justification for keeping some of this stuff.
My father lives here still with me, through his poems, his old letters, some of his things and documents. This document was in the same folder with the poems.
Here's the nearly empty file cabinet where all this came from. There are some folders I still need to go through and sort more carefully, but this does feel like I've accomplished something.
And then I walked around the block to get some fresh air and was reminded that my clutter level wasn't all that bad.
Here's the house that burned last month.
And front yard.
Stuff!! Glad I don't have to clean out their yard and house.
But then there's stuff that has meaning. For instance, my mom loved pussy willows and had bunches of dried pussy willows in vases around the house when she died. My heartless friends saved me lots of agonizing decision making by glaring at me and pointing to the garden recycling bin in LA. (Thank you, really.)
But as I wandered our snow free yard recently, I couldn't help but break off some fresh pussy willows. There's a reason my mom like them.
So I put them in a vase in the bathroom.
Then I saw the little glass bowl where I've put the even littler blue velvet bag with some of my mom's ashes. Since my mom like the pussy willows, I thought I'd put her next to them.
I understand this could seem rather bizarre, but having a bit of my mom nearby gives me some sense of normalcy, that she's still around. I can share things with her that she would like. Fortunately, I have no sense of her being there when I wouldn't want her watching me. She always gave me lots of space and freedom and never guilted me over things. That was a great gift.
As I said, I've been tackling old paperwork, sorting through files upon files. One pile is for direct transit to the recycling bin. (I've been removing this pile before getting more files, so there was a lot more than just this.) Another pile has to be shredded first - anything with identifiers, particularly social security numbers.
As you can see in the picture, there are a lot of empty folders too. Some go to recycling, some I might reuse.
And there are things to sort through more carefully. For instance, I found a small envelope from my father with a handwritten label, "Some poetry Steve might enjoy reading." There's insight to parts of my father's life we never discussed when he was alive. And then there's a poem called "Heimweh." Only the title is in German (it means homesick). It's about suddenly thinking about his childhood home and how it made him cry.. (His aunt in Chicago helped him secure a visa so he could flee Nazi Germany, but he was never able to secure visas to get his parents out.) The last stanza gives some justification for keeping some of this stuff.
"I shed my tears in agony
for I was mourning,
but in vain,
since all the world that
used to be
will never be again"
My father lives here still with me, through his poems, his old letters, some of his things and documents. This document was in the same folder with the poems.
It fills in bits and pieces of his life I knew very little about. This was in files I'd glanced through after he died and knew enough to keep for sorting later. Later is here, I guess. It's back into another keep and look through later pile. But I'm getting rid of a lot of the stuff that is just taking up room. And while the historian/archeologist in me would keep all the old income tax folders and checkbooks, because they do document the times I lived and how we spent money and how much things cost, my mom's garage screams out at me to just shred it.
Here's the nearly empty file cabinet where all this came from. There are some folders I still need to go through and sort more carefully, but this does feel like I've accomplished something.
And then I walked around the block to get some fresh air and was reminded that my clutter level wasn't all that bad.
Here's the house that burned last month.
And here's another neighbor's backyard.
And front yard.
Stuff!! Glad I don't have to clean out their yard and house.
Monday, April 04, 2016
This Seemed Obvious Last November
An LA Times article Saturday said:
I don't usually write, "I told you so" posts, but when I read that, I couldn't help but think about this post I put up in November:
That post said that when the media focus his poll numbers and on the percent of votes Trump was getting in the multi-candidate Republican primaries, they were missing the bigger picture - that most Republicans were voting against Trump. The post stepped back even further and said if you counted all voters - Republicans, Democrats, and all the various independent voters - he was only pulling about 7% of all voters. He was the biggest fish in the relatively small Republican party pond. But in the bigger pond, he was pretty small.
At that point I was only saying how many people were voting for others, I didn't have a basis to say that the rest had a strong unfavorable impression of him. But the LA Times article says that evidence is now available.
[Sorry for reposting, Feebburner issues again.]
"For months, as Donald Trump lurched from controversy to controversy, commentators marveled that his voters remained loyal: Trump is impervious to political attack, some said.
Not so. Trump wasn't immune; analysts were just failing to look at the whole board."
I don't usually write, "I told you so" posts, but when I read that, I couldn't help but think about this post I put up in November:
Trump's Poll Numbers: 70-80% Of Republicans Support Someone Else
That post said that when the media focus his poll numbers and on the percent of votes Trump was getting in the multi-candidate Republican primaries, they were missing the bigger picture - that most Republicans were voting against Trump. The post stepped back even further and said if you counted all voters - Republicans, Democrats, and all the various independent voters - he was only pulling about 7% of all voters. He was the biggest fish in the relatively small Republican party pond. But in the bigger pond, he was pretty small.
At that point I was only saying how many people were voting for others, I didn't have a basis to say that the rest had a strong unfavorable impression of him. But the LA Times article says that evidence is now available.
"While Trump’s polarizing campaign did not dent his standing with core supporters in the Republican primaries, it took a punishing toll on how the rest of the electorate views him. Trump’s image, which was poor even before he ran for president, has plunged to an unequaled low. Among scores of major political figures measured in polls over the last 30 years, Trump’s numbers are the worst.The article goes on to explain why people think Trump has no chance to win the presidency if he gets the Republican nomination. While I think that's the case - and said so in the November post - I'd haggle a little with this point made in the LA Times article:
If Trump were to win the GOP presidential nomination with his current public image, he would be the most unpopular nominee in the history of U.S. opinion surveys, veteran Democratic pollster Peter Hart said in an email."
"Many examples certainly exist of public figures who have succeeded in improving damaged reputations. . .I would argue that
Usually, however, political candidates' images get worse, not better, during a campaign. Democratic strategists are counting on that."
- historically, candidates haven't gotten the primary exposure of the 2012 and 2016 Republican primaries (all the multi-candidate Republican debates and all the social media exposure), so I'd expect the candidates today are better known and much of the damage is already done
- candidates who have gotten past nominations had much better approval ratings going into the election, so it would be more likely for their ratings to dip
- if Trump does get the nomination, I expect he'd change his presentation to reflect his new audience, though it's hard to be sure what is bluster for the far right (that could be changed) and what is true Trump (that would be harder to change)
Labels:
election 2016,
Knowing,
media,
Trump
Saturday, April 02, 2016
Instead Of Taxes, How About An Alaska Membership Fee?
Back in 2008, at his corruption trial, Vic Kohring said that he had signed a 'no taxes' pledge. He could not vote for any tax. However, if the tax were called a fee, he might be able to vote for it.
Eight years later we still have legislators who are allergic to the word 'tax' and break out in hives and start hyperventilating when anyone utters the word. Some key legislators in Juneau are willing to inflict enormous damage to the state of Alaska rather than even consider something like an income tax.
I have a proposal.
The Alaska Membership Fee
Everyone who lives in Alaska is eligible to buy a membership. Memberships would be sold on a sliding scale based on factors such as net worth, income, location, age, etc.
The biggest attraction of the membership would be:
There could be a number of other perks one gets with an AMC such as:
Airlines
Health Care
Independent Adoption Center
Golf Clubs and Health Clubs
Private Schools
Universities
Movies
Museums
Hotels
Eight years later we still have legislators who are allergic to the word 'tax' and break out in hives and start hyperventilating when anyone utters the word. Some key legislators in Juneau are willing to inflict enormous damage to the state of Alaska rather than even consider something like an income tax.
I have a proposal.
The Alaska Membership Fee
Everyone who lives in Alaska is eligible to buy a membership. Memberships would be sold on a sliding scale based on factors such as net worth, income, location, age, etc.
The biggest attraction of the membership would be:
- eligibility to apply for an Alaska Permanent Fund Check - it wouldn't guarantee eligibility for the check, but without an Alaska Membership Card (AMC) one couldn't apply.
There could be a number of other perks one gets with an AMC such as:
- free public education
- discounts (or even free pass for higher levels) at state parks, state ferry, state run airports
- access to Pioneer Homes
- discounts and scholarships at University of Alaska campuses
- discounts for driver's license, fishing licenses, hunting licenses, etc.
- use of the Anchorage LIO when legislators aren't there
People who live in rural areas will have different needs from people who live in urban areas. Age may also lead to different kinds and levels of service. These will all be figured out. Or, the legislature might decide that simplicity may be preferable to complicated pricing and eligibility requirements and choose to use one or two factors, such as income or net worth.
Alaska Membership would help people realize the different benefits they get from the state that they normally enough without even thinking about it. After all, good government is invisible. Most people only notice government when it stops working well:
- when diseases break out
- when potholes aren't repaired
- when traffic lights don't work
- when police abuse citizens
- when foster kids are abused
- when their own kids don't learn at school
- when garbage piles up and air is polluted
- when the water is no longer safe to drink
- when state parks are all closed and local park equipment is broken
- when voting machines are hacked
- when gasoline pumps show more gallons than you actually got
When such government services break down, we end up paying more to deal with the consequences:
- higher insurance and repair bills because of poorly engineered and maintained roads, contaminated water and air
- lost work days and health costs because of lack of sanitation or access to basic health care
- shortsighted legislators because of poor schooling
- lost work time because of long waits in line because there aren't enough employees
- higher need for police, courts, and social services because foster kids aren't well supported
- weaker economy because business can't get good employees when government services make Alaska an undesirable place to live
You get the point. Some of our influential legislators don't. Their mantra is 'government is bad,' 'taxes are worse."
But we wouldn't have to have an income tax or a sales tax. Instead we'd all become members of the State of Alaska and our membership fees would go towards all those services that our legislators say are wasteful luxuries, like health care for the poor, like school teachers.
Mostly, the creation of Alaska Membership would remove the key obstacle for those legislators who, like Kohring, can't accept the word tax, but could get behind a fee. And it would be voluntary. No one would have to join, but they couldn't apply for the Alaska Permanent Fund check if they didn't. And they could buy Alaska T-shirts and hats at a discount.
I'd note that plenty of organizations, public and private, already use sliding scale fees for their services. Here are just a couple of examples:
Airlines
Health Care
Independent Adoption Center
Golf Clubs and Health Clubs
Private Schools
Universities
Movies
Museums
Hotels
Friday, April 01, 2016
Trump Firing Slovenian Born Wife For American Born Spouse
There has been some low level sniping about the most anti-immigration presidential candidate in anyone's memory having had two immigrant wives and only one American born wife. Apparently the ratio is going to be evened up.
Trump was almost 29 when he married his first wife, Czech born Ivana, in 1977. Although she was three years younger, Trump was her second husband. By the time she was 43, he lost interest in her and she divorced him in 1992 because he was carrying on with American born model Marla Maples. They married in December 1993, about two months after their son was born. Maples was 30 years old when they married, 17 years younger than Trump.
This marriage to an American born woman lasted only six years, until Maples was 36 in 1999.
Trump didn't remarry until 2005, to another foreign born woman, also from the former Soviet bloc - this time to another model, Melania Knauss, from Slovenia. She was 23 years younger than Trump. Eleven years later and they are still married.
But Trump's supporters, contrasting his love for immigrant woman to his anti-immigrant campaign rhetoric, have begun to question whether Trump really walks his talk.
Pressure increased with the December release of Michael Moore's latest film Where To Invade Next?, which included a section on Slovenia's free college education for all students, including Americans. Moore interviewed students at the University of Ljubljana in Slovenia, where education is free*.
Given that one of Bernie Sanders' key proposals is free public university education for all, it's particularly galling to Trump's supporters that Trump's wife actually attended the University of Ljubljana (and knows how to pronounce it), the very university Moore featured in what Trump fans see as an American hating film.
Knauss is also pushing 36 now, and pundits are speculating it is time to switch to a younger, American-born wife, with whom Trump's supporters would be much more comfortable in the White House. I wasn't able to track down any information on the mystery lady.
More on this story can be found here.
*I met a Slovenian in Anchorage this week and I mentioned the free college education featured in the movie. He made a face and said, "You get what you pay for."
Trump was almost 29 when he married his first wife, Czech born Ivana, in 1977. Although she was three years younger, Trump was her second husband. By the time she was 43, he lost interest in her and she divorced him in 1992 because he was carrying on with American born model Marla Maples. They married in December 1993, about two months after their son was born. Maples was 30 years old when they married, 17 years younger than Trump.
This marriage to an American born woman lasted only six years, until Maples was 36 in 1999.
Trump didn't remarry until 2005, to another foreign born woman, also from the former Soviet bloc - this time to another model, Melania Knauss, from Slovenia. She was 23 years younger than Trump. Eleven years later and they are still married.
But Trump's supporters, contrasting his love for immigrant woman to his anti-immigrant campaign rhetoric, have begun to question whether Trump really walks his talk.
Pressure increased with the December release of Michael Moore's latest film Where To Invade Next?, which included a section on Slovenia's free college education for all students, including Americans. Moore interviewed students at the University of Ljubljana in Slovenia, where education is free*.
Given that one of Bernie Sanders' key proposals is free public university education for all, it's particularly galling to Trump's supporters that Trump's wife actually attended the University of Ljubljana (and knows how to pronounce it), the very university Moore featured in what Trump fans see as an American hating film.
Knauss is also pushing 36 now, and pundits are speculating it is time to switch to a younger, American-born wife, with whom Trump's supporters would be much more comfortable in the White House. I wasn't able to track down any information on the mystery lady.
More on this story can be found here.
*I met a Slovenian in Anchorage this week and I mentioned the free college education featured in the movie. He made a face and said, "You get what you pay for."
Labels:
election 2016,
humor,
Trump
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