Tuesday, May 03, 2011

America's Wealth of Fact-Free Political Opinion

It appears that many politicians and commentators - particularly those on the right, though some on the left as well - have adopted a fact-free rhetoric to support their positions.  Apparently, if fat-free is good for your physical health, fact-free is good for your mental health.  Or at least the political health of fact-free proponents.

Actually, while fact-free opinions are problematic, the real issue here is made-up facts that have no basis in reality but sound good and support one's argument.  To be clear, I'm using 'facts' as statements which can (to a certain extent) be proven true or false.  So you can have false facts, and that's really my concern.  Maybe I should have said Truth-Free, but it's not nearly as alliterative.  But at least I'm disclosing my own slight-of-word here. 

Let's look at an example.  Dave Cuddy's Compass Piece in the Anchorage Daily News Monday offers a number of glaring examples.

1.  He starts by saying:
OK, so our nation is now in bankruptcy.

Is the US 'in bankruptcy'?  Not even close.  Investopedia defines bankruptcy this way:
A legal proceeding involving a person or business that is unable to repay outstanding debts. The bankruptcy process begins with a petition filed by the debtor (most common) or on behalf of creditors (less common). All of the debtor's assets are measured and evaluated, whereupon the assets are used to repay a portion of outstanding debt. Upon the successful completion of bankruptcy proceedings, the debtor is relieved of the debt obligations incurred prior to filing for bankruptcy.
The US has not filed for bankruptcy.  Why not?  Because our assets far exceed our debits.

According to Wikipedia 
As of March 25, 2011, the Total Public Debt Outstanding of the United States of America was $14.26 trillion

Rutledgecapital says the US total assets come to about $200 trillion.  Mybudget360 estimates that US household net value in the US in 2009 was $70 trillion alone.  This later figure doesn't count any of the assets of the US government, whether we're talking about land, buildings, machinery, art and historical artifacts and monuments, and on and on. How much do you think Yosemite is worth or the Everglades?  You get the idea. 

So, we have the assets to pay our debts with plenty left over.   

The US is NOT in bankruptcy. Rather, we're like some rich guy who has the means, but just doesn't want to pay his bills. Yes, we should be careful with the spending, but I believe the right's 'starve the beast'  strategy of continually reducing taxes, so there will be a 'crisis' requiring us to cut government, is now being played out.  



2.   Some of this is so fuzzy that it defies proving true or false.  But let's try another.
Obamacare is a consequence of importing the poorest and neediest of legal and illegal immigrants, and of bankrupting our entitlement programs.
Nothing about the flaws of capitalism that lead insurance companies to cut off those with pre-existing conditions or to lobby Congress to prevent government health systems from bargaining for lower drug prices? 

It's the fault of immigrants.  Where are the facts?  If we look at Medicare we find that the population is 78% white - probably not a lot of  immigrants, legal or illegal.  Hispanic is only 8%. 

United StatesPercent0% - 100%

White78%
Black10%
Hispanic8%
Other4%

OK, maybe he wasn't talking about Medicare. But even Medicaid is only about 1/4 Hispanic.




United StatesPercent0% - 100%

White43%
Black21%
Hispanic28%
Other8%

We all know [sarcasm alert] that poverty among Blacks and Hispanics has nothing to do with past or continuing discrimination and everything to do with their just being inferior and lazy. That's why they're getting medicaid. 

What about Social Security?  It appears that ethnicity data for social security is unreliable and not readily available.  But I suspect there aren't too many illegal aliens and I'm still not sure what Cuddy's problem with legal aliens is.  Since Cuddy is making the claim, it should be up to him to prove it, not me.


What about Veterans benefits?  It doesn't look like Hispanics (US born, legal or illegal aliens) are causing the problem.



How exactly are legal and illegal aliens causing the problem?  It's my understanding of immigration law that the 'neediest' don't have much chance to get to the US as legal alien.  We like people with money and education. Those poor that do get in, make up a tiny percent of legal immigrants. 

And if Cuddy has a problem with legal aliens, how many generations make you ok? And if we're calculating the cost of legal immigrants to the US, how about calculating the benefits?  How do we factor, for instance, the financial benefit to the US of people like Google co-founder Sergy Brin? 

3.  How about this one?  
Higher taxes are a consequence of crazy overspending. Stimulus spending is a consequence of government interfering in the housing industry -- pushing for too liberal lending to put people who couldn't really afford housing into houses, artificially stimulating the economy ... and resulting in a housing bubble that now threatens our economy (coupled with the structural deficit).
What higher taxes is Cuddy talking about?  From USA Today May 2010:

Amid complaints about high taxes and calls for a smaller government, Americans paid their lowest level of taxes last year since Harry Truman's presidency, a USA TODAY analysis of federal data found.
Some conservative political movements such as the "Tea Party" have criticized federal spending as being out of control. While spending is up, taxes have fallen to exceptionally low levels.
Federal, state and local income taxes consumed 9.2% of all personal income in 2009, the lowest rate since 1950, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. That rate is far below the historic average of 12% for the last half-century. The overall tax burden hit bottom in December at 8.8.% of income before rising slightly in the first three months of 2010.

Here's a chart of tax rates  which shows that in the 1950's the top marginal tax rate was around 91% for income over $400,000.  Why is millionaire Cuddy complaining about high taxes?  His income bracket hasn't had it so good since the 1920's with just a couple of years of exceptions.

And why is he blaming government?  I'm sure he knows that Clinton handed GW Bush a debt free country in 2000 and it's the GW Bush pro-capitalism years that pushed us into the financial crisis we face today.   I know that Republicans don't think it's fair to mention the Bush legacy, after all he only had eight years to run up the national debt, while Obama has had two years and three plus months now to fix it.

I won't even get into the idea that the housing crisis was caused by liberalizing lending policies.  Credit default swaps played no role? Here's a Pulitzer Prize winning analysis that refutes Cuddy's opinion on this.  Judge for yourself, but don't simply accept it because Cuddy said it.

4.   One more, I don't have all night to check Cuddy's facts for him.  I'm just trying to make the point he's loose with his facts. 
Half of American voters now pay no federal income tax, and so, have no motivation to keep spending and taxing down.
First, the statistic is 47% of Americans, not of voters. I'm not sure if anyone has figured out what percent of voters don't pay federal taxes.   Most of us know that lobbyists have a much greater influence on taxes and spending than do voters - especially voters with low enough income to not pay taxes. Except, of course, the General Electrics, but then they don't vote - they have to pay for legislators. 

To Cuddy's credit, he mentions federal income taxes, which many commenters have not.  Of the 47%, many pay a variety of other taxes.  Those with lower incomes pay much higher percent of tax in payroll and other taxes than the wealthy. 

TheAtlanticWire deconstructs the 47% pay no taxes 'fact' that comes from a Tax Policy study last year.  The piece quotes a NY Times article on why the wealthy pay more taxes:
There is no question that the wealthy pay a higher overall tax rate than any other group. That is an American tradition. But there is also no question that their tax rates have fallen more than any other group’s over the last three decades. The only reason they are paying more taxes than in the past is that their pretax incomes have risen so rapidly — which hardly seems a great rationale for a further tax cut.
 And it quotes another Atlantic writer to point out that the increase in people not paying federal income taxes has Republican fingerprints. 
The Atlantic's Derek Thompson argues the 47 percent statistic is "a monster that Republicans have helped to create." Looking at the Earned Income Tax Credit--which pushes many Americans' federal income tax burden to zero--Thompson explains: "The EITC is a Republican creation. It was enacted in 1975 under President Ford (a Republican), and expanded numerous times over the last 35 years by Republicans."
 One wonders why Cuddy first complains that tax rates are so high (when as shown above they aren't)  and then complains they are too low.  But he doesn't call for raising taxes, rather he calls only for cutting spending. 


It's funny though.  I agree that there are a lot of Americans who feel entitled to a good life without paying for it.  But I think a lot of that comes from the impact of capitalism. 

All those advertisements tempting people with a cornucopia of products and services.  And all those credit card offers filling our mailboxes telling us to spend, spend, spend.  And making bankers, like Cuddy, wealthy on people's growing debt through usurious interest rates.

And let's remember that a huge percent of the entitlements - like health care - goes to those capitalist companies Cuddy thinks will save us, such as drug companies, medical equipment manufacturers, and hospitals.  In most cases, the consumer never even sees the money.  And defense spending goes to a myriad of contractors who supply everything from food, communication, transportation, weapons, vehicles and planes, and on and on. 


So beware of the truth-starved opinion pieces.   Even the ones you agree with!

Sunday, May 01, 2011

What Bush Couldn't Do in Seven Years, Obama Does in Two - Bin Laden Reported Dead

Just got back from a bike ride and was about to delete my ThaiVisa news feed when I saw the words:

U.S. President Barack Obama is expected to announce on late Sunday evening that al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden has been killed in Pakistan, nearly 10 years after the devastating attacks of September 11.

The White House confirmed that Obama would hold an unprecedented late-night news conference, but gave no details. All the major news networks in the United States cited sources saying that Bin Laden had been killed.

According to Fox News, Osama bin Laden was killed over a week ago by a U.S. missile in Pakistan. CBS News, NBC News and CNN also said that Bin Laden's body is in possession of the United States.

The cynic in me is wondering how the right, particularly the crazy right, are going to deal with this.  Let's see.  GW made it his mission to find and kill Bin Laden.  The BBC quoted Bush on Dec. 14, 2001:
"We're going to get [Bin Laden] Dead or alive, it doesn't matter to me." 12/14/2001 [32]
But by the time he left office seven years later, he Bin Laden neither captured nor dead.

The Kenyan, Muslim, socialist president (as some on the right like to characterize Barrack Obama) managed to do the deed in a little over two years. 

Nixon's attorney general used to say, "Watch what we do, not what we say."  Good advice then and now.  Bush said.  Obama did.

Clearly this is a huge symbolic event, and symbolism is everything.  But how much actual physical threat was Bin Laden these days?  I don't know.  And how will the symbolism play in the Muslim world?  We'll see.

At least former President GW Bush handled it well:
This momentous achievement marks a victory for America, for people who seek peace around the world, and for all those who lost loved ones on September 11, 2001.

Clutter Wars - More Locks and Surprise Hoya Flowers






In March I posted a picture of two Master locks I'd found uncluttering.  I'd always been frustrated with locks with lost combinations.  But this time I googled a way to get the combinations from Google.  (Luni left a comment on that post with links to websites that showed how to crack the locks, but I couldn't make it work.)

As uncluttering continued, more locks showed up until I had six, the most you could get combinations for with one request. 

Not sure what I need six locks for, but I've sent in for the combinations.







And today I discovered how cluttered (or maybe just busy) when I found that our hosta [for some reason it came to me later this is a hoya, not a hosta] plant is now blooming.  How did it get this far along without me even noticing buds?   Well, this is positive neglect. 







Maybe  I've concentrated  too much on the philodendron jungle that's been in there.  This floor pot had vines growing up the wall and then dangling down.  I figured I could clear the floor space for better things by repotting.  So here I've pulled all the vines down and started untangling them and cutting them for repotting. 







I'm not sure I made a wise move, we'll see in a few weeks I guess.  I thought I could cut them at the joints and put them in new soil, build a shelf that got them well off the ground.  The shelf worked, but they are struggling to gain traction. (I found the white pot cleaning out the backyard greenhouse!)

The ones on top are still green after a couple of weeks, but limp.  But nothing as bad as the yellow, curly leaves dangling down on the left. 

We'll see.   I did leave a few in the old pot in case these don't make it.  And we gained a lot of room on the floor. 

We've got visitors headed this way in June so I have motivation to step up the clutter war.  Unlike Afghanistan, this is a war I know, with determination, I can win.  (Well, it never ends, but I can get to a point where it's controllable.)

Saturday, April 30, 2011

Bridgman/Packer - The Matrix of Dance

[8pm Discovery Theater tonight (Saturday) tickets here or at the box office.]

Last night we saw Bridgman/Packer perform in Anchorage.  We'd seen Under the Skin - their first piece Friday - here three years ago.  But I'd forgotten details.  It was just as amazing as it was the first time as the dancers perform against an audio/video backdrop that blurs the line between live and recorded, real and unreal, and does other tricks on your expectations of dance, art, and even gravity.  This is the Matrix of dance.
Packer, Bridgman, and videographer Bobrow after Friday performance

The second piece, co-commissioned by Anchorage's Out North Theater moves into yet another dimension.  [Look, I feel an obligation to write about this, but I also realize that what they do is so radically different, that there is nothing I can say that can capture it adequately.  Not just different, but amazing and spectacular].  In Under the Skin, there is a lot of video through which the live dancers dance, starting with the opening scene of letters zipping up.  But then previously shot images of the performers dance with the live performers on stage.  And then one more layer gets added - live video of the current performance is layered on top of it all until the audience is wondering which are the real dancers and which are the images.  Though this time around, the projected images were not as saturated as I remember last time, and so the live Bridgman and Packer did stand out from their paler video images.

Here's some video of Art Bridgman working with the lighting crew Wednesday evening for the Friday performance.  Myrna Packer was stretching on stage at the beginning.




But all the technology would just be a gimmick that was neat the first time, but flat once you've seen it, if the ideas behind the choreography and the quality of the dancing weren't first rate.  The precision necessary for them to be at exactly the right spot so that you can see the front of their live body superimposed with the back of the projected image of their back is incredible.

And perhaps I'm biased because the theme that jumps out at me is the theme of this blog - how do you know what you know?  What is real?  What is imagined?  How do the real world and the non-real world interact to lead us to think we know reality and truth?

The second piece - Double Expose - pushes to a whole new level.  A lot of the background images are very real street scenes and architectural settings through which Bridgman and Packer roam as six different characters - prerecorded, live, and as projections of their live performance.

What does it mean when you see the live Art Bridgman on stage dancing against a black background to the side of the stage while the projected image of him dancing is put in context in the video landscape center stage?  He's live on stage, but your eye is drawn to the image which is part of the scenery and where he interacts with a prerecorded, a live, and a live recorded Packer.  Or a prerecorded Bridgman.  What is more real?  What has more meaning?  The live man abstractly dancing against the black backdrop?  Or the image of that man interacting with other images?  And where should I look?  I'm paying money to see a live performance, so why is my eye pulled from the live performer to her image? At one point the lights are behind the performers and their shadow giants are also dancing on the walls of the theater in the audience. 

What does this say about how the human brain constructs its version of reality? 

At one point, their very realistic backgrounds change into fantastically playful fabric patterns, which come to life. [UPDATE 5/1/11: These were done by artist/animator Karen Aqua, who I was told is ill and hasn't seen the performance.  Send her good vibes.]  The colors and images were a total change from the noir feel of most of the realistic backgrounds.  The animation added yet another dimension to the juxtaposition of reality and image of reality.  Why are the filmed street scenes more 'real' than the animated tiger walking in the background?  After all, the filmed street scenes and arches and tunnels are no less humanly created artifacts than are the animated images.

The live performers dancing on the sides of the stage while their images were stage center in the scene interacting with the images of other characters also reminded me of puppeteers being the live animators of their on stage puppets.

I also pondered about how Bridgman/Packer  (I feel that now and then it should be Packer/Bridgman) play with so many different media, yet their performance, ultimately has to be seen live.

As you can see, they've invaded my brain and are rearranging the furniture.  We're going back tonight and will sit in a different location to see how that changes all this.

So, yes.  While there was a nice sized (and incredibly appreciative) audience last night, you can go to the Discovery Theater and get tickets for tonight's performance.  As good as these performers are, they are off the radar.  And when Bridgman/Packer is finally a 'household name' it will be much harder to get to see them.

Friday, April 29, 2011

Should You Drive to a Clean Energy Conference?


I guess if you use an clean energy vehicle

Thursday I took the bus to the conference - I had a kink in my knee and decided not to bike. There was standing room only on the bus coming home!  

Friday I decided to bike and after an unfortunate encounter with a curve, bump, and a muddy spot, I got back on the bike for the rest of the way to the conference.


The Denaina Center bike parking is pretty limited.


I had to park in the overflow parking.  The first tree was full even.

There was one vendor who had bike stuff, but there was no one there, so I can just give you some photos.   





There are lots of great new bike light options, but these  makes it possible to put a light on without any tools.  But there was no one there, so I couldn't ask who sells these in town.  (The first five I found online for the commuter set  were all priced in £s - starting at 24.99.)



Energy Conference - Wind and Hydrokinetic Power



James Jensen -Wind Energy Program Manager, Alaska Energy Authority 

Showing a map of Alaska with ratings for wind in different areas and now a map of the wind projects around the state, which match the areas with the best wind.

Wind Projects in Alaska either Railbelt or Rural

Rural - Wind-diesel systems - if not integrated, probably won't be successful.  In most cases wind primary source of power.  ON the Railbelt, more traditional wind.

 In rural Alaska mostly Utility owned and mostly grant funded.   Cheap projects.  On the railbelt, primarily commercial financing.  Rural many projects, small.  On the Railbelt only a few, larger projects. 


Gradual growth until April 06, and then surge in 2009 due to renewable energy fund which is driving the growth of Alaska wind industry now. 

Kodiak is the biggest success story - generating 9% of KEA's energy, reduced diesel based generation by 50%. 
Last ten years gone from no experience to many firms that have built several functioning projects.  AVEC has developed to the point where they have a standard wind-diesel system to offer villages. 

Biggest Opportunity
Displace heating fuel




Brent Petrie, Community Development Manager, Alaska Village Electric Cooperative (AVEC)

Board of Directors said to reduce diesel use by 25% in 10 years and power plants by 50% in ten years.  [I couldn't keep up with everything here - so here are a few of the slides:]



















Monty Worthington, Director of Project Development, Alaska - Ocean Renewable Power Company

Alaskans have used fishwheels for a long time. 

River hydrokinetic projects - not just Outsiders, but also Alaskans doing this. 









First hydrokinetic project installed August 2008.  Debris problems in rivers.   A lot of lessons from the Yukon River Inter-Tribal Watershed Council's Ruby project. 



AP&T's project at Eagle, Alaska.  Turbine underwater. 



Tanana Power Corps undershot waterwheel design. 



Nenana Hydrokinetic Test Site with University of Alaska.



Only meaningful users of tidal energy now are paddle boarders on the bore tide. 







Steve Selvaggio, Whitestone's Hyrokinetic Development


Sorry, I just couldn't keep up with this.  The link should help.












They are still answering questions now, but I'm going to post this.  I'm afraid it just gives you a glimpse, not much depth.  This was over my head. 

Grease to Bio Diesel - Jeff Jessen of Alaska Waste

Among the vendors I spoke with yesterday at the Business of Clean Energy in Alaska Conference was Jeff Jessen at Alaska Waste.  He talks about the cooking grease to bio diesel project that fuels many of their vehicles and the  project using waste grocery vegetables, wood chips, and horse manure.


Ameresco's Michael Bartlett: How an Energy Savings Peformance Contract Works

Among the vendors at the Business of Clean Energy in Alaska Conference yesterday was Michael Bartlett of Ameresco.  In the video below, he explains how the energy savings performance contract works.  His company works with school districts and other governmental organizations to evaluate their energy usage and design improvements to save energy and costs. They take their payment out over years from the savings.  He said they didn't work with private companies because their payback horizon is usually in months rather than years.

Is he a just a slick salesman or are you inclined to trust him?  I have to say I was impressed with Michael's knowledge and ability to articulate what he does.


Thursday, April 28, 2011

Energy from the Waves - Philip Kithil Explains

There are a lot of vendors at the   Business of Clean Energy in Alaska Conference.  Here's one, Philip Kithil of Atmocean, Inc., discussing  the wave technology his company is developing and which he thinks has great potential for small communities on the ocean.  He's planning to test it in Yakutat. 



Jerry Yudelson - "Evangelist for the Obvious" - Energy Conference

This is the lunch talk.  Let me disclose that my media pass for this conference includes lunch.  Margie Bauman of Alaska Newspapers, Inc. won't accept a free lunch.  But as 'just a blogger' my standards aren't that high.  But I'll let you know that I'm getting fed so you can decide for yourself if it's corrupting me.  And since I'm posting this as it's happening, please forgive the typos and lack of better organization.


Yudelson eating before talk



Technical stuff is relatively easy.  My energy now is focused on showing people why this is good business.

Here are the Takeaways:

1.  Global Warming is happening - Green building is important for controlling CO2 production
2.  Green design/development is here to stay
3.  Benefits are signicatnt for all building types
4.  Cost premium is down -  now 2% or lower for large green buildings - for all the benefits, is not a bad deal

What is a green building?
energy efficient
land use and materials
Works better for people
Tested and certified by independent 3rd party
Performance verification - next trend in green building

We have lots of green buildings that don't perform as they should.

Business Case
CBRE/U San Diego
55% said gained in productivity - just the gain of productivity offsets energy costs
45% said fewer sick days - pays back

US is growing - Europe isn't
We're going to rebuild most of our building stock - just by building we make a huge impact

Life cycle postive solutions
Only things where you reduce carbon is building efficiency investments

US Green Building Association is the fastest growing non-profit in the US.
28,000 LEED registered projects
7,000 LEED certified projects
155,000 LEED accredited professionals - way over the number of architects in US.  It means we've got the trained people.  Now need to sell it to business.

This green building is growing during worst building crisis in 30 years.

We need to attack existing buildings, because we only add about 1% of building stock a year.  Economy based on cars.  Not cars and drugs, not manufacturing (that's gone to China), but buildings.   Not just the low hanging fruit, it's the fruit on the floor.

Merchandising Mart - largest US building - and now Empire State Building is going through LEED  refitting.  Replacing all the windows - 100 a night.  You don't have to accept a bad building.  You can remanufacture and reinstall all the windows.  Empire State Building has a five year payback.  $4.4 million a year savings.

First Green Building in Massachusetts - tech company - turnover dropped 5% and that alone paid for the energy upgrade.  People like to be in good buildings.

Co-Star study:  Compared their LEED buildings to non-LEED - $11.33 sf premium and 4% occupancy premium.  And LEED buildings, even in the recession, had a rent and occupancy premium.   Alaska is different, but happening over the US and Europe.  It will happen here too.

Productivity - studies showing 3% increase of productivity in LEED buildings.  1% already pays for the investment.

Here's a bit of video:




Q&A:  Energy storage is big future issue.  California desert now used as military bombing site could be solar farm to energize the US.  And Europeans are looking at Northern Africa for solar.  Once off the coast "there's nothing there." [Well, they say the same about the arctic.  NOT TRUE.  They may well be able to use it reasonably, but there is stuff there that needs to be taken into consideration.]

I feel like an evangelist for the obvious.   [Yes, that's how I feel about all this - it's obvious.]