Wexley school for girls - Seattle

We were headed for a meeting with Seattle friends at Top Pot Donuts. On the way we passed the Wexley School for Girls.

What's wrong with this sign?

And this is the window to the school.

And here's a sign for deliveries.

And peeking into the front door, I took this picture of the foyer. None of this makes any sense. So when I got home I googled.

Their website took way too long to open on my computer. So I've given you the google search results. They need to figure out how to make their stuff load faster. But they certainly piqued my curiousity.

Land-Lines, Cell Phones, and Poll Bias

[Sept. 10 - I've updated this in a new post with actual study data on characteristics of cell-phone only households and links to a couple of studies on this.]

Tons of different things to write about, but I got this email just now and it is relevant to a question I'd had. My question was whether pollsters were calling cell phones. Could they get cell phone numbers? One theory about why pollsters called the Truman/Dewey election wrong in 1948 is that pollsters relied on telephones and people without phones were more likely to vote for Truman. That raises the question about modern-day polls. There aren't any directories I know of for cell phones, and many younger voters have cell phones and no land lines. If younger voters are more likely to vote Obama and older voters more likely to vote McCain, then calling land lines only would bias the polls.

From a discussion on Citydata.com

Most if not all polls use land line phones to conduct the poll. This eliminates many if not all of a major group of voters. McCain's voters tend to be older less mobile groups of people. They are more likely to have land line phones. Obama's supporters are more likely to be younger, many have only mobile phones, never even having land line.

More Americans go for cell phones, drop landlines


The percentage of people who do not land line phones.

25% ages 18 to 29, no landline.
12.4% ages 30 to 44, no landline.
6.1% ages 45 to 64, no landline.
1.9% ages over 65, no landline.
15.8% of all homes, no landline.
22.4% of poor, no land line

All this was stimulated by the email I got today: [see update below, this is apparently a hoax]


REMEMBER: Cell Phone Numbers Go Public today
REMINDER.... all cell phone numbers are being released to telemarketing companies tomorrow and you will start to receive sale calls.

.... YOU WILL BE CHARGED FOR THESE CALLS

To prevent this, call the following number from your cell phone:
888-382-1222.
It is the National DO NOT CALL list. It will only take a minute of your time. It blocks your number for five (5) years. You must call from the cell phone number you want to have blocked. You cannot call from a different phone number.

HELP OTHERS BY PASSING THIS ON TO ALL YOUR FRIENDS.. It takes about 20 seconds.
or go to www.donotcall.gov


This seems to confirm my belief that up til now there were no directories of cell phone numbers.

[Update: Sept. 3: After I posted this, I realized that I hadn't checked on the email, something I would normally do before posting something like this. And, sure enough, a reader has sent me the following email:

Hi,
I was alarmed to see on your blog that solicitors might start calling my and my children's cell phones and using up the minutes so I went and listed them with the do not call registry. But then immediately afterward I got suspicious and did a little web search and came up with this page from the FCC that says it is an urban myth that cell phone numbers will be published in a directory and that solicitors will begin calling cell phones. Federal law prohibits solicitors from calling cell phones, and the FCC says cell phone users do not need to register with the do not call registry. The page was last modified in late 2007, but I assume the law hasn't changed since then.
http://www.ftc.gov/opa/2005/04/dnc.shtm
Shana Cxxxxxxxxx

One clue is that there is no date - it just says 'today'. Shana, thanks for the heads up.]

President and Vice President Job Duties

There is a lot of discussion about whether Sarah Palin has the experience to be President. Many people seem to be reacting emotionally, based whether they want McCain or Obama to win. They aren't doing what most organizations do when they look at candidates for a job: review all the experience of the candidate against the duties of the job. Of course, Palin has been selected by McCain to be his vice presidential running mate. But for every vice presidential candidate, we must ask if she can also step in as President.

So I decided to look up the job duties of the President and Vice President in the US Constitution . Just looking at the Constitution (see the excerpts below) the President doesn't have all that much to do compared to the Legislature. The Vice President only presides over the Senate and votes when there's a tie.

Based on that Palin is certainly qualified to be Vice President. But so am I and most other Americans.

Oh yes, and there's the part about becoming President. What rereading the Constitution reminded me was how much the Presidents of late have essentially usurped the power of the Legislature. Our real focus should be on recalibrating the power balance between the executive and legislative branches.

I tried to pick out what the Constitution says about the President, Legislature, and Vice President, but I readily admit I may have missed some things. Here's what I did find:


What does the President do?

Article II: The Executive Branch
Section I
Clause 1:

The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America. He shall hold his Office during the Term of four Years, and, together with the Vice President, chosen for the same Term, be elected, as follows:

Clause 8:

Before he enter on the Execution of his Office, he shall take the following Oath or Affirmation:--"I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States."

Section 2

Clause 1:

The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States, and of the Militia of the several States, when called into the actual Service of the United States; he may require the Opinion, in writing, of the principal Officer in each of the executive Departments, upon any Subject relating to the Duties of their respective Offices, and he shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offences against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.

Clause 2:

He shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two thirds of the Senators present concur; and he shall nominate, and by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, shall appoint Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, Judges of the supreme Court, and all other Officers of the United States, whose Appointments are not herein otherwise provided for, and which shall be established by Law: but the Congress may by Law vest the Appointment of such inferior Officers, as they think proper, in the President alone, in the Courts of Law, or in the Heads of Departments.

Clause 3:

The President shall have Power to fill up all Vacancies that may happen during the Recess of the Senate, by granting Commissions which shall expire at the End of their next Session.

Section 3

He shall from time to time give to the Congress Information of the State of the Union, and recommend to their Consideration such Measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient; he may, on extraordinary Occasions, convene both Houses, or either of them, and in Case of Disagreement between them, with Respect to the Time of Adjournment, he may adjourn them to such Time as he shall think proper; he shall receive Ambassadors and other public Ministers; he shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed, and shall Commission all the Officers of the United States.

That doesn't look like too much. So who's supposed to do all the work? If we look at the Legislative section of the Constitution we see:

Article I: The Legislative Branch

Section 2:
Clause 6:

The Senate shall have the sole Power to try all Impeachments. When sitting for that Purpose, they shall be on Oath or Affirmation. When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no Person shall be convicted without the Concurrence of two thirds of the Members present.


Section 8

Clause 1:

The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;

Clause 2:

To borrow Money on the credit of the United States;

Clause 3:

To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes;

Clause 4:

To establish a uniform Rule of Naturalization, and uniform Laws on the subject of Bankruptcies throughout the United States;

Clause 5:

To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures;

Clause 6:

To provide for the Punishment of counterfeiting the Securities and current Coin of the United States;

Clause 7:

To establish Post Offices and post Roads;

Clause 8:

To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries;

Clause 9:

To constitute Tribunals inferior to the supreme Court;

Clause 10:

To define and punish Piracies and Felonies committed on the high Seas, and Offences against the Law of Nations;

Clause 11:

To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water;

Clause 12:

To raise and support Armies, but no Appropriation of Money to that Use shall be for a longer Term than two Years;

Clause 13:

To provide and maintain a Navy;

Clause 14:

To make Rules for the Government and Regulation of the land and naval Forces;

Clause 15:

To provide for calling forth the Militia to execute the Laws of the Union, suppress Insurrections and repel Invasions;

Clause 16:

To provide for organizing, arming, and disciplining, the Militia, and for governing such Part of them as may be employed in the Service of the United States, reserving to the States respectively, the Appointment of the Officers, and the Authority of training the Militia according to the discipline prescribed by Congress;

Clause 17:

To exercise exclusive Legislation in all Cases whatsoever, over such District (not exceeding ten Miles square) as may, by Cession of particular States, and the Acceptance of Congress, become the Seat of the Government of the United States, and to exercise like Authority over all Places purchased by the Consent of the Legislature of the State in which the Same shall be, for the Erection of Forts, Magazines, Arsenals, dock-Yards, and other needful Buildings;--And

Clause 18:

To make all Laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into Execution the foregoing Powers, and all other Powers vested by this Constitution in the Government of the United States, or in any Department or Officer thereof.

And while we're at it, we should look at the duties of the Vice President.

Section 1

Article I: The Legislative Branch

Clause 6:

In Case of the Removal of the President from Office, or of his Death, Resignation, or Inability to discharge the Powers and Duties of the said Office,10 the Same shall devolve on the Vice President,

Section 2:

Clause 4:

The Vice President of the United States shall be President of the Senate, but shall have no Vote, unless they be equally divided.

Driving Around Oregon

Our original plans for the day got scuttled. So we had breakfast in a logger pizza place.








And then wandered slowly toward the ocean. Past lots of little rivers.








It was sunny, with a steady breeze, in the low 60s F. (about 16C)



























I tried to do some homework on this slug. I don't think it's a banana slug, but I couldn't find a picture that would match this one. It's about three inches long.
















He just stood there looking as we went over a nearby bridge. It didn't really look deep enough to jump from that high. He was still there when we came back.

A Day in Portland

We had lunch with Masami and Shpresha and Sharon, people I knew when I was a guest faculty member at Portland State University for six months in 2003-4.




After lunch they put me in my old seminar room to work on a few things and catch up with all the hits coming in about Palin. Like other Alaska blogs, apparently, this was my second highest hit day - 563 right now.








Later we walked around downtown before meeting friends for dinner. The sky was very blue, temps in the low 70s, as we passed the Art Museum.































In a little park area between streets the Oregon Ballet Theatre was practicing in a tent.













A costume store.


























One of the great book shops in the United States. Powell's is room after room after room on several floors or used and new books. A favorite place of our when we lived here.








































































We had dinner here with Gary and Roxanne who we knew from Anchorage and from when we lived here. It was great to see them again.







We checked the tram station near Marty's yesterday. It's about a 20 minute walk home from the end of the line. But both ticket machines at the stop were broken. We turned down Gary and Roxanne's offer of a ride home (way out of their way) and decided to board without tickets. The guy with the beard told us to push the emergency button and tell the driver who said we could ride free then. Then the two Obama canvassers got on. As we were pulling into one station we heard screaming at the other end of the train (about four cars away.) The driver came onto the loudspeaker calling for police. Who boarded immediately as we entered into the station. A young black woman and a young white woman slipped quickly off the train. The police - Wackenhut Security guys - stayed on the train to the end of the line where we got off. At the end we heard the driver reporting the incident - a white guy had been yelling racial epithets at a white girl and black girl sitting together.

Palin's Speech Made Biden's Speech Look Lame

As an Alaskan, I couldn't help but feel good about our Governor's speech accepting the vice presidential nomination. Well, she's only been announced. The nomination comes next week. But she was pure Palin. For those who are wondering, this is real. She's poised, comfortable, and speaks honestly. It was a real contrast to the older man standing next to her with the shit-eating grin on his face.

Palin has become a strong, confident speaker. Her nomination and, even more, her speech will is going to totally change this election. The Republicans did a great job of pointing out all her best points.

The Obama people better be careful when they attack Palin. I'm in a household here in Portland that's got Fox News on. They reported that the Obama people said Palin was in the pocket of big oil. If that's their research, they're in big trouble. She is clearly NOT in the pocket of big oil. But, as I said, I'm getting my news from Fox, so I have no idea if the Obama people really said that.

I did notice that when McCain introduced her and said that she'd stood up to vested interests, he left the oil companies off his list. But Palin didn't leave them off her list. And that has been her biggest coup.

I would say from what we've seen in Alaska, Palin is honest, serious about doing what's right, takes on anyone who she thinks is wrong. And she took on the big oil companies and so far she's won. But the Monehan firing also reveals some lack of experience and lack of sense of the protocol. The video is the first few minutes of this morning's speech.



For another video of Palin, see her introducing a several day workshop for legislators and the public on AGIA (Alaska Gasline Inducement Act).

There will be lots of contradictions in this race. The McCain folks have been blasting Obama for lack of experience. It isn't just about being governor for 18 months, it's also her exposure to different ideas and different people. She spent time outside of Alaska when she went to the University of Idaho. Other than that, I suspect she's spent more time outside of Alaska as Governor than she did since she moved to Alaska as an infant. I don't that she's been outside the US besides Canada. These gaps should cause concern. But who knows what the glamor and the media can do?

Marty and Jake

Fox Says its Palin for McCain VP

Photo at induction of Rabbi Michael Oblath October 2007.









"ARE ANY OF THE ALASKANS UP? McCAIN PICKED PALIN" is what woke me up this morning, 15 minutes ago.


My mind is spinning. Sure, we've heard her name was in the ring for VP, but it all seemed so far fetched.

The first time I saw her was a small group of people at the University of Alaska Anchorage when she was just starting to run for governor. Her hair was piled up on her head, she was in scuffed snow boots. She spoke openly and directly. A real person, not a politician. I liked her, but thought she was in way over her head. She said she didn't know to a number of things and even asked if the audience had suggestions. I knew at the time that she'd stood up the Randy Ruedrich, the Republican Party Chair of Alaska, and resigned from the Alaska Oil and Gas Commission very publicly saying it was because Ruedrich had a conflict of interest and she couldn't continue to serve. That was pretty gutsy.

Then, to many people's surprise, she actually beat sitting Republican Governor Murkowski in the primary. Well, by the time of the election, I think we'd all seen the polls so we weren't that surprised. But when she started to run it was a real long shot. The party stalwarts were all against her. She certainly was helped out when it came out the FBI had searched the offices of several prominent Republican officials.

As governor, as I've said in previous posts, she was the right person at the right time. She stood up to the oil companies on the Petroleum Profits Tax (also known as Petroleum Production Tax) and got it raised. Then she stood up to the big oil companies over AGIA (Alaska Gasline Inducement Act). After the previous governor had negotiated privately with Conoco-Phillips and BP to build a natural gas pipeline to the Lower 48. She had reinstated the commissioner of Natural Resources who'd resigned because of how Murkowski was negotiating. They set up conditions the State insisted on and put out a Request for Proposal requiring them. The big oil companies didn't turn in any proposals. But an pipeline company from Canada did. Then the oil companies put in a proposal after the deadline, which didn't meet the state requirements. Palin was able to get the legislature, in special sessions over the summer, to approve Trans Canada's bid to get a license.

Meanwhile she's been on the cover of Vogue magazine and did other such national publicity work. Her biography came out and the book was simply a PR job on the sweet but strong willed girl who grew up in Wasilla. I found it hard to stomach. This was not a serious book.

And now we're seeing some of the inexperience coming to the surface in the way she handled the firing of the head of the State Troopers. It has come out that her staff and family have been pressuring him to fire one of the troopers - who just happens to be her ex-brother-in-law.

This is a woman with a lot of internal strength. She also has very limited experience outside of Alaska and in public office. She was mayor of a town of about 74,000. She's been governor almost two years. She's floated on a bubble of strong moves against the oil companies, supported by the FBI's investigation into oil related corruption in Alaska and three ex-legislators convicted and a number of other people indicted and/or pleading guilty. Her physical beauty has certainly been a major attention getter - she's been called the hottest governor in the USA. She has a son serving in the Middle East and a newborn child with Down's Syndrome. When he was born in April, she said she had her family to take care of and was not a candidate for Vice President.

I think this is a woman with a lot of smarts and strengths. But she also has had probably the least experience of any Vice Presidential candidate in my lifetime. If, in ten years, she proved her mettle, I'd say she'd be a long shot candidate. She'd have been through the rough and tumble. Right now, she's only had amazing successes. The Monehan firing has been the only bump. She isn't used to failure.

But the US and Republican image machines can make a lot of this woman and they will. I'd like to say she could surprise us. But I have to say she also has a huge amount to learn. She hasn't been tested in the rough and tumble of national politics or even the primaries.

No one can say American presidential politics is dull.

Martini Glasses Then and Now

Marty has been educating us on a lot of things. I finally caught one important then-and-now history lesson on video.

Alaska Dominates Menu

Went to a Seafood place tonight in Portland.