Dan Bern, My Favorite Songwriter/Singer, Packs Out North Friday Night

As I've said in previous posts this week, I first experienced Dan Bern performing in 1997 at Loussac library.  He blew me away. 

He carries on the tradition of Gutherie and Dylan's songs that commented on the state of the world.  Long narratives in a singing style that . . . well the first time I heard him, he came out and sang, then stopped, and said something like, "Some people say I sound like Dylan . . . but  you don't do you?" with a big grin on his face.

What struck me then was how his songs started with  unexpected premises and then wandered through a stream of conscious jumping from topic to topic, all the while telling the story.  Not unlike some of my blog posts.   "If Marilyn Monroe had married Henry Miller" for example.  These are sophisticated musical musings that are funny, thought provoking and musically seductive.  Sure, everyone knows who Marilyn Monroe is, but you also have to know who Henry Miller was and that Marilyn Monroe was married for a while to Arthur Miller (and who he was).

The Wasteland, one of my favorites from early on, wraps up the dilemmas of an age in evocative words and music that starkly express the darker side of American dream.  It starts:

Wasteland

Sound Clip

I saw the best of my generation playing pinball
Make-up on, all caked up 
Looking like some kind of china doll
With all of Adolf Hitler's moves down cold
As they stood up in front 
Of a rock and roll band
And always moving upward and ever upward
To this gentle golden promised land
With the smartest of them all 
Moonlighting as a word processor
And the strongest of them all 
Checking IDs outside a saloon
And the prettiest of all 
Taking off her clothes
In front of men 
Whose eyes look like they were in some little hick town 
Near Omaha 
Watching the police chief 
Run his car off the side of a bridge

 

He just tells the story and let's the audience work out what it means.

He also has a lot of baseball songs - including one about Pete Rose, the Hall of Fame, and betting, and another one I heard the first time Friday on Armando Gallarraga's perfect game stolen by umpire Jim Joyce's bad call on what should have been the last out.  Another on the golden voice of Vin Scully. 


 These photos were taken at Friday night's concert.  The purple shirt was before the break. 

Patrick McCormick stood in for his Dad Mike, the founder of Whistling Song productions which has been bringing up folkish musicians to Anchorage for a long time.  Mike's knowledge of music and hospitality has been the main reason we've had so many good musicians playing here.  Many, like Dan, have stayed at the McCormick's house when they were here.  Dan's talked about it being a wonderful change from most tour stops, being able to stay with a family.  And he's watched Patric grow up over the years he's been coming to Anchorage.   Patrick told a story about Dan coming to one of his basketball games when he was in the third grade. 

Having spent a good part of the week at the songwriting workshop and two concerts, I've got lots more to write and not enough time.  Rather than write one long, long post that won't get up til Wednesday or Thursday, let me stop here and I'll add more later.

Now That Olympics Are Over, What Do Romney's Olympic Predictions Tell Us?

On the eve of the Olympics in London, as everyone knows, Mitt Romney, when asked his thoughts, told the Prime Minister that he had concerns about London's readiness.  Now that the Olympics are over, and were very successful if the press can be believed,  it seems appropriate to consider what this might reveal about the candidate.

1.  Social Graces

Romney clearly has trouble with his sense of appropriateness in interpersonal relationships.  He appears to be much more task oriented (thinking about the games) and lacking in his people orientation (not understanding this was like asking "how are you? or that as a guest you should say positive things when you first meet, not criticize.)

Asked a ritualistic question about the Olympics, which any guest should know is supposed to be answered politely and positively  - "Oh, it looks to be a great Olympics!" he took the question literally, and gave an negative assessment.

This insensitivity to non-verbal communication, to social customs, is a serious problem for a president.  Much of the job is to ceremonially represent the United States.  Much of the job requires the ability to assess the character, sincerity, and capacity of people advising you as well as inspiring their confidence in you.  This is hard to do when you are tone deaf to social signals.
 

2.  Assessment Skills

The lack of social skills is problematic.  For some people, this is made up in other skills.  But Romney, someone who has worked on a previous Olympics, was wrong in his assessment of the London Olympics.  The Olympics went well and there was no security breach, something he specifically noted as a concern.  So his assessment on a topic he is a reputed expert on, was wrong.  I must acknowledge that we don't know if there were no terrorist issues because of how good the security was or simply because no one attempted to disrupt the Olympics.  But ultimately, his assessment - inappropriate as it was to share at that moment - was wrong.

Some might argue shouldn't jump to conclusions here.  Was this something he had studied or was he just reflecting the media accounts?  But what we do know is that his inability to read the human aspect of the situation, led him to think that his opinion was being seriously sought.  And, again, due to his lack of sensitivity to basic etiquette, instead of praising his host's efforts, he criticized them, implying that there were likely to be problems - a prediction of sorts.  A prediction he never had to make.  One that now turns out to be wrong. 

If he was wrong about the odds of a successful Olympics, what does that tell us about his assessments of things like the economic crisis, health care, tax policy, etc.?

In terms of the social problems, this is just one more in a long series of such incidents.  In terms of his assessment of the Olympics this doesn't tell us too much, but we learn about people by adding up bits of information over time.  So I'm just taking notes that can be compared to his other pronouncements. (We could, say, add this to what we know about someone who set up a health care  plan as a governor that is remarkably similar to Obama's national plan that Romney tells us is terrible.) 

But I think this episode tells us, at least, this much:

• His sense of appropriate behavior and etiquette are out of synch with most folks
• He takes things literally, missing the social meaning
• His first response was to point out the potential negatives
• He was wrong 

[As I reread this, I realize that it sounds like I'm pussy-footing around here, treating Romney way too gingerly.  My rationale is that much of the debate going on over the presidential candidates has been about things which are difficult for the average no-too-involved observer to assess.  But this Olympics incident, thought not big, is something where we can look at the facts and come to a pretty clear conclusion that most people can understand easily.]

___ Is To Alaska What Football Is To Penn State

This is just a little thought experiment.  I’m going to try to keep the analogy simple.  [I didn't succeed.  Life is complicated and so many things are interrelated.  But the basic analogy you can read quickly.]


Fill in the blank:

___ is to Alaska  what football is to  Penn State.

 I'm sure every Alaskan reader would immediately say "thoughtfulness."  No?  How about that black gooey stuff?

When things go wrong, the very least we can do is learn something from them so that when the elements return in a different disguise, we can recognize them.  What then are the key elements of these two stories?

The Penn State

1.  A sacred cow - At Penn State, football served the function of uniting everyone in spirit and (at least people believe) generated a lot of money, which was translated into enhanced programs and lots of jobs on campus for people in the surrounding community.    Certainly the hotels and bars and restaurants benefited from crowds coming to home football games, and buying Penn State paraphernalia. The  university benefited from the television money the highly ranked football team brought in.  
Challenging the sacred cow in any way 1) is disloyal to the Penn State spirit and 2) threatens a lot of people’s income. 
This results in relatively little scrutiny because 1) everyone wants to believe in the goodness of football and 2) those benefiting don’t want to threaten those benefits.  The rule of a sacred cow is that no one should raise embarrassing questions.  So people self-censor, knowing that any criticism will bring on quick retaliation.

2.  Big fish in a  small pond.  Penn State is located in a relatively small city where its and football's influence is much bigger than it would be in a larger city.  A challenge from inside is unlikely.

3.  An aging hero with long incumbency- Joe Paterno's 45 year career made him the longest serving head coach in US college football.  Born in 1926, Paterno became Penn State’s assistant football coach in 1950, and the head coach in 1966.  Dan Rorabaugh at US News wrote a line that appears repeatedly online:  “Joe Paterno is Penn State.” Paterno did a lot of good.  In addition to winning, Paterno's team regularly had high graduation rates.  In 2011 his dynasty ended when it was disclosed that he knew that his trusted, long-term assistant coach and friend, had been sexually molesting young boys in Penn State related programs for many years.   Paterno died shortly after that. 


4.  A  spoiler:  A good friend of the hero who turns out to have some serious problems - For whatever reasons, personal loyalty, protecting the sanctity of PSU football, disbelief, Paterno turned a blind eye to Jerry Sandusky's crimes.  More than a blind eye, according to the Freeh Report.  The hero, it turns out, knew and blocked attempts to do something about it.



The Alaskan Story

1.  The Alaska sacred cow has to be oil.  And probably to an even greater extent than football at Penn State.   Close to 90% of the state revenue comes from oil.  Every community has projects that were built on oil money.  Every citizen is eligible for a permanent fund check. 

2.  Oil is a whale in a small pond up in Alaska. 

3.  An aging hero with long incumbency -   There is no hero as closely linked to oil as Paterno was linked to football.  The Alaskan most similar to Paterno was Senator Ted Stevens.  Senator Lisa Murkowski said at Stevens’ memorial "Ted was Alaska – he just was Alaska.”  He was born in 1923 and was appointed to the US Senate in 1968. Seeing any patterns?

When he left, he was the longest serving Republican in Senate history. In 2008 a good friend and political ally from the oil industry testified against  Stevens in court.  Stevens was convicted and lost his reelection bid months later. (The charges were later vacated by Obama’s incoming Attorney General because of prosecutorial misconduct.)  Stevens died in a plane crash two years later.

4.  A spoiler:  A good friend of the hero who turns out to have some serious problems.  Bill Allen, a high school dropout  who became a powerful political king-maker as the head of his billion dollar oil support company VECO, became a witness for the Department of Justice against a number of Alaskan politicians including Ted Stevens.  Aside for political corruption on behalf of the oil industry, Allen is alleged to have had an affair with an underage young woman. 



In the Penn State case, the Pennsylvania Attorney General's office came into the small Pennsylvania town where the University is located to prosecute Jerry Sandusky.  Penn State University accepted Joe Paterno's early retirement.  A University commissioned report by former FBI Director Louis Freeh harshly condemned a number of Penn State officials.  Paterno and three other key officials "are portrayed as manipulating administrative channels to protect Sandusky, the football program and their own reputations."  [If Alaska is a model, Pennsylvanians should watch for the rehabilitation of Joe Paterno in the not too distant future.]

In Alaska, the FBI began a covert operation which video taped Bill Allen's hotel suite in Juneau as he entertained legislators and made deals with them trying to prevent tax changes that were not approved of by the oil companies.  Allen cooperated with the Justice Department and was a witness in a number of court cases where state legislators were convicted of various corruption charges.  He also was the key witness in the Stevens trial in DC, where Stevens was convicted as well.  Stevens lost his reelection bid shortly after, narrowly.   However, Obama's attorney general vacated Stevens' conviction because of prosecutorial misconduct.


In the meantime, a former oil company lobbyist is now the governor of Alaska.  And few see any problem with this. Can you imagine the outcry if the former lobbyist for Green Peace or Wilderness Society were governor?  Although the oil companies have been tarnished, their interests are still in power and they are spending money to maintain their sacred status,  aided in the upcoming election by the Citizens United decision. 

Oil plays an important role in the world.  Oil has brought Alaska wealth and benefits we could not have had otherwise.  But any faction that gains so much power and influence in any society or institution, begins eventually to feel entitled and gets harder and harder to keep accountable. 

The stifling of sacred cow challengers shows up in lots of places. 

• Why weren’t people asking more questions about the home loan industry?  Or listening to those who did?  
• Why didn’t parents believe their kids who said the priest molested them, of if the kids remained silent, why didn’t they question the kids’ different behavior?  
• Why has it taken so long for the military to address the many psychological problems of soldiers returning from Iraq and Afghanistan?  Or take seriously the complaints of sexual harassment and assault by women in the military?  
• Why do we continue to spend billions on the so called War on Drugs when it clearly is so ineffective? 

All of these issues involve sacred cows that people want to believe in and people resist those who challenge those beliefs.  They all involve people who benefited from silencing and marginalizing those who challenged the system.  All of them have wealthy interests funding misinformation campaigns to convince the public and the decision makers that there is no problem. 

This is nothing new in human history.  Ruling classes have brainwashed their subjects from the beginning.  Americans think they are different, yet large numbers of our populaltion succumb to empty slogans, and to appeals to their fears and insecurities. 

I think about Egyptians and Libyans and Russians and Syrians who see through their government’s lies and risk their lives to change things.  Americans are willing to sacrifice the lives and mental health of the relatively few Americans who serve in the military, but what are they personally willing to sacrifice? 

It turns out that not staying alert has cost people their homes, their savings, and their jobs.  It wasn't a voluntary sacrifice.  Rather,  enough people voted for those false slogans and put people into power whose faith in unbridled capitalism allowed bankers and traders to make fortunes on what turned out to be giant swindles.

We get another turn at bat in November.   The propagandists are already spinning their lies and spreading hate and fear to convince voters to forget the size of the catastrophe that Obama inherited and instead blame him for the fallout of the Bush2 administration. 

----------
While I was looking for a link to support a point I'd made, I found that Cliff Groh had already made the Paterno-Stevens comparison in November 2011.

"Romney retroactively cancels visit to London" and other tweets about the Republican Candidate

I don't have a Twitter account, but I saw at Immoral Minority that Mitt Romney had done so badly on his first day in London that someone started a new Twitter RomneyShambles hash tag.  Here are just a few of the tweets about England's response to Mitt.

  Danielle Blake ‏@DCPlod

Mitt Romney retroactively cancels visit to London. #RomneyShambles

  Jon Berry ‏@jonberrydesign

"The trip was meant to make him look presidential... it made him look like Mr. Bean." http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/26/mitt-romney-london-olympics-gaffe-live?newsfeed=true #London2012 #Romneyshambles

  The Daily Edge ‏@TheDailyEdge

You can tell @MittRomney's doing badly when he starts getting booed by rich white people #RomneyShambles #AmericanBorat

  Matt Ortega ‏@MattOrtega

Mitt Romney is now, officially, an international embarrassment. Our policy of containment has failed. #RomneyShambles

VANITY FAIR ‏@VanityFair

Romney couldn't possibly offend England right before the #Olympics. Oh, he did http://vnty.fr/N5XbUx #RomneyShambles

Barracks O'Bama ‏@P0TUS

RT @brx0: Next up: Driving around London with the queen's corgis on the roof. #RomneyShambles

  Adam Gabbatt ‏@AdamGabbatt

I've rounded up Romney's gaffes, all in one place. It's been quite a day http://bit.ly/N0bCuj #romneyshambles

  P M ‏@Pawelmorski

Americans: This Mitt person is some sort of American Borat, right? #romneyshambles

  Eileen Sarett-Cuasay ‏@leenie909

Dear Great Britain: Yeah. We know. Sorry. Welcome to our world. --Signed, America.

This is not my usual style of post, but then you don't want me to be predictable do you?

[UPDATE July 27:  While Romneyshambles might be cute for Americans, it appears for people in the UK it has a special ring.  The term omnishambles is already in use in the UK.  The R gives an already good word even more spin.  From an article called "The Omnishambles and the Power of Political Language" in the Daily Telegraph:

"Omnishambles is a hybrid too, and the words “shambles” has come to mean simply a mess or muddle, and has more or less lost its more vivid meaning of a fleshmarket, slaughterhouse, or place of carnage. But omnishambles is OK. It says neatly what most of us think of most governments. The only wonder is that Ed Miliband dares to use it, thus inviting the suggestion that he should look in the mirror."   (There's more at the link.)]

What City Has More Than A Dozen Bagpipe Factories?

People are constantly saying they'd like to hear some positive news instead of the constant din of negative stories.  But it also seems most people really read the appalling and shocking stories more than the feel good stories.

Here's a bit of news that came via email from a friend.  It's a bit unexpected.  The city of Sialkot, Pakistan is one of the world's biggest exporters of bagpipes.  From CNN:

Sialkot is located in north-east Pakistan, some 125 kilometers from the capital Lahore. Legend has it that the city started making bagpipes during the British Raj, when a Scottish businessman came to town and set up a factory.
More than a century later Sialkot is one of the world’s biggest manufacturers of bagpipes, with more than a dozen bagpipe factories, both big and small. 

The video shows a different side of Pakistan than we normally see.




It seems they also make vintage footballs and basketballs, new soccer balls, musical instruments, and  and even replica US Civil War uniforms. 

Urine, MVP, Science, Protocol, Testosterone and How We Know Truth - Part 2 (Or "The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt")

We can read the newspapers (watch tv) and take each new story as an isolated story and then go on to the next.  Or we can take each story and try to figure out how this story adds to everything else we already know and whether it tends to confirm or raise doubts for our beliefs.  But we have to be careful that those beliefs don't cause us to accept the facts that support what we believe and to reject those that don't.  Extricating 'the truth' is rarely easy.  That reality helps liars greatly.

This story about Ryan Braun's positive drug test and subsequent overturning of the results on appeal offers us potential lessons for a lot more than just other stories about drugs.

It also offers us lessons for evaluating politicians and car salespeople.  And friends.

And it also provides lessons for the whole endeavor of figuring out 'the truth' in general, or even pondering what 'the truth' even means.

I offered six basic points that don't seem to be in dispute in the previous post.

The drug test said his testosterone level was higher than any other baseball player tested, ever.

He denies taking drugs, claiming something went wrong with the testing.  And the appeal board agreed that the delay in sending in the sample for testing violated protocol and his 50 game suspension was overturned.

The New York Times had a long article which goes into details about the testing process.

In a statement issued on Tuesday, Laurenzi [the tester] denied tampering with Braun’s urine sample and said that he acted professionally when he took the sample home for the weekend instead of sending it immediately to a laboratory.

“I followed the same procedure in collecting Mr. Braun’s sample as I did in the hundreds of other samples I collected under the program,” Laurenzi said. “At no point did I tamper in any way with the samples.”

Laurenzi also said that in taking Braun’s sample, along with those of two other players, to his home for safekeeping, he was again following standard procedure. That procedure was in place because it had been determined that it was better to keep the samples in a secure location rather than leave them in a FedEx office where they could have been tampered with or not properly stored.

“The protocol has been in place since 2005 when I started with CDT and there have been other occasions when I have had to store samples in my home for at least one day, all without incident,” Laurenzi said.

Many collections are done at night because that is when most games are played, although when Laurenzi collected Braun’s sample on Oct. 1, a playoff game between the Brewers and the Diamondbacks began just after 1 p.m. Laurenzi said he completed his collections at Miller Park in Milwaukee at about 5 p.m., which is also the deadline for giving FedEx shipments to stores in the Milwaukee area that could be flown out that night.

  Laurenzi said that after arriving home, he put the samples in a Rubbermaid container in his basement office that, he said, “is sufficiently cool to store urine samples.” No one other than his wife had access to the samples during that time. All three samples were kept in the same sealed, tamper-proof package.

Braun has never asserted, either in his case before the arbitrator or in his news conference last Friday, that the samples tested in a lab in Montreal bore any evidence of having been compromised. One person with knowledge of the Braun case said a union representative on Braun’s behalf was present in Montreal for a critical moment in the testing process, and never raised any concerns about the sample.

Kent Covington at Braveswire - what appears to be an Atlanta Braves website - lists pros and cons for believing Braun and adds information I haven't seen elsewhere:

Beyond the sincere tone, Braun made a compelling case for his innocence. Here are the key points of that case:
1)  He was 27 years old, entering the prime years of his career with a long-term guaranteed contract, and even if he were inclined to use PED’s, he would not have had sufficient motivation to take such a risk.
2) Braun had passed 24 prior drug tests, including multiple tests during the 2011 season.
3) The fact that MLB said his testosterone levels were three times greater than any other test result since testing began made those results far less believable.
I must say, this is a persuasive point. Of all the juicers MLB has tested in recent years, with hundreds of positive results… Ryan Braun’s testosterone levels were THREE TIMES higher than anyone they had ever tested? That is a bit hard to believe. Especially given the following point.
4)  He did not gain muscle mass, a single pound of weight or so much as a tenth of a second on his run time on the basepaths (which is routinely measured and documented by team officials) between his last negative test and the test in question.
Another compelling point.
5) There was an improper 44 hour delay in the delivery of the sample to a FedEx drop-off location. Braun suggested this was a window of time in which someone could have tampered with the sample.
From a legal standpoint, this is likely the argument that resulted in the dismissal of MLB’s case against him. This part of Braun’s argument will be less compelling to fans, however, most of whom remember OJ Simpson getting away with murder (figuratively speaking, of course) based on a technicality.
Overall, Braun was convincing and believable in his self defense.

Then again… a compelling case can be made on MLB’s behalf as well:
1) The league certainly has zero motivation to falsely accuse one of its MVP superstars–with a squeaky clean image–of being a juicer.
2) The sample in question was triple-sealed and its packaging showed no signs of tampering.
3) Perhaps the reason why Braun had not gained any weight or apparent performance advantage was that he had just started using PED’s when the test was administered. This is also the simple counterpoint to all of Braun’s prior clean tests.
When all is said and done, I believe we all have an ethical responsibility to assume Braun’s innocence. The 44-hour delay in the delivery of the sample is more than a small technicality. It is unlikely that anyone would have had both motive and opportunity to fabricate Braun’s positive results or that an egregious error could have been responsible for a false positive. But “unlikely” is a long way from impossible.

Covington adds several interesting pieces of information

• 24 previous tests with no positive results,
• three times higher than any other test
• no noticeable muscle mass or weight gain 

So, if he had 24 other negative tests, does that mean that this is the first time he's taken something, or just that he took things now and then and was lucky he wasn't tested.  Can a random fix give you power for a day? 

Nowhere have I seen the actual testosterone levels.

A report at medicinenet says  the average testosterone level for men is in the range of 270 to 1,070 nanograms per deciliter. (This report also talks about the effects - both positive and negative of heightened testosterone levels in men.)

USDoctor has a long post on the many ways to enhance testosterone and benefits and problems of each and how long they last, though it doesn't get into detection of drugs.

So while many, myself included, tend to lean toward assuming Braun probably feels that he can just deny in the face of it being difficult to prove he took something, there are some other possibilities that I haven't found discussed that could be out there.

1.  Someone put something into his food.  According to the USdoctor site,

"Oral testosterone may dramatically raise the testosterone level, only to have it drop a few hours later."

This would be consistent with the very high level and subsequent negative test. But then again, he could have done this himself.  It would have made it easier to evade detection in the earlier tests. 

2.  There also could be problems with the testing equipment or the person reading the test.  There is no evidence provided for this and usually such equipment is calibrated regularly.  I don't know what procedures there are to document all this and how reliable they are. 


What truths even exist and how can they be known?

Facts are things that potentially can be proven true or false.  Here are some key ones from this story:

• Braun either did or didn't have higher testosterone levels
• Braun did something or not to cause this
• Someone else did something or not to cause this
• There was tampering or not of the sample
• The sample was unintentionally or not contaminated
• The testing equipment was or was not functioning properly

Is Braun telling the truth?

• He could be knowingly lying
• He could be deluding himself into believing
• he did something but it was ok to do it
• what he took was legal
• since everyone else does it, it's ok
• he really has lost connection with reality on this and  believes he did nothing

There are a lot of ways one could push this story along.  Why do we even care if sports figures take drugs?  Why are records important?  Why are we spending time on this story (and others like it) instead of reading more about Iranian and US relations and whether Iran is truly a threat or whether this is another push by war profiteers to get us into another war? 

Or we could pursue the whole idea of truth and how we prove it and why it's important.  But this is only a blog post and I have other things to do today.  I only have enough time to raise questions, not answer them.

What is it about humans that we find ambiguity and uncertainty so troubling?  Brainy Quotes credits Bertrand Russell with this thought:

The demand for certainty is one which is natural to man, but is nevertheless an intellectual vice.

And they also credit Russell with this:

The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.

Experience is a good thing.  But it's better if one learns from experience.  This is just a story about a ball player whose drug test came out positive.  For some, it's just another interesting story to be pulled out and laughed over.  For others, it's one more piece of the giant puzzle that helps us understand life. 

Urine, MVP, Science, Protocol, Testosterone, and How We Know Truth - Part 1

Here's the basic story:

1.  Ryan Braun was voted Most Valuable Player in the National League last year
2.  "Braun's positive test for testosterone showed a level that was extremely elevated, and likely the highest that has been recorded in Major League Baseball"[Sports Illustrated]

3.  Braun denies he did anything wrong and alleges that something happened to the sample.

4.  "Under baseball's drug policy, Braun was to be suspended for the first 50 games of this season." [LA Times]

5.  "A three-person appeals panel overturned the findings — a first in baseball."[LA Times]

6.  The basis for the appeals ruling was that the urine sample spent the weekend at the home of the tester instead of being shipped immediately by Fed Express to be tested.

After checking various accounts online, I'm pretty sure that the above six points are not disputed among the parties.

Somewhere in the literature of brainstorming there's a discussion of the kinds of ideas people come up with.  Some folks go into great depth around one or two options.  Other people have much more breadth - they come up with a wide variety of possible explanations.

The original article I read (the LA Times opinion piece) seemed to see this as either/or - either Braun is lying or the sample was tainted, and the writer didn't put much stock in the tainted option.

This blog's underlying theme is 'how do we know what we know?' 

What's your first reaction?  Is Braun guilty or a victim?  Or is this even the right question?

Then, before going deeper into this case, I'd like to ask readers to do some brainstorming and to come up with as many different stories as you can that plausibly incorporate the six 'facts' outlined above.  I'm interested in breadth here - the variety of different possibilities.  Are there stories that exonerate both Braun and the testers?  What further information would you need to know to test your stories?

I know you have lots to do today and some of you don't want to embarrass yourselves.  But you can be anonymous - but sign the comment with some identifier just to keep the Anons identifiable.  

Half Moon Bay Dog Sitting

The invisible web of interpersonal relationships led us to the beach in Half Moon Bay Saturday night to walk the dog of a friend of my son's who was out of town for the holiday weekend.  We spent the night with Juke Box and walked him again the next morning.  My son had lived here for a while and there were lots of favors traded back and forth, such as watching out for each other's dogs and other affairs.

"Historical records show that the Native American culture of the Ohlone lived in harmony with nature for many thousand years, the human population being limited by the availability of food. The way of life changed during the 18th century when the Spanish arrived on the San Mateo coast, in the search for Monterey Bay, the Spanish started the Portola expedition where they had spent two days resting near what is now the town of Half Moon Bay. They stopped here once again on their return trip and named the area the plain of "Los Ansares" or the plain of wild geese. WIth the founding of Mission Dolores (Mission San Francisco de Asís) in 1776, the San Mateo coast area came into use for grazing of mission livestock. Following secularization of the missions, in 1834 eight ranchos were granted along this section of the coast. Cattle ranching was primary agricultural activity, and San Mateo's hide and tallow trade thrived. The beach at Half Moon Bay was a gathering spot for trading and socializing between rancheros, sea captain and other visitors.

The first Americans arrived in this area in the 1850s. The Mexican settlement known as Spanishtown, a commercial center for the rancheros, was called "Halfmoon" by these Anglos; the bay itself was named "Halfmoon" due to its shape. In 1867 the local post office was identified as "Halfmoon Bay", and the spelling was changed to Half Moon Bay in 1905. Agriculture was big in Half Moon Bay at the turn of the 20th century and farm produce such as brussels sprouts, artichokes, and mushrooms along with dairy products presented quite a transportation problem. The Ocean Shore railroad was incorporated in 1905 and was serving Half Moon Bay by 1908 the tracks were laid over what is now much of Francis Beach. During the 1920s the gentle beaches of Half Moon Bay were ideally suited for the needs of the bootlegger. Rum Ships cruised off shore, unloading millions of dollars worth of illegal booze across Half Moon Bay where Francis Beach was a perfect spot for unloading the cargo. During World War II an army post was set up at the beach to protect from Japanese invasion and bombing raids, further north bunkers and long range cannons were built to support the coastline." [Wikipedia]

"Ice plant (Carpobrotus edulis) is a succulent native to South Africa, but common in chaparral habitats around the world. Though it was once grown in California, Australia, the Mediterranean, and similar areas as a decorative plant, it has become an invasive species and a threat to native vegetation. Ice plant is hardy and quick to reproduce, easily growing into a thick ground cover that chokes out other plant life and depletes soil nutrients. The only reliable way to control ice plant is to uproot it physically."[Wisegeek]

"In Japan, the mustard flower is celebrated as a simple symbol of the beginning of spring. It is also planted in the fields of Yokohama and crafted into large mazes. In the United States, mustard blossoms often grow wild. One piece of historic trivia indicates that this is due to Spanish soldiers marking their trail throughout the country by scattering the seeds of this particular flower. In Napa Valley a similar story is told of missionaries creating a trail of seeds between Missions so that when the winter ended and the mustard flower began to bloom, they could trace their way back to where they came from. Despite their interesting appearance and fascinating history, mustard flowers are, of course, best known for its edible qualities. In Roman times, mustard flowers were considered an aphrodisiac, and were frequently mixed into love potions. Today, however, the seeds of this flower are mostly crushed and mixed with vinegar to create the spicy, fragrant condiment used in a variety of dishes."[from FlowerInfo]

  These two hammerheads were really sand sharks someone created on the beach. 

"There are eight different species of Hammerhead shark. All the species have the remarkable projections on both sides of the head, which probably is they reason why these sharks can detect electronic signals of no more than half a billionth of a volt. The head is probably used during electrolocation. By separating the receptors, the Hammerhead shark can receive signals in stereo. The oddly shaped head also seem to act as a wing that the Hammerhead shark uses for close-quarters maneuverability. The head looks somewhat like a flattened hammer, which is the reason behind the name of the Hammerhead shark. The nostrils and eyes are located at the tip of the extensions. All Hammerhead shark species have proportionately small mouths. The size of the eight different Hammerhead sharks varies between 2 and 6 metres. The largest Hammerhead species, the Great Hammerhead shark, will typically weigh around 230 kg (500 pounds) but can reach a weight of 450 kg (1,000 pounds). Three Hammerhead species can be dangerous to humans: the Great Hammerhead shark, the Scalloped Hammerhead shark and the Smooth Hammerhead sharks."[from Aquatic Community]

 As we walked the trail and beach, all we heard were birds and surf.  And then we headed into town for a busy afternoon seeing old friends. 

Enjoying Venice Beach

I could watch the guys (that's all I saw today) at the Venice Skateboard Plaza all day, but it was breezy today so we went over to board walk to mingle with the flow of tourists and locals.




I ran down to the beach yesterday morning hoping to see some of the big waves that were predicted.  They were bigger and rougher than normal, but not huge.  Maybe 5 or 6 feet.





This fisherman was all decked out in what liked new gear.  As I left this spot to see the surfers better, I tried to talk to him, but it appeared he didn't speak English.

The pelicans were patrolling the beach side of the waves too. 


I watched the surfers for a while and got some video that was more surf than surfers.  So I decided to switch back to still.

How I wish I'd kept the video on. This guy zigged and zagged at the front of the crest from left to right and then just a bit after this shot the wave curled over him. He came out after that ride. He wasn't going to get anything better than that. He told me when he was in the curl he got a bit concerned because he didn't know how deep it w

We biked back this afternoon, but there was a pretty stiff breeze. Plenty of folks were taking advantage of it.

I only saw this guy with the surfboard walking the kite along the beach.  Didn't see him with it in the water.

For this picture, I took the camera off manual and used the built in beach setting.

And on this one I photo-shopped in a close-up of the sand.  This is looking north to the Santa Monica mountains. 

Then we biked over to the skate board plaza. This guy was really good, but I didn't catch him in the air.  I'm assuming not too many people bang their heads or they'd start requiring helmets.  Most (like the guy in the first picture above) weren't wearing them.

Then we joined the crowd on the Venice boardwalk.  This is a wall above the shops along the boardwalk. 

And if you need more than oxygen . . .

The doctor was in here.  Or at least this man in a white lab coat.

  Ice cream will do for this guy.

Wall Street Journal Circulation Scam - Will Anyone Really Care?

Robbery, rape, murder are all easy to understand.  Someone uses violence or the threat of violence to take someone's money, body, or life.  Proving who did it may not be easy, but the concepts can be grasped by most anyone.  It's easy to report and for readers to grasp.

Fraud, on the other hand, if done cleverly, requires a lot more work to detect.  The victim may be unaware, so no one is even reporting a problem.  Think of Enron.  While pulling off the US's then largest fraud ever, they were repeatedly named Company of the Year by top business journals.

How were average citizens supposed to know what was happening if 'freedom's watch dogs' were so enamored?  And everyone knows how hard it is to turn the banking ripoff into evening news sound bites.  While more people are getting the point that the rich guys got richer while the average guy got poorer, I'd bet most people couldn't explain how it all worked.  Or understand that there were some rich good guys and some unsavory average folks.
 
So, how difficult is it to understand the Wall Street Journal's circulation fraud?  Not that hard. 



Basic Assumption Needed to Understand

Circulation is the newspapers' equivalent to ratings.  Circulation means everything to the business types in the media.  The higher the circulation the more attractive a newspaper is to advertisers and the more they can charge. 

They don't make money by selling papers.  They make money by selling ads.  They sell ads and set the prices based on circulation.

So if your advertising price is for, say, 75,000 subscriptions per day, but you really only have  44,000, you're essentially charging your customers for a lot more eyeballs than actually see their ads.  Sort of like selling a fake Rolex at real Rolex prices. And at a large newspaper over a a couple of years, that could add up to quite a bit of 'stolen' money.  But for many people it doesn't quite seem like theft.  And while someone who steals $200 from an ATM machine might get a number of years in prison, how may newspaper executives go to prison for scamming for millions?



The Wall Street Journal Scheme (According to the Guardian)

1.   The WSJ sold papers below cost to European companies that gave the papers to students.  In return the WSJ had features which highlighted the companies.  This practice accounted for a whopping 41% of their European circulation.

"The Journal's decision to secretly purchase its own papers began with an unusual scheme to boost circulation, known as the Future Leadership Institute. Starting in January 2008, [remember this date] the Journal linked up with European companies who sponsored seminars for university students who were likely to be future leaders. The Journal rewarded the sponsors by publishing their names in a special panel published in the paper. The sponsors paid for that publicity by buying copies of the Journal at a knock-down rate of no more than 5¢ each. Those papers were then distributed to university students. At the bottom line, the sponsors enjoyed a prestigious link to the Journal, and the Journal boosted its circulation figures.

The scheme was controversial. The sponsoring companies were not reading the papers they were paying for; they were never even seeing them; and they were buying at highly reduced rates. The students to whom they were distributed may or may not have read them; none of the students paid for the papers they were being offered. But the Audit Bureau of Circulation ruled that the scheme was legitimate and by 2010, it was responsible for 41% of the European edition's daily sales – 31,000 copies out of a total of 75,000."

I did find it interesting that the inflated circulation number in Europe was only 75,000 in a market of (in 2010)  857 million people.

2.      A WSJ insider alerted the higher ups about the scheme and its illegitimacy.  The insider was fired.

Senior executives in New York, including Murdoch's right-hand man, Les Hinton, were alerted to the problems last year by an internal whistleblower and apparently chose to take no action. The whistleblower was then made redundant.

3.  When one of the main companies involved wanted to back out, the WSJ sweetened the deal.  Having circulation drop 16% wasn't going to look good.  They even found another company to cover the payments and told everyone to keep quiet.

In early 2010 the scheme began to run into trouble when the biggest single sponsor, a Dutch company called Executive Learning Partnership, ELP, threatened to back out. ELP alone were responsible for 16% of the Journal's European circulation, sponsoring 12,000 copies a day for which they were paying only 1¢ per copy. For the 259 publishing days in a year, they were sponsoring 3.1m copies at a cost to them of €31,080 (£27,200). They complained that the publicity they were receiving was not enough return on their investment.

On 9 April 2010, Andrew Langhoff emailed ELP to table a new deal, explaining that "our clear goal is to add a new component to our partnership" and offering to "provide a well-branded showcase for ELP's valuable services". On 30 April, ELP agreed to continue to sponsor 12,000 copies at the same rate. But that deal included a new eight-page addendum, which the Guardian has seen.
The addendum included a collection of side deals: the Journal would give ELP free advertising and, in exchange, the ELP would produce "leadership videos" for them; they would jointly organise more seminars and workshops on themes connected to ELP's work; but, crucially, Langhoff agreed that the Journal would publish "a minimum of three special reports" that would be based on surveys of the European market which ELP would run with the Journal's help. . .


By the autumn of 2010, ELP were complaining that the Journal was failing to deliver its end of the agreement. They threatened not to make a payment of €15,000 that was due at the end of December, for the copies of the Journal which they had sponsored since April 30. Without the payment, the Journal could not officially record the sales and their circulation figures would suddenly dive by 16%, undermining the confidence of advertisers and readers.

So Langhoff set up a complex scheme to channel money to ELP to pay for the papers it had agreed to buy – effectively buying the papers with the Journal's own cash. This involved the use of other companies although it is not suggested that they were aware they were taking part in a scam.

Of course when the WSJ was bought by Murdoch, who also owns Fox News, pundits immediately raised fears about the credibility of the WSJ.  From the Washington Post in August 2007:

The colorful and controversial tabloid king faced strong opposition during his four-month run at Dow Jones and whipped up worries that he would destroy the credibility of the august Journal.  [Emphasis added]

 If we look at the dates above, this scheme was put into action just six months after the WSJ was bought.

Consequences so far
The Guardian also writes that as word of their asking questions reached the WSJ's executives, Andrew Langhoff, the European managing director of the Journal's parent company, Dow Jones and Co, resigned. 

Personal note
I also have to add that the WSJ's history of selling copies to students didn't begin with Murdoch.  As a faculty member in a College of Business and Public Policy, I regularly got offers from the WSJ for a free subscription if I got students to buy the journal.  [See update below for example.] At least here the students were legitimately buying the journal (for a student rate as I recall) themselves.  But I always wondered how many faculty who made the offers to students also revealed that they would get a free subscriptions themselves.  (I never passed the offer on to my students.  Though I mentioned it a few times when we studied ethics.)

Some Contrast
There was also an Associated Press story I read in the Anchorage Daily News yesterday about boxer Dewey Bozella who is making his pro boxing debut at age 52 two years after his murder conviction was overturned and after serving 26 years in prison for a murder he didn't do.

. . . He was suspected in 1977 of killing Crapser. Bozella was fingered by a suspect in another crime and eventually charged for her death. But a grand jury found there wasn't enough evidence and refused to indict him. . .

Life unraveled in 1983 when false testimony from convicts that granted their freedom cost Bozella his. Bozella was arrested again for Crapser's death and in December 1983 was convicted of murder and sentenced to 20 years to life. He collapsed to the ground in tears, crying out that he didn't do it.

Murder is easy to understand and there is a demand for a conviction.  It doesn't matter if it's not the right guy as long as we can convince ourselves it is.  But fraud is dicier.

Apparently the folks at WSJ didn't see anything wrong when the whistleblower brought things to their attention a year ago.  Or they thought the risk was worth any possible consequences.  Langhof's resignation would seem to be the cost of doing business and mollifying anyone who is seriously concerned.  If it hadn't been for the leftover sensitivity from News Corps' recent phone hacking scandal, perhaps he wouldn't have had to resign.  And I'm sure Langhof's salary and other perks these last few years will carry him over for a while.

And Bozella gets a chance to get his body battered in a pro fight now that he's out of prison.


UPDATE October 14:  I just got an email offer for students of the type I mentioned above:

For a limited time, we are offering you a free 4-week trial to The Journal.  You'll receive the print Journal every weekday, plus unlimited access to the Online Journal.

The Wall Street Journal now provides more politics coverage than ever, making it an ideal complement to your Political Science textbook.  Plus, our Education program makes it easy for you to integrate our content into your curriculum.

With the Journal-in-Education program, you'll:

• Save time with our faculty-developed tools and integration ideas.
• Engage students and promote debate with The Journal's reliable coverage of U.S. and World events.
• Keep courses fresh with a daily supply of new material and information.

When your students subscribe, they'll receive The Journal in print, online and via smartphone.  Plus, students pay the lowest rate - 75% off regular rates!
Try out The Journal for free for 4 weeks and see for yourself how The Journal will provide you and your students with relevant, real-world content for your classes.

The Wall Street Journal Education Department
200 Burnett Road
Chicopee, MA 01020

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