Assembly Seats Up For Election:
Eagle River - Amy Demboski - one of the most conservative Assembly member representing a very conservative part of Anchorage. She's going to stay in office.
West Anchorage - Ernie Hall - had become a conservative vote and wasn't running again. He's likely being replaced by Eric Croft, who is more liberal establishment.
East Anchorage - Paul Honeman was in the liberal team and it looks like he will be replaced by another liberal - Forrest Dunbar.
Mid-Town - Dick Traini who has been on the Assembly longer than anyone else ever - is probably genetically more conservative, but his degrees in public planning and public administration gave him skills to analyze more objectively, and he's been considered a key player among the liberals. He's going to stay for another term.
South Anchorage - Jennifer Johnson has been considered as a member of the conservative wing of the Assembly and the race to replace her is close. But John Weddleton is slightly ahead (91% of the precincts reporting) with 3545 votes (43.40%) to Treg Taylor with 3297 votes (40.36%). Weddleton was very active in the rewrite of Title 21 which set the guidelines for building and development of Anchorage and would be in the liberal side if he wins. Taylor has billed himself as a conservative.
[Next update keeps a similar margin: Weddleton 3786 (43%) and Taylor 3527 (40%) with 92% of the vote.]
[11:15pm update: Weddleton edges a little more ahead 4711 - 4421 (43.38% to 40.71%) with 92.3% of the vote in that race counted. Though I don't think that includes the early and absentee votes.]
So, at this point, three liberals have won seats on the Assembly (a change of one more liberal) and one conservative has kept her seat. The final seat is too close to call.
The new assembly will be either be seven leaning left and four leaning right, or eight leaning left and three leaning right.
You can check for later results on the Weddleton/Taylor race here. (District 6, Seat J)
And I should say this liberal/conservative dichotomy is a short cut. But in reality there is a variety of issues that might 'test' someone's location in the political universe. And politicians are not necessarily predictable on all those issues.
Showing posts with label election 2015. Show all posts
Showing posts with label election 2015. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 05, 2016
Thursday, July 02, 2015
Seven Living Mayors of Anchorage Gather For Berkowitz Inauguration
 |
| Click to make bigger and much clearer |
I think there are six former Anchorage mayors in this picture. Tony Knowles on the far right in blue, Rick Mystrom, George Wuerch, Matt Claman (behind Weurch), Dan Sullivan in the brown jacket. And I think it's Mark Begich barely visible between Mystrom and Wuerch. Here's another of Begich later. And they're watching Anchorage's oldest living mayor (well, actually mayor of the former Borough of Anchorage) Jack Roderick swearing in Anchorage's newest mayor Ethan Berkowitz.
 |
| Click to make bigger and clearer |
Of the living mayors, I didn't see Tom Fink, and the ADN says he was absent. Fortunately, the predicted rain was also absent with the sun attending instead.
From Wikipedia:
Mayors of Greater Anchorage Area Borough (1964–1975)
Name Term John Asplund 1964–1972 √John Roderick 1972–1975 Mayors of Municipality of Anchorage (1975–)
Name Term George M. Sullivan 1975–1981 √Tony Knowles 1981–1987 Tom Fink 1987–1994 √Rick Mystrom 1994–2000 √George Wuerch July 1, 2000–July 1, 2003 √Mark Begich July 1, 2003–January 3, 2009 √Matt Claman January 3, 2009–July 1, 2009 √Daniel A. Sullivan July 1, 2009–July 1, 2015 √Ethan Berkowitz July 1, 2015–
Monday, June 01, 2015
Anchorage Mayor Election - Review Of The Numbers And What They May Portend
As the Republican majority caucuses in the state house and senate act [fill in the blank], it's probably useful to look back at the April general election and the May runoff in Anchorage, and consider what they might mean for future elections.
There are some interesting numbers to ponder.
First, more people voted in the runoff than in the general election. I thought that this was a first, though I'm not sure now. The Municipal election results page which goes back to 1991, shows two runoff elections prior to 2015. In 2009 there were a lot fewer voters in the runoff. But 2000 isn't as clear. The runoff election tally on the Muni website lists two different sets of totals. One is less than the general election total (62,406) and one is more.
You'd think the higher one might include absentee ballots, but election totals have lots of strange numbers so I'm not jumping to any conclusions. Amanda Moser runs the Municipal Elections. She also believed that the prior runoffs had lower turnouts when I talked to her earlier today. In fact, she pointed out that the Municipal Code only requires there to be as many ballots as in the regular election.
The table below shows the results of the general runoff elections.
Second, there were 13,352 MORE votes in the runoff than in the general election.
Third, Berkowitz won by 15,164 votes in the runoff.
Fourth, if you subtract the additional 13,352 votes in the runoff from Berkowitz' total, he would have had 29,164 votes, only 2,212 more votes than Demboski. The percentages would have been
Berkowitz 51.5% to Dembosky 48.5%. A much closer vote.
So, what does this all mean?
We have to be careful about reaching conclusions. I'm speculating here. But my sense of elections for the last ten years or so, has been that there is very low turnout and the only way Democrats have a chance to win when there are more Republicans is to get more people to vote. People who have just given up on the process or don't think their vote counts.
While we don't know how people who voted in the general election voted in the runoff, we do know that there were 13,352 more of them in the runoff than the general and that Berkowitz won by 15,164 votes.
Conservative v Liberal Showdown?
The runoff pitted a 30 something female candidate against a 50 something male. She identified herself as the most conservative candidate in the general election and he identified himself as socially liberal and fiscally conservative. She promised to veto a gay rights addition to the Municipal anti-discrimination ordinance and was strongly opposed to abortion. He was pro-gay rights and pro-choice. Gay rights hadn't done well in prior elections in Anchorage. (But then again times are changing.)
We don't know if it was the ideological stands, the name recognition, past experience, preference for a male candidate, or personality, or campaign styles that made the difference here. Probably different things for different voters. But we do know that a liberal trounced a conservative in the biggest city in a generally red state.
My guess is that the extra voters who came out in the runoff made all the difference. And if the Left can get them out again in the future, the state could see big changes.
November 2016 Election Implications
My sense is that the House and Senate Republicans, who have been acting like the trolls who lived under the bridge during our current budget crisis special session, exist in a giant echo chamber. The leaders are told by the oil and construction and other major industry lobbyists how wise and powerful they are. They're told they're doing the right thing and to stand tall because the people of Alaska are behind them despite what the biased media report. And they apparently believe that. Or the lobbyists are making them offers that the public simply can't match.
Now, the 2000 Census redistricting resulted in enough gerrymandering that a number of districts are safely Republican (and safely Democratic.) But in Anchorage, all but sixteen precincts went for Berkowitz, most of those in Demboski territory in Eagle River or Chugiak. That means most Anchorage precincts voted for the more liberal (and also well known candidate). I think this election tells us that with strong candidates, Democrats can win in most of Anchorage, just not the Eagle River/Chugiak area.
Despite the gerrymandering, there are 23 Republicans, 16 Democrats, and one non-affiliated who caucuses with the Democrats. Rural Democrats have traditionally been lured into majority Republican caucus with the promise of pork for their districts if they join and the threat of legislative castration if they don't. Three of the current rural Democrats are part of the current Majority Caucus.
But given this Anchorage election, and the anger that the Republican majorities in the House and Senate are stirring up now, the Democrats could pick enough seats House seats to tie the Republicans. If this happened the three renegade Dems along with the non-affiliated representative from Ketchikan, would likely join. It won't be easy, but if the Democrats had three strong candidates in marginally Republican districts, and could get people who normally don't vote to vote, they could do it. Of course, they would also have keep all the seats they presently have.
People think 2016 is too far away for people to remember, but I doubt next year's legislative session will be much prettier, even if the price of oil shoots back up. And people need health care and they want good schools for their kids. And they see the oil companies being protected in the budget fights while Alaskans are being told "it's time to make hard decisions."
Just some thoughts I had after renewing the Anchorage mayoral election numbers.
[NOTE: When I first went to get the numbers from the Muni election site, I had some questions. I talked to the MOA elections official Amanda Moser, but the numbers she was looking at were different from the ones I had on my screen. It turned out there were different pages on their website linking to different (but very similar) results. They've made some changes since this morning to fix that, but after the phone call, I found other inconsistencies in the numbers and emailed that information. The runoff information I had originally found is now (as I write) gone. Amanda emailed me the numbers and said she'll get the website fixed in the next couple of days. As a blogger, I recognize how hard it is to keep updating old pages and how easy it is to miss bad links, so I'm not too concerned. My dealings with that office over the last few elections have convinced me they're working really hard to keep things as accurate and transparent as possible. You can get the general election (April) numbers at the Municipal Election Results site. Here are some others tallies which may not be linked any longer (or may not be linked yet):
[June 2, 9am Update: I found the original Municipal page with the 2015 election results (it showed up in my history): http://www.muni.org/departments/assembly/clerk/elections/pages/electionresults.aspx]
There are some interesting numbers to ponder.
First, more people voted in the runoff than in the general election. I thought that this was a first, though I'm not sure now. The Municipal election results page which goes back to 1991, shows two runoff elections prior to 2015. In 2009 there were a lot fewer voters in the runoff. But 2000 isn't as clear. The runoff election tally on the Muni website lists two different sets of totals. One is less than the general election total (62,406) and one is more.
You'd think the higher one might include absentee ballots, but election totals have lots of strange numbers so I'm not jumping to any conclusions. Amanda Moser runs the Municipal Elections. She also believed that the prior runoffs had lower turnouts when I talked to her earlier today. In fact, she pointed out that the Municipal Code only requires there to be as many ballots as in the regular election.
“28.40.010 - Form.Fortunately she didn't stick with the minimum and ordered more for the May election.
B2
For each runoff election the municipal clerk shall ensure that the number of ballots prepared equals at least the number of voters who cast ballots in the election requiring the runoff election.”
The table below shows the results of the general runoff elections.
| Gen Election April 5, 2015 | Runoff May 5, 2015 | ||||
| Candidate | # of Votes | Percent | # of Votes | Percent | |
| KERN, | 62 | 0.11% | |||
| SPEZIALE, | 36 | 0.06% | |||
| AHERN | 406 | 0.71% | |||
| BAUER | 223 | 0.39% | |||
| BERKOWITZ | 21,189 | 37.03% | 42,869 | 60,75% | |
| COFFEY | 8261 | 14.44% | |||
| DARDEN | 609 | 1.06% | |||
| DEMBOSKI | 13,796 | 24.11% | 27,705 | 39.25% | |
| HALCRO | 12,340 | 21.57% | |||
| HUIT | 124 | 0.22% | |||
| JAMISON | 48 | 0.08% | |||
| WRITE-IN | 128 | 0.22% | |||
| Totals | 57,222 | 70,574 | +13,352 | ||
Second, there were 13,352 MORE votes in the runoff than in the general election.
Third, Berkowitz won by 15,164 votes in the runoff.
Fourth, if you subtract the additional 13,352 votes in the runoff from Berkowitz' total, he would have had 29,164 votes, only 2,212 more votes than Demboski. The percentages would have been
Berkowitz 51.5% to Dembosky 48.5%. A much closer vote.
So, what does this all mean?
We have to be careful about reaching conclusions. I'm speculating here. But my sense of elections for the last ten years or so, has been that there is very low turnout and the only way Democrats have a chance to win when there are more Republicans is to get more people to vote. People who have just given up on the process or don't think their vote counts.
While we don't know how people who voted in the general election voted in the runoff, we do know that there were 13,352 more of them in the runoff than the general and that Berkowitz won by 15,164 votes.
Conservative v Liberal Showdown?
The runoff pitted a 30 something female candidate against a 50 something male. She identified herself as the most conservative candidate in the general election and he identified himself as socially liberal and fiscally conservative. She promised to veto a gay rights addition to the Municipal anti-discrimination ordinance and was strongly opposed to abortion. He was pro-gay rights and pro-choice. Gay rights hadn't done well in prior elections in Anchorage. (But then again times are changing.)
We don't know if it was the ideological stands, the name recognition, past experience, preference for a male candidate, or personality, or campaign styles that made the difference here. Probably different things for different voters. But we do know that a liberal trounced a conservative in the biggest city in a generally red state.
My guess is that the extra voters who came out in the runoff made all the difference. And if the Left can get them out again in the future, the state could see big changes.
November 2016 Election Implications
My sense is that the House and Senate Republicans, who have been acting like the trolls who lived under the bridge during our current budget crisis special session, exist in a giant echo chamber. The leaders are told by the oil and construction and other major industry lobbyists how wise and powerful they are. They're told they're doing the right thing and to stand tall because the people of Alaska are behind them despite what the biased media report. And they apparently believe that. Or the lobbyists are making them offers that the public simply can't match.
Now, the 2000 Census redistricting resulted in enough gerrymandering that a number of districts are safely Republican (and safely Democratic.) But in Anchorage, all but sixteen precincts went for Berkowitz, most of those in Demboski territory in Eagle River or Chugiak. That means most Anchorage precincts voted for the more liberal (and also well known candidate). I think this election tells us that with strong candidates, Democrats can win in most of Anchorage, just not the Eagle River/Chugiak area.
Despite the gerrymandering, there are 23 Republicans, 16 Democrats, and one non-affiliated who caucuses with the Democrats. Rural Democrats have traditionally been lured into majority Republican caucus with the promise of pork for their districts if they join and the threat of legislative castration if they don't. Three of the current rural Democrats are part of the current Majority Caucus.
But given this Anchorage election, and the anger that the Republican majorities in the House and Senate are stirring up now, the Democrats could pick enough seats House seats to tie the Republicans. If this happened the three renegade Dems along with the non-affiliated representative from Ketchikan, would likely join. It won't be easy, but if the Democrats had three strong candidates in marginally Republican districts, and could get people who normally don't vote to vote, they could do it. Of course, they would also have keep all the seats they presently have.
People think 2016 is too far away for people to remember, but I doubt next year's legislative session will be much prettier, even if the price of oil shoots back up. And people need health care and they want good schools for their kids. And they see the oil companies being protected in the budget fights while Alaskans are being told "it's time to make hard decisions."
Just some thoughts I had after renewing the Anchorage mayoral election numbers.
[NOTE: When I first went to get the numbers from the Muni election site, I had some questions. I talked to the MOA elections official Amanda Moser, but the numbers she was looking at were different from the ones I had on my screen. It turned out there were different pages on their website linking to different (but very similar) results. They've made some changes since this morning to fix that, but after the phone call, I found other inconsistencies in the numbers and emailed that information. The runoff information I had originally found is now (as I write) gone. Amanda emailed me the numbers and said she'll get the website fixed in the next couple of days. As a blogger, I recognize how hard it is to keep updating old pages and how easy it is to miss bad links, so I'm not too concerned. My dealings with that office over the last few elections have convinced me they're working really hard to keep things as accurate and transparent as possible. You can get the general election (April) numbers at the Municipal Election Results site. Here are some others tallies which may not be linked any longer (or may not be linked yet):
- Runoff Results (May 15, 2015)
- April General Election Results (May 15, 2015)
- The most recent runoff summary result (May 22, 2015)
- The most recent runoff statement of votes (by precinct) (May 22, 2015)]
[June 2, 9am Update: I found the original Municipal page with the 2015 election results (it showed up in my history): http://www.muni.org/departments/assembly/clerk/elections/pages/electionresults.aspx]
Tuesday, May 05, 2015
Election Update #9: Mayor Elect Berkowitz 59.35% Runner Up Demboski 40.65%
Three more precincts added 1,320 votes. There are still 2 precincts unreported. That should be about 880 votes if they are like these last three precincts. And there's the absentee ballots yet to count*. I'll update this post tomorrow morning when the last two precincts come in.
But this election is over. I'm sure different voters had different reasons - but Demboski made a strong stand against gay rights and the voters rejected that. I expect to see LGBT folks added to our anti-discrimination ordinance before too long. Welcome, Anchorage, to the 20th century. Jerry Prevo and Jim Minnery, your power over Anchorage elections is over.
Reported at: 10:46pm
Votes cast: 61,567
[*UPDATE 11:30pm: As Anon linked to this ADN report from tonight that says many early votes have been counted and presumably are part of the total we have tonight:
But this election is over. I'm sure different voters had different reasons - but Demboski made a strong stand against gay rights and the voters rejected that. I expect to see LGBT folks added to our anti-discrimination ordinance before too long. Welcome, Anchorage, to the 20th century. Jerry Prevo and Jim Minnery, your power over Anchorage elections is over.
Reported at: 10:46pm
Votes cast: 61,567
 |
 |
| Mayor Elect Ethan Berkowitz - 36,540 59.35% | Runner Up Amy Demboski - 25,027 40.65% |
[*UPDATE 11:30pm: As Anon linked to this ADN report from tonight that says many early votes have been counted and presumably are part of the total we have tonight:
"Deputy municipal clerk Amanda Moser said at least 12,200 people cast votes ahead of Tuesday, up 60 percent over the April 7 election.
Elections officials planned to count roughly 6,000 absentee ballots cast between April 22 and 28 on Tuesday night with ballots cast at regular precincts Tuesday, Moser said.
Moser said officials had received at least 3,900 more absentee ballots that will likely be counted by Friday, along with any additional absentee by-mail ballots that arrive later in the week but were postmarked by Tuesday."]
Election Update #8: This Election Demonstrates Anchorage Voters Are Saner Than Some Thought
Here's how many votes so far: 60,247
There are still five precincts unreported. This is close to 11,000 more voters than on election night in April. And Berkowitz is 11,000 votes ahead of Demboski.
And there are still over 10,000 votes that came in early and will be counted later (at least I'm making the assumption they will do that like last time.)
DEMBOSKI, Amy 24,555 40.76%
BERKOWITZ, Ethan 35,692 59.24%
There are still five precincts unreported. This is close to 11,000 more voters than on election night in April. And Berkowitz is 11,000 votes ahead of Demboski.
And there are still over 10,000 votes that came in early and will be counted later (at least I'm making the assumption they will do that like last time.)
DEMBOSKI, Amy 24,555 40.76%
BERKOWITZ, Ethan 35,692 59.24%
Election Results #7 - Berkowitz 59% Demboski 40.9% With 53,761Votes Counted - This Election Is Pretty Much Over
I don't see a way for Demboski to catch up at this point. There are some 10,000 or so early votes still to be counted. But I would imagine the spread will be similar to tonight. But Demboski almost all of them to win. Not gonna happen.
You know, it will be hard for Demboski to concede to someone who supports fathers marrying their sons. (The picture of Jonathan Swift is my sarcasm alert icon.)
53,761 votes cast - more than election night in April. But only 92.7% of all the precincts.
DEMBOSKI, Amy 22,000 40.93%
BERKOWITZ, Ethan 31,744 59.07%
 |
| source |
You know, it will be hard for Demboski to concede to someone who supports fathers marrying their sons. (The picture of Jonathan Swift is my sarcasm alert icon.)
53,761 votes cast - more than election night in April. But only 92.7% of all the precincts.
DEMBOSKI, Amy 22,000 40.93%
BERKOWITZ, Ethan 31,744 59.07%
Election Update #6: Berkowitz 60,5% Demboski 39.4% 46,049 Votes Counted
21:30pm
46,049 votes in. Just 3,000 or so less than the April election night total. Has there ever been an Anchorage runoff election with more voters than the main election?
DEMBOSKI, Amy 18,177 39.47%
BERKOWITZ, Ethan 27,872 60.53%
46,049 votes in. Just 3,000 or so less than the April election night total. Has there ever been an Anchorage runoff election with more voters than the main election?
DEMBOSKI, Amy 18,177 39.47%
BERKOWITZ, Ethan 27,872 60.53%
Election Update #5: Berkowitz 60.4% Demboski 39.6% with 39,217 Votes Counted
At the end of the night in April, 24% of the voters had voted or 49,288 votes. After the early/absentee votes were counted it was up to 55,260 (26.1%)
Keep that in mind. That means we could be 3/4 of the way there for tonight with this count.
Time: 21:23pm
Number (%) of votes: 39,217 (19%)
DEMBOSKI, Amy 15,545 39.64%
BERKOWITZ, Ethan 23,672 60.36%
Keep that in mind. That means we could be 3/4 of the way there for tonight with this count.
Time: 21:23pm
Number (%) of votes: 39,217 (19%)
DEMBOSKI, Amy 15,545 39.64%
BERKOWITZ, Ethan 23,672 60.36%
Third Election Update: Berkowitz 62% - Demboski 37% with 12,375 Votes Counted
Let's remember that the votes are taken from the polling places to City Hall to be counted. The closest polling places to City Hall are downtown where Berkowitz is expected to do well. The ballots from Eagle River and Chugiak (Demboski's stronghold) will come in a little later.
There also appear to be 960 new voters since the April election. Then, there were 206,003 voters listed and tonight there are 206,993. But remember, that number is very high - almost 90% of voting age folks in Anchorage. Many have moved away or died, but haven't been purged from the voter list.
We had 2.6% of votes (at least of the 206,963) counted at the last update.
This time we have 5.98% counted - or 12,378 votes counted.
05/05/15
20:57:32
There also appear to be 960 new voters since the April election. Then, there were 206,003 voters listed and tonight there are 206,993. But remember, that number is very high - almost 90% of voting age folks in Anchorage. Many have moved away or died, but haven't been purged from the voter list.
We had 2.6% of votes (at least of the 206,963) counted at the last update.
This time we have 5.98% counted - or 12,378 votes counted.
05/05/15
20:57:32
| Registered Voters 206993 - Cards Cast 12378 5.98% | Num. Report Precinct 124 - Num. Reporting 36 29.03% |
| MAYOR | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | |||
| Number of Precincts | 124 | ||
| Precincts Reporting | 36 | 29.0% | |
| Times Counted | 12378/206993 | 6.0% | |
| Total Votes | 12375 | ||
| DEMBOSKI, Amy | 4581 | 37.02% | |
| BERKOWITZ, Ethan | 7794 | 62.98% | |
Second Set of Election Results - Berkowitz 66% Demboski 33% with 5000+ Votes Counted
|
| Registered Voters 206993 - Cards Cast 5445 2.63% | Num. Report Precinct 124 - Num. Reporting 20 16.13% |
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Early Anchorage Election Results
First count at 8:37pm - about 900 votes.
| Registered Voters 206993 - Cards Cast 945 0.46% | Num. Report Precinct 124 - Num. Reporting 5 4.03% |
| MAYOR | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | |||
| Number of Precincts | 124 | ||
| Precincts Reporting | 5 | 4.0% | |
| Times Counted | 945/206993 | 0.5% | |
| Total Votes | 945 | ||
| DEMBOSKI, Amy | 368 | 38.94% | |
| BERKOWITZ, Ethan | 577 | 61.06% | |
Election Night Off To Bad Start From This Blogger's Perspective
Here's a screen shot of the Muni's election page. (Because this is an image, the links won't work)
Note, there is a link for election results - but it's for the April election.
I can't find a link for today's election results. So, they either
wipe out the April results to do tonight's,
or . . .? ?
This has been the place to get results for the last several Muni elections.
I do have an email in asking about this, but I suspect they are busy doing other things.
Maybe I should check Twitter for this.
Two minutes later: Bingo. I found this link - http://results.muni.org/Runoff.htm
Nothing up yet. There was a run around noon that showed no results. But at least I have a place to look when the results come in.
Note, there is a link for election results - but it's for the April election.
I can't find a link for today's election results. So, they either
wipe out the April results to do tonight's,
or . . .? ?
This has been the place to get results for the last several Muni elections.
I do have an email in asking about this, but I suspect they are busy doing other things.
Maybe I should check Twitter for this.
Two minutes later: Bingo. I found this link - http://results.muni.org/Runoff.htm
Nothing up yet. There was a run around noon that showed no results. But at least I have a place to look when the results come in.
Monday, May 04, 2015
The Role Of Audio In Anchorage's Mayoral Race
First there was the audio of former assembly member Dan Coffey in the primaries. It was a message left on assembly member Allan Tesche's answer machine. Tesche's number was, apparently, accidentally dialed, while Coffey was talking to assembly member Starr about how buying votes from assembly members. It had been highly publicized when Tesche discovered it on his answer machine back in 2008. And Coffey, in a mea culpa page on this campaign website, even linked to the transcript. But when a TV station said they would put the audio online, Coffey's attorney threatened to sue. Coffey, later said no, he wouldn't sue.
And for the last week before the election a second very different kind of audio tape has been the focus of attention. First Jerry Prevo said he'd heard about it from someone and told the nasty to his congregation.
Then Amy Demboski was asked about it on the air. The conservative talk show host said he thought she would denounce the allegation as ridiculous. Instead, she said she heard it and she didn't know that he (her opponent, Ethan Berkowitz) didn't mean it.
But the station said the audio didn't exist. They recycle them after a certain amount of time.
The allegation? That Ethan Berkowitz said he not only supported gay marriage, but also that a man could marry his own son.
Once you have an allegation like that, and the tape is missing, there's no way you can totally undo the damage. People who want to believe the worst will believe it.
And now there's a post on Joe Miller's website with Bernadette Wilson mysteriously finding the tape and playing edited bits of what is a very hypothetical debate. It's not clear what has been cut out, but Berkowitz is clearly saying he's not talking about sex, but about a last resort to protect a child in areas like passing on property rights. Here's Nat Herz' coverage of it:
I can just say that while I've only had a few conversations with Berkowitz over the years, I know him well enough to know that he does not support incestuous marriages. As an academic, I can understand getting deep into hypotheticals, But it's probably not something a politician should have let himself get baited into, even in a very hypothetical discussion. We're talking about the only legislator to stand up on the floor of the house of representatives to protest Veco's interference with the legislative process on the oil tax vote.
If I recall right, back in the early eighties, Tony Knowles stood up as an assembly member against, discrimination against gays, and was still elected mayor. We're a long way beyond those days now. By this time tomorrow night, we'll see whether Demboski is able to demagogue enough voters to win this election. I'm guessing not. The allegation may resonate with some, but for most, it will seem like what it is - a lame attempt to smear an opponent. But if she does lose, she'll still be on the assembly, and now that she's tasted this much attention and power, she's not going to walk away from it.
And given early voting, a lot of folks will have already voted long before the tape was released. When I voted almost two weeks ago, there was a longer line than when I voted early for the main election in April.
And for the last week before the election a second very different kind of audio tape has been the focus of attention. First Jerry Prevo said he'd heard about it from someone and told the nasty to his congregation.
Then Amy Demboski was asked about it on the air. The conservative talk show host said he thought she would denounce the allegation as ridiculous. Instead, she said she heard it and she didn't know that he (her opponent, Ethan Berkowitz) didn't mean it.
But the station said the audio didn't exist. They recycle them after a certain amount of time.
The allegation? That Ethan Berkowitz said he not only supported gay marriage, but also that a man could marry his own son.
Once you have an allegation like that, and the tape is missing, there's no way you can totally undo the damage. People who want to believe the worst will believe it.
And now there's a post on Joe Miller's website with Bernadette Wilson mysteriously finding the tape and playing edited bits of what is a very hypothetical debate. It's not clear what has been cut out, but Berkowitz is clearly saying he's not talking about sex, but about a last resort to protect a child in areas like passing on property rights. Here's Nat Herz' coverage of it:
I guess the Koch brothers' money that has been injected into this campaign and that paid for the commercial of their other Alaskan golden child Senator Dan Sullivan supporting Demboski, has bought a marketing team that has carefully built this up to release this tape the day before the election.
"The recording showed the conversation between the two hosts started as a legal debate on the same-sex marriage issue in the appellate courts, with Berkowitz taking a libertarian position that consenting adults should be allowed to choose their own relationships. An unidentified caller took the issue further, asking Berkowitz whether a father and son 'should be allowed to marry if they’re both consenting adults.'
'If you're defining marriage as the bundle of rights and privileges that now accrue to people, yes,' Berkowitz said. In the show, he explained he was talking about financial and property rights, not incest, and on Monday, after the recording aired, said he had found himself 'frustrated' within a 'constrained hypothetical conversation.'”
I can just say that while I've only had a few conversations with Berkowitz over the years, I know him well enough to know that he does not support incestuous marriages. As an academic, I can understand getting deep into hypotheticals, But it's probably not something a politician should have let himself get baited into, even in a very hypothetical discussion. We're talking about the only legislator to stand up on the floor of the house of representatives to protest Veco's interference with the legislative process on the oil tax vote.
If I recall right, back in the early eighties, Tony Knowles stood up as an assembly member against, discrimination against gays, and was still elected mayor. We're a long way beyond those days now. By this time tomorrow night, we'll see whether Demboski is able to demagogue enough voters to win this election. I'm guessing not. The allegation may resonate with some, but for most, it will seem like what it is - a lame attempt to smear an opponent. But if she does lose, she'll still be on the assembly, and now that she's tasted this much attention and power, she's not going to walk away from it.
 |
| Early Voting Anchorage April 23,2015 |
And given early voting, a lot of folks will have already voted long before the tape was released. When I voted almost two weeks ago, there was a longer line than when I voted early for the main election in April.
Saturday, May 02, 2015
Why Don't Anchorage Mayoral Candidates Fill Out The Basic Muni Job Application Form?
Suppose you were hiring someone to run an organization with a $400 million budget? Would you ask applicants' PR firms to write you some copy about their clients to evaluate their merits? Hell no.
But that's what Anchorage voters get from candidates for mayor (and assembly and school board). The Muni just gets their names and addresses. (See Municipal requirements for filing.) The financial disclosure info is fairly complex, and the information on financial interests and campaign donors is important, but doesn't give us the kind of resume information that job applicants normally submit. [Update 5/3/15 though Anon's links in the comments do give us some employer info.] All we get is what they post on their websites and send to the League of Women Voters. We get lots of 'interview' in debates, but little basic background data.
We're left to the mercy of the media to find out what our candidates' careers have been like. Neither Berkowitz's nor Demboski's websites tell us very much about their education or work experience.
What would the voters and the media know, from day one, if the candidates had to fill out the same form most municipal job applicants have to fill out?
MOA job application requires:
Instead we get cosmetically enhanced mini-bios, like these from the League of Women Voters whose voter pamphlet is linked from the Municipal election site:
We don't know, for example, what businesses Berkowitz was involved with and what he did for them? Nor do we know what "multi-million dollar businesses" Demboski's website says she built and managed. And I've only seen hints here and there online that they were healthcare related, specifically dental practices. But I don't have enough information to check with the dentists to see to what extent Demboski's work was what made them 'multi-million dollar businesses.'
The lack of such basic information on the candidates, means it's only in the last week of the election that we're learning that Demboski was in the Air Force, but we don't know for how long or the nature of her discharge. You'd think someone representing JBER on the Assembly would have her Air Force experience listed. Why leave it off? If a Muni job applicant left that information off, they could be eliminated from the pool of applicants, or if hired for the job, fired when it was discovered.
We're essentially hiring the CEO for a $400 million a year enterprise. Surely an informed public should have more hard information to base their decisions on than we have.
I'm not sure who has to authorize it (can the Clerk's office do this without Assembly approval?), but I think at the very minimum, all applicants for Municipal office - mayor, assembly and school board members - should have to fill out a municipal job application form with the same obligations as any other job applicant:
Then the public would have real information, not pr puff, with which to weigh the merits of each candidate.
But that's what Anchorage voters get from candidates for mayor (and assembly and school board). The Muni just gets their names and addresses. (See Municipal requirements for filing.) The financial disclosure info is fairly complex, and the information on financial interests and campaign donors is important, but doesn't give us the kind of resume information that job applicants normally submit. [Update 5/3/15 though Anon's links in the comments do give us some employer info.] All we get is what they post on their websites and send to the League of Women Voters. We get lots of 'interview' in debates, but little basic background data.
We're left to the mercy of the media to find out what our candidates' careers have been like. Neither Berkowitz's nor Demboski's websites tell us very much about their education or work experience.
What would the voters and the media know, from day one, if the candidates had to fill out the same form most municipal job applicants have to fill out?
MOA job application requires:
- Criminal Convictions - Have you ever been convicted of any violation of the law, other than minor traffic violations?(A DUI/DWI must be listed.) If yes, provide nature of conviction(s), date(s) and sentence(s). If more space is needed, provide an attachment.
- Education
- High School
- College and Graduate School
- Technical School
- Employment History
- Describe all work history beginning with your current or most recent job. Include volunteer and military experience, including military rank. If necessary, use additional pages or a resume as long as it provides all required information
- Failure to provide complete and accurate information regarding each job held, including providing misleading or false information, may result in disqualification for the position or termination upon discovery.
- For each job
- Job Title
- Name/Title of Supervisor with phone number
- Company Name plus city and state
- Ending pay, hours per week
- Employment dates from __ to __
- Reasons for leaving
- Duties and Responsibilities
- Then there’s some boxes for:
- List the types of computer software and programs you have used.
- List any other special qualifications, skills and/or abilities.
- List relatives employed by the Municipality of Anchorage (Name, Relationship, Department)
Instead we get cosmetically enhanced mini-bios, like these from the League of Women Voters whose voter pamphlet is linked from the Municipal election site:
Ethan Berkowitz
Coming to Anchorage in 1990, I started my career in the state criminal appeals court and then working as a prosecutor. My wife Mara and I are raising our two kids here.
We enjoy Anchorage’s great public schools, first-class trails, and vibrant, diverse community.
I served West Anchorage in the Alaska Legislature for ten years, championing fiscal responsibility and energy development.
As a small business owner with a background in telecommunications, public safety and energy development, I will bring unique experience to the mayor’s office to make Anchorage a safe, secure and strong community.
Amy Demboski Amy currently serves on the Anchorage Assembly representing Chugiak, Eagle River and JBER. Amy graduated from Chugiak High School and holds degrees in Justice and History, as well as an MBA with an emphasis in Finance.Berkowitz doesn't even give his educational background, but at least he is profiled on Wikipedia. Perhaps he thought Harvard and Hastings College of Law might intimidate people. But if you are weighing educational background, which candidate's brain do you think got the better workout? Berkowitz with his Harvard and Hastings or Demoski with UAA and an MBA from an online college based in Alabama? That's not to say you couldn't get a decent online degree, but if you had applicants with those credentials (and Muni voters do), which way would you lean?
Her background in business development and management give her a practical understanding on how to lead corporations, budget, and measure return on investment. She has held multiple public service positions including commissioner on the Judicial Conduct Commission, Chair of the Municipal Budget Advisory Commission, and Community Council President.
Amy will focus on essential services: public safety, infrastructure, and education, coupled with sound fiscal policy.
We don't know, for example, what businesses Berkowitz was involved with and what he did for them? Nor do we know what "multi-million dollar businesses" Demboski's website says she built and managed. And I've only seen hints here and there online that they were healthcare related, specifically dental practices. But I don't have enough information to check with the dentists to see to what extent Demboski's work was what made them 'multi-million dollar businesses.'
The lack of such basic information on the candidates, means it's only in the last week of the election that we're learning that Demboski was in the Air Force, but we don't know for how long or the nature of her discharge. You'd think someone representing JBER on the Assembly would have her Air Force experience listed. Why leave it off? If a Muni job applicant left that information off, they could be eliminated from the pool of applicants, or if hired for the job, fired when it was discovered.
We're essentially hiring the CEO for a $400 million a year enterprise. Surely an informed public should have more hard information to base their decisions on than we have.
I'm not sure who has to authorize it (can the Clerk's office do this without Assembly approval?), but I think at the very minimum, all applicants for Municipal office - mayor, assembly and school board members - should have to fill out a municipal job application form with the same obligations as any other job applicant:
If the Muni can require this of other employees, why not for the top job? I realize that for regular employees the information collected is confidential and the public as a whole doesn't get the right to verify all the data. But I know it wouldn't be too complicated to have the same people at the Muni who vet regular employees to check on candidates as well.APPLICANT AUTHORIZATION AND CERTIFICATION - I AUTHORIZE the Municipality of Anchorage (MOA) to obtain any information relating to the facts provided in this application from schools, employers, criminal justice agencies, individuals, ETC. This information may include, but is not limited to, academic, performance, attendance, achievement, personal history, disciplinary, arrest, and conviction records.I DIRECT you to release such information to the MOA regardless of any agreement I may have made with you previously to the contrary.I RELEASE any employer, including individuals such as records custodians, from any and all liability for damages of whatever kind or nature which may at any time result on account of compliance, or any attempts to comply with this authorization.I CERTIFY that the statements contained herein are true to the best of my knowledge. I understand that any incomplete, inaccurate, misleading, false or incorrect information may result in rejection of my application, disqualification from consideration, may render an appointment void and/or can be cause for my dismissal upon discovery.I AGREE to submit to such tests and physical and/or mental examinations as the MOA may require.
Then the public would have real information, not pr puff, with which to weigh the merits of each candidate.
Wednesday, April 29, 2015
News Flash: If Same-Sex Marriage Is Legal, No One Will Have To Marry A Same Sex Partner
Everyone will be free to choose to marry the person they love.
I write this the day after the US Supreme Court heard Obergefall v. Hodges. And after equal rights became an issue once again in an Anchorage mayoral race.
From today's ADN:
Let's hope Jerry Prevo's message no longer matters to Anchorage voters next week and that he'll have to find some other issue to get his people to hand over their money to support his religious empire in Anchorage.
I write this the day after the US Supreme Court heard Obergefall v. Hodges. And after equal rights became an issue once again in an Anchorage mayoral race.
From today's ADN:
“This is the kind of mayor we need for Anchorage on May 5,” wrote Prevo, using all capital letters and referencing the date of the runoff election. “Not one like Ethan Berkowitz who supports same-sex marriage and ordinances that will take away the rights of those who do not agree with him.”Not sure what rights, other than to discriminate against people they don't like, Prevo's people will lose. While LGBT folks lose lots of rights from Prevo's position.
Let's hope Jerry Prevo's message no longer matters to Anchorage voters next week and that he'll have to find some other issue to get his people to hand over their money to support his religious empire in Anchorage.
Tuesday, April 07, 2015
Looks Like Berkowitz (36% now) Versus Demboski (24% now) In Runoff 96% of Precincts Reporting
Here's the 10:49 report - 97% of precincts reporting. Miserable 24% turnout at this point.
| MAYOR | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | |||
| Number of Precincts | 124 | ||
| Precincts Reporting | 121 | 97.6% | |
| Times Counted | 49601/206033 | 24.1% | |
| Total Votes | 49288 | ||
| KERN, Jacob Seth | 53 | 0.11% | |
| SPEZIALE, Samuel Jos | 29 | 0.06% | |
| AHERN, Lance | 339 | 0.69% | |
| BAUER, Paul | 188 | 0.38% | |
| BERKOWITZ, Ethan | 18158 | 36.84% | |
| COFFEY, Dan | 7139 | 14.48% | |
| DARDEN, Dustin | 509 | 1.03% | |
| DEMBOSKI, Amy | 11980 | 24.31% | |
| HALCRO, Andrew | 10645 | 21.60% | |
| HUIT, Timothy | 101 | 0.20% | |
| JAMISON, Christopher | 37 | 0.08% | |
| Write-in Votes | 110 | 0.22% | |
Berkowitz at 37%, Demboski 24%, Halcro 21% at 10:32pm Report
| Registered Voters 206033 - Cards Cast 45490 22.08% | Num. Report Precinct 124 - Num. Reporting 119 95.97% |
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Halcro 1000 Votes Behind Demboski, 7,000 Behind Berkowitz - 10:22pm Report
43795 votes in as of the 10:11pm report. That's 21.26% of the registered voters (many of whom are phantom). This may be close to half the people who actually voted, though this is a mayoral race and one with lots of candidates.
If things stay the same, Berkowitz will face Demboski in a runoff.
Meanwhile, Prop 3 is even further behind 43% Yes, 56% No.
School board races show incumbents winning. Snelling is 1300 votes ahead of Marsett in Seat G.
You can see the results yourselves at two muni sites:
1. For mayoral and school board races
2. For ballot measures
If things stay the same, Berkowitz will face Demboski in a runoff.
| Registered Voters 206033 - Cards Cast 43795 21.26% | Num. Report Precinct 124 - Num. Reporting 116 93.55% |
| MAYOR | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | |||
| Number of Precincts | 124 | ||
| Precincts Reporting | 116 | 93.5% | |
| Times Counted | 43795/206033 | 21.3% | |
| Total Votes | 43519 | ||
| KERN, Jacob Seth | 48 | 0.11% | |
| SPEZIALE, Samuel Jos | 27 | 0.06% | |
| AHERN, Lance | 292 | 0.67% | |
| BAUER, Paul | 153 | 0.35% | |
| BERKOWITZ, Ethan | 16345 | 37.56% | |
| COFFEY, Dan | 6236 | 14.33% | |
| DARDEN, Dustin | 452 | 1.04% | |
| DEMBOSKI, Amy | 10375 | 23.84% | |
| HALCRO, Andrew | 9372 | 21.54% | |
| HUIT, Timothy | 90 | 0.21% | |
| JAMISON, Christopher | 29 | 0.07% | |
| Write-in Votes | 100 | 0.23% | |
Meanwhile, Prop 3 is even further behind 43% Yes, 56% No.
School board races show incumbents winning. Snelling is 1300 votes ahead of Marsett in Seat G.
You can see the results yourselves at two muni sites:
1. For mayoral and school board races
2. For ballot measures
Rankings Holding - Berkowitz back to 38%, Demboski 23%, Halcro 21%, Coffey 14%
21:55pm Updated numbers:
| MAYOR | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | |||
| Number of Precincts | 124 | ||
| Precincts Reporting | 108 | 87.1% | |
| Times Counted | 39779/206033 | 19.3% | |
| Total Votes | 39525 | ||
| KERN, Jacob Seth | 46 | 0.12% | |
| SPEZIALE, Samuel Jos | 25 | 0.06% | |
| AHERN, Lance | 269 | 0.68% | |
| BAUER, Paul | 143 | 0.36% | |
| BERKOWITZ, Ethan | 15135 | 38.29% | |
| COFFEY, Dan | 5600 | 14.17% | |
| DARDEN, Dustin | 416 | 1.05% | |
| DEMBOSKI, Amy | 9270 | 23.45% | |
| HALCRO, Andrew | 8417 | 21.30% | |
| HUIT, Timothy | 85 | 0.22% | |
| JAMISON, Christopher | 28 | 0.07% | |
| Write-in Votes | 91 | 0.23% | |
Berkowitz Still Ahead With 38% At 9:26pm Election Update, Then Demboski At 23%
With 20,985 votes counted, here's the 9:26pm report
[UPDATE 9:54 -And another report came out a few minutes later giving Berkowitz 39% and Demboski 22%, Halcro 21%]
And the 9:32pm report on the ballot measures shows them all passing comfortably except Number 3 which is losing by 11% still. I've listed the items voted on for #3 in the previous post.
| MAYOR | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | |||
| Number of Precincts | 124 | ||
| Precincts Reporting | 62 | 50.0% | |
| Times Counted | 21119/206033 | 10.3% | |
| Total Votes | 20985 | ||
| KERN, Jacob Seth | 25 | 0.12% | |
| SPEZIALE, Samuel Jos | 16 | 0.08% | |
| AHERN, Lance | 141 | 0.67% | |
| BAUER, Paul | 77 | 0.37% | |
| BERKOWITZ, Ethan | 8128 | 38.73% | |
| COFFEY, Dan | 2868 | 13.67% | |
| DARDEN, Dustin | 235 | 1.12% | |
| DEMBOSKI, Amy | 4878 | 23.25% | |
| HALCRO, Andrew | 4508 | 21.48% | |
| HUIT, Timothy | 46 | 0.22% | |
| JAMISON, Christopher | 19 | 0.09% | |
| Write-in Votes | 44 | 0.21% | |
[UPDATE 9:54 -And another report came out a few minutes later giving Berkowitz 39% and Demboski 22%, Halcro 21%]
| MAYOR | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | |||
| Number of Precincts | 124 | ||
| Precincts Reporting | 74 | 59.7% | |
| Times Counted | 25955/206033 | 12.6% | |
| Total Votes | 25781 | ||
| KERN, Jacob Seth | 31 | 0.12% | |
| SPEZIALE, Samuel Jos | 19 | 0.07% | |
| AHERN, Lance | 175 | 0.68% | |
| BAUER, Paul | 96 | 0.37% | |
| BERKOWITZ, Ethan | 10056 | 39.01% | |
| COFFEY, Dan | 3553 | 13.78% | |
| DARDEN, Dustin | 287 | 1.11% | |
| DEMBOSKI, Amy | 5919 | 22.96% | |
| HALCRO, Andrew | 5502 | 21.34% | |
| HUIT, Timothy | 58 | 0.22% | |
| JAMISON, Christopher | 22 | 0.09% | |
| Write-in Votes | 63 | 0.24% | |
And the 9:32pm report on the ballot measures shows them all passing comfortably except Number 3 which is losing by 11% still. I've listed the items voted on for #3 in the previous post.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)