Showing posts with label decision making. Show all posts
Showing posts with label decision making. Show all posts

Sunday, April 28, 2024

Israel-Gaza VI: Finding Criteria For A Just Resolution

Thıs ıs a long post in which I try to link different ideas together.  Since I'm not posting every day nowadays, you can come back and finish this one over a few days. :) 


[OVERVIEW:  This post looks at the question:  What criteria would you use to determine the legitimacy of the Palestinian and Israel claims to Palestine?  Then it uses information from the previous five posts, as well as additional information, on Israel and Gaza to show why this is not the black and white issue both sides claim it to be.  Sounds pretty simple, but I started this back in early March and I've been trying to tease out the key points since.  Not sure it will get any better so posting it now. Have fun.]

Parts I-IV of this series of posts briefly discussed a number of subjects to show how complicated the Israeli-Gaza war is and why ıt ıs hard to speak intelligently and knowledgeably about the topic. 

 Part V outlined a few observations I came to while researching and writing the first four posts.  

In this post, I want to give an example of how those complexities make simple answers to any of this an easy, perhaps, but uninformed response. I'll refer to a number of the issues I identified in the earlier posts. I get that people grasp for some easy answer, especially in response to the unconscionable killing of Palestinians in Gaza.  But as comforting as that might be, slogans based on ignorance lead to even more confusion and anger.   


Let's look at the question of who has the best claim to the land between the river and the sea.  This refers to the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea.  On the map you can see that would cover all of modern day Israel as well as the Palestinian areas - Gaza and the West Bank.  

I include the map here because it's been said that many people shouting the motto "From the river to the sea" supposedly didn't know which river and which sea were meant.  [But are these claims true or just made to discredit demonstrators?  The link talks about hiring a polling company to ask students - but it didn't say that they were specifically students demonstrating and shouting the phrase.  There is so much spin going on over this topic we need to take everything with a grain of salt. We need to ask people what they mean before we attack them.]

While the Hamas declaration of 1988 (highlighted in Part IV) clearly says Hamas wants an Islamic state controlling all of historic Palestine (the British Mandate), this NPR article says many students chanting the slogan mean they want peace and freedom for all people living between the river and the sea. 

Hamas originally claimed all the land (see the section on the Hamas declaration in Part IV) which would mean the elimination of Israel, on the grounds that Palestinians have lived there for generations.  They claim that Israel is a colonial state taken from the local Palestinians by Europeans and Americans.   Israelis claim that Jews have lived there for thousands of years.  

That's very different from wanting peace and freedom for everyone living from the river to the sea.  

Basically, the current Israeli government led by Netanyahu wants Israel to exist and to have control over the Palestinian areas, because, as I understand it, they do not trust Arabs to peacefully live in their own country adjacent to Israel. 

And Hamas wants an Islamic State to control the whole area.  At least that's what the 1988 declaration says.  Yesterday (April 25, 2024) AP said.

"A top Hamas political official told The Associated Press the Islamic militant group is willing to agree to a truce of five years or more with Israel and that it would lay down its weapons and convert into a political party if an independent Palestinian state is established along pre-1967 borders."
"Over the years, Hamas has sometimes moderated its public position with respect to the possibility of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. But its political program still officially “rejects any alternative to the full liberation of Palestine, from the river to the sea” — referring to the area reaching from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea, which includes lands that now make up Israel."
So one of the issues that both sides seem to totally disagree about is who has the right to live in this territory between the river and the sea.  Both groups?  One group? or the other?  How can this disagreement be resolved?  Let's just look at this one question to get a sense of how NOT easy this all is.  

Who has the most legitimate claims to the territory Israel occupies?

I would ask people to step back now and contemplate how one would evaluate those claims?  How should an impartial judge answer that question?  What criteria would such an objective observer use to determine who had the most legitimate claim to that land?  Must it be all or nothing?

Even coming up with criteria is fraught with problems.  Philosopher John Rawls has proposed a way to create rules for a just society - it would have to be done collectively, before anyone knows what role they will be assigned in that society.  Otherwise you give your role favorable conditions.  

",,,everyone decides principles of justice from behind a veil of ignorance. This "veil" is one that essentially blinds people to all facts about themselves so they cannot tailor principles to their own advantage:

"[N]o one knows his place in society, his class position or social status, nor does anyone know his fortune in the distribution of natural assets and abilities, his intelligence, strength, and the like. I shall even assume that the parties do not know their conceptions of the good or their special psychological propensities. The principles of justice are chosen behind a veil of ignorance."

The same problems are true about setting up the criteria for evaluating the claims to this land.  People will favor those criteria that they know will lead to the outcome they prefer.  But in the world we live in, that veil of ignorance is not possible.  

So which criteria to use?

  1. Who's been there the longest?  
    1. How would you measure this? 
      1. Jews have lived in and around Jerusalem and other parts of Israel for about 3000 years.  
      2. Christianity is 2000 years old, and 
      3. Mohamed didn't found Islam until 610 AD.  
  2. Whose traditions are connected to the land?     
    1. Jerusalem holds major holy sites for all three religions. Plus others like Bahá'ì.
  3. What group's culture has no other homeland where the majority of the population share their language, religion, and customs other than in this disputed land?  
  4. What group has the most people?
  5. Who will make the best use of the land? 
  6. Flip a coin?
Below are some thoughts on intricacies of answering the questions above (particularly 1-3)

1.  National borders change constantly over time.  Hong Kong was under British rule from 1898- 1997.  India was a British colony for nearly two hundred years. After India became independent,  Pakistan split from India in 1947.  Bangladesh split from Pakistan in 1971. Russia colonized parts of Alaska from the 1830s until they sold all of Alaska to the United States in 1867. Though they only had colonized  relatively small portion of Alaska and the indigenous population had no say in any of this. Alaska became a US state in 1959.  Hawaii became an internationally recognized kingdom in 1808 but then was conquered by the US in 1898.  

Today's African nations' boundaries were dictated mostly by European colonial rulers, focused on exploiting natural resources, not which groups of people lived where.  

The Ottoman empire controlled Palestine for 400 years until the British took over and eventually, through the Balfour Declaration created Israel.  After the creation of Israel in 1948, the West Bank was basically controlled by Jordan and Gaza was controlled by Egypt until the 1967 war.  

2. Colonization

The Hamas Charter talks about Israel as a colonial power.  But let's look at that a little more carefully.  Here's a generally common definition much like this one from dictionary.com

"-a country or territory claimed and forcibly taken control of by a foreign power which sends its own people to settle there:

-a group of people who leave their native country to form a settlement in a territory that their own government has claimed and forcibly taken control of:"

European nations set up colonies in the Western Hemisphere, South America, Asia, Australia.  In all cases the colony was controlled by a mother country elsewhere.

Israel is a special case.  There is no mother country.  Instead we have a people scattered around in many other countries - always a small religious minority, often reviled and with fewer rights than other citizens.  And then, of course, there was the Holocaust.  

So Jews had no homeland where their religion and culture was protected and where they weren't a minority.  From Wikipedia:

"According to the Hebrew Bible, the First Temple was built in the 10th century BCE, during the reign of Solomon over the United Kingdom of Israel. It stood until c. 587 BCE, when it was destroyed during the Babylonian siege of Jerusalem.[1] Almost a century later, the First Temple was replaced by the Second Temple, which was built after the Neo-Babylonian Empire was conquered by the Achaemenid Persian Empire. While the Second Temple stood for a longer period of time than the First Temple, it was likewise destroyed during the Roman siege of Jerusalem in 70 CE."

My sense is that Hamas knows there is no Jewish mother country (in the US where Jews have their largest population, they make up less than 3% of the total population.)  Hamas seems to be using 'colonial' to imply that Western nations, in some sense, are the 'White" mother nations of Israel.  And Britain was the last European nation to have control over Palestine and agreed to the creation of Israel.  

But if the State of Israel were to be dissolved, there really is no 'home' country for Jews to go to.  Though Caryn Aviv and David Shneer, in their 2005 book New Jews argue that the idea of diaspora may be out of date, that there are vibrant Jewish communities around the world where Jews feel rooted and do not long to return Israel.  They argue for exchanging fear - and Israel as the safe home for Jews - for hope based on all the new ways Jews are redefining themselves.  But this is a tiny minority opinion.

On the other hand, Palestinian Muslims speak Arabic and follow Islam.  There are many Islamic countries in the world, where Arabic is spoken.  Yet their argument that being Palestinian makes them different from other Arab cultures is partially confirmed by the fact that neither Egypt nor Jordan - both close neighbors of Israel - do not want a large influx of Palestinians.  

But the Islamic State that Hamas declares (in their declaration) is mandated for Palestine, would be radically different from the culture that Palestinians have developed in Palestine.  

"The Islamic Resistance Movement [firmly] believes that the land of Palestine is an Islamic Waqf [Trust] upon all Muslim generations till the day of Resurrection." 

Such an Islamic state would be more different from current Palestinian culture than if Palestinians moved to most other Arab countries.  Or even non Arab countries. And how does this accommodate the Christian Arabs who live in Palestine?   

3.  Countries where Indigenous Populations regained control have been former colonies

Most former colonies that are now independent countries  are former European colonies.  The  borders imposed by the foreign conquerors often didn't match the local indigenous boundaries and led to countries that have different ethnic groups competing for power.  Israel and Palestine is such an example.  

So while it's accurate to say that England left behind the seeds of conflict in the former Palestine Mandate as it did in other former colonies, the Jews of Israel are different from the colonialists who exploited other European colonies.   While many, if not most, came from Europe, they can trace their historical connection to the land back 3000 years.  And others have come from Arabic countries in North Africa and the Middle East.  These are people who spoke Arabic as well as ancient biblical languages into the 20th Century.

In other cases - say the US and much of South America  - the European settlers simply attempted to Christianize the indigenous populations, move them,  and if that didn't work, annihilate them.  

When the Soviet Union collapsed, former member states, such as the Yugoslavia, broke up, not peacefully,  into smaller states based on ethnicity.  East Germany, more peacefully, joined West Germany.  


Is there a solution both sides would agree to?

To the extent that Hamas and Netanyahu's government are negotiating, probably not.   

The parties' demands are mutually exclusive 

The Israeli government under Netanyahu says elimination of Hamas and Israeli control of Gaza is what they will accept.  [But note, the wording changes regularly, but the basics seem to stay the same.] While Hamas has pulled back, at least on paper, from demanding that they will not be satisfied until the Jewish state no longer exists, they still believe that all of Palestine is rightfully an Islamic State whose laws should be based on the Koran.  

Could other nations get Hamas and and the current Israeli government to come to an agreement?

The world leaders have been trying since the creation of Israel with no lasting success.

What leverage do outside players have on Israel and Palestinians?

Both parties get their weapons from foreign countries, though Israel itself has a formidable arms industry of its own.  

The outside supporters could tell Israel and Hamas that they will cut off all weapons until there is a peace treaty.  Let's look at the key countries involved.

Middle East Eye says that while the US is by far the biggest arms supplier to Israel, they also get weapons from Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, and Canada

The American Friends Service Committee has put out a list of companies that profit from the Israeli attacks on Gaza.  Go to the link to see the list.  Besides major players like Boeing and Lockheed, there are many others.  

This AP article identifies sources of Palestinian weapons:

“'The majority of their arms are of Russian, Chinese or Iranian origin, but North Korean weapons and those produced in former Warsaw Pact countries are also present in the arsenal,' said N.R. Jenzen-Jones, an expert in military arms who is director of the Australian-based Armament Research Services. "

 There are Israeli Jews and Palestinians who would like a two state solution with peace and cooperation between the two

My conclusion is that both parties have legitimate claims to independent states in the land between the river and the sea.  I don't see an easy path to that option.  In fact the only paths I see now are in people's imaginations.  Here are visions of peaceful coexistence, one Israeli, one Palestinian.  : 

Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib     https://twitter.com/afalkhatib/status/1782241783843553568

Haggai Matar   https://www.972mag.com/lament-israelis-gaza-october-7/

Whether the voices of fear and anger will continue to dominate or whether some versions along the lines these two call for is possible, only time will tell.  

Finally, are students wrong to protest against the killings in Gaza?  Absolutely not.  Are they protesting perfectly?  Of course not.  Protest organizers often lose control of the protests they've organized.  Let's not get distracted from the issue they are protesting - the slaughter of almost 40,000 civilians, mostly women and children.  And administrators and police groups are reacting to them the same way administrators and police groups reacted to the anti-war demonstrations in the US in the 1960s and 70s.  Four students were shot by National Guard troops at Kent State University on May 4, 1970.  From the pictures I'm seeing of current demonstrations, Kent State might well be repeated soon.  Let's hope not.  


Tuesday, June 20, 2023

Redistricting Board Meets Thursday, June 22, At 12:30pm To Discuss Plaintiff Legal Reimbursement

I got an email from the Alaska Redistricting Board (I subscribed to the email list long ago) announcing a zoom meeting Thursday to discuss potential settlements regarding attorney's fees and costs.  From the Board:

"Date: Thursday June 22, 2023
Time: 12:30pm
Place: 
https://us06web.zoom.us/j/82969365602?pwd=T2ozcno4dWFFQnc3eFN0WmlDYVFSZz09

Agenda

  1. Call to Order and Establish Quorum

  2. Adoption of Agenda

  3. Adoption of Minutes

  4. Executive Session to meet with the Board’s counsel.

    Pursuant to AS 44.62.310(1) and (4), the Board will discuss legal strategy and potential settlement regarding attorney’s fees and costs.

  5. Adjournment"

The draft Minutes of the last meeting are also linked.


I've emailed the following suggestions to the Board:

"A couple of suggestions, since there's no public testimony:

1.  Before going into ES, please have the Board announce which plaintiffs still have outstanding legal fee requests, which ones will be discussed, and which have already been finalized or decided by the courts.  Also clarify that there are claims for both the Superior Court and the Supreme Court.
2.  Change adjournment to Item 6 and change item 5 to:  "Return to Public Session:  Vote on any decisions regarding issues discussed in ES."  (My understanding is the Board has to do all the voting in public.) 

"An executive session is not a stand-alone, or secret meeting; it is a part of a public meeting in which the public may be temporarily excluded for certain purposes. Actions are not taken during executive sessions. A decision by a governing body, such as a city council, to conduct any step in the deliberation process outside of the public forum must weigh the public interest in the right-to-know against any potential harm that could result from open deliberation. The governing body may, at its discretion, invite others into its executive session."   https://www.commerce.alaska.gov/web/dcra/LocalGovernmentResourceDesk/LocalGovernmentElectedOfficials/MeetingsHeldinExecutiveSession.aspx

"Is secret ballot voting allowed under the act?
Almost always, no. In addition to requiring that deliberations of a governing body be open to the public, the act also requires that the vote shall be conducted in such a manner that the public may know the vote of each person entitled to vote, including meetings conducted by teleconference. The one exception is organizational meetings of a governing body to elect members to various offices, which are exempted from the requirement that the vote of each member be made public (AS 44.62. 310(a))."
https://dev.gov.alaska.gov/wp-content/uploads/Open-Meetings-Act.pdf

I understand they will be talking about settlements with at least Girdwood plaintiff attorneys.  That implies they will potentially be discussing a range of dollar amounts the Board is willing pay in settlements.  Revealing that range does somewhat compromise the Board attorney's ability to negotiate.  But I have three thoughts:
  1. Plaintiffs who successfully argued before the Superior and Supreme Courts resulting in significant changes should be awarded attorney fees and costs because they've done a service to the Alaska.  The Alaska constitution anticipates the public has such a role to play by giving any Alaskan the right to challenge a Redistrict Board's Proclamation Plan.  
  2. Based on the Board's budget as of November 2022, the Board should have enough money left over.  
  3. At the very least, in public session, the Board should announce the nature of their decision (ie Should the attorney negotiate with the plaintiffs be authorized to settle within the range the Board discussed in ES?) and then vote.

Friday, June 16, 2023

Alaska Redistricting Board Done Mapping - Board & Girdwood Plaintiffs Trying To Wrap Things Up

[Warning:  After points 1 and 2, I suspect only those really interested in Board trivia will be able to keep their eyes open.  Even I'm having trouble getting everything straight.  Be careful to note when I'm talking about the Superior Court and when the Supreme Court.  That was a wrinkle I hadn't thought about.]


Board activity on two fronts in the last couple of days:

1.  The maps are done.  Wednesday was the last day of the 30 day period to challenge the final Proclamation Plan.  There were no challenges.  So the Plan that was used for the 2022 election becomes the permanent plan.

2.  There are still questions about attorney fees for the Girdwood plaintiffs. (I thought other attorney fees issues were dealt with after the Interim Plan was approved, but it appears from Peter Torkelson's email that they might have been on hold too.) The Girdwood plaintiffs are the folks whose challenge led to the Supreme Court saying the Eagle River pairings were unconstitutional partisan gerrymandering in the second round.  

This all gets a little complicated.  I started by asking what I thought was a straightforward question about why the Board filed an objection to the request for fee reimbursement when Board Member Borromeo had said the decision to object should be discussed in Executive Session.  They didn't go into ES at the last meeting (when they approved the Permanent Plan) and there hasn't been a meeting since then.  .  

Looking at the Docket, it seems the Board's objection was only filed on June 2, 2023, more than two weeks after the Board met to approve the Final Proclamation Plan.  

Dkt#Document
Item
StatusDate Filed or IssuedFiled or Issued By
40Order Re: 39, Motion to Extend Time to File Reply to OppositionDistributed6/16/2023Court
39Motion to Extend Time to File Reply to OppositionFiled6/16/2023Theiss, Louis
38Opposition Re: 37, Motion for Attorney's FeesFiled6/2/2023Alaska Redistricting Board
37Motion for Attorney's FeesFiled5/12/2023Theiss, Louis

 



 Board Executive Director Peter Torkelson emailed this response:

"The Girdwood fee objection was filed, along with all the others, to meet the Supreme Court's earlier deadline and does not preclude the Board from negotiating one or more settlements." 
That clarified some things, and another email said that there was a deadline to file an objection and the Board attorney, I'm assuming here, had to file something by the deadline or forfeit the right to object.  

The Board had postponed meeting until they knew whether there were any court challenges to the map.  The deadline for that was, as I said above, Wednesday.  There were none.  So now the Board can meet.  No challenges to discuss, but there's the reimbursement of attorneys fees to discuss.  

There are other complications too.  There are attorney fees for the Superior Court which, if I understand this right, will be decided by the Superior Court.  Then there are attorney fees for the Supreme Court which will be decided by the Supreme Court.  

I also reached out to Mike Schechter, one of the attorneys for the Girdwood plaintiffs.  

He said the Board and the Plaintiffs are working together on the schedule for the Superior court..
"The schedule that the parties are jointly proposing to the superior court:
Attorney fee briefs are due July 25. Board's oppositions due August 22. Reply Briefs due September 5."

Meanwhile, today (Friday June 16) the Supreme Court gave the Girdwood Plaintiffs until June 30  to reply to the Board's opposition motion.  Of the files listed above on the Docket above, only today's Court order had a link allowing me to see the actual document. 


Just to be as clear as possible, above is today's SUPREME COURT order.  

Below is the joint motion to the SUPERIOR COURT.  (Although it's signed by the Board attorneys, Mike Schechter assured me it's from the plaintiffs as well.)






So the 2010 Redistricting Board work is slowly moving to closure.  

Sunday, June 04, 2023

It's NOT Better To Ask Forgiveness . . . Why The Assembly Shouldn't Settle With Roger Hickel

Roger Hickel's construction company filed suit against the Municipality of Anchorage.

"In its lawsuit, Hickel says it wants to be paid for the nearly $2.5 million of work it did last year, plus damages to be determined."  (From Alaska Public Media)

He claims he had a contract with the Municipality to do the work and now he's not getting paid.  

The problem is that his contract wasn't valid because it had never been approved by the Assembly.

"It started last year when the administration authorized Hickel to begin construction without Assembly authorization. That came to light last fall, and the Anchorage Assembly suspended the project." (same APM article.)

Last September, the Mayor brought a contract amendment to the Assembly.  

"On March 21, 2022, MOA Purchasing approved a Contract with RHC for Pre-

11 Construction Management (CM) services for the MOA Navigation Center as the

12 result of Request for Proposal 2022P007. Of the two proposals received,

13 reviewed, and evaluated, RHC received the highest score. The contract amount

14 was $50,000.00 and the period of performance was through December 31, 2022.

15 M&O is now requesting approval of the addition of General Contractor (GC)

16 construction services at a Not to Exceed (NTE) cost of $4,900,000.00 and a

17 contract extension through June 30, 2023. This will increase the contract amount

18 from $50,000.00 to $4,950,000.00."


But the Assembly rejected the extension of the contract:

"In a 9-3 vote, members rejected the administration’s request for $4.9 million so the city could proceed with the project. Assembly members Randy Sulte, Jamie Allard and Kevin Cross voted to approve it."

Why?  Because the Mayor had earlier secretly approved the contract without getting the Assembly's approval for the contract extension, which is required.  

"The vote came weeks after the revelation that, against city code, Bronson officials authorized millions in construction work over the summer without first getting the required Assembly approval to increase the contract with Roger Hickel Contracting by the $4.9 million. Work had begun weeks before Bronson officials in early September sent a request to the Assembly to change the contract."

“The municipality and the contractor have both been operating in good faith based on no less than three Assembly actions that appropriated to the tune of $9 million towards this project,” Municipal Manager Amy Demboski said. “It was our intent — we thought we were collaboratively working with the Assembly.” 

 About that 'good faith.'  Amy Demboski is the City Manager who a short time later, after she was fired by the Mayor, published a 'scathing letter' with a long list of things the Mayor had done very much in bad faith.

"It's better to ask forgiveness than permission" is a phrase often uttered in large bureaucracies when someone is proposing to skip over the rules.  The most positive spin would be that the complication of such organizations often frustrates folks to the point that they think it's easier to just plow ahead, without jumping through all the hoops to get permission.  But on the negative side, it's interpreted to mean 'since we aren't likely to get permission, let's just do it and it will be too late for them to do anything about it.'

The latter would seem to be what happened here.  There weren't that many hoops at the Municipality.  They just had to get the Assembly's approval.  But the Assembly had serious misgivings about the Mayor's project and there was a good chance they wouldn't approve it.  

We know the Mayor's office had to know they needed the Assembly's approval.  Contract approval is a very important and frequent part of running the Municipality.  The requirements for contract approval are one of the first things a Mayor needs to know.   There were still some pre-Bronson era employees who knew the rules and would have mentioned this.  At the very least, the Municipal Manager, Amy Demboski, a former Assembly member, knew well that the Assembly's approval was required.   

And Hickel?

Roger Hickel's LinkedIn Page says he's been doing construction in Anchorage for 28 years.


His construction company's website identifies over a dozen civil projects done for the MOA and the State of Alaska.  (I couldn't fit them all in one screen shot) And over 28 years he's done many, many such projects.


He also has the MOA and State of Alaska on his list of repeat customers among other government entities like the School District and the University of Alaska Anchorage. 

A FEW OF OUR REPEAT CLIENTS

Walmart

Nordstrom

Home Depot

Lowe’s

United Parcel Service

Federal Express

Army and Air Force Exchange Services

Food Services of America, NC Machinery

Providence Alaska Medical Center

Anchorage School District

Alaska Pacific University

University of Alaska

State of Alaska

the Municipality of Anchorage

Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium

Alaska Regional Hospital

As an Anchorage contractor for over 28 years with numerous contracts with the MOA of various sized projects, there is no way that Hickel didn't know that the contract extensions over a certain amount required the Assembly's approval.  You don't do this many government construction projects without knowing the rules of the Muni and the State, without knowing the cost limits that require additional approval, without experts in your office who do this routinely.  

And he knew the project was controversial.  That it might not get the approval.  He and the mayor may have convinced themselves the project was critical to solve the Anchorage homelessness situation, but they still knew it required the Assembly's permission.  

The Assembly should call their bluff.  Let them go to court.  Let them explain why they went ahead without the Assembly's approval before a judge and a jury.  My guess is that the judge and jury will understand they were taking a calculated risk.  That the project was controversial and not likely to get the Assembly's approval.  That they were betting that moving the project ahead would force the Assembly to approve a project that they had serious questions about.  

I'm not a betting man, but I take the rule of law seriously.  I urge the Assembly to be firm.  To hold the Mayor and the contractor accountable for breaking the Municipal ordinance.  To let a jury decide.  I'm fairly confident that going to court will cause Hickel to settle for a much lower sum from the Muni.  And that a jury would side with the Assembly.  


Sunday, May 14, 2023

Hoping For A Short, Boring Redistricting Board Meeting Monday - Here's Why

Quick Take:  The Board's job Monday is to either accept the Interim Plan as the Permanent Plan OR to 'show cause' why it shouldn't be the Permanent Plan.  

What does "show cause" mean?  Basically, it means they need to give good legal and/or factual reasons why, in this case, the Interim Plan, shouldn't be adopted.  

If the Board Monday has no good reasons to object to adopting the Interim Plan as the Permanent Plan until the next redistricting process in ten years (eight years now), it will be a short meeting.

If Board members feel the need to change the Interim Plan, I expect they will consult with the Board's attorney on how to do this and whether it is likely to succeed. Some, of that discussion, if not all of it, will (but not necessarily should) be held in Executive Session.  (The courts felt they overdid the Executive Session leading up the the Interim Plan.)

If they decide that they want to "show cause"  I expect they will either discuss their reasons, and/or adjourn to work on those reasons.  They may just ask the attorney to write up their response to be voted on at a later meeting.  This will then be sent to the Superior Court for consideration.  

At least, that's how I understand this.  


Background:  I don't like to repeat myself, but this opening is a quick background for people who haven't watched this saga too closely.  If you know this pretty well, just skip on down.  

Back in May 2022 the Alaska Supreme Court said the plan the Alaska Redistricting Board had approved (the vote was 3-2) was unconstitutional partisan gerrymandering.  They sent it back to the Board through the Superior Court, ordering the Board to approve the Option 2 plan that the Board considered, but had not approved.  This, then would be the Interim Plan for the November 2022 election.  Given the looming deadline for candidates to file for office, the Supreme Court just couldn't wait for the Board to come up with a new plan on their own.  More recently, the Supreme Court completed its Opinion - a long document that looks at all the issues it had raised regarding the Board's original plan (thrown out by the Court), and its second plan (which was also thrown out.)  

Actually, that's an oversimplification.  The first plan, with a couple of changes, was essentially approved WITH THE EXCEPTION of some Senate seats in Anchorage.  So, the Interim plan for all 40 House seats, as understand this, is settled. 

Purpose of Monday's Meeting From The Supreme Court's Opinion

The Supreme Court's Opinion ended this way:

"IX. FINAL REMEDY

After the second remand, the Board adopted the Option 2 proclamation plan as the 2022 elections interim plan.240 The question of a final redistricting plan for the

[I've cut out footnotes]

decade remains. Having concluded that the Board engaged in unconstitutional gerrymandering in its initial final redistricting plan and that the Board then did so again in its amended final redistricting plan, our remanding for yet another redistricting plan may be questioned. Indeed, by clear implication article VI, section 11 authorizes courts to mandate a redistricting plan when, after a remand, the Board develops a new plan that is declared invalid.241 But we will remand out of respect for the Board’s constitutional role in redistricting.

Given that the Board adopted the current interim redistricting plan for its final plan deliberations — confirming the Board’s belief that the interim plan is constitutional — and given that Alaska’s voters have not had a chance to raise challenges to that plan in the superior court:

We REMAND for the superior court to order that the Board shall have 90 days to show cause why the interim redistricting plan should not be the Board’s final redistricting plan for the 2020 redistricting cycle:

A. Upon a showing by the Board of good cause for a remand, the superior court shall REMAND to the Board for another round of redistricting efforts; or

B. Absent a showing by the Board of good cause for a remand, the superior court shall direct the Board to approve the interim redistricting plan as its final redistricting plan, allowing any legal challenges to that plan to be filed in superior court in the normal course."  [Red emphasis added.]


Basically the court said:

  1. You had two final options last year - Option 3A (which you adopted, but we found unconstitutional) and Option 2.
  2. We told you to adopt Option 2 as the Interim Plan.  
  3. You approved Option 2, thus implying you thought it was a constitutional plan.  [Though some Board members might say they had no choice given the time constraints.  If they hadn't approved it, I suspect the Court would have imposed it anyway.]
  4. You now have 90 days to give a good reason why the Interim Plan should NOT be the final plan. (The Opinion was dated April 21, 2023.  So 90 days is just about July 21, 2023.)
  5. If the Superior Court deems your objection to be a worthy objection, then that Court will remand (give back) to the Board, the task of further changes to the map.  
  6. If you do not 'show good cause' for making further changes, the Interim Plan becomes the Permanent Plan
  7. If you show cause but the Superior, and then the Supreme Court, reject your argument, the Interim Plan becomes the Permanent Plan.  
  8. Once the Permanent Plan is in place, the public will have one more opportunity to challenge the plan.  My understanding of the various court rulings and the Board's public musings, all the 40 House seats and all but a few Anchorage Senate seats are already fixed. The period to challenge them was within 30 days of the original Proclamation Plan.  There were challenges to some other parts of the map and there were other parts of the map that no one challenged.  The only parts of the map that were still in dispute in May 2022 were a few Anchorage area Senate seats.  

Reading The Rules Carefully Is Always A Good Idea

When I was writing this post in my head, I was thinking the Board, on Monday, could either agree to leave things as they are (the Interim Plan becomes the Permanent Plan) or try to tinker with the map.  But rereading the Court's Final Remedy section of the Opinion, the first step is to 'show cause' and get the courts to agree there is cause before anyone is authorized to adjust any Anchorage Senate seats.  

What Cause Might The Board Show?

I don't see any cause that the Board could put forth.  But I'm not an attorney and there are always undetected cards they seem to be able to pull out of forgotten statutes and old cases upon which to make a claim.  

Here's how I see it:
  1. The Superior and Supreme Courts have both agreed that the Interim Plan was Constitutional.
  2. The Board, by approving the Interim Plan last May, implied they saw it as Constitutional. (They aren't supposed to approve a plan they don't think is constitutional.)
So the Board would be hard pressed to argue the plan isn't constitutional.
At that point, what else could they argue?  That it's constitutional, but they have a better plan?  I think it's too late for that.  

In its rulings about the Eagle River and Skagway Senate pairings, the supreme court discussed the concept of 'taking a hard look' at public testimony.  It ruled with the superior court and against the Board on this ground in Eagle River because the Board violated another constitutional requirement of districts
"specifically for unconstitutional political gerrymandering." (Court Opinion, p. 43)

However, in the Skagway case it ruled against the superior court ruling on 'taking a hard look' at public testimony, because
". . .if public comments merely reflect preferences for district boundaries without implicating substantive redistricting requirements, drawing district boundaries based on demonstrated substantive redistricting requirements and not the “weight of public comment” likely would not violate the hard look requirement. We nonetheless note that a Board’s failure to follow a clear majority preference between two otherwise equally constitutional legislative districts under article VI, section 6 may be evidence supporting a gerrymandering claim."
But the court ruled that House Districts 3 and 4 were unconstitutional based solely on its “weight of public testimony” approach to the hard look analysis. Because the court otherwise agreed substantive redistricting requirements were satisfied and no salient problems were raised that the Board failed to consider, we reverse the court’s invalidation of House Districts 3 and 4 and its accompanying remand to the Board." (Opinion, p. 43-44)
It would seem that same logic would be applicable here.  Just because some Board members might prefer different pairings, that's not good enough to tamper with an already constitutional map.  The Board isn't exactly 'the public.'  However, in this situation, if the Board wants to protest against Senate pairings that the courts and the Board have already agreed are constitutional, it would seem to be up against a similar obstacle the public is up against if it "merely reflects preferences for district boundaries without implicating substantive redistricting requirements."

Furthermore, the only (true) reasons the Board majority might want to make changes, as I see it, would be to try to give Republicans some advantage they don't have with the current plan, or to mess with the Democrats, by creating new Senate pairings which would force Democratic incumbents to run against each other.    

Why do I say that?  

1.  There are only a few districts, as I understand this, that are still in play.  
    1. At this point, all 40 House districts are set.  They've been approved and the time for the public to challenge them is over.
    2. The only districts that could be in play now are a couple of northeast Anchorage Senate seats.  I posted the map below and incumbent lists in my previous post, but it's worth looking at again.  



I've circled the Senate seats that could possibly be in play.  
The House seats can't be changed, 
they can only be paired differently to create different Senate seats.  Below are the incumbents 
of the House and Senate seats.  I'd note these are the district numbers in the Interim Plan.  



House Seats Senate Seats
17 - Zack Fields - DemocratI - Loki Tobin - Democrat 
18 - Cliff Groh - DemocratJ - Forrest Dunbar - Democrat
19 - Genevieve Mina - Democrat       K - Bill Wielechowski - Democrat
20 - Andrew Gray - Democrat
21 - Donna Mears - Democrat
22 - Stanley Wright - Republican

2.  Why are these the only ones in play?  Because the rest of the map was approved.  The only changes were to pair the two Eagle River house districts into one Senate district.  That left district 18 an orphan and it was paired with downtown district 17. And an orphan South Anchorage district. If they do any changes it would be to the Senate pairings in the circle - and maybe with a ripple effect beyond - because everything else was locked down and approved.  (District 9 was also an orphan district, when the two Eagle River districts were paired, but I haven't even considered that the Board might want to mess around with that district.) (Actually, my description suggests the court changed Map 3B.  In fact, they adopted Map 2, the map the Board did not choose.  So these were the pairings on that map.)

3.  As you can see, the Senate seats in this area are held by Democrats.  And the six key House seats are held by five Democrats and one Republican.  

4.  The Board majority argued long and loud, but short of actual facts or data, that JBER, the military base shouldn't be paired with 'liberal' downtown. 
"The Board cited no evidence, aside from its own speculation, that JBER is a community of interest; in any case, there was no showing that the House district encompassing the populated portion of the military base as a whole would tend to share political preferences more closely with an Eagle River House district than with the downtown Anchorage House district. We thus reject the Board’s argument that concerns about JBER justify splitting Eagle River."  (Opinion p. 105)
In fact, the Board had already put  JBER in a house district with much more liberal Government Hill and other north and northeast Anchorage neighborhoods.  

Edited from Elections page to fit in one image

Note:  This was a ranked choice vote.  Most, if not all of Franks' votes had Groh as second choice.  Also, only 6% of the registered voters on JBER even voted.  

In the 2022 House District 18 house election, the Democrats got 55% of the vote and the Republican got 44%.  HD 18 voted for Democrat Mary Peltola for US House and for Democrat Zak Fields for state Senate.  
So all the arguments that Board members Marcum and Simpson made about how terrible it would be to combine the JBER district (as they called District 18) with liberal downtown was hot air.  They'd already put JBER into a House district that was more liberal than the Base.  And that elected a Democrat.  

5.  But they may think that pairing House District 22, which did elect a Republican to the state House, with their so called JBER district (18) would result in a Republican Senate seat.  And so they may want to try to do that.  This would also mean finding other Senate pairings for the orphaned House seats - 18 and 21, which aren't contiguous, so it would force even more changes.  

6.  But the District 22 Republican only won by 72 votes out of 3700 votes.  Not really a GOP stronghold.  And with the electoral reality of District 18 (the one including JBER) as a strong Democratic district.  The resultant Senate seat would still be held by a Democrat. 

7.  But the other new Senate pairings that pairing 18 with 22 would force, they could force a two or more Democratic Senate incumbents to run against each other.  

8.  But this would all be so transparently partisan gerrymandering again that neither the superior nor the supreme court would accept it.  

9.  They only reason the Board majority might do something like this would be brazen shamelessness.  After all with Trump and Santos and DeSantis as models and the rest of the Republicans either supporting them or at least staying quiet, this would not be a big step for the Alaskan GOP to take.  
It wouldn't cost them anything, and there's the possibility it would work.  

10.  But I think it's just too obvious.  Even if Marcum and Simpson were willing to try this, I suspect the third Republican on the board, Chair John Binkley has more integrity than that.  He's had time to think this over and see it would merely waste even more public funds.  While he went along the first rounds, now it's pretty clear that the courts won't support this.  

11.  And their 'cause' also needs to show why any new plan is worth the disruption to voters and elected officials having to adjust themselves to new electoral districts.

12.  I'd also draw your attention to these words in the court's "Final Remedy" quoted above:  
"Indeed, by clear implication article VI, section 11 authorizes courts to mandate a redistricting plan when, after a remand, the Board develops a new plan that is declared invalid.241 But we will remand out of respect for the Board’s constitutional role in redistricting."

The court is saying, "We have the power to simply mandate a plan.  But out of respect for the institution of the Board (not necessarily for this particular Board) we'll give the Board one more shot to do this right."





That's my take on what will happen Monday.  There could be some other scheme Randy Ruederich has hatched for the Board to try.  But ultimately, the courts will be looking very carefully and I don't see any justifications the Board could make to oppose making the Interim Plan the Permanent Plan that the courts would accept.  

But even if the Board votes to make the Interim Plan the Permanent Plan, the public will still have thirty days to challenge it in court.  But this wouldn't be on the State's dime, and with the Board joining the superior and supreme courts, it would take some ingenious soul to find a loophole here.  


 




Tuesday, May 09, 2023

The Alaska Redistricting Board Meets Monday May 15 To Decide To Approve Interim Plan As Final Plan - Or Not [UPDATED]

 

Alaska Redistricting Board Meeting, May 15 at 1pm

The Alaska Redistricting Board will meet at the Anchorage Legislative Information Office's Denali Conference room, 1st floor.  Live stream will be available at: http://akl.tv

Public Testimony will be taken in-person, via Dial-in Teleconference, by email to: testimony@akredistrict.org

Or from the Board website's public comment form here: https://www.akredistrict.org/map-comment/

When:
 - Monday, May 15, starting at 1 pm.

Where:
 -  Anchorage Legislative Information Office
 - 1500 W. Benson Blvd, Anchorage
 - Live stream: http://akl.tv
 - Teleconference

Teleconference public listen-in and testimony phone numbers:
 - Anchorage: 563-9085
 - Juneau: 586-9085
 - Other: 844-586-9085

 

Agenda

  1. Call to Order and Establish Quorum

  2. Adoption of Agenda

  3. New member swearing in, pending appointment

  4. Adoption of Minutes

  5. Public Testimony

  6. Review by Legal Counsel of Alaska Supreme Court Decision

    In the Matter of the 2021 Redistricting Cases, April 21, 2023

  7. Consideration of Adoption of Interim 2022 Plan as Final 2023 Redistricting Plan

  8. Board member comments

  9. Adjournment

Board Member Bethany Marcum resigned from the Board [on March 23, 2023] after being appointed to the Board of Regents [on January 23, 2023] by the governor.  However, her appointment was not approved by the Alaska legislature today.  So it's possible she might be reappointed to the Redistricting Board.  

[UPDATE May 11, 2023: The governor reappointed her to the Redistricting Board on May 9, 2023]

In one sense, that would be a good appointment because she has been through the whole Redistricting process.  However, she was one of the most partisan Board members voting twice for splitting Eagle River into two Senate seats.  Both those efforts were deemed unconstitutional gerrymandering by the Alaska Supreme Court.  

The Board's decision Monday will be whether to approve the Interim Redistricting Plan (imposed by the Supreme Court in May 2022) as the Permanent Plan.  The Court imposed this interim plan after rejecting the Board's plan because there wasn't time for the Board to devise a new plan to meet the deadline for candidates filing for office.  

Most of the 40 House seats and 20 Senate seats are already approved and locked in.  There really isn't much the Board could tinker with.  Just a couple of new house pairings to make new Senate seats in Northeast Anchorage would be my guess.  Since changing districts is always a bit confusing to voters, there is no real reason to make the changes except as a last ditch effort to mess with the legislators in those seats.  

From my perspective, approving the interim plan as the permanent plan would be the best decision for the state and for the voters  and for would-be candidates in the districts that could be played with.  


I've circled the Senate seats that could possibly be in play.  The House seats can't be changed, they can only be paired differently to create different Senate seats.  Below are the incumbents of the House and Senate seats.  

House Seats  Senate Seats
17 - Zack Fields - DemocratI - Loki Tobin - Democrat 
18 - Cliff Groh - Democrat J - Forrest Dunbar - Democrat
19 - Genevieve Mina - Democrat        K - Bill Wielechowski - Democrat
20 - Andrew Gray - Democrat
21 - Donna Mears - Democrat
22 - Stanley Wright - Republican


All the seats except one House seat has a Democratic incumbent.  The only real purpose of rearranging  the House pairings into new Senate seats would be to put Democratic incumbents in competition with each other and shake things up a bit.  
I don't think the Superior Court or the Supreme Court would approve such an action.  It would be seen, once again, as partisan gerrymandering.  

But the Republican majority on the Board did this twice before and there's no way of holding them accountable if they try it again.  It will just waste public monies to go through new court hearings and, if actually accepted by the Supreme Court, in redoing state maps and confusing voters in those districts.  


NOTE:  I'm slowly working on a post that looks at the Alaska Supreme Court's recent Opinion that explains their reasoning for the decisions last year that found the Board majority had committed partisan gerrymandering.  The Court took its time debating and writing its decision because it really isn't urgent. It's a guide for the 2030 Redistricting Board.  And I'm taking the same approach.  It's not urgent.  But I'll have something up before the end of summer, assuming that this Board meeting next week doesn't do something that will require the Court to add new discussions.  

I would note that the Court also said that once the Permanent Plan is approved by the Board, the public will have 30 days to challenge it.  I understood that to mean if they approve the Interim Plan as the new Permanent Plan.  If they do something else, that too would be challengeable.  But I also understand that those challenges are limited to the Anchorage Senate pairing changes.  The rest of the map remains the same and those challenges were already heard.  

All my redistricting posts are indexed on the Redistricting tab just below the What Do I Know? Banner on top of the blog.  You can also get to it here.  There's also a tab for the 2010 Redistricting process.

Monday, April 24, 2023

Supreme Court's Redistricting Opinion Next Steps. Is Marcum Still On The Board?

The Alaska Supreme Court finally issued its Opinion explaining its reasoning for its earlier Orders.  (Three its in one sentence, sorry, I don't have time to make this pretty.)  See this post for more.  The immediate consequence of the decision is that the Alaska Redistricting Board was given 90 days to object to keeping the interim plan in place for the next ten years.  

For those not up on all these details - probably most people - the Court ruled the Board's last two plans  faulty because of gerrymandering.  So the court made a change in the Board's plan for the 2022 election.   The deadline for candidates to file to run for office was nearing and they needed to know what districts they would be running in.  So, that was the interim plan.  

Most of the state map has been approved and won't be affected.  There are only a few house districts in north Anchorage that could possibly be realigned into different Senate seats.  There is no way the court will allow the Board to make changes that would give Republicans more power in the legislature.  So it would seem that remanding the interim plan back to the Board is just a courtesy, maybe a way for the court to allow the Board to technically approve this plan as the actual plan for the next ten years. 

But that means the Board has to 

  1. Reconvene and meet to 
    1. approve the interim plan as the final plan, or
    2. come up with an alternative within those very narrow options they have left and send it with a rationale back to the court
  2. Do nothing and let the 90 days and let the interim plan become the final plan by default

Is Bethany Marcum still on the Board?
At the Alaska Press Club Conference Friday and Saturday, the Court's decision, which was announced Friday morning, was a big topic among some of the journalists who have reported on the Redistricting Board.  
One of the questions that came up was whether Board Member Bethany Marcum was still on the Board.  She's been nominated to the University of Alaska Board of Regents and some speculated that would mean she was off the Board. 

So I emailed Peter Torkelson who still is the Executive Director for the Board.  I asked 
  • Is Marcum still on the Board?
  • If not, since Governor appointed her, would he be appointing a new member?
  • Are all the other members still on the Board?
Peter's normal quick response was that Marcum had resigned on March 23, 2023.  And the legal advisors believe that since the Governor appointed her, he would be the person legally entitled to appoint her successor.  He pointed out that Governor Parnell did that in 2011 for another Board member.  (Even though I covered the Board, I don't remember that at all.  But perhaps it happened early in the process.  I didn't start covering them until about March 2011.)  He didn't mention other members so I assume they are all still officially on the Board.

A new member could be someone who followed the process closely - say a Randy Ruedrich - but there aren't too many people who would really understand all the details and nuances of what the Board has been through.  I mention Randy even though the Court pointed out that the Constitution requires that appointments be made without regard to political party.  I simply don't think that Governor Dunleavy is capable of appointing someone who isn't committed to Dunleavy's political goals.  Unless he believes, as I do here, that there really aren't any changes to be legally made that would make a difference except to shake up a couple of districts and the incumbents of those districts.  

The Board's Eagle River Senate decisions, which passed 3-2, and were vigorously and loudly objected to by the minority members Banke and  Borromeo, were judged by the Court to be unconstitutional gerrymandering.  

I suspect the most dignified thing for the Board to do now would be to meet and vote to endorse the interim plan as the final plan and send their approval to the Supreme Court.  Board Members Marcum and Simpson were the most partisan Republican promoters of the gerrymandering.  The third Republican on the Board, John Simpson, went along with that, but I think he was less committed to that decision than the other two.  

I'd note that during the 2010 Redistricting process I asked then Board Attorney Mike White about a new plan being challenged on gerrymandering grounds.  His reply was that no plan had ever been overturned because of political gerrymandering and he wasn't worried.  Well, this round, the Supreme Court has definitively said that partisan gerrymandering is unconstitutional.  

I'm slowly reading through the Court's Opinion.  My present plan is read through the Opinion and identify what I see as the key points that are new.  Then I want to pull up the post(s?) I've written about what I hoped the Court would address.  Then I can see if they addressed all the issues I was concerned about.  So far, they have addressed the issue of the Governor intentionally appointing Republicans to the Board.  And they weren't just Republicans, they were hard core Republicans with a history of working with the Republican Party.  

I was concerned about how blatant the political appointments were this time round and that if the Court didn't address it, it would become an unenforceable part of the Constitution.  But they did address it - but I have to read more of the Opinion to see how it informs their conclusions.  I suspect it played a role in their deciding that the Eagle River Senate pairings were politically motivated.  

We'll see.  Meanwhile my previous post extracts the outline of their Opinion (all the headings) so you can have something like a Table of Contents of the Opinion.  There's also a link to the decision.  

Just one more piece of trivia.  I've tried to pay attention to follow the Court's language.  Particularly regarding "decisions," "orders," and "opinions."  So I checked online and here's what Cornell's Law School says:

  • An order tells the parties to a case or cases something that they should do.  Orders can deal with housekeeping matters, such as scheduling or permission to file a brief, or with something substantive and important, such as whether the case will be dismissed or not.  An order may accompany an opinion or opinions, but if it does not, it tends to be brief and not to offer reasons. It may deal with one or more cases, and may dispose of those cases or not.
  • decision is a loose term for the set of opinions that accompany an order, combined with that order.  There may be more than one case associated with a particular decision.     
  • An opinion is a general term describing the written views of a judge or judges with respect to a particular order.  Not all orders--including important orders, and including in both the district courts and the courts of appeals--have opinions.  A single order by a court might produce a zero or more majority opinions, zero or more concurring opinions, zero or more dissenting opinions, and zero or more opinions that concur in part and dissent in part.  It is also possible that a decision produces other documents that are not opinions -- for example, a syllabus, appendix, or summary describing all the other documents related to the decision.

What we got Friday was an Opinion.  

Wednesday, June 01, 2022

AK Redistricting - What's Next? Court Decisions And . . .?

The Supreme Court upheld the Superior Court's conclusion that the Board majority had gerrymandered once again and lifted the stay on the order for the Board to adopt Option 2 for the 2022 election.  But the Supreme Court did NOT lift the stay on having the Board adopt a permanent map for the rest of the decade.  

So, what's happening next?  There are two key factors:

  1. What possible map other than the interim one (Option 2) could the Board come up with that would meet the narrow guidelines of the Superior Court?  
  2. When is the Supreme Court going to weigh in?


First let's look at the possible maps, and then I'll share what I learned from the media liaison at the Supreme Court today.   

What possible maps other than option 2 could the Board draw that wouldn't be challenged?

My conclusion here is:  There isn't much wiggle room for the Board majority if they get the maps again.  First, they were told explicitly that the Senate Seat K (ER and South Muldoon) was intentionally gerrymandered and more vaguely that the two ER districts should be together.  They separated Seat K and put South Muldoon with North Muldoon.  But instead of pairing the two ER districts together, they left the Chugiak/ER district paired with JBER/Govt Hill and paired the other ER district with South Anchorage.  

The second time they were told to use Option 2, which also paired the two Muldoon districts, but paired the ER districts.  The Board minority (particularly member Marcum) REALLY wanted to keep Chugiak paired with JBER/Govt Hill.  But pairing the ER districts into one senate seat meant JBER got paired with another district in north downtown.  

I just don't see many choices for the Board now.  One of the instructions was to only make as many changes as necessary to fix the unconstitutional gerrymandering.  So there are a couple of Anchorage Bowl districts bordering JBER that could be played with, but I don't see any big payoff for anyone.  (I could be missing some incumbent pairing possibly.)  

That's a long way of saying the 2022 interim map seems like the only map that makes sense for the rest of the decade.  The Board majority could make a couple of Senate pairing changes just to show they won't be stuck with the Court order completely, but it would really be a waste of time and it would mess up incumbents and voters to change their Senate seats just out of spite.  

For those who want more detail about the changes, I've prepared the table below and the key parts of the 2021 map and the May 2022 map below.


This really isn't too difficult a problem.  But because we've gone through three different maps that caused a number of Anchorage House Districts to change numbers, it's tricky to describe.  So, let's look at the changes in the Anchorage House District numbers.  

NOTE
  • Senate districts are made by pairing two House Districts
  • No House districts changed boundaries
  • Some did change numbers
  • Some did change Senate Seat pairing partners
I tried to make a chart showing which districts changed numbers, which changed Senate pairings, and which stayed the same.  I've used color to illustrate the changes.  I suggest you look at the chart, then look below the chart for more explanation of the colors.  




[Explanation:  Column 1 is the 2021 Proclamation Plan.  These are the original house districts and Senate pairings (#s are the House designation, Letters are the Senate pairings).  Column one are all aqua
If nothing ever changes, like HD 11 F, it stays aqua throughout.  
If the # changes the top half of the cell goes salmon the first time and lime green the second time. (unless  it changes back to the original number,  then it goes back to aqua.).  HD 9 (South Anchorage) kept the same number in the April map, but got paired with ER the second time.  So it stayed aqua on top, but changed to yellow on the bottom.  In May it kept its number and got its old Senate partner back, so it goes back to all aqua.  
If the Senate pairing changes, the bottom goes yellow the first time and blue the second time (unless it goes back to the original pairing, the it goes back to aqua.)]

Yes, I realize this is way too complicated, and if you find a simpler way to show it, please share it with me.  Here's another way to do this:  look at the maps.  But some districts are too big to fit.  I'd note that I'm only looking at the 2021 map and the last map (Option 2, May 2022).  

I've drawn boundaries around the Senate pairings.  Red is JBER/Chugiak/ER;  Black is ER/South Muldoon.  Blue is North Muldoon and U-Med.  Green is Downton and North Mt. View.  That's eight house districts, four Senate seats that are in play.  




Below is the May 2022 Option 2 map being used for the 2022 election.  The two Eagle River districts are paired (black lines.)  JBER/Govt. Hill are together (red).  North and South Muldoon are together (blue).  Then there are two others paired together (the former pairing of North Muldoon with the former pairing of Downtown (lime green.)  

That's pretty much all they can play with.  The Eagle River Senate seat is set.  The Muldoon Senate seat is set.  If you switched JBER/Govt Hill from downtown to North Mountain View, then you'd have to use some other districts.  


That leaves us with what is the court going to do next?  I emailed the Supreme Court's media liaison, Meredith Montgomery.  Below are my questions and her answers.

Q1.  When I look at the appellate court Most Requested Cases page (https://appellate-records.courts.alaska.gov/CMSPublic/Search/Media)  there are two redistricting cases listed.  One says "opinion issued" and the other says "closed."  But the Justices said earlier they'd give us a longer document which explained their April decision.  Is that still coming?
A1. There are two supreme court redistricting cases as you point out.  S-18332 is the one where we had the oral argument in March and issued a short order with the "full opinion to follow" language.  We don't really have a better status than "opinion issued" to reflect what is happening, but the case is still open and we are waiting for the "full opinion" to be issued.  The second case, S-18419 came to us as a petition for review on Judge Matthews's order following remand from our March order, and the supreme court quickly affirmed Judge Matthews ruling on the Board's second map and since we did not retain jurisdiction over that part of the case it is "closed."  

Q2.   What about a further explanation of their May 24, 2022 Order?  Might the two be consolidated?
A2. I have no idea if the "opinion to follow" in S-18332 will discuss anything further in the S-18419 case.  

Q3.  In the May 24 Order, they left the stay on for Judge Matthews' remand for the Board to work on a new plan for post 2022 elections.  Is there another order going to come on that?  There isn't much wiggle room for the Board to make changes to the map for 2022.  Does leaving the stay imply just leaving the 2022 map as the permanent map? (I know you can't answer that, but just to let you know the sense of my questions now, but some better closure than what we have now is necessary.)
A3.  I understand the supreme court May 24 order basically says that the "option 2" map will be used for the 2022 general election, and (this is where we are all guessing) that after the full, explanatory decision is issued in S-18332, the court will lift the stay and allow the Board to get back to work.  Of course, depending on what the order says, any need for additional work by the Board could become moot.  


Q4.  Timing of any further decisions/orders:
     A.  One natural milestone is today's June 1 deadline for candidates to file.
     B.  Another possible milestone is after the November 2022 election
     C.  The urgency of the original decisions isn't as great now, however,
     D.  It would seem unreasonable to leave the Board and its staff dangling for too long.  Staff will look for other jobs and that would cripple the Board moving forward.  And Board members potentially could resign rather than leave their lives on hold that long.  That would raise issues of who would replace them.  The previous legislative appointers and the Supreme Court appointer have all departed those roles.  If the governor is not reelected, there would be protests over him appointing any new Board members.  This seems like a problem the Court could avoid by deciding sooner than later.  
A4.  You raise good points about timing, etc.  I'm sure the supreme court is aware of them as well.  

Conclusion

I like the part where Montgomery writes, "depending on what the order says, any need for additional work by the Board could become moot. "   

My look at the district changes and the maps tells me the Board doesn't have many options left and changing the maps yet again only confuses voters and makes candidates' lives more difficult.  It makes most sense to go with the 2020 interim map.  

I'm guessing the Court is taking advantage of having a little more time to rule.  And they also wanted to see how the Board would react.  The Board did as ordered.  There were a lot of issues raised in the trial and in the second round of challenges.  From whether ANCSA lines can be used as "local borders" when drawing district maps to clarifying how to avoid intentional gerrymandering and perhaps modifying the language the Board's attorney relied heavily on, that "everything within a borough or city boundaries is Socio-economically integrated."  And I personally would like them to make a distinction between contiguity in rural areas where there aren't roads and contiguity in urban areas where there are lots of roads.  

So, trying to craft all that language for future Boards to rely on and getting agreement among the Justices takes time.  But the other issues I raised - maintaining Board staff and the potentially nasty problems that could arise if a Board member resigned - also mean that the Court should get a decision out before too long.  

The first 'natural' deadline - June 1, 2022, when candidates must file to run for office in 2022 - is no past.  (Or will be by the time I get this posted.)  I would guess the next word from the Court will either be a decision with directions on what to do next (including possibly leaving 2022 interim plan in place) or a schedule for the Board so they don't hang in limbo too long and can plan their lives.