Showing posts with label election 2016. Show all posts
Showing posts with label election 2016. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 01, 2024

Trump Beat Biden In Alaska By Only 35K Votes, 234K Didn't Vote

In 2016, Trump beat Clinton, in Alaska, by 46,943 votes.  
From Alaska Div of Elections

While that seems like a lot of votes, there were 207,287 registered voters WHO DIDN'T VOTE.  That's fewer than the number who voted, but it's still a huge number.  60% of registered voters voted.  

A caveat:  Not all the people on the Alaska voter list still live in Alaska or are even alive.  But even if the ineligibles equaled 25% (1/4) of the list, that would still leave 150,000 people who didn't think it was important or convenient enough to vote.  

In 2020, Trump beat Biden, in Alaska, by 35,742 votes.  

This time there were 234,247 people who didn't vote.  Say, 175,000 of them were still eligible Alaska voters.

And this time, according to the State's website, there were almost 70,000 more voters.  Trump's winning margin shrank by 21,000 votes, by more than 1/3.  

We learned a lot more about Trump after the 2016 election.

A lot of things happened during Trump's presidency from a pandemic during which Trump said repeatedly that COVID would just go away. See this CNN graphic of his many such proclamations along with the increasing number of cases.

And Trump was impeached once.  

And I suspect, sadly, that many people voted for Biden (but not Clinton) just because he was a man.

A lot more has happened since the 2020 election. 
  • There was the January 6 insurrection that he promoted. 
  • Another impeachment.
  • The 50 plus lost Trump court cases challenging Biden's election win.
  • The various Trump indictments and convictions.
  • The classified documents stored in a Mar-a-Lago bathroom.
  • The overturning of Roe v Wade
  • The publicity over the Supreme Court's right wing justices' unreported gifts, in one case, millions of dollars worth.
  • The Court's granting immunity to presidents.
Meanwhile the Biden administration lowered the inflation they inherited and passed huge infrastructure bills which have pumped billions into the US economy and are repairing much of our long neglected bridges, roads, electrical grids, internet access, ports, airports, and many other facilities. 

Sure, many die-hard Trump voters limit their intake of information to media that only say good things about Trump and terrible things about Democrats.  But many others - Independents, Republicans - who do get more than Fox News and further right social media propaganda.  

I have no data on how many of the Alaska non-voters were male or female or something else.  But surely there are 30,000 Alaska women, and men with daughters, who for whatever reason, did not vote in 2020, but who have an interest in making sure that the Dobbs decision that overturned Roe, will not lead to restrictions on female health procedures in Alaska.  Let's let them know they can flip Alaska blue.  Yes, I know it's a stretch, but it's certainly within possibility.

For context, NPR reported in 2020 the margins in the swing states that voted for Biden:

Arizona - 10,457 votes
Georgia - 12,670
Michigan - 154,188
Nevada - 33,506
Pennsylvania - 81,660
Wisconsin - 20,282

 Alaska has way fewer people than these states.  Nevertheless, there were 237,000 registered voters in Alaska who didn't vote in 2020. 

Saturday, April 22, 2017

AK Press Club - What Do Media Folks Talk About At Their Conferences?

It's getting late, but I have some pictures and notes about the panels I went to today.

I'll just do them in chronological order.  I already posted about Matt Pearl's discussion on how to put together a video story.

Then came Matt number two - Matt Eich, a photographer who shared his photos that have been put into book form.  His projects are ambitious.  He finds interesting people and gets permission to hang out with them over a long period of time taking pictures.  You can see the albums on his website at the links below, including a better version of the picture on the right (it's in Carry Me Ohio).

THE INVISIBLE YOKE


It's Matt's head in the lower right of the photo, sticking up out of his computer.  I had a little trouble balancing the brightness of the screen so you can see the photo and the darkness of the room so you can get a sense of that too.

I had some trouble understanding Matt over the sound system so I missed a lot of the explanations of the photos, but this is serious photography and commitment.


Then I went looking for the Hearken Meet-up, but ended up in another session in the old TV studio on campus that had a video connection called "Smart, effective and ethical audience interaction."  The program says "Join presenters from the West Region of the Associated Press for best practices to apply your journalistic ethics in the world of social media."  While I was there the discussion was focused on how to find stories and contact people using Facebook.

But I really wanted to hear the Hearken meet-up talk.  It said it was about a way for radio folks to connect better with their audience.
It turns out to be an online system for getting suggestions from listeners for story ideas and there's a way for all the listeners to vote on the suggestions.  The idea is to engage the audience more.  It also costs stations and this was a sales pitch.  But it was an interesting discussion of one attempt to connect more to listeners.  Below is Steve Heimel talking with Hearken's Ellen Mayer on the right.




After lunch I listened to Jenna Johnson with moderator Liz Ruskin.  Johnson is a reporter for the Washington Post and followed the Trump campaign.  I've got lots of notes from that discussion, but given I'm trying to get all these in before I go to bed, I'll just offer a few things I found interesting.
Johnson said that she was curious about some of the off-the-beaten-campaign-path cities that Trump was speaking at so she used census data to come up with profiles of the places.  They were all well under the average US income, education, and employment levels.

Jenna Johnson and Liz Ruskin
At one point in the campaign, reporters had to get tickets and wait in line like everyone else.  No one from the campaign came around - as they did with other campaigns - and gathered voter data or offered water (it was hot) or even apologies for the inconveniences.  But she said the Trump supporters didn't seem to mind.  And she came to value these situations where she could get a more visceral sense of the people there and could slowly reveal herself and get interviews.

Johnson said that one good thing about the campaign was that you need it would end on a certain date.  But then Trump was elected and she ended up in the White House press.  Some asked if things gotten less hectic.  In the video below she answers:




Someone asked if Trump voters had  simmered down a bit.
Johnson said they had.  Once Trump won, they won.  Before that, they were angry at media.  Once election over it was cool.  They don’t have to fight you any more.  They had their victory.

There was lots more, but time to move on.





NPR reporter Kirk Siegler's topic was "making news stories pop.'  I liked Siegler's laid back style, which goes along with his rural beat.  There was nothing slick about him.  He came across as genuine.  Some of the points he made about getting good stories included:

  • A strong character, and the example stories he played did all have strong characters

Kirk Siegler

  • Tension - competing values or loyalties
  • Knowing the point of your story
  • Take your listener on a journey - he gave an example of walking from one end of a wildfire zone to the other, stopping along the way to make comments on talk to someone
  • Immediately after the interview, jot down notes - "what is the most important thing she said?" What are some of the interesting takeaways you want to remember?  Write it down right away.
  • Find a local guide.  A fixer.  When you're going to a place you don't know for a short time, you should contact someone who can then lead you to others.  Do this before you get there.

[UPDATE June 27, 2017: The Alaska Press Club has put Kirk's talk up on Soundcloud. You can now hear it all.
You can hear several other talks from the conference here.]

OK, that's a very abbreviated view of what I took in today.  These conferences always give me things to think about, new ways to do things, a checklist for how I do things, and sometimes confirmation that I'm doing things right.  


Sunday, March 05, 2017

Remember That Muslim Kenyan? It Seems He Tapped Trump's Phone Too

Let's see.  The next step will be a call to have him removed from the US as an illegal alien.

The New York Times is reporting that FBI director Comey wants the Justice Department to deny Trump's claims:
"The F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, asked the Justice Department this weekend to publicly reject President Trump’s assertion that President Barack Obama ordered the tapping of Mr. Trump’s phones, senior American officials said on Sunday. Mr. Comey has argued that the highly charged claim is false and must be corrected, they said, but the department has not released any such statement."
I found the next sentence interesting for what it tells us about Comey (assuming, of course, this is accurate at all):
"Mr. Comey, who made the request on Saturday after Mr. Trump leveled his allegation on Twitter, has been working to get the Justice Department to knock down the claim because it falsely insinuates that the F.B.I. broke the law, the officials said." (emphasis added)
Back in October when he told the world about reopening the Clinton email investigation, he wrote to FBI  employees:
"Of course, we don’t ordinarily tell Congress about ongoing investigations, but here I feel an obligation to do so given that I testified repeatedly in recent months that our investigation was completed." (emphasis added)
Comey seems to have a strong need to protect his own reputation, which may skew his judgment.  

Back to the phone tapping allegations, the Washington Post fact-checker searches down references to FISA court requests and gives Trump four Pinocchios.

Sounds to me like the heats on over Russia and Trump's using his usual tactic of a diversionary attack to get people's attention off Trump.  I guess his mother didn't read him the story about the boy who cried wolf.  

Tuesday, January 31, 2017

Why Wait Till 2020, Let's Ask For An Annulment Of The Election

OK, so you're really drunk when you get married, and you really didn't know what you were doing and you married someone you didn't even know the person you married.   If you're Catholic, you can get an annulment.

So I was thinking the same should hold true for an election.  So I looked up the grounds for an annulment of a marriage in the Catholic church.  We could incorporate some of these as part of a constitutional amendment.

For example, the document I found starts like this:
Grounds for Marriage Annulment in the Catholic Church  There are very well defined canonical grounds for Marriage Annulment. Once these have been established marriage Annulment can proceed. It is important to understand the grounds for Marriage Annulment before making application, and if in doubt you should consult your local priest.
So what are some of the grounds that might apply here?
  • Insufficient use of reason (Canon 1095, 10)
  • Grave lack of discretionary judgment concerning essential matrimonial [presidential] rights and duties (Canon 1095, 20)
  • Psychic-natured incapacity to assume marital [presidential] obligations (Canon 1095, 30)
  • Ignorance about the nature of marriage [presidency] (Canon 1096, sec. 1)
  • Error about a quality of a person (Canon 1097, sec. 2)
  • Fear (1103)
I think most of my readers can figure out the logic one could use to argue most of these.  But there's one more that might need a little clarification because the metaphor is not perfect.  While the Catholics talk about marriage and then "you or your spouse", we're talking about the 'election' in part and the 'presidency' in part.  And the 'you' here is the 'voters' and the 'new president' is the spouse.  But after the election, we have to talk about the nature of the presidency.  

With that in mind, I offer one more ground for an annulment:

  • Willful exclusion of marital [presidential] fidelity (Canon 1101, 12)
My thinking here is that the president thought he could take on the presidency and still keep his old partner (the Trump businesses).  I think that qualifies as willful exclusion of presidential fidelity.  He's just put his businesses in his sons' houses where he can sneak a visit any time he goes over for dinner.  

Friday, December 16, 2016

Obama's Press Conference Message: E PLURIBUS UNUM

Listening to Obama now in his press conference, I think there is one message that he is trying to send:  E PLURIBUS UNUM.  "Out of Many One."

It underlies his answers - which are focused on American values, on things like smooth transition, on following procedures, on minimizing Trump's outrageousness.  "The president still is in transition mode.. . There's a whole different attitude and vibe when you're not in power as when you're in power. . . We have to wait and see how they operate when they are fully briefed on the issues, have their hands on the levers, and have to make decisions."

But lest people miss the message, just look at the camera view of the president at the conference.

Screenshot from White House feed of Obama press conference Dec 16, 2016

Look carefully at the lower right corner of the image.  It's the presidential flag.  E PLURIBUS UNUM fits neatly into the corner of the image.  There is no way that was an accident.  Look at the presidential flag and think about how it has to be folded so that E PLURIBUS UNUM folds so perfectly into the corner of the image.  You'll also notice that much more of the presidential flag is in the image than the American flag.

Image from flagandbanner

As an amateur photographer and blogger, I know that I don't capture that kind of image accidentally.

And if you listen to his comments, he tells us over and over again, in his words and in his tone, that we have to improve the public discourse, that we have to stand together as Americans or foreign nations will exploit our disarray.  We are the strongest nation and that we are the only enemy who can defeat us.


The subtext is the old Pogo message.

Image from here

Sunday, November 13, 2016

Responding To Oxo Beppo's Comments On Whether Progressives Listen To The White Working Class

In a previous post, I wrote:
". . . Trying to be positive, I was thinking that how I feel now is how many conservatives have felt since Obama was first elected.  I'd like to think that my feeling is more legitimate, but feelings are feelings. They may or may not be tied to a rational, realistic assessment.   But it's clear that progressives haven't really listened to the pain of the working class. . . "
Oxo Beppo took issue (third comment) with that part about not listening:
". . . wait, it's not at all true that anyone can say, 'progressives haven't listened to the pain of the working class'. 
That's not a true statement, progressives are the only people who have paid any attention to the pain of the working class. That hasn't changed.
What's changed is the propaganda from the right has 'trumped' that reality.
We know that unions are good, we know that healthcare for all is good, we know that minimum wage is good. Progressives have and still do champion the working class. The right never has and never will. . . "
I think that he's right and I'm right.  I've sat on this for several days trying to figure out how to articulate what I meant.  It seemed this was getting too long for the comment section, so I'm putting it in a new post.  But do go back and see the old one to see the full context.

Oxo, I think we’re talking past each other.  I agree with much of what you say.  I’ve been sitting on this while I thought out how to respond.
1.  I shouldn’t have used the term ‘working class.’  I don’t even know what that means any more and the issues I was talking about spread beyond economic class.
2.  Yes, right wing propaganda demonized Clinton.  And there were a lot of people who simply can’t deal with a strong woman, so the emails and all the other charges gave them a non-sexist ‘cover’ to hate her.  But the hate was all out of proportion to the ‘crimes’ she was charged with and how these people have responded to men who have much worse records, including Trump.
3.  Unions?  I agree and disagree.  Unions have done and still do a lot of good for workers.  Historically, they got workers to 40 hour weeks, they got sick leave, and vacation time.  They got health care and pensions.  (Though if health care hadn’t been tied to work, maybe we would have gotten national health care a long time ago and people wouldn’t have been tied to bad jobs just to keep the health care.)  And eventually businesses without unions began matching union benefits and pay to keep unions out.  And as the right has been successful in breaking union power, pay and benefits for workers has lost ground.  So yes, unions have done a lot of good.  But like any powerful institutions, unions also attracted the power hungry and the greedy who took advantage of the fact that most workers didn’t pay a lot of attention to their union politics, or rules that made it easy to keep workers uninformed.  Many people resented paying union dues and corrupt or callous union leaders.  And, most importantly, very few people are even members of unions.   Union membership was 20% of workers in 1983 and now it's 11%.  Today 32% of government employees are unionized and only 7% of private sector employees are unionized.

But the key difference between us is the notion of listening.  Yes, Democrats did all the traditional things that they have done for the working poor, if it was about jobs or health care - pushed for day care, minimum wage, health care, and on and on.  But those aren’t the pains I was talking about.    When the complaints were about blacks and other minorities getting treated better than they were being treated, progressives didn't listen.  And I understand why.  But they didn't even listen; they just dismissed them.

These are the people I was alluding.   People who had fallen out of the comfortable middle class, or had never been in it.  Mostly white people on the margins.  They’d bought into the American dream and when they had money they did what advertisers told them to do - they spent it.  And as they got older, they found themselves without enough money to maintain that life.  Liberals can make all the smug arguments they want - "where is your self-reliance and your belief in the free market?" but that's besides the point.

Many of them came from dysfunctional families where the father was the head of the household and everyone had to follow his rules. [See George Lakoff on this. Scroll down to Conservatism and Liberalism and the two models of family.]  And there may have been physical as well as verbal abuse.  The pain I was talking about is the pain of not being respected, of being condescended to, of not being taken seriously that often stems from parental belittling.   It’s the pain that Palin appealed to and won applause for when she talked about elites, about the college professors, the ‘experts,’ the people who thought they were ‘better’ than ‘us.’

Liberals have supported every group that was outside the ideal American WASP image - blacks, Hispanics, Asians, LGBT, women, Native Americans, and on and on. Rightfully so.   In an attempt to encourage tolerance, liberals have made racial epithets and other derogatory terms against the rules - sometimes actual enforceable rules, sometimes just social rules of decency.  All the derogatory terms except for slurs for WASPS, particularly poor whites, words like trailer trash, poor white trash, and hillbillies.  It was still ok to use those.  And the people who no longer were allowed to use their traditional epithets in public, found themselves as the only people against whom epithets could be used with impunity.

It’s the anger over that double standard that I’m talking about.  Liberals have not heard those cries to be treated with respect, to not be called stupid and ignorant.

Admittedly, it’s hard for liberals to be accepting of people who make racist and sexist remarks. Rich and powerful racists get deference, but when they aren’t in positions of power that liberal intolerance comes out.

It's a dilemma.  I don’t find racial and sexual discrimination acceptable.  I don’t find treating others badly acceptable.  We have to separate the behavior from the human being.  We can condemn the behavior, but in a way that is respectful of the human being.  And that's strategically difficult.  When you deal with a bully, standing up to that bully is often the only successful strategy.  And after watching Democratic presidential candidates like Gore and Kerry get creamed by bully politics, the Clinton campaign did stand up to every Trump attack.  But for the Trump supporters it was about being respected not about rational arguments.

I’ve talked about being more sympathetic and understanding of people I disagree with on this blog from early on.  The first post that I remember, because I got flak for it, was when I complained about liberals trashing Vic Kohring after he’d been convicted and sentenced to prison.  He still was a human being, he was down and out, and I thought continuing to kick him was mean spirited.

There's the behavior.  But more interesting to me is what personal history deep inside causes someone to be mean and nasty to others based on their race or gender or sexuality or religion.   I'm of the belief that people regularly attack innocent others when they are unhappy about themselves. Being mean and angry and controlling isn't being happy and at peace with oneself. When people understand the source of that unhappiness they have a chance to start changing the behavior.  And parental modeling plays a big role in whether we lash out or talk quietly and rationally.  The quiet rationality, that liberal ideal, can also cause problems if one is suppressing great anger and pain.

What I was trying to say was that Trump heard  those people who felt they were looked down on as stupid, ignorant, bigoted white people.  And he told them they were ok.  He did it by defying liberal standards of acceptable speech.  The very things that alarmed liberals so much resonated with his supporters.  He was saying the things they were thinking but had been told were unacceptable to say out loud.  He said them on national television.  He said them unapologetically.  And he did it as a presidential candidate. He was saying with his behavior - you're ok!   I suspect for many of them who had authoritarian fathers, he had the additional appeal as a familiar father figure.

Liberals haven’t been able to get past the sexist and racist comments.  They generally overlook the sexism of rap, excusing it because of the context of racist oppression.  But the context of white racism is never treated with the same tolerance.  I’ve talked about listening and needing to talk, and that racists are humans too. (And let's not forget that in the US, everyone has been infected by racism.  For some the symptoms rarely show, but others become full blown racists.  But that's a discussion for another day.)

This post describes just one segment, probably a large segment, of Trump voters.  People voted for Trump for many reasons and Clinton's message and manner didn't swing enough people in enough key states to win the electoral college vote.  That's not blaming Clinton, it's just descriptive of what happened.

I've used the terms liberal and progressive and generally used the pronoun 'they' even though I fall in that category.  While I have advocated for treating conservatives as people and for listening to them on this blog,   I haven’t done a lot about it, so I’m not excusing myself here either.

Thursday, November 10, 2016

Remember There's No Mandate: Clinton got 59,755,284 votes, Trump Only Got 59,535,522*

Popular vote 2000 Bush = 50,456,002  Gore= 50,999,897

*The actual popular vote for 2016 will still change as absentee ballots continue to be counted, but it's important to remember when Trump supporters talk about a mandate, that the majority of the voters picked Clinton.

The world would be a spectacularly different place had Gore won - we'd have been much further along on the most important issue facing the world, climate change for one thing.  The same is true in this election.

Trump warned us that the election was rigged.  The electoral college is one of the ways that the election is rigged.  (But, let's be honest, if Clinton had won the electoral college, but not the popular vote, Democrats wouldn't be complaining.  Though I suspect the Trump supporters would be in the streets much more aggressively than Clinton supporters are.)

But there is something you can do about this.  There's a movement to make the electoral college irrelevant.  From the Daily Kos:

"Eliminating the Electoral College does not even require a constitutional amendment. An effort known as The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is an agreement among several U.S. states and the District of Columbia to award all their respective electoral votes to whichever presidential candidate wins the overall popular vote. Once states totaling 270 electoral votes join the compact--which only requires passing state laws-- then the next presidential election will be determined the the popular vote, not the Electoral College.
As of November 9, 2016, ten states and the District of Columbia have signed the compact, totaling 165 electoral votes. So, we are already over 60% of the way there. If we can make this a national issue now, and if Democrats can do well at the state level in the 2018 midterm elections (which could happen under President Trump), then the winner of 2020 presidential election will be determined by popular vote."
















But there are no simple solutions, as Trump and his supporters are soon to find out,  and as  Nate Silver pointed out in a Five Thirtyeight article in 2011.  He argues that the money follows the important votes and with the electoral college as the important vote, political money is focused on swing states.  If the electoral college no longer existed, that money would be spent trying to get the popular vote instead.  So, he suggests, Bush might have spent his money to win the popular vote instead of the swing states.

And let's remember that the states still are relatively autonomous.  According to the LA Times, Californians still believe in collectively making their state a better place to live:
"[California] Voters embraced $94 million per year for parks, $1.2 billion to house the city’s homeless, $3.3 billion for community college facilities and a stunning $120 billion to pay for subways, light rail lines and other transit projects over 40 years. Those measures, backers say, will help Los Angeles tackle two of its most intractable problems — traffic and homelessness — and potentially reshape the region."

Wednesday, November 09, 2016

Still In Denial - Keeping Election At A Distance

I had a meeting downtown today.  I knew there'd be no exercise time, so I decided to just walk the 3.5 miles.  I don't have studs on my bike tires and I wasn't sure how icy the trail would be.  I know the sidewalks aren't great, so walking would have to do.

Urban hiking is an idea we came up with when we were living in Hong Kong.  A three mile hike is no big thing in the woods on a trail, so why not do the same in the city?  In Hong Kong we could go explore new places that way and we could always get a bus or train back home if necessary.

Today I just took the bike trail downtown.  As I knew it would, an hour of walking through the woods would clear my head.














I even got to see a young moose eating grass at a playground.  The trail veers to the right and through a tunnel under C Street.








The meeting was fascinating in a troubling way and one day I hope to be able to post about this project.

It did feel like there had been a death in the family and I wanted to go by the cemetery downtown and hang out a bit with the departed.  But the meeting was on the other end of downtown and I was on foot.  Like with a death, I was trying to keep busy with my to do list and increase the distance from the initial shock before I deal with it.  Though in this case, the magnitude of the loss is going to grow and grow.

Trying to be positive, I was thinking that how I feel now is how many conservatives have felt since Obama was first elected.  I'd like to think that my feeling is more legitimate, but feelings are feelings. They may or may not be tied to a rational, realistic assessment.   But it's clear that progressives haven't really listened to the pain of the working class.  As I walked I thought about Trump's childhood.  From what I can tell, it was about always trying to please his father and avoid his wrath, avoid being a loser.  I suspect that a lot of families had similar dynamics and that Trump has that in common with many people who come from families with a strict and mercurial father.  He understood that pain and his audiences caught that.  And his own mercurial behavior - sometimes glowing and kind, as with his first speech as president elect, and other times nasty and insulting and bullying - is something they recognize from their own fathers.  What many of us saw as outrageous and unacceptable behavior, many others recognized as very familiar.

People know when they aren't being respected and I think liberal rejection of frustrated white working class was part of their resentment against Clinton.  Every other group is given a context - discrimination, poverty - with which to excuse unacceptable behavior.  But poor whites are called hillbillies or trailer trash or poor white trash when equivalent ethnic slurs are not allowed.  This is why in this blog I try not to use any kinds of slurs, try to respectful of the people I write about or who comment.  We need to talk and come together.  This is probably a good time for liberals to talk to Trump supporters, because now they are happy and feel like they matter.

Good night.  Don't let this fool you into thinking that things aren't going to get lots worse before they get better.  That I don't expect the mean and brutish Trump to be back soon.  He's 70.  He's not going to change.  As soon as someone crosses him, we'll see the nasty Trump back.

John Foelster's Research Into Alaska's AV-OS Voting Machines And How To Hack Them

As the early election results came in, I put the presidential race into a box and put it outside, turned off the radio, and did other things.  I wasn't ready to address what was happening.  I'm still not.

This post is something of a guest post.  I posted about John Foelster in 2014.  He alerted me several weeks ago that he was close to completing his website with all his evidence.  I wrote this last night but decided to wait until I'd slept before posting it.  I'm still not ready to address much and I have an afternoon appointment on something totally different today.  John's also posted this on Daily Kos.

My one bright bit of news this morning is that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote.  Imagine Trump's supporters if he had won the popular vote but lost the electoral college.



I've never met John Foelster, but we have exchanged emails.  This 2014 post gives my thoughts about John and why I posted about his work then.  I got some education in computer voting hacking while covering the Anchorage Municipal election fiasco in 2012.  The posts on that election are listed in the 2014 post linked above.

I posted Foelster's stuff in 2014 and I'm posting his recent stuff for several reasons:
1.  While I don't totally understand all that he's saying, I'm convinced that he's done his homework on the technical side.  He's found everything that's to be found online about the machines we use in Alaska and how we handled them.
2.  He doesn't have an agenda other than righting what he perceives as a wrong.
3.  The work he's done should be seen by those who can review it technically and determine its value.  And if there are others looking at this topic, they may find John's work useful. Or can point out his errors.

I have less confidence in Foelster's ability to fill in the gaps that are left by what is NOT available online.  It's reasonable that he try to explain how this could have been done.  But I wish he'd talked to people to find out if his suppositions about how this was carried out have merit.

My thoughts on all this, including a list of my posts about the 2012 Municipal election fiasco are on the 2014 post I devoted to Foelster's work then.

I've looked at his private website.  It's massive.  There is lots and lots of information.  His statement is like a two second look through a hole in the fence around his work.  I couldn't get through it all.  Whether it is fact or fiction, it is, in its own way, a work of art.   While John may not have tied all the loose ends, and may have tied some of them incorrectly, he is not a crazy conspiracy nut.  He's done way too much detailed study and analysis to not be taken seriously.  If his work is full of holes, exposure to the world will demonstrate that.  If it is worthwhile, not putting it up would be wrong.  I'm willing to put it up here since all this is related to Alaska elections.

Here's what John Foelster has to say.


[I've cut this out based on a request from the author - see comments below.]

2 Incumbent Republicans Fall In Close Alaska State House Races

I put up the most recent tally, but checked for a later one before posting.  And it was there.  So you can see 23:32pm results, and then the 00:21am results.

Cathy Muñoz lost in Juneau, Liz Vasquez in Anchorage.


Anchorage

Senate District N  with 64% of the precincts reporting
Beltrami, Vince  (NA)          5699  49.58%
Giessel, Catherine A (REP)  5738 49.92%  (Incumbent)
Write-in Votes   58    0.50%

Incumbent has 39 vote lead.

With 100% reporting
Beltrami, Vince  (NA)          8040  48.02%
Giessel, Catherine A (REP)  8615  51.46%  (Incumbent)
Write-in Votes   87    0.52%

Incumbent by 575

HOUSE DISTRICT 22 with 71% of the precincts reporting

Darden, Dustin T.  (AI)  502   9.78%  
Vazquez, Liz  (REP)  2236  43.55%  (Incumbent)
Grenn, Jason S.  (NA)   2385 46.46%

Challenger has a 149 vote lead

With 100%
Darden, Dustin T.  (AI)  654   9.29%  
Vazquez, Liz  (REP)  3075  43.67%  (Incumbent)
Grenn, Jason S.  (NA)   3298 46.84%   Winner

Challenger by 224 votes

HOUSE DISTRICT 25  with  57.1 % precincts reporting

Higgins, Pat  (DEM)    2408  49.95%
Millett, Charisse E. (REP)  2389 49.55%  (Incumbent)

Challenger has 19 point lead

100% reporting
Higgins, Pat  (DEM)    3297  49.45%
Millett, Charisse E. (REP)  3342 50.12%  (Incumbent)

Incumbent by 46 votes.



HOUSE DISTRICT 27 with 75% of precincts reporting

Pruitt, Lance  (REP)          2685   50.93%   (Incumbent)
Crawford, Harry T. J (DEM)  2569 48.73%

Incumbent has a 117 vote lead.

Pruitt, Lance  (REP)          3737   50.60%   (Incumbent)
Crawford, Harry T. J (DEM)  3616 48.96%

Incumbent by 141


Juneau

HOUSE DISTRICT 34  with 100% of precincts reporting

Muñoz, Cathy  (REP)   3730  48.54%  (Incumbent)
Parish, Justin   (DEM)  3914  50.93%

Challenger wins by 184 votes

Tuesday, November 08, 2016

How Will the 2016 Election Affect Black Representation In Congress?

Overview:  There are currently 2 black US Senators and 46 black Members of Congress.  At this point it looks certain there will be one less black representative as Charles Rangel's replacement is likely to be Dominican Adriano Espaillat.  (I've not seen him identified as black.)  Where other black representatives are not running in the general election, their successors appear likely to be African-American.  One iffy black incumbent is Texas district 23 Republican William Hurd.
Kamala Harris is likely to be the third African-American in the US Senate (also she'll be the first Indian-American Senator.) That would be the most black Senators in the Senate at once. Robert 'Bobby' Scott of Virginia is hoping to be appointed to the Senate if Tim Kaine becomes Vice President.  If that happens he'd be the fourth African-American US Senator in the next Congress.  But then his House seat will be open.
[*UPDATE Nov 9, 2016 - I've found two more new African-American candidates for Congress and they have both won:  Florida District 10 - Val Demings;  Delaware at-large - Lisa Blunt Rochester.]

Background on this post:  I updated my list of black members of Congress after the 2014 election.  You can see it here.  [There were two corrections necessary after I worked on this post.  I had totally missed one new black member elected in a 75% white district in New Jersey - Barbara Watson Coleman.  I'd also misspelled Marc Veassel in Texas district 33.]

I figured I should get ready for this election to see what changes there might be after this election.  Are there other black candidates running in other districts?  This is always a bit tricky.  As noted above, in 2014 I missed Barbara Watson Coleman, though I did manage to find a few other new ones who were not in mostly black districts.  This year I was only able, so far, to come up with one African-American candidate not from a seat already held by an African-American:   Kamala Harris is running for US Senate from California.   But what about others?  If you know of any I missed, please let me know.  My email is in the right column above the blog archive.

[Note on racial identity:  I'd note that these posts give me some discomfort because of the emphasis on race.  This is a socially constructed idea that sometimes becomes tricky.  Often identifying a person's race is arbitrary.   I try to utilize the identifiers the candidates themselves use, or look for other indicators that someone has self identified as African-American or black.  For instance,  Wikipedia tells us about Kamala Harris
"Harris is the first female,[4] the first African-American,[5][6][7][8][9] and the first Indian-American attorney general in California.[10][11]"
But for the Democratic candidate in Harlem who is expected to replace Charles Rangel, I can only find reference to him being 'Dominican' and 'Latino.'

For political reasons, it is still relevant to have these categories, and groups like the Congressional Black Caucus are significant.  But it is also instructive to look at women in Congress, Hispanics/Latinos, and other ethnicities.  I'll leave those to others to do.  My posts on this subject came about in 2008 when I could not find a clear list of black members of Congress and ended up creating one.  That left me with the task of updating the list every election.]

There are some changes we know about already:

New York 

Charles Rangel is NOT running for reelection in New York's 13th district.
The Democrat running to replace him is Adriano Espaillat, who would be, if elected, according to Wikipedia, the first Dominican Member of Congress.  There's a  Republican candidate, Tony Smith, and a Green and a Transparent Government Party candidate.

Florida 

Rep. Corrine Brown from Florida's 5th district lost the Democratic primary to state senator Al Lawson after  a 24 count federal indictment.  This means the loss of one woman member of Congress, but a Lawson win would maintain this as a black seat.

Maryland 

Rep. Donna Edwards from Maryland's 4th district ran unsuccessfully for the US Senate seat vacated by Barbara Mikulski.  That means one less woman in the Senate (Mikulski) and one less woman in the House (Edwards).
Anthony Brown is the Democratic candidate hoping to take Edwards' House seat.  His bio says he was the first African-American student body president in his high school.


Pennsylvania

District 2  Chaka Fattah was convicted on 22 counts of corruption in July 2016 and resigned from Congress.  He had already lost in the April primary to Dwight Evans (also African-American.)


California

Democrat Kamala Harris is the front runner in the race for US Senate.  Her father, a university professor, was from Jamaica and her mother was a medical doctor from India.  Politico touts this race (under California's relatively new all candidate primaries where the top two run in the general regardless of party) as historic.  Kamala Harris' opponent is Rep. Loretta Sanchez.
"The election of either would be a historic first: Harris would be the first biracial woman and first Indian-American woman in the U.S. Senate; Sanchez would be the first Latina."
I guess since there has already been an African-American woman in the Senate, that aspect wasn't mentioned.


Virginia

Robert Scott from Virginia's 3rd district is hoping to be appointed US Senator if Virginia's current Senator Tim Kaine is elected Vice President of the US.


Below is from my list of black Members of Congress from 2014.  Most are from pretty safe districts. I've commented on some of the races and others just have links, mostly to Ballotpedia, which, since 2014, seems to have garnered all the top spots on Google for people looking up congressional elections.


Alabama

 District 7 Rep. Terri Sewell is the only candidate in November.

District 13 Rep.  Barbara Lee   got 90% in the primary (in California now all parties are on one primary ballot and the top two go to the primary.)

California

Rep. Karen Bass in California's 37th district got 80% in the primary and will run against the Democratic runner up Chris Wiggins.

Rep. Maxine Waters in Calfornia's 43rd district got 73% of the vote in the primary against her Republican opponent.

Deleware

[UPDATE Nov 9, 2016:  District-at-Large Lisa Bluint Rochester* won]

Florida

District 5  Al Lawson

[UPDATE Nov 9, 2016:  District 10 Val Demings (D)* won this seat with 65% of the vote.]


District 20 Alcee Hastings

District 24, Frederica Wilson is running unopposed.


District of Columbia

Eleanor Holmes Norton


Georgia

District 2 Sanford Bishop

District 4 Hank Johnson

District 5 John Lewis

District 13 David Scott running unopposed.

All the Georgia races at one link.


Illinois

District 1 Bobby Rush won the Democratic primary with 73% of the vote and over 100,000 more votes than his Republican opponent got in his primary.

District 2 Robin Kelly also got over 70% in primary.

District 7 Danny Davis is running against long shot Republican Jeffrey Leef whose unusual road to the ballot got Tribune coverage.


Indiana

District 7 Andre Carson got more than twice the votes in his primary than his Republican opponent got in hers.


Louisiana

District 2 Cedric Richmond is running against three other Democrats and a Libertarian.  (Louisiana  will have a runoff in December if no one gets 50% or more.)


Maryland

District 4 - see above discussion of Donna Edwards running (and losing) in the Democratic primary for US Senate.

District 7 Elija Cummings got 13 times as many votes in the Democratic primary than his opponent got in the Republican primary.


Michigan

District 13 John Conyers

District 14 - after redistricting there were two Democratic Members of Congress in this district. African-American/Bangladeshi Hansen Clarke was pitted against white Gary Peters in 2012.  Peters won.  In 2014, Peters ran successfully for the US Senate and was replaced in the House by African-American Brenda Lawrence who defeated Clarke in the 2014 Democratic primary.


Minnesota

District 5 Keith Ellison -


Missouri

District 1  Wm. Lacy Clay

District 5 Emanuel Cleaver II


Mississippi

District 2 Bernie Thompson


New Jersey


District 10 Donald Payne   It appears there were no opponents in the primaries. 5% of the district is Republican.

District 12 Bonnie Watson Coleman was the first African-American to win this district in 2014.  This district is 75% white, but leans Democratic.


Nevada

District 4 Black Rep. Steven Horsford lost his 2014 reelection bid to the Republican Cresent Hardy.  The Democratic candidate this year, Ruben Kihuen was born in Mexico and faces Hardy.


New York

District 5 Gregory Meeks

District 8 Hakeem Jeffries  Appears unopposed in primary, no Republican candidates, one Conservative.

District 9 Yvette Clarke

District 13 Charles Rangel - retiring - discussed above.


North Carolina

The two black districts in North Carolina (1 and 12) were subject to gerrymandering and ordered to be redrawn.

District 1 G.K. Butterfield - 

District 12  Alma Adams (who was first elected in a special election in 2014 to replace Rep. Melvin Watts who was appointed Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency.)


Ohio

District 3 Joyce Beatty

District 11 Marcia Fudge


Pennsylvania

District 2  Chaka Fattah was convicted on 22 counts of corruption in July 2016 and resigned from Congress.  He had already lost in the April primary to Dwight Evans (also African-American)


South Carolina

District 6  James Clyburn


Texas

District 9  Al Green

District 18  Sheila Jackson Lee

District 23  William Hurd's (R) Democratic opponent Pete Gallego got more votes in his primary than Hurd got in the Republican primary. Gallego won this seat in 2012 but was defeated by Hurd in 2014.  This race is rated as a tossup, though the district is 55% Hispanic and  Wikipedia says:
"In the Texas House, Gallego served on the board of directors of the National Association of Latino Elected Officials (NALEO), and four terms as Chairman of the Mexican American Legislative Caucus (MALC), a caucus of Texas representatives who are of Mexican-American descent or who serve a significant Mexican-American constituency."

District 30  Eddie Bernice Johnson

District 33  Marc Veasey


Utah 

District 4 Mia Love (R)  The district is 84% white, 2% black, 15% Hispanic.  Love is the first Haitian American Member of Congress and the first black Republican woman in Congress.


Virginia

District 3  Bobby Scott  - see note above about him hoping to be appointed to US Senate if Kaine becomes vice president.


Virgin Islands

Long-time Virgin Islands delegate to Congress Donna Christensen ran unsuccessfully for governor of the Virgin Islands in 2014.  Stacy Plaskett was elected to replace Christiansen as the Virgin Island's delegate to Congress in 2014.


Wisconsin

District 4  Gwen Moore





Saturday, November 05, 2016

We Can't Save Your Planet And Other Signs Of LA

Perhaps the most ominous sign I saw in LA was this one:



More encouraging was this one by the rack of Santa Monica community bicycles.  It's a little steeper price than in Paris.  I need to read more details.  I don't think there are as many bike racks either, but then Santa Monica doesn't have near the population density that Paris has.



And the new bus route that Santa Monica added to get people to the new Metro station has a bus stop very close to my mom's place.  We tend to take the bus to and from the airport, but that leaves us with a mile walk.  In fact there was no bus less than a mile away.  This new route connects us to the one to the airport with just a short walk.




And when we got to the airport shuttle, there was this giant billboard across the street.  Cynical me wanted to check to see if this billboard was pure Doublespeak or was reasonably close to what the proposition does.

Ballotpedia says:

"A "yes" vote supports regulating drug prices by requiring state agencies to pay no more than the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) pays for prescription drugs.
A "no" vote opposes this measure to require state agencies to pay no more than the VA pays for prescription drugs."

It also says the Prop 61 campaign is likely to be the most expensive in US  on record with the drug companies spending $109 million so far to defeat it.
"The top ten donors to No on 61 are all pharmaceutical companies or companies with interests in the pharmaceutical drug industry. Over 99 percent of contributions to Californians for Lower Drug Prices came from the AIDS Healthcare Foundation. Polls indicate that support for Proposition 61 to be around 57 percent."
So folks, since the aliens can't save our planet, I guess we need to do it ourselves.

Thursday, November 03, 2016

Does Election Day Mean Anything With So Many People Voting Early?

When I hear polls about the presidential race tightening up, the cynic in me thinks it's a ruse by the media to keep people watching the news.  Or by the parties to get they're people to turn out to vote.  But given that lots of folks have already voted, what exactly do the polls mean any more?  I expect political scientists, statisticians, and politicians will be studying that question a lot.

We left town before early voting was available.  So now that we're back, I went in today.  The line was to the far door when I got there.   This is the only place to vote in Anchorage for now.  There were probably 40 or so folks ahead of me.





Then it turns the corner where another 10 to 15 people (depending on squeezed together they are) are waiting.






















When you get around the corner, there were five people checking id's and pulling up a page for me to sign, that had my address and district and ballot number.  I took that over to get a ballot and then went into the booth to vote.










A poll worker came through the line telling us it would be about ten minutes and checking for people with issues.  One guy had moved within Alaska.  There was a woman who had moved to Alaska, and no, she hadn't checked off the 'register to vote' box when she got her Alaska drivers license and with less than a week left to election day, she'd missed the 30 day before the election cut off.  She got a questioned ballot, but it didn't sound like it should count.

In the end it took 23 minutes from start to finish.  The surprise on the ballot was how many judges were up for retention.  In Alaska, judges are appointed through one of the cleanest systems in the country - though Republicans who have a vested interest in their preferred outcomes rather than a fair process based on the law [of course, that's my interpretation not theirs], are trying to get that system changed.  I've written more about the Judicial Council which nominates and grades judges based on surveys of jurors, attorneys, court staff, court watchers, and other interested parties here.

I guess, sure, election day still means something, but I wonder how long we'll be using that term.  Not sure, though, what will replace it.  Voting Period?  Election Weeks?  Voting Crunch Time?




Friday, October 28, 2016

Bloomberg Reports On Trump Campaign's Plan For Hostile Takeover Of Republican Party

This Bloomberg article describes, without saying it in so many words, Trump's plans for a hostile takeover of the Republican Party with the enthusiastic cooperation of its most unruly shareholders - the Tea Party, the white supremacists, the armed militia folks -  and it apparently doesn't need FEC approval.

This is not the typical short term perspective we get daily.  No he-said-she-said. No invectives.  Rather it looks at Trump's long-term strategy and one of the key players making it work - their main IT guy Brad Parscale.  It's got some facts about who's doing what behind the scenes.  Nothing the Trump camp doesn't want you knowing, but things we usually don't get.

Here's the gist of the article:
  • The Trump team knows the odds of winning are low, but with unexpected primary wins and Brexit as inspiration, they're working an unorthodox strategy.  They're pinning their hopes on a  mix of Trump appeal, belief that  many Trump voters won't tell the truth to pollsters, and a stealth Facebook campaign to suppress the Clinton vote among young liberals, young women, and blacks.
  • Winning the election would be nice, but it seems the focus is on post-election.
  • They're building the Trump-owned data base they'll have after the election with which he can lead his power base in different possible directions, possibly business related, but probably  a takeover of the Republican Party and maybe a second run in 2020.
  • The star of this article is Brad Parscale who is running Trump's data center out of San Antonio.
  • Two other key players in the article are Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner, depicted here as Parscale's insider protector, and Steve Bannon, who's come over from Breitbart.  

The real meat of the article doesn't start until paragraph 8.

Here are some quotes I thought significant. 

1. The election and why the focus is on the post election.
 “It’s built a model, the “Battleground Optimizer Path to Victory,” to weight and rank the states that the data team believes are most critical to amassing the 270 electoral votes Trump needs to win the White House. On Oct. 18 they rank as follows: Florida (“If we don’t win, we’re cooked,” says an official), Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.”
The Trump bluster about winning is there, but their surveys show the same things that other surveys are showing.  (A side note:  since these key states are all on Eastern Time, we should know the results pretty early.  Unless it's really close and early and mail in ballots are held to be counted later.)

2.  It's all about building a data base of Trump supporters with Facebook accounts, credit card numbers,  and email addresses.  

Paragraph 19 seems to offer the crux of the piece:
“Although his operation lags previous campaigns in many areas (its ground game, television ad buys, money raised from large donors), it’s excelled at one thing: building an audience. Powered by Project Alamo and data supplied by the RNC and Cambridge Analytica, his team is spending $70 million a month, much of it to cultivate a universe of millions of fervent Trump supporters, many of them reached through Facebook. By Election Day, the campaign expects to have captured 12 million to 14 million e-mail addresses and contact information (including credit card numbers) for 2.5 million small-dollar donors, who together will have ponied up almost $275 million. “I wouldn’t have come aboard, even for Trump, if I hadn’t known they were building this massive Facebook and data engine,” says Bannon. ‘Facebook is what propelled Breitbart to a massive audience. We know its power.’”
3.  Who is Brad Parscale, where'd he come from, and what is he doing for Trump?

From paragraphys 22-26:
"Parscale, 40, is an up-from-nothing striver who won a place in the Trump firmament by dint of his willingness to serve the family’s needs—and then, when those needs turned to presidential campaigning, wound up inhabiting a position of remarkable authority. He oversees the campaign’s media budget and supervises a large staff of employees and contractors, a greater number than report for duty each day at Trump Tower headquarters. “My loyalty is to the family,” he says. “Donald Trump says ‘Jump’; I say, ‘How high?’ Then I give him my opinion of where I should jump to, and he says, ‘Go do it.’ ”
He sounds like perfect Trump material.
"Parscale was born in a small town outside Topeka, Kan., a self-described “rural jock” whose size—6-foot-8, 240 pounds—won him a basketball scholarship to the University of Texas at San Antonio. When injuries derailed his playing career, his interest turned to business. “The day I graduated, I skipped the ceremony to go straight to California for the dot-com boom,” he says. It was 1999. He became a sales manager for a video streaming company, taught himself programming, and eventually bought some of the company’s intellectual property, in digital video and 3D animation, and struck out on his own. But after the dot-com crash, his company failed, he got divorced, and by 2002 he was back in San Antonio, broke and unemployed."

4.  After the election plans

From paragraph 21:
"Whatever Trump decides, this group will influence Republican politics going forward. These voters, whom Cambridge Analytica has categorized as “disenfranchised new Republicans,” are younger, more populist and rural—and also angry, active, and fiercely loyal to Trump. Capturing their loyalty was the campaign’s goal all along. It’s why, even if Trump loses, his team thinks it’s smarter than political professionals. “We knew how valuable this would be from the outset,” says Parscale. “We own the future of the Republican Party.”
That's reiterated in the final paragraph:
"If the election results cause the party to fracture, Trump will be better positioned than the RNC to reach this mass of voters because he’ll own the list himself—and Priebus, after all he’s endured, will become just the latest to invest with Trump and wind up poorer for the experience."
[Emphasis added in all the quotes above.]


My Take:  The Bully Is Investing Long Term In Disrupting American Democracy

They haven't characterized it that way, but that seems to be Trump's way of doing business.  Attack, Counterattack, and Never Apologize.  This is not about people working together to build, but about destroying others for personal gain.

The plan is a hostile takeover of the Republican Party with the enthusiastic cooperation of its most hostile shareholders - the Tea Party, the white supremacists, the armed militia folks -  and it apparently doesn't need FEC approval.

Will It Succeed?

These guys seem to have a better understanding of Trump voters than they do of Clinton voters.   They're riding on the success of winning the Republican nomination and using what they claim is a new way of thinking about and using the data.  Trump learned early on with his birther campaign, that you could just make up shit and lots of people would believe it.    They certainly have put the Republican Party in a bind and they may well be able to take over what is left of it.  Will that make two right wing parties?  A small group of rational and polite Republicans and a larger group of less educated and more angry Republicans?

And Democrats probably should NOT get too happy about all this.  I suspect Trump won't stop tweeting about 'Crooked Hillary' any time soon, it's the red meat he feeds his followers.  Constant attacks with birther like lies mean nothing gets done and everyone loses confidence in anything except themselves.  This is Lord of the Flies as a political philosophy.

One  hope I see, is for the reasonable Republicans to join the Democrats (who on most issues today are more conservative than Republican Nixon was anyway) and form a party too strong for Trump's minions.  But you know that isn't going to happen.

Sorry, I didn't mean to get so negative. I didn't know this was where I was going to end.

But knowledge is power.

Options

We can all hope these guys are in over their heads and their initial successes will fall flat.  We can drop out of politics and focus on enjoying life while we can.  We can also recognize that there are a lot of very angry white folks and they aren't all old and ready to solve the problem by dying off, and thus we need a positive response.

These are not mutually exclusive options.  Even if the Trumpers fall flat, there will still be a lot of angry folks. We need to stop treating them the way whites have treated people of color and women.  We need to stop acting like they're dumb and stop marginalizing them.  Everyone wants to be loved.  That seems to be Trump's driving force.  He needs people telling him how good he is.   He needs it so bad he tells us how good he is.  And his followers need love and respect too.

Let's give them love rather than condescension and animosity.  That's a Christian thing to do, right?  It's also a Jewish thing and a Buddhist thing.  And for those who aren't religious, it's a Beattle's thing.  

We all know Trump supporters.  Most Americans have relatives who support Trump.  Don't argue with them.  It won't work.  Instead, treat them with loving, patient interest.  This has to be sincere, not patronizing in any way.  You have to see them as human beings with pain.  Ask them with curiosity, and without malice or condescension,  why they think Trumpism will relieve their pain.  Here are some possible gambits.
  • "How do you know that?"
  • "Can you explain to me how that is going to work?"
  • "Can you show me the numbers, I can't seem to make that add up?"
  • "How is that better than __________?"
  • "How will this improve your life?"  "Mine?" 
  • "Why do you think you and I went off on such different paths?"
  • "Look, I'm not saying you're wrong, but it just doesn't add up for me and you're a Trump supporter so I thought you could explain it."
  • "I understand you're angry, but not why, or how Trump will make your life better. I'm just asking you to explain it."
  • "Why do you think that program will succeed when others haven't?"
  • "Is there a way that you can think of that would help us agree on what is true and what isn't? For example, how do you verify the facts?"
You get the picture.  Don't give them your facts.  Make them produce their own.  Make them spell out the details of the policies.  Don't challenge their emotions, in fact, be sympathetic.  Just ask them to explain their logic and to give support for the facts.  Remember that they are human beings who are hurting, just like you and me.

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Trump Attacked For Publicly Saying What He's Thinking; Clinton Attacked For Not Saying Things Publicly

Cue the orchestra for the chorus of "Damned if you do and damned if you don't."


ON THE TRUMP SIDE

Trump's been making Republicans uneasy because he says things that they think he should NOT say publicly.  And polls say this open talk is hurting him.

The message I get from this is:  It's ok to be a racist and misogynist as long as you don't get caught. As long as you don't say these things publicly.  How many other politicians say and do the same things, but off mic?   As long as we don't know about it, no problem.

On the other hand, many of his supporters applaud his free-wheeling tongue, saying it's a sign of transparency and it's a refreshing change from the careful spin of most politicians.    It doesn't matter that what he says is hateful and disgusting.

Now, for some (many?) of his base, probably he's saying out loud the hateful things they're thinking and saying in their closed circles.   They're delighted he's saying them in public.  It validates their thinking.

But some Republicans are cringing as if their fancy shoes can't avoid the dog doo.

And while his supporters admire his openness, they can't seem to mimic it themselves.  Take this example of twisted spin from World Net Daily:
"Mr. Donald Trump is raising the bar of America’s conscience. Apology is often the first step in correcting a wrong. Having moved for [sic]  a position of saying “I don’t need forgiveness,” Mr. Trump is now taking a second look at past behaviors; things that he’s said and done that he regrets. While he is not asking for forgiveness for being human, he is admitting that he’s made mistakes and humbly making apologies."
What's wrong with this?  Trump's raising the bar of America's conscience?  Yeah, sure.  Things he regrets?  Only if they make him look bad, not because they are bad.  What he said was a sincere apology?  How many of his advisors had to pin him down and punch him until he agreed?   There is nothing Donald Trump has publicly done in the last year or so that can be remotely described as "humbly.'  NOTHING.

And Trump's supporters are not being as open and honest as Trump is.

What she's really saying there, and it gets clearer in the rest of it (you can see it here if you must) is, "I don't really care what he says or does about anything, as long as he appoints anti-abortion judges."  That's one of the problems with extremism.  You don't have to be an extremist to dance with the devil now and then.  The US became an ally of the Soviet Union during WW II, so sometimes we have to take those kinds of positions.  But the Soviets played a huge role in the defeat of Hitler.  They delivered.  Why would anyone believe anything Trump promises?  He's only going to follow through if he gets a cut.


ON THE CLINTON SIDE

Clinton's taken a lot of heat for things she and her staffers said that they had every reason to believe were said in private conversations.  Until Russia hacked the Democratic National Committee's (DNC) server  and Wikileaks shared them with the world.

We say a lot of things in private, at work and with friends.  In fact policy debate among staffers is one of the in Freedom of Information Act exemptions (#5), so that agency staffers can speak candidly, play the devil's advocate, and test out policies that they don't really expect to pursue.  They're the kind of things a number of Republican presidents have claimed Executive Privilege to prevent being disclosed. And the DNC isn't even a government agency that would come under the Freedom of Information Act.

But Clinton's been attacked for things that she or the DNC staff never actually said in public.  Now, one could argue that Trump sex assault tape was similar, and once it's public it's fair game.  And there are some things that are inconvenient for Clinton supporters.  But I dare say if we got the same conversations that were held with the RNC, I'm confident there'd be a lot juicier quotes than what we have from the DNC.

As I've said before, I'm not 100% in agreement with Clinton.  I'm troubled by the Clinton Foundation, particularly its actions with relation to Haiti and the appearance, if not the actual fact, of it being used to sell influence.  I'm not happy with her early position on Iraq and her cosiness with Wall Street.  But there are many positions I support fully and she has the experience and the connections to make things happen.  She's had eight years to watch how Republicans obstructed Obama.  I'm betting if she gets a majority in the Senate, we're going to see a lot of legislation passed in the first two years before the 2018 election.  And she's running against Trump.

I think the saying "Damned if you do and damned if you don't" is appropriate here.  Trump gets hit for saying what he's thinking and Clinton gets hit for not saying what's been said by her party in private.  But in balance, what Trump's been saying has been so over the top, that many in the political party he hijacked are abandoning him.  Clinton's email sins are run-of-the-mill back room political strategizing.  But nothing really damning, unless you're a Republican strategist trying to find anything that might stick and to get the negative attention off Trump and onto Clinton.